From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Nothing Much
Mains level : Changes required in India's Foreign Policy
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In the coming five years, a host of geopolitical and economic issues need to be reconciled.
- Prime Minister Narendra Modi has maintained a frenetic pace, renewing contacts with world leaders ever since the results of general election 2019.
- G-20 – He was the cynosure of all eyes at the G-20 meeting in June, in Osaka.
- BRICs informal meeting – At the BRICs informal meeting, also in Osaka, he called for the strengthening of the World Trade Organisation and for a global conference on terrorism. He discussed counter-terrorism and climate change issues at separate meetings with China’s President Xi Jinping and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.
- Japan-India-U.S. trilateral grouping – He participated in the Japan-India-U.S. trilateral grouping, arguing for a “rules based order” in the Indo-Pacific region.
- He met with U.S. President Donald Trump, to discuss the future of India-U.S. relations.
- The global situation has altered.
- Rivalries among nations have intensified.
- There is virtual elimination of the middle ground in global politics, and it has become far more adversarial than at any time previously.
- Even the definition of a liberal order seems to be undergoing changes.
- Several more countries today profess support for their kind of liberalism, including Russia and China.
- At the other end, western democracy appears far less liberal today.
China, U.S. and Asian realities
1.South Asia –
- South Asia, in particular, and the region of our highest priority, according to the new External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, needs close attention.
- The region is one of the most disturbed in the world and India has little or no say in any of the outcomes taking place.
- Pakistan – India-Pakistan relations are perhaps at their lowest point.
- Afghanistan – India has no role in Afghan affairs and is also excluded from current talks involving the Taliban, the Afghan government, Pakistan, the U.S. and even Russia and China.
- India might have recouped its position more recently in the Maldives, but its position in Nepal and Sri Lanka remains tenuous.
- Across much of Asia, China is the major challenge that India has to contend with.
- BRI – Smaller countries in the region are being inveigled to participate in China’s programmes such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
- India and Bhutan are the only two countries in this region that have opted out of the BRI, and they seem like the odd men out.
- The challenge in the coming years for India is to check the slide, especially in Asia, and try and restore India to the position it held previously.
- New Cold War – Deepening India-U.S. relations today again carry the danger of India becoming involved in a new kind of Cold War.
- Not to be a paw – India must ensure that it does not become a party to the conflicts and rivalries between the U.S. and a rising China, the heightened tensions between the U.S. and Russia, and also avoid becoming a pawn in the U.S.-Iran conflict.
- National Defence Authorisation Act – There is little doubt that current India-U.S. relations provide India better access to state-of-the-art defence items; the recent passage of the National Defence Authorisation Act in the U.S. makes India virtually a non-NATO ally. However, such close identification comes with a price.
- Tensions between India and China – Closer relations with the U.S. also carries the risk of aggravating tensions between India and China, even as China and the U.S. engage in contesting every domain and are involved in intense rivalry in military matters as well as competition on technology issues.
The U.S.-China-Russia conflict –
- The U.S.-China-Russia conflict has another dimension which could affect India adversely.
- The strategic axis forged between the Mr. Putin’s Russia and Mr. Xi’s China will impact not only the U.S. but also India’s position in both Asia and Eurasia, with India being seen as increasingly aligned to the U.S. Hence, India needs to devise a policy that does not leave it isolated in the region.
Disruptive Technology domain
- Dominant power – Today, disruptive technologies have tremendous danger potential and nations that possess these technologies have the ability to become the dominant powers in the 21st and 22nd Centuries.
- Lagging Behind others – A major challenge for India will hence be how to overcome our current inadequacies in the realm of disruptive technologies rather than remaining confined to the purely military domain.
- Cyberspace – The U.S., China, Russia, Israel and few other countries dominate these spheres as also cyberspace and cyber methodologies.
- Growth in disruptive technology matrix – New policy parameters will need to be drawn up by India, and our capabilities enhanced in areas such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology and cyber methodology, all of which constitute critical elements of the disruptive technology matrix.
Focus on Economy
Notwithstanding India’s ambition to become a $5-trillion economy by 2024-25, the reality today is that the economy appears to be in a state of decline. Jobs, especially skilled jobs, are not available in sufficient numbers and this should be a matter for concern.
The looming challenge for India in the coming five years, therefore, would be how to build a strong economic foundation, one that is capable of providing the kind of power structure needed for an emerging power, and also one possessing the best liberal credentials.