Monsoon Updates

El Nino is weaker than anticipated, says IMD


Mains Paper 1: Geography | Salient features of world’s physical geography

From UPSC perspective following things are important:

Prelims level: El Nino, La Nino and IOD concepts.

Mains level: These kind of phenomenons are important for the static part of the syllabus. Expect a direct question
if already not asked


  1. What: The India Meteorological Department(IMD) is expecting better this year
  2. Why: Because El Nino would be much weaker than anticipated
  3. New monsoon forecast system: IMD has shifted to a new monsoon forecast system, called a dynamical model that works by supercomputers simulating the weather and extrapolating it(i.e. Deducing the weather by assuming that existing trends will continue)

What is El Nino?

  1. The El Nino is characterised by surface waters of the equatorial Pacific warming up by more than half a degree
  2. It is known to negativey affect monsoon rain every six out of 10 years
  3. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is said to buffer the impact of El Nino and contribute to better rains
  4. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also known as the Indian Niño. IOD is an irregular oscillation of sea-surface
    temperatures in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than the
    eastern part of the ocean
  5. The IOD is a swing in surface temperatures that turns the western Indian Ocean alternately warmer and then
    colder than the eastern part of the ocean

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