El Nino may have only a minor impact

  1. Contrary to an 8% average decline in agri output in previous El Nino years, this projected El Nino year will reduce output only by ~4.5%.
  2. Cotton will not be much impacted because of an increase in area under cultivation and long sowing periods.
  3. Majority of sugarcane is grown in irrigated areas which insulate it from El Nino effect.
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