Mains Paper 1: Geography | Important Geophysical phenomena
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Monsoon dynamics in India, Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List
Mains level: Impact of deficit monsoon
- Water deficits will increase and intensify in India in 2019, says the latest edition of Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List.
- The report is presented by IScience (US based LLC) states the findings from the latest Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM).
- ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) monitors and forecasts water anomalies on a near global basis.
- WSIM includes algorithms to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture and electricity generation.
- WSIM has been run continuously since April 2011 and has been validated against subsequent monitoring based on observed data.
Details of the Forecast
- The forecast predicts severe to exceptional surplus water for regions including Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Mizoram.
- Moderate to severe deficits were forecast for Bihar.
- From February through April, deficits in India are expected to moderate overall and some regions in the country’s eastern third will normalize.
- However, intense deficits will persist throughout Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh and along the Tungabhadra River through Karnataka.
- The forecast for the final months — May through July (2019) — indicates primarily moderate deficits in India and pockets throughout the region.
- The 12-month forecast through July 2019 indicates exceptional (greater than 40 years) water deficits in Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh.
Expected El-Nino Impact
- Though this September’s extreme heat was unrelated to El Niño which usually introduces warm dry conditions.
- El Niño is being blamed for low rainfall during the June-to-September monsoon season.
- The monsoon rain deficits have caused drought-like conditions in almost a third of Indian districts, and added stress for the farmers.
Coffee production to decline
- India’s coffee production is expected to fall to its lowest in five years due to flood damage to plantations in southern states such as Kerala and Karnataka.
- India exports about three quarters of the coffee it produces, and flood damage has been reported in all key producing areas of the country.