India may face an intense and increased water deficit in 2019

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Mains Paper 1: Geography | Important Geophysical phenomena

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Monsoon dynamics in India, Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List

Mains level: Impact of deficit monsoon


News

  • Water deficits will increase and intensify in India in 2019, says the latest edition of Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List.

About WSIM

  1. The report is presented by IScience (US based LLC) states the findings from the latest Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM).
  2. ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) monitors and forecasts water anomalies on a near global basis.
  3. WSIM includes algorithms to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture and electricity generation.
  4. WSIM has been run continuously since April 2011 and has been validated against subsequent monitoring based on observed data.

Details of the Forecast

  1. The forecast predicts severe to exceptional surplus water for regions including Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Mizoram.
  2. Moderate to severe deficits were forecast for Bihar.
  3. From February through April, deficits in India are expected to moderate overall and some regions in the country’s eastern third will normalize.
  4. However, intense deficits will persist throughout Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh and along the Tungabhadra River through Karnataka.
  5. The forecast for the final months — May through July (2019) — indicates primarily moderate deficits in India and pockets throughout the region.
  6. The 12-month forecast through July 2019 indicates exceptional (greater than 40 years) water deficits in Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh.

Expected El-Nino Impact

  1. Though this September’s extreme heat was unrelated to El Niño which usually introduces warm dry conditions.
  2. El Niño is being blamed for low rainfall during the June-to-September monsoon season.
  3. The monsoon rain deficits have caused drought-like conditions in almost a third of Indian districts, and added stress for the farmers.

Coffee production to decline

  1. India’s coffee production is expected to fall to its lowest in five years due to flood damage to plantations in southern states such as Kerala and Karnataka.
  2. India exports about three quarters of the coffee it produces, and flood damage has been reported in all key producing areas of the country.
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