From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : About the mission
Mains level : Various factors causing uncertainty in monsoon predictions
- The new monsoon model, called the Coupled Forecast Model (CFS), deployed by the IMD under the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) has failed to forecast the excess rainfall received during Aug-Sept 2019.
National Monsoon Mission (NMM)
- Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) had launched NMM in 2012 with a vision to develop a state-of-the-art dynamical prediction system for monsoon rainfall on different time scales.
- The responsibility of execution and coordination of this mission is vested to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.
- Climate Forecast System (CFS) of USA has been identified as the basic modelling system for the above purpose, as it is one of the best among the currently available coupled models.
To build an ocean atmospheric model for –
- improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale (16 days to one season) and
- improved prediction of temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events on short to medium range time scale (up to 15 days).
About Coupled Forecast Model (CFS)
- The American model called “Climate Forecast System” (CFS) is developed by National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA.
- CFS is a coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling system that combines data from ocean, atmosphere and land for providing long range forecasting (seasonal prediction of Indian Monsoon).