[op-ed snap] Smart-balancing China

Mains Paper 2: IR | India and its neighborhood- relations.

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Not much

Mains level: How to cooperate with China, and related issues

Context

The article talks about the IR issues related to China and gives some possible solutions for the same

Possible effect of the Quad Grouping on Sino-Indian relationship

The recent revival of the ‘Quadrilateral’ (or Quad) and the consequent talk of an ‘Asian NATO’ have brought the India-China rivalry back to the limelight

India should be cautious

How to ‘balance’ China will occupy a great deal of India’s strategic attention in the years ahead as China charts its heading towards superpower status
Any such strategising by India needs to be prudently thought out

How will China influence the world in future?

China’s superpower ambitions are bound to have a system-shaping impact on the Asian region
There will be China-led alliances, Chinese client states and the establishment of Chinese spheres of influence
The alleged China connection to the recent ‘regime change’ in Zimbabwe is perhaps a indicator of things to come

Main focus of China

China is ensuring that its access to overseas resources/markets and the oceanic trade routes are unhindered
In doing so, it is increasingly seeking to build military facilities overseas and offset the U.S.-led coalition in the region

Is aligning with the US not good for India?

In the big picture of Chinese grand strategy, India, seen increasingly aligned with the U.S., is a spoiler
Denying India entry into (1) the Nuclear Suppliers Group, (2) repeatedly blocking UN sanctions against Pakistan-based terrorists, (3) and ignoring India’s sensitivity over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor are outcomes of this vision(according to some experts)

Why is Sinophobia increasing in India?

For one, Chinese revisionist claims in the land and oceanic space have been a major source of concern
Beijing’s deployment of naval assets to enforce its claims across the South China Sea,
construction of artificial islands in the region
and the rejection of a UN tribunal judgment on a complaint filed by the Philippines, last year have only strengthened this feeling
China has also been increasing its naval presence, including dispatching its nuclear submarines on patrol, in the Indian Ocean
Second, along with military assertion, China has also been stepping up its political and economic footprint in the region
Third, the ever-strengthening China-Pakistan military alliance and its implications for India

Why is Quad with the US not a good idea?

There are several problems with this approach:
(1) the U.S. is a quickly-receding extra-regional power whose long-term commitment to the region is increasingly indeterminate and unsure;
(2) U.S.-China relations are far more complex than we generally assume;
(3) and Australia is caught between the U.S. and China
While India may have shed its traditional reticence about a strategic partnership with the U.S., it would still not be what Japan is to the U.S.

What should be done on military side?

Military preparedness to offset any potential Chinese aggression is something that India can and should invest in
But again, Chinese military aggression has really not been India’s central concern, but a China-dominated region in which India is surrounded
Military preparedness, in which we will inevitably lag behind China, alone cannot address such a concern

Strategy of countering China with Trade restrictions

Some have suggested that India should use its $70 billion-strong trading relationship with China as a bargaining chip to check Chinese behaviour
However, doing so would hurt both sides
While it is true that India-China bilateral trade is heavily skewed in favour of China, let’s not forget that China’s exports to India comprise under 3% of its total exports
(and India’s exports to China is 3.6% of its total exports)
Boycotting Chinese goods would also mean Indian consumers paying more to get them from elsewhere

What should be done in this situation?
First

India would be better served by adopting a more nuanced balancing strategy, a strategy of ‘smart-balancing’, towards Beijing
A strategy that involves deep engagements and carefully calibrated balancing, at the same time
First of all, it would involve co-binding China in a bilateral/regional security complex
Some efforts in this direction are already under way such as India-China joint anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden
The two countries could consider initiating regular, structured consultations in this regard
In other words, enhancing security cooperation with China is a sure way of alleviating the persistent security dilemma between them
A mutual ‘complex interdependence’ in economic, security and other domains should be strengthened and front-loaded over zero-sum competition
This security cooperation should most certainly be enhanced in the Indo-Pacific where India should talk of cooperating with China
Language is important: talk about security community and joint efforts than containing China

Second

Second, India should cooperate with and trust China while at the same time keeping Military prepared
After all, the role of military strength in guaranteeing national security cannot be underestimated

Third

Third, India’s response to China’s refusal to act against Pakistan-based terrorists needn’t be strait-laced
However, while China is unlikely to make Islamabad politically uncomfortable by public terror-shaming, the more China gets involved in Pakistan, the less it can afford to ignore terrorism within Pakistan

The way forward

India urgently needs to develop a clear vision for a stable regional security order
And work out what role India would like China to play in that vision and how it can nudge China towards that
Keeping China out of the regional security order is not realistic, letting China dominate it is not desirable: smart-balancing China within such an order is indeed the optimal strategy

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