Monsoon Updates

Scientists develop new model to determine monsoon variations across India


Mains Paper 3: Science & Technology | Developments and their applications and effects in everyday life

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

Prelims level: Agencies Involved, MLR, El Nino, Indian Ocean Dipole, Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO)

Mains level: Factors affecting Indian Monsoon and Utility of this weather model in studying them.


New model for estimating variability and trends in rainfall

  1. Scientists have developed a new model for estimating variability and trends in rainfall over different climate regions of the country
  2. The new statistical model based on multiple linear regression (MLR)
  3. It has been developed by scientists from the Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), IIT Kharagpur, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad

Complexities in Predicting Monsoon Variability

  1. Indian monsoon, both southwest and northeast is complex
  2. It depends on various climatic forcings (conditions) like El Nino, Indian Ocean Dipole, which affect rainfall in different regions, in different ways
  3. Researchers highlight that current dynamic models used for monsoon forecast face two major problems
  4. First, they respond a little too much to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
  5. Second, the relationship between Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) and summer monsoon in models has been found to be opposite to actual observation
  6. If we can improve our understanding of EQUINOO’s impact on monsoon, then we can make corrections in the dynamic model and improve our teleconnections. This will help us get an accurate monsoon forecast

Importance of this weather model

  1. The research is one of the first to have analyzed the variability of the Indian monsoon because of these factors together
  2. It confirmed with statistical analysis, that ENSO and EQUINOO are two major drivers for Indian monsoon and explain around 50% variability in monsoon
  3. Such studies would help scientists to better tune their models for accurate weather prediction
  4. The research assumes significance as the monsoon decides the livelihood of more than a billion people and influences the agrarian economy which is largely dependent on its accurate forecast

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