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  • Complexities of herd immunity

    What is herd immunity

    • The herd immunity concept is based on lowering the number of susceptible individuals.
    • If sufficient individuals in the population are immune either through vaccination or a prior exposure, then the number of susceptible individuals drops.
    • For example, if the immune population is 70%, then the susceptible population is 30%.

    Does herd immunity really protect from subsequent waves?

    • The number of daily cases depends on three factors: The number of infectious people in the population, the number of susceptible individuals, and the rate of transmission of the virus.
    • The rate of transmission is dependent on the nature of the virus and the extent of contact between individuals.
    • So, if the rate of transmission increases due to change in social behaviour and increased contact then even with a large percentage of the immune population, a significant number of daily cases can result.
    • The “herd immunity” number is not a static number but it changes depending on the rate of transmission of the virus and the extent of virus present.

    Estimating exposures in metro cities

    • Serosurveys indicated that Covid had touched 56% of population in Delhi by January; 75% in some slums Mumbai in November, and about 30% in Bengaluru in November.
    • The population touched by Covid can also be estimated by the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR).
    • This is the total number of deaths divided by the total people infected. In India, the estimate is 0.08%.
    • So this number can be used to back-calculate the number of infections based on the number of deaths in the different cities.
    • The table given below shows the number of people exposed to Covid in some metros until January 31 using the method above.

    What are the reasons behind the recent surge

    • The reasons behind the recent surge are not fully understood.
    • The one factor that is not in doubt, however, is that interaction and contact with the population has increased since February.
    • Such increased contact increased the virus in circulation and led to increased cases in the susceptible population.

  • An unquiet neighbourhood

    The article highlights the inherent difficulty in finding a solution to the two conflicts raging on in India’s neigbourhood.

    Tale of two conflicts in neighbourhood

    • Efforts to end two major conflicts in India’s neighbourhood have become intense.
    • To the west, a peace summit on Afghanistan, seeking to end decades of conflict there, was also scheduled to take place in Istanbul over the weekend.
    • To the east, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has produced a diplomatic opening with Myanmar’s military leadership.
    • Afghan conflict go back to the late 1970s; since then we have seen different phases of the conflict.
    • Although the crisis in Myanmar appears recent, the tension between civil-military relations is not new.
    • Back in 1988, the army annulled the huge mandate won by Aung San Suu Kyi and unleashed massive repression.

    3 Common Themes in the effort at peace and reconciliation

    1) Ending violence

    • The first is about ending violence.
    • In Afghanistan it has been near impossible to get a resurgent Taliban to agree to stop its attacks on government forces or the civilian population.
    • The ASEAN initiative in Myanmar calls for an immediate cessation of violence and utmost restraint from all sides.
    • The opposition demanding restoration of democracy might find this rather ironic, since it is the army that is employing violence and has shown scant restraint.

    2) Dialogue among all parties

    • The second theme in the ASEAN initiative — “constructive dialogue among all parties” to “seek a peaceful solution” — is also common to all peace processes.
    • The Taliban found all kinds of excuses to delay a dialogue with the Kabul government that it always saw as illegitimate. So far, it has avoided one.
    • In Myanmar, the army might be ready to engage the opposition in a prolonged dialogue and defuse international pressure; but it will be hard for the victims of the coup to accept a dialogue on the army’s terms.

    3) Third-party mediator

    • The Afghan conflict has long been internationalised.
    • All major powers, including regional actors and neighbours, have acquired stakes in the way the Afghan conflict is resolved.
    •  This unfortunately makes the construction of an internal settlement that much harder.
    • In Myanmar, the ASEAN has set the ball rolling by agreeing that a special envoy will be traveling to the region and will engage with all parties to the conflict.

    Cost-benefit in diplomacy

    • The US is hoping that the Taliban will moderate some of its hardline positions given its need for significant international economic assistance for reconstruction, political legitimacy.
    • In Myanmar, too, the international community will hope the military would want to avoid the risks of political isolation and economic punishment.
    • But how the Taliban and the Myanmar army calculate these costs and benefits could be very different.
    • Both have long experience of surviving external pressure and enduring sanctions.

    Conclusion

    Few civil wars have seen the kind of massive external effort to change the internal dynamics as in Afghanistan; but to no avail. In Myanmar, it is not clear how far the international community might go. The prospects for positive change in Afghanistan and Myanmar, then, do not look too bright in the near term.

  • Centre uses Disaster Management Act to restrict liquid oxygen use for non-medical purposes

    Order under Disaster Management Act 2015

    • Invoking the Disaster Management Act, the Centre ordered States that all liquid oxygen shall be made available to the government and will be used for medical purposes only.
    • The order said that under section 10(2)(I) and section 65 of the DM Act, States had to ensure that “liquid oxygen is not allowed for any non medical purpose”
    • The order was passed after the review of oxygen supply situation in the country.

    Dealing with the shortage

    • On April 22, Centre issued order under the DM Act, making the district magistrates and senior superintendent of police personally liable to allow unhindered inter-State movement of vehicles carrying medical oxygen.
    • Despite MHA’s orders and letters, States continued to flag shortage of oxygen supply.
    • Medical oxygen to States are being provided as per daily quota decided by an empowered group of officers in central ministries.

  • 27th April 2021 | Prelims Daily with Previous Year Questions

    [WpProQuiz 611]

    [WpProQuiz_toplist 611]

  • Polity Titbits: Important Governor Generals and Viceroys

     

    27th Apr 2021

    • With almost absolute power the Governor-General and viceroy played a significant role in the shaping history of the country. Following are some of these important figures and significant events and major reforms carried out by them.

              Governor Generals of                            Bengal/India

                          (Period)

      		                   Important events/Reforms

      Warren Hastings

      (1773-1785)

      Regulating Act of 1773.

      First Governor-General of Bengal.

      End of the dual system of administration (1765-1772).

      Supreme Court at Calcutta.

      Wrote Introduction to the first English translation of Gita.

      Founded Madarasa Aliya at Calcutta.

      Lord Cornwallis

      (1786-1793)

      Separation of three branches of service: commercial, judicial and revenue.

      Permanent Land Revenue Settlement of Bengal-1793.

      Reformed, modernised and rationalised the civil service.

      Introduced the Cornwallis Code.

      Sanskrit College, Varanasi.

      Lord Wellesley

      (1797-1805)

      Introduction of Subsidiary Alliance System.

      Fourth Anglo-Mysore war.

      Fort William College, Calcutta.

      Lord Hastings

      (1813-1823)

      Anglo-Nepal War-(1814-16)

      Third Anglo-Maratha War-(1817-19) and dissolution of Maratha confederacy.

      Introduction of Ryotwari System of Thomas Munro, Governor of Madras-1820.

      Lord William Bentinck

      (1828-1835)

      Charter Act of 1833.

      Abolition of Sati-1829.

      Resolution of 1835 and Education reforms and introduction of English as the official language.

      The annexation of Mysore-1831, Coorg, and Central Cachar-1831.

      Lord Dalhousie

      (1848-1856)

      Introduction of the Doctrine of Lapse and annexations of Satara-1848, Jaitpur and Sambhalpur-1849, Udaipur-1852, Jhansi-1853, Nagpur-1854 and Awadh-1856.

      Wood’s Dispatch of 1854.

      Railway Minute of 1853.

      Telegraph and Postal reforms.

      Widow Remarriage Act-1856.

      Lord Canning

      (1856-1857)

      		 Establishment of universities at Bombay, Madras and Calcutta.

      Mutiny of 1857.

             Governor-General                            and

               Viceroy of India

                      (Period)

      		                                Important events/Reforms
       Lord Canning

      (1858-1862)

      		 Transfer of control from East India Company to the Crown by the Government of India Act 1858

      Indian Councils Act-1861

      Lord Mayo

      (1869-1872)

      Opening of Rajkot College in Kathiawad and Mayo College at Ajmer for political training of Indian Princes.

      Statistical Survey of India was established.

      Department of Agriculture and Commerce was established.

      Introduction of state railways.

      Lord Lytton

      (1876-1880)

      The great famine of 1876 affecting Bombay, Madras, Mysore, Hyderabad, Central India and Punjab.

      Appointment of Famine Commission under the presidency of Richard Strachey.

      Vernacular Press Act was passed- 1878.

      The Arms Act-1878.

      Lord Ripon

      (1880-1884)

      Education Commission 1882 under William Hunter-1882.

      Ilbert Bill controversy.

      Repeal of Vernacular Press Act in 1882.

      The First Factory Act in 1881 to improve labour conditions.

      Government resolution on local self government-1882.

      Lord Dufferin

      (1884-1888)

      Establishment of Indian National Congress.

      Lord Lansdowne

      (1888-1894)

      The categorisation of civil services into imperial, provincial and subordinate.

      Indian Councils Act-1892

      Durand Commission (1893) was set up to define the Durand Line between India and Afghanistan.

      Lord Curzon

      (1899-1905)

      Police Commission (1902) was appointed under Sir Andrew Frazer.

      University Commission (1902) was appointed and Universities Act (1904) was passed.

      Department of Commerce and Industry was established.

      Calcutta Corporation Act-1899

      Partition of Bengal (1905).

      Lord Minto-II

      (1905-1910)

      Popularisation of anti-partition and Swadeshi Movements.

      Split in Indian National Congress at Surat in 1907.

      Indian Muslim League was established by Aga Khan (1907)

      Morley-Minto reforms or Indian Councils Act 1909.

      Lord Hardinge-II

      (1910-1916)

      		  Transfer of capital from Calcutta to Delhi (1911).

      Establishment of Hindu Mahasabha (1915) by Madan Mohan Malviya.
            Lord Chelmsford

      (1916-1921)

      		 Home Rule League was formed by Annie Besant and Tilak (1916)

      Lucknow session of Congress (1916).

      Lucknow Pact between Congress and Muslim League (1916).

      Champaran Satyagraha (1918), and Satyagraha at Ahmadabad (1918).

      Montague’s August Declaration.

      Government of Indian Act- 1919

      Jallianwalla Bagh massacre (1919).

      Non-Cooperation and Khilafat Movements were launched.

      Foundation of Women’s University at Poona (1916) and Saddler’s Commission was appointed for reforms in educational policy.

      Appointment of S. P. Sinha as governor of Bihar first Indian to do so.

      Lord Reading

      (1921-1926)

      The Chaura-Chauri Incident-Feb5, 1922 and withdrawal of Non-Cooperation movement.

      Moplah rebellion in Kerala (1921).

      Repeal of the Press Act of 1910 and Rowlatt Act of 1919.

      Kakori train robbery (1925)

      Establishment of Swaraj Party (1922).

      The decision to hold a simultaneous examination for ICS in Delhi and London with effect from 1923.

      Lord Irwin

      (1926-1931)

      Simon Commission-1928

      Appointment of the Harcourt Butler Indian States Commission (1927)

      Murder of Saunders and Bomb blast in the Assembly Hall of Delhi-1929

      Lahore session of Congress 1929 and Purna Swaraj Resolution.

      Dandi March (12 March, 1929) and launch of Civil Disobedience Movement.

      Lord Willingdon

      (1931-1936)

      Second Round Table Conference and failure of the conference, resumption of the Civil Disobedience Movement.

      Announcement of the Communal Award (1932).

      Poona Pact (1932)

      Third Round Table Conference 1932.

      The Government of India 1935.

      Establishment of All India Kisan Sabha 1936.

      Establishment of Congress Socialist Party by Acharya Narendra Dev and Jayaprakash Narayan (1934)

      Lord Linlithgow

      (1936-1944)

      First general elections were held and Congress attained absolute majority (1936-1937).

      Congress ministers resigned (1937) after the outbreak of WW-II

      Subhash Chandra Bose elected as the president of Congress-1938.

      Lahore Resolution by Muslim League for the demand of separate state for Muslims.

      August Offer by the viceroy-1940.

      Cripp’s Mission to India

      Passing of the Quit India Resolution by Congress-1942

      Lord Wavell

      (1944-1947)

      C Rajgopalachari’s CR Formula (1944) and Gandhi-Jinnah Talks failed.

      Wavell Plan and the Shimla Conference (1942)

      Cabinet Mission and Congress accepted its plan 1946

      Observance of the ‘Direct Action Day’ (16 August 1946) by the Muslim League.

      Elections to the Constituent Assembly and formation of Interim Government by the Congress (September 1946).

      Announcement of the end of British rule in India by Clement Attlee on February 20, 1946

      Lord Mountbatten

      (1947-48)

      		 June Third Plan (June 3, 1947) announced.

      Introduction of Indian Independence Bill in the House of Commons.

      Appointment of two boundary commissions under Sir Cyril Radcliff for the partition of Bengal and Punjab.

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  • 27 April 2021 | Nikaalo Prelims Quiz- TS 06- Science and Technology Test 1: Basic Science; New Technologies in News; Biotechnology.

    [WpProQuiz 609]

  • Covid fear and anxiety spread, cash back in favour with public

    Increase in currency with the public

    • During the fortnight ended April 9, currency with the public jumped by Rs 30,191 crore to hit a new high of Rs 27,87,941 crore.
    • In the six-week period between February 27 and April 9, currency with the public rose by Rs 52,928 crore, show RBI data.
    • Experts said the increase in currency with the public is on account of the fear of imposition of lockdowns by state or central governments.

    How currency with public is arrived at

    • According to the RBI, currency with the public is arrived at after deducting the cash with banks from the total currency in circulation.
    • Currency in circulation, which includes notes in circulation, rupee coins, and small coins, refers to cash or currency within a country that is physically used to conduct transactions between consumers and businesses.
    • It effectively means the currency that individuals across the country hold with themselves.

    M3 has gone up

    • Money supply in the economy – or M3 – has gone up over the last couple of months.
    • M3, which includes currency with public, current deposits, savings deposits, and fixed deposits, has increased by 11.3 per cent, or Rs 19.17 lakh crore, to a new high of Rs 189.07 lakh crore as on April 9, 2021.

    B2BASICS

    Measures of Money supply

    1. Reserve Money (M0): It is also known as High-Powered Money, monetary base, base money etc.
      M0 = Currency in Circulation + Bankers’ Deposits with RBI + Other deposits with RBI
      It is the monetary base of economy.
    2. Narrow Money (M1):
      M1 = Currency with public + Demand deposits with the Banking system (current account, saving account) + Other deposits with RBI
    3. M2 = M1 + Savings deposits of post office savings banks
    4. Broad Money (M3)
      M3 = M1 + Time deposits with the banking system
    5. M4 = M3 + All deposits with post office savings banks

  • Rohingya Deportation case

    The article highlights the issues with the order passed by the Supreme Court allowing the deportation of Rohingya refugees.

    Context

    • Recently, in its order in Mohammad Salimullah v. Union of India, the Supreme Court rejected an application to stay the deportation of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar.

    Principle of non-refoulement

    • The Supreme Court noted the petitioners’ reliance on a judgment of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) dated January 23, 2020, which recorded the genocidal conditions that resulted in 7.75 lakh Rohingyas being forced to take refuge in Bangladesh and India.
    • The Supreme Court relied on the word of the government that the principle of non-refoulement, or forcible repatriation to a place where the refugee’s life is in danger, applies only to signatories to the UN’s Refugee Convention of 1951 or its 1967 Protocol.
    • It must be stated that a UN Special Rapporteur was not heard, as the Court felt that serious objections had been raised to her intervention.
    • The Supreme Court accepted that the right not to be deported flows not from the right to life and liberty under Article 21, which applies to all human beings, but from the right to reside and settle in India under Article 19(1)(g), which applies to citizens alone.

    Why the judgement needs reconsideration

    1) India has recognised genocide as an international crime

    • India is a signatory to the Convention for the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (the Genocide Convention, 1948),
    • Acceding to the Convention in 1959, India has recognised genocide as an international crime, and that the principles of the Convention are “therefore already part of common law of India”.
    •  India has also ratified the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ICERD), the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) have a bearing on non-refoulement.
    • Article 6(1) of the ICCPR, which mirrors Article 21 of our Constitution.
    • A number of other UN conventions particularly those dealing with the rights of women (CEDAW) and children (CRC) also have a non-refoulment element in it and both of which have been declared by the Supreme Court to be part of our domestic legal framework.

    2) Prevention of genocide

    • The leitmotif of the Genocide Convention is prevention.
    • Prevention is also central to Article I, under which the contracting parties confirm that genocide is a crime under international law, “which they undertake to prevent and to punish”.

    3) Preemptory norm

    • It is increasingly accepted in public international law, that non-refoulement and other protections emanating from the Genocide Convention, are peremptory norms that apply to state parties as well as non-parties.
    • That non-refoulement is jus cogens, a norm from which there can be no derogation whatsoever. I
    • At least three high courts (Gujarat in 1998, Delhi in 2015, and Calcutta in 2019) have held that non-refoulement is part of the right to life and liberty protected by Article 21 of our Constitution.

    What should the Supreme Court do

    • There are two possible solutions.
    • The first is that in its interim order, the Court specifies that the Rohingya refugees may not be deported unless “the procedure prescribed for such deportation is followed”.
    • It is a long-held principle of Indian jurisprudence that the word “procedure” means “due process”, or a procedure that is just, fair, and reasonable.
    • The Supreme Court can, thus, suo motu clarify that due process requires that they not be deported as long as there exists a reasonable threat of persecution in Myanmar.
    • Alternately, since the order in question is an interim order, the Supreme Court could swiftly hear the main petition on its merits, and clarify the law on non-refoulement and Article 21. 

    Conclusion

    The order on the deportation of Rohingya refugees needs reconsideration by the Supreme Court considering the India’s treaty obligations on the genocide.

  • What the US’s recognition of killings of Armenians as genocide mean

    What is genocide

    • According to Article II of the UN Convention on Genocide of December 1948, genocide has been described as carrying out acts intended “to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group”.

    Why Armenians were targeted

    • In a way, the Armenians were victims of the great power contests of the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
    • The resentment started building up after the Russo-Turkish war of 1877-78 in which the Turks lost territories.
    • In the Treaty of Berlin, big powers dictated terms to the Ottomans, including putting pressure on Sultan Abdülhamid II to initiate reforms “in the provinces inhabited by Armenians, and to guarantee their security against the Circassians and Kurds.”
    • The Sultan saw this as a sign of strengthening ties between the Armenians and other rival countries, especially Russia.
    • Post the treaty, there were a series of attacks on Armenians by Turkish and Kurdish militias.
    • In 1908, the Young Turks wrested control from the Sultan and promised to restore imperial glory.
    • Under the Turks, the empire became more and “Turkik” and persecution against the ethnic minorities picked up.
    • In October 1914, Turkey joined the First World War on the side of Germany.
    • In the Caucasus, they fought the Russians, their primary geopolitical rival.
    • But the Ottomans suffered a catastrophic defeat in the Battle of Sarikamish by the Russians in January 1915.
    • The Turks blamed the defeat on Armenian “treachery”.

    How the killings took place

    • As the War was still waging, the Ottomans feared that Armenians in eastern Anatolia would join the Russians if they advanced into Ottoman territories.
    • First, Armenians in the Ottoman Army were executed.
    • On April 24, the Ottoman government arrested about 250 Armenian intellectuals and community leaders. Most of them were later executed.
    • The Ottoman government passed legislation to deport anyone who is a security risk.
    • Then they moved Armenians, including children, en masse to the Syrian Desert. That was a march of death.
    • Before the First World War broke out in 1914, there were 2 million Armenians in the Ottoman Empire.
    • According to a study by the University of Minnesota’s Center for Holocaust and Genocide Studies, in 1922, four years after the War, the Armenian population in the region was about 387,800.
    • This has led historians to believe that up to 1.5 million Armenians were killed during the course of the War.

    What is Turkey’s response

    • Turkey has acknowledged that atrocities were committed against Armenians, but denies it was a genocide which comes with legal implications.
    • Turkey also challenges the estimates that 1.5 million were killed.
    • The Turkish Foreign Ministry has issued a strong statement to Mr. Biden’s announcement saying it doesn’t not have “a scholarly and legal basis, nor is it supported by any evidence”.
    • Turkey has called on the U.S. President to correct the mistake of recognition as genocide.

  • [pib] PM launches distribution of e-property cards under SWAMITVA scheme

    e-Property cards under SWAMITVA scheme

    • The Prime Minister launched the distribution of e-property cards under the SWAMITVA scheme on National Panchayati Raj Day (24 April).
    • 4.09 lakh property owners were given their e-property cards on this occasion, which also marked the rolling out of the SVAMITVA scheme for implementation across the country.
    • Under the scheme, the entire village properties are surveyed by drone and property card are distributed to the owners.
    • The Scheme has infused a new confidence in the villages  as property documents remove uncertainty and reduce the chances of property disputes while protecting the poor from exploitation and corruption.
    • This eases credit possibility also.

    About SWAMITVA Scheme

    • SVAMITVA (Survey of Villages and Mapping with Improvised Technology in Village Areas) was launched by Prime Minister on 24th April 2020.
    • It is a Central Sector Scheme to promote a socio-economically empowered and self-reliant rural India.
    • The Scheme has the potential to transform rural India using modern technical tools of mapping and surveying.
    • It paves the way for using the property as a financial asset by villagers for availing loans and other financial benefits.
    • The Scheme will cover around 6.62 Lakh villages of the entire country during 2021-2025.

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