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6th April 2021 | Prelims Daily with Previous Year Questions

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Are you preparing in the right direction? Let us discuss the issues that you’re facing in your preparation.

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Thank you for registering. Sharing with you the link for Habitat, our learning platform. https://habitat.club/channel/general Attend today’s UPSC IAS discussion sessions on Op-ed and News news analysis, answer writing, and more.
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April 6, 2021
5th April 2021 | Prelims Daily with Previous Year Questions

[WpProQuiz 587]

[WpProQuiz_toplist 587]

Are you preparing in the right direction? Let us discuss the issues that you’re facing in your preparation.

Talk to senior mentors from Civilsdaily: Fill Samanvaya form for IAS 2021 and IAS 2022. We’ll call you within 24 hours for a detailed in-depth discussion.

Civilsdaily Samanvaya 1-On-1 Mentorship Form

Thank you for registering. Sharing with you the link for Habitat, our learning platform. https://habitat.club/channel/general Attend today’s UPSC IAS discussion sessions on Op-ed and News news analysis, answer writing, and more.
There was an error in form submission. Please fill the Samanvaya form again.
First Name *

Last Name *

Mobile *

Email ID *

City *

When are you planning to attempt UPSC-CSE? *

Are you preparing full time or along with the job? *

Number of Prelim Attempts till now? *

Number of Mains attempts till now? *

What is your optional subject?

Have you joined any offline or online coaching classes? *

What is your specific query? *

Are you preparing for UPSC-CSE in English? *

Lead Source *
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What is the right date and time to call you for one on one mentor-ship? *

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April 6, 2021
[Burning Issue] Development Financial Institutions (DFIs)Bill
Finance Minister has introduced the National Bank for Financing Infrastructure and Development (NaBFID) Bill 2021 in the Lok Sabha to pave way for setting up a government-owned DFI to fund infra projects.

NaBFID Bill
- The NaBFID Bill, 2021 was introduced in Lok Sabha on March 22, 2021.
- The Bill seeks to establish the National Bank for Financing Infrastructure and Development (NBFID) as the principal development financial institution (DFIs) for infrastructure financing.
Tap to read more:

National Bank for Financing Infrastructure and Development Bill, 2021

With inputs from PRS.

What are DFIs?
- The Bill describes DFI as the principal financial institution and development bank for providing and enabling infrastructure financing throughout the life cycle of the projects concerned.
- A DFI is basically an organization, either owned by the government or charitable institutions to finance infrastructure projects that are of national importance without expecting the standard commercial return.
Easy explanation:
- The government wants to create jobs and it wants to do it in a way that’s sustainable.
- One possible solution is to incentivize the private sector.
- Because when they invest in creating large infrastructure projects, it has a ripple effect on the economy. It creates new jobs. It creates productive assets. It creates value in the long run.
- However, these private entities won’t invest if they are strapped for cash.
- So in a bid to free them from such constraints, the government will set up a new financing institution that will lend long term loans at quite reasonable interest rates.
This would become the DFIs.

DFIs: A Backgrounder
- DFIs provide long-term credit for capital-intensive investments spread over a long period and low yielding rates of return, such as urban infrastructure, mining and heavy industry, and irrigation systems.
- They are different from commercial banks, which mobilize short- to medium-term deposits and lend for similar maturities to avoid a maturity mismatch (a potential cause for a bank’s liquidity and solvency).
Their inception
- In India, the first DFI was operationalized in 1948 with the setting up of the Industrial Finance Corporation (IFCI).
- Subsequently, India’s Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation (ICICI) was set up with the World Bank’s backing in 1955.
- The Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI) came into existence in 1964 to promote long-term financing for infrastructure projects and industry.
Their disbanding
- However, during the 1970-80s, DFI got discredited for mounting non-performing assets, allegedly caused by politically motivated lending and inadequate professionalism in assessing investment projects for economic, technical, and financial viability.
- Due to these factors, Narsimhan Committee (1991) recommended disbanding of the DFI, and the existing DFI were converted into commercial banks.
With the NaBFID Bill, the DFI model has made a comeback.

Why need DFIs?

The intent behind setting up a DFI is to provide long-term financing for infrastructure. India has since long time needed infra push due to various reasons:

Infra boost: Infrastructure projects are complex, capital-intensive, and have long gestation periods that often pose risks to project financiers. The scale and complexity of infrastructure projects make financing a challenge.

Banking limitations: There are difficulties in bank-led financing of infrastructure; their liability profile is not suited for financing long-term high-risk infrastructure projects.

NPA Crisis: The surge in NPAs in the banking sector, and the need to augment financing of infrastructure for kick-starting the growth cycle have led to a renewed policy attention on setting up DFIs.

Pandemic induced crisis: Covid-19 pandemic is impacting business and economy, globally. It has exacerbated inequality, the poverty gap, unemployment, and the economy’s slowing down. Thus, infrastructure building through DFIs can help in quick economic recovery.

Economic boost: The government has envisaged attaining the target of becoming a USD 5 trillion economy by 2025. However, this goal will depend on infrastructure across the country. DFI is a step in the right direction towards this goal.

Global success stories: DFIs in China, Brazil, and Singapore has been successful in both domestic and international markets.

Various challenges

(1) Sources of funds

The lack of a sustainable source of funds, however, can prove to be a serious constraint to the proposed DFIs. Subsidised credit from the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has not proved to be a sustainable source in the past.

(2) Banking Crisis

At the heart of this old idea coming back in a new shape is the banking crisis in India, which emerged as a consequence of banks trying to fulfill the funding requirements of infrastructure projects.

(3) Regulatory forbearance

There could also be need for some regulatory forbearance — the older DFIs (IDBI, ICICI) operated in an era with no regulatory norms for quite a while, save their own internal guidelines.

Way Forward

Overcoming finance hurdles
- To ensure that the proposed institution is able to finance infrastructure investment, it should be allowed to raise long-term financing from domestic and external sources.
- The DFI should be allowed to tap the pools of capital in the form of pension funds, insurance companies and mutual funds.
- The proposed DFI should also be allowed to raise long-term financing from external markets and from multilateral financial institutions.
Sound management structure
- The proposed DFI needs to have a sound management structure.
- The government’s commitment to have a professional board with 50 per cent non-executive members is a step in the right direction.
Competency
- The proposed DFI should be able to attract competencies such as those of investment professionals and other experts who are able to assess the project from the development standpoint and the risks involved.
Going beyond infra
- NABFID must also help take infrastructure beyond roads and power, because there are other crucial sectors, especially health, social and urban infrastructure (water supply, sanitation) that has more pressing needs.
- More importantly, these sectors need the benefit of private expertise and skills more than finance.
Ensuring Good Governance
- While freeing a DFI from political interference or crony lending is necessary, merely having private shareholders or professional managers on board isn’t sufficient to ensure good governance.
- This has to be backed by a robust system of external checks and balances such as supervision by RBI and proper due diligence by auditors and rating agencies.
Ensuring Ease of Doing Business
- In the past, ambitious highway and pipeline projects have been continually held up by local protests and land acquisition woes, retrospective taxes, and poor contract enforcement.
- The success of DFIs is contingent on ironing out such issues and removing on-ground impediments to the ease of doing business.
Lastly, fix the distorted demand side (grappled with twin balance sheet) before increasing supply. Any number of institutions can be launched, but cannot be expected to work miracles in a corroded system.

Conclusion

NABFID, with the support of the government, must go beyond being a provider of capital, to helping enable the return of private sector to infrastructure; else it could end up as just one more DFI in the financing spectrum.

While boosting investment in the infrastructure sector is imperative for sustained growth, the need for the hour is to resolve persistent issues in the debt market that impede long-term financing flow.

References

National Bank for Financing Infrastructure and Development Bill, 2021

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/return-of-dfis/article33794397.ece

https://www.prsindia.org/content/examining-rise-non-performing-assets-india

https://theprint.in/ilanomics/how-modi-govt-can-make-the-reborn-development-finance-institution-a-success-this-time/624370/

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/the-new-dfi-must-look-beyond-financing/article34217199.ece

https://www.livemint.com/opinion/columns/nostalgia-holds-lessons-for-new-financial-institutions-11616951998342.html
April 6, 2021
Global Gender Gap Report, 2021
India has slipped 28 places to rank 140th among 156 countries in the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report 2021, becoming the third-worst performer in South Asia.

For the 12th time, Iceland is the most gender-equal country in the world. The top 10 most gender-equal countries include Finland, Norway, New Zealand, Rwanda, Sweden, Ireland and Switzerland.

Global Gender Gap Index
- The report is annually published by the World Economic Forum (WEF).
- It benchmarks countries on their progress towards gender parity in four dimensions: Economic Participation and Opportunity, Educational Attainment, Health and Survival and Political Empowerment.
- The report aims to serve “as a compass to track progress on relative gaps between women and men on health, education, economy and politics”.
Highlights of the 2021 report

Indian prospects

According to the report, India has closed 62.5% of its gender gap to date.
- Economic participation: India’s gender gap on this dimension widened by 3% this year, leading to a 32.6% gap closed to date.
- Political empowerment: India regressed 13.5 percentage points, with a significant decline in the number of women ministers.
- Income: Further, the estimated earned income of women in India is only one-fifth of men’s, which puts the country among the bottom 10 globally on this indicator.
- Health: Discrimination against women is also reflected in the health and survival subindex statistics. With 93.7% of this gap closed to date, India ranks among the bottom five countries in this subindex.
- Violence: Wide gaps in sex ratio at birth are due to the high incidence of gender-based sex-selective practices. In addition, more than one in four women has faced intimate violence in her lifetime, the report said.
India’s neighbourhood
- In South Asia, only Pakistan and Afghanistan ranked below India.
- Among India’s neighbours, Bangladesh ranked 65, Nepal 106, Pakistan 153, Afghanistan 156, Bhutan 130 and Sri Lanka 116.
- Among regions, South Asia is the second-lowest performer on the index, with 62.3% of its overall gender gap closed.
- Within the region, a wide gulf separates the best-performing country, Bangladesh, which has closed 71.9% of its gender gap so far, from Afghanistan, which has only closed 44.4% of its gap.
- Because of its large population, India’s performance has a substantial impact on the region’s overall performance.
April 6, 2021
E-commerce policy is needed for speedy, inclusive growth
The article highlights the untapped potential of the e-commerce sector in the transformation of the Indian economy and suggests factors to take into account in the new e-commerce policy.

How pandemic contributed to the growth of e-commerce
- A celebrated McKinsey study has revealed that we have covered a ‘decade in days’ in the adoption of digital during the pandemic.
- Behavioural changes have been witnessed in most areas like work, learning, health, travel, entertainment, etc.
- But the biggest surge has been in e-commerce, both in goods and services.
Significance of the sector for India
- E-commerce is one of India’s fastest-growing sectors, for attracting FDI and creating jobs, and providing a pan-India market for lakhs of SMEs, and facilitating exports.
- India has a vibrant retail sector, bubbling with energy and a bright future.
- E-commerce can rope in lakhs of MSMEs in cross-border trade and multiply turnover and revenues enormously.
- Its role in facilitation of exports with linkages and access to overseas markets can also help inject competitiveness in our products and creating a lot of jobs and market opportunities, adding to inclusive growth.
Issues faced by the sector
- The digital interface during e-commerce processes with multiple agencies has resulted in a plethora of compliances.
- These compliances include Income Tax Act 1961, Information Technology Act 2000, Consumer Protection Act 2019, FEMA Act 2000, Competition Act 2002, Companies Act 2013, Anti-Piracy Law, GSTN, DGFT, etc.
- In addition, handling, generation and protection of humongous data is a major issue under data protection laws.
- At times, there are requirements of compliances with various local and state laws, and during exports, adherence to foreign laws, many of which could be quite complex and rigorous.
E-commerce policy to aid Inclusive growth
- Inclusive growth being an important objective of the proposed e-commerce/FDI policy, it should recognise and support new business models in both product and service segments.
- The policy should be aimed at improving consumer experience and providing gainful employment to regular and gig workers with improved earnings.
- India, in fact, is the first country to extend protections to workers including the new-age gig and platform workers, which is being viewed with interest globally.
- With the passage of the Code on Social Security 2020, policymakers have focused on financial and social security associated with employment to contemporary socio-economic realities.
- The role of platform workers amidst the pandemic has presented a strong case to attribute a more robust responsibility to platform aggregator companies and the State.
- This has cemented their role as public infrastructures who also sustain demand-driven aggregators and e-commerce platforms.
- This role of the platform workers may help in higher productivity and more sustainable employment, when many of them could potentially become mini-entrepreneurs.
- This, however, would need to be facilitated by concerned public and private institutions as also the multiple regulators in the e-commerce ecosystem.
- In an online services market place and to provide full support to regular and gig professionals rendering services on the platform, it must be imperative on the service platform to build their capacity through training, technology and access to high-quality consumables and tools.
Consider the question “Examine the role e-commerce can play in India’s pursuit of inclusive growth? What are the issues faced by the sector in India?”

Conclusion

We are in for exciting times, as we enter this decade, rightly called the ‘Techade’; 2020 has accelerated technology infusion in all segments of life and activity. The world is looking at India with expectations and we owe it to our nation.

Source: https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/e-commerce-policy-needed-for-speedy-inclusive-growth/2226729/
April 5, 2021
mentorship

April 5, 2021
Should Petroleum be brought within the ambit of GST?
The article deals with the issues of demand for the inclusion of fuel oils in the GST regime and its implications for the revenue of the states and the Centre.

How much tax we pay on petrol and diesel
- The Union and state levies put together account for roughly 55 per cent and 52 per cent of the retail price of petrol and diesel respectively.
- These work out to around 135 per cent and 116 per cent of the base prices of the two products respectively.
- The central levy on petrol and diesel works out to around 36 per cent of the retail price while the state component is around 20 per cent (diesel) to 28 per cent (petrol).
- Of the total central levies on petrol and diesel, Rs 1.40 per litre and Rs 1.80 per litre is the basic excise duty for the two fuels, and Rs 11 per litre and Rs 18 per litre is the special additional excise duty.
- Both these components form part of the divisible pool of taxes i.e. 42 per cent of which (approximately Rs 52,000 crore) goes to the states.
- The remaining portion of Rs 18 per litre in both cases is the Road and Infrastructure Cess and Rs 2.50 per litre and Rs 4 per litre is the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess which are retained by the Centre.
How other countries tax fuel oils
- Being demerit goods, fuel oils and liquor are almost universally subject to a dual levy by countries that implement any kind of VAT or GST.
- The levy is a mix of GST at a fixed percentage of the price which qualifies for credit in the value chain and a fixed amount or percentage of the price which is not creditable and is thus outside GST.
- Punitive taxes of this order are levied primarily to discourage consumption of environmentally degrading fossil fuels and to garner revenues to fund infrastructure, while the creditable component enables offsetting of taxes on basically capital inputs.
- These products are subjected to a plethora of levies like VAT, excise duty, storage levies, security levies and environmental taxes in the EU and the total incidence of such taxes ranges from around 45 per cent to 60 per cent.
- The US is an exception in these matters since it imposes taxes at rates as low as around 15 per cent.
Including fuel oils in the GST regime
- the 122nd Constitution Amendment Bill in 2014 for GST adopted the delayed choice approach.
- Under the delayed-choice approach, petroleum products would be subjected to GST with effect from such date as the council may recommend.
- Accordingly, sections 9(2) and 5(2) of the CGST/SGST Act and the IGST Act respectively, explicitly provide for levy of GST on these products with effect from such date as the Council may recommend.
- Thus, bringing the aforesaid petro-products under GST is not within the reach of the central government alone.
How much will be the loss of revenue
- A 28 per cent levy of GST on the base price would fetch around Rs 5.40 per litre on petrol and around Rs 5.45 on diesel to the central and each of the state governments.
- Contrast the above with the current yield of Rs 32.90 per litre on petrol and Rs 31.80 per litre on diesel to the Centre alone and an average of around Rs 20 per litre and Rs 15 per litre on petrol and diesel, respectively, to each of the states.
- This, however, would bring down the prices of petrol and diesel to around Rs 55 per litre.
- This would translate into a revenue loss of around Rs 3 lakh crore on account of petrol and around Rs 1.1 lakh crore on account of diesel to the Centre and the states, at current volumes.
Consider the question “What are the various levies contributing to the prices of petrol and diesel in India? Examine the rationale for the heavy taxing of these products in India.”

Conclusion

Clearly, bringing petro-products under GST would not lower fuel oil prices by itself, unless the Union and the state governments are willing to take deep cuts in their revenues.
April 5, 2021
Why forest fires break out in the spring?
Uttarakhand has witnessed over 1,000 incidents of a forest fire over the last six months, including 45 in the last 24 hours alone.

Forest fires this year
- Since the start of 2021, there has been a series of forest fires in the Himachal Pradesh, Nagaland-Manipur border, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat, including in wildlife sanctuaries.
- April-May is the season when forest fires take place in various parts of the country.
- But forest fires have been more frequent than usual in Uttarakhand and have also taken place during winter; dry soil caused by a weak monsoon is being seen as one of the causes.
As of 2019, about 21.67% of the country’s geographical area is identified as forest, according to the India State of Forest Report 2019 (ISFR) released by the Forest Survey of India (FSI). Tree cover makes up another 2.89% (95, 027 sq km).

How vulnerable are forests in Uttarakhand?
- Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh are the two states that witness the most frequent forest fires annually.
- In Uttarakhand, 24,303 sq km (over 45 per cent of the geographical area) is under forest cover.
What causes forest fires?
- Forest fires can be caused by a number of natural causes, but officials say many major fires in India are triggered mainly by human activities.
- Emerging studies link climate change to rising instances of fires globally, especially the massive fires of the Amazon forests in Brazil and in Australia in the last two years.
- Fires of longer duration, increasing intensity, higher frequency and highly inflammable nature are all being linked to climate change.
- In India, forest fires are most commonly reported during March and April, when the ground has large quantities of dry wood, logs, dead leaves, stumps, dry grass and weeds that can make forests easily go up in flames if there is a trigger.
- Under natural circumstances, extreme heat and dryness, friction created by rubbing of branches with each other also have been known to initiate fire.
Why Uttarakhand?
- In Uttarakhand, the lack of soil moisture too is being seen as a key factor. In two consecutive monsoon seasons (2019 and 2020), rainfall has been deficient by 18% and 20% of the seasonal average, respectively.
- But, forest officials say most fires are man-made, sometimes even deliberately caused.
- Even a small spark from a cigarette butt, or a carelessly discarded lit matchstick can set the fire going.
- For example, in Odisha, which saw a major fire last month in Simlipal forest, villagers are known to set dry leaves to fire in order to collect mahua flowers, which go into preparation of a local drink.
Why are forest fires difficult to control?
- The locality of the forest and access to it pose hurdles in initiating firefighting efforts.
- During peak season, shortage of staff is another challenge in dispatching firefighting teams.
- Timely mobilization of forest staff, fuel and equipment, depending on the type of fire, through the thick forests, remain challenges.
- As it is impossible to transport heavy vehicles loaded with water into the thick forests, a majority of fire dousing is initiated manually, using blowers and similar devices.
- But there have been incidents when forest fires were brought under control using helicopter services.
- Wind speed and direction play a critical role in bringing a forest fire under control. The fire often spreads in the direction of the winds and towards higher elevations.
What factors make forest fires a concern?

Forests play an important role in mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
- Carbon emission: They act as a sink, reservoir and source of carbon.
- Livelihood loss: In India, with 1.70 lakh villages in close proximity to forests (Census 2011), the livelihood of several crores of people is dependent on fuelwood, bamboo, fodder, and small timber.
- Destruction of animals’ habitat: Heat generated during the fire destroys animal habitats. Soil quality decreases with the alteration in their compositions.
- Soil degradation: Soil moisture and fertility, too, is affected. Thus forests can shrink in size. The trees that survive fire often remain stunted and growth is severely affected.
Various efforts taken
- Since 2004, the FSI developed the Forest Fire Alert System to monitor forest fires in real-time.
- In its advanced version launched in January 2019, the system now uses satellite information gathered from NASA and ISRO.
- Real-time fire information from identified fire hotspots is gathered using MODIS sensors (1km by 1km grid) and electronically transmitted to FSI.
- This information is then relayed via email at state, district, circle, division, range, beat levels. Users of this system in the locality are issued SMS alerts.
April 5, 2021
How Asian desert dust enhances Indian summer monsoon?
A new study has revealed how dust coming from the deserts in West, Central and East Asia plays an important role in the Indian Summer Monsoon.
Try this PYQ:

With reference to ‘Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)’, sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are correct?
1. IOD phenomenon is characterized by a difference in sea surface temperature between tropical Western Indian Ocean and tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean.
2. An IOD phenomenon can influence an El Nino’s impact on the monsoon.
Select the correct Option using the code given below:

(a) Only 1

(b) Only 2

(c) Both 1 and 2

(d) Neither 1 nor 2
Why study dust?
- Many studies have shown that the dust emission scheme is extremely sensitive to climate change.
- Understanding these mechanisms and effects of dust will help us understand our monsoon systems in the face of global climate change.
Impact of dust on Indian Monsoon
- Dust swarms from the desert when lifted by strong winds can absorb solar radiation and become hot.
- This can cause heating of the atmosphere, change the air pressure, wind circulation patterns, influence moisture transport and increase precipitation and rainfall.
- A strong monsoon can also transport air to West Asia and again pick up a lot of dust.
- The researchers say this is a positive feedback loop.
Role of the Iranian plateau
- Not just the dust from the Middle East, the Iranian Plateau also influences the Indian Summer Monsoon.
- The hot air over the Iranian Plateau can heat the atmosphere over the plateau, strengthen the circulation over the deserts of the Arabian Peninsula and increase dust emission from the Middle East.
- The researchers also explain how the Indian Summer Monsoon has a reverse effect and can increase the winds in West Asia to produce yet more dust.
Transported aerosols
- Deserts across the globe play important roles in monsoons.
- The dust aerosols from deserts in West China such as the Taklamakan desert and the Gobi Desert can be transported eastward to eastern China and can influence the East Asia summer monsoon.
- And in the southwest United States, we have some small deserts that influence the North African monsoon.
Anthropogenic contributions
- Some studies have found that the anthropogenic aerosols emitted from the Indian subcontinent can decrease summer monsoon precipitation.
- However, some others found that absorbing aerosols such as dust can strengthen the monsoon circulation.
Minor components
- Earlier it was believed that dust from deserts across the globe will have the same components.
- But it was found that different deserts have different chemical compositions and this can influence the dust’s properties.
- For example, dust from the Middle East has the more absorbing ability of solar radiation than dust from North Africa and this difference in absorbing ability might influence monsoon systems.
April 5, 2021
Maintaining the inflation target at 4%
On the last day of the financial year 2020-21, the Finance Ministry announced that the inflation target for the five years between April 2021 and March 2026 will remain unchanged at 4% (+/-2 %).

Inflation targeting in India
- India had switched to an inflation target-based monetary policy framework in 2015, with the 4% target kicking in from 2016-17.
- Many developed countries had adopted an inflation-rate focus as an anchor for policy formulation for interest rates rather than past fixations with metrics like the currency exchange rate or controlling money supply growth.
- Emerging economies have also been gradually adopting this approach.
Try this PYQ:

Which one of the following is not the most likely measure the Government/RBI takes to stop the slide of Indian rupee?

(a) Curbing imports of non-essential goods and promoting exports

(b) Encouraging Indian borrowers to issue rupee denominated Masala Bonds

(c) Easing conditions relating to external commercial borrowing

(d) Following an expansionary monetary policy

What is the rate of consumer price inflation?
- Moody’s Analytics recently pointed out that volatile food prices and rising oil prices had already driven India’s consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation past the 6% tolerance threshold several times in 2020.
- While inflation headwinds remain, especially with oil prices staying high, there was some speculation that the Central government may ease up on the inflation target by a percentage point or two.
- This would have given the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) more room to cut interest rates even if inflation was a tad higher.
What is the RBI’s position on this?
- The RBI had, in recent months, sought a continuance of the 4% target with the flexible tolerance limits of 2%.
- The 6% upper limit, it argued, is consistent with global experience in countries that have a large share of food items in their consumer price inflation indices.
- Accepting inflation levels beyond 6% would hurt the country’s growth prospects, the central bank had asserted.
Why should these concern consumers?
- The central bank’s monetary policy and the government’s fiscal stance may not have necessarily reacted to arrest inflation pressures even if retail price rise trends would shoot past 6%.
- As high oil prices spur retail inflation higher, the central bank is unhappy as its own credibility comes under a cloud if the target is breached.
- If the upper threshold for the inflation target were raised to 7%, the central bank may not have felt the need to seek tax cuts (yet).
- Thus, the inflation target makes the central bank a perennial champion for consumers vis-à-vis fiscal policies that, directly or indirectly, drive retail prices up.
Back2Basics:

Types of Inflation: Demand Pull, Cost Push, Stagflation, Structural Inflation, Deflation and Disinflation
April 5, 2021

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