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  • Tracking the epidemic

    This article suggests the innovative indicators for the classification of areas. Also, the need for decentralisation of science and governance is stressed. So, how could decentralisation help? What should form the basis of indicators at the local level? Such questions are answered in this article.

    States are better placed to deliver on public health

    • They are, of course, better placed to deliver on public health and welfare. They are also generally more accountable.
    • According to the recent ICMR serological sample study conducted in mid-May, barely 1 per cent of non-metropolitan India was infected.
    • Thus, as the infection spreads and eventually stabilises, there is a lot of heavy lifting that the states must do.

    The measure of prevention and containment zone

    • After lockdown,  the message of prevention and the device called containment zones are the only ways left to manage the epidemic.
    • This includes allied activities: The demarcation of the boundary, testing, treatment, tracing and quarantine.
    • Hidden inside this box of practices are the answers to questions such as: Why is Karnataka doing better than Maharashtra in terms of mortality?

    What went wrong with colour-coded zones at district levels?

    • The older colour-coded zone label, introduced by the Centre on April 14, was at the district scale.
    • That quickly became a collective punishment with little measurable benefits.
    • One consequence was that districts were unhappy with the return of migrants simply because that could change their colour.
    • The second problem was that the red-ness of a region was equated with the need for lockdowns, since that was the only visible instrument.

    Let’s explore the ward and community level base strategy

    • Well designed metrics at the ward and community scale will help the science develop.
    • They can guide the people and the administration and allow the states to compare practices and learn from each other.

    Let us see what can be achieved within this framework: Focusing on measurement

    1. Classified should include socio-economic and demographic factors

    • Any area classification must include key socio-economic and demographic determinants, for example, the density of the area, number of people in dwellings with one room or less, or the fraction of people using community toilets.
    • As we know, much of the infection is spreading within dense clusters.
    • Such metrics would indicate vulnerable areas and the limits to reduction in contact rate through policing.
    • Here, decongestion measures such as out-migration may be required.
    • This will also serve as a guide to the future of the locality or ward.

    2. Designing indicator from data collected so far

    • An important document is the Specimen Referral Form (SRF) designed by the ICMR which must be filled to undertake the PCR Corona Test.
    •  In that, the possible patient backgrounds for recommending the test, are recorded.
    •  In that, symptomatic cases with no known contact are already a large fraction of those infected.
    • This and other fields in the SRF such as age, location and symptoms, would give us substantial insights into the dynamics and severity of the disease and the efficacy of our procedures.
    • This data should be made available immediately.

    3. Measuring the risk from migrants

    • The recent inclusion of migrants in the SRF is indeed welcome.
    • This, coupled with other quarantine data in the SRF, gives us the risk from migrants to the community at large.
    • Also welcome is the setting up of a National Migrant Information System (NMIS) on the NDMA database.
    • Hopefully, we may now know the fraction of migrants who have safely reached home and the state-wise status of those who haven’t and the reasons for the same.
    • In any case, the number of infected migrants, if suitably quarantined, must be subtracted from the total number of positive cases for that area/district, for they did not arise there and they are outside the infective load in the area.
    • This will help reduce the stigma on migrants and instead put more focus on quarantine arrangements for them.

    4. Measuring preparedness

    • Ensuring that our villages and towns are prepared to meet the disease is an important objective.
    • One metric to measure preparedness is the number of beds, doctors and ambulances per 1,000.
    • This may then be compared with the active cases in the region.
    • In fact, the adverse mortality in some areas is directly correlated with the local shortage of medical care.
    • For most districts in Maharashtra, shortages would start biting at about 200 cases per day.
    • An important addition would be village-level data on the running of the local quarantine, the functioning of the PDS and availability of drinking water.

    5. Measuring the prevalence and social distance

    • Coming to prevention, the importance of masks, distance and open ventilation is still not appreciated.
    • A simple statistical metric is to measure the prevalence of masks in an area.
    • This can be done by installing cameras in suitable locations and counting people with masks.
    • Social distance measures are also amenable to indicators.
    • For example, the fraction of buses which have installed a sheet between the driver and the passengers, or recording innovative ways of ticket vending.

    The popularity of the colour-coding based on such indicators may be effective in social mobilisation.

    Social comprehension and local solution

    • Mitigation and adaptation require social comprehension and local solutions.
    • These need scientific studies by regional institutions and partnerships with civil society.
    • Creating and supporting good metrics and providing data is an important step in that direction.
    • This will not only save lives, it will reduce fear and help re-start normal life.

    Decentralisation of science and governance

    • The epidemic has underlined that publicness and decentralisation of science and governance is the only way of creating knowledge and the professional ability to solve our own problems.
    • Without this, the post-corona Indian society would be an unhappy attempt at making the old arrangement work in a degraded reality of fearful and angry people.

    Consider the question “Corona pandemic and subsequent measures to contain it has highlighted the need for decentralisation of governance. Elaborate.”

    Conclusion

    We must learn to live with the virus, but we must also find joy. Only through constant engagement and adaptation will we overcome fear and forge a new society that will sustain both life and happiness.

  • MOOC can’t be the substitute for learning in the classroom

    Massive open online courses (MOOC) could not be panacea for the problems education faces. It can’t be the replacement for the learning in the classrooms. This article highlights the issues with adoption of MOOC and why it can’t be the replacement for learning in the classrooms.

    UGC circular to adopt MOOC

    • In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the University Grants Commission had issued a circular to universities.
    • Through this circular, it encouraged them to adopt massive open online courses (MOOCs) offered on its SWAYAM platform for credit transfers in the coming semesters.
    • But the move poses a great danger.
    • But why it’s danger? Because it is also being seen as an instrument to achieve the country’s target Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) in higher education.
    • GER in higher education is envisioned to be 30% by 2021; it was 25.8% in 2017–18.

    Issues with MOOC and what classrooms offers

    • MOOC-based e-learning platforms tend to reinforce a top-down teacher-to-student directionality of learning.
    • This misses the point that teaching and learning are skills that are always in the making.
    • The teacher is after all “an intellectual midwife” who facilitates in the birth of students’ ideas and insights through engaging in critical dialogue.
    • In a conducive classroom environment, this role is often switched and the student plays intellectual midwife to the teacher’s ideas.
    • Moving to a MOOC-based degree system would rob young teachers and students of these essential lessons in teaching and learning from each other.
    • Policymakers behind the SWAYAM platform have left out courses in engineering, medicine, dental, pharmacy, nursing, architecture, agriculture, and physiotherapy on the grounds that they involve laboratory and practical work.
    • This move makes sense.
    • But it seems to suggest that the pure sciences, the arts, the social sciences, and humanities curricula are largely lecture- and theory-based, and, therefore, readily adaptable to the online platform.
    • Nothing can be farther from such a misconception.
    • Implicit in every curriculum is the tacit assumption that the classroom is a laboratory for hands-on testing of ideas, opinions, interpretations, and counterarguments.
    • A diverse and inclusive classroom is the best litmus test for any theory or insight.
    • Multidisciplinarity happens more through serendipity — when learners across disciplines bump into each other and engage in conversations.
    • Classroom and campus spaces offer the potential for solidarity in the face of discrimination, social anxiety, and stage fear, paving the way for a proliferation of voluntary associations that lie outside the realm of family, economy, and state.
    • In the absence of this physical space, teaching and learning would give way to mere content and its consumption.
    • Without a shared space to discuss and contest ideas, learning dilutes to just gathering more information.
    • This could also dilute norms of evaluation, whereby a “good lecture” might mean merely a lecture which “streams seamlessly, without buffering”. 

    Online mode: add more value to the classroom education

    • One could think of greater value-sensitive and socially just architectures and technologies that further foster classroom engagement.
    • It also makes it accessible for students of various disabilities and challenges, thereby adding more value to the existing meaning of education.
    • But public education modelled on social distancing is a functional reduction and dilution of the meaning of education.
    • It could add value only as an addendum to the classroom. 

    Consider the question “Examine the issues with wide adoption of the MOOC to address the problems education  sector in India faces.”

    Conclusion

    Such platforms must be seen only as stop-gap variants that help us get by under lockdown situations and complement classroom lectures.

  • How fuel price decontrol works — or why consumers always lose out

    India fuel prices are somewhat stagnant these days despite spikes in global crude oil prices. The key beneficiary in this subversion of price decontrol is the government. The consumer is a clear loser, alongside fuel retailing companies as well. Let’s see how.

    Do you know?

    Grade of crude oil processed in Indian refineries:  ‘Sour grade’ (Oman and Dubai average) and ‘Sweet grade’ (Brent)

    Oil and India

    • In theory, retail prices of petrol and diesel in India are linked to global crude prices.
    • There is supposed to be complete decontrol of consumer-end prices of auto fuels and others such as the aviation turbine fuel or ATF.
    • It means that if crude prices fall, as has largely been the trend since February, retails prices should come down too, and vice versa.

    So, why is there a divergence in the trends?

    • Oil price decontrol is a one-way street in India — when global prices go up, this is passed on to the consumer, who has to cough up more for every litre of fuel consumed.
    • But when the reverse happens and prices go down, the government — almost by default — slaps fresh taxes and levies to ensure that it rakes in extra revenues, even as the consumer, who should have ideally benefited by way of lower pump prices.

    How does decontrol work?

    • Price decontrol essentially offers fuel retailers such as Indian Oil, HPCL or BPCL the freedom to fix prices of petrol or diesel based on calculations of their own cost and profits.
    • Fuel price decontrol has been a step-by-step exercise, with the government freeing up prices of ATF in 2002, petrol in the year 2010 and diesel in October 2014.
    • Prior to that, the Government used to intervene in fixing the price at which the fuel retailers used to sell diesel or petrol.
    • While fuels such as domestic LPG and kerosene still are under price control, for other fuels such as petrol, diesel or ATF, the price is supposed to be reflective of the price movements of the so-called Indian basket of crude oil.

    Are India’s taxes on fuels high? Obviously, Yes!

    • On May 5, the Centre announced one of the steepest ever hikes in excise duty by Rs 13 per litre on diesel and Rs 10 per litre on petrol, following up on another round of sharp hikes in the first week of March.
    • All of this effectively cements India’s position as the country with among the highest taxes on fuel.
    • Prior to the increase in excise duty (in February 2020), the government, centre plus states was collecting around 107 per cent taxes, (Excise Duty and VAT) on the base price of petrol and 69 per cent in the case of diesel.
    • With the second revision in excise duty in May, the government is collecting around 260 per cent taxes, (Excise Duty and VAT) on the base price of petrol and 256 per cent in the case of diesel (as on 6th May 2020), according to estimates by CARE Ratings.
    • In comparison, taxes on fuels as a percentage of pump prices was around 65 per cent of the retail price in Germany and Italy, 62 per cent in the UK, 45 per cent in Japan and under 20 per cent in the US.

    Do OMCs also benefit?

    • The only entity that benefits at the consumer’s expense is the government — in fact, both the Central and state governments.
    • OMCs, interestingly, are also among the losers from the sharp downward gyrations in oil prices.
    • The problem for companies such as IOC or BPCL is that a continuous slide in fuel prices leads to the prospect of inventory losses.
    • It is a technical term for the losses incurred when crude oil prices start falling and companies that have sourced the oil at higher prices discover that the prices have tumbled by the time the product reaches the refinery.
    • Including both crude oil and products, companies such as IOC keep an inventory of about 20-50 days.

    Also read:

    [Burning Issue] Oil Prices and OPEC+

  • Sahakar Mitra Scheme

    The Union Ministry for Agriculture has launched Sahakar Mitra: Scheme on Internship Programme (SIP).

    Note: Article 19 states that the Right to form co-operative societies is a Fundamental Right and DPSP Article 43-B provides for the promotion of co-operative societies.

    Sahakar Mitra Scheme

    • The scheme is an initiative by the National Cooperative Development Corporation (NCDC), the cooperative sector development finance organization.
    • It aims to help cooperative institutions access innovative ideas of young professionals while the interns will gain experience of working in the field to be self-reliant.
    • The scheme is expected to assist cooperative institutions to access new and innovative ideas of young professionals while the interns gain experience of working in the field giving the confidence to be self-reliant.
    • Professional graduates in disciplines such as Agriculture and allied areas, IT etc. will be eligible for an internship.
    • Professionals who are pursuing or have completed their MBA degrees in Agri-business, Cooperation, Finance, International Trade, Forestry, Rural Development, Project Management etc. will also be eligible.
    • Each intern will get financial support over a 4 months internship period.

  • I-FLOWS: Mumbai Flood Management System

    Integrated Flood Warning System for Mumbai (I-FLOWS Mumbai), a state-of-the-art flood warning system has been developed for the city.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q. Urban floods in India are consequences of unplanned urbanization in India. Discuss with references to the frequent annual floods in Mumbai.

    What is IFLOWS-Mumbai?

    • IFLOWS is a monitoring and flood warning system that will be able to relay alerts of possible flood-prone areas anywhere between six to 72 hours in advance.
    • The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has developed the system with in-house expertise and coordination with the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC).
    • The system can provide all information regarding possible flood-prone areas, likely height the floodwater could attain location-wise problem areas across all 24 wards and calculate the vulnerability and risk of elements exposed to flood.
    • Mumbai is only the second city in the country after Chennai to get this system. Similar systems are being developed for Bengaluru and Kolkata.

    How will it work?

    • The primary source for the system is the amount of rainfall, but with Mumbai being a coastal city, the system also factors in tidal waves and storm tides for its flood assessments.
    • The system has provisions to capture the urban drainage within the city and predict the areas of flooding.
    • The system comprises seven modules- Data Assimilation, Flood, Inundation, Vulnerability, Risk, Dissemination Module and Decision Support System.

    Why was this system needed in Mumbai?

    • Mumbai, the financial capital of India, has been experiencing floods with increased periodicity.
    • Floods, especially the ones in 2005 and 2017, are etched in everyone’s memory.
    • Last year, post-monsoon and unseasonal rainfall as late as October, two tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea had caught authorities off guard and left a trail of destruction.
    • The flood during 26th July 2005, when the city received a rainfall of 94 cm, a 100 year high in a span of 24 hours had paralyzed the city completely.
    • Urban flooding is common in the city from June to September, resulting in the crippling of traffic, railways and airlines.
    • As preparedness for floods before they occur, the system will help in warning the citizens so that they can be prepared in advance for flooding conditions.

    Benefits

    • IFLOWS-Mumbai will enhance the resilience of the city by providing early warning for flooding, especially during high rainfall events and cyclones.
    • Using this, it will be possible to have an estimate of the flood inundation three days in advance, along with immediate weather updates.
    • The Union Minister said the system was “one of the most advanced” ones and will help the city, which has been experiencing floods with increasing periodicity.
    • The hi-tech system will predict floods before they occur, therefore enabling Mumbaikars to take due precautions in advance.

  • FSSAI Food Safety Index for 2019-20

    The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) has recently released its Food Safety report for 2019-20.

    Food safety has been in news this year quite frequent. Do make a note of following – Recommended Dietary Allowance (RDA), Red Octagon, Eat Right Movement, Food Safety Mitra etc.

    The Food Safety Index

    • The index ranks states on five parameters of food safety: human resources and institutional data, compliance, food testing facility, training and capacity building besides consumer empowerment.
    • This is the second index on food safety, which FSSAI released on the occasion of World Food Safety Day with the theme “Food Safety is everyone’s business”.
    • It was dedicated to those in the supply chain who have ensured the uninterrupted availability of safe food during this COVID-19 pandemic.

    Highlights of the report

    • Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra have topped an index that ranked states ensuring food safety in 2019-20.
    • Among the smaller states, Goa came first followed by Manipur and Meghalaya.
    • Among UTs, Chandigarh, Delhi and the Andaman Islands secured top ranks.

    Back2Basics: Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI)

    • The FSSAI is an autonomous body established under the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Government of India.
    • It has been established under the Food Safety and Standards Act, 2006 which is a consolidating statute related to food safety and regulation in India.
    • It is responsible for protecting and promoting public health through the regulation and supervision of food safety.
    • It is headed by a non-executive Chairperson, appointed by the Central Government, either holding or has held the position of not below the rank of Secretary to the Government of India.

  • [Burning Issue] Tropical Cyclones and India

     

    WMO has applauded the India Meteorological Department’s forecast and updates on super cyclone Amphan as “best practice” as the weather office made a series of predictions that correctly anticipated the path of the cyclone and the associated wind speed.

    The Indian subcontinent is one of the worst affected regions in the world. The subcontinent with a long coastline of 8041 kilometres is exposed to nearly 10 per cent of the world’s tropical cyclones. Of these, the majority of have their initial genesis over the Bay of Bengal and strike the East coast of India. On an average, five to six tropical cyclones form every year, of which two or three could be severe. More cyclones occur in the Bay of Bengal than the Arabian Sea and the ratio is approximately 4:1. Cyclones occur frequently on both the coasts (the West coast – Arabian Sea; and the East coast – Bay of Bengal).

    Context

    The Indian Ocean has made its mark on the global news cycle this year.  The year 2019 was one of the most active North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons on record. There were eight cyclonic storms in and around India—the highest number of cyclones in a single year since 1976.  With Amphan and Nisarga, the year 2020 is also on the same line. The Arabian Sea, usually not known to be prone to cyclones, has had four major cyclones in a few months.

    What are Tropical Cyclones?

    A Tropical cyclone is an intense circular storm that originates over warm tropical oceans and is characterized by low atmospheric pressure, high winds, and heavy rain.

    • Cyclones are formed over slightly warm ocean waters. The temperature of the top layer of the sea, up to a depth of about 60 meters, need to be at least 28°C to support the formation of a cyclone.
    • This explains why the April-May and October-December periods are conducive for cyclones.
    • Then, the low level of air above the waters needs to have an ‘anticlockwise’ rotation (in the northern hemisphere; clockwise in the southern hemisphere).
    • During these periods, there is an ITCZ in the Bay of Bengal whose southern boundary experiences winds from west to east, while the northern boundary has winds flowing east to west.
    • Once formed, cyclones in this area usually move northwest. As it travels over the sea, the cyclone gathers more moist air from the warm sea which adds to its heft.

    Destruction caused by Cyclones

    Cyclones are disastrous in many ways. They do more harm than any good to the coastal areas.

    1) Strong Winds

    • Cyclones are known to cause severe damage to infrastructure through high-speed winds.
    • Very strong winds which accompany a cyclonic storm damages installations, dwellings, communications systems, trees etc., resulting in loss of life and property.

    2) Torrential rains and inland flooding

    • Torrential rainfall (more than 30 cm/hour) associated with cyclones is another major cause of damages. Unabated rain gives rise to unprecedented floods.
    • Heavy rainfall from a cyclone is usually spread over a wide area and cause large scale soil erosion and weakening of embankments.

    3) Storm Surge

    • A Storm surge can be defined as an abnormal rise of sea level near the coast caused by a severe tropical cyclone.
    • As a result of which seawater inundates low lying areas of coastal regions drowning human beings and life stock.
    • It causes eroding beaches and embankments, destroys vegetation and leads to the reduction of soil fertility.

    Some (unexpected) benefits

    Although Tropical cyclones are known for destruction they cause, when they strike they also bestow certain benefits to the climatic conditions of that area such as

    • Relieve drought conditions
    • Carry heat and energy away from the tropics and transport it towards temperate latitudes
    • Maintain a relatively stable and warm temperature worldwide

    Management of Cyclones in India

    In 2005, the country introduced new laws to set up what’s called the National Disaster Management Authority, a central agency charged with one thing: responding to and minimizing the impact of disasters.

    A year later, in 2006, India established a National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), a specialized corps of highly trained men and women focused on disasters such as cyclones and earthquakes. It’s now comprised of almost 25,000 personnel.

    Apart from institutional measures, there are many structural and non-structural measures  that have been taken for effective disaster management of cyclones:

    • The structural measures include construction of cyclone shelters, construction of cyclone-resistant buildings, road links, culverts, bridges, canals, drains, saline embankments, surface water tanks, communication and power transmission networks etc.
    • Non-structural measures like early warning dissemination systems, management of coastal zones, awareness generation and disaster risk management and capacity building of all the stakeholders involved.
    • These measures are being adopted and tackled on State to State basis under National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP) being implemented through World Bank Assistance.

    Issues in cyclone mitigation

    • Post than pre focus: Disaster management in India is largely confined to post-disaster relief works. It is more about management than loss prevention.
    • Population: One-third of the population in India lives in the coastal area. Most of them are marginalized people who are ill-prepared and unable to cope up with a disaster.
    • Poor response: The warning of a cyclone is not properly communicated between the concerned agencies. In many cases, the warning is not taken seriously by the agencies which cause delayed effort for the prevention of a disaster. This was evident in the recent Ockhi cyclone disaster.
    • Lack of awareness: among people about the impact and magnitude of the disaster. Also what to act during and post disasters.
    • Coordination Issues:There is also a lack of coordination between the local communities for search and rescue missions. Also poor coordination state and center coordination and its agencies.

    What measures need to be taken for mitigation?

    Pre Disaster

    • Provide cyclone forecasting, tracking and warning systems
    • Construction of cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant buildings, road links, bridges, canals, drains etc.
    • Establishing Early Warning Dissemination System (EWDS) and Capacity building for coastal communities.

    During disaster

    • Cautionary advice should be put out on social platforms urging people to stay safe
    • The perception of people decides the intensity of the disaster. If people take necessary proactive steps to deal with disaster then even the severe disaster can be dealt with minimum damage.
    • Delivery of food and health care via mobile hospitals, with priorities to women child & elders.
    • Protection of the community and their evacuation and quicker response.

    Post-disaster

    • It is vital that the learning from each event is shared nationally, and the capacity of officials and communities to manage disasters built continuously.
    • Among the securities available to individuals in many countries is insurance against property losses. Viable policies should be made available in India too.
    • Providing alternative means of communication, energy and transport just after the disaster.

    Odisha’s success in handling Cyclones

    • In the year 1999, Odisha faced a super cyclone which took almost 15000 lives. Since then, it started to build a robust disaster management system priority basis.
    • As the extremely severe cyclone Amphan inched closer, the Odisha government rolled up its sleeves and took all precautionary measures, including the evacuation of the people to meet its zero causality target.
    • Just as the IMD issued the warning, the Odisha government began its cyclone preparations which included evacuation, movement of people in low-lying areas and kutcha houses to cyclone shelters, safeguarding Rabi crops in mandis, deployment of ODRAF, NDRF teams, among other measures.

    Let’s learn from Odisha success Model

    1. Build a relief infrastructure

    • Until 1999, Odisha didn’t have a well laid out plan for disaster management. Two months after the cyclone hit, the Odisha State Disaster Management Authority was set up, and plans put in place.
    • Around 900 cyclone shelters have been built in vulnerable pockets of the state, with systems in place for the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people.

    2. Accurate early warning systems

    • The IMD has built an effective service to predict accurate timings of cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal and when it will make landfall along India’s coastline.
    • This early warning system enables the state to be disaster-ready and to minimize the loss of lives. It’s then crucial that people follow the protocols in place when the warnings come in.

    3. Clear communication plan

    • Roughly 2.6 m text messages were sent to locals in the clear language before cyclone Fani hit, keeping those potentially affected alert.
    • Regular press briefings were made by officials to update people of the approaching cyclone.
    • People were repeatedly advised over all forms of media not to panic and given clear “do and don’ts”. This helped in the record evacuation of 1.2 m people to safe buildings.

    4. Effective co-ordination of groups

    • Preparations to fight the onslaught should involve a number of government agencies, as well as local community groups and volunteers working together.
    • The government’s disaster response forces were pre-positioned in vulnerable locations, food packets for air-dropping were made ready for air force helicopters to drop to people.

    5. Protecting natural defenses

    • Mangroves as usual acted as a natural shield against the impact of cyclones and floods on the coastal areas.
    • Activists have been fighting for the cause of natural protectors like mangroves and salt pans even as flooding incidents regularly occur in the coastal region.

    India in line with Sendai Framework

    Preparedness to manage disaster risks is a continuous and integrated process resulting from a wide range of risk reduction activities. The preparedness not only involves coordinated planning, and reduces duplication of disaster response efforts but also increases the overall effectiveness of such efforts.

    • The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction is the first major agreement of the post-2015 development agenda, with seven targets and four priorities for action.
    • It is a 15-year; voluntary, non-binding agreement that recognizes that the state has the primary role to reduce disaster risk but that responsibility should be shared with other stakeholders including the local government, the private sector, and other stakeholders.
    • In cyclone disasters (like Amphan, Fani), India presented a good example of its disaster preparedness and compliance to the Sendai Framework.
    • Zero casualty policy and the pinpoint accuracy of the IMD’s early warning system helped to reduce the possibility of deaths.

    Way Forward

    • India’s improved and timely forecast for cyclones gives the government opportunity and time to prepare and manage.
    • Better linkages between sectoral ministries and national disaster management authorities needed in countries when it comes to assessing disaster risks.
    • It is important to acknowledge the problem beyond disaster management framing and should be framed as an adaptation need.
    • Now the imperative for India is not only to have infrastructure that is resilient, functional and that can bounce back after a disaster, but also to have infrastructure withstand and be operational during a crisis.
    • For this India need to employ more technology, strict following of command structure, and most importantly the participation and cooperation of local communities in the affected area.

     

    Conclusion

    With the advent of climate change, tropical cyclones are not going ‘anywhere’, rather they are poised to become more frequent and accompanied by increased intensity. Regardless of state support and administrative help, people themselves have to step up to create local solutions using their own practices.

    In this regard, it is necessary to find ways to prevent the cyclones from becoming an unmanageable national disaster.

     

    References

    https://ncrmp.gov.in/cyclones-their-impact-in-india/

    https://vikaspedia.in/social-welfare/disaster-management-1/natural-disasters/cyclones

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/what-are-tropical-cyclones-and-super-cyclones/article31657893.ece

    https://scroll.in/article/963805/lessons-from-cyclones-amphan-and-nisarga-for-indias-disaster-management-plan

    https://ndma.gov.in/en/2013-05-03-08-06-02/disaster/natural-disaster/cyclones.html

    https://theconversation.com/indias-cyclone-fani-recovery-offers-the-world-lessons-in-disaster-preparedness-116870

    https://india.mongabay.com/2020/06/leverage-improved-forecast-to-deal-with-disasters/

    https://www.preventionweb.net/educational/view/5482

  • AWE Is Back – Enrollments Open for the Months of June and July

    Dear students,

    AWE Program took a break for a few months so that you all can get back on the drawing boards and revise for the UPSC Civil Services Prelims 2020. Well, the AWE Program is back! 

    We request all students to renew their subscription for the upcoming months. Let’s keep the momentum going. 

    We are working hard to make the program more featureful, highlight the best answers, show the competency levels of students.

    Bi-Monthly Rs. 2600 + taxes: Click2Join

    For more information on how the program proceeds, click here –

    https://www.civilsdaily.com/answer-writing-enhancement/

  • A case for quiet diplomacy to resolve standoff

    Apart from the recent one, there had been several stand-offs between India and China over the border issue. The use of quiet diplomacy to diffuse the situation underlies all these stand-offs. However, politicisation of stand-off could make the situation difficult to resolve. This article explains the use of quiet diplomacy and problems posed by the politicisation of the stand-offs.

    Process to diffuse tension began but not at all points

    •  Both sides have agreed on a broad plan to defuse four of the five points of discord.
    • The situation at the fifth, Pangong Lake remains uncertain as also in Galwan valley and north Sikkim.
    • At Pangong Tso, the Chinese have entrenched their positions with tents and remain on India’s side of the LAC.
    • There is a major point of difference which will not be easy to resolve.

    Let’s look into the strategy used by India in the past to resolve stand-offs

    • The pattern of resolution of past stand-offs underlines the key role played by quiet diplomacy in unlocking complicated stand-off situations.
    • Both the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) governments have followed an approach that has coupled quiet diplomacy with a strong military posture, while at the same time allowing the adversary a way out.
    • This has been the broad strategy in dealing with challenges from China across the LAC.
    • And this strategy has generally worked.

    Let’s look into three specific incidents

    1) 2013-Depsang plains

    • In 2013, when Chinese troops pitched tents on India’s side of the LAC on the Depsang plains, similar to Pangong Tso.
    • The UPA government was under fire, both for being weak on China and for its reticence.
    • While the government was being publicly attacked for doing nothing, it had privately conveyed to China that if the stand-off didn’t end, an upcoming visit by Premier Li Keqiang would be off.
    • If that demand had been made public at the time, China would have only dug in its heels, even if the government may have won the headlines of the day.

    2) Chumar stand-off

    • The government adopted a similar strategy during the 2014 stand-off at Chumar, which coincided with President Xi Jinping’s visit to India.
    • Mr. Xi’s visit went ahead, while India quietly but forcefully stopped the Chinese road-building and deployed 2,500 soldiers, outnumbering the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
    • The PLA withdrew.
    • Both sides disengaged and followed a moratorium into patrolling into contested areas, which was observed for many months thereafter.

    Ultimately, in both cases, the objective was achieved. China, faced with firm resistance, was prevented from changing the status quo.

    3) Doklam stand-off in 2017

    • In 2017, the government came under particularly intense fire because it stayed studiously silent through a 72-day stand-off at Doklam.
    • Indian troops crossed over into Bhutan to stop a Chinese road construction on territory India sees as Bhutanese but China claims.
    • By extending the road, India argued, China was unilaterally altering the India-Bhutan-China trijunction.
    • Beijing demanded an unconditional withdrawal.
    • When both finally disengaged, neither divulged the terms.
    • It would later emerge that the deal struck involved India withdrawing first.
    • China then stopped construction, and the status quo at the face-off site was restored.

    Stand-off politics in the country

    • Politics over border stand-offs is not new.
    •  The Opposition and the media are certainly right to hold the government to account.
    • Indeed, neither the Opposition nor the media would be doing its job if they weren’t.
    • The tensions on the LAC are neither the first nor likely to be the last.
    • With every incident, they are, however, getting increasingly politicised in an environment where there is a 24/7 demand on social media for information — and unprecedented capacity for disinformation.
    • Rather than wish away this reality — and adopt a stand that it is above questioning — the government needs to come to terms with it. 

    Dealing with the politicisation of stand-offs

    •  First, it needs to keep the Opposition informed, which it is clear it hasn’t.
    • Second, it needs to proactively engage with the media, even if that may be through low-key engagement as was the case on June 9, that does not escalate into a public war of words.
    • At the same time, expectations of having a public debate about the intricacies of every border stand-off — or for the Prime Minister to weigh in even while negotiations are ongoing — need to be tempered.
    • This will only risk inflaming tensions, and reduce the wiggle room for both sides to find an off-ramp.
    • The broader objective shouldn’t get lost in political debates.
    • That objective is to ensure India’s security interests remain protected — and that the status quo on India’s borders isn’t changed by force.

    Consider the question “Border issue between India and China has several times resulted in the stand-off between the two countries but the use of quiet diplomacy helped defuse the tension. But the politicisation of such issue could complicate the situation in the future. Comment.

    Conclusion

    • Past incidents have shown that quiet diplomacy, coupled with strong military resolve that deters any Chinese misadventures, has been more effective than public sabre-rattling, even if we may be inhabiting a media environment that misconstrues loudness as strength, and silence as weakness.

  • Migrants and COVID

    In this Article, we highlight some facts about migration in India, summarize key relief measures announced by the government and directives issued by the Supreme Court for the migrant population in relation to the lockdown.
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    Reference source: https://www.prsindia.org/theprsblog/migration-india-and-impact-lockdown-migrants

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