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GS Paper: GS2-19.Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.

  • Cooperative security in Persian Gulf littoral and Implications for India

    This article analyses the security environment in the Gulf countries. Their common characteristic as being the oil producers and similarity in their social and security problems are also explained in detail in this article. And all this has implications for India. So, what are the implications? Read to know…

    Let’s look at the importance of countries surrounding Persian Gulf

    • The United Nations defines this body of water as the Persian Gulf.
    • The lands around it are shared by eight countries: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
    • All are the members of the UN.
    • There is a commonality of interest among them in being major producers of crude oil and natural gas.
    • And thereby contribute critically to the global economy and to their own prosperity.
    • This has added to their geopolitical significance.
    • At the same time, turbulence has often characterised their inter se political relations.
    Arab Countries surrounding Persian Gulf

    Power play and security of the region

    • For eight decades prior to 1970, this body of water was a closely guarded British lake, administered in good measure by imperial civil servants from India.
    • When that era ended, regional players sought to assert themselves.
    • Imperatives of rivalry and cooperation became evident and, as a United States State Department report put it in 1973, ‘The upshot of all these cross currents is that the logic of Saudi-Iranian cooperation is being undercut by psychological, nationalistic, and prestige factors, which are likely to persist for a long time.’
    • The Nixon and the Carter Doctrines were the logical outcomes to ensure American hegemony.
    • An early effort for collective security, attempted in a conference in Muscat in 1975, was thwarted by Baathist Iraq.
    • The Iranian Revolution put an end to the Twin Pillar approach and disturbed the strategic balance.
    • The Iraq-Iran War enhanced U.S. interests and role.
    • Many moons and much bloodshed later, it was left to the Security Council through Resolution 598 (1987) to explore ‘measures to enhance the security and stability in the region’.

    Gulf regional security framework: Some questions

    • Any framework for stability and security thus needs to answer a set of questions:
    • Security for whom, by whom, against whom, for what purpose?
    • Is the requirement in local, regional or global terms?
    • Does it require an extra-regional agency?
    • Given the historical context, one recalls a Saudi scholar’s remark in the 1990s that ‘Gulf regional security was an external issue long before it was an issue among the Gulf States themselves.’

    What should be the ingredients of a  regional security framework?

    • The essential ingredients of such a framework would thus be to ensure: 1) conditions of peace and stability in individual littoral states; 2) freedom to all states of the Gulf littoral to exploit their hydrocarbon and other natural resources and export them; 3) freedom of commercial shipping in international waters of the Persian Gulf 4)freedom of access to, and outlet from, Gulf waters through the Strait of Hormuz; 5) prevention of conflict that may impinge on the freedom of trade and shipping and 6)prevention of emergence of conditions that may impinge on any of these considerations.
    • Could such a framework be self-sustaining or require external guarantees for its operational success?
    • If the latter, what should its parameters be?

    Misunderstanding the role great powers can play

    • Statesmen often confuse great power with total power and great responsibility with total responsibility.
    • The war in Iraq and its aftermath testify to it.
    • The U.S. effort to ‘contain’ the Iranian revolutionary forces, supplemented by the effort of the Arab states of the littoral (except Iraq)  GCC initially met with success in some functional fields and a lack of it in its wider objectives.

    The turbulent nature of US-Iran relations

    • In the meantime, geopolitical factors and conflicts elsewhere in the West Asian region — Yemen, Syria, Libya — aggravated global and regional relationships.
    • And it hampered a modus vivendi in U.S.-Iran relations that was to be premised on the multilateral agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme agreed to by western powers and the Obama Administration.
    • But it was disowned by U.S. President Donald Trump whose strident policies have taken the region to the brink of armed conflict.

    Perception of declining U.S. commitment to sub-regional security

    • Perceptions of declining U.S. commitment to sub-regional security have been articulated in recent months amid hints of changing priorities.
    • This is reported to have caused disquiet in some, perhaps all, members of the GCC, the hub of whose security concern remains pivoted on an Iranian threat (political and ideological rather than territorial).
    • And American insurance to deter it based on a convergence of interests in which oil, trade, arms purchases, etc have a role along with wider U.S. regional and global determinants.
    • It is evident that a common GCC threat perception has not evolved over time.
    • It has been hampered by the emergence of conflicting tactical and strategic interests and subjective considerations.
    • The current divisions within the organisation are therefore here to stay.
    • These have been aggravated by 1)the global economic crisis, 2) the immediate and longer term impact of COVID-19 on regional economies, 3) the problems in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), 4) and the decline in oil prices.

    Let’s look at the emerging trends in the region

    • One credible assessment suggests that in the emerging shape of the region.
    • 1) Saudi Arabia is a fading power.
    • 2) UAE, Qatar and Iran are emerging as the new regional leaders.
    • 3) Oman and Iraq will have to struggle to retain their sovereign identities.
    • 4)The GCC is effectively ended, and OPEC is becoming irrelevant as oil policy moves to a tripartite global condominium.
    • None of this will necessarily happen overnight and external intervention could interfere in unexpected ways.
    • But it is fair to say that the Persian Gulf as we have known for at least three generations is in the midst of a fundamental transformation.

    Improvement relations between Arab states and Iran

    • With the Arab League entombed and the GCC on life-support system, the Arab states of this sub-region are left to individual devices to explore working arrangements with Iraq and Iran.
    • The imperatives for these are different but movement on both is discernible.
    • With Iran in particular and notwithstanding the animosities of the past, pragmatic approaches of recent months seem to bear fruit.
    • Oman has always kept its lines of communication with Iran open.
    • Kuwait and Qatar had done likewise but in a quieter vein.
    • And now the UAE has initiated pragmatic arrangements.
    • These could set the stage for a wider dialogue.
    • Both Iran and the GCC states would benefit from a formal commitment to an arrangement incorporating the six points listed above.
    • So would every outside nation that has trading and economic interests in the Gulf. This could be sanctified by a global convention.
    • Record shows that the alternative of exclusive security arrangements promotes armament drives, enhances insecurity and aggravates regional tensions.
    • It unavoidably opens the door for Great Power interference.

    Ties with India and impact on its strategic interests

    • Locating the Persian Gulf littoral with reference to India is an exercise in geography and history.
    • The distance from Mumbai to Basra is 1,526 nautical miles and Bander Abbas and Dubai are in a radius of 1,000 nautical miles.
    • The bilateral relationship, economic and political, with the GCC has blossomed in recent years.
    • The governments are India-friendly and Indian-friendly and appreciate the benefits of a wide-ranging relationship.
    • This is well reflected in the bilateral trade of around $121 billion and remittances of $49 billion from a workforce of over nine million.
    • GCC suppliers account for around 34% of our crude imports and national oil companies in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi are partners in a $44 billion investment in the giant Ratnagiri oil refinery.
    • In addition, Saudi Aramco is reported to take a 20% stake in Reliance oil-to-chemicals business.
    • The current adverse impact of the pandemic on our economic relations with the GCC countries has now become a matter of concern.

    India’s relationship with Iran

    • The relationship with Iran, the complex at all times and more so recently on account of overt American pressure, has economic potential and geopolitical relevance on account of its actual or alleged role in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
    • Iran also neighbours Turkey and some countries of Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea region.
    • Its size, politico-technological potential and economic resources, cannot be wished away, regionally and globally, but can be harnessed for wider good.

    Consider the question “Stability and security of the Persian Gulf region has wider consequences for Indians strategic concerns. Comment.”

    Conclusion

    Indian interests would be best served if this stability is ensured through cooperative security since the alternative — of competitive security options — cannot ensure durable peace.

  • A chill in US-China relations and India as a collateral damage

    Even before the covid pandemic we could sense the rising tension between the U.S. and China. However, pandemic proved to be the tipping point. This article explains the role the U.S. played in China’s rise. And its recent acceptance under Donald Trump of not so peaceful rise of China.

    Let’s look into recent announcements on China by the US President

    •  On May 29, the Trump administration said it would revoke Hong Kong’s special trade status under U.S. law.
    • It passed an order limiting the entry of certain Chinese graduate students and researchers who may have ties to the People’s Liberation Army.
    • The U.S. President has also ordered financial regulators to closely examine Chinese firms listed in U.S. stock markets.
    • And warned those that do not comply with U.S. laws could be delisted.

    So, what all these measures indicate?

    • These announcements are a clear indication that the competition between the U.S. and China is likely to sharpen in the post-COVID world.

    U.S. is complicit in China’s rise, but how?

    •  After the Chinese communists seized power, the Americans hoped to cohabit with Mao Zedong in a world under U.S. hegemony.
    • The Chinese allowed them to believe this and extracted their price.
    • U.S. President Richard Nixon gave China the international acceptability it craved in return for being admitted to Mao’s presence in 1972.
    • President Jimmy Carter terminated diplomatic relations with Taiwan in order to normalise relations with China in 1978.
    • President George H.W. Bush washed away the sins of Tiananmen in 1989 for ephemeral geopolitical gain.
    • And Bill Clinton, who as a presidential candidate had criticised Bush for indulging the Chinese, proceeded as President to usher the country into the World Trade Organization at the expense of American business.
    • All American administrations since the 1960s have been complicit in China’s rise in the unrealised hope that it will become a ‘responsible stakeholder’ under Pax Americana.

    China is creating its own universe

    • The collapse of the Soviet Union reinforced the view that the U.S. wants to keep its order and change China’s system.
    • This strengthened China’s resolve to resist by creating its own parallel universe.
    • China is building an alternate trading system: the Belt and Road Initiative.
    • A multilateral banking system under its control-Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, New Development Bank.
    • Its own global positioning system BeiDou.
    • Digital payment platforms like WeChat Pay and Alipay.
    • A world-class digital network-Huawei 5G.
    • Cutting-edge technological processes in sunrise industries.
    • And a modern military force.
    • It is doing this under the noses of the Americans and some of it with the financial and technological resources of the West.

    U.S. accepting the uneasy fact that China’s rise has not been peaceful

    • It is only under Mr. Trump that the Americans are finally acknowledging the uneasy fact that the Chinese are not graven in their image.
    • He has called China out on trade practices.
    • He has called China out on 5G.
    • It was Mr. Trump’s 2017 National Security Strategy document that, perhaps for the first time, clubbed China along with Russia as a challenge to American power, influence and interests.
    • His recent China-specific restrictions on trade and legal migration are, possibly, only the beginning of a serious re-adjustment.

    Decoupling of the economies and new cold war

    • A full-spectrum debate on China is now raging across the U.S.
    • Former White House Chief of Staff Steve Bannon declared that the U.S. is already at war with China.
    • Others like diplomat Richard Haass and former president of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, warn that a new Cold War will be a mistake.
    • Scholar Julian Gewirtz, in his brilliant essay, ‘The Chinese Reassessment of Interdependence’, talks about a similar process underway in Beijing.
    • Both sides are acutely aware how closely their economies are tied together: from farm to factory, the U.S. is heavily dependent on supply chains in China and the Chinese have been unable to break free of the dollar.
    • If Mr. Trump’s wish is to disentangle China’s supply chains, Mr. Xi is equally determined to escape from the U.S. ‘chokehold’ on technology.
    • To what extent the de-coupling is possible is yet to be determined.
    • But one thing is inevitable, India will become part of the collateral damage.

    Hong Kong: Sign of U.S. China rivalry entering in ideological domain

    • Will Hong Kong become a game-changer in the post-COVID world?
    • China’s decision to enact the new national security law for Hong Kong has been condemned in unison by the U.S. and its Western allies as an assault on human freedoms.

    Why is this significant?

    • The points of divergence, even dispute, between them have so far been in the material realm.
    • With Hong Kong, the U.S.-China rivalry may, possibly, be entering the ideological domain.
    • For some time now there are reports about Chinese interference in the internal affairs of democracies.
    • Countries in the West have tackled this individually, always mindful of not jeopardising their trade with China.
    • Hong Kong may be different.
    • It is not only a bastion for Western capitalism in the East, but more importantly the torch-bearer of Western democratic ideals.
    • Think of it as a sort of Statue of Liberty; it holds aloft the torch of freedom and democracy for all those who pass through Hong Kong en route to China.
    • This is an assault on beliefs, so to speak.

    Issue of China’s role in Covid-19 pandemic

    • These is growing demands that China should come clean on its errors of omission in the early days of COVID-19.
    • In the months ahead, more information may become public, from sources inside China itself, about the shortcomings of the regime.
    • That will further fuel a debate on the superiority of the Chinese Model as an alternative to democracy.

    Will this form the ideological underpinning for the birth of a new Cold War?

    • That will depend on who wins in Washington in November.
    • It will also depend on whether profit will again trump politics in Europe.
    • Moreover, how skilfully the Wolf Warriors of China can manipulate global public opinion will also make the be an important factor.

    Consider the question-“Various recent measures by the U.S. on China and the debate on the role of China in Covid-19 makes it clear that the next Cold War is all but imminent. And India has to be careful to avoid being collateral damage in that war. Comment.”

    Conclusion

    The lines are beginning to be drawn between the Americans on the one side and China on the other. A binary choice is likely to test to the limit India’s capacity to maintain strategic and decisional autonomy.

  • What is Antifa Movement?

    As massive protests following the death of a person in racial discrimination continued to rock the US, President Donald Trump has announced that the alleged far-left group Antifa would be designated as a terrorist organisation by his government.

    One can expect a similar prelims question:

    Q. The Antifa movement recently seen in news is an: Free trade movement/Anti-terror movement etc.

    Why the US seeks to ban Antifa?

    • Trump has blamed for the protests that have convulsed cities across the US,
    • Antifa is considered the loosely affiliated group of far-left anti-fascist activists.

    Antifa: The group

    • Antifa is an acronym for ‘Anti-Fascist’. It is not an organisation with a leader nor does it have a defined structure or membership roles.
    • Antifa has been around for several decades, though accounts vary on its exact beginnings.
    • The term dates the term as far back as Nazi Germany, describing the etymology of ‘Antifa’ as “borrowed from German Antifa, short for antifaschistische ‘anti-fascist’.
    • Rather, Antifa is more of a movement of activists whose followers share a philosophy and tactics.
    • They have made their presence known at protests, including the “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017.

    Its members

    • It is impossible to know how many people count themselves as members.
    • Its followers acknowledge that the movement is secretive, has no official leaders and is organised into autonomous local cells.
    • It is also only one in a constellation of activist movements that have come together in the past few years to oppose the far right.
    • Antifa members campaign against actions they view as authoritarian, homophobic, racist or xenophobic.

    Activism over years

    • Antifa members typically dress in black and often wear a mask at their demonstrations, and follow far-left ideologies such as anti-capitalism.
    • The movement has been known to have a presence in the US in the 1980s.
    • It shot into prominence following the election of President Trump in 2016, with violence marking some of its protests and demonstrations.
    • Criticizing mainstream liberal politicians for not doing enough, Antifa members have often physically confronted their conservative opponents on the streets.
    • The group also participates in non-violent protests. Apart from public counter-protests, Antifa members run websites that track white extremist and ultra-right groups.

    Criticisms

    • The movement has been widely criticised among the mainstream left and right.
    • Conservative publications and politicians routinely rail against supporters of Antifa, who they say are seeking to shut down peaceful expression of conservative views.

  • China and the Rhineland moment in Hong Kong

    While the world is busy battling pandemic, China has embarked upon completing its pet project: stripping Hong Kong off its special status. This article explains the significance of China’s actions. And the options the U.S. could explore as a response to China’s move.

    Tipping points in History

    • In 1911 Germany sparked an international crisis when it sent a gunboat into the Moroccan port of Agadir.
    • Winston Churchill wrote in his history of the First World War, “all the alarm bells throughout Europe began immediately to quiver.”
    • In 1936 Germany provoked another crisis when it marched troops into the Rhineland, in flagrant breach of its treaty obligations.
    • In 1946, the Soviet Union made it obvious it had no intention of honoring democratic principles in Central Europe, and Churchill was left to warn that “an iron curtain has descended across the Continent.”

    Analogies: Not perfect, but not inapt, either.

    • Analogies between these past episodes and China’s decision this week to draft a new national security law on Hong Kong aren’t perfect.
    • First, Hong Kong is a Chinese port, not a faraway foreign one.
    • Second, Hong Kong’s people have ferociously resisted Beijing’s efforts to impose control, unlike the Rhineland Germans who welcomed Berlin’s.
    • And lastly, the curtailment of freedom that awaits Hong Kong is nothing like the totalitarian tyranny that Joseph Stalin imposed on Warsaw, Budapest and other cities.
    • But the analogies aren’t inapt, either.
    • Beijing has spent the better part of 20 years subverting its promises to preserve Hong Kong’s democratic institutions.
    • Now it is moving to quash what remains of the city’s civic freedoms through a forthcoming law that allows the government to punish speech as subversion and protest as sedition.
    • The concept of “one country, two systems,” was supposed to last at least until 2047 under the terms of the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration.
    • Now China’s rulers have been openly violating that treaty, much as Germany openly violated the treaties of Locarno and Versailles.

    Rethink of the U.S. strategic approach to China

    • US administration has undertaken a sober rethink of it’s strategic approach to China.
    • The outlines of which are described in a new inter-agency document quietly released by the White House last week.
    • Gone from this new vision are the platitudes about encouraging China’s “peaceful rise” as a “responsible stakeholder” in a “rules-based order.”
    • Instead, Beijing is described, accurately, as a habitual and aggressive violator of that order.
    • It also describes China as a domestic tyrant, international bully and economic bandit that systematically robs companies of their intellectual property, countries of their sovereign authorities, and its own people of their natural rights.
    • A critic might note that this description of China’s behavior sounds a lot like Trump’s.
    • Sort of, except that the comparison trivializes the scale of China’s abuses and neglects the breadth and longevity of its challenge.

    Why Now and what is the US response?

    • Beijing almost certainly chose this moment to strike because it calculated that a world straining under the weight of a pandemic and a depression lacked the will and attention to react.
    • On Friday, Trump said he would strip Hong Kong of its privileged commercial and legal ties to the U.S.
    • Issue with the move: That punishes the people of Hong Kong at least as much as it does their rulers in Beijing.

    What’s a better course for the U.S.? A few ideas:

    • Sanction Chinese officials engaged in human-rights abuses in Hong Kong under the Global Magnitsky Act.
    • Upgrade relations with Taiwan and increase arms sales, including top-shelf weapons’ systems such as the F-35 and the Navy’s future frigate.
    • Re-enter the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)agreement as a counter to China’s economic influence.
    • Publicly press all G-7 countries to stop doing business with telecom-giant Huawei as a meaningful response to the Hong Kong law.
    • Give every Hong Kong person an opportunity to easily obtain a U.S. residency card, even a passport.

    Conclusion

    If all this and more were announced now, it might persuade Beijing to pull back from the brink. In the meantime, think of this as  Rhineland moment with China — and remember what happened the last time the free world looked aggression in the eye, and blinked

  • Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Nile and Various Issues

    Africa’s longest river, the Nile, has been at the centre of a decade-long complex dispute involving several countries in the continent who are dependent on the river’s waters. At the forefront of this dispute, however, are Ethiopia and Egypt.

    Note: You never know when UPSC might switch map based questions away from the Middle East and SE Asia.

    Considering this news, the UPSC may ask a prelim question based on the countries swept by River Nile/ various dams constructed/ landlocked countries in the African continent etc.

    Grand Ethiopian Rennaissance Dam (GERD)

     

    • GERD is a gravity dam on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia that has been under construction since 2011.
    • At 6.45 gigawatts, the dam will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa when completed, as well as the seventh-largest in the world.
    • Once completed, the reservoir could take anywhere between 5 and 15 years to fill with water, depending on hydrologic conditions during the filling period and agreements reached between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt.

    Issues with the Dam

    • While the main waterways of the Nile run through Uganda, South Sudan, Sudan and Egypt, its drainage basin runs through other countries in East Africa, including Ethiopia.
    • Egypt has objected to the construction of this dam and in Sudan has found itself caught in the midst of this conflict.
    • Due to the importance of the Nile as a necessary water source in the region, observers are concerned that this dispute may evolve into a full-fledged conflict between the two nations.
    • The US has stepped in to mediate.

    How can this lead to conflict?

    • The mega project may just allow the country to control the river’s waters, and this is essentially what concerns Egypt because it lies downstream.
    • Egypt has objected to these plans and has proposed a longer timeline for the project because it does not want the water level of the Nile to dramatically drop as the reservoir fills with water in the initial stages.
    • For the past four years, triparty talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have been unable to reach agreements. Egypt isn’t alone in its concerns.
    • Sudan is hardly a passive observer caught in the conflict just because of its location.
    • It too believes Ethiopia having control over the river through the dam may affect its own water supplies.

    Why does Ethiopia want this dam?

    • Ethiopia believes this dam will generate approximately 6,000 megawatts of electricity when it is done.
    • 65% of Ethiopia’s population suffers due to lack of access to electricity.
    • This dam will reduce those shortages and help the country’s manufacturing industry.
    • The country may also be able to supply electricity to neighbouring nations and earn some revenue in exchange.
    • Neighbouring countries like Kenya, Sudan, Eritrea and South Sudan also suffer from electricity shortages.
    • If Ethiopia sells electricity to these nations, they may also reap benefits.

    What is happening now?

    • In the latest developments on this front, Egypt announced that it is willing to resume negotiations with Ethiopia and Sudan concerning the dam.
    • Ethiopia has however proceeded with the first stage of filling the dam saying that it does not need Egypt’s permission to fill the dam.
    • In the letter to the UNSC, Egypt also implied that the dam would cause armed conflict between the two countries.

    Back2Basics: River Nile

    • The Nile is a major north-flowing river in northeastern Africa.
    • It is the longest river in Africa and the disputed longest river in the world as the Brazilian government says that the Amazon River is longer than the Nile.
    • The Nile is about 6,650 km long and its drainage basin covers eleven countries: Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan, Republic of Sudan, and Egypt.
    • In particular, the Nile is the primary water source of Egypt and Sudan.
    • The Nile has two major tributaries – the White Nile and the Blue Nile. The White Nile is considered to be the headwaters and primary stream of the Nile itself.

  • Israel swears in ‘Unity Government’

    Israel’s Parliament swore in its new unity government led by PM Netanyahu and his former rival Benny Gantz, ending the longest political crisis in their nation’s history.

    The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question.  Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:

    Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:

    a) Central Asia
    b) Middle East
    c) South-East Asia
    d) Central Africa

    What is a Unity Government?

    • A national unity government, government of national unity (GNU), or national union government is a broad coalition government consisting of all parties (or all major parties) in the legislature.
    • Such a coalition is usually formed during a time of war or another national emergency.
    • A general coalition government is a form of government in which political parties cooperate, reducing the dominance of any one party within that “coalition”.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q. Discuss the role and significance of Leader of Opposition and the Opposition Party and their constructive criticism in a Parliamentary form of government.

    What is the Israeli deal?

    • Israel’s unity government starts work amid the coronavirus pandemic and after a political crisis that saw three inconclusive elections and left the country in political limbo for more than 500 days.
    • The coalition government was agreed last month between veteran right-wing leader Netanyahu and the centrist Gantz, a former army chief.
    • The incoming government has aimed to apply Israeli sovereignty over West Bank settlements.
    • The govt. now aims to push on with controversial plans to annex large parts of the occupied West Bank.

    Significance

    • Netanyahu said that it’s time to apply the Israeli law and write another glorious chapter in the history of Zionism citing the issue of Jewish settlements in the occupied Palestinian territory.
    • Such a move is seen likely to cause international uproar and inflame tensions in the West Bank.
    • The region is home to nearly three million Palestinians and some 400,000 Israelis living in settlements considered illegal under international law.

    Back2Basics

    West Bank Annexation plans

    U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss plans to annex parts of the West Bank.

    The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question.  Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:

    Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:

    a) Central Asia
    b) Middle East
    c) South-East Asia
    d) Central Africa

    Where is West Bank Located?

    • The West Bank is located to the west of the Jordan River.
    • It is a patch of land about one and a half times the size of Goa, was captured by Jordan after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
    • Israel snatched it back during the Six-Day War of 1967 and has occupied it ever since.
    • It is a landlocked territory, bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the south, west, and north.
    • Following the Oslo Accords between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) during the 1990s, part of the West Bank came under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
    • With varying levels of autonomy, the Palestinian Authority controls close to 40 percent of West Bank today, while the rest is controlled by Israel.

    Back2Basics: Gaza Strip

    • The Gaza Strip is a small boot-shaped territory along the Mediterranean coast between Egypt and Israel.
    • A couple of years later in 2007, Hamas, an anti-Israel military group, took over Gaza Strip. The militia group is often involved in violent clashes with the Israeli Defence Forces.
    • While Palestine has staked claim to both territories — West Bank and Gaza Strip — Israel’s objective has been to keep expanding Jewish settlements in these regions.

  • Are the U.S. and China entering a new Cold War?

    Relations between the U.S. and China plunged to a new low in recent weeks. Ties between the two countries had started deteriorating well before the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q. How will economic nationalism take a lead in the post-COVID-19 Asia? Discuss in context to the rising tensions between the US and China.

    Heading for a new Cold War

    • The US President has recently threatened to “cut off the whole relationship” with China over the COVID-19 pandemic, which originated in Wuhan.
    • Earlier this month, the U.S. imposed visa restrictions on the Chinese journalists working in the country, limiting their work period to 90 days.
    • Last week, Trump extended for one more year a ban on U.S. companies from using telecom equipment made by “companies positing national security risks” (Huawei and ZTE row).

    A new national policy

    • The rising tensions between the two superpowers have prompted many experts to warn of a new Cold War.
    • A chorus of American voices now argues that confronting China should become the organizing principle of U.S. foreign policy, akin to the Cold War against the Soviet Union.
    • Hawks in the Trump administration openly push for a more aggressive approach towards Beijing.
    • In 2017, the US’s National Security Strategy called China as “a revisionist power” seeking “to erode American security and prosperity” and “shape a world antithetical to U.S. values and interests”.

    Why is the US confronting China?

    • Competition rules the relationship, and flexibility and mature handling are in short supply on both sides.
    • Uncertainty prevails, whether it on the question of resolving trade problems, or on the maritime front in the East and South China Seas, on technology, or on mutual mud-slinging on COVID-19-related issues.
    • Record high temperatures have been recorded in Sino-U.S. relations in recent years and the pandemic is no exception to this.
    • COVID-19 appears to have aggravated the crisis, pushing both countries, already reeling under trade, technology and maritime disputes, to take a more hostile position towards each other.

    How has China responded?

    • China has frequently urged the United States to abandon its Cold-War mentality and zero-sum game mindset.
    • It has sometimes through the state-run media, hit back, calling Trump’s comments “lunacy” and Mike Pompeo, the U.S. Secretary of State, an “evil politician”.

    A reminder of the ‘Novikov telegram’

    • In early April, China’s Ministry of State Security sent an internal report to the country’s top leaders, stating that hostility in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak could tip relations with the U.S. into a confrontation.
    • Intelligence community sees the report as China’s version of the ‘Novikov Telegram’, referring to a report Nikolai Novikov, the Soviet Ambassador in Washington, sent to Moscow in September 1946.
    • Laying out his analysis of the U.S. conduct, the report, sent to Russia said that the U.S. is determined on world domination and suggested the Soviet Union create a buffer in Eastern Europe.
    • Novikov telegram was a response to the “Long Telegram”, the 8,000-word report sent by George Kennan, an official at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, to Washington.
    • It said that the Soviet Union was heavily armed and determined to spread communism, and peaceful coexistence was impossible.
    • Historians often trace the origins of the Cold War to these telegrams.

    Nationalist overdrive in US

    • The current crisis in relations clearly shows that tensions will not go away. This situation is unlikely to ease until the U.S. Presidential election.
    • Post-election, temperatures could decrease, but a deep-rooted antipathy towards China has gripped the popular and political imagination in the U.S.
    • In China, the leadership and public opinion are both on a nationalist overdrive and the Trump administration is seen as the prime antagonist.

    Relevance with the Cold War

    • There are similarities between the current crisis and the Cold War.
    • The political elites of both China and the U.S., like the Soviet Union and the U.S. back then, see each other as their main rivals.
    • We can also see this antagonism moving from the political elite to the popular perception — the targeting of ethnic Chinese professionals and others in the U.S. and of American individuals or entities in China is a case in point.

    Conclusion

    • We don’t see the kind of proxy conflicts between the U.S. and China which we did during the Cold War.
    • The world is also not bipolar any more. There are third parties such as the EU, Russia, India and Japan.
    • These parties increasingly have a choice whether or not to align with either power as they see fit and on a case by case basis.
    • This leads to a very different kind of international order than during the Cold War.

    Challenges ahead

    • The Cold War was out and out ideological between the communist and capitalist blocs.
    • For China, a country ruled by a communist party where the primary goal of all state apparatus is preserving the regime in power, it’s always been ideological.
    • The U.S. has started realizing this angle about China now. The Republican Party has ideological worldviews, too.
    • If Trump gets re-elected, the ideological underpinnings of the U.S.-China rivalry could get further solidified.

    Back2Basics: Cold War

    • During World War II, the United States and the Soviet Union fought together as allies against the Axis powers.
    • However, the relationship between the two nations was a tense one.
    • Americans had long been wary of Soviet Communism and concerned about Russian leader Joseph Stalin’s tyrannical rule of his own country.
    • For their part, the Soviets resented the Americans’ decades-long refusal to treat the USSR as a legitimate part of the international community as well as their delayed entry into World War II, which resulted in the deaths of tens of millions of Russians.
    • After the war ended, these grievances ripened into an overwhelming sense of mutual distrust and enmity.

  • Seven trends in the geopolitics of the world

    The article examines 7 trends that have been emerging in the global order for quite some time now. The corona crisis has only accentuated these trends. So, what are these trends? read to know more.

    1. The rise of Asia

    • The first trend which became clear in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis is the rise of Asia.
    • Economic historians pointed to its inevitability, recalling that till the 18th century, Asia accounted for half the global GDP.
    • The Industrial Revolution accompanied by European naval expansion and colonialism contributed to the rise of the West, and now the balance is being restored.
    • The 2008 financial crisis showed the resilience of Asian economies.
    • And even today, economic forecasts indicate that out of the G-20 countries, only China and India are likely to register economic growth during 2020.
    • Asian countries have also demonstrated greater agility in tackling the pandemic compared to the United States and Europe.
    • This is not limited to China but a number of other Asian states have shown greater responsiveness and more effective state capacity.
    • Consequently, Asian economies will recover faster than those in the West.

    2. Decline of the US

    • The second trend is the retreat of the U.S.after a century of being in the forefront of shaping the global order.
    • The U.S. played a decisive role in shaping the world, from the World Wars to the leadership of the western world during the Cold War, molding global responses to threats posed by terrorism or proliferation or climate change.
    • But recent examples show that interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq have become quagmires that have sapped domestic political will and resources.
    • President Donald Trump called for “America first” and during the current crisis, the U.S.’s efforts at cornering supplies of scarce medical equipment and medicines and acquiring biotech companies engaged in research and development in allied states, shows that this may mean “America alone”.
    • Moreover, even as countries were losing trust in the U.S.’s leadership, its mishandling at the home of the pandemic indicates that countries are also losing trust in the U.S.’s competence.

    3. Weakening unity of the EU

    • A third trend is the European Union’s continuing preoccupation with internal challenges.
    • This internal disruption is generated three factors: 1) EU’s expansion of membership to include East European states 2) Impact of the financial crisis among the Eurozone members 3) Ongoing Brexit negotiations.
    • Threat perceptions vary between old Europe and new Europe making it increasingly difficult to reach agreement on political matters e.g. relations with Russia and China.
    • Rising populism has given greater voice to Euro-sceptics and permitted some EU members to espouse the virtues of “illiberal democracy”.
    • Adding to this is the North-South divide within the Eurozone.
    • This divide was seen when austerity measures were imposed on Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal a decade ago by the European Central Bank.
    • These austerity measures were persuaded by the fiscally conservative Austria, Germany and the Netherlands.
    • The EU lacked solidarity when Italy was battling the pandemic alone.
    • Further damage was done when Italy was denied medical equipment by its EU neighbours who introduced export controls.
    • Schengen visa or free-border movement has already become a victim to the pandemic.
    • The EU will need considerable soul searching to rediscover the limits of free movement of goods, services, capital and people, the underlying theme of the European experiment of shared sovereignty.

    4. Rise of China

    • China’s growing economic role has been visible since it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.
    • Its more assertive posture has taken shape under President Xi Jinping’s leadership with the call that a rejuvenated China is now ready to assume global responsibilities.
    • In recent years, the U.S.-China relationship moved from cooperation to competition; and now with trade and technology wars, it is moving steadily to confrontation.
    • A partial economic de-coupling had begun and will gather greater momentum.
    • The Belt and Road Initiative involves investing trillions of dollars in infrastructure building as a kind of pre-emptive move against any U.S. attempts at containment.
    • Even if Mr Xi’s leadership comes under questioning, it may soften some aggressive policy edges but the confrontational rivalry with the U.S. will remain.

    5. Failure of multinational institutions

    • With COVID-19, international and multilateral bodies are nowhere on the scene.
    • The World Health Organisation (WHO) was the natural candidate to lead global efforts against the health crisis but it has become a victim of politics.
    • The UN Security Council (UNSC), the G-7 and the G-20 are paralysed when the world faces the worst recession since 1929.
    • The reality is that these institutions were always subjected to big power politics.
    • During the Cold War, U.S.-Soviet rivalry blocked the UNSC on many sensitive issues and now with major power rivalry returning, finds itself paralysed again.
    • Agencies such as WHO have lost autonomy over the decades as their regular budgets shrank.
    • Budget constraints forced them to increasingly rely on voluntary contributions sourced largely from western countries and foundations.
    • The absence of a multilateral response today highlights the long-felt need for reform of these bodies but this cannot happen without collective global leadership.

    6. The oil prices

    • The two trends were changing energy markets: 1)Growing interest in renewables and green technologies on account of climate change concerns. 2) The U.S. emerging as a major energy producer.
    • Now, a looming economic recession and depressed oil prices will exacerbate internal tensions in West Asian countries which are solely dependent on oil revenues.

    7. Stability of West Asia

    • Long-standing rivalries in the region have often led to local conflicts but can now create political instability in countries where regime structures are fragile.

    Consider the question “The Corona crisis contributed to speeding the failure of a global order which had been faltering before the pandemic afflicted the world. Examine the trends that have been accentuated by the pandemic.”

    Conclusion

    The vaccine may end the corona crisis when it comes, but the unfolding trends in the geopolitics have been altering the world even before the corona crisis and continue to do so after a pandemic is over.

     

  • Opportunity for India in changing global order

    The world is going through a transition phase. We are experiencing the rise of new powers and the decline of the old. India has to navigate its path through this changing order keeping its interests in mind. The double opportunity in current scenario for India is explained in the article. To know more about it, continue reading.

    The changing global stage

    • The world today is fragmenting and slowing down economically.
    • Asia-Pacific is the new economic and political centre of the world with the rise of China, India and other powers — Indonesia, South Korea, Iran, Vietnam.
    • Rapid shifts in the balance of power in the region have led to arms races and the US’s “America First” attitude has led to rising uncertainty.
    • China-U.S. strategic contention is growing, uninhibited so far by their economic co-dependence.
    • As China seeks primacy in a world so far dominated by the U.S., the world faces a destabilising power transition which may or may not be completed.

    What should India’s response be to the new situation?

    Alliance with the US?

    • Many experts advocate that India should enter into an alliance with the U.S in the wake of rising China.
    • But India is much greater and more resilient than these people think.
    • Also, the aim of foreign and security policies of India has been the pursuit of strategic autonomy for India.
    • Thus, in the present situation, India should retain the above initiative and not get entangled in others’ quarrels. (i.e. the US-China quarrel)
    • Also, India should focus on pursuing its own national interest in this disorganized and uncertain world by creative diplomacy and flexibility.
    • An alliance seems to be exactly the wrong answer.

    China challenge

    • One way to handle China could be to see whether the two countries can evolve a new modus vivendi.
    • This new modus vivendi shall replace the one that was formalised in the 1988 Rajiv Gandhi visit.
    • The old framework is no longer working and the signs of stress in the relationship are everywhere.
    • The more India rises, the more it must expect Chinese opposition.
    • So, India will have to work with other powers to ensure that its interests are protected in the neighbourhood, the region and the world.
    • The complexity of India-China relations suggests there is a scope for new modus vivendi.
    • This would require a high-level strategic dialogue between the two sides about their core interests, red lines, differences and areas of convergence.

    What India can do to keep the region multi-polar?

    • As U.S. is withdrawing from the world, it will no longer be the upholder of international, economic and political order.
    • There is uncertainty over how the US will choose to deal with China.
    • India must work with other powers to ensure that this region stays multi-polar and that China behaves responsibly.

    Double opportunity for India

    • 1. Opportunity in the US-China contention
    • US-China contention will continue in future. Hence, both China and the U.S. will look to put other conflicts (eg: conflicts with India on trade or border issue) and tensions on the back burner.
    • This effect is already perceptible in the Wuhan meeting between China’s President Xi Jinping and Mr. Modi in early 2018.
    • And the apparent truce and dialing back of rhetoric by both India and China.
    • 2. Opportunity to Change national security Structures
    • Today, India is more dependent on the outside world than ever before.
    • It relies on the world for energy, technology, essential goods like fertilizer and coal, commodities, access to markets, and capital.
    • Adding the new security agenda and the contested global commons in outer and cyberspace and the high seas to India’s traditional state-centred security concerns gives India a sense of insecurity.
    • So, India needs to adapt to the changes and avoid imitating China.

    Consider the question-“The global order is experiencing geopolitical churn, new powers are rising and older are staring at the decline. In such a scenario, examine the opportunities India can explore in the context of the US-China contention”.

    Conclusion

    India risks missing the bus to becoming a developed country if it continues business and politics as usual. The most important improvement that India needs to make concerns its national security structures and their work — introducing flexibility into India’s thinking and India’s structures. For change is the only certainty in life.

  • Global crisis and opportunities for India

    Multilateralism has been on the decline for some time now.  The corona pandemic has acted like a catalyst to heightene this crisis. China’s role in weaponising the interdependence of multilateralism would have far-reaching consequences to the world as we know it. Yet, the crisis presents India with some unique opportunities. What are these opportunities? How can we save multilateralism? or do we even need to? These questions and such other issues are discussed in the article.

    The basic Idea

    • Multilateralism has its benefits like to reduce the further spread of the virus, to develop effective medical treatments, and to curtail the worst effects of the inevitable recession- cooperation among nations will be necessary.
    • But the very foundation of multilateralism is shaking today. Hence, the need of the hour is a meaningful fix.
    • The US faces multiple internal challenges like the divisive Presidential election in November and China is facing a global crisis of credibility.
    • Thus, India is uniquely positioned to help resuscitate multilateralism.
    • New Delhi can assume leadership in strengthening constructive transnational cooperation.
    • India may also help China: Through mediation to temper what is increasingly seen as Beijing’s unilateralist revisionism; revive the promise of the gradual socialisation of China into the international system; and its acceptance of the norms and rules that regulate the principal multilateral institutions.

    So, when did the crisis of multilateralism start?

    • The malaise that afflicts multilateralism is not new.
    • 1) The paralysis of all three functions of the World Trade Organization (WTO) — negotiation, dispute settlement, and transparency — was one sign of that deep-rooted malaise.
    • 2) The severely dented credibility of the World Health Organization (WHO) is just another more recent indicator.
    • The pandemic has heightened the crisis of multilateralism, not created it.
    • Pandemic has highlighted the misuse of international institutions (like WHO) and multilateralism is incapable of dealing with it.

    Weaponisation of the global supply chain by China

    • Post-war multilateral system was based on the idea of peace and prosperity.
    • It was expected that economic inter-mingling among various countries would lead to peace.
    • Most of the countries of were democratic and countries with a different system of governance were not part of this system.
    • Our multinational institutions were not designed to handle the situation in which one country starts misusing its dominant position in interdependence (ex. global supply chains).
    • The misuse of existing loopholes within the existing rules by China to gain an unfair advantage in trade relations was already attracting critique in the last years.
    • China has been accused of forced technology requirements, intellectual property rights violations, and subsidies.
    • But the pandemic has provided us with some even more alarming illustrations of how damaging the weaponisation of global supply chains can be.

    Examples of China weaponising interdependence

    • When India complained that test kits imported from China were faulty, China slammed it for “irresponsible” behaviour.
    • When Australia indicated that it would conduct an independent investigation of China’s early handling of the epidemic, China threatened it with economic consequences.
    • Several actors, including the EU and India, were alarmed at the prospects of predatory takeovers of their companies by China.

    Against this background, repeated calls by heads of governments and international organisations urging countries to remain committed to multilateralism ring hollow.

    So, what are remedies to save multilateralism?

    • 1. Policies with renewed commitment
    • There is the need for reassurance and policies that reflect a renewed commitment to the raison d’étre of multilateralism.
    • A “retreating” United States must demonstrate that it remains committed to strengthening global supply chains.
    • Global supply chains must be based on the promise of ensuring global stability and the attendant promise of peace and prosperity.
    • 2. Strategic separation of value chains
    • There is an urgent need for some strategic decoupling, handled smartly in cooperation with other like-minded countries.
    • It will undoubtedly cause considerable disruption to existing global value chains.
    • We will be less prosperous. But we will also be more secure.
    • 3. Closer integration with some distancing from others
    • A multilateralism that recognises the need for decoupling will necessitate closer cooperation with some and distancing from others.
    • Membership of such renewed multilateral institutions would not be universal.
    • Rather, one would limit deep integration to countries with which one shares values — such as pluralism, democracy, liberalism, animal welfare rights, and more.

    Opportunities for India

    • India is a country whose pluralism, democracy and liberalism have often been underestimated by the West.
    • As some constituencies in the West seek a gradual decoupling from China, they would be well served to look toward India.
    • To make use of the opportunities, for itself and for the provision of certain global public goods, India’s cooperation with like-minded actors will be key.
    • India could work closely with the Alliance for Multilateralism, an initiative launched by Germany and France, to shape both the alliance itself and the reform agenda at large.
    • Working together with a group of countries from the developed and developing countries could further amplify India’s voice.
    • China may recover faster than most economically, and its military might remains intact, its image as a reliable partner has suffered a huge dent.
    • India could lead a coalition to bridge the deficit of trust between China and the rest of the world.

    Consider the following question “Covid pandemic has been acting as a catalyst in precipitating the fall of global order and multilateralism. At the same time, we are well aware of the utility of the multilateralism. Examine the opportunities that falling global order provides for India in restoring it in the new form.”

    Conclusion

    The disruption in the global order provides India with a unique opportunity. One the one hand it has to steer the gradual decoupling with China and on the other hand, it has the opportunity to lead the coalition to bridge trust deficit with China. India should not squander these opportunities.