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GS Paper: GS2-19.Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.

  • Tibetan Policy and Support Act (TPSA)

    The US and China sparred over Tibet and the South China Sea over the passing of the Tibetan Policy and Support Act (TPSA).

    Do you think that India’s support for the Tibetan cause is the root cause of all irritants in India-China relations?

    About TPSA

    • The TPSA once signed into law would make it the official policy of the US Government to oppose any effort by the govt. of the People’s Republic of China to select, educate, and venerate Tibetan Buddhist religious leaders in a manner inconsistent with Tibetan Buddhism.
    • The proposed legislation will empower the US Government to impose sanctions on China who might try to interfere in the process of selecting the next incarnation of the Dalai Lama.

    Why such a law?

    • Tibetans were concerned over the possibility of the Chinese Government making an attempt to install someone loyal to it as the 15th Dalai Lama after the death of the incumbent.
    • The PRC could use him as a puppet to fizzle out the global campaign against its occupation of Tibet.
    • The incumbent and the 14th Dalai Lama have been living in exile in India ever since his 1959 escape from Tibet, which had been occupied by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in 1950-51.
    • He has been leading the movement for “genuine autonomy” for Tibet and the Tibetans.

    Significance of TPSA

    • The TPSA acknowledged the legitimacy of the Tibetan Parliament in Exile elected by the exiled community as well as the CTA.
    • It seeks to introduce key provisions aimed at protecting the environment and water resources on the Tibetan Plateau.
    • In an aggressive move, the PRC government has forced resettlement of the nomads from grasslands.
    • TPSA recognizes the importance of traditional Tibetan grassland stewardship in mitigating the negative effects of climate change in the region.
    • In addition, it calls for greater international cooperation to monitor the environment on the Tibetan plateau.

  • The many challenges for WTO

    The next Director-General of the organization will have to navigate through a slew of thorny issues in WTO.

    WTO to lead by a woman for the first time

    • For the first time in its 25-year history, the World Trade Organization (WTO) will be led by a woman.
    • The D-G’s job will require perseverance and outstanding negotiating skills for balancing the diverse and varied interests of the 164 member countries, and especially, for reconciling competing for multilateral and national visions, for the organization to work efficiently.
    • The next D-G will have to grapple with the global economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and work towards carrying out reforms of the multilateral trading system for reviving the world economy.
    • On all these issues, her non-partisan role will be watched carefully.

    Practice Question: In the wake of the global economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, discuss the challenges ahead of WTO.

    Tussle between developed and developing countries

    • The current impasse in the WTO negotiations has led member countries to believe in the necessity of carrying out urgent reforms, which is likely to throw up some difficult choices for developing countries like India.
    • At the core of the divide within the WTO is the Doha Development Agenda, which the developed countries sought to move in favour of a new agenda that includes, amongst others, e-commerce, investment facilitation, MSMEs and gender.
    • Salvaging the ‘development’-centric agenda is critical for a large number of developing countries as they essentially see trade as a catalyst of development.
    • Restoring the WTO dispute settlement mechanism, especially the revival of its Appellate body, is also crucial for the organization’s efficient functioning.

    Definition of ‘Developing Country’ – a contentious issue

    • The push for a change in the definition of “developing country” under the principle of special and differential treatment (S&DT), aimed at upgrading certain developing countries, will deeply affect the status of emerging economies such as India, China, South Africa, Turkey, Egypt, etc.
    • The assumption that some countries have benefited immensely from the WTO rules since its formation in 1995 is flawed, at least in the case of India. And even if there may be no consensus of views on measuring ‘development’, India will remain a developing country no matter which parameter is used.
    • The way out for India could be to negotiate a longer phase-out period or an acceptable formula based on development indices, etc.

    Fisheries subsidies negotiations

    • Among the current negotiations at the WTO, the fisheries subsidies negotiations command the highest attention.
    • India can lead the way in finding a landing zone by urging others to settle for the lowest common denominator while seeking permanent protection for traditional and artisanal farmers who are at the subsistence level of survival.
    • The danger lies in seeking larger carve-outs, which could result in developed countries ploughing precious fisheries resources in international waters.

    Lessons from COVID-19

    • The COVID-19 crisis has revealed the urgent and enduring need for international cooperation and collaboration, as no country can fight the pandemic alone.
    • The D-G can help mitigate the effects of the pandemic by giving clear directions on ensuring that supply chains remain free and open, recommending a standard harmonized system with classification for vaccines, and by the removal of import/export restrictions.
    • Voluntary sharing and pooling of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) is required for any global effort to tackle the pandemic, but with the fear of vaccine nationalism looming large, several countries are seeking to secure the future supply of leading COVID-19 vaccines.
    • India’sreiteration that its vaccine production and delivery capacity will help the whole of humanity will require the D-G to play a responsible role in removing barriers to intellectual property and securing a legal framework within the WTO TRIPS Agreement.
    • This can be done by lending salience to the effective interpretation of Articles 8 and 31 of the Agreement, that allow compulsory licensing and agreement of a patent without the authorization of its owner under certain conditions.

    Way Forward

    • The consensus-based decision-making in the WTO, which makes dissension by even one member stop the process in its track, gives developing countries some heft and influence at par with developed countries.
    • The D-G would need to tread cautiously on this front, as some will allude to the successful implementation of the Trade Facilitation Agreement in 2017 that allowed member countries to make commitments in a phased manner in accordance with their domestic preparedness.
    • Most imminently, the next D-G will need to build trust among its members that the WTO needs greater engagement by all countries, to stitch fair rules in the larger interest of all nations and thwart unfair trade practices of a few.

  • Iran’s calculated risk

    The article analyses Iran’s response to the recent killing of its top nuclear scientist. Instead of responding to the provocation, Iran has decided to wait and watch the new U.S. administrations response.

    Background of nuclear deal with Iran

    • In 2015, the P5+1 nations-China, France, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S., plus Germany- reached an agreement with Iran to curb the country’s nuclear programme.
    • It was expected that the agreement would lead to a new beginning in West Asia, however, this did not happen.
    • Washington saw Iran’s nuclear programme, which was at an advanced stage in 2015, as a national security problem and tackled it via diplomacy.
    • However, for Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran’s nuclear programme was not the problem but was part of the larger geopolitical challenges Iran posed.
    • The problem was Iran itself: Tehran’s influence across West Asia, its backing for non-state militias, and its ambition to emerge as a dominant pillar in the region.
    • The Donald Trump administration took an entirely different line towards Iran.
    • It pulled the U.S. out of the nuclear deal, despite United Nations certification that Iran was compliant with its terms, and reimposed sanctions on Tehran.

    Israels

    • Iran wants to set back Iran’s nuclear programme by taking out a prominent scientist and scuttle the possible revival of the nuclear deal.
    • If Iran does not retaliate, it shows that Iran’s deterrence is getting weaker, which could trigger more such attacks from its rivals.
    • If it retaliates, it could escalate the conflict, giving the outgoing Trump administration and Isarael reasons to launch heavier strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, closing off the diplomatic path.

    Iran’s response and challenges in it

    • Instead of walking into the trap of provocation, Iran’s Parliament passed a Bill that obliges the government to enrich uranium to a higher level, from less than 5% now to 20%.
    • This is a technical step away from the weapons-grade level of 90%.
    • And stop access for UN inspectors to the country’s top nuclear facilities in two months if sanctions relief is not given.
    • Within two months, Mr. Biden will be in the White House.

    Conclusion

    Iran is taking a calculated risk by enhancing its nuclear programme, which can be reversed if talks are revived. But it is leaving the Israel problem unaddressed, for now. This leaves the region vulnerable to a prolonged crisis.

  • Geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East and consequences for Indian subcontinent

    Three broad trends emerging from the Middle East and its implication for the region have been discussed here.

    Growing vulnerability of Iran and implications for subcontinent

    • The brazen murder of a top Iranian nuclear scientist highlights the Islamic Republic of Iran’s growing strategic vulnerabilities.
    • This geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East has major consequences for the subcontinent.
    • Whether they want to or not, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh must deal with three broad trends that define the new Middle East.

    3 Trends in the Middle East

    1) Iran’s growing isolation

    •  The Trump administration and the Republicans, Israel and the Gulf Arabs have a shared interest in preventing the next US President from renewing nuclear diplomacy with Iran and ending Tehran’s isolation.
    • The assassination of Fakhrizadeh is about achieving that political objective.
    • If Iran retaliates vigorously, it will invite an all-out confrontation with Israel and the US.
    • Holding back will expose Iran’s weakness and sharpen internal divisions between pragmatists who want to engage the US and the hardliners.
    • The frequent attacks on high-profile Iranian targets indicate hostile penetration of its society such that domestic opponents of the regime are now willing to collaborate with foreign security agencies, including Israel’s Mossad.
    •  Iran’s internal political weakness is compounded by the massive economic pain imposed by the Trump administration through sanctions.
    • Iran has much goodwill in South Asia, but India and its neighbours have no desire to get sucked into Tehran’s conflicts with the Arabs or the US.

    2)  Transformation of Arab relations with Israel

    • The fear of Iran has been driving Gulf Arabs to embrace Israel.
    • In the last few months, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have normalised ties with Israel.
    • There is speculation of an impending normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
    • Pakistan’s Prime Minister has talked of pressure, apparently from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, on recognising Israel.
    • If Pakistan recognises Israel, Bangladesh would not want to be left behind.
    • Economic and technological collaboration with Israel will give Bangladesh’s economy and foreign policy a big boost.
    • For Israel, having Bangladesh and Pakistan, two of the world’s largest Islamic nations, recognise it would be a great ideological and political bonus
    • An India that proclaims the virtues of engaging all sides in the Middle East can’t grudge the same privilege for Israel in South Asia.

    3) Rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Turkey

    • While Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE want to return the Middle East towards political and religious moderation, the once secular Turkey has become the new champion of political Islam.
    • Turkey’s contestation with Saudi Arabia is already having an impact on India and Pakistan.
    • Turkey is now hostile to India and has joined Pakistan in taking up the Kashmir question at international forums.
    • For Pakistan, this seemed a useful counter to the Gulf Arabs, who were ramping up strategic ties with India.
    • However, UAE and Saudi Arabia have the option to put massive costs on the Pakistani economy that can’t be plugged by Turkey or Malaysia.

    Conclusion

    Although India has made some important adjustments to its engagement with the Middle East in recent years, Delhi can’t take its eyes off the rapid changes in the region.

  • India and the OIC

    India has hit out at the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) for making factually incorrect and unwarranted references to Jammu and Kashmir.

    What is OIC?

    • The OIC — formerly Organisation of the Islamic Conference — is the world’s second-largest inter-governmental organisation after the UN, with a membership of 57 states.
    • The OIC’s stated objective is “to safeguard and protect the interests of the Muslim world in the spirit of promoting international peace and harmony among various people of the world”.
    • OIC has reserved membership for Muslim-majority countries. Russia, Thailand, and a couple of other small countries have Observer status.

    India’s relationship with OIC

    • At the 45th session of the Foreign Ministers’ Summit in 2018, Bangladesh suggested that India, where more than 10% of the world’s Muslims live, should be given Observer status.
    • In 1969, India was dis-invited from the Conference of Islamic Countries in Rabat, Morocco at Pakistan’s behest.
    • Then Agriculture Minister Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed was dis-invited upon arrival in Morocco after Pakistan President Yahya Khan lobbied against Indian participation.

    Recent developments

    • In 2019, India made its maiden appearance at the OIC Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Abu Dhabi, as a “guest of honour”.
    • Then External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj addressed the Inaugural Plenary.
    • This first-time invitation was seen as a diplomatic victory for New Delhi, especially at a time of heightened tensions with Pakistan following the Pulwama attack.
    • Pakistan had opposed the invitation to Swaraj and it boycotted the plenary after the UAE turned down his demand to rescind the invitation.

    What is the OIC’s stand on Kashmir?

    • It has been generally supportive of Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir and has issued statements criticizing India.
    • These statements over the last three decades became an annual ritual, of little significance to India.
    • Last year, after India revoked Article 370 in Kashmir, Pakistan lobbied with the OIC for their condemnation of the move.
    • To Pakistan’s surprise, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — both top leaders among the Muslim countries — issued nuanced statements, and were not as harshly critical of New Delhi as Islamabad had hoped.
    • Since then, Islamabad has tried to rouse sentiments among the Islamic countries, but only a handful of them — Turkey and Malaysia — publicly criticised India.

    How has India been responding?

    • India has consistently underlined that J&K is an integral part of India and is a matter strictly internal to India.
    • The strength with which India has made this assertion has varied slightly at times, but never the core message.
    • It has maintained its “consistent and well known” stand that the OIC had no locus standi,
    • This time, India went a step ahead and said the grouping continues to allow itself to be used by a certain country “which has a record on religious tolerance, radicalism and persecution of minorities”.

    OIC members and India

    • Individually, India has good relations with almost all member nations. Ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, especially, have looked up significantly in recent years.
    • The OIC includes two of India’s close neighbours, Bangladesh and Maldives.
    • Indian diplomats say both countries privately admit they do not want to complicate their bilateral ties with India on Kashmir but play along with OIC.

    What lies ahead with OIC?

    • India now sees the duality of the OIC untenable, since many of these countries have good bilateral ties and convey to India to ignore OIC statements.
    • But these countries sign off on the joint statements which are largely drafted by Pakistan.
    • South Block feels it is important to challenge the double-speak since Pakistan’s campaign and currency on the Kashmir issue has hardly any takers in the international community.

  • Killing of Iranian nuclear scientist and its implications

    The assassination of Iran’s nuclear scientist has implication for the future of JCPOA and the peace and the stability of the region. The article explains why.

    Context

    • Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the Iranian scientist who led Iran’s nuclear weapons programme until it was disbanded, was assassinated last week.

    JCPOA and U.S. Presidential election’s link with the

    • Assassinations in which Israeli hands were suspected had stopped after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed.
    • The U.S. withdrew from the agreement when Trump became the U.S. President.
    • In retaliation of the withdrawal, Iran began enriching uranium and stockpiling it beyond JCPOA limits.
    • With that, the strategy of targeted assassinations seems to be back.
    • This strategy has assumed urgency with the election of Joe Biden in the U.S., who has expressed his desire to return to the JCPOA.

    Understanding the Israel link

    • Israel government is apprehensive that Mr. Biden will imperil Israel’s nuclear monopoly in West Asia.
    • The assassination of Fakhrizadeh appears to be part of a larger Israeli plan in conjunction with Saudi Arabia to force the U.S. into taking military action against Iran.
    • An Israeli-Saudi nexus on this issue, when combined with President Trump’s, could culminate in a major military strike on Iran before he leaves office.

    Win-win situation for Israel

    • If the Iranian government launches revenge attacks Mr. Netanyahu would be able to persuade the U.S. to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
    • If Iran shows restraint, Israel would have shown up the Iranian regime as weak while augmenting anti-American feelings in the country.
    • That anti-American feeling would make it difficult for the Biden administration to resume negotiations with Tehran on reviving JCPOA.

    Conclusion

    The fallout of the assassination, while benefiting Israel, will add to the instability in the region.

  • Divided democracies

    Democracies across the world are facing several challenges. The article examines these challenges.

    Threats to democracy

    • Efforts by Donald Trump, to negate the result of the recently held presidential elections, indicates a new set of tactics, previously seen only in dictatorships.
    • In the case of the U.S., one of the world’s oldest democracies, what we are witnessing is a deep divide.
    • This division is evident in many other democratic nations today.
    • This is true of many other democracies as well and must be viewed as a wake-up call.
    • What is evident is that issues of identity, or threats to identity, are becoming an important issue in elections across democracies.
    • Democracies already confront such problems, but it will become still more evident as time passes.
    • Manipulation of grievances by using psychometric techniques (as done by Cambridge Analytica), and the use of ‘deep fakes’ made possible through Artificial Intelligence, further enhances the threat to current notions of democracy.

    Troubles to democracy in Europe

    • Europe will have to deal with the declining importance of America in global politics.
    • An uncertain Brexit will further damage the prospects of both the United Kingdom and Europe.
    • Russia, under Vladimir Putin, remains an enigma, for despite its military strength and strategic congruence with China, its future appears increasingly uncertain.
    • France displays even greater fragility and French values appear to be undergoing major changes.
    • The recent wave of terrorist attacks has been a major trigger, raising questions about long-held secular beliefs.

    Return of terrorism

    • Terrorism is resurfacing, and with renewed vigour.
    • The al-Qaeda is again becoming prominent. The IS, which many thought had been vanquished has returned in full force.
    • Recently IS has carried out spectacular attacks in France and in Austria which is a reminder of the transnational character of the threat it poses to democratic countries.
    • They combine symbolism with spectacular violence.
    • The intent is to shock the public at large, and produce a reaction across the entire Muslim world, reigniting the fading embers of a religio-cultural conflict.

    Information manipulation

    • Alongside the above issues, there is a growing concern across the globe about increasing efforts to manipulate information in order to perpetuate power.
    • Manipulation of information — and also events — to achieve certain desired ends, is becoming the stock-in-trade of many a democratic regime as well.
    • Many democratic nations today resort to manipulating data to support or prop up the government’s version of events. Informational autocracy is, hence, the latest danger that threatens democracies.

    India’s challenges

    1) Threat to democracy

    • In some regions, especially where mid-term elections are scheduled, as in West Bengal, the atmosphere today is highly polarised.
    • The ghosts of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act and the National Register of Citizens have by no means been laid to rest.
    • Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is witnessing a kind of surface calm, but beneath this, there are evident tensions.
    • Aggravating this situation are Pakistan’s efforts to push in terrorists in ever larger numbers.

    Uncertain external environment

    • The downward spiral in its relations with China has not been arrested.
    • 15 Asia-Pacific nations, including China, have signed on to the world’s biggest trade bloc, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) — from which India has been excluded.
    • The RCEP, which covers almost a third of the world’s economy, is perceived as the springboard for future economic recovery across the region.
    • India’s absence from RCEP represents a cardinal failure of India’s bargaining strategy.
    • India’s isolation is evident from the fact that even a weak Pakistan is pursuing a policy of provocation— the latest provocation being the holding of Assembly elections in Gilgit-Baltistan.
    • India is again being steadily marginalised in Afghanistan, where the control of the Taliban is increasing, with all other players accomodating Taliban.

    Consider the question “What are the various challenges faced by the democracies across the world and India is no exception to it. In the context of this, examine the issues facing democracy in India.”

    Conclusion

    Though democracies across the world are facing several issues, resilience inherent in them will help them clear the chaos created by these issues.

  • UAE’s Golden Visa Program

    The United Arab Emirates will extend its “golden” visa system — which grants 10-year residency in the West Asian nation — to certain professionals, specialised degree-holders and others.

    Do you know?

     India is the world’s top recipient of remittances with its diaspora sending a whopping $79 billion back home in 2018 a/c to the World Bank.

    Golden Visa Programme

    • The “Golden Card” programme is open to investors and “exceptional talents” such as doctors, engineers, scientists, students and artists.
    • The visa categories include:
    1. General investors who will be granted a 10 years visa
    2. Real estate investors, who can get a visa for 5 years Visa
    3. Entrepreneurs and talented professionals such as doctors, researchers and innovators: 10 years Visa
    4. Outstanding students — will also be permitted residency visas for 5 years
    • All categories of visas can be renewed upon expiry.

    Benefits for India

    • The Indian expatriate community is reportedly the largest ethnic community in the UAE, constituting roughly about 30 per cent of the country’s population of around nine million.
    • Though most of the Indians living in the UAE are employed, about 10 per cent of the Indian population constitutes dependent family members, according to the Indian Embassy.

  • The next administration will also pursue ‘America First’

    The voting trend in the U.S. presidential election indicates significant support for the policies pursued by President Trump. This could impact the policies the next administration pursues.

    Why U.S. election matters for the world

    • The world still has need for American leadership.
    • It remains the world’s largest net provider of global public goods.
    • It is the lynchpin of the global multilateral system.
    • If Joe Biden wins, it is possible that America will re-engage with dignity and restore mutual respect in its relations with allies and partners, beginning with the trans-Atlantic alliance.
    • However, the Trump Americans, who are the new political base, will still shape American policy irrespective of who the president is.

    ‘America first’ is here to stay

    • The American people believe that their education, employment and retirement have been impacted by the immigration, outsourcing and liberal trade policies of past administrations.
    • Trump America does not want more migrants, it will not support the outsourcing of jobs at the cost of their own.
    • It wants a fair deal on trade that does not allow cheaper imports to put small American businesses out of business.
    • Even a Biden administration cannot return America back to the days of open borders and free trade.
    • It might relax some categories of work-visas, but it cannot return to the time when outsourcing was the preferred option for American companies.
    • It might re-engage with the World Trade Organisation but it cannot tear down the trade barriers that Trump has erected in the name of Make in America.

    Foreign policy of next administration

    • The Trump Americans do not wish to spend any more taxpayer dollars on foreign wars and they want their boys and girls to come home.
    • They think America’s allies are not carrying their weight and are unfairly living off American contributions.
    • They want their allies and partners to take greater responsibility for peace and security.
    • Biden’s supporters hope that he can reverse the abdication of American global leadership and renew alliances, but as president he may find it difficult to go against the Trump Americans on issues like China, Iran and climate change, without endangering the Democratic Party’s long-term interests.
    • And if Trump is re-elected as the president, it will only be because of his core voter base and it will strengthen his resolve.

    Implications for the world

    • Whether or not America withdraws from the world, American leadership, as we know it, might be over.
    • America will become more transactional and less generous.
    • Common values like democracy or multipolarity may be of lesser importance in America’s scheme of things.
    • Whether it is Trump or Biden, the Sino-US relationship will remain complicated and rivalrous.
    • Whether it is Trump or Biden, the Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran cannot be restored.
    • Whether it is Trump or Biden, American troops will soon be gone from Afghanistan.
    • There will be less willingness to consider emerging economies as deserving beneficiaries of concessional arrangements.
    • A Biden presidency might also mean a more critical look at the record of not just authoritarian states but also democracies on issues like labour, environment and non-proliferation.

    Implications for India

    • President Trump has been good for India in terms of foreign policy, less so in terms of economic policy.
    • But Delhi should equally be prepared for the Trump administration to ratchet up pressure on trade and to tighten rules on immigration.
    • With Biden, India and the US might return to a more balanced re-engagement on trade and immigration, but should be prepared for a more accommodative policy on both Pakistan and China than Trump’s.

    Conclusion

    Whoever is the next occupant of the White House, the way Americans voted on November 3 will shape American policy and politics for years to come.

  • What are Abraham Accords?

    The White House has marked the formal normalization of Israel’s ties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Kingdom of Bahrain has created a significant inflexion point in regional history and geopolitics.

    Try this question:

    Q. What are Abraham Accords? Discuss how the Israel-Gulf synergy could impact India’s relations with Israel.

    What are Abraham Accords?

    • The Israel–UAE normalization agreement is officially called the Abraham Accords Peace Agreement.
    • It was initially agreed to in a joint statement by the United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on August 13, 2020.
    • The UAE thus became the third Arab country, after Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994, to agree to formally normalize its relationship with Israel as well as the first Persian Gulf country to do so.
    • Concurrently, Israel agreed to suspend plans for annexing parts of the West Bank. The agreement normalized what had long been informal but robust foreign relations between the two countries.

    New friendships

    • Externally, Israel, the UAE and Bahrain share the common threat perception of Iran.
    • Internally, while all three have their respective hotheads opposing this reconciliation, these seem manageable.
    • They are relatively more modern societies which share the overarching and immediate priority of post-pandemic economic resuscitation.
    • They have lost no time to set up logistics such as Internet connectivity and direct flights to pave the way for more active economic engagement.
    • If these sinews evolve, other moderate Arab countries are likely to join the Israel fan club.

    India and the Gulf

    • Now India has stronger, multifaceted and growing socioeconomic engagements with Israel and the Gulf countries.
    • With over eight million Indian diasporas in the Gulf remitting annually nearly $50 billion, annual merchandise trade of over $150 billion.
    • It sources nearly two-thirds of India’s hydrocarbon imports, major investments, etc. Hence it is natural to ask how the new regional dynamic would affect India.

    The Israel-GCC synergy

    • With defence and security cooperation as a strong impetus, both sides are ready to realize the full potential of their economic complementarity.
    • The UAE and Bahrain can become the entrepôts to Israeli exports of goods and services to diverse geographies.
    • Israel has niche strengths in defence, security and surveillance equipment, arid farming, solar power, horticultural products, high-tech, gem and jewellery, and pharmaceuticals.
    • Tourism, real estate and financial service sectors on both sides have suffered due to the pandemic and hope for a positive spin-off from the peer-to-peer interactions.
    • Further, Israel has the potential to supply skilled and semi-skilled manpower to the GCC states, particularly from the Sephardim and Mizrahim ethnicities, many of whom speak Arabic.
    • Even the Israeli Arabs may find career opportunities to bridge the cultural divide. Israel is known as the start-up nation and its stakeholders could easily fit in the various duty-free incubators in the UAE.

    Implications of the new trinity

    • Geopolitically, India has welcomed the establishment of diplomatic relations between the UAE and Israel, calling both its strategic partners.
    • In general, the Israel-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) breakthrough widens the moderate constituency for peaceful resolution of the Palestine dispute, easing India’s diplomatic balancing act.
    • However, nothing in West Asia is monochromatic: The Israel-GCC ties may provoke new polarization between the Jihadi fringe and the mainstream.
    • The possibility of the southern Gulf becoming the new arena of the proxy war between Iran and Israel cannot be ruled out, particularly in Shia pockets.
    • India would have to be on its guard to monitor and even pre-empt any threat to its interests in the Gulf.

    Way forward

    • Israeli foray into the Gulf has the potential to disrupt the existing politico-economic architecture India has carefully built with the GCC states.
    • India has acquired a large and rewarding regional footprint, particularly as the preferred source of manpower, food products, pharmaceuticals, gem and jewellery, light engineering items, etc.
    • Indians are also the biggest stakeholders in Dubai’s real estate, tourism and Free Economic Zones.
    • In the evolving scenario, there may be scope for a profitable trilateral synergy, but India cannot take its preponderance as a given.