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GS Paper: GS2-19.Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.

  • BREXIT

    What has happened?

    A referendum – a vote in which everyone of voting age can take part was held to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union and Leave won. <what is the difference b/s referendum and plebiscite?>

    What is this UK, Britain, Ireland, Republic? What’s going on? Is Scotland a separate country?

    Without going into the history- 

    • Full name is United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland i.e Great Britain plus N.I.
    • Great Britain – It contains 3 somewhat autonomous regions – England, Wales and Scotland
    • Republic of Ireland separated from northern Ireland and UK in 1920s and is a separate country now <Belfast is capital of which Ireland and what is the capital of Wales and Scotland?>

    But why this referendum

    Conservative govt led by David Cameron had promised this referendum if they won the general election and as they won this referendum was held

    What is European Union?

    • It is an economic and political partnership involving 28 European countries <latest country to join EU?>
    • It is a single market (common market) allowing goods and people to move around, basically as if the member states were one country. So basically any French citizen can travel to Germany and work there without visa.
    • You can visit whole of EU with a single visa <no internal borders>

    I had to take a separate visa to travel to London. How about that?

    • So this common visa thing is applicable only to countries that are party to Schengen area <where is Schengen btw?>
    • There are 26 Schengen countries (22 EU + 4 Non EU)
    • 4 Non EU – Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein <btw Liechtenstein is a double land locked country. Look in the map and find out which other country is doubly landlocked, There’s only one other>
    • 6 EU not party – Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Ireland, Romania and the UK.

    So as UK is not party to Schengen, you had to take Visa.

    What about euro? I had to use pound in UK. Isn’t the Euro currency of EU?

    • Euro currency is used by Eurozone countries. Eurozone is subset of EU. Only 19 EU countries are part of it. Obviously UK is not party to it. 
    • Euro is also used by 4 other European countries – Vatican, Andorra, San Marino, Monaco

    Any history ? How did EU begin?

    • It grew out of a desire for peace in a war-torn and divided continent. It started in 1951 with European Coal and steel community of 6 countries by treaty of Paris <France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg>
    • 1957 – European Economic Community (EEC) or common market was formed by treaty of Rome,
    • 1973 – Britain, Denmark and Ireland joins the EEC <total 9 countries now>
    • 1992 – Maastricht treaty was signed and comes into force in 1993. Formal beginning of EU
    • 2002 – Euro replaces national currency in eurozone

    What does EU do?

    • Eu oversees co-operation among its members in diverse areas, including trade, the environment, transport and employment
    • Common security and foreign policy
    • coordinates policy on asylum, immigration, drugs and terrorism <that’s why so much concern over migration fro middles east and north Africa>
    • EU policies on workers’ rights and other social issues <UK not part of this social chapter either>
    • Promotes human rights, give aid to agriculture, fisheries etc

    Okay, sounds great but how does it all work?

    EU works through 4 main institutions

    1. European Commission – All powerful bureaucracy of member states <each country, one representative>, propose laws, implement laws, job is to promote European interest, not the interest of member countries, HQ in Brussels <where is Brussels>
    2. European Council – It’s a political body, leaders meet here
    3. European Parliament – Directly elected MPs <MEPs> vote on almost all the issues now days. It sits in Strasbourg <where is Strasbourg?>
    4. European court of rights – name explains everything <where is its headquarters?

    Why do Brits want to leave EU?

    1. Sovereignty – that Britain ceded its sovereignty, right to pass its own laws to bureaucrats sitting in Brussels <Doesn’t India lose its sovereignty by being member of UN?>
    2. Regulations – That Brussels imposed too many regulations that hurt British business interest
    3. Money – Billions of pounds of entry fee with very little to show in return <Britain don’t have many farmers to get agriculture subsidies>
    4. Open borders/ migration – even though Britain is not part Schengen, workers from rest of the EU can come their freely and work there. Large numbers from eastern europe came just to claim British benefits, social security and all <so called welfare tourism>
    5. Ever Closer Union – detested the idea of United states of Europe <closer political union, confederation sort of thing>

    Why did Cameron want UK to stay in EU?

    1. Single market – much easier to sell things while being member of single market
    2. Security
    3. Britain’s status in the world is enhanced as part of EU

    How is single market different from free trade area?

    • In FTA there are no tariffs except on some negotiated goods and services but in single market, even labour mobility is free
    • In Single market, you impose common tariffs on all imports, it;s like a single country for the purpose of trade and commerce
    • There are common standards etc. <environment, labour, quality etc.>

    What is European free trade association (EFTA)?

    • It is FTA of 4 European countries -Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein <do you recall they are all part of Schengen>
    • All of them have signed FTA with EU. Britain can sign similar FTA with EU now

    What happens now?

    • Britain would negotiate its exit <under Lisbon treaty>, But the fear is of contagion. Eurosceptic parties of other countries would also press for similar referendums.  
    • Plus as Scotland has voted overwhelmingly in favour of stay (68%), there would be fresh demand for referendum on Scottish independence. Similarly is the case with northern Ireland.

    Impact on India

    • No direct impact but expect turbulence in stock and forex market. Panicky investors may withdraw their hot money out of India
    • On positive side, India can sign FTA with Britain

  • The Crisis In The Middle East

    What exactly is this Syrian civil war?

    1. An ongoing armed conflict between the Syrian government and the rebel forces within Syria.
    2. It started in the spring of 2011 with the context of Arab spring.

    To understand the conflict let us know the historical background of Syria. So, where is Syria?

      1. Syria is one of the Arab Nations which shares its borders with Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and Iraq.
      2. Damascus – capital of Syria.
      3. Syria became independent in 1946.
      4. Democratic rule was ended by a military coup in 1949.
      5. The military rule ended in 1954.
      6. From 1958-1961 Syria and Egypt were part of a union called as ‘United Arab Republic’ with Cairo as capital and Gamal Abdel Nasser as President.
      7. In 1961, Syria seceded from the Union after the Syrian Coup d’êtat – uprising by the Syrian Army officers.
      8. The country was named as Syrian Arab Republic.
      9. But the government was weak. Why? Due to the influence of United Arab Republic and a military coup happened in 1963 and 1966.

    That’s pretty complex! But UPSC is famous for asking about the details. What happened then? 

    In 1970, in another coup General Hafez al -Assad, the Minister of Defence seized the power.

    1. He became the P.M of Syria.
    2. In 1971, he was declared the President of Syria (until his death in 2000).
    3. Syria was a single-party state.
    4. Syrians could approve the President by referendum until the government controlled multi party 2012 election.
    5. The Syrians could not vote in multiparty elections for the legislature.

    The ascension of Bashar Al-Assad and the Shia-Sunni conflicts

    1. Son of Hafez al-Assad – Took over as the President of Syria after his Father’s death.
    2. The Syrians wanted democratic form of government but, ah well!
    3. The Assads belong to minority group Alawite (an offshoot of Shia which constitutes 12% of the total population).
    4. They controlled Syria’s security services which generated resentment among the Sunni Muslims (majority in Syria).

    Phew! That is a very complex history. What happened next that finally led to the war? It is important to cover the story comprehensively for an IAS Aspirant.

      1. Well, the discontent was high against the government in poorer areas among Sunnis + High poverty and drought.
      2. Socio-economic inequality increased after free market policies initiated by Hafez al-Assad.
      3. Bashar continued those policies and only the minorities (Shias) and Sunni merchant class benefited through that.
      4. Standard of living deteriorated + High youth unemployment rates.

    Then there were a few violation of human rights and eventually an uprising!

    In 2010 the protests from Tunisia spread across the Arab world. In 2011 Tunisia and Egypt experienced revolution. Libya had its own civil war. The Tunisia and Egypt revolution inspired the Syrians to protest against their government.

    Wow, that escalated quickly. So how did the protests turn into an armed rebellion?

    1. March 2011 – The initial protests were aimed at democratic reforms which started in Damascus.
    2. Till April 7, 2011, the protesters demanded democratic reforms, release of political prisoners, more freedom, abolition of emergency law and an end to corruption.
    3. On April 8, 2011, the protesters demanded Bashar’s resignation and protests spread across major cities in Syria.
    4. On 4th June, 2011, the Syrian security forces guarding on the roof of a post office fired at a funeral demonstration.
    5. The protesters set fire to the post office and killed the security officers and then seized weapons from a police station.
    6. The soldiers who refused to kill the protesters were executed and that led to the inclusion of soldiers into the protests to protect the protesters.

    And that led to the formation of the Free Syrian Army

    1. Formed by 7 Syrian officers who defected the Syrian armed forces. The other soldiers joined them.
    2. The aim was to bring down Assad government.
    3. Then the fight started between Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Syrian Armed Forces.
    4. The people protested one side, the Syrian Kurds, FSA, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) started armed rebellion against the Syrian government.
    5. ISIL controlled a third of Syrian territory and most of its oil and gas production.
    6. This led to a major twist in the Syrian civil war.
    7. Due to the civil war in the country huge scores of people died and many were displaced.
    8. Many people fled from Syria to other nations as refugees.
    9. This led to a major migrant crisis in the Middle East.

     

    UPSC will probably grill you down to your guts on how this issue will complicate situation in the middle east. These are the current themes doing rounds as the news evolves and you need to keep a tab on these developments for the IAS Mains.

     

    Published with inputs from Vinoth.

     

  • US policy wise : Visa, Free Trade and WTO

  • Contention over South China Sea

    • Why in news?
    • Background
    • Importance of South China Sea
    • What is the case about?
    • Are Chinese claims valid?
    • What next?
    • India’s involvement in issue
    • Further role by India

    Why in news?

    • The Permanent Court of Arbitration at Hague has declared that China cannot claim any historic rights over islands in the South China sea. The tribunal also ruled that China has violated Philippines’s sovereign rights.
    • The dispute had been raised by Philippines in 2013. However, China had refused to participate in the tribunal proceedings, questioning jurisdiction among other things.
    • After the tribunal announced the verdict, China has officially announced it has neither accepted nor recognised the award of the tribunal.
    • This award had been looked forward to by many countries including India and USA, both of which have strategic maritime as well as economic interests in the region.

    source

    Background

    • The South China Sea is located at the western edge of the Pacific Ocean, to Asia’s southeast.
    • It encompasses an area of about 1.4 million square miles and contains a collection of reefs, islands and atolls, including the Spratly Islands,Paracel Islands and Scarborough Shoal.
    • China has been claiming the historic control of over 85% of South China Sea, while countries like Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan and Brunei also have been making competing claims.

    Importance of South China Sea

    • It is a 3.5m sq km waterway.
    • One of the world’s most strategically vital maritime spaces.
    • More oil passes through here than the Suez Canal.
    • More than $5 trillion in trade flows through its waters each year. That is a third of all global maritime commerce.
    • The Strait of Malacca that links Indian and Pacific Oceans handles four times as much oil as Suez Canal.

     What is the case about?

    • Philippines brought its dispute with China to international arbitration in January 2013, despite Beijing’s warnings of a diplomatic and economic backlash.
    • The Philippines asked a tribunal of five arbitrators to declare as invalid China’s vast claims, known as nine-dash lines for the dashes that demarcate virtually all of the South China Sea as Chinese territory, under the United Nation Convention on the Law of the Seas, or UNCLOS.
    • The Philippines also asked the tribunal to classify whether a number of disputed areas are islands, low-tide coral outcrops or submerged banks to determine the stretch of territorial waters they are entitled to under the convention.
    • It also wants China to be declared in violation of the convention for carrying out fishing and construction activities that breached the Philippines’ maritime rights.

    Are Chinese claims valid?

    • China had joined UNCLOS long before and has accepted international jurisdictions.
    • However, their current discourse is that China was not the party to the rule making and hence, China has some hesitation in fully following the UNCLOS provisions.
    • The Chinese proposal is that SCS is a territorial sea which means that freedom of navigation would be problematic, although they clarified that they are not obstructing the freedom of navigation or have obstructed before.

    What next?

    • The award can’t be enforced as Chinese have rejected it.
    • What is going to be instructive is how China will respond as PCA doesn’t have any enforcement mechanism.
    • UNCLOS has made it very clear that if a country has equivalent of manmade islands, which is what is at dispute here, the country does not have a maritime entitlement.
    • There is a claim which says that China’s territorial water goes up to 2000 kms!! which is quite untenable.
    • Thus, Chinese response is going to be very critical. However, the first sign of foreign office statement from Beijing has been very categorical. They have used ‘null and void’ to answer the verdict, which is very strong.

    India’s involvement in issue

    From India’s perspective, the freedom of navigation and overflight is critical for two reasons:

    • Lot of India’s trade passes through SCS. Therefore, India cannot accept the situation where India is dependent on the goodwill of Chinese for transit.
    • If China manages to establish its sovereignty over these islands and waters, then it becomes a very important base for its power projection in the Indian Ocean. This is what concerns India.

    India is at present, not taking sides between the contestants in the dispute. So, the Indian position is balanced. At this stage, when it is talked about geopolitical dimension, India should continue this stand.

    Further role by India

    • The role India could play while awaiting China’s response is to engage in a chat with Beijing and cite the India-Bangladesh example that there is a case of principles and that India is taking no position on territoriality but is talking about the way in which maritime practice and law must be respected because that has bearing on the larger issues of global order.
    • India can try to deal with each of the major stakeholders in its own way as it has in the past.

    References:

  • OBOR Initiative

  • Nepal’s Constitution & Emerging Developments

  • Italian Marines Case

    In Feb 2012, two Italian Marines on board an oil tanker had opened fire on a fishing boat and killed two fishermen. The issue has since then been a tussle between the two Government.

  • Iran’s Nuclear Program & Western Sanctions

  • Sri Lanka’s Constitution – Strides in the Right Direction

  • Yemen Crisis