Q) South China Sea has assumed great geopolitical significance in the present context. Comment. (UPSC CSE 2016) Q) Clean energy is the order of the day.’ Describe briefly India’s changing policy towards climate change in various international fora in the context of geopolitics. (UPSC CSE 2022)
Mentor’s Comment: UPSC Mains has always focused on RegionalGeopolitical Issues (2024) and India’s Development and Growth on the International stage (2018, 2022, & 2023).
Global Economists predict that India’s GDP growth will average around 6.5% to 7% in 2025, despite a slowdown observed in late 2024. As India steps into 2025, the economic landscape presents a mix of optimism and challenges.
Today’s editorial outlines the key aspects shaping India’s outlook for the coming year, focusing on growth projections, inflation management, and geopolitical influences. This comprehensive content can be used in your Mains answer writing while discussing the Global uncertainties and changing geopolitics, where India’s Growth trajectory is affected.
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Let’s learn!
Why in the News?
The year 2024 was characterized as a “global elections supercycle,” with over 70 countries, including major economies, scheduled to hold elections.
This political climate is expected to generate significant regulatory and policy uncertainty in 2025, impacting international relations and economic strategies across the globe.
What is the projected Outlook for India’s economy in 2025?
• Various economists project India’s GDP growth to range between 6.3% and 7.2% for 2025, with a consensus around 6.5% to 6.9%, despite a slowdown observed in late 2024. • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) anticipates real GDP growth to recover in the latter half of the fiscal year, with estimates of 6.6% to 6.9% for FY25, supported by public consumption and investment. • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its forecast for India’s growth to 7% for FY25, citing strong domestic demand and a rising working-age population.
What are the new Economic and Political uncertainties in the World?
Economic Landscape: India is recognized as one of the leading nations in terms of economic growth and political stability, that demands an atmosphere of peace amidst global turmoil.
Inflation Issues: Inflation remains a crucial concern, impacting consumption and overall economic stability. Policymakers must navigate these pressures while encouraging investment.
Migration and Unemployment Issues: Addressing structural challenges such as job creation is critical, especially given the need to generate millions of jobs annually until 2030.
Political Landscape: The year 2024 witnessed significant political uncertainty worldwide, with ongoing conflicts in regions like Europe and West Asia, notably the Gaza crisis and the Ukraine conflict.
Global Major Powers: India’s democratic and globalized trajectory will be influenced by the changing political stability, with increase in right-wing policies and frameworks in western world from the new US administration to the European Union.
Geopolitical Tensions with China: Recent border negotiations with China have led to some disengagement at the Line of Actual Control, but the underlying border dispute remains unresolved.
In September 2024, China and African nations jointly agreed to progress the China-sponsored Global Security Initiative (GSI) and deepen cooperation in areas. (steps to outmaneuver India in international forums)
China also managed to steal a march over India during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit held in Pakistan in October.
How will South and West Asia make a major eclipse in regional Geopolitics for India? Current Situation in South Asia: India faces increasing isolation in South Asia, particularly after the ousting of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh, leading to questions about India’s neighborhood policy. • Nepal and Sri Lanka are perceived as “fair weather friends,” while relations with the Maldives remain uncertain. Pakistan continues to be antagonistic, and Afghanistan is not a priority for India. • Bhutan appears to be balancing its relations with India and China under its current leadership.
Challenges in West Asia: • Impact of Syrian Developments: The ouster of the Assad regime in Syria is expected to have significant repercussions for the region, including implications for India. • Rise of Sunni Groups: The takeover by the Sunni group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) may shift regional dynamics, especially as it aligns with the Sunni majority in Syria.
Regional Implications • Dismantling of Alliances: The changing power dynamics could weaken the so-called “axis of resistance,” affecting Iran’s influence and potentially diminishing support for groups like Hezbollah.• Israel’s Position: Israel may emerge stronger amid these changes, while the pro-Palestine movement could face setbacks.
What are the further strands on Technological challenges?
The digital threat landscape is expected to escalate significantly in 2025, necessitating urgent attention and warnings about potential dangers.
In late 2024, India experienced a notable increase in cyber attacks, including denial of service and ransomware incidents targeting major companies and government institutions.
This trend is projected to grow exponentially, posing unprecedented risks to national infrastructure due to the convergence of various technologies.
Conclusion: India must navigate this complex geopolitical landscape carefully, as both Political as well as Technological issues undergo significant transformations that could affect its regional influence and security.
Q) Hatred is destructive of a person’s wisdom and conscience that can poison a nation’s spirit. Do you agree with this view? Justify your answer. (UPSC CSE 2020)
Mentor’s Comment: UPSC mains have always focused on ‘tolerance, assimilation and pluralism’ (2022) and ‘spirit and tolerance’ (2017).
In the book Polarization: What Everyone Needs to Know (2019) by Nolan McCarty examines the social, economic, and geographic causes of political divides in America due to polarisation. After Trump’s 2024 re-election, the U.S. seemed deeply divided politically and culturally. Reflecting this, Merriam-Webster named “polarization” its 2024 word of the year.
Today’s editorial critically examines the polarisation USA’s election and how would impact India and the world. This content can be used in Mains’s answer to substantiate the polarization in elections.
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Let’s learn!
Why in the News?
Donald Trump’s win in the 2016 U.S. presidential election made people think about a “divided” America, with growing political and social differences made worse by fake news in a time when facts often take a back seat.
How does polarization affect global governance and cooperation?
Erosion of Social Fabric: Political polarization in the U.S. has escalated into a divisive force that threatens the fundamental social fabric of democracy. This ideological rift has become an existential clash over national identity and governance, complicating international cooperation and consensus-building efforts.
Fragmented Political Landscape: The increasing divide has made it challenging for political leaders to engage in collaborative governance, as parties become more entrenched in their views, leading to gridlock in policymaking.
The polarization is not just limited to domestic issues but affects how the U.S. interacts with other nations, as differing ideologies can hinder diplomatic relations and cooperative agreements.
What role does misinformation play in exacerbating polarization?
Amplification through Social Media: Misinformation plays a critical role in deepening political polarization by creating echo chambers where individuals are exposed only to viewpoints that reinforce their beliefs.
This phenomenon is exacerbated by social media platforms that prioritize sensational content over factual accuracy, leading to distorted perceptions of reality and increased tribalism among users.
Erosion of Trust: The spread of fake news contributes to a significant decline in trust towards democratic institutions and experts. As misinformation proliferates, individuals become more sceptical of credible sources, which further polarizes public opinion and complicates consensus on key issues such as health care and governance.
How would it impact India?
Shifts in U.S.-India Relations: The outcome of polarized elections in the U.S. directly impacts diplomatic and strategic relations with India. For instance, a Trump administration may adopt a more transactional approach to U.S.-India relations, focusing on trade and immigration policies that could challenge India’s interests.
Domestic Political Ramifications: The polarization seen in the U.S. can resonate within India, potentially exacerbating existing social and political divides.
As Indian political parties observe the strategies employed by their American counterparts, there is a risk of adopting similar divisive tactics that could deepen polarization in Indian society, affecting governance and social cohesion.
How we can navigate the complexities of a fragmented political landscape? (Way forward)
Promoting Dialogue and Understanding: To address the challenges posed by polarization, fostering open dialogue between opposing sides is essential. Initiatives that encourage cross-party discussions can help bridge divides and promote understanding of differing perspectives.
Educational Outreach: Increasing public awareness about the effects of misinformation and the importance of critical thinking can empower citizens to discern credible information from false narratives. Educational programs aimed at enhancing media literacy are crucial in navigating today’s complex political environment.
Encouraging Bipartisan Solutions: Focusing on common goals rather than partisan differences can facilitate collaboration on pressing issues. Policymakers should seek bipartisan support for initiatives that benefit the broader population, thereby reducing the perception of an “us vs. them” mentality.
For over 40 years, Russian gas has been transported to Europe through Ukraine, but these supplies are set to cease on January 1, following Ukraine’s Naftogaz decision not to renew its most recent five-year transit agreement with Russia’s Gazprom.
Note:Student you can use this content in Prelims for facts related to map and mains exam for substantiate the argument related to geopolitical tension in Europe.
Do you know about the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline?
The Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline, also known as the Brotherhood pipeline, is a significant natural gas export route from Russia to Europe, primarily traversing Ukraine. The pipeline starts at the Urengoy gas field in northwest Siberia and extends southwest to Uzhhorod, Ukraine, near the Slovakian border.
It spans approximately 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles), with about 1,160 kilometers (720 miles) located in Ukraine.
The pipeline was commissioned in 1984 and has been a crucial part of Russia’s gas export strategy to Europe.
What is the volume of gas supplied through Ukraine?
Historical Context: At its peak, the pipeline system, including the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline, delivered approximately 201 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to Europe in 2018. However, this volume has drastically decreased over the years due to geopolitical tensions and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Recent Figures: In 2023, only about 15 bcm of gas was shipped through Ukraine, a significant drop from 65 bcm when the last five-year contract began in 2020.
What are the Possible Impacts?
Economic Consequences for Ukraine: Ukraine is expected to lose up to $1 billion annually in transit fees due to the cessation of gas flows. To mitigate this loss, it plans to quadruple gas transmission tariffs for domestic consumers, which could burden its industry with additional costs exceeding $38.2 million per year.
Impact on Gazprom: Russia’s Gazprom is projected to lose around $5 billion in gas sales as a result of this halted transit.
European Energy Security: The European Union has prepared for this transition and does not anticipate immediate impacts on consumer prices.
Countries like Slovakia and Austria have secured alternative gas supplies from sources such as Norway and LNG imports from the U.S. and Qatar.
Hungary will continue receiving Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea.
TurkStream pipeline
Energy Crisis in Moldova: The cessation has led to an energy emergency in Transdniestria, a breakaway region of Moldova that relies on these transit flows, resulting in cutoffs of heating and hot water supplies for residents
Way forward:
Enhanced Energy Diversification: Europe and Ukraine should continue to strengthen alternative energy supply routes, including LNG imports and renewable energy projects, to reduce reliance on Russian gas and ensure long-term energy security.
Support for Affected Regions: Provide immediate humanitarian and financial assistance to regions like Transdniestria and Moldova for energy infrastructure upgrades, while encouraging energy-efficient solutions to mitigate the crisis.
Mains PYQ:
Q What is the significance of Indo-US defence deals over Indo-Russian defence deals? Discuss with reference to stability in the Indo-Pacific region. (UPSC IAS/2020)
The US President-elect Donald Trump has expressed support for H-1B Visas but emphasized balancing immigration policies with protecting American jobs.
AboutH-1B Visa Program
Details
What is it?
Allows U.S. employers to hire foreign workers for specialty occupations requiring:
High expertise.
A bachelor’s degree or higher.
Administered by the U.S. Department of Labor to address skill shortages in the U.S. workforce.
Employment under H-1B is temporary but renewable.
Key Features
Purpose: Provides access to specialized talent unavailable domestically.
Annual Cap: 65,000 new H-1B visas + 20,000 for workers with U.S. master’s degrees or higher.
Exemptions: Workers in higher education institutions, non-profits, or government research organizations are not subject to the cap.
How does it benefit in Indians?
Indians account for the largest group of H-1B beneficiaries (72.3% in FY 2023, ~2.79 lakh approvals).
Fields:
65% employed in computer-related occupations.
Others include architecture/engineering (9.5%) and education (6%).
Median Compensation: $118,000 annually in 2023.
Trends and Policy Changes:
1. Admission Trends:
• Pre-COVID rise (2018: 5.70 lakh; 2019: 6.01 lakh).
• COVID-19 decline (2020: 3.68 lakh; 2021: 1.48 lakh).
• Post-COVID recovery (2022: 4.10 lakh; 2023: 7.55 lakh).
2. Denial Rates:
• Increased during Trump era (2016: 6%; 2018: 24%).
• Declined to 4% by 2021 and stabilized at 2% in 2022.
• High denials during Trump’s term were often overturned upon appeal.
PYQ:
[2020] Indian diaspora has a decisive role to play in the politics and economy of America and European Countries’. Comment with examples.
Recently, China and the United States agreed to renew the Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement for an additional five years.
What new measures were added to the Agreement in 2024?
Limited to basic research: The amended agreement explicitly limits cooperation to basic research and excludes any collaboration in critical and emerging technologies.
This change aims to mitigate fears that sensitive technologies could be exploited by China for military or competitive advantages.
Enhanced Provisions for Researcher Safety: The agreement introduces measures to enhance the safety and security of researchers, ensuring that both parties adhere to standards that protect their respective research environments.
Data Reciprocity and Transparency: New provisions have been established to ensure reciprocity and transparency in data sharing between the two countries, addressing previous concerns about intellectual property rights and data misuse.
Dispute Resolution Mechanism: A mechanism has been included to resolve disputes should either party fail to adhere to the agreed terms, providing a structured approach to handle potential conflicts arising from collaborative projects.
Termination Clause: The agreement includes a clause that allows for the cancellation of proposed projects in cases of “bad faith action,” further safeguarding against potential abuses of the cooperative framework.
What does this indicate about the evolving relationship between the U.S. and China?
The renewal and amendment of the STA reflect a complex relationship between the U.S. and China, characterized by both cooperation and competition:
Affirmation of Cooperation: The extension signals a commitment from both nations to maintain dialogue and collaboration in scientific fields, despite rising tensions in other areas such as trade and technology.
Strategic Guardrails: By implementing new restrictions and guardrails, the U.S. aims to protect its technological edge while still engaging with China in mutually beneficial research areas. This indicates a cautious approach to bilateral relations, balancing cooperation with national security concerns.
Political Dynamics: The incoming administration under Donald Trump is expected to endorse this continuation but may impose additional conditions, reflecting ongoing political scrutiny regarding China’s technological advancements.
How has the U.S. benefited from its collaboration with China under this Agreement?
Access to Chinese Research Ecosystem: The agreement has facilitated access for U.S. researchers to China’s burgeoning research environment, allowing for collaborative projects that leverage both countries’ strengths in various scientific fields.
Increased R&D Investment: The collaboration has contributed to significant increases in research and development investment from both sides, with China’s R&D spending rising dramatically since the agreement’s inception in 1979.
Joint Research Opportunities: The STA has enabled joint research initiatives that have led to advancements in areas such as agriculture, health, environmental science, and more, benefiting both nations through shared knowledge and innovation.
Educational Exchanges: The agreement has promoted mobility for students and scientists between the two countries, fostering educational exchanges that enhance understanding and cooperation at multiple levels.
How will it impact India?
Increased Competition in R&D: The strengthened U.S.-China collaboration, even with restrictions, reinforces China’s position as a global leader in science and technology which intensifies competition for India to keep pace in R&D and innovation.
Geopolitical Leverage: India’s strategic partnerships with both the U.S. and other global powers may be recalibrated, as the U.S. balances its rivalry and cooperation with China, potentially affecting India’s diplomatic and technological engagements.
Opportunity for Strategic Collaboration: India’s robust bilateral S&T agreements and growing research ecosystem could make it an alternative partner for the U.S. and other nations looking to diversify collaborations away from China, boosting India’s global scientific standing.
Way forward:
Enhance R&D Capabilities: India should increase investments in research and development, particularly in emerging and critical technologies, to remain competitive globally and bridge the innovation gap with leading nations.
Strengthen Strategic Partnerships: India should leverage its scientific and technological collaborations with the U.S. and other like-minded countries to position itself as a reliable partner and alternative to China in the global research ecosystem.
Mains PYQ:
Q The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union.” Explain. (UPSC IAS/2021)
US President-elect Donald Trump criticized Panama for charging excessively for US ships’ use of the Panama Canal and threatened a US takeover of the canal.
About Panama Canal:
Geographical Location:
Located in Central America, connecting the Atlantic Ocean (via the Caribbean Sea) to the Pacific Ocean.
80 km long, spanning across the Isthmus of Panama.
Uses a system of locks to raise and lower ships across an elevation of 85 feet (26 meters).
Historical Significance:
French started construction in 1881, led by Ferdinand de Lesseps, but failed.
Completed by the U.S. in 1914, under engineers George Washington Goethals and John Stevens.
Control was transferred from the U.S. to Panama in 1999 under the Torrijos-Carter Treaties (1977).
Present Significance:
Crucial for global trade, reducing travel time between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Strategic military value, especially during the World Wars.
Major contributor to Panama’s economy through tolls and trade-related activities.
Present Geopolitics:
Trump raised concerns about China’s influence in the region, especially Panama’s role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
In recent years, Chinese companies have been involved in infrastructure projects around the Panama Canal, including logistics and energy sectors.
Panama’s 2018 signing of the BRI furthered its ties with China, a development that some view as a challenge to US influence in the region.
India’s stance on a ‘crimes against humanity’ treaty reflects its longstanding reservations about the Rome Statute and the International Criminal Court.
What is India’s stance on the proposed Crimes Against Humanity treaty?
Non-Party to the Rome Statute: India is not a signatory to the Rome Statute and has consistently expressed objections to the ICC’s jurisdiction, particularly regarding the powers of the ICC prosecutor and the role of the UN Security Council in prosecuting international crimes. India argues that it should be able to address such issues through its national legal system rather than through international mechanisms.
Call for In-Depth Study: For 5 years, India has advocated for a comprehensive examination of the need for a dedicated CAH treaty. This reflects its belief that existing frameworks may not adequately address the complexities of CAH.
Concerns Over Duplication: India is wary that a new CAH treaty could overlap with existing laws under the Rome Statute, potentially complicating accountability measures rather than clarifying them.
How does India’s legal framework address crimes against humanity?
Lack of Domestic Legislation: Currently, India does not have specific domestic laws prohibiting crimes against humanity. The absence of such legislation was highlighted by Justice S. Muralidhar of the Delhi High Court, who noted that neither CAH nor genocide is included in India’s criminal law. This gap indicates a need for legislative action to align with international standards.
Emphasis on National Jurisdiction: India maintains that national courts are more suitable for addressing CAH and other international crimes, emphasising its preference for national over international jurisdiction in these matters.
Why should India have proper legislation related to Crime against humanity?
Inadequate Domestic Legislation: Despite ratifying the Genocide Convention, India lacks domestic laws to enforce its provisions, creating a gap in prosecuting crimes like genocide and CAH.
International Accountability: Enacting CAH laws would align India’s legal framework with international standards, fulfilling commitments and enhancing global cooperation on prosecuting international crimes.
Justice for Mass Atrocities: India’s history of communal violence underscores the need for CAH laws to ensure justice, accountability, and deterrence against future atrocities while safeguarding human rights.
Leadership in Human Rights: By adopting CAH laws, India could address global issues like terrorism, advocate for accountability, and position itself as a leader in promoting justice and human dignity.
Empowering National Courts: CAH laws would strengthen Indian courts’ ability to handle serious human rights violations, reinforcing the country’s preference for national jurisdiction over international mechanisms.
What are India’s specific concerns regarding the definitions and scope of crimes against humanity?
Definition of Crimes: India has raised objections to certain definitions within the proposed treaty. It argues against including “enforced disappearance” as a CAH while advocating for “terrorism” to be recognised as such. This reflects India’s broader security concerns and its focus on acts it deems more relevant to its national context.
Scope of Application: India contends that crimes committed onlyduring armed conflicts should be classified as CAH, opposing any broader interpretation that includes peacetime offences. This position underscores India’s strategic interests and its approach to defining accountability in terms of state actions during conflicts rather than in peacetime contexts.
Do you know?
Justice (Retd.) V Ramasubramanian has been appointed as the new chairperson of the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC).
Priyank Kanoongo (former NCPCR chief) and Dr. Justice Bidyut Ranjan Sarangi (Retd.) have been appointed as NHRC Members.
About National Human Rights Commission (NHRC)
A Statutory Body established under the Protection of Human Rights Act (PHRA), 1993.
Chairperson: Former Supreme Court Justice or Chief Justice; appointed by the President.
Members:
Four full-time members:
1 ex-SC Judge (Chairperson),
1 ex-SC Judge,
1 ex-Chief Justice of a High Court,
1 expert in human rights (at least one woman).
Seven ex-officio members: Chairpersons of national commissions (SC/ST, Women, Minorities, etc.) and Chief Commissioner for Persons with Disabilities.
Appointment Process:
Appointed by the President on the recommendation of a committee (PM, Speaker of Lok Sabha, Home Minister, Leaders of Opposition, etc.).
Judicial appointments involve consultation with the Chief Justice of India.
Removal: Requires consultation with the Supreme Court and an order by the President.
Terms of Office:
Term: 3 years or until the age of 70 (whichever is earlier).
Eligible for reappointment but not for other government posts.
Limitations:
Cannot inquire into cases older than one year from the alleged violation.
Functions are recommendatory; lacks direct punitive powers.
Limited jurisdiction over cases involving the armed forces.
Functions:
Inquire into alleged human rights violations.
Recommend interim relief to victims.
Intervene in court proceedings on human rights matters.
Review constitutional and legal safeguards for human rights.
Promote human rights literacy and support NGOs.
Powers:
Can regulate its own procedure.
Exercises powers of a civil court with judicial authority.
Way forward:
Enact Comprehensive Domestic Legislation: India should introduce laws addressing crimes against humanity and other international crimes, aligning with global standards while addressing domestic concerns like terrorism and communal violence.
Advocate for Inclusive Global Frameworks: India can engage constructively in international negotiations on the CAH treaty, pushing for definitions and provisions that address its concerns, such as including terrorism, while leveraging its stance to lead global efforts in promoting accountability and human rights.
Mains PYQ:
Q What do each of the following quotations mean to you? “Condemn none: if you can stretch out a helping hand, do so. If not, fold your hands, bless your brothers, and let them go their own way.” – Swami Vivekanand (UPSC IAS/2020)
