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GS Paper: GS2-19.Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.

  • The war’s many victims

    Context

    Beyond Ukraine’s borders, far beyond the media spotlight, the war has launched a silent assault on the developing world. This crisis could throw up to 1.7 billion people — over one-fifth of humanity — into poverty, destitution and hunger on a scale not seen in decades.

    Impact of the war on the developing world

    • Ukraine and the Russian Federation provide 30 per cent of the world’s wheat and barley, one-fifth of its maize, and over half of its sunflower oil.
    • Together, their grain feeds the poorest and most vulnerable people, providing more than one-third of the wheat imported by 45 African and least-developed countries.
    • At the same time, Russia is the world’s top natural gas exporter, and second-largest oil exporter.
    • But the war is preventing farmers from tending their crops while closing ports, ending grain exports, disrupting supply chains and sending prices skyrocketing.
    • The World Food Programme has warned that it faces the impossible choice of taking from the hungry to feed the starving.
    • It urgently needs $8 billion to support its operations in Yemen, Chad and Niger.
    • But while much of the world has stepped up in solidarity with the people of Ukraine, there is no sign of the same support for the 1.7 billion other potential victims of this war.

    The Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy and Finance

    • The group aims to develop coordinated solutions to these interlinked crises, with governments, international financial institutions and other key partners.
    • 1] On food, the group is urging all countries to keep markets open, resist hoarding and unjustified and unnecessary export restrictions, and make reserves available to countries at the highest risk of hunger and famine.
    • 2] On energy, the use of strategic stockpiles and additional reserves could help to ease this energy crisis in the short term.
    • But the only medium- and long-term solution is to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy.
    • 3] And on finance, the G20 and international financial institutions must go into emergency mode.
    • They must find ways to increase liquidity and fiscal space, so that governments in developing countries can invest in the poorest and most vulnerable, and in the Sustainable Development Goals.
    •  Social protection, including cash transfers, will be essential to support desperate families through this crisis.
    • But many developing countries with large external debts do not have the liquidity to provide these safety nets.

    Conclusion

    The only lasting solution to the war in Ukraine and its assault on the poorest and most vulnerable people in the world is peace.

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  • Why ICJ order on Ukraine matters

    Context

    The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ordered Russia to immediately suspend its military operations in Ukraine. In short, to end the war instantly.

    Breach of the Genocide Convention

    • Ukraine moved the ICJ against Russia accusing it of falsely claiming that Ukrainians are committing genocide in their territory and using this untruthful premise to start an illegal war.
    • This, Ukraine believes, breaches its rights under the Genocide Convention — a treaty that is binding to both Russia and Ukraine.
    • This decision was rendered by the ICJ in response to Ukraine’s application for indication of provisional measures under Article 41 of the ICJ Statute.
    • Provisional measures under the ICJ Statute are the international equivalent of an interim injunction that can be provided by the court to preserve the rights of the parties pending a final decision on the merits of the case.

    Three reasons cited by the ICJ

    1] ICJ’s jurisdiction in the case

    • Since 2014, Russia has been repeatedly accusing Ukraine of committing genocide in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
    •  Just before the military invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned ending the genocide in Ukraine as the reason to use force.
    • Ukraine vehemently rejects this charge.
    • Prima facie, this shows the existence of a “dispute” under Article IX of the Genocide Convention — the compromissory clause that bestows jurisdiction on the ICJ.
    • Self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter: Russia contended that its formal basis for use of force against Ukraine was its right to self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter (a patently illegal argument, but this issue is not before the ICJ).
    • The court held that it had prima facie jurisdiction in the case because the subject matter fell under the Genocide Convention.

    2] Preservation of rights claimed by the parties

    • Ukraine argues that it has a right under the Genocide Convention not to be falsely accused of genocide and rely on this wrong pretext to use force against its territorial integrity.
    • The ICJ held that the objective of indicating provisional measures is the preservation of the rights claimed by the parties, pending the decision on merits.
    • Since the current proceedings were only for provisional measures, the ICJ did not decide definitively whether Ukraine has such a right under the Genocide Convention.
    • Nonetheless, the ICJ found Ukraine’s right plausible, which is adequate for the current purposes.
    • While the court did not decide on whether Russia has breached the Genocide Convention, as this is a question of merits, it did express doubt over whether a country can unilaterally use force against another country for punishing or preventing an alleged act of genocide.

    3] Risk of irreparable harm to Ukraine’s rights

    • The ICJ held that if it does not indicate provisional measures, that is, order cessation of military action, there is a real and imminent risk of irreparable harm to Ukraine’s rights.
    • This is because of the magnitude of destruction that the ongoing war has caused.

    Significance of the order

    • ICJ’s decision is binding on Russia and constitutes part of its international legal obligations.
    • However, the remedy for not complying with ICJ rulings lies with the UN Security Council, which has Russia as a permanent member.
    • But just because authoritarian populist leaders like Vladimir Putin don’t care for international law does not diminish its significance.

    Conclusion

    The weight of global opinion against Russia on its egregious abuse of international law is mounting with each passing day. Russia can keep ignoring this only at grave peril to itself.

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  • Why the West should focus on China

    Context

    The Russian offensive on Ukraine on the night of February 23-34 shocked the world. The trigger for the conflict has been the rise of anti-Russia/Putin and pro-Europe lobby in Ukraine, led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and with the tacit support of the US and the West.

    Background of the conflict

    • The situation became deeply polarised after battle lines were drawn in 2015, with Ukraine’s breakaway Donbas region seeking a merger with Russia, after Crimea’s unification with the latter.
    • Russia has, over the years, quite correctly questioned the relevance of NATO — a grouping of the Cold War era — and its expansion eastwards. 
    • For instance, NATO included the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries of Georgia and Ukraine, earlier part of the Soviet Union, in its “Partnership for Peace” programme, despite Russian objections.

    Implications of war for geopolitics and role of China

    • Geopolitics will never be the same, especially with Germany and Japan announcing militarisation initiatives, polarisation in Europe and the strengthening of the anti-US nexus of China- Russia-Turkey-Iran.
    • Focus moves away from China: A matter of concern is that once again, the attention of the US and the West has been diverted from China, the main adversary, to a war that should not have taken place.
    • Possibility of annexation of Taiwan: In the current conflict, the ineptitude of the US/NATO to support Ukraine with “boots on the ground” is bound to embolden China in its nefarious design to annex Taiwan.
    • This could also lead to increased hostility by China in the resolution of land disputes with the neighbouring countries, as well as in the South and East China seas.

    Consider the question “With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the geopolitics will never be the same again.”Comment. 

    Conclusion

    For India, the greatest lesson is that it will have to meet the Chinese challenge on its own. There is no likelihood of the US or any other nation getting involved in India’s fight with China. Let us focus on atmanirbharta in all its dimensions.

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  • Western sanctions on Russia are like none the world has seen

    Context

    Economic measures to cut Russia off from the world’s financial arteries are the most powerful implements a West unwilling to meet a nuclear adversary on the battlefield has dared wield in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

    Use of sanctions

    • The use of sanction has boomed over the past few decades.
    • Since 2000 the number of individuals and entities on America’s sanctions list has risen more than tenfold to 10,000.
    • Ever more governments, keen to punish military aggression or human-rights abuses but reluctant to go to war over them, have embraced the tactic.

    Sanctions against Russia

    •  After debating whether to make it much harder for Russian banks to process international payments by shutting them out of SWIFT—some European countries feared it would hurt their own banks, too—Western allies agreed to try targeting seven of them, though it has steered clear of Sberbank, Russia’s largest by assets, which plays a big role in processing energy payments. 
    • The most potent financial sanctions, though, have been aimed not at Russia’s commercial banks but at its central bank.
    • In the eight years since annexing Crimea made Russia the target of a first wave of sanctions, Russia has built up reserves (they now total $630bn) and shifted their composition away from dollars to help insulate the economy from further punishment.
    • But reserves become moot, whatever the currency in which they are held, if they cannot be used.
    • America, acting with Europe, has banned a range of parties from transactions with Russia’s central bank.
    • The West has also frozen most of the bank’s assets outside Russia.

    How it will affect Russian economy

    • Within hours of the sanctions taking effect, Russia’s central bank raised its main interest rate from 9.5% to 20% in an attempt to shore up the currency.
    •  Export controls will limit the components Russia can buy for its military and high-tech sectors, denying it goodies ranging from cutting-edge machinery to microchips.
    • The measures apply not just to goods made in America, but to those containing American technology that are made in and shipped from third countries, such as China.
    • For now, consumer goods dear to ordinary Russians like smartphones and home appliances are exempted from such measures.
    • But Apple is no longer selling iPhones or other kit in Russia. It is one of a fast-growing number of Western companies getting out.

    Effectiveness of sanctions

    • Measuring sanctions’ success is hard, not least because of the difficulty of disentangling their effects from other economic, and on occasion military, forces, but there have been few outright successes.
    • A recent success was the squeeze on Libya by America and allies in the 1990s and early 2000s.
    • A mix of sanctions and financial inducements persuaded Muammar Qaddafi to end his wmd programme and stop funding terrorism.
    • The apparent failures of sanctions are many.
    • Sometimes this is because they are fundamentally symbolic, or weakened by interest groups in the countries imposing them.
    • Though the point of sanctions is to exploit asymmetries, doing much more harm to the adversary than to yourself, there are always burdens to be borne by some.
    • There is also a loss to the economy as a whole.
    • The cost of compliance with sanctions for banks and companies has rocketed over the past decade.
    • Financial institutions alone spent over $50bn worldwide in 2020 on screening clients for sanctions risks, according to LexisNexis, a data firm.
    • One thing which weakens sanctions is leakiness. Despite America’s maximum-pressure measures, Iran manages to export an estimated 1m barrels of oil per day as middlemen find ways to disguise the origin of shipments.

    Risks associated with sanctions

    • Collateral damage: The more powerful sanctions are, the greater the risk of collateral damage, particularly when targeted regimes are indifferent to the suffering of citizens.
    • Work in favour of regime: Increasing the harm done can work at least in part in the government’s favour.
    • In Venezuela, a significant number of those opposed to President Nicolás Maduro and his henchmen also oppose the American sanctions putatively aimed at dislodging them.
    • Increase the closeness between countries: Sanctions can also push countries they target into each other’s arms.
    • Russia and China—hit with American sanctions over its mistreatment of Uyghurs as well as its suspected tech-spying—are enjoying their friendliest relations for decades.
    • Alternative infrastructure: It encourages those who fear them to develop alternative financial and technological infrastructures.
    • China is pushing hard in that direction.
    • As well as trying to boost its chip-making, it is creating its own version of swift, called cips, which simplifies cross-border payments in yuan, and developing a digital currency.
    • It has a long way to go.
    • Though usage of the yuan as a currency for international payments is at an all-time high, at just over 3% of the total it still pales beside the dollar, at 40%.
    • As the world economy reels from financial crises, nationalism, trade wars and a global pandemic, sanctions are aggravating existing tensions within globalisation.

    Conclusion

    When used in earnest, sanctions can inflict heavy economic costs on both sides on top of the deprivation inflicted in targeted countries. Even then, they do not always work.

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  • Fragmenting world order, untied nations

    Context

    The outcome that should worry us apart from the devastating consequences for the Ukrainian nation, is the impact the Ukraine crisis is having on the global world order, which is fragmenting in every respect of global interconnectedness — in terms of international cooperation, security, military use, economic order, and even cultural ties.

    Implications of war for global order

    1] Question mark on the relevance of the UN and Security Council

    • Russia’s actions in Ukraine may, in terms of refusing to seek an international mandate, seem no different from the war by the United States in Iraq in 2003, Israel’s bombing of Lebanon in 2006 and the Saudi-coalition’s attacks of Yemen in 2015.
    • But Ukraine is in fact a bigger blow to the post-World War order than any other.
    • It run counter to the UN Charter preamble, i.e. “to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war…”, “to practice tolerance and live together in peace with one another as good neighbours”, as well as Articles 1 and 2 of the ‘Purposes and Principles’ of the United Nations (Chapter 1).
    • Meanwhile, in their responses, other P-5 members such as the United States, the United Kingdom and France did not seek to strengthen the global order either, imposing sanctions unilaterally rather than attempting to bring them to the UN.

    2] Declining nuclear safeguards

    • Russian military’s moves to target areas near Chernobyl and shell buildings near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant show an alarming nonchalance towards safeguards in place over several decades.
    • The world must also consider the cost to the nuclear non-proliferation regime’s credibility: Ukraine and Libya that willingly gave up nuclear programmes have been invaded, while regimes such as Iran and North Korea can defy the global order because they have held on to their nuclear deterrents.

    3] Use of non-state actors

    • There are also the covenants agreed upon during the global war on terrorism, which have been degraded, with the use of non-state actors in the Ukraine crisis.
    • For years, pro-Russia armed militia operated in the Donbas regions, challenging the writ of the government in Kyiv.
    • With the arrival of Russian troops, the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has invited all foreign fighters to support his forces to the country.

    4] Fragmentation of global financial order

    • While analysts have pointed out that the sanctions announced so far do not include some of Russia’s biggest banks in order to avoid the disruption of oil and gas from Russia, the intent to cut Russia out of all monetary and financial systems remains.
    • The arbitrary and unilateral nature of western sanctions rub against the international financial order set up under the World Trade Organization (that replaced the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, or GATT).
    • The obvious fallout of this “economic cancel culture” will, without doubt, be a reaction — a pushback from Russia and an exploration of alternative trading arrangements with countries such as China, India and much of the Eastern Hemisphere which continue to trade with Moscow.
    • For the S-400 missile defence deal, for example, New Delhi used a rupee-rouble mechanism and banks that were immunised from the U.S.’s CAATSA sanctions (or Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) for advance payments.

    5] Isolation of Russia

    • While several governments including the U.S., the U.K. and Germany have persistently said that their quarrel is not with Russian citizens but with their leadership, it is clear that most of their actions will hurt the average Russian citizen.
    • Some of this isolation of its citizens will work to the favour of an increasingly authoritarian Kremlin.
    • Mr. Putin’s response to the banning of Russian channels in Europe and its allies has been to use the western media ban as a pretext to ban opposition-friendly Russian channels as well.

    Takeaways for India

    • India’s abstentionist responses and its desire not to be critical of any of the actions taken by the big powers might keep Indians safe in the short term.
    • But in the long term, it is only those nations that move proactively to uphold, strengthen and reinvent the global order that will make the world a safer place.

    Conclusion

    The events over the past two weeks, set in motion by Russia’s declaration of war on Ukraine, have no doubt reversed many of the ideas of 1945 and 1990, fragmenting the international order established with the UN, ushering in an era of deglobalisation and bringing down another Iron Curtain.

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  • Ukraine invasion and the great geopolitical reset

    Context

    Major wars have significant consequences for the internal and international politics of the combatant nations. Wars between great powers are far more consequential.

    Geopolitical changes triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

    1] New dynamism in great power triangle

    •  Biden hoped to distance Russia from China and focus all of America’s energies on the Indo-Pacific.
    • But Putin chose to align with China and confront the US and Europe with an impossible set of demands including a sphere of influence in Central Europe and turning Ukraine into Moscow’s protectorate.
    • China’s public articulation has underlined “rock-solid” support for Moscow but it is under some pressure to balance between its Russian alliance “without limits” and its deep economic interdependence with the US and Europe.
    • Whichever way this plays out, the current crisis has revealed America’s pole position in the great strategic triangle.

    2] Reinforced US primacy amongst the great powers

    • The US primacy amongst the great powers has been reinforced by the restoration of strategic unity within the West.
    • While many trans-Atlantic differences remain on the nature and extent of sanctions against Russia, the crisis has revealed the enduring sources of Western unity.

    3] Disciplining of Europe

    • Third is the American disciplining of Europe, especially Germany, where illusions of normative soft power and the faith in mercantilism had blinded the continent to geopolitical challenges presented by Russia and China.
    • Europe’s belief that it can enrich itself in the Russian and Chinese markets while expecting Washington to do all the heavy lifting on security is no longer sustainable.
    • The German decision on rearmament announced in the wake of the Russian aggression marks a definitive geopolitical turn in Europe.

    4] EU’s dilemma in energy domain

    • Nowhere is the EU’s Russian dilemma more visible than in the energy domain where Europe is deeply tied to Russian imports of oil, natural gas, and coal.
    • The EU pays $110 billion a year to Moscow for these imports.
    • While stepping up pressure on Europe to drastically reduce energy imports from Russia, Washington is reaching out to Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Iran to fill the gap created by the planned blockade of Russian energy supplies.

    5] Asia is adapting to the change

    • Sensing the dangers from a Sino-Russian axis and fearing that Europe could distract America, Japan is rethinking its nuclear abstinence.
    • South Korea’s president-elect, Yoon Suk-Yeol wants to strengthen ties with the US, and explore potential cooperation with the Quad.
    •  While the ASEAN remains torn between the US and China, many in the region are waking up to the dangers of betting that Beijing’s rise is irreversible, and that the Western decline is terminal.

    Lessons for India

    • The first major conflict amongst the great powers in the 21st century has presented India with multiple challenges, including its long-standing reliance on Russian military supplies.
    •  More immediately, the crisis in Ukraine demands that Delhi move on a war-footing towards a rapid modernisation and expansion of its domestic defence industrial base that is so critical for sustaining India’s strategic autonomy.

    Conclusion

    Unless there is an early diplomatic breakthrough, the conflict between Russia and the West is likely to sharpen in the coming days. But this hinge moment in world politics is also an opportunity for Delhi to increase its heft in the changing global balance.

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  • How invasion of Ukraine could transform nuclear landscape of Asia

    Context

    Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling in Ukraine, has triggered a far more consequential debate on the importance of atomic weapons in deterring Chinese expansionism.

    Background

    • Ukraine agreed in 1994 to give up the nuclear weapons that it inherited from the Soviet Union in return for guarantees on Kyiv’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
    • Clearly, those legal guarantees were no substitute for nuclear weapons.

    Changing stand on nuclear weapons

    • Debate in Japan: In an important statement last week, the former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, called for a national debate on hosting American nuclear weapons on Japanese soil.
    • One element of the debate is the fact that nuclear weapons remain the greatest deterrent, especially against a vastly superior adversary.
    • Korea strengthening nuclear deterrence: In South Korea, which is electing its president this week, front-runner Yoon Suk-yeol has talked of strengthening Seoul’s nuclear deterrence against both Pyongyang and Beijing.
    • Taiwan and Australia developing nuclear submarine: Taiwan, is reportedly developing a nuclear-powered submarine that could offer some deterrence against a Chinese invading force.
    • Australia, which is working with the UK and the US to build nuclear-powered submarines, is accelerating the project after the Ukraine invasion.

    Threat of escalation to nuclear war

    • The threat of escalation to the nuclear level was very much in the mind of NATO’s military planners when the alliance refused to be drawn into a firefight with Russia in Ukraine.
    • Moscow is also conscious of the fact that there are two nuclear weapon powers in Europe — Britain and France.
    • Nuclear sharing arrangement: Russia is also aware of the “nuclear sharing” arrangements between the US and some European allies — Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands.
    • Under this framework, European allies host US nuclear weapons on their soil and authorise their armed forces to deliver American nuclear weapons on Russia.
    • Nuclear sharing also involves continuous consultations on nuclear doctrine and the planning of nuclear operations.
    • The US and its allies are also pursuing a “hybrid war” that boosts Ukrainian resistance against Russian armed forces and raises military, economic, and political costs of Moscow’s aggression.

    Threat of China invading Taiwan

    • Taiwan is far more important for Asian (and global) security than Ukraine is for Europe.
    • Taiwan sits at the heart of the Western Pacific and straddles the sea line of communication in the world’s most dynamic economic arena.
    • It is the main source of silicon chips for the world.
    • When China conquers Taiwan it will dramatically transform the geopolitics of Asia.
    • As Putin becomes more dependent on China, Russia is bound to back Xi Jinping’s ambitions in Asia.
    • This is the context in which China’s eastern neighbours are taking a fresh look at the nuclear option.
    • Nuclear sharing arrangement: On the nuclear front, the debate in Japan and South Korea is about potential nuclear sharing arrangements with the US.
    • In Taiwan and Australia, the emphasis is on developing nuclear-powered submarines.
    • Deployment of strategic weapons: The US too is debating the deployment of new strategic weapon systems in Asia that might encourage China to pause before trying to emulate Russia’s Ukraine adventure.

    Consider the question ” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is going to transform the nuclear landscape of Asia. Comment.”

    Conclusion

    One way or another, Russia’s war in Ukraine is bound to transform the Asian nuclear landscape.

  • Inflection point for the West-led global order

    Context

    The Ukraine crisis has come to a head with Russia biting the bullet and launching “a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

    Russian invasion and response of the West

    • Hours before the invasion, the western countries had imposed a new round of sanctions against Moscow (targeting Russian individuals and banks linked to Mr. Putin’s regime).
    • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suspended certification of Nord Stream 2, a major gas pipeline between Russia and his nation.
    • The European Union has announced a “massive” package of sanctions.
    • Incoherence in response: the West has been incoherent in its response — not being able to present a united front, and worse, not even speaking the same language at times.
    •  For the West, this has been a moment when it has been found wanting — a lack of imagination, lack of will and lack of leadership, all rolled into producing a lackadaisical response to the one of most serious security crises in decades.
    • France has used this moment of crisis in trying to showcase its own leadership credentials.
    • Lack of trans-Atlantic engagement: It turns out that even Mr. Biden has not been able to build the trans-Atlantic engagement around common objectives to be pursued collectively.
    • Energy dependence: With the EU importing 39% of its total gas imports and 30% of oil from Russia, and with the Central and Eastern European countries being almost 100% dependent on Russian gas, the reasons for internal EU dissonance are not that difficult to fathom.

    Implications for Indo-Pacific

    • Emboldening China: This ineffectual western response has emboldened not only Russia but also China as the focus of the West is in danger of moving away from the Indo-Pacific.
    •  The Russia-China ‘axis’ is only getting stronger as the two nations seem ready to take on the West that seems willing to concede without even putting up a fight.

    Conclusion

    Today, the balance of power is once again in flux, and as China develops a strategic partnership with Russia, the future of the West-led global order will be defined by how effectively it responds to the crisis in Ukraine.

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  • India and the Great Power rivalry

    Context

    Germany has become a weaker link in the Western coalition against Moscow and Beijing.

    The US-Russia-China power dynamics

    • There is a convergence between China and Russia on a range of issues from NATO expansion to the AUKUS alliance. 
    • Despite their problems with the US, both Moscow and Beijing want a productive partnership with Washington.
    • Both Russia and China want to leverage the united front to negotiate better terms from America.
    • Exploiting the contradiction between Russia and China: Washington, in turn, wants to explore the cleavages between Moscow and Beijing.
    • Focus on challenges from China: Biden’s outreach to Putin last year was based on the premise that the US could better focus on the challenges from China in the Indo-Pacific if there was a reasonable relationship with Russia in Europe.
    • Putin is trying to take advantage of that proposition by raising the stakes in Europe.
    • Exploiting economic means: If Putin is focused on military means to rewrite the European security order with the US, Xi is focused on the economic means to alter the US ties.
    • Xi is making a big play for the Wall Street bankers who see merits in engagement with Beijing and lobby Washington to scale down the confrontation with China.

    The US resilience

    •  The chaos of American domestic politics and the continuing arguments between the US and its European partners tend to amplify the disagreements within the West.
    •  It would be a mistake for Putin and Xi to mistake Western disagreements for strategic divergence.
    • Consensus on challenging China: The last few years have seen the quick emergence of a new US consensus on challenging China despite the polarisation of the American political class.
    • The idea that the US can’t risk a two-front challenge with Russia and China is popular but mistaken.
    • Power of the US and its allies: Despite the dramatic rise of China and its new partnership with Russia, the united front can’t really match the comprehensive national power of the US and its allies.
    • India is now a strategic partner of the US and faces growing challenges from China.
    • In Asia, Biden has revived the Anglosphere (the AUKUS alliance with the UK and Australia), elevated the Quad to the summit level, and reached out to the ASEAN.
    • In Europe, the US is getting NATO in order.
    • Britain has taken the lead in the diplomatic confrontation with Russia.
    • French President Emmanuel Macron is coordinating with the US in dealing with the Ukraine crisis.
    • Beyond the rebuilding of US alliances, Washington has an important lever which is the exploitation of the domestic political vulnerabilities of “Czar Putin” and “Emperor Xi”.

    Challenge for India

    • New dynamics between two coalitions: India’s approach will depend upon the new dynamic between the two coalitions as well as its own relations with China, Russia, and the US.
    • As both sides consolidate their global coalitions, it will get harder to be in the middle.
    • India would like to see Russia find accommodation with the West in Europe; but if Russia’s relations with the West deteriorate further in Europe, Delhi is unlikely to let Moscow undermine its growing partnership with the US and its allies.

    Conclusion

    With the return of great power rivalry coinciding with India’s deteriorating ties with China, Delhi now stands closer than ever before to the West.

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  • Why UNSC joint statement on nuclear weapons is important

    Context

    The leaders of five nuclear-weapons States — the US, Russia, China, the UK, and France, also known as the P5 issued a joint statement on preventing nuclear war and avoiding the ongoing global arms race.

    Overview of the P5 statement

    • It is not a binding resolution and reiterates some of the core obligations of the NPT.
    • The P5 statement reaffirms that a “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought” because of its “far-reaching consequences”.
    • The statement also expresses a commitment to the group’s Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) obligations and “to prevent the unauthorized or unintended use of nuclear weapons”.
    • Declaring that an arms race would benefit none and endanger all, the P5 have undertaken to:
    • (1) work with all states to create a security environment more conducive to progress on disarmament with the ultimate goal of a world without nuclear weapons.
    • (2) continue seeking bilateral and multilateral diplomatic approaches to avoid military confrontations, strengthen stability and predictability, increase mutual understanding and confidence”.
    • (3) pursue “constructive dialogue with mutual respect and acknowledgment of each other’s security interests and concerns”.

    Bold action on 6 measures

    • Bold action on six fronts is necessary.
    • 1) Chart a path for nuclear disarmament: That member states should chart a path forward on nuclear disarmament.
    • 2) Transparency and dialogue: They should agree to new measures of “transparency and dialogue”.
    • 3) Address nuclear crises: They should address the “simmering” nuclear crises in the Middle East and Asia.
    • 4) Strengthen global bodies: They should strengthen the existing global bodies that support non-proliferation, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
    • 5) Peaceful use of nuclear technology: They should promote the peaceful use of nuclear technology.
    • 6) Elimination of nuclear weapons: they should remind “the world’s people that eliminating nuclear weapons is the only way to guarantee that they will never be used.

    Peace education and the right to peace

    • Peace is necessary for rights, freedom, equality, and justice, and for that reason, we need what Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. called “education in the obvious”— namely, peace education.
    • This is required at multiple levels, ranging across the planetary, global, supranational, regional, national, and local levels of social cognition and action.
    •  UN Resolution 39/11 (November 12, 1984) proclaims that the peoples of our planet have a sacred right to peace and equally solemnly declares that the “preservation of the right of peoples to peace and the promotion of its implementation constitute a fundamental obligation of each State”.
    • The subsequent UN Resolution 53/243 B, declaring a program of action for a culture of peace (1999) also owes a great deal to Gandhi’s legacy and mission.

    Conclusion

    The statement is politically significant given the unimaginable danger posed by the 13,000 nuclear weapons currently believed to be held by a handful of countries, and the growing specter of loose nukes, which may be deployed by armed terrorist groups for nefarious purposes.

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