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GS Paper: GS2-19.Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.

  • A global order caught up in a swirl of chaos

    Context

    Adrift at the end of the 20th century, the world of the 21st century is proving to be highly chaotic.

    Lack of strong European leadership

    • Europe has been undergoing several major changes in recent months
    • Germany, which has steered European politics for almost two wdecades under Angela Merkel, now has a Chancellor (Olaf Scholz) who has hardly any foreign policy experience.
    • Without Germany’s steadying hand, Europe would be virtually adrift in troubled waters.
    • Emmanuel Macron may have been re-elected the President of France, but his wings have been clipped with the Opposition now gaining a majority in the French National Assembly.
    •  The United Kingdom is in deep trouble, if not disarray.
    • Consequently, at a time when actual and moral issues require both deft and firm handling, Europe appears rudderless.
    • Economic impact: Compounding this situation is the negative economic impact of the war in Ukraine.
    • What is evident already is that apart from the spiralling cost of energy, food and fertilizers, quite a few countries confront the spectre of food scarcity given that Ukraine and Russia were generally viewed as the granaries of the world.
    • Apart from this, nations do face several other problems as well, including, in some cases, a foreign exchange crisis.
    • The instruments employed by the West against Russia, such as sanctions, have not had the desired impact as far as the latter is concerned.

    Growing Russia-China closeness and its implications for Indo-Pacific

    • The situation in Europe is still to be decided, but what is also becoming obvious is that outside Europe, the conflict is beginning to take on a different dimension, leading to the emergence of new patchworks of relationships.
    • China’s growing influence in the Pacific region, including in the Indo-Pacific, and further strengthened by the entente with Russia, may hardly be a by-product of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but it has induced fresh energy into a possible conflict between two rival power blocs.
    • Asia unwilling to take sides: Understanding the changing nature of relationships in Asia, and considering that most Asian nations appear unwilling to take sides in the event of a conflict, is important.
    • No unity of purpose: Unlike the unity and the strength displayed by European nations — there is no evidence of any such unity of purpose in the event that China was to launch a conflict with Taiwan.

    Challenges for India

    • India cannot ignore the situation created by the stronger bonds between Russia and China.
    • Uncertainty about Russia: India will need to determine whether Russia can be expected to play a role as a ‘trusted friend’ of India’s.
    • Again, it would be too much to hope that in dealing with China, India can expect the same kind of support it may need from the Quad.
    • China sidelining India: China, however, seems intent on establishing its dominance and also sidelining India in Asia, which New Delhi would have discerned in the course of the virtual BRICS Summit hosted by China in June.
    • Afghanistan challenge: Apart from China, India also urgently needs to come to terms with a Taliban Afghanistan.
    • Sri Lanka Challenge: At this time, the democratic upsurge in Sri Lanka presents India with a fresh set of problems.
    • In a situation where ‘rage’ and ‘anger’ are the dominant sentiments, there is every reason for concern that even governments that have maintained a ‘hands-off’ relationship could become targets of the new forces emerging in Sri Lanka.

    Major developments in West Asia

    • The Abraham Accords in 2020, which brought about the entente between the United Arab Emirates and Israel, has been the harbinger of certain new trends in the tangled web of relationships among countries of West Asia.
    • But even as the U.S.’s relations with Arab nations in West Asia appear to weaken, Russia and China are beginning to play key roles, with Iran as the fulcrum for establishing new relationships.
    • China continues to steadily build on its connections with the region, and with Iran in particular.
    • How India is dealing with the situation: India has been making steady progress in enlarging its contacts and influence in West Asia.
    •  While the India-Israel relationship dates back to the 1990s, the India-UAE relationship has blossomed in the past couple of years.
    • India-Iran relations, however, seem to have reached a stalemate of late.
    • Issues with I2U2: India has joined a U.S.-based group, the I2U2, comprising India, Israel the UAE and the U.S.
    • Details of the new arrangements are unclear, but it is evident that the target is Iran, as China is for the Quad, injecting yet another element of uncertainty into an already troubled region.

    Implications for nuclear deterrence

    • The argument being adduced is that a wide gap exists today in regard to China and India’s nuclear deterrent capabilities, and implicitly blames India for its voluntary ban on testing and its ‘no-first-use’ doctrine from making progress in this arena.
    • What is also implied is that India could overcome the lacuna by seeking the assistance of western nations which have such capabilities and knowledge.
    • Way forward for India: It is important for India to guard against such pernicious attempts at this time to undo its carefully negotiated and structured nuclear policy and doctrine, and be inveigled into any anti-China western move on this front.

    Conclusion

    Geopolitical experts in the West confine their findings at present solely to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, believing that this alone would determine not only war and peace but also other critical aspects as well. Significant developments are also taking place in many other regions of the globe, which will have equal if not more relevance to the future of the international governance system.

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  • With partners, India and Japan can form credible deterrence

    Context

    Last week’s report on Asian nuclear transitions by Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Japan’s debate on its atomic options underline the shared security challenges for Delhi and Tokyo.

    Common nuclear challenge for India and Japan and need for rethink

    • At the root of that common nuclear challenge is the continuing growth in Chinese military power and the rapid modernisation of Beijing’s nuclear arsenal.
    • 1] Modernising and expansion by China: China is modernising and expanding its nuclear arsenal as part of the general military transformation. Some estimates say China’s arsenal could grow to 1,000 warheads by 2030 from about 350 now.
    • 2] Muscular approach of China:  Xi Jinping’s China has taken a more muscular approach to its territorial disputes, including with India and Japan.
    • 3] Reluctance of the world to confront nuclear power: The Ukraine crisis has revealed that if a nuclear weapon power invades and seizes the territory of a neighbour, the rest of the world is reluctant to directly confront the aggression for fear of an escalation to the nuclear level.
    • Russia made this amply clear with its threat to use nuclear weapons if the US and NATO decide to join the war.

    Nuclear disarmament challenge

    • Indian and Japanese capacity to deter China is eroding steadily thanks to the problems with India’s minimum deterrence posture and the US nuclear umbrella over Japan.
    • India and Japan have long presented themselves as champions of nuclear disarmament.
    • Despite its call for total nuclear disarmament, India never agreed to give up its own nuclear weapons.
    •  Japan, as the world’s victim of nuclear bombing, had even a higher moral claim than India as the champion for the global abolition of nuclear weapons.
    • But Japan’s narrative is shaded by one reality—Tokyo’s reliance on the US nuclear umbrella.
    • Today neither Delhi nor Tokyo is ready to sign the 2017 Treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons.
    • It is the problem presented by the expanding Chinese nuclear arsenal and its growing sophistication.
    • Locked in a confrontation with the US, China is determined to raise its nuclear profile.
    • As China closes the economic and military gap with the US, there is a darkening shadow over the credibility of the US-extended deterrence for Japan.
    • This uncertainty is transforming the Japanese security debate.
    • For India, the question is whether its nuclear restraint and policy of minimum deterrence are enough to prevent China’s bullying.

    How Japan is responding to the challenge?

    • In Japan, former prime minister Shinzo Abe had called for a fresh look at Japan’s nuclear policy.
    • He was suggesting that Tokyo must consider “nuclear weapon sharing” with the US.
    • The model is Europe, where several countries including Belgium, Italy, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands have arrangements to participate in the US nuclear weapon deployment and use.
    • This proposal was rejected by the current prime minister.
    • While rejecting nuclear solutions to the problem of deterring China, Japan’s focus has been on raising the defence expenditure, developing sophisticated conventional weapons, beefing up the alliance with the US and widening the circle of Asian as well as European military partners,

    Suggestions in the report

    • Unlike Japan, India has no constraints on its nuclear weapons programme except the ones it has imposed on itself.
    • In the wake of the nuclear tests of 1998, India quickly announced a policy of minimum deterrence and a doctrine of no-first-use of nuclear weapons.
    • The big question is whether this conservatism in India’s nuclear posture can or should be sustained in the face of China’s military modernisation, nuclear expansion and strategic assertiveness.
    • Fresh debate on nuclear policies: The Tellis report, detailed and technical, should provide a basis for a fresh Indian debate about its nuclear weapons policies.
    • Revising US attitude to India’s nuclear weapons: Tellis also calls on the US to revise its attitudes to India’s nuclear weapons programme.
    • In the past, the US insisted on constraining India’s nuclear weapon programme.
    • Today a strong Indian nuclear deterrent against China is critical for the geopolitical stability of Asia and the Indo-Pacific and in the US interest.
    • Facilitating more sophisticated nuclear warheads: Tellis suggests that the US should be prepared to facilitate India’s development of more sophisticated nuclear warheads as well as improve the survivability of the Indian deterrent against the expanding Chinese nuclear arsenal.
    • The US should midwife an agreement under which France would help India accelerate the development of an Indian underwater deterrent based on ballistic missile carrying submarines (SSBN) as well as nuclear attack submarines (SSN),

    Conclusion

    Tellis is calling both Delhi and Washington to reconsider entrenched nuclear assumptions in the two capitals. While the resistance to his ideas will be strong, Delhi and Washington will have to respond, sooner than later, to the dramatic changes in the global environment triggered by the rise and assertion of China.

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    Back2Basics: Nuclear umbrella

    • At the dawn of the nuclear age, to encourage friendly countries to refrain from building nuclear weapons, the United States promised to protect them with U.S. nuclear weapons.
    • This arrangement came to be called the nuclear umbrella. The experts call it extended nuclear deterrence.
    • The umbrella covers the countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
    • It is not a binding legal arrangement included in their security treaties with the United States.
    • It is an informal assurance reinforced by dialogue and, in the case of NATO, cooperative arrangements to deliver U.S. nuclear weapons if authorized by a U.S. president.

  • Lessons on navigating the evolving geopolitics in the Middle East

    Context

    The US President’s visit to Saudi Arabia and Israel highlights not only some new trends that are reshaping the region but also eternal truths about international politics that are lost in the din of public discourse about the Middle East.

    What is the significance of the visit

    1] The US is not abandoning the Middle East

    • Contrary to the popular perception in the US, the region, and India, the US is not about to abandon the Middle East.
    • Many in the US political class believed that given America’s oil independence from the Middle East no longer needed the region.
    • American withdrawal from Afghanistan last year intensified these concerns and the region looked for alternative means to secure itself.
    • But as in the Indo-Pacific and Europe, the Biden Administration has concluded that it can’t cede its regional primacy in the Middle East and is ready to reclaim its leadership.
    • But as in the Indo-Pacific and Europe, the Biden Administration has concluded that it can’t cede its regional primacy in the Middle East and is ready to reclaim its leadership.

    2] No direct involvement

    • While the US will stay put in the Middle East, it is certainly changing the manner in which it acts.
    • In the past, the US saw itself as the sole provider of regional security and was ready to send its troops frequently into the region.
    • While the US does not want to be drawn directly into the region’s wars, it is determined to help its partners develop capabilities to secure themselves.
    • Arab-Israel reconciliation: Efforts are also being taken to produce greater reconciliation among Arabs and Israel and create stronger networks within and beyond the region to strengthen deterrence against adversaries.
    • The current effort to craft a Middle East Air Defence coalition is an example of this,
    • The I2U2 signals that the US no longer views the Middle East in isolation from its neighbourhood.

    3] Setting aside the differences on democracy vs autocracy debate

    • Biden had to modify his sweeping rhetoric about the “conflict between democracies and autocracies” as the principal contradiction in the world.
    • To sustain the US position in the region, Biden had no option but to sit with leaders of monarchies and autocracies that are America’s long-standing partners.

    4] Nation above identities

    • Biden’s focus on national interest found an echo in the Middle East, which is learning to put nation above other identities such as ethnicity and religion.
    • In the past, the region seemed immune to nationalism as it focused on transcendental notions of “pan Arabism” and “pan Islamism”.
    • Although the idea of Arab solidarity on the Palestine issue endures, many Arab leaders are not willing to let that come in the way of normalisation of relations with Israel.
    • A critical section of the Arabs, long seen as irreconcilably opposed to Israel, are now joining hands with the Jewish state to counter threats to their national security from Iran.
    • Many Gulf kingdoms, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are now consciously promoting a national identity among their peoples.
    •  Despite shared religion, Turkey’s leader Recep Erdogan has in recent years sought to undermine many of the Arab regimes.
    • Qatar has often found itself closer to non-Arab Turkey and in opposition to its Gulf Arab neighbours.

    Conclusion

    Delhi, whose Middle East policy today is imbued with greater realism, can hopefully discard the inherited ideological inertia, avoid the temptation of seeing the Middle East through a religious lens, and strive hard to realise the full possibilities awaiting India in the region.

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  • The Ukraine war and the return to Euro-centrism

    Context

    The Russian aggression against Ukraine has led to an unmissable feeling of insecurity in Europe, particularly in Germany.

     Euro-centric world order and new security consciousness

    • For centuries, Europe imagined itself to be the centre of the world — its order, politics and culture.
    • What contributed to its decline? Decolonisation, the emergence of the United States as the western world’s sole superpower, and the rise of the rest dramatically diminished the centuries old domination of the European states and their ability to shape the world in their own image.
    • The political and military aftermath of Russia’s war on Ukraine could potentially tilt the current global balance and take us back to a Euro-centric world order.
    • US dominance: For sure, the U.S. continues to dominate the trans-Atlantic security landscape and this is likely to remain so.
    • And yet, the new security consciousness in Europe will reduce Washington’s ability to continue as the fulcrum of the trans-Atlantic strategic imagination.
    • If wars have the potential to shape international orders, it is Europe’s turn to shape the world, once again.
    • The United States, fatigued from the Iraq and Afghan wars, does not appear to be keen on another round of wars and military engagements.
    •  A pervasive sense of what some described as “existential insecurity” has brought about a renewed enthusiasm about the future of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
    • The European Union (EU) Commission has backed Kyiv’s bid for EU candidature.
    • This new military unity is not just words, but is backed with political commitment and financial resources from the world’s richest economies.
    • Berlin, for instance, has decided to spend an additional €100 billion for defence over and above its €50 billion annual expenditure on defence.

    Implications

    1] Weakened faith in the institutions and globalisation

    • Germany, the engine of this new security thinking in Europe, is coming out of its self-image of being a pacifist nation.
    • There appears little faith in the United Nations or the UN Security Council anymore in Berlin, they have decided to put their faith in a revitalised EU and NATO.
    • European states are deeply worried about globalisation-induced vulnerability and this has set in a rethink about the inherent problems of indiscriminate globalisation.
    • The combined effect of European re-militarisation (however modest it may be for now), its loss of faith in multilateral institutions, and the increased salience of the EU and NATO will be the unchecked emergence of Europe as an even stronger regulatory, norm/standard-setting superpower backed with military power.

    2] Unilateral and Euro-centric decision making

    • The EU already has a worryingly disproportionate ability to set standards for the rest of the world.
    • Instruments such as the Digital Services Act and the Digital Assets Act or its human rights standards will be unilaterally adopted, and will be unavoidable by other parts of the world.
    • While these instruments and standards may in themselves be progressive and unobjectionable for the most part, the problem is with the process which is unilateral and Euro-centric. 

    3] Euro-centric worldview

    • A euro-centric worldview of ‘friends and enemies’ will define its engagement with the rest of the world.
    • India is a friend, but its take on the Ukraine war is not friendly enough for Europe.
    • The EU will lead the way in setting standards for the rest of us and we will have little option but to follow that.
    • For sure, Europe will seek partners around the world: to create a Euro-centric world order, not a truly global world order.

    4] Dilemma for India

    • This unilateral attempt to ‘shape the world’ in its image will also be portrayed as an attempt to counter Chinese attempts at global domination.
    • To oppose or not? When presented as such, countries such as India will face a clear dilemma: to politically and normatively oppose the setting of the global agenda by Europeans or to be practical about it and jump on the European bandwagon.

    Conclusion

    The key message from the European narratives about the Ukraine war is that European states would want to see their wars and conflicts as threatening international stability and the ‘rules-based’ global order.

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  • Caution in buying Russian cruide

    Context

    This week the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times both reported on India emerging as a major buyer of Russian oil.

    Background of rising fuel prices due to Ukraine crisis

    • A significant fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been the rising cost of petroleum.
    • In response to the invasion, Western countries, including the United States and Europe, have imposed an array of sanctions against Russia.
    • Reduced purchases from Russia: Europe and the United States have seen the price of oil steadily rise after they reduced their purchases from Russia.
    • For now, Russia has been able to mitigate the impact of sanctions by selling crude, oil and coal at reasonable prices in greater volumes to newer bulk buyers like India, to combat Europe trying to wean itself off Russian crude.

    Why India increased purchase of Russian oil

    • India has chosen a different route.
    • Cope with rising fuel prices: We are the third-largest importer and consumer of oil in the world and have increased our purchase of Russian oil to cope with rising oil prices elsewhere.
    • We are also refining crude oil or turning it into products like jet fuel and diesel and selling it to Europe and other nations.
    • Curb inflation: Importing Russian crude also helps us curb inflation that has been made worse by rising fuel prices.
    • Halting the fall of the rupee: Procuring discounted Russian oil is an effort by the government to bring down prices and halt the decline in the value of the Indian rupee.
    • India’s behaviour is governed by our best interest, which is the most important element of any astute foreign and economic policy.

    Issues with purchasing oil from Russia

    • The European Union has announced a ban against insuring ships carrying Russian oil, to commence this December.
    • Insurance ban: Countries like India, China and Turkey that are increasing their oil purchases from Russia have six months to find a work-around to the insurance ban by using non-European insurance companies.
    • European companies own most of the ships carrying Russian oil to India.
    • These insurance sanctions will impact the companies that own these ships as well.
    • Dependence for batteries: Apart from geopolitical changes in the world indicating the rise of China, there is a major change: Electric vehicles and electric batteries substituting for non-renewable resources like petroleum and diesel.
    • India cannot afford to be dependent on an unhindered supply of electric batteries from China, given geopolitical considerations and border disputes between the two nations.

    Way forward

    • To weather the new electric era that will no doubt be dotted with territorial wars and national security concerns, India would do well to preempt shortages in the arena – by putting in place factories which will build the electric batteries that will power our futures.
    • What the invasion of Ukraine has taught us is that we need to be more self-reliant and have in-house energy sources.

    Conclusion

    India needs to factor in the implications of comprehensive western sanctions as it increases its purchase of discounted Russian oil.

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  • India is expanding its nuclear arsenal: SIPRI

    India had 160 nuclear warheads as on January 2022 and it appears to be expanding its nuclear arsenal, said the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a defense think tank.

    What is the news?

    • India’s nuclear stockpile increased from 156 in January 2021 to 160 in January 2022.

    Nukes in thy neighbour

    • Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile has remained at 165, SIPRI claimed.
    • China is in the middle of a substantial expansion of its nuclear weapon arsenal, which satellite images indicate includes the construction of over 300 new missile silos.
    • China had 350 nuclear warheads in January 2021 and 2022.

    Why do countries proliferate nuclear weapons?

    • Proliferation models centered on security concerns or dilemmas dominate nuclear literature.
    • Nuclear weapons provide an overwhelmingly destructive force that increases a state’s relative power in comparison to its neighbors.
    • It provides a powerful tool in an anarchic system where superpowers dominate other nation-states sovereignty.
    • Hence weaponizing helps establish a deterrence to prevent war.

    What is the Deterrence Theory?

    • Deterrence is widely defined as any use of threats (implicit or explicit) or limited force intended to dissuade an actor from taking an action (i.e. maintain the status quo).
    • The topic gained increased prominence as a military strategy during the Cold War with regard to the use of nuclear weapons.
    • It is related to but distinct from the concept of mutual assured destruction, which models the preventative nature of full-scale nuclear attack that would devastate both parties in a nuclear war.
    • The central problem of deterrence revolves around how to credibly threaten military action or nuclear punishment on the adversary despite its costs to the deterrer.

    Issues in Nuclear Disarmament

    • Notion of Nuclear ‘Haves’ and ‘Have-Nots’: The proponents of disarmaments are themselves nuclear armed countries thus creating a nuclear monopoly.
    • Concept of Peaceful Nuclear Explosion (PNE): conducted for non-military purposes such as mining.

    India’s commitment for de-nuclearization

    India has always batted for a universal commitment and an agreed global and non-discriminatory multilateral framework.

    • It has outlined a working paper on Nuclear Disarmament submitted to the UN General Assembly in 2006.
    • India participated in the Nuclear Security Summit process and has regularly participated in the International Conferences on Nuclear Security organised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
    • India is also a member of the Nuclear Security Contact Group (but has signed off the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)).
    • India has expressed its readiness to support the commencement of negotiations on a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT).
    • India couldn’t join the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) due to several concerns raised by India.
    • India has piloted an annual UNGA Resolution on “Measures to Prevent Terrorists from Acquiring Weapons of Mass Destruction” since 2002, which is adopted by consensus.

    Back2Basics: India’s Nuclear Doctrine

    • This was first articulated by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee on May 27, 1998, days after India had undertaken a series of nuclear tests in Pokhran.
    • It outlined various principles:
    1. Building and maintaining a Credible Minimum Deterrence
    2. Posture of ‘No First Use’– nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian Territory or on Indian forces anywhere
    3. Massive Nuclear retaliation to a first strike will be designed to inflict unacceptable damage
    4. Non-use against non-nuclear states
    5. In response to biological or chemical weapons, India will retain the option of retaliating with nuclear weapons

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  • The return of the great power rivalries

    Context

    The post-Cold War period of peace in Europe is more an aberration than norm in the continent’s history of conflicts.

    Background of the First World War

    • The Russian power had collapsed in its far east after the war with Japan in 1904-05.
    • Faced with the erosion of Russian influence and the rise of Wilhelmine Germany, which together threatened to alter Europe’s balance of power, France and Britain, competing colonial powers, came together. 
    • France had already reached an alliance with Russia.
    • The three would later form the Triple Entente, triggering a dangerous security competition in Europe with the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy), which would eventually lead to the First World War in 1914.
    • What triggered the great power security competition in the run-up to the First World War was the phenomenal rise of Wilhelmine Germany as a military and industrial power and the regional hegemons’ response to it.

    Similarities with the past

    • When Otto von Bismarck became the Minister-President of Prussia in September 1862, there was no unified German state.
    •  Bismarck adopted an aggressive foreign policy, fought and won three wars — with Denmark, Austria and France — destroyed the confederation, established a stronger and larger German Reich that replaced Prussia.
    • Bismarck stayed focused on transforming Germany internally in his last two decades.
    • It was on the foundation Bismarck built that Wilhelmine Germany turned to weltpolitik in the early 20 century, seeking global domination.
    • If Bismarck inherited a weak, loosely connected group of German speaking entities in 1862, Russian President Vladimir Putin got a Russia in 2000 that was a pale shadow of what was the Soviet Union.
    • Bismarck spent his years in power expanding the borders of Germany and building a stronger state and economy.
    • The post-Cold War Russia initially stayed focused on the restoration of the state and the economy, and then sought to expand its borders and challenge the continent’s balance of power — first the Crimean annexation and now the Ukraine invasion.
    • While NATO’s expansion deepened Russia’s security concerns, driving it into aggressive moves, Russia’s aggression has strengthened NATO’s resolve to expand further into Russia’s neighbourhood.

    Offensive realism

    • Offensive realists argue that “revisionist powers” tend to use force to rewrite the balance of power if they find the circumstances are favourable, while the status quo powers, or the existing regional hegemons, would seek to thwart any new country attaining more power at their expense.
    • The result of this type of competition is permanent rivalry and conflict.
    • One major difference between the era of Wilhelmine Germany and modern Russia is that there were no well-defined international laws in the 19th and early 20th centuries.
    • The international system has evolved ever since.
    • But its basic instincts, as realists would argue, have not changed much.
    • Mr. Putin’s Russia is not the first country that violated the sovereignty of a weaker power and flouted international laws in the “rules-based” order.

    Future of Europe’s security

    • Russia apparently had two strategic objectives in Ukraine —
    • One, to expand Russian borders and create a buffer.
    • And two, to reinforce Russia’s deterrence against NATO.
    • While Russia has succeeded, though slowly, in expanding its borders by capturing almost all of Ukraine’s east, the war has backfired on its second objective.
    • Russia’s inability to clinch a quick outright victory in Ukraine and the tactical retreats it has already made have invariably dealt a blow to the perception of Russian power that existed before the war.
    • This has strengthened NATO, driving even Sweden and Finland into its arms. Besides, the economic sanctions would leave a long-term hole in Russia’s economy.
    • But a Russia that is bogged down in Ukraine and encircled by NATO need not enhance Europe’s security.
    • As Henry Kissinger said at Davos, Russia had been and would remain an important element in the European state system.

    Conclusion

    The prospects are bleak. There will not be peace in Europe unless either Russia accepts its diminished role and goes into another spell of strategic retreat or Europe and the West in general accommodate Russia’s security concerns. Both look unrealistic as of today.

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  • Ukraine conflict won’t make the US abandon Indo-Pacific strategy

    Context

    When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific.

    The Challenge of balancing China and Russia

    • There are two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question.
    • 1] Engagement with allies: When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific.
    • Biden came to power with a determination to make the Indo-Pacific the highest priority of his foreign policy.
    • He is not going to abandon that objective in dealing with the unexpected crisis in Europe.
    • The assumption that China was the principal challenge and Russia was less of a threat led Biden to meet Putin in June 2021 to offer prospects for a reasonable relationship with Russia in order to devote US energies to the China question.
    • But Putin’s calculations led him towards a deeper strategic partnership with China
    • But America’s assessment of the Russian and Chinese threats has not changed since the war began in Ukraine.
    • The idea that China will gain from the Russian war in Ukraine has also proven to be false.
    • Expectations that Russia’s triumph in Ukraine will be followed by a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan have begun to dissipate.
    • Meanwhile, China is reeling under self-inflicted problems, most notably Xi Jinping’s zero Covid strategy and his crackdown on the large internet companies.
    • The costly foreign policy of China: Beijing’s prospects look a lot less rosy than before as the Chinese economy slows down and XI’s foreign policy turns out to be quite costly for China.
    • The muscular approach of China: In Asia, China’s muscular approach to disputes with its neighbours has helped strengthen the US alliances, create new forums like the AUKUS, elevate old ones like the Quad to a higher level, and consolidate the strategic conception of the Indo-Pacific.
    • 2] Coordination with allies and partners: Biden’s lemma to the theorem on a two-front strategy is a simple one — that Washington will address the simultaneous challenge in Europe and Asia not by acting alone but in coordination with allies and partners. 
    • The idea was rooted in the recognition that alliances and partnerships are America’s greatest strength and most important advantage over Russia and China.

    Engagement with Asia

    • ASEAN: This week’s summit level engagement with the ASEAN comes after sustained high-level US outreach to the region since the Biden Administration took charge.
    • In northeast Asia, the election of Yoon Suk-yeol as the president of South Korea has tilted the scales slightly towards the US in the continuing battle for influence between Beijing and Washington.
    • The US is also actively trying to reduce the differences between its two treaty allies in the region — South Korea and Japan.
    • Asia’s new coalitions are a response to Xi Jinping’s unilateralism and his quest for regional hegemony.
    • India’s enthusiasm for the Quad can be directly correlated to Xi’s military coercion on the disputed frontiers with India.

    Implications for India

    • The two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question have worked well for India.
    • Tolerance toward India-Russia engagement: For one, the US’s emphasis on the long-term challenge from China has meant that Washington is willing to tolerate India’s engagement with Russia.
    • Time for the diversification of defence ties: This gives India time to diversify its defence ties that have been heavily dependent on Russia.
    • The US emphasis on partnerships rather than unilateralism in dealing with the China challenge means India’s agency in the region can only grow.
    • The Quad allows Delhi to carve out a larger role for itself in Asia and the Indo-Pacific in collaboration with the US and its allies.

    Conclusion

    Contrary to the initial assumptions that America is on the retreat and the West is in disarray, it is Moscow and Beijing that are on the defensive as the war in Ukraine completes three months.

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  • Absence of Roe v Wade won’t just impact the US

    Context

    The leak of an initial draft majority opinion of the US Supreme Court voting to overturn the decision in Roe v Wade has sent shockwaves across liberal and conservative quarters alike, globally.

    Background of the Roe v Wade case

    • Right to abortion: While locating the right of privacy within the guarantee of personal liberty enshrined in the fourteenth amendment of the American constitution, Roe embodies a supervening constitutional right to abortion emanating from this right of privacy.
    • The right to abort was held to be a constitutionally protected right within the right of privacy.
    • Roe, the 1973 outcome of an unmarried woman’s crusade for bodily autonomy, had declared overbroad, and consequently unconstitutional, a provision of the Texas Penal Code which permitted only those abortions that were “procured or attempted by medical advice to save the life of the mother”.
    • The decision simultaneously recognised the state’s interest in protecting the life of the foetus as also the life of the mother. 
    • Roe is not only relevant as a progressive trailblazer for reproductive rights in the United States but is also fundamental to constitutional jurisprudence globally for the interpretative tools it employed.

    Implications of overturning Roe v Wade

    • Political considerations vs judicial responsibility: The overturning of Roe is more than the mere abdication of the judicial responsibility to protect individual rights — it signals a dangerous trend of courts making long-standing determinations of legal rights based on transient political considerations.
    • Incursion into women’s right to abort: It would also mean legitimisation of state incursions into women’s right to abort and consequently their right to bodily autonomy and liberty, in addition to forcing them to move to states with enabling laws to procure abortions, leading to issues of access and affordability of abortions.
    • While the impact of Roe’s absence would most profoundly be felt in the US, it is likely to embolden conservative anti-abortion voices across the world.
    • Limits of judicial activism: It will inevitably also raise fundamental questions on the limits of judicial activism aimed at protecting the rights of persons and classes, which do not find explicit mention within a country’s constitutional framework.
    • Possibility of a conservative approach to abortion cases: In 2021, the abortion laws in India underwent substantial changes, with the introduction of the Medical Termination for Pregnancy (Amendment) Act, 2021 which, in addition to destigmatising pregnancies outside marriage by introducing the nomenclature of “any woman or her partner”, also increased the upper gestational limits within which pregnancies are legally terminable.
    • The Act, however, carries ambiguities and leaves room for both judicial and executive interpretation.
    • As cases of subjective determination arise, the Indian judiciary will be called upon to reconcile the right to privacy recognised in Puttaswamy with the permissible limits of abortion in the Act.

    How does Roe v Wade apply in the Indian context?

    • In KS Puttaswamy v Union of India, Justice Chandrachud referred to Roe and Planned Parenthood while reading the right to privacy into the existing framework of constitutionally protected fundamental rights subject to “just, reasonable and fair” restrictions.
    • Recognising derivative rights: In the lifetime of the Indian Supreme Court, recognising derivative rights within the existing framework of fundamental rights has been regularly witnessed — be it rights during arrest and detention, the right to express one’s sexual and gender identity, or rights against harassment at the workplace, to cite a few.
    • Setback to transformative constitutionalism: In the Indian context, the overturning could be seen as a setback to the celebrated doctrine of transformative constitutionalism, which sees the Indian Constitution as a “living document” that moulds, adapts and responds to changing times and circumstances.

    Conclusion

    The likelihood of the overturning of Roe leading to more conservative approaches to judicial interpretation in abortion rights cases, cannot be ruled out.

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  • India, Europe and the Russian complication

    Context

    The re-election of Emmanuel Macron as the president of France on Sunday has sent a sigh of relief across Europe and North America. Delhi too is pleased with the return of Macron, who laid a strong foundation for India’s strategic partnership with France.

    Why France election matters to the regional and domestic order in Europe

    • Unlike the Soviet Union, which sought to shape European politics though left-wing parties, Russia today influences European politics through right-wing parties.
    • Victory for Marine Le Pen, Macron’s opponent, would have dramatically complicated the geopolitics of Europe.
    • Le Pen, like so many other right-wing leaders in Europe, has close ties to Vladimir Putin.
    • Le Pen’s victory would have not only altered France’s international trajectory, but also shaken the EU to its political core.

    Three factors shaping the transformation of India’s ties with Europe

    • Russia’s threat to the regional and domestic order in Europe is among multiple factors shaping Delhi’s intensifying engagement with Brussels.
    • Three major external factors are facilitating the transformation of India’s ties with Europe.

    1] Russian Question

    • For India, a normal relationship between Russia and the West would have been ideal.
    • But Russia’s confrontation with the West comes during India’s rapidly expanding economic and political ties to Europe and America.
    • Delhi might be sentimental about India’s historic Russian connection but it is not going to sacrifice its growing ties to the West on that altar.
    • Russia’s declining economic weight and growing international isolation begins to simplify India’s choices.
    • During the last few weeks, Delhi has insisted that its silence is not an endorsement of Russian aggression.
    • India’s position has continued to evolve.
    • Delhi’s repeated emphasis on respecting the territorial integrity of states is a repudiation of Russia’s unacceptable aggression.
    • Meanwhile, geographic proximity and economic complementarity have tied Europe even more deeply to Russia.
    • The EU’s annual trade with Russia at around $260 billion is massive in comparison to India’s $10 billion.
    • Putin’s reckless invasion of Ukraine has compelled Europe to embark on a costly effort to disconnect from Russia.
    • The war in Ukraine has certainly presented a major near-term problem that needs to be managed by Delhi and Brussels.

    2] China Question

    •  Moscow has been deepening ties with Beijing for more than two decades triggering many anxieties in Delhi.
    •  In February, Putin travelled to Beijing to announce a partnership “without limits”.
    • India has no option but to manage the consequences of the Russian decision.
    • In the last two decades, China has emerged as a great power and now presents a generational challenge for Indian policymakers.
    • That challenge has been made harder by Putin’s alliance with Xi Jinping.
    • As Delhi strives to retain a reasonable relationship with Moscow, Europe emerges as an important partner in letting India cope with the China challenge.
    •  Thanks to the growing problems of doing business with Xi’s China, Beijing’s geopolitical alliance with Moscow, and the rapid deterioration of Sino-US relations, Brussels is ready to invest serious political capital in building purposeful strategic ties with India.

    3] American Question

    • Until recently it appeared that Europe’s calls for “strategic autonomy” from the US were in sync with India’s own worldview.
    • But the Ukraine crisis has underlined the US’s centrality in securing Europe against Russia.
    • In Asia, Chinese assertiveness has brought back the US as a critical factor in shaping peace and security.
    • Washington wants a strong Europe taking greater responsibility for its own security; it would like Delhi to play a larger role in Asia and become a credible provider of regional security.
    • Above all, America wants India and Europe to build stronger ties with each other.

    Conclusion

    For the first time since independence, India’s interests are now aligning with those of Europe. Together, Delhi and Brussels can help reshape Eurasia as well as the Indo-Pacific.

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