GS Paper: GS2-19.Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.

Context

Risks in 2022 could be both domestic and geopolitical, with many precepts that the world has been accustomed to being at risk. Democracy itself could face serious headwinds this year.

 Challenges to democracy

• The world has recently seen the rise of authoritarian rulers in many countries.
• What is worrisome is that democratic tenets which have been under attack in recent years appear set to face more onslaughts this year.
• The United States, which was widely viewed as a major bulwark for democracy, appears to have developed certain pathological infirmities.

Geopolitical challenges and risks

[1] Disruption by China

• The role of China is possibly the most disrupting one, given the challenge it poses to the existing international order.
• Militarily, China is openly challenging U.S. supremacy in many areas, including ‘state-of-the-art weaponry’ such as hyper-sonic technology.
• China is now threatening Taiwan, which could well become one of the flashpoints of conflict in 2022.
• The dip in China’s economic profile in the past year and more could also lead to new tensions in the Asia-Pacific region in 2022.

[2] Russia-Ukraine conflict

• The other major risk of a war in 2022, stems from the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine — the latter being backed by the U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces.
• During the past three decades, NATO has expanded its reach almost a 1,000 miles to the east in violation of an earlier tacit understanding.
• Russia appears determined that Ukraine should be the ‘last frontier’ and, if need be, ensure this through military force.
• The situation has grave possibilities and could result in a series of cyclical outcomes with considerable damage potential.

[3] Instability in the vast region

• Unrest in Kazakhstan: The current unrest in Kazakhstan, which till recently was one of the more stable Central Asian nations, is perhaps symptomatic of what is in store.
• Recent events in Kazakhstan demonstrates a sharper cleavage between the U.S.-led West and its principal opponents, Russia and China.
• This is not a good sign for the world already wracked by a series of coups or internecine strife as in Ethiopia, Libya and certain regions of West Asia and North Africa.

[4] Return of Taliban and security implications for India

• Shift in balance of power: Of particular significance to India is that the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan has led to a material shift in the balance of power in India’s periphery.
• Developments in Afghanistan have fuelled the ambitions of quite a few ‘anti-state militant groups’ across the region.
• Even in Pakistan, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has become energised and is enlarging its sphere of action to other parts of Asia, notably Kazakhstan.
• This will have an unsettling effect across large parts of Asia.
• New evidence suggests that on India’s eastern flank, viz. Indonesia, a resurgence of radical Islamist activities is taking place.
• The Jemaah Islamiyah has reportedly become more active in Indonesia.

[5] India’s border issue with China

• The most serious issue that India confronts today is how to deal with a China that has become more confrontational.
• India’s membership of the Quad still rankles as far as China’s psyche is concerned, and during 2022, may well result in China embarking on new adventurist actions at many more points on the Sino-Indian border compelling India to react.
• Additionally, India will need to determine how best to respond to China’s provocations.
• Strengthen military posture: India would need to strengthen its military posture, both as a means to deter China and also to convince India’s neighbours that it can stand up to China.

Challenges ahead for India

• Challenge in Central Asia: Diplomatically, in 2022, India may find itself vulnerable in dealing with the turmoils which have occurred in two areas of strategic interest to it, viz. Central Asia and West Asia.
• Challenge in West Asia: In West Asia, the challenge for India is how to manage its membership of the Second Quad (India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the U.S.) with the conflicting interests of different players in the region.
• Limits to balancing: There is a limit to the kind of balancing act that India can perform, whether it be with regard to buying S-400 missile systems from Russia, risking potential sanctions from Washington under Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) or manoeuvering between the Arab States, Israel, Iran and the U.S. in West Asia.

Conclusion

Facing a host of unprecedented challenges, India’s leaders and diplomats must not only take stock of the dangers that exist but also be ready on how to manage the risks that are well evident.

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Context

South-East Asian countries are increasingly wary of their giant neighbour.

Background of dispute

• Disputes in the South China Sea go back decades.
• But it was only ten years ago that China, which makes maritime claims for nearly the whole sea, greatly upped the ante.
• Countries involved: They involve Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam, all with contesting claims.
• China provoked a stand-off that left it in control of an uninhabited atoll, Scarborough Shoal, which under un maritime law clearly belongs to the Philippines.
• Then China launched a massive terraforming exercise, turning reefs and rocks into artificial islands hosting airstrips and bases.

China’s strong-arm tactics

• China’s long-term aim is to project Chinese power deep into the South China Sea and beyond, and to hold the Americans away during any conflict.
• The immediate aim, though, is to dominate politically and economically as much as militarily.
• China has challenged oil-and-gas activity by both Indonesia and Malaysia, and sent drilling rigs to both countries’ eezs and continental shelves.
• It has bullied foreign energy companies into dropping joint development with Vietnam and others.

Implications

• China has paid a diplomatic price.
• Impact on relations with ASEAN: Had Mr Xi engaged in none of the terraforming and bullying, China would be better admired among members of the ten-country Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN).
• Naval presence of the US: The United States and its Western allies have upped their naval presence in the sea, welcomed by most ASEAN members.

Negotiation on Code of conduct on South China Sea

• For years China dragged its feet on agreeing with ASEAN a code of conduct on the South China Sea, a principle agreed on 20 years ago in order to promote co-operation and reduce tensions.
• These days, China likes to play willing.
• China is demanding, in effect, the right of veto over ASEAN members’ naval exercises with foreign powers.
• It also wants to keep out foreigners from joint oil-and-gas development.
• Such demands are unacceptable to members.

Conclusion

Despite China’s efforts to establish its wild claims of sovereignty, China has been facing sustained resistance from the ASEAN countries.

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Why vaccination gap is cause of worry

• By the end of May 2021, only 2.1% of Africans had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
• A widely vaccinated world population is the only way to end the pandemic; otherwise, the multiplication of variants is likely to undermine the effectiveness of existing vaccines.
• Vaccination is also a prerequisite for lifting the restrictions that are holding back our economies and freedoms.
• If the vaccination gap persists, it risks reversing the trend in recent decades of declining poverty and global inequalities.
• Such a negative dynamic would hold back economic activity and increase geopolitical tensions.
• The cost of inaction would for sure be much higher for advanced economies than what we collectively would have to spend to help vaccinate the whole world.
• The International Monetary Fund has proposed $50 billion plan in order to be able to vaccinate 40% of the world population in 2021 and 60% by mid-2022.

Need to resist the vaccine nationalism

• To achieve the goal set by IMF, we need closely coordinated multilateral action.
• We must resist the threat posed by linking the provision of vaccines to political goals and vaccine nationalism.
• The EU has been vaccinating its own population, while exporting large volumes of vaccines and contributing substantially to the vaccines roll-out in low-income countries.
• The EU has also exported 240 million doses to 90 countries, which is about as much as used within the EU.
• One-third of all COVAX doses delivered so far have been financed by the EU.
• India’s Vaccine Maitri is another example of global solidarity.
• However, this effort is still far from sufficient to prevent the vaccination gap from widening.

Way forward

• To fill widening vaccination gap, countries with the required knowledge and means should increase their production capacities, so that they can both vaccinate their own populations and export more vaccines.
• All countries must avoid restrictive measures that affect vaccine supply chains.
• We also need to facilitate the transfer of knowledge and technology, so that more countries can produce vaccines.
• Voluntary licensing is the privileged way to ensure such transfer of technology and know-how.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic has reminded us that health is a global public good. Our common global COVID-19 vaccine action to close the vaccination gap must be the first step toward genuine global health cooperation, as foreseen by the Rome Declaration recently adopted at the Global Health Summit.