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GS Paper: GS2-19.Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.

  • The ‘Difficult Four’ Countries

    A UK think-tank ‘Royal Institute of International Affairs’ has listed India in ‘Difficult 4’; clubs India with China, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.

    This newscard helps analyse the Western esp. that of the EU’s perception of India and its global image under the present regime.

    What is the news?

    • A report called ‘Global Britain, Global Broker’ has warned the UK government to consider India as more of a rival that a cooperative partner.
    • It accepts the fact that India is set to be the largest country in the world by population very soon and will have the third-largest economy and defence budget at some point in this decade.
    • But it cautions that gaining direct national benefit from the relationship, whether economically or diplomatically, will be difficult for the UK government.
    • The report also accepts India’s importance to the UK as being “inescapable”.

    The ‘Difficult Four’

    • Clubbing India with China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey as the “difficult four”, the report says the Johnson government should be more realistic about developing deeper ties with India.
    • They may be important to the UK’s commercial interests, but they will be rivals or, at best, awkward counterparts on many of its global goals, the report warns.
    • India is now classed as a country, destined to count among the UK’s “rivals” or “awkward counterparts” as it pursues its global goals.

    India has had bitter (colonial) past

    • The think-tank strikes a note of caution over the two countries’ shared colonial history proving a stumbling block to the promise of a deeper relationship.
    • India has a long and consistent record of resisting being corralled into a ‘Western’ camp.
    • As a result, India is always on the list of countries with which a new UK government commits to engage.
    • But it should be obvious by now that the idea of a deeper relationship with India always promises more than it can deliver.
    • The legacy of British colonial rule consistently curdles the relationship.

    Indian flaws

    • The report points to India’s “complex, fragmented domestic politics”, which make it one of the countries resistant to open trade and foreign investment.
    • It highlights concerns raised by domestic groups as well as the UN over a “crackdown on human rights activists and civil society groups” not being actively challenged by the judiciary.
    • It raises concern over India’s pursuance of extreme right-winged policies. Indian domestic politics also has entered a more ethnic-nationalist phase, the report argues.
    • Against this backdrop, the report reflects on the prospect of including India within any new Democratic 10 or D10 coalition of 10 leading democracies.

    Try this question from 2019 CS Mains:

     

    Q.What are the challenges to our cultural practices in the name of secularism? (150W)

    UK’s resentment

    • In a critique of India’s diplomatic behaviour, the report points out that despite border clashes with China, “India did not join the group of countries that criticized China at the UN in July 2019 over HR violations in Xinjiang.
    • India has also been muted in its criticism of the passage of the new national security law in Hong Kong.

  • Europe’s China gambit will fall short of its stated goals

    Thought the article is not directly related to India, the conclusion of the investment treaty between the EU and China serves as the prelude to the post-pandemic world order which surely matters for India. The article explains the implications of the agreement.

    Investment agreement between EU and China

    • Recently, the EU and China announced the completion of a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) between the two.
    • The CAI gives European firms enhanced access to the Chinese market, removes (or relaxes) Chinese government requirements on joint ventures and technology transfer in some sectors.
    • The European Commission has claimed that the CAI allows the EU to maintain its “policy space”, especially in “sensitive” sectors such as energy, infrastructure, agriculture, and public services
    • The deal also promises equal treatment with state enterprises and greater regulatory transparency in China.
    • Moreover, the Chinese government has undertaken some obligations on environmental sustainability and labour rights, notably by agreeing to make “continued and sustained efforts” to ratify the Forced Labour Convention.

    Reaction to the agreement

    • The US reaction ranged from disappointment to outright hostility.
    • The incoming Biden administration would have preferred a unified front against China, by striking an economic deal with Europe first.
    • For others, it was the EU’s apparent misjudgement on China’s human rights promises.

    Post-pandemic world order and role of democracies

    • The Europe-China agreement underscores a fundamental question of the post-pandemic world order: Can democracies remain true to their values while engaging in trade and investment with China?
    • To answer that, we must recognize two facts.
    • First, it is impossible to decouple the economies of the West from the Chinese economy without causing an economic catastrophe.
    • Second, there is little that Western countries can do to reshape China’s state-driven economic model or repressive human- and labour-rights regime.

    What should be the approach in dealing with China

    • The West should pursue more limited, more attainable, and ultimately more defensible goals.
    • Two goals are paramount.
    • First, trade and investment rules should be such that Western firms and consumers are not directly complicit in human-rights abuses in China.
    • Second, such rules should safeguard democratic countries against Chinese practices that could undermine their domestic institutional arrangements on labour, environment, technology, and national security.

    Lack of clarity over arbitration mechanism

    • The agreement contains an arbitration scheme that enables the parties to bring violation complaints against each other.
    • Arbitration scheme could serve as a means for the Chinese government to challenge specific entry barriers against Chinese firms.
    • How much this mechanism will be sensitive towards the issues such as treatment given to workers or the environmental protection is not clear.
    • Similarly, how much deference will panels show to exceptions to market access based on “national security” considerations is not clear.

    Conclusion

    We should not judge the CAI by whether it enables Europe to export its system and values. We should judge it by whether it allows Europe to remain true to its own.

  • Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

    Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt have agreed on to resume negotiations to resolve their decade-long complex dispute over the Grand Renaissance Dam hydropower project in the Horn of Africa.

    Note: You never know when UPSC might switch map based questions away from the Middle East and SE Asia.

    Considering this news, the UPSC may ask a prelim question based on the countries swept by River Nile/ various dams constructed/ landlocked countries in the African continent etc.

    Also read

    [Burning Issue] Ethiopian Crisis and the Geopolitics

    Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

    • Spearheaded by Ethiopia, the 145-meter-tall (475-foot-tall) Grand Renaissance Dam hydropower project, when completed, will be Africa’s largest.
    • Its construction was initiated in 2011 on the Blue Nile tributary of the river that runs across one part of Ethiopia.
    • The Nile is a necessary water source in the region and Egypt has consistently objected to the dam’s construction, saying it will impact water flow.
    • The long-standing dispute has been a cause of concern for international observers who fear that it may increase conflict between the two nations and spill out into other countries in the Horn of Africa.

    What is the dispute about?

    • The Nile, Africa’s longest river, has been at the centre of a decade-long complex dispute involving several countries that are dependent on the river’s waters.
    • At the forefront of this dispute are Ethiopia and Egypt, with Sudan having found itself dragged into the issue.
    • The main waterways of the Nile run through Uganda, South Sudan, Sudan and Egypt, and its drainage basin runs through several countries in East Africa, including Ethiopia.

    Concerns over the dam

    • Given the dam’s location on the Blue Nile tributary, it would potentially allow Ethiopia to gain control of the flow of the river’s waters.
    • Egypt lies further downstream and is concerned that Ethiopia’s control over the water could result in lower water levels within its own borders.
    • In addition, Egypt proposed a longer timeline for the project over concerns that the water level of the Nile could dramatically drop as the reservoir fills with water in the initial stages.
    • Sudan’s location between Egypt up north and Ethiopia down south has caused it to become an inadvertent party to this dispute.
    • But that isn’t all; Sudan to is concerned that if Ethiopia were to gain control over the river, it would affect the water levels Sudan receives.

    Why does Ethiopia want this dam?

    • Ethiopia’s goal is to secure electricity for its population and to sustain and develop its growing manufacturing industry.
    • Addis Ababa anticipates that this dam will generate approximately 6,000 megawatts of electricity when it is completed, that can be distributed for the needs of its population and industries.
    • In addition to its domestic requirements, Ethiopia may sell surplus electricity to neighbouring nations like Kenya, Sudan, Eritrea and South Sudan, that also suffer from electricity shortages, to generate some revenue.

    What lies ahead?

    • Despite previous talks, the point of contention hasn’t changed: Egypt and Sudan are concerned about the filling and the operation of the dam.
    • Ethiopia continues to insist that the dam is required to meet the needs of its population and has said that downstream water supplies will not be adversely affected.
    • Cairo insists that the dam would cut its water supplies — concerning for a country that depends on the Nile for approximately 97% of its drinking water and irrigation supplies.
    • Sudan believes that the dam will reduce flooding, but is concerned about the path forward if the negotiations end at a stalemate.

  • Melting of the Arctic ice and its geopolitical footprints

    Melting of the ice in the Arctic region has as much impact on the geopolitics as it has on the environment. The article explains in detail the geopolitics involved.

    Melting of Arctic ice and its impact on climate

    • Arctic region is warming up twice as fast as the global average.
    • The ice cap is shrinking fast — since 1980, the volume of Arctic sea ice has declined by as much as 75 percent.
    • The loss of ice and the warming waters will affect sea levels, salinity levels, and current and precipitation patterns.
    • The Tundra is returning to the swamp, the permafrost is thawing, sudden storms are ravaging coastlines and wildfires are devastating interior Canada and Russia.
    • The rich biodiversity of the Arctic region is under serious threat.
    • These changes are making the survival of Arctic marine life, plants, and birds difficult while encouraging species from lower latitudes to move north.
    • The Arctic is also home to about 40 different indigenous groups, whose culture, economy, and way of life are in danger of being swept away.

    Opportunities in the melting of the Arctic

    • The Northern Sea Route (NSR) which connects the North Atlantic to the North Pacific through a short polar arc was once not open for navigation.
    • The melting ice has now made it a reality and a trickle of commercial cargo vessels have been going through every summer since the last decade.
    • The opening of the Arctic presents huge commercial and economic opportunities, particularly in shipping, energy, fisheries, and mineral resources.
    • Oil and natural gas deposits, estimated to be 22 percent of the world’s unexplored resources, mostly in the Arctic ocean, will be open to access along with mineral deposits.

    Challenges in exploiting opportunities

    • Navigation conditions are dangerous and restricted to the summer.
    • There is a lack of deep-water ports, a need for ice-breakers, a shortage of workers trained for polar conditions, and high insurance costs.
    • Mining and deep-sea drilling carry massive costs and environmental risks.
    • Unlike Antarctica, the Arctic is not a global common and there is no overarching treaty that governs it, only the UN Convention of Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
    • Large parts of it are under the sovereignty of the five littoral states — Russia, Canada, Norway, Denmark (Greenland) and the US — and exploitation of the new resources is well within their rights.

    Geopolitics of the Arctic

    • Russia, Canada, Norway, and Denmark have put in overlapping claims for extended continental shelves.
    • The US, not a party to UNCLOS, is unable to put in a formal claim but is under pressure to strengthen its Arctic presence.
    • For the present, Russia is the dominant power, with the longest Arctic coastline, half the Arctic population, and a full-fledged strategic policy.
    • Russia anticipates huge dividends from commercial traffic including through the use of its ports, pilots, and ice-breakers.
    • China, playing for economic advantage, has moved in fast, projecting the Polar Silk Road as an extension of the BRI, and has invested heavily in ports, energy, undersea infrastructure, and mining projects.

    What are the concerns for India

    • India’s extensive coastline makes it vulnerable to the impact of Arctic warming on ocean currents, weather patterns, fisheries, and most importantly, our monsoon.
    • Scientific research in Arctic developments, in which India has a good record, will contribute to our understanding of climatic changes in the Third Pole — the Himalayas.
    • The strategic implications of an active China in the Arctic and it’s growing economic and strategic relationship with Russia are self-evident and need close monitoring.

    Way forward

    • India has observer status in the Arctic Council, which is the predominant inter-governmental forum for cooperation on the environment and development (though not the security) aspects of the Arctic.
    • India should leverage its presence in Arctic Council for a strategic policy that encompassed economic, environmental, scientific, and political aspects.

    Consider the question “Melting of the Arctic opens the door for geopolitical game in the region and India cannot be immune to its implications. In the context of this, examine the developments in the region and how it impacts India’s interests?”

    Conclusion

    India must strive to protect its interest and strive for strategic policy for the region.

  • Dealing with the challenges India faces

    The article deals with the challeges India has to deal with in 2021 on the various front like foreign policy and economy.

    Major challenge of 2020

    • The COVID-19 pandemic, which embraced every segment of Indian society was the most insidious threat.
    • Since April, India has confronted an unprecedented situation on the border with China in eastern Ladakh.
    • Ever since, the border has remained live; as of now there is no end in sight.
    • Chinese behaviour at the border has led to a grave hiatus in India-China relations.
    • Internal problems such as Naxalite violence and Jammu and Kashmir endured during much of 2020.
    • The economy is in recession. India has slipped further down the scale in the Human Development Index.
    • Slippages have occurred in the Global Economic Freedom Index.

    How India should deal with the challenges ahead

    1) China challenge and foreign policy

    • In foreign policy India must not remain content or satisfied with the current stand-off with China in the Ladakh sector.
    • The conflict with China is enabling many of its neighbours to play China against India.
    • So, India should think of what better options are available to it to resolve that conflict
    • To tackle China, India must come up with a whole new paradigm of ideas on which further actions can be formulated.

    2) State of the economy

    • India must seek to enhance its competitive advantage vis-a-vis other nations.
    • India should focus on export-oriented economic strategy instead of looking inward to enlarge its economy.
    • India should enhance its export capacity.
    • India’s strength lies in its diversity, and its ability to utilise all available opportunities.
    • The other pressing challenge in 2021 would be job creation for the youth, who are India’s most abiding asset.
    • The government must take urgent steps to set right the disruptions in the labour market caused by the pandemic.
    • Creating new jobs in new industries should be a critical requirement.
    • Stimulating demand would ensure growth in job opportunities, and this should go hand in hand with this task.
    • The importance of such measures must not be underestimated.

    3) Restoring confidence in constitutional practices

    • The government to restore confidence in constitutional proprieties, practices and principles.
    • There is a crisis of confidence which is affecting the body politic.
    • The starting point would be effecting an improvement in Centre-State relations, particularly between Centre and States.
    • As digital technology advances, concerns that an unduly centralised Central government could use this to further reduce the independent authority of States will again need to be dispelled.
    • Effective cooperation between the Centre and the States must be restored as early as possible to instil confidence about India’s democratic future.

    Consider the question “What are the challenges ahead for Indian economy in the wake of economic disruption caused by the pandemic? Suggest the way to deal with these challenges.”

    Conclusion

    As 2020 comes to a close, it might be worthwhile to take a hard look at these issues to ensure that 2021 does not become another wasted year.

  • Reading the new US policy on Tibet

    The Tibet Policy and Support Act (TPSA) passed by the US Senate earlier this week, bookends a turbulent year in US-China relations.

    Must read:

    Tibetan Policy and Support Act (TPSA)

    Do you think that India’s support for the Tibetan cause is the root cause of all irritants in India-China relations?

    TPSA: A backgrounder

    • The TPSA is an amended version of the Tibet Policy Act of 2002, which came into existence during the Bush Administration.
    • The act once signed into law would make it the official policy of the US Government to oppose any effort by the govt. of the People’s Republic of China to select, educate, and venerate Tibetan Buddhist religious leaders in a manner inconsistent with Tibetan Buddhism.
    • The proposed legislation will empower the US Government to impose sanctions on China who might try to interfere in the process of selecting the next incarnation of the Dalai Lama.

    US and China, today

    • US-China relations have become much more difficult over the last two decades, particularly worsening in the Trump Administration.
    • The matters range from the pandemic to trade tariffs and its cross-world coalition-building against Chinese superpower ambitions.
    • Earlier in the year, President Donald Trump signed into law the Hong Kong Autonomy Act.

    Fuelled by TPSA

    • Adding much fuel to the issue, the TPSA introduces stronger provisions on Tibet, plus teeth in the form of a threat of sanctions, including travel bans on Chinese officials.

    The Dalai Lama

    • Among the most significant amendments is that the TSPA makes it US policy to oppose attempts by Beijing to install its own Dalai Lama in a manner inconsistent with Tibetan Buddhism.
    • The legislation makes reference to the Chinese government’s ‘Measures on the Management of the Reincarnation of Living Buddhas’ in 2007.
    • China had earlier insisted that the reincarnation of living Buddhas including the Dalai Lama must comply with Chinese laws and regulations.

    Other provisions of TPSA

    • The TPSA has introduced provisions aimed at protecting the environment of the Tibetan plateau, calling for greater international cooperation and greater involvement by Tibetans.
    • Alleging that China is diverting water resources from Tibet, the TPSA also calls for a regional framework on water security, or use existing frameworks… to facilitate cooperative agreements among all riparian nations.
    • While the 2002 Act said the US should establish a “branch office” in Lhasa, the TSPA ups the ante by changing that to a “consulate”.
    • It recognizes the Central Tibetan Administration, whose Prime Minister Lobsang Sangay takes credit for ensuring that the Senate took up the legislation for a vote.

    Chinese response to TPSA

    • China had earlier said the TPSA severely breached international law and basic norms governing international relations, interfered in China’s internal affairs, and sent a wrong message to ‘Tibet independence’ forces”.
    • After the passage of the Bill through the Senate, China said it “resolutely opposes” the “adoption of Bills containing such ill contents on China.

    India’s present stance on Tibet

    • If India is pleased with this latest US barb to China, it has not said so openly.
    • India has mostly refrained from playing the Tibet card against China, and like the US, has a one-China policy.
    • It was only this year, in the ongoing Ladakh standoff, that it used Special Forces made up almost entirely of Tibetan exiles to occupy strategic heights in Pangong Tso’s south bank.

  • Tibetan Policy and Support Act (TPSA)

    The US and China sparred over Tibet and the South China Sea over the passing of the Tibetan Policy and Support Act (TPSA).

    Do you think that India’s support for the Tibetan cause is the root cause of all irritants in India-China relations?

    About TPSA

    • The TPSA once signed into law would make it the official policy of the US Government to oppose any effort by the govt. of the People’s Republic of China to select, educate, and venerate Tibetan Buddhist religious leaders in a manner inconsistent with Tibetan Buddhism.
    • The proposed legislation will empower the US Government to impose sanctions on China who might try to interfere in the process of selecting the next incarnation of the Dalai Lama.

    Why such a law?

    • Tibetans were concerned over the possibility of the Chinese Government making an attempt to install someone loyal to it as the 15th Dalai Lama after the death of the incumbent.
    • The PRC could use him as a puppet to fizzle out the global campaign against its occupation of Tibet.
    • The incumbent and the 14th Dalai Lama have been living in exile in India ever since his 1959 escape from Tibet, which had been occupied by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in 1950-51.
    • He has been leading the movement for “genuine autonomy” for Tibet and the Tibetans.

    Significance of TPSA

    • The TPSA acknowledged the legitimacy of the Tibetan Parliament in Exile elected by the exiled community as well as the CTA.
    • It seeks to introduce key provisions aimed at protecting the environment and water resources on the Tibetan Plateau.
    • In an aggressive move, the PRC government has forced resettlement of the nomads from grasslands.
    • TPSA recognizes the importance of traditional Tibetan grassland stewardship in mitigating the negative effects of climate change in the region.
    • In addition, it calls for greater international cooperation to monitor the environment on the Tibetan plateau.

  • The many challenges for WTO

    The next Director-General of the organization will have to navigate through a slew of thorny issues in WTO.

    WTO to lead by a woman for the first time

    • For the first time in its 25-year history, the World Trade Organization (WTO) will be led by a woman.
    • The D-G’s job will require perseverance and outstanding negotiating skills for balancing the diverse and varied interests of the 164 member countries, and especially, for reconciling competing for multilateral and national visions, for the organization to work efficiently.
    • The next D-G will have to grapple with the global economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and work towards carrying out reforms of the multilateral trading system for reviving the world economy.
    • On all these issues, her non-partisan role will be watched carefully.

    Practice Question: In the wake of the global economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, discuss the challenges ahead of WTO.

    Tussle between developed and developing countries

    • The current impasse in the WTO negotiations has led member countries to believe in the necessity of carrying out urgent reforms, which is likely to throw up some difficult choices for developing countries like India.
    • At the core of the divide within the WTO is the Doha Development Agenda, which the developed countries sought to move in favour of a new agenda that includes, amongst others, e-commerce, investment facilitation, MSMEs and gender.
    • Salvaging the ‘development’-centric agenda is critical for a large number of developing countries as they essentially see trade as a catalyst of development.
    • Restoring the WTO dispute settlement mechanism, especially the revival of its Appellate body, is also crucial for the organization’s efficient functioning.

    Definition of ‘Developing Country’ – a contentious issue

    • The push for a change in the definition of “developing country” under the principle of special and differential treatment (S&DT), aimed at upgrading certain developing countries, will deeply affect the status of emerging economies such as India, China, South Africa, Turkey, Egypt, etc.
    • The assumption that some countries have benefited immensely from the WTO rules since its formation in 1995 is flawed, at least in the case of India. And even if there may be no consensus of views on measuring ‘development’, India will remain a developing country no matter which parameter is used.
    • The way out for India could be to negotiate a longer phase-out period or an acceptable formula based on development indices, etc.

    Fisheries subsidies negotiations

    • Among the current negotiations at the WTO, the fisheries subsidies negotiations command the highest attention.
    • India can lead the way in finding a landing zone by urging others to settle for the lowest common denominator while seeking permanent protection for traditional and artisanal farmers who are at the subsistence level of survival.
    • The danger lies in seeking larger carve-outs, which could result in developed countries ploughing precious fisheries resources in international waters.

    Lessons from COVID-19

    • The COVID-19 crisis has revealed the urgent and enduring need for international cooperation and collaboration, as no country can fight the pandemic alone.
    • The D-G can help mitigate the effects of the pandemic by giving clear directions on ensuring that supply chains remain free and open, recommending a standard harmonized system with classification for vaccines, and by the removal of import/export restrictions.
    • Voluntary sharing and pooling of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) is required for any global effort to tackle the pandemic, but with the fear of vaccine nationalism looming large, several countries are seeking to secure the future supply of leading COVID-19 vaccines.
    • India’sreiteration that its vaccine production and delivery capacity will help the whole of humanity will require the D-G to play a responsible role in removing barriers to intellectual property and securing a legal framework within the WTO TRIPS Agreement.
    • This can be done by lending salience to the effective interpretation of Articles 8 and 31 of the Agreement, that allow compulsory licensing and agreement of a patent without the authorization of its owner under certain conditions.

    Way Forward

    • The consensus-based decision-making in the WTO, which makes dissension by even one member stop the process in its track, gives developing countries some heft and influence at par with developed countries.
    • The D-G would need to tread cautiously on this front, as some will allude to the successful implementation of the Trade Facilitation Agreement in 2017 that allowed member countries to make commitments in a phased manner in accordance with their domestic preparedness.
    • Most imminently, the next D-G will need to build trust among its members that the WTO needs greater engagement by all countries, to stitch fair rules in the larger interest of all nations and thwart unfair trade practices of a few.

  • Iran’s calculated risk

    The article analyses Iran’s response to the recent killing of its top nuclear scientist. Instead of responding to the provocation, Iran has decided to wait and watch the new U.S. administrations response.

    Background of nuclear deal with Iran

    • In 2015, the P5+1 nations-China, France, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S., plus Germany- reached an agreement with Iran to curb the country’s nuclear programme.
    • It was expected that the agreement would lead to a new beginning in West Asia, however, this did not happen.
    • Washington saw Iran’s nuclear programme, which was at an advanced stage in 2015, as a national security problem and tackled it via diplomacy.
    • However, for Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran’s nuclear programme was not the problem but was part of the larger geopolitical challenges Iran posed.
    • The problem was Iran itself: Tehran’s influence across West Asia, its backing for non-state militias, and its ambition to emerge as a dominant pillar in the region.
    • The Donald Trump administration took an entirely different line towards Iran.
    • It pulled the U.S. out of the nuclear deal, despite United Nations certification that Iran was compliant with its terms, and reimposed sanctions on Tehran.

    Israels

    • Iran wants to set back Iran’s nuclear programme by taking out a prominent scientist and scuttle the possible revival of the nuclear deal.
    • If Iran does not retaliate, it shows that Iran’s deterrence is getting weaker, which could trigger more such attacks from its rivals.
    • If it retaliates, it could escalate the conflict, giving the outgoing Trump administration and Isarael reasons to launch heavier strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, closing off the diplomatic path.

    Iran’s response and challenges in it

    • Instead of walking into the trap of provocation, Iran’s Parliament passed a Bill that obliges the government to enrich uranium to a higher level, from less than 5% now to 20%.
    • This is a technical step away from the weapons-grade level of 90%.
    • And stop access for UN inspectors to the country’s top nuclear facilities in two months if sanctions relief is not given.
    • Within two months, Mr. Biden will be in the White House.

    Conclusion

    Iran is taking a calculated risk by enhancing its nuclear programme, which can be reversed if talks are revived. But it is leaving the Israel problem unaddressed, for now. This leaves the region vulnerable to a prolonged crisis.

  • Geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East and consequences for Indian subcontinent

    Three broad trends emerging from the Middle East and its implication for the region have been discussed here.

    Growing vulnerability of Iran and implications for subcontinent

    • The brazen murder of a top Iranian nuclear scientist highlights the Islamic Republic of Iran’s growing strategic vulnerabilities.
    • This geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East has major consequences for the subcontinent.
    • Whether they want to or not, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh must deal with three broad trends that define the new Middle East.

    3 Trends in the Middle East

    1) Iran’s growing isolation

    •  The Trump administration and the Republicans, Israel and the Gulf Arabs have a shared interest in preventing the next US President from renewing nuclear diplomacy with Iran and ending Tehran’s isolation.
    • The assassination of Fakhrizadeh is about achieving that political objective.
    • If Iran retaliates vigorously, it will invite an all-out confrontation with Israel and the US.
    • Holding back will expose Iran’s weakness and sharpen internal divisions between pragmatists who want to engage the US and the hardliners.
    • The frequent attacks on high-profile Iranian targets indicate hostile penetration of its society such that domestic opponents of the regime are now willing to collaborate with foreign security agencies, including Israel’s Mossad.
    •  Iran’s internal political weakness is compounded by the massive economic pain imposed by the Trump administration through sanctions.
    • Iran has much goodwill in South Asia, but India and its neighbours have no desire to get sucked into Tehran’s conflicts with the Arabs or the US.

    2)  Transformation of Arab relations with Israel

    • The fear of Iran has been driving Gulf Arabs to embrace Israel.
    • In the last few months, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have normalised ties with Israel.
    • There is speculation of an impending normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
    • Pakistan’s Prime Minister has talked of pressure, apparently from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, on recognising Israel.
    • If Pakistan recognises Israel, Bangladesh would not want to be left behind.
    • Economic and technological collaboration with Israel will give Bangladesh’s economy and foreign policy a big boost.
    • For Israel, having Bangladesh and Pakistan, two of the world’s largest Islamic nations, recognise it would be a great ideological and political bonus
    • An India that proclaims the virtues of engaging all sides in the Middle East can’t grudge the same privilege for Israel in South Asia.

    3) Rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Turkey

    • While Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE want to return the Middle East towards political and religious moderation, the once secular Turkey has become the new champion of political Islam.
    • Turkey’s contestation with Saudi Arabia is already having an impact on India and Pakistan.
    • Turkey is now hostile to India and has joined Pakistan in taking up the Kashmir question at international forums.
    • For Pakistan, this seemed a useful counter to the Gulf Arabs, who were ramping up strategic ties with India.
    • However, UAE and Saudi Arabia have the option to put massive costs on the Pakistani economy that can’t be plugged by Turkey or Malaysia.

    Conclusion

    Although India has made some important adjustments to its engagement with the Middle East in recent years, Delhi can’t take its eyes off the rapid changes in the region.