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GS Paper: Indian Economy

  • India’s trade with China falls at five-year low

    India’s trade with China last year fell to the lowest since 2017, with the trade imbalance declining to a five-year low on the back of a slump in India’s imports from China.

    Try this PYQ:

    Q.Among the following, which one is the largest exporter of rice in the world in the last five years? (CSP 2019)

    (a) China

    (b) India

    (c) Myanmar

    (d) Vietnam

    India-China Trade

    • Two-way trade in 2020 reached $87.6 billion, down by 5.6%, according to new figures from China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC).
    • India’s imports from China accounted for $66.7 billion, declining by 10.8% year-on-year and the lowest figure since 2016.
    • It, however, rose to the highest figure on record, for the first time crossing the $20 billion-mark and growing 16% last year to $20.86 billion.

    What constitutes India’s import from China?

    • While there was no immediate break-up of the data in 2020, India’s biggest import in 2019 was electrical machinery and equipment, worth $20.17 billion.
    • Other major imports in 2019 were organic chemicals ($8.39 billion) and fertilizers ($1.67 billion), while India’s top exports were iron ore, organic chemicals, cotton and unfinished diamonds.

    India’s exports to China

    • The past 12 months saw a surge in demand for iron ore in China with a slew of new infrastructure projects aimed at reviving growth after the COVID-19 slump.
    • China’s total iron ore imports were up 9.5 per cent in 2020.

    A friction-induced low

    • The trade deficit, a source of friction between India and China, declined to a five year-low of $45.8 billion, the lowest since 2015.
    • Whether 2020 is an exception or marks a turn away from the recent pattern of India’s trade with China remains to be seen.
    • While India’s imports from China declined, so did India’s imports overall with a slump in domestic demand last year.
    • There is, as yet, no evidence to suggest India has replaced its import dependence on China by either sourcing those goods elsewhere or manufacturing them at home.

  • Recapitalization of state-owned banks: Privatization should do it

    The article suggest the approach to deal with the problems banking in India faces.

    Banking sector under stress

    • Along with the other sectors, pandemic dealt a severe blow to the banking sector.
    • Stress tests reported in the Financial Stability Report (FSR) indicate that the low ratio of capital to risk-adjusted-assets (CRAR) is likely to decline further.
    • To revive the economy and resume sustained high growth, bold structural reforms will have to be combined with strong fiscal and monetary measures.

    Declining credit growth: monetary challenge

    • India’s credit-to-gross domestic product ratio is around 51%.
    • 51% not too low compared to other countries at comparable levels of per capita income.
    • However, the worry is that credit growth is declining rapidly.
    • It is mainly attributable to rising risk aversion among lenders, reflecting the high and rising level of NPAs.
    • Risk aversion spiked during the economic contraction.

    Rising NPA of Public Sector Banks

    • The FSR stress tests now indicate that the gross NPA ratio is likely to go up to as much as 13.5% by September 2021 in the report’s baseline case and 14.8% in the ‘severe stress’ case.
    • Within the banking sector, conditions are much worse in public sector banks (PSBs) compared to private banks (PBs) or foreign banks (FBs).
    • The gross NPA figure is forecast to rise to 16.2% for PSBs as compared to 7.9% and 5.4% for PBs and FBs in the baseline case.
    • Clearly, high NPAs are primarily a problem for PSBs, which still account for 60% of India’s total bank credit.

    Expanding banking sector: bypass PSBs and give a big push to private banking

    • The recent report on Ownership and Corporate Structure for Indian Private Sector Banks submitted by an RBI internal working group (IWG) espouses this approach.
    • The IWG’s main  recommendation is to enable large corporations and industrial houses to acquire banking licences.
    • The proposal has been strongly opposed by former governors and deputy governors of RBI, several former chief economic advisers, a former finance secretary, and, most significantly, all save one of the many experts the IWG consulted.

    Four issues with the push to private banking

    • 1) With an industry CRAR of only 12%, the proposed raising of the promoter share cap to 26% could potentially leverage the promoter’s investment by 32 times.
    • The very high risk appetite generated by such leveraging would subject depositors to a high level of systemic risk, given the limited deposit insurance provided in India.
    • 2) Excessive risk appetite would lead to imprudent lending, especially connected lending to group companies. Conglomerates always find ways around regulatory restrictions against such connected lending.
    • 3) Three, a conglomerate’s bank would have access to insider information on borrower companies that compete with its group companies.
    • 4) Conglomerate banks would lead to massive concentration of economic power and political influence against not just competing companies, but even the regulator.

    Way forward

    • A safer and cleaner option would be to help the country’s banking sector grow through simultaneous privatization and recapitalization of PSBs.
    • However, these options do not change the ownership and governance structure of PSBs, which is what primarily is to blame for their poor performance.
    • A better option is for PSBs to recapitalize themselves by raising fresh equity.
    • It would be more prudent financially and also more acceptable politically to test this approach with one or two small PSBs.

    Conclusion

    Government should try to adopt the approach which reduces the risks associated with giving push to private players in the banking sector while making the PSBs more efficient.

    Back2Basics: CRAR-Capital to risk-adjusted-assets

    •  The CRAR is the capital needed for a bank measured in terms of the assets (mostly loans) disbursed by the banks.
    • Higher the assets, higher should be the capital by the bank.
    • A notable feature of CRAR is that it measures capital adequacy in terms of the riskiness of the assets or loans given.

  • Digital Lending

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has constituted a working group on digital lending to study all aspects of digital lending activities in the regulated financial sector as well as by unregulated players.

    NPAs are rising in India. And one may find some irritating ads and texts on our smartphones, which desperately wants to disburse easy loans (that too in a limited offer period)!

    Digital Lending

    • Digital lending is the process of offering loans that are applied for, disbursed, and managed through digital channels, in which lenders use digitized data to inform credit decisions and build customer engagement.
    • It consists of lending through web platforms or mobile apps, by taking advantage of technology for authentication and credit assessment.

    Why in news?

    • The move comes in the backdrop of the three borrowers in Telangana committing suicide over alleged harassment by personnel of such digital lenders.
    • There were many more complaining of being subjected to coercive methods after defaulting on repayments.

    Why regulate Digital Lending?

    • Digital lending has the potential to make access to financial products and services more fair, efficient and inclusive.
    • From a peripheral supporting role a few years ago, FinTech-led innovation is now at the core of the design, pricing and delivery of financial products and services.
    • While penetration of digital methods in the financial sector is a welcome development, the benefits and certain downside risks are often interwoven.
    • A balanced approach needs to be followed so that the regulatory framework supports innovation while ensuring data security, privacy, confidentiality and consumer protection.

    Risks associated

    • A growing number of unauthorized digital lending platforms and mobile applications are threats to consumers.
    • Such lenders charge excessive rates of interest and additional hidden charges.
    • They adopt unacceptable and high-handed recovery methods and in turn misuse agreements to access data on mobile phones of borrowers.

    What will the working group do?

    • The RBI working group will evaluate digital lending activities and assess the penetration and standards of outsourced digital lending activities in RBI regulated entities.
    • They would thus identify the risks posed by unregulated digital lending to financial stability, regulated entities and consumers; and suggest regulatory changes to promote orderly growth of digital lending.
    • It will also recommend measures for expansion of specific regulatory or statutory perimeter and suggest the role of various regulatory and government agencies.
    • It will also recommend a robust fair practices code for digital lending players.

  • Mutual Funds Risk-o-Meter

    The capital markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has made it mandatory for mutual funds to assign a risk level to schemes, based on certain parameters.

    Try this PYQ:

    Q.Which of the following is issued by registered foreign portfolio investors to overseas investors who want to be part of the Indian stock market without registering themselves directly?

    (a) Certificate of Deposit

    (b) Commercial Paper

    (c) Promissory Note

    (d) Participatory Note

    What are Mutual Funds?

    • A Mutual Fund is a trust that collects money from a number of investors who share a common investment objective.
    • Then, it invests the money in equities, bonds, money market instruments and/or other securities.
    • Each investor owns units, which represent a portion of the holdings of the fund.
    • The income/gains generated from this collective investment are distributed proportionately amongst the investors after deducting certain expenses, by calculating a scheme’s “Net Asset Value or NAV.
    • It is one of the most viable investment options for the common man as it offers an opportunity to invest in a diversified, professionally managed basket of securities at a relatively low cost.
    • All funds carry some level of risk. With mutual funds, one may lose some or all of the money invested because the securities held by a fund can go down in value.

    What is the risk-o-meter?

    • All mutual funds shall beginning January 1, assign a risk level to their schemes at the time of launch, based on the scheme’s characteristics.
    • SEBI’s decision on the “risk-o-meter”, characterizes the risk level of the schemes on a six-stage scale from “Low” to “Very High”.
    • The risk-o-meter must be evaluated on a monthly basis.

    A compulsory mandate

    • Fund houses are required to disclose the risk-o-meter risk level along with the portfolio disclosure for all their schemes on their own websites as well as the website of the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) within 10 days of the close of each month.
    • Any change in the risk-o-meter reading with regard to a scheme shall be communicated to the unit-holders of that scheme.

    How will the level of risk be assigned?

    • Which one of the six risk levels — low, low to moderate, moderate, moderately high, high, and very high — would apply, would depend upon the risk value (less than 1 for low risk to more than 5 for very high risk) calculated for the scheme.
    • So if the risk value of a scheme is less than 1, its risk level would be low, and if it is more than 5, the risk will be very high on the risk-o-meter.

  • India’s New Deal moment

    The article explains the opportunity presented by the budget to steer the economy out of the uncertain territory.

    3 characteristics of India’s economic recovery

    • First, India has broken the link between virus proliferation and mobility earlier and more successfully than many countries.
    • Second, the employment rate gradually improved till September but has weakened since then, even as the economy has progressively opened up.
    • CMIE’s labour market survey still reveals 18 million fewer employed (about 5 per cent of the total employed) compared to pre-pandemic levels.
    • A third phenomenon is large firms have endured the crisis better and are gaining market share at the expense of smaller firms.
    • To the extent there is a migration of activity from the informal/SME firms to larger firms, tax collections and Sensex/Nifty earnings should get a boost, even holding the economic pie constant.
    • Greater scale and formalisation undoubtedly augur well for medium-term productivity but could increase near-term labour market frictions and boost pricing power.

    Increased prospects of K-shaped recovery

    • Above 3 factors increases prospects of a K-shaped recovery from COVID, a phenomenon playing out globally.
    • Households at the top of the pyramid are likely to have seen their incomes largely protected, and savings rates increased.
    • Meanwhile, households at the bottom are likely to have witnessed permanent hits to jobs and incomes.

    3 Implications of K-shaped recovery

    • 1) What we are currently witnessing is pent-up demand from the upper-income households.
    • However, households at the bottom have experienced a permanent loss of income in the forms of jobs and wage cuts, this will be a recurring drag on demand, if the labour market does not heal faster.
    • 2) To the extent that COVID has triggered an effective income transfer from the poor to the rich, this will be demand-impeding in the steady state.
    • This is explianed by the fact that marginal propensity to consume at the bottom is higher than that at the top, just as the marginal propensity to import at the top is higher than at the bottom.
    • 3) If COVID-19 reduces competition or increases the inequality of incomes and opportunities, it could impinge on trend growth in developing economies by hurting productivity and tightening political economy constraints.

    Factors that need to be considered to decide the policy response

    • Policy need to look beyond the next few quarters and anticipate the state of the macro economy post this expression of pent-up demand.
    • The key factor is wheather private sector starts re-investing and re-hiring.
    • With manufacturing utilisation rates below 70 per cent pre-COVID, an investment revival, in turn, will depend crucially on the
    • Exports should benefit from strengthening global growth as the world gets progressively vaccinated and more US fiscal stimulus.

    Upcoming budget: India’s New Deal moment

    • It’s against this backdrop that the upcoming budget presents India with its New Deal moment.
    • Given the prevailing demand uncertainties, the budget represents an opportune moment for the Centre, in conjunction with the states, to embark on a large physical and social infrastructure push.
    • This will simultaneously boost near-term aggregate demand, crowd in private investment, create jobs to soak up the unemployed, and improve the economy’s external competitiveness.
    • Job creation, health and education, in turn, will be a start to help mitigate COVID-induced inequalities.

    How to finance the investment?

    • Gradual near-term consolidation coupled with a credible medium-term fiscal plan will be key to anchoring the bond market and underscoring an adherence to macro stability.
    • How then can public investment increase meaningfully if the headline deficit (projected above 11 per cent of GDP) must come down?
    • Public investment could be increased only if the public investment push is financed by aggressive asset sales-strategic sales, disinvestment, land and infrastructure monetisation.
    • In this manner, expenditure to GDP can actually rise next year — generating an expansionary fiscal impulse to the economy — while automatic stabilisers are used to reduce the headline fiscal deficit.

    Conclusion

    India’s faster-than-expected rebound is very encouraging. But given labour market pressures and prospects of a K-shaped recovery around the world, the economy will need to be carefully nurtured and stoked. The budget presents a crucial opportunity to make a big down payment towards this end.

  • Challenges ahead for the RBI

    With the Indian economy showing green shoots, RBI has to face some fundamental challenges while withdrawing the expansionary measures. 

    Expansionary policy as a response to pandemic

    • To manage the financial pressures unleashed by COVID-19, the RBI unleashed several measures.
    • It reduced policy interest rates aggressively.
    • It released an unprecedented amount of liquidity in the market.
    • It instituted a slew of measures for targeted assistance to, especially distressed sectors.

    Time to roll back the expansionary monetary policy

    • As the Indian economy is showing the signs of recovery, the RBI must be planning for a non-disruptive exit out of the easy money regime.
    • Reversing a crisis-driven expansionary policy has to be a deliberative process, with the timing and sequencing carefully planned.
    • A big lesson of the global financial crisis is that any missteps on the exit path by way of commission, omission, or importantly communication, can be costly in macroeconomic terms.

    Challenges RBI will face on the way out of expansionary monetary policy

    1) Restraining inflation while supporting the recovery

    • Inflation remained above the RBI’s target band for the past several months.
    • According to the RBI’s own estimates, inflation is expected to remain above the band for the next several months.
    • Yet, the MPC, in its recent review, decided against any rate action out of concerns for growth and financial stability.
    • The MPC expects inflation to soften on its own in the weeks ahead.
    • That outcome is not inevitable.
    • Inflation could be pressured upwards by several factors even though there could be some apparent softening purely because of base effects.
    • There is the risk that persistent high inflation expectations would result in food inflation getting more generalised.
    • Core inflation could firm up because of rising input prices.
    • ‘Excessive margins’, among the factors cited by the MPC as one of the causes of high inflation, may not disappear.
    • Equally, there are concerns that the recovery, for all the positive signals, is still fragile. 
    • And there is heightened concern about an aggravated unemployment problem caused by big firms retrenching labour to cut costs.

    2) Impact on savings

    • RBI should also be concerned about the plight of savers who are being shortchanged by low-interest rates at a time of high inflation.
    • Low-interest rates, its impact on inflation and economic recovery taken together make a complex cocktail of dilemmas for the RBI as it seeks to normalise the policy rates.

    3) Withdraw excess liquidity at right time and to avoid ‘taper tantrum’

    • Another related challenge will be to withdraw the ‘excess’ liquidity in good time.
    • Banks are routinely depositing trillions of rupees with the RBI every day, evidencing that all the money that the central bank injected into the system is not doing much good anymore.
    • Every financial crisis can be traced back to mispricing of risk.
    • Mispricing of risk results when there is too much liquidity sloshing around the system for too long.
    • It will drive investors into dodgy ventures and threaten financial stability.
    • As the RBI seeks to guard financial stability by normalising liquidity, it will have to contend with possible market tantrums.
    • The lesson from the taper tantrums in the U.S. is that the RBI will have to manage its communication as carefully as it does the liquidity withdrawal.

    4) Stability of the rupee

    • Next challenge for the RBI will be to restrain the rupee from appreciating out of line with fundamentals.
    • Here, the RBI is confronted with a classic case of ‘the impossible trinity’.
    • The impossible trinity deals with allowing free capital flows while simultaneously maintaining a stable exchange rate and restraining inflation.
    • The current account surplus this year together with massive capital flows has meant an excess of dollars in the system putting upward pressure on already overvalued rupee.
    • The RBI has absorbed nearly $90 billion this fiscal year to prevent exchange rate appreciation and to maintain the competitiveness of the rupee.
    • The RBI’s ability to continue to intervene in the forex market will be constrained by its anxiety about how the resultant liquidity might aggravate inflation and the risk to financial stability.

    Consider the question “What are the challenges ahead for the RBI while winding down the expansionary monetary policy measures that were announced to deal with the economic disruption of caused due to pandemic and subsequent lockdown.

    Conclusion

    It is better to be rough right, as Keynes said, than be precisely wrong. That should be the guiding principle for RBI as it navigates its way out of the crisis driven easy money policy.

    Back2Basics: What is taper tantrum?

    • Taper tantrum refers to the 2013 collective reactionary panic that triggered a spike in U.S. Treasury yields, after investors learned that the Federal Reserve was slowly putting the breaks on its quantitative easing (QE) program.
    • The Fed announced that it would be reducing the pace of its purchases of Treasury bonds, to reduce the amount of money it was feeding into the economy.
    • The ensuing rise in bond yields in reaction to the announcement was referred to as a taper tantrum in financial media.

  • Payments Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF) Scheme

    The RBI has announced operational guidelines to create digital payments acceptance infrastructure across Tier III to Tier VI regions in India.

    Possible prelims question:

    Q. Which of the following is the major aim of Payments Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF) recently created by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)?

    a) Promotion of UPI payments

    b) Deploying Points of Sale (PoS) infrastructure

    c) Creation of digital wallets

    d) All of the above

    PIDF Scheme

    • The scheme was first announced in June last year to encourage fintech companies and banks to deploy point of sale (PoS) infrastructure across the country to improve the penetration of card-based and other digital payments.
    • The primary beneficiaries will be merchants providing essential services, such as transport and hospitality, government payments, fuel pumps, healthcare facilities, and groceries.
    • Amid the rapid rise in the volume of payments through the UPI network, the RBI is taking steps to further widen the use of digital payments in the country.
    • The fund will be operational for three years from January 1, 2021, and would help subsidise banks and non-banks for the deployment of payments, subject to them achieving specific targets.

    Why need PIDF?

    • Over the years, the payments ecosystem in the country has evolved with a wide range of options such as bank accounts, mobile phones, cards, etc.
    • To provide further fillip to the digitization of payment systems, it is necessary to give impetus to acceptance infrastructure across the country, more so in under-served areas.

  • What is a K-shaped Economic Recovery?

    The prospects of a K-shaped economic recovery from COVID are increasing both in India and across the world.

    What is K-Shaped Recovery?

    • A K-shaped recovery occurs when, following a recession, different parts of the economy recover at different rates, times, or magnitudes.
    • This is in contrast to an even, uniform recovery across sectors, industries, or groups of people.
    • A K-shaped recovery leads to changes in the structure of the economy or the broader society as economic outcomes and relations are fundamentally changed before and after the recession.
    • This type of recovery is called K-shaped because the path of different parts of the economy when charted together may diverge, resembling the two arms of the Roman letter “K.”

    Try these PYQs:

     

    Q.Economic growth in country X will necessarily have to occur if

    (a) There is technical progress in the world economy

    (b) There is population growth in X

    (c) There is capital formation in X

    (d) The volume of trade grows in the world economy

     

    Q. Economic growth is usually coupled with

    (a) Deflation

    (b) Inflation

    (c) Stagflation

    (d) Hyperinflation

    3 characteristics of India’s economic recovery

    • First, India has broken the link between virus proliferation and mobility earlier and more successfully than many countries.
    • Second, the employment rate gradually improved till September but has weakened since then, even as the economy has progressively opened up.
    • CMIE’s labour market survey still reveals 18 million fewer employed (about 5 per cent of the total employed) compared to pre-pandemic levels.
    • A third phenomenon is large firms have endured the crisis better and are gaining market share at the expense of smaller firms.
    • To the extent there is a migration of activity from the informal/SME firms to larger firms, tax collections and Sensex/Nifty earnings should get a boost, even holding the economic pie constant.
    • Greater scale and formalisation undoubtedly augur well for medium-term productivity but could increase near-term labour market frictions and boost pricing power.

    Increased prospects of K-shaped recovery

    • Above 3 factors increases prospects of a K-shaped recovery from COVID, a phenomenon playing out globally.
    • Households at the top of the pyramid are likely to have seen their incomes largely protected, and savings rates increased.
    • Meanwhile, households at the bottom are likely to have witnessed permanent hits to jobs and incomes.

    3 Implications of K-shaped recovery

    • 1) What we are currently witnessing is pent-up demand from the upper-income households.
    • However, households at the bottom have experienced a permanent loss of income in the forms of jobs and wage cuts, this will be a recurring drag on demand, if the labour market does not heal faster.
    • 2) To the extent that COVID has triggered an effective income transfer from the poor to the rich, this will be demand-impeding in the steady state.
    • This is explained by the fact that marginal propensity to consume at the bottom is higher than that at the top, just as the marginal propensity to import at the top is higher than at the bottom.
    • 3) If COVID-19 reduces competition or increases the inequality of incomes and opportunities, it could impinge on trend growth in developing economies by hurting productivity and tightening political economy constraints.

    Factors that need to be considered to decide the policy response

    • Policy need to look beyond the next few quarters and anticipate the state of the macro economy post this expression of pent-up demand.
    • The key factor is whether private sector starts re-investing and re-hiring.
    • With manufacturing utilisation rates below 70 per cent pre-COVID, an investment revival, in turn, will depend crucially on the demand dynamics
    • Exports should benefit from strengthening global growth as the world gets progressively vaccinated and more US fiscal stimulus.

    Upcoming budget: India’s New Deal moment

    • It’s against this backdrop that the upcoming budget presents India with its New Deal moment.
    • Given the prevailing demand uncertainties, the budget represents an opportune moment for the Centre, in conjunction with the states, to embark on a large physical and social infrastructure push.
    • This will simultaneously boost near-term aggregate demand, crowd in private investment, create jobs to soak up the unemployed, and improve the economy’s external competitiveness.
    • Job creation, health and education, in turn, will be a start to help mitigate COVID-induced inequalities.

    How to finance the investment?

    • Gradual near-term consolidation coupled with a credible medium-term fiscal plan will be key to anchoring the bond market and underscoring an adherence to macro stability.
    • How then can public investment increase meaningfully if the headline deficit (projected above 11 per cent of GDP) must come down?
    • Public investment could be increased only if the public investment push is financed by aggressive asset sales-strategic sales, disinvestment, land and infrastructure monetisation.
    • In this manner, expenditure to GDP can actually rise next year — generating an expansionary fiscal impulse to the economy — while automatic stabilisers are used to reduce the headline fiscal deficit.

    Conclusion

    India’s faster-than-expected rebound is very encouraging. But given labour market pressures and prospects of a K-shaped recovery around the world, the economy will need to be carefully nurtured and stoked. The budget presents a crucial opportunity to make a big down payment towards this end.

     

  • First Advance Estimates of GDP for 2021

    The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released the First Advance Estimates (FAE) for the current financial year.

    What do estimates show?

    • According to MoSPI, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) — the total value of all final goods and services produced within the country in one financial year — will contract by 7.7 per cent in 2020-21.
    • The first advance estimates of GDP, obtained by extrapolation of seven months’ data, are released early to help officers in the Finance Ministry and other departments in framing the broad contours of Union Budget 2021-22.

    What are the First Advance Estimates of GDP?

    • For any financial year, the MoSPI provides regular estimates of GDP. The first such instance is through the FAE.
    • The FAE for any particular financial year is typically presented on January 7th.
    • Their significance lies in the fact that they are the GDP estimates that the Union Finance Ministry uses to decide the next financial year’s budget allocations.
    • The FAE will be quickly updated as more information becomes available.
    • On February 26th, MoSPI will come out with the Second Advance Estimates of GDP for the current year.

    How is the FAE arrived at before the end of the concerned financial year?

    • The FAE are derived by extrapolating the available data. (Hope you remember Newtons’ interpolation and extrapolation from XII std.)
    • According to the MoSPI, the approach for compiling the Advance Estimates is based on Benchmark-Indicator method.
    • The sector-wise estimates are obtained by extrapolating indicators such as-
    1. Index of Industrial Production (IIP) of the first 7 months of the financial year
    2. Financial performance of listed companies in the private corporate sector available up to quarter ending September 2020
    3. The 1st Advance Estimates of crop production,
    4. The accounts of central & state governments,
    5. Information on indicators like deposits & credits, passenger and freight earnings of Railways, passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation, cargo handled at major seaports, sales of commercial vehicles, etc., available for first 8 months of the financial year.

    How is the data extrapolated?

    • In the past, extrapolation for indicators such as the IIP was done by dividing the cumulative value for the first 7 months of the current financial year by average of the ratio of the cumulative value of the first 7 months to the annual value of past years.
    • So if the annual value of a variable was twice that of the value in the first 7 months in the previous years then for the current year as well the annual value is assumed to be double that of the first 7 months.
    • However, this year, because of the pandemic there were wide fluctuations in the monthly data. Moreover, there was a significant drop, especially in the first quarter, on many counts.
    • That is why the usual projection techniques would not have yielded robust results.
    • As such, MoSPI has tweaked the ratios for most variables.

    What are the key takeaways from the First Advance Estimates for 2020-21?

    There are 7 key takeaways.

    #1 GDP Growth Rate:

    • In the context of recent history, the 7.7 per cent contraction in GDP is a sharp one considering that India has registered an average annual GDP growth rate of 6.8 per cent since the start of economic liberalisation in 1992-93.

    #2 Absolute level of real GDP:

    • At Rs 134.4 lakh crore, India’s real GDP — that is, GDP without the influence of inflation — in 2020-21 will be lower than the 2018-19 level.
    • In other words, from the start of the next financial year, India would first have to raise its GDP back to the level it was at in 2019-20 (Rs 143.7 lakh crore).

    #3 Per Capita GDP:

    • While the GDP provides an all-India aggregate, per capita GDP is a better variable if one wants to understand how an average India has been impacted.
    • India’s per capita GDP will fall to Rs 99, 155 in 2020-21.
    • In fact, while the overall real GDP will fall by 7.7 per cent, per capita real GDP will fall by 8.7 per cent.

    #4 Absolute level of real Gross Value Added (or GVA):

    • The GVA provides a picture of the economy from the supply side.
    • It maps the value-added by different sectors of the economy such as agriculture, industry and services. In other words, GVA provides a proxy for the income earned by people involved in the various sectors.
    • This fiscal, at Rs 123.4 lakh crore, India’s real GVA level, too, will fall below the 2018-19 level.

    #5 Absolute level of Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE):

    • India’s overall GDP can be divided into four main sections. The biggest demand for goods and services comes from private individuals trying to satisfy their consumption needs.
    • Typically this would include all the things — be it toothpaste or a car — that you and your family members buy in their private individual capacity.
    • This demand is called PFCE and it constitutes over 56 per cent of the total GDP.

    #6 Per capita PFCE:

    • Just like per capita GDP, the per capita PFCE is also a relevant metric as it shows how much does an average Indian spend in his/her private capacity.
    • Typically, with rising incomes standards, such consumption levels also rise.
    • However, at Rs 55,609, per capita, PFCE will fall below the 2017-18 level.

    #7 Absolute level of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF):

    • The second biggest component of GDP is called GFCF and it measures all the expenditures on goods and services that businesses and firms make as they invest in their productive capacity.
    • So if a firm buys computers and software to increase the overall productivity then it will be counted under GFCF.
    • This type of demand accounts for close to 28 per cent of India’s GDP. Taken together, private demand and business demand account for almost 85 per cent of all GDP.

  • Payment banks

    The article highlights the important role Payment Banks could play in furthering the financial inclusion in India.

    Financial inclusion and challenges

    • Interventions, especially the JAM trinity—Jan Dhan accounts, Aadhaar and Mobile phones—have accelerated digital and financial inclusion in India.
    • Four of every five Indian adults have a registered bank account.
    • Financial inclusion is not only about opening accounts, it encompasses access to credit, insurance and micro-investment products in a simple and safe way.
    • This remains a challenge for ‘weaker sections and low-income groups’.
    • For instance, only 16% of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) have access to formal credit amid an estimated debt demand of ₹69.3 trillion.

    High-technology, low-cost banking to accelerate financial inclusion

    • In 2014, Nachiket Mor committee recommended setting up “high technology—low cost” banking models to accelerate financial inclusion to the last mile.
    • Subsequently, the Reserve Bank of India licensed ‘vertically differentiated banking systems’, such as Payments Bank (PBs) and Small Finance Banks (SFBs).
    • SFBs have grown profitably thanks to the yield spread between deposits and lending.
    • Most of them started off as micro finance institutions with a ready asset base, and after converting into SFBs, they have got a better liability franchise but continue to operate in niche geographies.
    • On the other hand, PBs have shown strong growth in revenues, while operating at a larger scale than SFBs.
    • The high-tech PB model has shown more rigour than the cost-heavy branch-based SFB model in terms of its impact on inclusion.

    Need for structural intervention

    • If we intend to make a real move ahead on the inclusion front, PBs will have to play a larger role.
    • However, to realize their full potential, they need certain structural interventions:

    1) Liabilities

    • PBs can take deposits only up to ₹1 lakh, which limits their ability to augment profit that can be further deployed to enhance efficiencies.
    • For a few segments, such as self-help groups and MSMEs, the savings account limit blocks the adoption of highly-accessible bank accounts.
    • Since the model has matured, it would be prudent to enhance the deposit limit to ₹5 lakh and benchmark it to Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation limits.
    • Banking Correspondents (BCs) are a critical link in driving financial inclusion.
    • PBs could offer low-value and simple fixed or recurring deposit products and sell to consumers through their BC distribution network, thus improving their viability.

    2) Assets

    • Currently, there is no national-level lender with the risk appetite for thin-credit consumers.
    • PBs can evolve new micro-lending models through their BC networks and mobile apps and create an alternate credit score for these consumers.
    • Allowing micro-lending by PBs could be a starting point. Thereafter, regulators may consider a transition path for them to become SFBs, or even Universal Banks.

    3) Working together for collective impact

    • PBs have an edge in technology and reach, while traditional players have a trust legacy.
    • For collective impact on inclusion, two options can be evaluated with safeguards in place.
    • One, PBs could co-originate loans with traditional institutions so that capital requirements are shared.
    • Two, they can originate credit and allow it to mature, or securitize and turn it into a market-linked instrument.
    • This could accelerate credit formalization.

    Conclusion

    We must remind ourselves that there is no one-size-fits-all solution to achieve complete financial inclusion for the diversified needs of our people. An enabling framework needs to be in place. Payments Banks, in particular, have the potential to bridge India’s financial inclusion gaps.