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Type: Op-ed

  • Changes needed in India’s agri-food policy

    Basic parameters to design optimal agri-food policy

    • UN population projections (2019) indicate that India is likely to be the most populous country by 2027.
    • By 2030, the country is likely to have almost 600 million people living in urban areas, who would need safe food.
    • Indian agriculture has an average holding size of 1.08 hectares (2015-16 data) while engaging 42 percent of the country’s workforce.
    • Cultivable land and water for agriculture are limited and already under severe pressure.

    What should be the basic features of agri-policy

    • 1) It should be able to produce enough food, feed, and fibre for its large population.
    • 2) It should do so in a manner that protects the environment — soil, water, air, and biodiversity and achieves higher production with global competitiveness.
    • 3) It should enable seamless movement of food, keeping marketing costs low, save on food losses in supply chains and provide safe and fresh food to consumers.
    • 4) Consumers should get safe and nutritious food at affordable prices.

    Need to change from sub-optimal to optimal policies

    • Free electricity and highly subsidized fertilizers, especially urea, are damaging groundwater levels, especially in the Green Revolution states.
    • Sugar and wheat are being produced at prices higher than global prices, and these crops can’t be exported unless they are heavily subsidized.
    • Excessive stocks of wheat and rice with the Food Corporation of India (FCI) are putting pressure on the agency’s finances.
    • Rice remains globally competitive, but it should be remembered that in exporting rice we are also exporting massive amounts of precious water — almost 25-30 billion cubic meters, annually.
    • This is the water that is pumped for rice cultivation, enabled by the subsidized power supply.
    • In the marketing segment also, for most of our agri-commodities, our costs remain high compared to several other developing countries due to poor logistics, low investments in supply lines, and high margins of intermediaries.
    • All these are signs of sub-optimal agri-food policies.

    Policy changes required: On the production level

    • Green Revolution states of Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh require crop diversification.
    • This can be done by switching from the highly subsidized input price policy (power, water, fertilizers) and MSP/FRP policy for paddy, wheat, and sugarcane, to more income support policies linked to saving water, soil, and air quality.
    • The Agri-marketing segment is also in the need of reforms especially with respect to bringing about efficiency in agri-marketing and lowering transaction costs.
    • It is believed that developing countries should invest at least one percent of their agri-GDP in agri-R&D and extension.
    • India invests about half.
    • It needs to double with commensurate accountability of R&D organizations, especially the ICAR and state agriculture universities to deliver.

    Policy changes required: On the consumption level

    • The biggest challenge for the next 10 years is that of malnutrition, especially amongst children.
    • The public distribution of food, through PDS, that relies on rice and wheat, and that too at more than 90 percent subsidy over costs of procurement, stocking, and distribution, is not helping much.
    • It is increasing the finances of FCI, whose borrowings have touched Rs 3 lakh crore.
    • To address that, beneficiaries of subsidized rice and wheat need to be given a choice to opt for cash equivalent to MSP plus 25 percent.
    • The FCI adds about 40 percent cost over the MSP while procuring, storing, and distributing food.
    • This cash option will save some money and also lead to supplies of more diversified and nutritious food to the beneficiaries.

    Consider the question “What are the issues with India’s agri-food policies? Suggest the changes in agri-food policies so as to make them optimal.

    Conclusion

    What we need is to set agri-food policies on a demand-driven approach, protecting sustainability and efficiency in production and marketing, and giving consumers more choices for nutritious food at affordable prices.

  • Problem of control and governance of knowledge in a globalised world

    The article highlights the issues with the criteria applied by the UGC to evaluate the faculty research.

    Impact of UGC standardisation on social sciences and humanities research

    • UGC has been the regulatory body responsible for maintaining standards in higher education, while addressing challenges of globalisation.
    • Processes of UGC mandated standardisation have in particular impacted social sciences and humanities research in Indian universities.
    • Over the years, UGC has linked institutional funding to ranking and accreditation systems like NAAC and NIRF.
    • In order to evaluate institutions, these bodies have evolved  criteria, which rank universities based on faculty research measured by citations in global journal databases like SCOPUS.
    • In comparison, importance granted to research outputs like books or other forms is declining.

    Issues with the criteria

    • The insistence of publication in journals fails to distinguish between the varied trajectory of disciplines.
    • While in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Management) disciplines, research is often highly objective and quantified.
    • In social sciences and humanities research is subjective, analytical and argumentative.
    • In disciplines like history, sociology, politics, philosophy, psychology and literature, researchers spend years writing books that engage with ideas in complex ways.
    • In devaluing books as authentic forms of research, UGC does major disservice to scholars of social sciences and humanities.
    • Due to emphasis on publication, teachers spend most of their productive time writing articles and getting them published, thereby missing out on quality engagement with pedagogy and research.

    Issues with the process of peer review

    • The process of peer review itself is subjective, and depends upon the knowledge, inclination and availability of time of the particular reviewer.
    • It is often quite challenging for scholars to meet peer-review standards of A-listed journals.
    • This has actually required the UGC to expand its own list, ending up including and subsequently deleting a large number of locally published journals.

    Issue of inaccessibility

    • Publication of research in paywalled journal databases makes research inaccessible for students as universities continue to cut down library budgets.
    • Students and teachers, access articles through pirated sites like Libgen and Scihub, prone to be shut down at any point of time as evident from the litigations.
    • Clearly, access to knowledge is structurally made inequitable in favour of the elite and/or moneyed institutions and their constituents.

    Way forward

    • The above arguments maintain for the possible multiplicity that can emerge as the end-result of research.
    • Interdisciplinary and practice-based research can throw up social and ecological experiments, artworks and performances, and numerous new outcomes yet to be conceived as research outputs.
    • While the UGC hopes to raise the standards to global levels, precarity of employment, longer teaching hours, a dismal student-teacher ratio, lack of sabbaticals, research and travel grants, access to research facilities and office space, adversely impact the research potential of teachers.
    • Regulating research needs to be replaced with facilitating research, allowing minds to think and gestate.
    • Regulations without facilitation will merely bureaucratise the governance of knowledge without generating any pathbreaking insights.

    Conclusion

    The UGC needs to widen its criteria which values publication of a book as much as a research paper in the mandated journal to widen the research in social sciences and humanities.

  • Recapitalization of state-owned banks: Privatization should do it

    The article suggest the approach to deal with the problems banking in India faces.

    Banking sector under stress

    • Along with the other sectors, pandemic dealt a severe blow to the banking sector.
    • Stress tests reported in the Financial Stability Report (FSR) indicate that the low ratio of capital to risk-adjusted-assets (CRAR) is likely to decline further.
    • To revive the economy and resume sustained high growth, bold structural reforms will have to be combined with strong fiscal and monetary measures.

    Declining credit growth: monetary challenge

    • India’s credit-to-gross domestic product ratio is around 51%.
    • 51% not too low compared to other countries at comparable levels of per capita income.
    • However, the worry is that credit growth is declining rapidly.
    • It is mainly attributable to rising risk aversion among lenders, reflecting the high and rising level of NPAs.
    • Risk aversion spiked during the economic contraction.

    Rising NPA of Public Sector Banks

    • The FSR stress tests now indicate that the gross NPA ratio is likely to go up to as much as 13.5% by September 2021 in the report’s baseline case and 14.8% in the ‘severe stress’ case.
    • Within the banking sector, conditions are much worse in public sector banks (PSBs) compared to private banks (PBs) or foreign banks (FBs).
    • The gross NPA figure is forecast to rise to 16.2% for PSBs as compared to 7.9% and 5.4% for PBs and FBs in the baseline case.
    • Clearly, high NPAs are primarily a problem for PSBs, which still account for 60% of India’s total bank credit.

    Expanding banking sector: bypass PSBs and give a big push to private banking

    • The recent report on Ownership and Corporate Structure for Indian Private Sector Banks submitted by an RBI internal working group (IWG) espouses this approach.
    • The IWG’s main  recommendation is to enable large corporations and industrial houses to acquire banking licences.
    • The proposal has been strongly opposed by former governors and deputy governors of RBI, several former chief economic advisers, a former finance secretary, and, most significantly, all save one of the many experts the IWG consulted.

    Four issues with the push to private banking

    • 1) With an industry CRAR of only 12%, the proposed raising of the promoter share cap to 26% could potentially leverage the promoter’s investment by 32 times.
    • The very high risk appetite generated by such leveraging would subject depositors to a high level of systemic risk, given the limited deposit insurance provided in India.
    • 2) Excessive risk appetite would lead to imprudent lending, especially connected lending to group companies. Conglomerates always find ways around regulatory restrictions against such connected lending.
    • 3) Three, a conglomerate’s bank would have access to insider information on borrower companies that compete with its group companies.
    • 4) Conglomerate banks would lead to massive concentration of economic power and political influence against not just competing companies, but even the regulator.

    Way forward

    • A safer and cleaner option would be to help the country’s banking sector grow through simultaneous privatization and recapitalization of PSBs.
    • However, these options do not change the ownership and governance structure of PSBs, which is what primarily is to blame for their poor performance.
    • A better option is for PSBs to recapitalize themselves by raising fresh equity.
    • It would be more prudent financially and also more acceptable politically to test this approach with one or two small PSBs.

    Conclusion

    Government should try to adopt the approach which reduces the risks associated with giving push to private players in the banking sector while making the PSBs more efficient.

    Back2Basics: CRAR-Capital to risk-adjusted-assets

    •  The CRAR is the capital needed for a bank measured in terms of the assets (mostly loans) disbursed by the banks.
    • Higher the assets, higher should be the capital by the bank.
    • A notable feature of CRAR is that it measures capital adequacy in terms of the riskiness of the assets or loans given.

  • Hybrid Annuity Model(HAM) for the benefit of the road sector

    The article explains the working of Hybrid Annuity Model in the road construction and the risks involved in the model.

    Investment in road sector

    • The central government has set a target of increasing the investment in infrastructure to over Rs 111 lakh crore over the period FY20-FY25.
    • Within the transportation segment, projects worth Rs 36.7 lakh crore, constituting 55% of transportation infra, are for the road sector.
    • The large investments planned in the road sector signifies its importance—it has a multiplier effect on the economy and provides large employment opportunities.

    Models for the road sector

    • Out of HAM (Hybrid Annuity Model) and BOT (Build, Operate and Transfer)—toll developers prefer the relatively lower risk HAM model.
    • This is due to its various positives like lower equity requirements, provision for mobilisation advances, better right of way availability, inflation-linked adjustments for bid project cost, termination payments during the construction period and de-linking construction and operations.
    • These HAM features have garnered a favourable response and mix of HAM awards has increased from 10% in FY16 to 48% in H1FY2021.

    How HAM works and risks involved

    • During the operations period for a HAM project, the recovery from authority is in the form of fixed annuity payments along with interest on balance accumulated annuity payments (calculated @300 bps over prevailing bank rate)
    • The only major risk for HAM is the prevailing low bank rates adversely affecting the overall project viability and returns.
    •  Such interest receipts account for around 45% of total inflows.
    • Low bank rate would thus reduce the overall inflows for a HAM project, thereby adversely affecting its debt coverage metrics and returns to the investors.
    • The second problem is related to delayed and inadequate interest rate transmission—there is a transmission lag for the project loan (linked to MCLR of banks).

    Changes in model concession agreement

    • As per revised concession agreement dated November 10, 2020, interest rate on annuities will be equal to the average MCLR of top 5 scheduled commercial banks plus 1.25% instead of bank rate.
    • With the average MCLR replacing the bank rate, there will be a natural hedge between the annuity inflows and interest costs,
    • This will reduce the interest rate risks to a large extent, and that too without any delay.
    • The other major revision is the grant payment from the authority which will now be paid in 10 instalments instead of five.
    • The other major revision is the grant payment from the authority which will now be paid in 10 instalments instead of five.
    • Thus, the spacing between the payment milestones is reduced.
    • This will improve the cash conversion cycle for the contractors executing the HAM projects as their payments are back to back in nature.
    • However, these changes will be applicable for new awards, and the fate of the existing HAM projects is hanging in the balance.

    Conclusion

    With improved attractiveness, HAM is expected to remain the mainstay for public-private partnership projects in the road sector.

    Source:-

    https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/hamsome-gains/2171329/

  • Covid-19 vaccine policy

    The article explains the challenge in the vaccination program for the Covid-19 vaccine.

    Issue of lack of data about the vaccine

    • In the COVID vaccine roll out, there is no clear data for either of the two vaccines proposed for use in the programme.
    • We do not know if they provide protection for life, for a year or six months, its efficacy among the elderly or the very sick or in stopping new infections.
    • Getting such data requires at least three years and cannot be obtained in a few months.

    Guidelines for implementing vaccine programme

    • Given these limitations, the government has drawn up strategic guidelines for implementing an vaccine programme covering 30 crore people by July.
    • The guidelines draw upon the knowledge of running national campaigns acquired over three decades of implementing the Universal Immunisation Programme.
    • These guidelines detail the skills, roles and responsibilities of the required human resources, logistics for delivering vaccines at point of use, physical infrastructure, monitoring systems based on digital platforms and feedback systems for reporting adverse events.
    • The approach involves 19 departments, donor organisations and NGOs at the national, state, district and block level.
    • The guidelines also mention the priority criteria — caregivers, front line workers of the departments of health, defence, municipalities and transportation; persons above the age of 50 and those below 50 having diabetes, hypertension, cancers and lung diseases.

    Issues with the guidelines

    • Of the 28,932 cold chain points, half are in the five southern states, Maharashtra and Gujarat.
    • Combined with poor human resources — doctors, nurses, pharmacists — a weak private sector, poor safety and hygiene standards, frequent power outages, poor infrastructure, the capacity to implement with the expected speed, quality and accuracy is daunting.
    • The immunisation can disrupt routine health service delivery — antenatal care, national programmes like those pertaining to TB or other immunisation drives.
    • While data for the above-50-year-olds is available in the electoral rolls, line listing of the under 50s with comorbidities can be challenging.
    • Not only are urban-rural variations substantial, but urban areas have weak public health infrastructure and a multiple number of private providers due to the poor implementation of the Clinical Establishment Act, 2010.
    • Patient tracking can be problematic.
    • The non-availability of efficacy data could also impact the procurement and supply of vaccines, result in huge wastage, and can introduce scope for errors and duplication.

    Way forward

    • Central to the success of the roll out will be the confidence of the people in the vaccines.
    • Coming out of this messy situation is necessary and one option — as adopted for the polio eradication programme — is to establish an independent team of experts under the aegis of the WHO to ensure the safety of the vaccine.
    • This will create confidence in the community and international authorities as well.

    Conclusion

    it is important to understand that vaccination is an incomplete solution to ending the epidemic, since the virus is mutating. Adopting safe behaviour is.

  • Improving fiscal situation through budget

    The budget could be an opportunity to increase the consumption which has been impacted by the pandemic and still continues to show the declining trends.

    Continuing decline in consumption

    • The first advance estimates of GDP for 2020-21 are much better than the earlier market consensus.
    • The demand side, however, continues to be in a decline with private consumption falling by 9.5 per cent and its share in the overall GDP reducing by full 100 basis points.
    • Per capita private consumption has contracted by 10.4 per cent, while capital formation has contracted by 14.5 per cent, with imports and exports also contracting.
    • Only government consumption remains in positive territory.

    What should be the growth in nominal GDP for 2021-22?

    • In terms of specific numbers, the average growth in nominal GDP for the decade ending in 2013-14 was 15 per cent, but the average GDP deflator at 7.6 per cent far outpaced average real GDP at 6.8 per cent.
    • For the six year period ending in 2019-20, average nominal GDP growth was 10.4 per cent, with real GDP growth of 6.8 per cent far outpacing the GDP deflator at 3.6 per cent.
    • It is thus extremely important that we ensure that the current inflation trajectory is kept under control through policy interventions.

    Policy recommendations for the farmers

    1) Changing condition for renewal of loan on Kisan Credit Cards

    • Out of the outstanding bank credit of about Rs 12 lakh crore to the agriculture and allied activities sector, Rs 7 lakh crore is for Kisan Credit Cards.
    • The KCC portfolio of banks is under stress over the years due to a variety of factors like crop losses, unremunerated prices, debt waivers and the rigidity of the KCC product.
    • Currently, the renewal of KCC loans with payment of both principal and interest ensures interest subvention.
    • It is proposed that for renewal of KCC loans of small and marginal farmers and for loans of other categories of farmers for amounts up to Rs 3 lakh, the payment of interest must be a sufficient condition for renewal as with other loans.
    • The above measure has the potential to reduce the credit cost for banks considerably on KCCs as NPAs can be prevented more easily and the interest rate on KCC loans can be further reduced.

    2) Formalise tenancy and provide credit to tenant farmers

    • There are 11.5 crore farmers who are PM-KISAN beneficiaries — 6.5 crore farmers have KCC.
    • Thus, the remaining 4-5 crore could be land owning cultivators and at least 3-4 crore of such could be tenants/lessees/landless.
    • Currently, such tenant farmers are not formalised into the credit deliveries of scheduled commercial banks.
    • As of now, it requires state interventions for tenancy certificates which is only available in Andhra Pradesh.
    • Formation of a SHG model under the Deen Dayal Antodoya Yojana will formalise tenancy even without formal documentation of tenancy.
    • This will enable formal lending to take place to three crore landless farmers.

    3) Increasing investment in health and education

    • For health, it government could introduce medical savings account with a defined scheme to deduct interest from the savings account and pay towards a Mediclaim policy.
    • For the record, the size of the health insurance is Rs 32,000 crore and the savings bank interest is Rs 1.15 lakh crore.
    • The government should also consider exempting all retail and health insurance products from GST.

    Three suggestions on the fiscal situation

    • First,Withdraw all tax appeals.
    • Second, accept all domestic arbitration decisions against government departments/agencies.
    • Third, clear all outstanding dues to all parastatal agencies within a stipulated time.
    • This will be a milestone structural administrative change that could be even thought of as a one-time balance sheet entry recognising liabilities and paying them off.
    • As a consequence, we could jump multiple positions on the Ease of Doing Business rankings.

    Conclusion

    By implementing these steps in the budget the government could use this opportnity to stimulate the economy and aid the economic recovery.

  • Issues with suspension of the Farm laws

    The article deals with the recent Supreme Court order in which it suspended the implementation of the Farm Acts. This order gives rise to several issues. The article deals with these issues.

    What is the issue

    • The Supreme Court has suspended the implementation of the farm laws.
    • The court created a committee to ascertain the various grievances of the farmers.
    • But the Supreme Court has not clarified the legal basis of this suspension.

    What are the issues with the suspension?

    • The court’s action, at first sight, is a violation of separation of powers.
    • It also gives the misleading impression that a distributive conflict can be resolved by technical or judicial means.
    • It is also not a court’s job to mediate a political dispute.
    • Its job is to determine unconstitutionality or illegality.
    • Even in suspending laws there needs to be some prima facie case that these lapses might have taken place.
    • It has set a new precedent for putting on hold laws passed by Parliament without substantive hearings on the content of the laws.
    • Also in appointing the committee, the court has violated the first rule of mediation: The mediators must be acceptable to all parties and appointed in consultation with them.

    Conclusion

    The Supreme Court order has given the government a setback while not addressing the concerns of the protesting farmers. The court needs to consider these facts and mend its implications.

  • Reclaiming SAARC

    The article examines the issues are making it difficult to function and suggests its revival.

    Dysfunctional SAARC and its implications

    • The year 2020 marked the sixth year since the leaders of the eight nations that make up SAARC were able to meet.
    • India-Pakistan issues have impacted other meetings of SAARC as well.
    • Inactive SAARC is making it easier for member countries, as well as international agencies, to deal with South Asia as a fragmented group.
    • India’s refusal to allow Pakistan to host the SAARC summit is akin to giving Pakistan a ‘veto’ over the entire SAARC process.
    • The events of 2020, particularly the novel coronavirus pandemic and China’s aggressions at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) shone a new spotlight on this mechanism.
    • This should make the government review its position and reverse that trend.

    Reasons India should review its position on SAARC

    1) India attend other forums with Pakistan

    • India continued to attend Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meetings along with their Pakistani counterparts.
    • While China’s incursions in Ladakh constituted the larger concern in the year, India did not decline to attend meetings with the Chinese leadership at the SCO, the Russia-India-China trilateral, the G-20 and others.
    • No concerns over territorial claims stopped the government from engaging with Nepal either.

    2) Pandemic caused challenges

    • Reviving SAARC is crucial to countering the common challenges brought about by the pandemic.
    • Studies have shown that South Asia’s experience of the pandemic has been unique from other regions of the world.
    • This experience needs to be studied further in a comprehensive manner in order to counter future pandemics.
    • Such an approach is also necessary for the distribution and further trials needed for vaccines, as well as developing cold storage chains for the vast market that South Asia represents.

    3) Impact of the pandemic on economies of South Asia

    • Apart from the overall GDP slowdown, global job cuts which will lead to an estimated 22% fall in revenue for migrant labour and expatriates from South Asian countries.
    • World Bank have suggested that South Asian countries work as a collective to set standards for labour from the region, and also to promoting a more intra-regional, transnational approach towards tourism, citing successful examples including the ‘East Africa Single Joint Visa’ system.
    • In the longer term, there will be a shift in priorities towards health security, food security, and job security, that will also benefit from an “all-of” South Asia approach.
    • While it will be impossible for countries to cut themselves off from the global market entirely, regional initiatives will become the “Goldilocks option”.

    4) Dealing with the China challenge

    • In dealing with the challenge from China too, both at India’s borders and in its neighbourhood, a unified South Asian platform remains India’s most potent countermeasure.
    • At the border, tensions with Pakistan and Nepal amplify the threat perception from China, while other SAARC members (minus Bhutan), all of whom are Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partners of China will be hard placed to help individually.
    • Significantly, from 2005-14, China actually wanted to join SAARC.
    • Despite the rebuff, China has continued to push its way into South Asia.

    Conclusion

    Seen through Beijing’s prism, India’s SAARC neighbourhood may be a means to contain India, with the People’s Liberation Army strategies against India over the LAC at present, or in conjunction with Pakistan or Nepal at other disputed fronts in the future. New Delhi must find its own prism with which to view its South Asian neighbourhood as it should be: a unit that has a common future, and as a force-multiplier for India’s ambitions on the global stage.

  • Domestic politics and its influence on foreign policy

    The article examines the issue of intervention in domestic politics by the external powers and the practical utilities of principles of non-intervention in the internal matters of neighbouring countries.

    Political turmoil in Nepal and India’s reaction

    • Nepal has been going through political crisis for some days now.
    • India’s reluctance to be drawn into the political turmoil in Kathmandu has drawn much attention.
    • India’s refusal is in contrast to Beijing’s active effort to preserve the unity of the ruling communist party in Kathmandu.

    The principles of sovereignty and non-intervention and its violations

    • India and China always insist that other countries should stop interfering in their respective internal affairs.
    • But big nations always intervene in other nations but fend off potential threats to their own sovereignty.
    • That does not prevent others from messing with India and Beijing.
    • Intervention is part of international life; all powers — big and small — frequently violate the principle of sovereignty.
    • The concept of national sovereignty was never absolute.
    • Big nations tend to intervene more, and the smaller ones find ways to manage this through the politics of balancing against their large neighbours.

    Analysing the causes of external interventions

    • The pressure for external intervention often comes from major domestic constituencies within.
    • For example, the conflict between Sinhala majority and Tamil minority in Sri Lanka produces political pressure on Delhi to intervene in Sri Lanka.
    • The demand sometimes comes from outside.
    • In Nepal, for example, elite competition sees different factions trying to mobilise external powers.
    • In recent years, we have also seen the intense interaction between domestic power struggles and external powers like India and China.
    • The Maldives is one example.

    Factors responsible for intervention

    • Given the nature of South Asia’s political geography, very few problems can be isolated within the territories of nations.
    • There is also the tension between the shared cultural identity in the subcontinent.
    • There is also the determination of the smaller nations to define a contemporary identity independent of India.
    • The bitter legacies of Partition leave the domestic political dynamics of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan tied together.
    • India’s relations with its smaller neighbours are also burdened by the legacy of India’s past hegemony and the emerging challenges to it.

    What should be India’s regional policy?

    • India can neither stand apart nor jump into every domestic conflict within the neighbourhood.
    • It is always about political judgement about specific situations.
    • Active and direct intervention in the domestic politics of neighbours must be a prudent exception rather than the rule in India’s regional diplomacy.

    Conclusion

    The subcontinent has historically been an integrated geopolitical space with a shared civilisational heritage. Equally true is the reality of multiple contemporary sovereignties within South Asia. In dealing with these twin realities, the principles guiding India’s engagement should be based on  “mutual respect and mutual sensitivity”.

  • India’s New Deal moment

    The article explains the opportunity presented by the budget to steer the economy out of the uncertain territory.

    3 characteristics of India’s economic recovery

    • First, India has broken the link between virus proliferation and mobility earlier and more successfully than many countries.
    • Second, the employment rate gradually improved till September but has weakened since then, even as the economy has progressively opened up.
    • CMIE’s labour market survey still reveals 18 million fewer employed (about 5 per cent of the total employed) compared to pre-pandemic levels.
    • A third phenomenon is large firms have endured the crisis better and are gaining market share at the expense of smaller firms.
    • To the extent there is a migration of activity from the informal/SME firms to larger firms, tax collections and Sensex/Nifty earnings should get a boost, even holding the economic pie constant.
    • Greater scale and formalisation undoubtedly augur well for medium-term productivity but could increase near-term labour market frictions and boost pricing power.

    Increased prospects of K-shaped recovery

    • Above 3 factors increases prospects of a K-shaped recovery from COVID, a phenomenon playing out globally.
    • Households at the top of the pyramid are likely to have seen their incomes largely protected, and savings rates increased.
    • Meanwhile, households at the bottom are likely to have witnessed permanent hits to jobs and incomes.

    3 Implications of K-shaped recovery

    • 1) What we are currently witnessing is pent-up demand from the upper-income households.
    • However, households at the bottom have experienced a permanent loss of income in the forms of jobs and wage cuts, this will be a recurring drag on demand, if the labour market does not heal faster.
    • 2) To the extent that COVID has triggered an effective income transfer from the poor to the rich, this will be demand-impeding in the steady state.
    • This is explianed by the fact that marginal propensity to consume at the bottom is higher than that at the top, just as the marginal propensity to import at the top is higher than at the bottom.
    • 3) If COVID-19 reduces competition or increases the inequality of incomes and opportunities, it could impinge on trend growth in developing economies by hurting productivity and tightening political economy constraints.

    Factors that need to be considered to decide the policy response

    • Policy need to look beyond the next few quarters and anticipate the state of the macro economy post this expression of pent-up demand.
    • The key factor is wheather private sector starts re-investing and re-hiring.
    • With manufacturing utilisation rates below 70 per cent pre-COVID, an investment revival, in turn, will depend crucially on the
    • Exports should benefit from strengthening global growth as the world gets progressively vaccinated and more US fiscal stimulus.

    Upcoming budget: India’s New Deal moment

    • It’s against this backdrop that the upcoming budget presents India with its New Deal moment.
    • Given the prevailing demand uncertainties, the budget represents an opportune moment for the Centre, in conjunction with the states, to embark on a large physical and social infrastructure push.
    • This will simultaneously boost near-term aggregate demand, crowd in private investment, create jobs to soak up the unemployed, and improve the economy’s external competitiveness.
    • Job creation, health and education, in turn, will be a start to help mitigate COVID-induced inequalities.

    How to finance the investment?

    • Gradual near-term consolidation coupled with a credible medium-term fiscal plan will be key to anchoring the bond market and underscoring an adherence to macro stability.
    • How then can public investment increase meaningfully if the headline deficit (projected above 11 per cent of GDP) must come down?
    • Public investment could be increased only if the public investment push is financed by aggressive asset sales-strategic sales, disinvestment, land and infrastructure monetisation.
    • In this manner, expenditure to GDP can actually rise next year — generating an expansionary fiscal impulse to the economy — while automatic stabilisers are used to reduce the headline fiscal deficit.

    Conclusion

    India’s faster-than-expected rebound is very encouraging. But given labour market pressures and prospects of a K-shaped recovery around the world, the economy will need to be carefully nurtured and stoked. The budget presents a crucial opportunity to make a big down payment towards this end.