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GS Paper: GS2-19.Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.

  • India and the Great Power rivalry

    Context

    Germany has become a weaker link in the Western coalition against Moscow and Beijing.

    The US-Russia-China power dynamics

    • There is a convergence between China and Russia on a range of issues from NATO expansion to the AUKUS alliance. 
    • Despite their problems with the US, both Moscow and Beijing want a productive partnership with Washington.
    • Both Russia and China want to leverage the united front to negotiate better terms from America.
    • Exploiting the contradiction between Russia and China: Washington, in turn, wants to explore the cleavages between Moscow and Beijing.
    • Focus on challenges from China: Biden’s outreach to Putin last year was based on the premise that the US could better focus on the challenges from China in the Indo-Pacific if there was a reasonable relationship with Russia in Europe.
    • Putin is trying to take advantage of that proposition by raising the stakes in Europe.
    • Exploiting economic means: If Putin is focused on military means to rewrite the European security order with the US, Xi is focused on the economic means to alter the US ties.
    • Xi is making a big play for the Wall Street bankers who see merits in engagement with Beijing and lobby Washington to scale down the confrontation with China.

    The US resilience

    •  The chaos of American domestic politics and the continuing arguments between the US and its European partners tend to amplify the disagreements within the West.
    •  It would be a mistake for Putin and Xi to mistake Western disagreements for strategic divergence.
    • Consensus on challenging China: The last few years have seen the quick emergence of a new US consensus on challenging China despite the polarisation of the American political class.
    • The idea that the US can’t risk a two-front challenge with Russia and China is popular but mistaken.
    • Power of the US and its allies: Despite the dramatic rise of China and its new partnership with Russia, the united front can’t really match the comprehensive national power of the US and its allies.
    • India is now a strategic partner of the US and faces growing challenges from China.
    • In Asia, Biden has revived the Anglosphere (the AUKUS alliance with the UK and Australia), elevated the Quad to the summit level, and reached out to the ASEAN.
    • In Europe, the US is getting NATO in order.
    • Britain has taken the lead in the diplomatic confrontation with Russia.
    • French President Emmanuel Macron is coordinating with the US in dealing with the Ukraine crisis.
    • Beyond the rebuilding of US alliances, Washington has an important lever which is the exploitation of the domestic political vulnerabilities of “Czar Putin” and “Emperor Xi”.

    Challenge for India

    • New dynamics between two coalitions: India’s approach will depend upon the new dynamic between the two coalitions as well as its own relations with China, Russia, and the US.
    • As both sides consolidate their global coalitions, it will get harder to be in the middle.
    • India would like to see Russia find accommodation with the West in Europe; but if Russia’s relations with the West deteriorate further in Europe, Delhi is unlikely to let Moscow undermine its growing partnership with the US and its allies.

    Conclusion

    With the return of great power rivalry coinciding with India’s deteriorating ties with China, Delhi now stands closer than ever before to the West.

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  • Why UNSC joint statement on nuclear weapons is important

    Context

    The leaders of five nuclear-weapons States — the US, Russia, China, the UK, and France, also known as the P5 issued a joint statement on preventing nuclear war and avoiding the ongoing global arms race.

    Overview of the P5 statement

    • It is not a binding resolution and reiterates some of the core obligations of the NPT.
    • The P5 statement reaffirms that a “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought” because of its “far-reaching consequences”.
    • The statement also expresses a commitment to the group’s Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) obligations and “to prevent the unauthorized or unintended use of nuclear weapons”.
    • Declaring that an arms race would benefit none and endanger all, the P5 have undertaken to:
    • (1) work with all states to create a security environment more conducive to progress on disarmament with the ultimate goal of a world without nuclear weapons.
    • (2) continue seeking bilateral and multilateral diplomatic approaches to avoid military confrontations, strengthen stability and predictability, increase mutual understanding and confidence”.
    • (3) pursue “constructive dialogue with mutual respect and acknowledgment of each other’s security interests and concerns”.

    Bold action on 6 measures

    • Bold action on six fronts is necessary.
    • 1) Chart a path for nuclear disarmament: That member states should chart a path forward on nuclear disarmament.
    • 2) Transparency and dialogue: They should agree to new measures of “transparency and dialogue”.
    • 3) Address nuclear crises: They should address the “simmering” nuclear crises in the Middle East and Asia.
    • 4) Strengthen global bodies: They should strengthen the existing global bodies that support non-proliferation, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
    • 5) Peaceful use of nuclear technology: They should promote the peaceful use of nuclear technology.
    • 6) Elimination of nuclear weapons: they should remind “the world’s people that eliminating nuclear weapons is the only way to guarantee that they will never be used.

    Peace education and the right to peace

    • Peace is necessary for rights, freedom, equality, and justice, and for that reason, we need what Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. called “education in the obvious”— namely, peace education.
    • This is required at multiple levels, ranging across the planetary, global, supranational, regional, national, and local levels of social cognition and action.
    •  UN Resolution 39/11 (November 12, 1984) proclaims that the peoples of our planet have a sacred right to peace and equally solemnly declares that the “preservation of the right of peoples to peace and the promotion of its implementation constitute a fundamental obligation of each State”.
    • The subsequent UN Resolution 53/243 B, declaring a program of action for a culture of peace (1999) also owes a great deal to Gandhi’s legacy and mission.

    Conclusion

    The statement is politically significant given the unimaginable danger posed by the 13,000 nuclear weapons currently believed to be held by a handful of countries, and the growing specter of loose nukes, which may be deployed by armed terrorist groups for nefarious purposes.

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  • Preventing genocide

    Context

    Incendiary speeches at a religious assembly include calls for the genocide of Muslims in India and can be seen as part of an ongoing pattern of targeting minorities.

    Background of the convention against genocide

    • India’s role: India has signed and ratified the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide of 1948.
    • In 1946, Cuba, India and Panama co-sponsored General Assembly Resolution 96(I), which affirmed genocide as a ‘crime under international law’.
    • As a result of this resolution, a convention on the prohibition of genocide was drafted, which was passed by the General Assembly in 1948 and came into effect in 1951, with more than 150 states party to the convention presently.
    • Legal obligation: Legal obligations on states that are party to the convention include:
    • the obligation not to commit genocide,
    • to prevent genocide, and to punish genocide(Article I),
    • to enact legislation to give effect to the provisions of the convention (Article V);
    • to provide for effective penalties for those found guilty of criminal conduct (Article V); and
    • the obligation to try those charged with genocide in a competent tribunal (Article VI).

    No legislation enacted by India

    • Since signing the Genocide Convention and ratifying it, to date India has not enacted any legislation in accordance with Article VI of the Genocide Convention.
    • At the outset, India is in violation of its international obligation to criminalise genocide within its domestic law per Articles V, VI and VII, and to take all means to ensure the prevention of genocide.
    •  Indian domestic law shows that there are no comparable provisions for the prosecution of any mass crimes, least of all genocide.
    • Indian Penal Code provisions relating to rioting, unlawful assembly and ‘promoting enmity between different groups’ do not embody the basic elements of the crime of genocide, which is against a collectivity or a group, with the specific intent to cause its destruction.
    • These also do not pertain to another key aspect of the Genocide Convention – that of prevention, and creating the conditions in which such hate speech and other associated acts are not allowed to flourish.

    Significance of the Gambia’s proceedings before the ICJ against Myanmar

    •  The Gambia has initiated proceedings before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Myanmar on the basis of the Convention.
    • The ICJ, relying on a previous case of Belgium v. Senegal, stated, “It follows that any State party to the Genocide Convention, and not only a specially affected State, may invoke the responsibility of another State party with a view to ascertaining the alleged failure to comply with its obligations erga omnes partes, and to bring that failure to an end.”

    Conclusion

    It is more imperative than ever that international legal protections against genocide are incorporated in domestic legislation. Furthermore, the fact that India has international legal obligations under the Genocide Convention which it is not adhering to must be rectified.

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  • Domestic and geopolitical risks India faces in 2022

    Context

    Risks in 2022 could be both domestic and geopolitical, with many precepts that the world has been accustomed to being at risk. Democracy itself could face serious headwinds this year.

     Challenges to democracy

    • The world has recently seen the rise of authoritarian rulers in many countries.
    • What is worrisome is that democratic tenets which have been under attack in recent years appear set to face more onslaughts this year.
    • The United States, which was widely viewed as a major bulwark for democracy, appears to have developed certain pathological infirmities.

    Geopolitical challenges and risks

    [1] Disruption by China

    • The role of China is possibly the most disrupting one, given the challenge it poses to the existing international order.
    • Militarily, China is openly challenging U.S. supremacy in many areas, including ‘state-of-the-art weaponry’ such as hyper-sonic technology.
    • China is now threatening Taiwan, which could well become one of the flashpoints of conflict in 2022.
    • The dip in China’s economic profile in the past year and more could also lead to new tensions in the Asia-Pacific region in 2022.

    [2] Russia-Ukraine conflict

    • The other major risk of a war in 2022, stems from the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine — the latter being backed by the U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces.
    • During the past three decades, NATO has expanded its reach almost a 1,000 miles to the east in violation of an earlier tacit understanding.
    • Russia appears determined that Ukraine should be the ‘last frontier’ and, if need be, ensure this through military force.
    • The situation has grave possibilities and could result in a series of cyclical outcomes with considerable damage potential.

    [3] Instability in the vast region

    • Unrest in Kazakhstan: The current unrest in Kazakhstan, which till recently was one of the more stable Central Asian nations, is perhaps symptomatic of what is in store.
    • Recent events in Kazakhstan demonstrates a sharper cleavage between the U.S.-led West and its principal opponents, Russia and China.
    • This is not a good sign for the world already wracked by a series of coups or internecine strife as in Ethiopia, Libya and certain regions of West Asia and North Africa.

    [4] Return of Taliban and security implications for India

    • Shift in balance of power: Of particular significance to India is that the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan has led to a material shift in the balance of power in India’s periphery.
    • Developments in Afghanistan have fuelled the ambitions of quite a few ‘anti-state militant groups’ across the region.
    • Even in Pakistan, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has become energised and is enlarging its sphere of action to other parts of Asia, notably Kazakhstan.
    • This will have an unsettling effect across large parts of Asia.
    • New evidence suggests that on India’s eastern flank, viz. Indonesia, a resurgence of radical Islamist activities is taking place.
    • The Jemaah Islamiyah has reportedly become more active in Indonesia.

    [5] India’s border issue with China

    • The most serious issue that India confronts today is how to deal with a China that has become more confrontational.
    • India’s membership of the Quad still rankles as far as China’s psyche is concerned, and during 2022, may well result in China embarking on new adventurist actions at many more points on the Sino-Indian border compelling India to react.
    • Additionally, India will need to determine how best to respond to China’s provocations.
    • Strengthen military posture: India would need to strengthen its military posture, both as a means to deter China and also to convince India’s neighbours that it can stand up to China.

    Challenges ahead for India

    • Challenge in Central Asia: Diplomatically, in 2022, India may find itself vulnerable in dealing with the turmoils which have occurred in two areas of strategic interest to it, viz. Central Asia and West Asia.
    • Challenge in West Asia: In West Asia, the challenge for India is how to manage its membership of the Second Quad (India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the U.S.) with the conflicting interests of different players in the region.
    • Limits to balancing: There is a limit to the kind of balancing act that India can perform, whether it be with regard to buying S-400 missile systems from Russia, risking potential sanctions from Washington under Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) or manoeuvering between the Arab States, Israel, Iran and the U.S. in West Asia.

    Conclusion

    Facing a host of unprecedented challenges, India’s leaders and diplomats must not only take stock of the dangers that exist but also be ready on how to manage the risks that are well evident.

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  • China does not have it all its way in the South China Sea

    Context

    South-East Asian countries are increasingly wary of their giant neighbour.

    Background of dispute

    • Disputes in the South China Sea go back decades.
    • But it was only ten years ago that China, which makes maritime claims for nearly the whole sea, greatly upped the ante.
    • Countries involved: They involve Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam, all with contesting claims.
    • China provoked a stand-off that left it in control of an uninhabited atoll, Scarborough Shoal, which under un maritime law clearly belongs to the Philippines.
    • Then China launched a massive terraforming exercise, turning reefs and rocks into artificial islands hosting airstrips and bases.

    China’s strong-arm tactics

    • China’s long-term aim is to project Chinese power deep into the South China Sea and beyond, and to hold the Americans away during any conflict.
    • The immediate aim, though, is to dominate politically and economically as much as militarily.
    • China has challenged oil-and-gas activity by both Indonesia and Malaysia, and sent drilling rigs to both countries’ eezs and continental shelves.
    • It has bullied foreign energy companies into dropping joint development with Vietnam and others.

    Implications

    • China has paid a diplomatic price.
    • Impact on relations with ASEAN: Had Mr Xi engaged in none of the terraforming and bullying, China would be better admired among members of the ten-country Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN).
    • Naval presence of the US: The United States and its Western allies have upped their naval presence in the sea, welcomed by most ASEAN members.

    Negotiation on Code of conduct on South China Sea

    • For years China dragged its feet on agreeing with ASEAN a code of conduct on the South China Sea, a principle agreed on 20 years ago in order to promote co-operation and reduce tensions.
    • These days, China likes to play willing.
    • China is demanding, in effect, the right of veto over ASEAN members’ naval exercises with foreign powers.
    • It also wants to keep out foreigners from joint oil-and-gas development.
    • Such demands are unacceptable to members.

    Conclusion

    Despite China’s efforts to establish its wild claims of sovereignty, China has been facing sustained resistance from the ASEAN countries.

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  • Taiwan: An important ally in the battle against authoritarianism

    Context

    President Joe Biden-led Summit for Democracy was held on December 9-10. The summit was driven by the idea that in the face of populism, authoritarianism it is critical to keep the “democratic” flock together.

    The salience of Summit for Democracy

    • As a goal in itself: The salience of this summit lies in a deeper understanding that democracy is not just a form of government, it is a goal in itself, a value that must be cherished, preserved and celebrated.
    • Democracy as a way of life: Unlike other political systems, democracy is also a way of life — a work in progress that needs sustained attention and careful nurturing to make it more resilient.

    Taiwan as a desired partner of like-minded democracies

    • Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy (NSP) was launched in 2016 to bring Asia closer to Taiwan and vice-versa.
    • The NSP is aimed to be a pivotal tool to engage like-minded democracies in the region.
    • Role in the post-pandemic world: The post-pandemic world would be more invested in some of these areas — for example, health diplomacy and collaboration in the medical sector, climate change mitigation, and developing sustainable and resilient supply chains.
    • Platform for semiconductor industry: Taiwan is already proving its efficacy as a viable platform for the semiconductor industry.
    • Resilient supply chain mechanism: The US and its friends in the region, particularly India, Japan and Australia, have been proactively exploring possibilities of creating resilient supply chain mechanisms.
    • With its technological knowhow, and shared interests and concerns, Taiwan fits perfectly in this agenda.
    • EU’s renewed interest in Indo-Pacific: Greater interactions between Taiwan and EU on the technology cooperation front, stimulated by the latter’s renewed interest in the Indo-Pacific region, makes Taiwan a desired partner of fellow democracies.
    •  As an industrialised democracy, Taiwan could play an important role, especially since countries are trying to reduce dependence on China and establish supply chain resilience.

    Conclusion

    It is important for liberal democracies to acknowledge that they are facing similar challenges and view Taiwan as an indispensable partner. Deft diplomacy is in order since transnational challenges demand joint efforts by liberal democracies.

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  • What is Nord Stream Pipeline?

    Germany has warned about severe consequences for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany if Moscow attacked Ukraine.

    Nord Stream 2 Pipeline

    • It is a system of offshore natural gas pipelines running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany.
    • It includes two active pipelines running from Vyborg to Lubmin near Greifswald forming the original Nord Stream, and two further pipelines under construction running from Ust-Luga to Lubmin termed Nord Stream 2.
    • In Lubmin the lines connect to the OPAL line to Olbernhau on the Czech border and to the NEL line to Rehden near Bremen.
    • The first line Nord Stream-1 was laid and inaugurated in 2011 and the second line in 2012.
    • At 1,222 km in length, Nord Stream is the longest sub-sea pipeline in the world, surpassing the Langeled pipeline.

    Why is the pipeline controversial?

    • The US believed that the project would increase Europe’s dependence on Russia for natural gas.
    • Currently, EU countries already rely on Russia for 40 percent of their gas needs.
    • The project also has opponents in eastern Europe, especially Ukraine, whose ties with Russia have seriously deteriorated in the aftermath of the Crimean conflict in 2014.
    • There is an existing land pipeline between Russia and Europe that runs through Ukraine.
    • The country feels that once Nord Storm 2 is completed, Russia could bypass the Ukrainian pipeline, and deprive it of lucrative transit fees of around $3 billion per year.
    • Ukraine also fears another invasion by Russia once the new pipeline is operational.

     

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  • EU unveils Global Gateway Project

    The European Union has unveiled a project called ”Global Gateway” that is worth 300 billion euros ($340 billion). The project is being seen as a response to China’s Belt and Road strategy.

    Global Gateway Project

    • It is the initiative Build Back Better World and the European Global Gateway that are reinforcing each other.
    • The bloc will mobilize the financial aid in public and private infrastructure investment around the world.
    • It is an offshoot of a plan by G7 countries to offer developing countries an alternative to Belt and Road.
    • The project will probably extend the remit of the European Fund for Strategic Investment, or create a similar institution, which can act as a guarantor for riskier investments in the ‘Global South’.
    • The EU has indicated it especially wants to compete for infrastructure development projects in Africa.

    About Belt and Road Initiative

    • The Belt and Road is a flagship project of Chinese President Xi Jinping that was launched in 2013.
    • Beijing has invested $139.8 billion in the project which is the centerpiece of Chinese foreign policy.
    • BRI aims to develop land and sea infrastructure to better connect China to Asia, Europe and Africa for trade and development, and it has found many partners around the world.

     

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  • India-Central Asia relations

    In his speech at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meet last month, PM Modi stressed on commitment for increasing its connectivity with land-locked Central Asia.

    What is the Central Asia Region?

    • Central Asia is a region in Asia which stretches from the Caspian Sea in the west to China and Mongolia in the east, and from Afghanistan and Iran in the south to Russia in the north.
    • It includes the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

    India-Central Asia Ties

    • India has decades-old wish to connect with the resource and fuel-rich Central Asian nations.
    • Since the emergence of the Central Asian Republics as independent countries in the early 1990s, New Delhi has been trying to establish ties with them.

    Trade and collaboration

    • India’s trade with the five Central Asian Republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan—was below $ 2 billion in 2018.
    • The potential areas for collaboration include construction, sericulture and pharmaceuticals to IT and tourism.
    • Much of this trade was routed through Iran, Russia or the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

    Efforts for connectivity

     

    1. Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline
    2. Development of Iran’s Chabahar Port
    3. Zaranj-Delaram Highway
    4. International North-South (Transit) Corridor (INSTC)

    About INSTC

    • In 2000, India, Iran and Russia agreed on a new route for trade that later came to be known as INSTC.
    • It was aimed at cutting the costs and time in moving cargo between Russia and India.
    • The pact was ratified in 2002 and the original multi-modal route linked Mumbai in India to Bandar Abbas and Bandar-e-Anzali in Iran, then across the Caspian Sea to Astrakhan, Moscow and St. Petersburg in Russia.
    • Over the years, more countries joined the INSTC.
    • In 2003, India and Iran announced the development of the Chabahar port in the Sistan-Balochistan province.

    China’s opportunism: Based on proximity

    • China’s trade with Central Asia was $50 billion-$60 billion in the same period.
    • The obvious advantage in China’s favour is geographical proximity.

    Hurdles for India

    • Lack of mutual trust: Unfortunately, many connectivity options are not open to them today due to the lack of mutual trust.
    • Pakistan factor: Tensions with Pakistan mean there is no viable land route towards Central Asia.
    • Iran and the US sanctions: Efforts to look for a circuitous route via Iran (and Afghanistan) have stalled due to US sanctions on Iran.

    Issues in Iran-Afghanistan bypass route

    Recent events acquire broader geopolitical relevance for India in this route:

    • Taliban takeover of Afghanistan: The takeover of Afghanistan by the Pakistan-backed Taliban has severely set back India’s plans in Central Asia.
    • Iran’s bypassing of India: Iran’s overtures has been clearly visible after itself allocating Farzad-B Gas exploration contract to another company bypassing India.

    Central Asia’s importance for India

    • Fossil fuels: While Central Asia is seen as fuel-rich and, hence, important for an energy-starved India.
    • Mineral richness: Central Asian states are also mineral-rich, and Kazakhstan, for one, has been a source of uranium for India’s nuclear power plants.
    • Market for India: A country like India which is seen as a major economy has to have a presence in these markets. INSTC also offers a safe and cost-effective route to the EU (European Union) market.
    • Convergence against Terrorism: India can forge a common position on terrorism and radicalization, which is a matter of concern to the region as much as it is to India.

    India’s recent engagement

    • Defence collaboration: In recent years, New Delhi has engaged with Central Asian Republics in the defence sphere through military exercises (say Ex Kazind).
    • Engagement at UN: Political and economic engagement is also important, given the imperatives of working together at a body such as the United Nations (UN).
    • Technological ties: India has set up universities there—Sharda and Amity are examples.

    Scope for expansion

    • Dairy Sector: There is scope for collaboration in the dairy sector.
    • Pharma: Indian firms have been setting up pharmaceutical units in Russia that can serve these countries as well.
    • Info Technology: IT and IT-enabled services are two other areas.
    • Cultural connect: Bollywood movies are quite famous in these countries.

    Way forward

    • India needs to develop into stronger bonds of trade and commercial bonds which will be possible once the INSTC crystallizes.

    Conclusion

    • The road ahead in the short term is difficult as India doesn’t seem to have any real leverage to get the connectivity projects with Central Asia going.
    • India has been negotiating with individual bilateral partners though.

     

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    Also read:

    [Burning Issue] Ashgabat Agreement

  • A ‘Taiwan flashpoint’ in the Indo-Pacific

    Context

    If the rising confrontation between the United States and China erupts into a clash of arms, the likely arena may well be the Taiwan Strait.

    Historical background of the Taiwan issue

    • The Guomindang (KMT) forces under Chiang Kai-shek lost the 1945-49 civil war to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 1949. forces under Mao Zedong.
    • Chiang retreated to the island of Taiwan and set up a regime that claimed authority over the whole of China and pledged to recover the mainland eventually.
    • The CCP in turn pledged to reclaim what it regarded as a “renegade” province and achieve the final reunification of China.
    • Role of the U.S.: Taiwan could not be occupied militarily by the newly established People’s Republic of China (PRC) as it became a military ally of the United States during the Korean War of 1950-53.
    • This phase came to an end with the U.S. recognising the PRC as the legitimate government of China in 1979, ending its official relationship with Taiwan and abrogating its mutual defence treaty with the island.
    • Strategic ambiguity policy of the US: Nevertheless, the U.S. has declared that it will “maintain the ability to come to Taiwan’s defence” while not committing itself to do so.
    • This is the policy of “strategic ambiguity”.
    • The PRC has pursued a typical carrot and stick policy to achieve the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland.
    • It has held out the prospect, indeed preference for peaceful reunification, through promising a high degree of autonomy to the island under the “one country two systems”.
    • The “one country two systems” formula first applied to Hong Kong after its reversion to Chinese sovereignty in 1997.

    China-Taiwan economic links

    • Taiwan business entities have invested heavily in mainland China and the two economies have become increasingly integrated.
    • Between 1991 and 2020, the stock of Taiwanese capital invested in China reached U.S. $188.5 billion and bilateral trade in 2019 was U.S. $150 billion, about 15% of Taiwan’s GDP.
    • By the same token, China is capable of inflicting acute economic pain on Taiwan through coercive policies if the island is seen to drift towards an independent status.

    Prospects for peaceful reunification

    • Taiwan has two major political parties.
    • The KMT, dominated by the descendants of the mainlanders remains committed to a one-China policy.
    • The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), on the other hand, is more representative of the indigenous population of the island, and favours independence.
    • Faced with aggressive threats from China and lack of international support, the demand for independence has been muted.
    • Ever since the DPP under Tsai Ing-wen won the presidential elections in 2016, China has resorted to a series of hostile actions against the island, which include economic pressures and military threats.
    • One important implication of this development is that prospects for peaceful unification have diminished.
    • Sentiment in Taiwan in favour of independent status has increased.

    Role of the US

    • While the U.S. does not support a declaration of independence by Taiwan, it has gradually reversed the policy of avoiding official-level engagements with the Taiwan government
    • The first breach occurred during the Donald Trump presidency.
    • The Joe Biden officials have continued this policy.
    • The Taiwanese representative in Washington was invited to attend the presidential inauguration ceremony (Biden), again a first since 1979.
    • Reports have now emerged that U.S. defence personnel have been, unannounced, training with their Taiwanese counterparts for sometime.

    Implications for Quad and India

    • The recent crystallisation of the Quad, of which India is a part, and the announcement of the AUKUS, with Australia being graduated to a power with nuclear-powered submarines, may act as a deterrent against Chinese moves on Taiwan.
    • But they may equally propel China to advance the unification agenda before the balance changes against it in the Indo-Pacific.
    • For these reasons, Taiwan is emerging as a potential trigger point for a clash of arms between the U.S. and China.

    Consider the question “What are the implications of Taiwan issue and the US involvement in it for India?”

    Conclusion

    In pursuing its Indo-Pacific strategy, India would do well to keep these possible scenarios in mind.

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