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GS Paper: Population & Associated Issues

  • National Population Register

    The office of the Registrar General of India (RGI) has said the schedule or the questionnaire of the National Population Register (NPR) is being finalised.

    The National Population Register (NPR)

    • The NPR is a database containing a list of all usual residents of the country. Its objective is to have a comprehensive identity database of people residing in the country.
    • It is generated through house-to-house enumeration during the “house-listing” phase of the census, which is held once in 10 years.
    • The last census was in 2011, and the next will be done in 2021 (and will be conducted through a mobile phone application).
    • A usual resident for the purposes of NPR is a person who has resided in a place for six months or more and intends to reside there for another six months or more

    How it is different from the Census?

    • The census involves a detailed questionnaire and there were 29 items to be filled up in the 2011 census.
    • They aimed at eliciting the particulars of every person, including age, sex, marital status, occupation, birthplace, mother tongue, religion, whether they belonged to any SC or ST etc.
    • On the other hand, NPR collects basic demographic data and biometric particulars.
    • Once the basic details of the head of the family are taken by the enumerator, an acknowledgement slip will be issued. This slip may be required for enrolment in NPR, whenever that process begins.
    • The details will be recorded in every local (village or ward), sub-district (tehsil or taluk), district and state level.
    • Once the details are recorded, there will be a population register at each of these levels. Together, they constitute the National Population Register.

    What is the legal basis for the NPR?

    • While the census is legally backed by the Census Act, 1948, the NPR is a mechanism outlined in a set of rules framed under the Citizenship Act, 1955.
    • Section 14A was inserted in the Citizenship Act, 1955, in 2004, providing for the compulsory registration of every citizen of India and the issue of a “national identity card” to him or her.
    • It also said the Central government may maintain a “National Register of Indian Citizens”.
    • The Registrar General India shall act as the “National Registration Authority” (and will function as the Registrar General of Citizen Registration).
    • Incidentally, the Registrar General is also the country’s Census Commissioner.

    Attempt this question

    Q.Enumerate the major points of the ‘Assam accord (1985)’. How is it associated with the present issue of the National Register of Citizens?

  • Sex Ratio in India

    A 2018 report on “vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System” shows crucial data of sex ratios of major states in India.

    Sex Ratio

    • Sex ratio at birth is the number of females born per thousand males.
    • Sex ratios are among the most basic of demographic parameters and provide an indication of both the relative survival of females and males and the future breeding potential of a population.

    Try this PYQ

    Q.Consider the following specific stages of demographic transition associated with economic development:

    1. Low birth rate with a low death rate
    2. High birth rate with a high death rate
    3. High birth rate with a low death rate

    Select the correct answer using the codes given below:

    (a) 1, 2 and 3 only

    (b) 3, 2 and 1 only

    (c) 2, 3 and 1 only

    (d) 3, 2 and 1 only

    Statewise data

    • Arunachal Pradesh recorded 1,084 females born per thousand males, followed by Nagaland (965) Mizoram (964), Kerala (963) and Karnataka (957).
    • The worst was reported in Manipur (757), Lakshadweep (839) and Daman & Diu (877), Punjab (896) and Gujarat (896).
    • Delhi recorded a sex ratio of 929, Haryana 914 and Jammu and Kashmir 952.
    • The number of registered births increased to 2.33 crore in 2018 from 2.21 crore registered births the previous year.

  • UN Report on Gender Gap in Labour Market

    Gender equality across the world remains a far-fetched goal and no country has achieved it so far, according to the 2020 edition of the United Nations report on the state of gender equality in the world.

    Try this question for mains:

    Q.Discuss how marriage age and women’s health are linked with each other?

    About the Report

    • The report titled “World’s Women: Trends and Statistics” was released by the UN-DESA.
    • The report provided a reality-check on the global status of women 25 years since the world adopted the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action.
    • It presented the global state of gender equality in six critical areas: Population and families; health; education; economic empowerment and asset ownership; power and decision-making; and violence against women and the girl child as well as the impact of COVID-19.

    Highlights on status of women

    • The gender gap in the labour market, for example, has not budged a bit since 1995.
    • While the status of women has improved with regard to education, early marriage, childbearing and maternal mortality, the progress has stagnated in other areas.

    Participation in the labour market

    • The gender gap in the labour market has remained as it was since 1995: The gap of 27 percentage points has barely changed since then, the report showed.
    • Only 47 per cent women of working age participated in the labour market, compared to around 74 per cent men, according to the report.
    • The largest gender gap in labour force participation was observed in the prime working age (25-54).
    • This gap has remained unaddressed since 1995 and was at 32 percentage points as of 2020, according to the report. It was 31 percentage points in 1995.
    • In India, the ratio of female-to-male labour force participation rate was 29.80 in 2019 as against the desired ratio of 50 per cent.

    Working for free

    • The data in the interactive UN report showed how women remained under the burden of unpaid domestic and care work.
    • On an average day, women globally spent about three times (4.2 hours) as many hours on unpaid domestic and care work as men (1.7 hours).
    • Unpaid domestic work includes activities related to the maintenance of the household, including food preparation, upkeep of the home, caring for pets etc.

    Family responsibilities

    • Family responsibilities and unequal distribution of unpaid domestic and care workers were among the primary reasons for women not joining the labour force.
    • Their participation depended on their liabilities and responsibilities in their household, noted UN. It found that women living alone were more likely to be in the labour market.
    • On an average, 82 per cent women of prime working-age living alone were in the labour market, compared to 64 per cent women living with a partner and 48 per cent living with a partner and children.
    • Their participation rates in the economy were found to improve in the latter part of their lives after their responsibilities reduced — when their children grew older.

  • Analysing the trends in India’s population growth

    The article analyses some trends in India’s population growth as found in the Sample Registration System Statistical Report (2018).

    Context

    • There have been some encouraging trends in India’s population in the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report (2018) and global population projections made by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), US.

     Declining TFR

    • SRS report estimated the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the number of children a mother would have at the current pattern of fertility during her lifetime, as 2.2 in the year 2018.
    •  It is estimated that replacement TFR of 2.1 would soon be, if not already, reached for India as a whole.
    • As fertility declines, so does the population growth rate.
    • This report estimated the natural annual population growth rate to be 1.38 per cent in 2018.
    • A comparison of 2011 and 2018 SRS statistical reports shows that TFR declined from 2.4 to 2.2 during this period.
    • Fertility declined in all major states.
    • In 2011, 10 states had a fertility rate below the replacement rate. This increased to 14 states.
    • The annual natural population growth rate also declined from 1.47 to 1.38 per cent during this period.

    So, when will India’s population stabilise

    • Duet to population momentum effect, a result of more people entering the reproductive age group of 15-49 years due to the past high-level of fertility, population stabilisation will take some time.
    • The UN Population Division has estimated that India’s population would possibly peak at 161 crore around 2061.
    •  Recently, IHME estimated that it will peak at 160 crore in 2048.
    • Some of this momentum effect can be mitigated if young people delay childbearing and space their children.

    Factors affecting fertility rates

    • Fertility largely depends upon social setting and programme strength.
    • Programme strength is indicated by the unmet need for contraception, which has several components.
    •  The National Family Health Survey (2015-16) provides us estimates for the unmet need at 12.9 per cent and contraceptive prevalence of 53.5 per cent for India.
    • Female education is a key indicator for social setting, higher the female education level, lower the fertility.
    • As the literacy of women in the reproductive age group is improving rapidly, we can be sanguine about continued fertility reduction.

    Declining sex ratio at birth: Cause for concerrn

    •  The SRS reports show that sex ratio at birth in India, measured as the number of females per 1,000 males, declined marginally from 906 in 2011 to 899 in 2018.
    • Biologically normal sex ratio at birth is 950 females to 1,000 males. 
    • The UNFPA State of World Population 2020 estimated the sex ratio at birth in India as 910, lower than all the countries in the world except China.
    • This is a cause for concern for following 2 reasons:
    • 1) This adverse ratio results in a gross imbalance in the number of men and women.
    • 2) Impact on marriage systems as well as other harms to women.
    • Increasing female education and economic prosperity help to improve the ratio.
    • It is hoped that a balanced sex ratio at birth could be realised over time, although this does not seem to be happening during the period 2011-18. 

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, there is an urgent need to reach young people both for reproductive health education and services as well as to cultivate gender equity norms. This could reduce the effect of population momentum and accelerate progress towards reaching a more normal sex-ratio at birth. India’s population future depends on it.

    Back2Basics: Total Fertility Rate and Replacement rate

    • Total fertility rate (TFR) in simple terms refers to total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman in her life time if she were subject to the prevailing rate of age-specific fertility in the population.
    • TFR of about 2.1 children per woman is called Replacement-level fertility (UN, Population Division).
    • This value represents the average number of children a woman would need to have to reproduce herself by bearing a daughter who survives to childbearing age.
    • If replacement level fertility is sustained over a sufficiently long period, each generation will exactly replace itself without any need for the country to balance the population by international migration.

  • What is World Food Programme?

    The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the World Food Programme (WFP) for feeding millions of people from Yemen to North Korea, with the coronavirus pandemic seen pushing millions more into hunger.

    Tap here to read more about Nobel Prizes here at:

    Nobel and other Prizes

    World Food Programme

    • The WFP is the food-assistance branch of the United Nations and the world’s largest humanitarian organization focused on hunger and food security.
    • Founded in 1961, it is headquartered in Rome and has offices in 80 countries.
    • In addition to emergency food aid, WFP focuses on relief and rehabilitation, development aid, and special operations, such as making food systems more resilient against climate change and political instability.
    • It is an executive member of the United Nations Development Group, which collectively aims to fulfil the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), and has prioritized achieving SDG 2 for “zero hunger” by 2030.

  • OBC categorization: findings, progress by a panel so far

    While the ongoing legal debate on sub-categorisation of Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes for reservations is undergoing, a Commission has been examining sub-categorisation of Other Backward Classes (OBC) for almost three years now.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q.The quota policy for OBCs needs an urgent revisit. Comment.

    What is the sub-categorisation of OBCs?

    • OBCs are granted 27% reservation in jobs and education under the central government.
    • The question of sub-categorisation arises out of the perception that only a few affluent communities among the over 2,600 included in the Central List of OBCs have secured a major part of this 27% reservation.
    • The argument for sub-categorisation — or creating categories within OBCs for reservation — is that it would ensure “equitable distribution” of representation among all OBC communities.

    Who is examining sub-categorisation?

    • The Commission to Examine Sub-categorisation of Other Backward Classes took charge on October 11, 2017.
    • It is headed by retired Delhi High Court Chief Justice G Rohini.
    • Initially constituted with tenure of 12 weeks ending January 3, 2018, it was granted an extension recently.

    What are its terms of references?

    It was originally set up with three terms of reference:

    1. To examine the extent of inequitable distribution of benefits of reservation among the castes or communities included in the broad category of OBCs with reference to such classes included in the Central List;
    2. To work out the mechanism, criteria, norms and parameters in a scientific approach for sub-categorisation within such OBCs;
    3. To take up the exercise of identifying the respective castes or communities or sub-castes or synonyms in the Central List of OBCs and classifying them into their respective sub-categories.

    A fourth was added on January 22, 2020, when the Cabinet granted it an extension:

    1. To study the various entries in the Central List of OBCs and recommend correction of any repetitions, ambiguities, inconsistencies and errors of spelling or transcription.

    What progress has it made so far?

    • In its letter to the government on July 30, 2019, the Commission wrote that it is ready with the draft report. This could have huge political consequences and is likely to face a judicial review.
    • The current tenure of the Commission ends on January 31, 2021.
    • Its budget is being drawn from the National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC) which was given constitutional status by the government in 2018.

    What progress has it made so far?

    • The Commission is ready with the draft report. This could have huge political consequences and is likely to face a judicial review.
    • The current tenure of the Commission ends on January 31, 2021.
    • Its budget is being drawn from the National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC) which was given constitutional status by the government in 2018.

    How do these data compare with OBCs’ share in the population?

    • A hurdle for the Commission has been the absence of data for the population of various communities to compare with their representation in jobs and admissions.
    • Sources said the data of Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC) were not considered reliable.
    • The Commission has requested for an appropriate Budget provision for a proposed all-India survey for an estimate of the caste-wise population of OBCs.

  • NCRB data on Accidental Deaths and Suicides

    The cases of suicide and the number of accidental deaths registered an increase across the country last year compared to 2018, according to the annual National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) report.

    Do you know?

    NCRB also released data on hate crimes, fake news, and anti-national activities etc.

    (1) Data on Suicides

    • Statewise data: The maximum cases of mass/family suicides were reported from Tamil Nadu (16), followed by Andhra Pradesh (14), Kerala (11) and Punjab (9) and Rajasthan (7).
    • Unemployed person: Suicides by unemployed persons amounting to 14% were in Kerala (1,963), followed by 10.8% in Maharashtra, 9.8% in Tamil Nadu, 9.2% in Karnataka and 6.1% in Odisha. Of the 97,613 male suicides, the maximum were daily wage earners (29,092), followed by self-employed persons (14,319) and the unemployed (11,599).
    • Farmer’s suicide: Majority of victims engaged in the farming sector were reported in Maharashtra (38.2% of 10,281), Karnataka (19.4%), AP (10.0%), MP (5.3%) and Chhattisgarh & Telangana (4.9% each),” said the report.
    • Rural-Urban: The suicide rate in cities (13.9%) was higher compared to the all-India average. Family problems (other than marriage related problems)’ (32.4%); ‘marriage related problems’ (5.5%); and ‘illness’ (17.1%) accounted for 55% of the total suicides.
    • Gender-specific cases: The overall male-female ratio was 70.2:29.8. Nearly 68.4% of males were married and the ratio was 62.5% for female victims. While 12.6% of the total victims were illiterate, 16.3% had studied up to primary level, 19.6% up to middle level and 23.3% up to Matriculation level. Only 3.7% were graduates and above.
    • Defence personnel: In the Central Armed Police Forces, a total of 36 personnel died by suicide, 38.9% were due to “family problems”.

    (2) Data on Accidents

    • Accidental deaths in the country increased by 2.3%. Compared to 4,11,824 in 2018, the figure stood at 4,21,104 last year.
    • The rate (per lakh population) increased from 31.1 to 31.5. The maximum casualties of 30.9% were reported in the 30-45 years age group, followed by 26% in the 18-30 years’ age group.
    • The highest rate was reported from Puducherry (72.8), followed by Chhattisgarh (68.6), Maharashtra (57.4), Haryana (54.3), Goa (51.5) and Madhya Pradesh (51.4).
    • Maharashtra reported the highest deaths (70,329), amounting to nearly one-sixth of the total figure. UP, the most populous state, accounted for 9.6% cases, followed by MP (10.1%).
    • Maximum deaths (85.4%) were in road accidents. While 38% of the victims were two-wheeler riders, 14.6% involved trucks.
    • Dangerous/careless driving or overtaking contributed to 25.7% road accidents, claiming 42,557 lives and leaving more than 1 lakh people injured.

    (3) Deaths due to disasters

    • A total of 8,145 deaths were due to the causes attributable to forces of nature, including 35.3% due to lightning, 15.6% by heat/sunstroke and 11.6% deaths in floods.
    • Maximum deaths (400) due to lightning was reported each from Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, followed by Jharkhand (334) and Uttar Pradesh (321).

    Back2Basics: NCRB

    • The NCRB is an Indian government agency responsible for collecting and analyzing crime data as defined by the Indian Penal Code (IPC) and Special and Local Laws (SLL).
    • It is headquartered in New Delhi and is part of the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA).
    • It was set-up in 1986 to function as a repository of information on crime and criminals so as to assist the investigators in linking crime to the perpetrators.
    • It was set up based on the recommendation of the Task-force 1985 and National Police Commission 1977.

  • PVTGS in Andaman

    Five members of the Great Andamanese tribe, a Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group (PVTGs) have tested positive for COVID-19.

    Try this PYQ:

    Q. Consider the following statements about Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups (PVTGs) in India:

    1. PVTGs reside in 18 States and one Union Territory.
    2. A stagnant or declining population is one of the criteria for determining PVTG status.
    3. There are 95 PVTGs officially notified in the country so far.
    4. Irular and Konda Reddi tribes are included in the list of PVTGs.

    Which of the statements given above are correct?(CSP 2019)

    (a) 1, 2 and 3

    (b) 2, 3 and 4

    (c) 1, 2 and 4

    (d) 1, 3 and 4

    PVTGs in Andaman

    • Great Andamanese is one of five PVTGs that reside in Andamans archipelago.
    • The Great Andamanese speak Jeru dialect among themselves and their number stands at 51 as per the last study carried out by Andaman Adim Janjati Vikas Samiti in 2012.
    • The five PVTGS residing in Andamans are Great Andamanese, Jarwas, Onges, Shompens and North Sentinelese.

    What are PVTGs?

    • There are certain tribal communities who have declining or stagnant population, low level of literacy, pre-agricultural level of technology and are economically backward.
    • They generally inhabit remote localities having poor infrastructure and administrative support.
    • These groups are among the most vulnerable section of our society as they are few in numbers, have not attained any significant level of social and economic development.
    • 75 such groups have been identified and categorized as Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups (PVTGs).

  • Census 2021 and the long-pending reforms

    • In all likelihood, the February 2021 Census will have to be rescheduled to ensure comparability with earlier censuses.
    • This will also affect the National Sample Surveys and others that use the census as the sampling frame.
    • The delay can, however, be used to introduce much-needed reforms to this gigantic exercise whose roots go back to the late 19th century.

    Try this question for mains:

    Q.The Census of India needs a basic overhaul beyond its procedural digitization. Critically analyse.

    Background: Census of India

    • The decennial Census of India has been conducted 15 times, as of 2011.
    • While it has been undertaken every 10 years, beginning in 1872 under British Viceroy Lord Mayo, the first complete census was taken in 1881.
    • Post-1949, it has been conducted by the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India under the Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India.
    • All the censuses since 1951 were conducted under the 1948 Census of India Act.
    • The last census was held in 2011, whilst the next will be held in 2021.

    Census 2021

    • The Census 2021 will be conducted in 18 languages out of the 22 scheduled languages (under 8th schedule) and English, while Census 2011 was in 16 of the 22 scheduled languages declared at that time.
    • It also will introduce a code directory to streamline the process
    • The option of “Other” under the gender category will be changed to “Third Gender”.
    • There were roughly 5 lakh people under “other” category in 2011.
    • For the first time in the 140 year history of the census in India, data is proposed to be collected through a mobile app by enumerators and they will receive an additional payment as an incentive.
    • The Census data would be available by the year 2024-25 as the entire process would be conducted digitally and data crunching would be quicker.

    Issues with the Census

    (1) Data quality issues

    • The past four decades have seen a decline in the quality of data and growing delays in its release despite technological innovations.
    • The use of census data in delimitation and federal redistribution has been questioned on grounds of poor quality, while the Covid-19 pandemic revealed the obsolete and poor quality of data on internal migration.

    (2) No major reforms

    • The legal foundation of the census has remained largely unchanged since newly independent India enacted permanent census legislation in 1948.
    • Despite sustained problems, the census has not seen any major reform after 1994 when both the Census Act, 1948 and Census Rules, 1990 were amended.

    (3) Old methods and questionnaire

    • The methodological core – extended de facto (synchronous) canvasser-based enumeration – too has remained intact even though the length and layout of schedules changed quite a bit.
    • The Household Schedule, for instance, grew with the footprint of the state, from 14 questions in 1951 to 29 questions in 2011.

    (4) Workforce issues

    • Data collection has not kept pace with improvements in data processing technology due to the lack of motivated and adequately trained enumerators.
    • Given the high salaries of school teachers, the modest honorarium paid for census work does not cover the opportunity cost of conducting the door-to-door enumeration.

    Understand the ‘purpose’ of the census

    Reforms should begin with the design of schedules based on a clear understanding of two essential functions of the census:

    (a) Resource allocations

    • First, census facilitates the rule-based distribution of power and resources through constitutionally mandated redistribution of taxes, delimitation of electoral constituencies and affirmative action policies.
    • It is also used in routine policy-making across tiers of government.

    (b) Population projections

    • Second, census serves as the sampling frame for surveys and is also the basis of population projections.
    • Other routine policies require distribution of the headcount by households, marital status, age, sex, literacy, migrant status, and mother tongue.
    • Put together, these variables are sufficient for choosing representative samples for surveys.

    What can be done?

    1.Cut the questions

    • Nearly half of the ‘Houselisting and Housing Schedule’ of the census is devoted to questions on household amenities and assets.
    • These questions can be dropped because the information can be more appropriately collected through sample surveys and administrative statistics.

    Why put fewer questions?

    • Cutting down the length of unwieldy schedules has several advantages.
    • First, it will improve data quality by reducing the workload of enumerators.
    • Second, it will also free up senior census officials and help revive the earlier tradition of producing detailed administrative and other reports crucial for understanding the context of data.
    • Third, shorter schedules will seem less invasive and assure respondents uncomfortable with sharing too many details.
    • Fourth, it will cut down processing time and help in reducing delays in the release of data.

    2.Dealing with data manipulation

    • There is poor accounting of migrants that distorts estimates of urbanisation as well as the inter-state distribution of the population.
    • There exists grassroots manipulation of data-driven by political and economic considerations.
    • There is a need to demystify census operations and build trust in the impartiality of the exercise, better scrutiny of electoral records and welfare schemes to weed out bogus beneficiaries.

    Conclusion

    • These reforms are essential to ensure that the census exercise is able to fulfil its constitutional, policy and statistical obligations and also clear the ground for debates on the future of census in the digital era.

  • Making sense of population growth of India

    The article analyses and explains the declining trend in India’s total fertility rate. The aspirational revolution in the parents explains such decline. 

    What the projections say

    • A new study was published in The Lancet, and prepared by the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
    • It argues that while India is destined to be the largest country in the world, its population will peak by mid-century.
    • And as the 21st century closes, its ultimate population will be far smaller than anyone could have anticipated, about 1.09 billion instead of approximately 1.35 billion today.
    • It could even be as low as 724 million, the study projects.
    • Until 2050, the IHME projections are almost identical to widely-used United Nations projections.
    •  It is only in the second half of the century that the two projections diverge with the UN predicting a population of 1.45 billion by 2100, and the IHME, 1.09 billion.

    Present trends in India’s fertility rate

    •  In the 1950s, India’s Total fertility rate (TFR) was nearly six children per woman; today it is 2.2.
    •  Between 1992 and 2015, it had fallen by 35% from 3.4 to 2.2.
    • It is even below the replacement rate in 18 States and Union Territories.

    What explains the trends

    • One might attribute it to the success of the family planning programme.
    • But family planning has long lost its primacy in the Indian policy discourse.
    • Punitive policies include denial of maternity leave for third and subsequent births, limiting benefits of maternity schemes and ineligibility to contest in local body elections for individuals with large families.
    • However, these policies are mostly ignored in practice.

    Aspirational revolution

    •  It seems highly probable that the socioeconomic transformation of India since the 1990s has played an important role.
    • Over the years parents began to rethink their family-building strategies.
    • Smaller families when compared with a bigger family with same income level, invest more money in their children by sending them to private schools and coaching classes.
    • It is not aspirations for self but that for children that seems to drive fertility decline.

    Consider the question “Examine the factors responsible for the declining trends in the total fertility rate for India. What are its implications for country?”

    Conclusion

    Demographic data suggest that the aspirational revolution is already under way. What we need to hasten the fertility decline is to ensure that the health and family welfare system is up to this challenge and provides contraception and sexual and reproductive health services that allow individuals to have only as many children as they want.