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GS Paper: GS3-02.Inclusive growth and issues therein

  • Explained: How remunerative is farming in India?

    The government’s push to reform India’s agriculture sector has divided opinions and triggered a debate about the state of Indian agriculture.

    Try this PYQ:

    Q.In view of the declining average size of land holdings in India which has made agriculture nonviable for a majority of farmers, should contract farming and land leasing be promoted in agriculture? Critically evaluate the pros and cons. (UPSC 2015)

    Features of Indian Agriculture

    In the context of this debate, two long-standing characteristics of Indian agriculture are noteworthy:

    1. Indian agriculture is highly unremunerative
    2. It has been heavily regulated by the government and protected from the free play of market forces

    Why are the new legislation introduced?

    • According to the government, the new Bills passed by Parliament attempt to make it easier for farmers to sell to and produce for the private sector.
    • The hope is that liberalizing the sector and allowing greater play for market forces will make Indian agriculture more efficient and more remunerative for the farmers.
    • In this context, it is important to understand some of the basics of Indian agriculture.

    Basics of Indian agriculture

    (1) Workforce engaged

    • At the time of Independence, about 70% of India’s workforce (a little less than 100 million) was employed in the agriculture sector.
    • Even at that time, agriculture and allied activities accounted for around 54% of India’s national income.
    • Over the years, agriculture’s contribution to national output declined sharply. As of 2019-20, it was less than 17% (in gross value added terms).
    • And yet, the proportion of Indians engaged in agriculture has fallen from 70% to just 55% (Chart 1).
    • As the Committee on Doubling Farmers’ Income (2017) observes, “the dependence of the rural workforce on agriculture for employment has not declined in proportion to the falling contribution of agriculture to GDP”.

    (2) Land holdings

    • While the number of people dependent on agriculture has been burgeoning over the years, the average size of landholdings has become reduced sharply — even to the extent of being unviable for efficient production.
    • Data shows that 86% of all landholdings in India are small (between 1 and 2 hectares) and marginal (less than 1 hectare — roughly half a football field).
    • The average size among marginal holdings is just 0.37 ha which hardly provides enough income to stay above the poverty line.

    (3) Debts

    • The combined result of several such inefficiencies is that most Indian farmers are heavily indebted (Chart 2).
    • The data shows that 40% of the 24 lakh households that operate on landholdings smaller than 0.01 ha are indebted. The average amount is Rs 31,000.
    • A good reason why such a high proportion of farmers is so indebted is that Indian agriculture — for the most part — is unremunerative.
    • Chart 3 provides the monthly income estimates for an agriculture household in four very different states as well as the all-India number.
    • Some of the most populous states like Bihar, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh have very low levels of income and very high proportions of indebtedness.

    (4) Buying & selling

    • Another way of understanding the plight of the farmers relative to the rest of the economy is to look at the Terms of Trade between farmers and non-farmers.
    • Terms of Trade is the ratio between the prices paid by the farmers for their inputs and the prices received by the farmers for their output.
    • As such, 100 is the benchmark. If the ToT is less than 100, it means farmers are worse off.
    • As Chart 4 shows, ToT rapidly improved between 2004-05 and 2010-11 to breach the 100-mark but since then it has worsened for farmers.

    (5) MSP

    • A key variable in the debate is the role of minimum support prices. Many protesters fear governments will roll back the system of MSPs.
    • MSPs provide “guaranteed prices” and an “assured market” to farmers, and save them from price fluctuations. This is crucial because most farmers are not adequately informed.
    • But although MSPs are announced for around 23 crops, actual procurement happens for very few crops such as wheat and rice.
    • Moreover, the percentage of procurement varies sharply across states (Chart 5). As a result, actual market prices — what the farmers get — are often below MSPs.

  • Differential impact of COVID and the lockdown

    Though pandemic has been called as the great leveller, closer look at the impact of Covid on the marginalised section indicate otherwise. This article examines the impact of pandemic with respect to responsible factors.

    The marginalised at risk

    • Preliminary data and early indirect evidence from several parts of the world indicate that the incidence of the disease is not class-neutral.
    • Poorer and economically vulnerable populations are more likely to contract the virus as well as to die from it.
    • Economic consequences of the current pandemic are likely to be most concentrated among the low wage earners.
    • Disaggregated data on COVID-19 incidence and mortality are not available for India.
    • Thus, we cannot comment on whether certain caste groups are more vulnerable to the virus than others.

    Cast factor: Let’s look into CMIE survey

    • India’s lockdown was among the most stringent.
    • The first month of the severe lockdown, April 2020, witnessed a sharp rise in unemployment.
    • Let’s examine shifts in employment and unemployment rates using data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE)’s Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS) database.
    • That the proportion of employed upper castes dropped from 39% to 32% between December 2019 and April 2020, a fall of seven percentage points.
    • The corresponding fall for Scheduled Castes (SCs) was from 44% to 24%, i.e. a fall of 20 percentage points.
    • Other Backward Classes and Scheduled Tribes (STs) the fall was from 42% to 34%, 40% to 26% and 48% to 33%.
    • Thus, the fall in employment for SCs and STs was far greater in magnitude than that for upper castes.

    Education factor

    • The global evidence suggests that job losses associated with COVID-19 are much more concentrated among individuals with low levels of education.
    • Those with more than 12 years of education, were much less likely to be unemployed in April 2020 than those with less than 12 years of education.
    •  Data from the India Human Development Survey for 2011-12 (IHDS-II) show that 51% of SC households have adult women who have zero years of education, i.e. are illiterate, and 27% have an illiterate adult male member.
    •  Thus, in the face of current school closures, parents of SC children would be much less equipped to assist their children with any form of home learning.

    Access to technology and other factors

    • The proportion of households with access to the Internet is 20% and 10% for UC and SC households, respectively.
    •  Only 49% of SCs have bank savings, as compared to 62% of Upper Caste households.
    • Differential access to information technology, as well as disparities in the ability to invest in technology, will be critical in shaping access to online education.

    Consider the question “Examine the impact of Covid on the vulnerable section of society. Suggest the measures to mitigate the impact.”

    Conclusion

    Early impacts of the pandemic-induced lockdown indicate that the resultant economic distress is exacerbating pre-existing structures of disadvantage based on social identity, and investments in education and health.

  • National Strategy for Financial Education

    The National Strategy for Financial Education (NSFE): 2020-2025 documents has been released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

    Try this question for mains:

    Q.What is the role of Financial Education in ensuring financial inclusion in India?

    What is the Strategy?

    • The NSFE for the period 2020-2025, the second one after the 2013-18 NSFE, has been prepared by the National Centre for Financial Education (NCFE) in consultation with all the Financial Sector Regulators (RBI, SEBI, IRDAI and PFRDA.
    • Other stakeholders include (DFIs, SROs, IBA, and NPCI) under the aegis of the Technical Group on Financial Inclusion and Financial Literacy (TGFIFL) under the Chairmanship of Deputy Governor, RBI.

    Key recommendations

    • The strategy recommends the adoption of a multi-stakeholder approach to achieve financial well-being of Indians.
    • The document has recommended a ‘5 C’ approach for dissemination of financial education in the country. These include an emphasis on:
    1. development of relevant content in the curriculum in schools, colleges and training establishments,
    2. developing capacity among the intermediaries involved in providing financial services,
    3. leveraging on the positive effect of the community-led model for financial literacy through appropriate communication strategy, and
    4. enhancing collaboration among various stakeholders

    Other objectives

    • The strategic objective is also towards improving usage of digital financial services in a safe and secure manner; as well as bringing awareness about rights, duties and avenues for grievance redressal.
    • To achieve the vision of creating a financially aware and empowered India, certain strategic objectives have been laid down including:
    1. Inculcating financial literacy concepts among various sections of the population through financial education to make it an important life skill
    2. Encouraging active savings behaviour and developing credit discipline

  • We must aspire for nurturing economy

    The sight of thousands of migrant workers walking thousands of kms back home after lockdown has been the watershed moment for the collective conscience of our country. This made us think about the present economic model and policies we have been adopting. So, the answer to the problems created by the present model lies in building “nurturing economy”. What is nurturing economy? Read to know…

    Broadly, we can summarise the impact of pandemic as-

    • Unemployment is shooting up.
    • Supply chains of food and essentials have been disrupted.
    • Dark clouds of economic recession are on the horizon.

    Invisible cost of pandemic

    • The visible cost of the pandemic in terms of the lives lost are being counted by the day.
    • But the invisible cost of hunger and impoverishment of the most vulnerable sections is yet to be effectively addressed.
    • Vulnerable section- our workers, the poor and the migrants, particularly women, are at receiving end of these invisible cost.

    Health of economy before pandemic

    • The pandemic came at one of the worst possible times.
    • India’s economy has been in deep trouble since 2016.
    • In 2019-20, even before the pandemic happened, our GDP growth had dropped to 4.2 per cent, lowest growth seen in the last 11 years.
    • Even the oil prices dropped at their historic low.
    • Non-food bank credit is a good indicator of overall economic robustness.
    • By December 2019, the growth of non-food bank credit had dropped to below 7 per cent. ( lowest in the last 50 years.)

    What happened to economy after the pandemic?

    • After the pandemic arrived, matters, of course, got worse.
    • In March, $16 billion of foreign capital exited the country, which is an all-time record for India.
    • India’s unemployment rate shot up to a record high of 23.8 per cent in April.
    • In the same month, Indian exports dropped by 60 per cent.
    • This was one of the biggest drops seen in any emerging market economy in the world.
    • There is a genuine risk that this year our growth will drop to an all-time low, beating the record plunge of 1979-80.

    So, the pandemic has forced us to think about the building a nurturing economy, one in which Gandhiji’s Talisman is followed in word and spirit, one in which John Rawls ideas are implemented.

    So, What building a nurturing economy involves?

    • Our economic and political policies must not be ends in themselves.
    • Instead, these policies should involve instruments for building a society that is secular, inclusive and nurturing.
    • It should be a society where people of all religions, caste, race and gender feel wanted and at home.
    • Environment sustainability and focus on green economy is also part of nurturing economy.
    • We should strive to create a society that respects knowledge, science and technology, and culture.

    Threefold crisis emerging out of our exploitative behaviours

    • The outcome of our exploitative behaviour is a threefold crisis which describes India’s current predicament.
    • 1) Rising poverty and unemployment despite abundance.
    • 2) Rising intolerance and violence.
    • 3) Environmental catastrophe.

    Consider the question “Pandemic and the predicament of migrant labours has highlighted the lack of inclusive growth in our economy. And we must look for the solution to such shortcomings in our approach. In light of this, suggest the changes that our economy must embrace to ensure inclusive growth.”

    Conclusion

    Our ambition should not be to make India the richest nation in the world. India should be an example of an equitable society, where people are not abandoned without income and work, where no one feels the insecurity of being a minority, and of being discriminated against.

  • A plan to revive the broken economy

    The article suggests ways to revive the economy while keeping in mind the livelihood issues of the vulnerable section of society. Urgent concern should be addressed by the food and cash transfer, after that for livelihood in the rural area MGNREGA can be of great help. In the urban area, a  scheme based on the lines of MGNREGA is suggested. In the end, some ways to increase revenue are suggested.

    Food and cash transfers

    • Providing every household with ₹7,000 per month for a period of three months and every individual with 10 kg of free foodgrains per month for a period of six months is likely to cost around 3% of our GDP (assuming 20% voluntary dropout).
    • This could be financed immediately through larger borrowing by the Centre from the Reserve Bank of India.
    • The Centre should also clear outstanding Goods and Services Tax compensation.
    • Food and cash transfer are doable for the following reasons.
    • First, foodgrains are plentiful, as the Food Corporation of India had 77 million tonnes, and rabi procurement could add 40 million tonnes.
    • Second, because of the lockdown restrictions multiplier effect would be less. (so, fewer concerns about inflation)
    • Third, cash transfers in many spheres will only enable current demand to continue (such as payment of house rent to continue occupancy) and not create any fresh demand.
    • Fourth, when greater normalcy finally allows demand held back during lockdown to the surface, output could also expand because of resumed economic activity.
    • Finally, putting money in the hands of the poor is the best stimulus to an economic revival, as it creates effective demand and in local markets.
    • Hence, an immediate programme of food and cash transfers must command the highest priority.

    Need for changes in MGNREGA

    • Millions of migrant workers have gone back home, and are unlikely to return to towns in the foreseeable future.
    • Employment has to be provided to them where they are, for which the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) must be expanded greatly and revamped with wage arrears paid immediately.
    • The 100-day limit per household has to go.
    • Work has to be provided on demand without any limit to all adults.
    • And permissible work must include not just agricultural and construction work, but work in rural enterprises and in care activities too.
    • The revamped MGNREGS could cover wage bills of rural enterprises started by panchayats, along with those of existing rural enterprises, until they can stand on their own feet.
    • This can be an alternative strategy of development, recalling the successful experience of China’s Township and Village Enterprises (TVEs).
    • Public banks could provide credit to such panchayat-owned enterprises and also assume a nurturing role vis-à-vis them.
    • Pandemic highlighted unsustainability of the earlier globalisation.
    • Which means that growth in India in the coming days will have to be sustained by the home market.
    • Since the most important determinant of growth of the home market is agricultural growth, this must be urgently boosted.
    • The MGNREGS can be used for this, paying wages for land development and farm work for small and medium farmers.
    • Also the government support through remunerative procurement prices, subsidised institutional credit, other input subsidies, and redistribution of unused land with plantations is possible.
    • Agricultural growth in turn can promote rural enterprises, both by creating a demand for their products and by providing inputs for them to process.
    • Both these activities would generate substantial rural employment.

    Focus on urban area

    • In urban areas, it is absolutely essential to revive the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).
    • Simultaneously, the vast numbers of workers who have stayed on in towns have to be provided with employment and income after our proposed cash transfers run out.
    • The best way to overcome both problems would be to introduce an Urban Employment Guarantee Programme, to serve diverse groups of the urban unemployed, including the educated unemployed.
    • Urban local bodies must take charge of this programme and would need to be revamped for this purpose.
    • “Permissible” work under this programme should include, for the present, work in the MSMEs.
    • This would ensure labour supply for the MSMEs and also cover their wage bills at the central government’s expense until they re-acquire robustness.
    • It should imaginatively also include care work, including of old, disabled and ailing persons, educational activities, and ensuring public services in slums.

    The CARE economy: Public health, education, employment

    • The pandemic has underscored the extreme importance of a public health-care system, and the folly of privatisation of essential services.
    • The post-pandemic period must see significant increases in public expenditure on education and health, especially primary and secondary health including for the urban and rural poor.
    • The “care economy” provides immense scope for increasing employment.
    • Vacancies in public employment, especially in such activities, must be immediately filled.
    • Anganwadi and Accredited Social Health Activists/workers who provide essential services to the population, including during this pandemic, are paid a pittance and treated with extreme unfairness.
    • We must improve their status, treat them as regular government employees and give them proper remuneration and associated benefits, and greatly expand their coverage in settlements of the urban poor.
    • These could easily come within the total package announced by the Prime Minister, which could be financed by printing money.
    • But in the medium term, public revenues must be increased.
    • This is not because there is a shortage of real resources which, therefore, has to be taken from other existing uses through taxation.
    • Rather, since much-unutilised capacity exists in the economy, the shortage is not of real resources; the government has to just get command over them.

    Suggestions to increase public revenue

    • A combination of wealth and inheritance taxation and getting multinational companies to pay the same effective rate as local companies through a system of unitary taxation will garner substantial public revenue.
    • They will also reduce wealth and income inequalities which have become horrendous.
    • A 2% wealth tax on the top 1% of the population, together with a 33% inheritance tax on the wealth they bequeath every year to their progeny, could finance an increase in government expenditure to the tune of 10% of GDP.
    • It would be argued that this might cause large financial outflows, which the country can ill-afford.
    • Contrarily, even foreign capital is more likely to be attracted to a growing economy than one in sharp decline because of a lack of stimulus.
    • Also, a fresh issue of special drawing rights by the International Monetary Fund which India has surprisingly opposed along with the United States would provide additional external resources.
    • These additional resources, would suffice to finance the institution of five universal, justiciable, fundamental economic rights:1) the right to food, 2)the right to employment, 3)the right to free public health care, 4)the right to free public education and 5)the right to a living old-age pension and disability benefits.

    Consider the question, “The economic disruption caused by the pandemic threatens the progress made on the front of inclusive growth. Suggest the measures to ensure the livelihood of the economically vulnerable section of the society in the aftermath of the pandemic in rural and urban areas.”

    Conclusion

    The broken economy must be rebuilt in ways to ensure a life of dignity to the most disadvantaged citizen. The ways suggested here shows how to achieve that.

  • [pib] CHAMPIONS Portal for Indian MSMEs

    In a major initiative, Union Ministry of MSME has launched CHAMPIONS portal for assisting Indian MSMEs march into the big league as National and Global Champions.

    MSME sector has been hit badly by COVID. Initiatives like CHAMPIONS portal are crucial for this sector.

    CHAMPIONS Portal

    • ‘CHAMPIONS’ is a technology-driven Control Room-Cum-Management Information System.
    • The CHAMPIONS is an acronym for Creation and Harmonious Application of Modern Processes for Increasing the Output and National Strength
    • As the name suggests, the portal is basically for making the smaller units big by solving their grievances, encouraging, supporting, helping and handholding.
    • It is a technology-packed control room-cum-management information system.

    Three basic objectives of the CHAMPIONS

    1) How to help the MSMEs in this difficult situation in terms of finance, raw materials, labour, permissions, etc.

    2) How to help them capture new opportunities like manufacturing of medical accessories and products like PPEs, masks, etc.

    3) How to identify the sparks, i.e., the bright MSMEs who can not only withstand but can also become national and international champions.

    Technology imbibed in the portal

    • In addition to ICT tools including telephone, internet and video conference, the system is enabled by Artificial Intelligence, Data Analytics and Machine Learning.
    • It is also fully integrated on a real-time basis with GOI’s main grievances portal CPGRAMS and MSME Ministry’s own other web-based mechanisms.
    • The entire ICT architecture is created in house with the help of NIC in no cost. Similarly, the physical infrastructure is created in one of the ministry’s dumping rooms in record time.

     A hub and spoke model of network

    • As part of the system, a network of control rooms is created in a Hub & Spoke Model.
    • The Hub is situated in New Delhi in the Secretary MSME’s office.
    • The spokes will be in the States in various offices and institutions of Ministry.
    • As of now, 66 state-level control rooms are created as part of the system.

  • What makes MSMEs, most vulnerable to Covid-19 disruptions?

    • The Covid-19 pandemic has left its impact on all sectors of the economy but nowhere is the hurt as much as the Medium, Small and Micro Enterprises (MSMEs) of India.
    • All anecdotal evidence available, such as the hundreds of thousands of stranded migrant workers across the country, suggests that MSMEs have been the worst casualty of lockdown.
    • A closer look at the anatomy of the MSME sector explains why MSMEs are so vulnerable to economic stress.

    Possible mains question:

    Q. Discuss how the nationwide lockdown to control the coronavirus outbreak has led to the resurfacing of inherent bottlenecks in India’s MSME Sector.

    What are MSMEs? How are they defined?

    • Formally, MSMEs are defined in terms of investment in plant and machinery.
    • But this criterion for the definition was long criticised because credible and precise details of investments were not easily available by authorities.
    • That is why in February 2018, the Union Cabinet decided to change the criterion to “annual turnover”, which was more in line with the imposition of GST.
    • According to the proposed definition, which is yet to be formally accepted, a micro-enterprise will be one with an annual turnover less than Rs 5 crore; a small enterprise with turnover between Rs 5 crore and Rs 75 crore; and a medium enterprise with turnover less than Rs 250 crore.

    How many MSMEs does India have, who owns them, and where are they situated?

    • According to the latest available (2018-19) Annual Report of Department of MSMEs, there are 6.34 crore MSMEs in the country.
    • Around 51 per cent of these are situated in rural India.
    • Together, they employ a little over 11 crore people (Chart 3) but 55 per cent of the employment happens in the urban MSMEs.
    • These numbers suggest that, on average, less than two people are employed per MSME.
    • At one level that gives a picture of how small these really are. But a breakup of all MSMEs into micro, small and medium categories is even more revealing.

    Distributions of MSMEs

    • In terms of geographical distribution, seven Indian states alone account for 50 per cent of all MSMEs.
    • These are Uttar Pradesh (14%), West Bengal (14%), Tamil Nadu (8%), Maharashtra (8%), Karnataka (6%), Bihar (5%) and Andhra Pradesh (5%).
    • This breakup provides a sense of where the pain of the MSME crisis would be felt the most.
    • Chart 4 shows, 99.5 per cent of all MSMEs fall in the micro category.
    • The medium and small enterprises — that is, the remaining 0.5% of all MSMEs — employ the remaining 5 crore-odd employees.
    • While micro-enterprises are equally distributed over rural and urban India, small and medium ones are predominantly in urban India.

    What kind of problems do MSMEs in India face?

    • No/Low Formal registration: To begin with, most of them are not registered anywhere. A big reason for this is that they are just too small. But, as it is clear in a time of crisis, it also constrains a government’s ability to help them.
    • Away from Tax norms: GST has its threshold and most micro enterprises do not qualify. Being out of the formal network, they do not have to maintain accounts, pay taxes or adhere to regulatory norms etc. This brings down their costs.
    • Lack of Financial buffer: According to a 2018 report by the International Finance Corporation (part of the World Bank), the formal banking system supplies less than one-third (or about Rs 11 lakh crore) of the credit MSME credit need that it can potentially fund (Chart 5). They don’t have the buffers of the bigger firms or access to cheap capital to help them tide over this period.

    • Bad credit history: The other big issue plaguing the sector is the delays in payments to MSMEs — be it from their buyers or things likes GST refunds etc. A key reason why banks dither from extending loans to MSMEs is the high ratio of bad loans (Chart 6).

    How has Covid-19 made things worse?

    • The MSMEs were already struggling — in terms of declining revenues and capacity utilization — in the lead-up to the Covid-19 crisis.
    • The total lockdown has raised a question mark on workers payment primarily because these firms mostly transact on cash. That explains the job losses.
    • According to a recent survey he did for “small and medium” firms in manufacturing, only 7% said they will be able to survive for more than three months with their cash in hand if their business remains closed.
    • A big hurdle to restarting now is the lack of labour availability.

    What can be done?

    • The RBI has been trying to pump money into the MSME sector but given the structural constraints, it has had limited impact.
    • There are no easy answers for the MSMEs’ sufferings.
    • However, the government can provide tax relief (GST and corporate tax), give swifter refunds, and provide liquidity to rural India (say, through PM-Kisan) to boost demand for MSME products.

    What about credit guarantees?

    • Loans to MSMEs are mostly given against property (as collateral) — because often there isn’t a robust cash flow analysis available — but in times of crisis, property values fall and that inhibits the extension of new loans.
    • A credit guarantee by the government helps as it assures the bank that its loan will be repaid by the government in case the MSME falters.
    • To the extent such defaults happen, credit guarantees are shown as a departmental expense in the Budget.

    Urgent attention required

    • Governments across the world have announced various measures ranging from wage support to direct subsidies to help these businesses tide over these difficult times.
    • But, in India, more than a month after the national lockdown was announced; there is still no blueprint of how the government intends to support these businesses during this period.

    Way forward

    • There is a strong case for urgent government intervention — the costs of intervening early on will be much less than the price of delayed action.
    • To begin with, all dues owned by governments and public sector undertakings to MSMEs can be immediately cleared. This will help ease their immediate cash flow woes.
    • Second, with banks turning risk-averse, credit flow to MSMEs is likely to be depressed as solvency concerns will dominate.
    • In such a situation, the government could step in. It could set up a credit guarantee fund that backstops loans to MSMEs.

  • Pandemic calls for deep-set forces and scientific concepts of development for building a modern economy

    The article discusses the recovery strategies for India. There are three examples from the past from which we can draw the lessons. 1) Recovery of the US and Europe after the World Wars 2) Recovery of Japan after World War 3) China’s stimulus package after the 2008 financial crisis. In the case of the first two, climate change was not the factor. But in case of the 2008 financial package, China emphasised green technologies and was benefited from it. Drawing on China’s example, the article suggests three pronged strategy for India’s recovery taking into account the climate change factor.

    Decisions on recovery and lessons from the past recovery frameworks

    • The decisions and directions taken by states from hereon will be judged ruthlessly by historical lenses.
    • Though India has managed the pandemic with relative precision, we cannot deny an impending emergence of a new socio-economic order, where the recovery is going to be hard-earned.
    • This is not the first time the world has faced an economic crisis and won’t be the last.
    • Can a country like India, which might be one of the few countries to come out of the crisis without a recession, take lessons from past recovery frameworks?
    • Recovery frameworks: Even though the very nature of the current health crisis is much different from the past crises like World Wars and their repercussions in Europe, the US and Japan.
    • But the evidence shows that ambitious recovery plans made these nation-states more prosperous than the pre-crisis period.

    Recovery lessons form the western world after the World Wars

    • Hurt by the two World Wars and a Great Depression in between, the western world demonstrated unprecedented recovery to attain post-war full employment and stabilized income levels.
    • Almost thirty years between World War II and 1973 recession (“Glorious Thirties“), the countries like the US, Canada, Germany, and France experienced a golden period of growth.
    • In the US, the labour productivity grew at 2.82% per year which meant that productivity doubled every 25 years thanks to better machines driven by electricity and internal combustion engines, better education and massive capital investment.
    • The world wars accelerated technological innovations in energy, manufacturing and vastly improved the labour pool.

    Recovery of Japan after World War

    • Severely hit by the war, Japan’s miraculous growth from 1950 to 1990 is another example of a state using great adversity to propel itself towards prosperity.
    • Post-war liberalization was augmented by multilateral trade agreements and export promotion schemes.
    • That propelled the Japanese economy to dizzying heights making it the second-largest economy at the time.
    • Apart from fiscal stimuli, immense efforts went into strengthening human capital by promoting R&D and skilling activities.
    • Suddenly, Japan becomes one of the most ingenious economies churning out one innovative product after another in fields like electronics.
    • In addition, pioneering quality systems made Japan the first Asian economy to become a developed state.

    Recoveries based on values and technological innovations

    • All the above recoveries are rooted in modern values like create, explore and meet challenges.
    • While large investments garner a lot of attention, role played by massive skilling and resultant technological innovation should not be forgotten.
    • Skilling and innovation enabled creating goods and services of the future.

    Climate change and recovery

    • These successful recovery plans did not have the responsibility to plan for an impending climate change hanging over our head by a thread.
    • The times were different; the needs were different: more importantly, the evidences were not as irrefutable as now.
    • A 2018 study titled ‘Earth’s future’, estimated that India will lose 10% of its GDP annually in a 3°C scenario and lose 14% of its GDP annually in a 4°C scenario in the long term.
    • And the time to act is ‘now’, as consequences of inaction are existential.

    China’s stimulus after the 2008 crisis with a focus on green technologies

    • Fast-forwarding to the 21st century, the 2008–09 Chinese economic stimulus plan pumped in $586 billion to manage the crisis.
    • With serious money of $586 billion going into upgrading selected industrial sectors to firm up its presence in the global value chains (GVC).
    • Interestingly, a sizeable portion went into green technologies.
    • China understood that if the world is provided with affordable green technologies at scale, the states will incentivize the increasingly eco-aware consumers to buy these products.
    • Catalyzed by plans like “Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles and “Thousand Talents Program (TTP)” and generous state incentives, China became a global leader in e-vehicles.
    • Chinese-made buses started roaming famous cities across the world, the roads traditionally dominated by European makers.
    • Powered by generous capital infusion, China also attained leadership in solar panels, batteries and associated supply chains in a short period setting up a sustainable growth module.
    • A lesson in fiscal prudence: The 2008–09 Chinese economic stimulus plan is also criticized for raising the Chinese debt levels, hence giving us lessons in fiscal prudence.

    Should India opt for a green recovery module?

    • Can a developing India afford to allocate a significant portion of its precious resources towards a green recovery module?
    • Unbridled economic growth and sustainable development are not mutually exclusive.
    • In fact, we might not have a choice, given the movement of global supply chain towards green technologies and tightening screws around strict sustainability standards.
    • European Commission, for instance, has announced that every euro into the recovery plan will be linked to green recovery.

    A three-pronged approach is suggested for recovery

    1. Investment and incentives for green economic activities in the selected sectors

    • First, ambitious investment and incentives in catalyzing futuristic green economic activities in selected sectors.
    • Developing, manufacturing and deploying low carbon products could help India create more jobs: the kind of jobs that will survive into the future.
    • With Giga scale battery and solar manufacturing plans already underway, there is a huge demand globally for sustainable supply chain of even traditional sectors such as textiles.
    • India could choose 5 sectors where it can fill the sustainability vacuum helping the sub-continent emerge as a new global leader in those sectors.
    • India has the potential to scale-up currently ready technologies like e-VTOLs (intra-city electric aerial mobility), which will upend the global mobility modules, increasing the profitability of growing Indian e-mobility supply chain.
    • Companies like Hyundai who have already announced manufacturing of e-VTOLs should be attracted to India.
    • Crisis situations often provide policy windows, where all the stakeholders are empowered, and historically time-consuming decisions are fast-forwarded.
    • If India manages to efficiently remove regulatory bottlenecks and creates standards for e-VTOLs before anyone else, it will take a huge chunk of the global future mobility pie.
    • Similar initiatives for other strategic sectors could be carried out.

    2. Resolve regulatory and on-ground legacy issues

    • Aggressively resolving on-ground legacy issues and challenges.
    • Shackles around entrepreneurship from labour laws to clearances regimes should be broken one by one.
    • It could be done by leveraging the cooperative and competitive federalism evidenced through the crisis under the able leadership of the Hon’ble Prime Minister.
    • And the current policy window might be an ideal opportunity for Indian democracy to deliver.

    3. Focus on skilling people

    • Third, a big-ticket omni-channel skilling architecture should be instituted.
    • Universities should be empowered and enabled to come up with new-age educational programmes to serve futuristic industries.
    • A special focus should be given to develop enough trainers to train the millions of Indian youth getting ready for the labour market every year, in new-age skills.
    • Adequate online-offline training courses must be designed in a way that it does not affect daily wages drastically.
    • The big-ticket vocational programmes, specially directed at the informal sector which constitute more than 90% of the total workforce, has the potential to employ displaced and poor labourers.
    • A strategic skill committee may be empowered to dynamically identify key skills and tweak the training modules.
    • This can be integrated with the Ministry of Environment’s Green Skill Development Program to train 10 million youth by 2030.

    The issues discussed here are important for achieving sustainable and inclusive growth. A question based on this theme was asked by UPSC in 2019.

    Consider the question “It is argued that the strategy of inclusive growth is intended to meet the objectives of inclusiveness and sustainability together. Comment on this statement.”

    Conclusion

    The current pandemic calls for deep-set forces and scientific concepts of development for building a dynamic and modern economy. Green growth is one such concept that will add a new dimension to the economic dynamism of the sub-continent helping it serve the aspirations of its citizens.

  • Growth and the farmer

    Context

    Last month, Montek Singh Ahluwalia’s book, Backstage: The Story Behind India’s High Growth Years, was released. Which tilt in favour of consumer in food policy reduces incentives for farmers, makes it difficult to unlock resources for growth.

    What is covered in the book

    • Besides some very interesting episodes pertaining to author’s personal and professional life, the book is full of useful insights into policy debates and their complexities.
    • At many places, it provides evidence of the impact of these policies.
    • This can be extremely useful as we try to rejuvenate the country’s sluggish economy and abolish poverty.

    Inclusive growth and agriculture

    • Growth in agriculture must for inclusive growth: During the UPA period, from 2004-05 to 2013-14, it was believed that inclusive growth is not feasible unless agriculture grows at about 4 per cent per year while the overall economy grows at about 8 per cent annually.
    • The reason was simple: More than half of the working force at that time was engaged in agriculture and much of their income was derived from agriculture.
      • But many political heavyweights, did not believe that agri-growth could reduce poverty fast enough.
    • Main instrument of agricultural strategy: The main instrument of agricultural strategy was the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY), which gave more leverage to states to allocate resources within agriculture-related schemes.

    What was the impact of strategy?

    • Agri-growth increased: The agricultural strategy, along with other infrastructure investments in rural areas, had a beneficial impact on agri-growth.
      • Agri-growth increased from 2.9 per cent during the Vajpayee period (1998-99 to 2003-04) to 3.1 per cent during the UPA-1 period (2004-05 to 2008-09) and further to 4.3 per cent during UPA-2 (2009-10 to 2013-14).
      • The agri-GDP growth during UPA-2 was driven not as much by RKVY as it was by high agri-prices in the wake of the global economic crisis of 2007-08.
    • Impact on poverty reduction: Agri-GDP growth had a significant impact on poverty reduction, whichever way it was measured — the Lakdawala poverty line or Tendulkar poverty line, which is higher.
      • At what rate poverty reduced? The rate of decline in poverty (headcount ratio), about 0.8 per cent per year during 1993-94 to 2004-05, accelerated to 2.1 per cent per year, and for the first time, the absolute number of the poor declined by a whopping 138 million during 2004-05 to 2013-14.
      • Interestingly, this holds even on the basis of the international poverty line of $1.9 per capita per day (on 2011 purchasing power parity, PPP, also see graphs).

    Right to food and debate around it

    • Scepticism over the success of agriculture support to food subsidy: Instead of celebrating this success of the growth strategy in alleviation of poverty, several NGOs and even Congress stalwarts remained sceptical.
      • They advocated food subsidy under the Right to Food Campaign.
      • National Advisory Council (NAC) came up with a proposal to subsidise 90 per cent of people by giving them rice and wheat at Rs 3/kg and Rs 2/kg.

    What were the arguments put forward by Montek Singh Ahluwalia?

    • Burden on exchequer: He tried to convince them that this was likely to create an unsustainable burden on the exchequer.
    • India could end up importing food: He also argued that India could end up importing grains to the tune of 13-15 million tonnes per year.
    • Cap the population coverage at 40%: He favoured a cap at 40 per cent of the population to be covered under the Food Security Act as the poverty ratio (HCR) in 2011-12 was 22 per cent.
    • Smart card to beneficiaries: He also favoured providing smart cards to the beneficiaries so that they could opt for buying more nutritious food rather than just relying on rice and wheat.
    • Chance for diversification of agriculture: Smart card with beneficiaries would have also allowed diversification of agriculture and augmented farmers’ incomes.
      • But he could not win over the NAC — although the coverage for food subsidy was reduced from the original proposal of 90 per cent to 67 per cent of the population.
    • Against the ban on agri. export: Montek also argued against export bans on agricultural commodities as these impacted farmers’ incomes adversely.
      • Government siding with consumers: But the government of the day often ended up taking the consumer’s side, as that was considered pro-poor.
      • This reduced the incentives for farmers, who then had to be compensated by increasing input subsidies.

    What are the result of this strategy adopted by the government?

    • Negative PSE: No wonder, years later, when we estimated the producer support estimates (PSEs), as per the OECD methodology — used by countries that produce more than 70 per cent of the global agri-output — we found a deeply negative PSE.
      • What negative PSE indicates? This indicates implicit taxation of agriculture through trade and marketing policies, even when one has accounted for large input subsidies going to farmers (see graph on PSE).
    • Consumer bias in the system: Today, the food subsidy is the biggest item in the Union budget’s agri-food space. In the current budget, it is provisioned at Rs 1,15,570 crore.
      • Borrowing by FCI not factored in: But this factor hides more than it reveals. Lately, the government has been asking the Food Corporation of India (FCI) to borrow from myriad sources, and not fully funding the food subsidy, which should logically be a budgetary item.
      • The outstanding dues of the FCI are more than the provisioned subsidy, and if one adds these dues to the budgeted food subsidy, the effective amount of food subsidy comes to Rs 3,57,688 crore.
      • This displays the consumer bias in the system.

    Conclusion

    • Restrict the population coverage of food subsidy: The Economic Survey of 2019-20 makes a case for restricting food subsidy to 20 per cent of the population — the headcount poverty in 2015 as per the World Bank’s $1.9/per capita per day (PPP) definition was only 13.4 per cent.
      • For the others, the issue prices of rice and wheat need to be linked to at least 50 per cent of the procurement price or, even better, 50 per cent of the FCI’s economic cost.
    • Unless we make progress on this front, it is difficult to unlock resources for the growth of agriculture, which slumped from 4.3 per cent during UPA-2 to 3.1 per cent during Modi 1.0.

  • Towards a new world order

    Context

    Social inequalities and the grim problems of stark and continuing poverty are at the epicentre of the new world.

    The ugly face of capitalism and growing inequalities

    • The concentration of the health: The latest Oxfam Report presented at Davos points out that 2,153 billionaires have more wealth than 4.6 billion people.
    • Rising poverty: The emergence of billionaires and oligarchs in different parts of the world coincides with increased poverty among the already poor people, especially children.
    • Concept of stakeholder’s capitalism: These realities make observers question the tenability of stakeholder capitalism as a concept.
    • Faults in the capitalism on display in 2008: The ugliest face of this capitalism was visible during the 2007-2008 economic crisis, first in the U.S. and thereafter across the European Union.
      • At that time, it appeared as if the global economy was on the verge of collapse.

    Intensification of energy use and sustainability

    • The relation between growth and energy: One of the chief characteristics of economic development is the intensification of energy use.
      • There is an unprecedented concentration of high energy density in all economic development strategies.
    • Use of non-renewable sources: The bulk of the energy continues to be generated from non-renewable sources.
    • Developing world capturing energy-generating sources: The developed world’s, and China’s, central objective is to capture energy-generating resources from across continents and put them to use to push GDP growth to greater heights.
      • In the process, sustainability is becoming a casualty.
    • Higher waste generation: The higher the use of energy, the larger the amount of waste generated. Entropy, like time, is always unidirectional, it only goes forward.

    Disposal of e-waste

    • High energy consumption and disposal of waste: Egregious consumption of energy by the developed world has been accompanied by the disposal of residual products (‘e-waste’) on the shores of many African and Asian countries.
    • Impact on the developing world: As a result of the disposal, the poor in the developing world are, unwittingly, drawn and exposed to toxic, hazardous materials like lead, cadmium and arsenic.
      • Hence, the ‘globalisation’ phenomenon has turned out to be nothing other than the exploitation of the developing world, with most countries being treated as a source of cheap labour and critical raw material.

    Unfairness involved in the Globalisation

    • Increasing consumption in the developing world: Countries in the developed world, and China, are ferociously using up finite raw materials without care or concern for the welfare of present and future generations.
    • Bright and the dark side of the development: Certainly, there has been significant technological progress which has brought about a revolution in the fields of healthcare and communications, but there is also a dark side to this.
    • System loaded in the favour of the rich: High expenses and Intellectual Property Rights load the system further in favour of the rich.
      • Pernicious system of carbon credit: To demonstrate how unfair the system is, one can look at the pernicious plan to set up a carbon credit system.
      • Under this, countries with high energy consumption trends can simply offset their consumption patterns by purchasing carbon credits, the unutilised carbon footprint, from poor developing countries.

    Understanding the Nordic Economic Model

    • ‘Nordic Economic Model’: It pertains to the remarkable achievements of the Scandinavian countries comprising Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, and allied territories. They also have-
      • Large public sector enterprises.
      • Extensive and generous universal welfare systems.
      • High levels of taxation.
      • And considerable state involvement in promoting and upholding welfare states.
      • Among the happiest countries: UN reports also indicate that the Nordic countries are the happiest countries in the world. The U.S., in contrast, is in 19th place.
      • The total population of the Nordic countries is estimated at almost 27 million people.
      • Among the richest countries: These nations are among the richest in the world when measured in terms of GDP per capita.

    Enlightened Global Order

    • Taking the Nordic model as a template, there are some ingredients that could be part of a new ‘enlightened global order’.
    • What does the Global Order include? These should include-
      • Effective welfare safety nets for all.
      • Corruption-free governance.
      • A fundamental right to tuition-free education including higher education.
      • And a fundamental right to good medical care.
      • Shutting of tax havens.
      • Tax structure: In Nordic countries, personal and corporate income tax rates are very high, especially on the very rich. If a just, new world order is to arise, taxes everywhere should go up.
    • Holding companies responsible: When it comes to the corporate sector, there are some new perspectives.
      • Changing the parameters of profit: In traditional business accounting, ‘bottom line’ refers to the financial year’s profit or loss earned or incurred by the company on pure financial parameters.
      • The four ‘Ps’: Following vigorous debates, a new format has emerged under which a company’s performance is measured through four ‘Ps’.
      • The first is ‘P’ for ‘profit’.
      • The second ‘P’ is for people — how the company’s actions impact not only employees but society as a whole.
      • The third ‘P’ is for the planet — are the company’s actions and plans sensitive to the environment?
      • The fourth ‘P’ is for purpose, which means the companies and individuals must develop a larger purpose than ‘business as usual’. They must ask: what is the larger purpose of the company, apart from generating profits?
      • Using performance in terms of four ‘P’s: Using big data and text analytics, a company’s performance can be measured in terms of all the four ‘P’s and a corporate entity can be thus held accountable. Market capitalisation need not be the only way to measure the value of a company.

    Conclusion

    Much work is yet to be done to uplift the global economic order, but the important point is that new tools are now emerging. What is required is a global consensus and the will to make the planet more sustainable, so that all individuals can live with justice and equality, ensuring that not a single child is hungry or seriously unwell because of poverty or lack of affordable medical help.