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GS Paper: Indian Economy

  • Need for overhaul of India’s economic performance measurement framework

    Context

    It is then apparent that GDP growth matters to the average Indian only if it can generate good quality jobs and incomes for them.

    Background

    • Nobel laureate Simon Kuznets, who conceived of GDP as a measure of economic performance, never intended it to be the single-minded economic pursuit for a nation that it has now become, and warned repeatedly that it is not a measure of societal well-being.
    • Irrefutably, GDP is an elegant and simple metric that is a good indicator of economic progress which can be compared across nations.
    • But a compulsive chase for GDP growth at all costs can be counter-productive, since it is not a holistic but a misleading measure.
    • The excessive obsession over GDP growth by policymakers and politicians can be unhealthy and dangerous in a democracy.
    • If growth in GDP does not translate into equivalent economic prosperity for the average person, then in a one person-one vote democracy, exuberance over high GDP growth can backfire and trigger a backlash among the general public.
    • Global phenomenon: Sri Lanka’s mass uprising and people’s revolution can partly be explained through this prism of the structural break between headline GDP growth and economic prosperity for the people.
    • The U.S. today produces fewer new jobs for every percentage point of GDP growth than it did in the 1990s.
    • China produces one-third the number of new jobs today than it did in the 1990s for every percentage of its GDP growth.

    Employment intensity of economic growth

    • Data of ‘employment in public and organised private sectors’ published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows that in the decade between 1980 and 1990, every one percentage point of GDP growth (nominal) generated roughly two lakh new jobs in the formal sector.
    • In the subsequent decade from 1990 to 2000, every one percentage point of GDP growth yielded roughly one lakh new formal sector jobs, half of the previous decade.
    • In the next decade between 2000 and 2010, one percentage point of GDP growth generated only 52,000 new jobs.
    • The RBI stopped publishing this data from 2011-12.
    • In essence, one percentage of GDP growth today yields less than one-fourth the number of good quality jobs that it did in the 1980s.
    • It is amply clear that the correlation between formal sector jobs and GDP growth has weakened considerably.

    Implications of decline in GDP growth’s contribution to job creation

    • Irrelevant as a political measure: GDP growth may be an important economic measure, but it is becoming increasingly irrelevant as a political measure, since it impacts only a select few and not the vast majority.
    • Indicates changed nature of economic development: This divorce of GDP growth and jobs is both a reflection of the changed nature of contemporary economic development with emphasis on capital-driven efficiency at the cost of labour and GDP being an inadequate measure.
    • Political backlash: The perils of the obsession over GDP growth will be felt by politicians who have to answer voters on lack of jobs and incomes despite robust headline growth.
    • Voter disenchantment over the economy not working for them is already rife in many democracies across the world that have catalysed agitations and social disharmony.
    • Electoral outcomes in favour of extreme positions in mature democracies such as the U.S., the U.K., France and Germany in the last decade may partly be a reflection of voters’ sense of deception over economic gains.

    Way forward

    • It is time for India’s political leaders to not be drawn into argument over GDP growth every quarter and instead clamour for an overhaul of India’s economic performance measurement framework to reflect what truly matters to the common person.

    Conclusion

    GDP growth has turned into a misleading and dangerous indicator that portrays false economic promises, betrays people’s aspirations and hides deeper social problems.

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  • Recent Supreme Court judgment on IBC may weaken insolvency regime

    Context

    In the recent judgement the Supreme Court held that the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) cannot admit an insolvency application filed by a financial creditor merely because a financial debt exists and the corporate debtor has defaulted in its repayment.

    Why the point of trigger is important in insolvency law

    • A critical element for any corporate insolvency law is the point of trigger.
    • The law must clearly provide the grounds on which an insolvency application against a corporate debtor should be admitted.
    • If there is any confusion at this stage, precious time could be wasted in litigation.
    • That would cause value destruction of the distressed business.
    • On the other hand, if the law is clear and litigation can be minimised, the distressed business could be resolved faster.
    • Its value could be preserved.
    • And all stakeholders collectively would benefit.
    • Evidently, objective legal criteria for admission are critical for an effective corporate insolvency law.

    Determining insolvency and implications of the SC ruling

    • The balance-sheet test is one method for determining insolvency at the point of trigger.
    • This test, however, is vulnerable to the quality of accounting standards.
    • That’s why the Bankruptcy Law Reforms Committee did not favour this test in the Indian context.
    • Instead, it recommended that a filing creditor must only provide a record of the liability (debt), and evidence of default on payments by the corporate debtor.
    • This twin-test was expected to provide a clear and objective trigger for insolvency resolution. 
    • The Supreme Court’s latest ruling is likely to radically alter these expectations.

    Implications of the Supreme Court ruling

    • Resisting the admission by debtor: Now due to the Supreme Court ruling, even if the NCLT is satisfied that a financial debt exists and that the corporate debtor has defaulted, it may not admit the case for resolution if the corporate debtor resists admission on any other grounds.
    • Corporate debtors are likely to use this precedent to the fullest to resist admission into IBC.
    • Risk of value destruction due to delay: The likely outcome would be more litigation and delay at the admission stage, enhancing the risks of value destruction in the underlying distressed business.

    Conclusion

    In all fairness, the Supreme Court has been extremely pragmatic in its interpretation and application of the IBC. Even in the recent ruling, the court has rightly cautioned that the NCLT should not exercise its discretionary power in an arbitrary or capricious manner. Yet, this decision may have opened a Pandora’s box. Policymakers would be well-advised to take note before history starts repeating itself.

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  • IMF flags Recession risk

    Surging inflation and sharp slowdowns in the United States and China prompted the IMF to cut its outlook for the global economy this year and next, while warning that the situation could get much worse.

    By one common definition, the major global economies are on the cusp of a recession.

    What is Recession?

    • A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that lasts for months or even years.
    • Experts declare a recession when a nation’s economy experiences negative GDP, rising levels of unemployment, falling retail sales, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing for an extended period of time.
    • Recessions are considered an unavoidable part of the business cycle—or the regular cadence of expansion and contraction that occurs in a nation’s economy.

    What causes Recessions?

    These phenomena are some of the main drivers of a recession:

    • A sudden economic shock: An economic shock is a surprise problem that creates serious financial damage. The coronavirus outbreak, which shut down economies worldwide, is a more recent example of a sudden economic shock.
    • Excessive debt: When individuals or businesses take on too much debt, the cost of servicing the debt can grow to the point where they can’t pay their bills. Growing debt defaults and bankruptcies then capsize the economy.
    • Asset bubbles: When investing decisions are driven by emotion, bad economic outcomes aren’t far behind. Investors can become too optimistic during a strong economy.
    • Too much inflation: Inflation is the steady, upward trend in prices over time. Inflation isn’t a bad thing per se, but excessive inflation is a dangerous phenomenon. Central banks control inflation by raising interest rates, and higher interest rates depress economic activity.
    • Too much deflation: While runaway inflation can create a recession, deflation can be even worse. Deflation is when prices decline over time, which causes wages to contract, which further depresses prices. When a deflationary feedback loop gets out of hand, people and business stop spending, which undermines the economy.
    • Technological change: New inventions increase productivity and help the economy over the long term, but there can be short-term periods of adjustment to technological breakthroughs. In the 19th century, there were waves of labour-saving technological improvements.

    What’s the difference between Recession and Depression?

    • Recessions and depressions have similar causes, but the overall impact of a depression is much, much worse.
    • There are greater job losses, higher unemployment and steeper declines in GDP.
    • Most of all, a depression lasts longer—years, not months—and it takes more time for the economy to recover.
    • Economists do not have a set definition or fixed measurements to show what counts as a depression. Suffice to say, all the impacts of a depression are deeper and last longer.
    • In the past century, the US has faced just one depression: The Great Depression.

    The Great Depression

    • The Great Depression started in 1929 and lasted through 1933, although the economy didn’t really recover until World War II, nearly a decade later.
    • During the Great Depression, unemployment rose to 25% and the GDP fell by 30%.
    • It was the most unprecedented economic collapse in modern US history.
    • By way of comparison, the Great Recession was the worst recession since the Great Depression.
    • During the Great Recession, unemployment peaked around 10% and the recession officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, about a year and a half.
    • Some economists fear that the coronavirus recession could morph into a depression, depending how long it lasts.

    How long do recessions last?

    • Gulf War Recession (July 1990 to March 1991): At the start of the 1990s, the U.S. went through a short, eight-month recession, partly caused by spiking oil prices during the First Gulf War.
    • The Great Recession (2008-2009): As mentioned, the Great Recession was caused in part by a bubble in the real estate market.
    • Covid-19 Recession: The most recent recession began in February 2020 and lasted only two months, making it the shortest US recession in history.

    Can we predict a recession?

    Given that economic forecasting is uncertain, predicting future recessions is far from easy. However, the following warning signs can give you more time to figure out how to prepare for a recession before it happens:

    • An inverted yield curve: The yield curve is a graph that plots the market value—or the yield—of a range. When long-term yields are lower than short-term yields, it shows that investors are worried about a recession. This phenomenon is known as a yield curve inversion, and it has predicted past recessions.
    • Declines in consumer confidence: Consumer spending is the main driver of the US economy. If surveys show a sustained drop in consumer confidence, it could be a sign of impending trouble for the economy.
    • Drop in the Leading Economic Index (LEI): Published monthly by the Conference Board, the LEI strives to predict future economic trends. It looks at factors like applications for unemployment insurance, new orders for manufacturing and stock market performance.
    • Sudden stock market declines: A large, sudden decline in stock markets could be a sign of a recession coming on, since investors sell off parts and sometimes all of their holdings in anticipation of an economic slowdown.
    • Rising unemployment: It goes without saying that if people are losing their jobs, it’s a bad sign for the economy.

    How does a recession affect individuals?

    • We may lose your job during a recession, as unemployment levels rise. It becomes much harder to find a job replacement since more people are out of work.
    • People who keep their jobs may see cuts to pay and benefits, and struggle to negotiate future pay raises.
    • Investments in stocks, bonds, real estate and other assets can lose money in a recession, reducing your savings and upsetting your plans for retirement.
    • Business owners make fewer sales during a recession, and may even be forced into bankruptcy.
    • With more people unable to pay their bills during a recession, lenders tighten standards for mortgages, car loans, and other types of financing.

     

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  • Reforms needed in the next stage of GST

    Context

    India has completed five years under the GST regime.

    How GST has performed so far

    • Before the GST, there were multiplicity of the Centre and state levies that masked the actual incidence of tax on products, the debilitating effects of the entry tax and the uncertainty of tax rates.
    • Today, in contrast, we have a single tax across the country combined with a stability in rates and a common technology platform in the form of a GSTN.
    • Record number of registrants: The ease of payments has improved over time with the technical glitches having been slowly sorted out, leading to a record number of GST registrants – increasing from 1.08 crore in April 2018 to 1.36 crore in 2022.
    •  The revenue gains have been significant.
    • If we factor in the three-percentage point decline in the incidence of GST duty from 14.8 to 11.8 per cent as suggested by the RBI, the actual proportion in 2021-2022 would have been 7.4 per cent of the GDP (according to a recent article by Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman).

    What were the changes made to ensure the stricter compliance

    • The above improvement can be traced to stricter compliance flowing from three factors.
    • 1] Input credit only after supplier uploads invoice: Denial of input credit to the buyer without the supplier uploading the invoice.
    • 2] The introduction of e-invoicing.
    • 3] Third the introduction of e-waybills for transporters for value exceeding Rs 50,000 per consignment.
    • Greater coordination between CBIC and CBDT: Another factor is greater coordination between the Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBIC) and Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) in compliance verification.

    Changes needed

    • 1] Provisions for unregistered GST suppliers: The micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) sector has been affected by the GST reforms because the large units have been reluctant to buy from them in the absence of input duty credit.
    • An important measure here would be to amend the law to provide that all units buying from unregistered GST suppliers would have to pay duty on a reverse charge basis.
    • 2] Rate rationalisation: While the revenue gains have come through better compliance, the next surge in GST revenues will have to come from an increase in the average incidence of GST duties.
    • This will require a combination of measures — phasing out of exemptions, raising of the merit rate from the present level of 5 per cent and merging the 12 per cent rate with the standard rate, whether to 16 per cent or 18 per cent.
    • 3] Inclusion of fuels and real estate: Including natural gas/ATF under GST should be considered.
    • Further reforms in the factor markets — land, real estate and energy — would require their inclusion in the GST.
    • This is essential because while the economic reforms of the 1990s restructured the product market, the factor market reforms were incomplete.
    • 4] Creation of federal institution: We need to create another institution in the form of a GST state secretariat that can bring together senior officers from the Centre and states in an institutional forum registered under the Society Act.
    • This forum could also provide a common point of contact for trade and industry to redress the grievances on non-policy matters.

    Conclusion

    As GST enters its sixth year journey, the changes suggested above will fine tune it to propel India towards $5 trillion economy.

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    Back2Basics: GST Input Tax Credit

    • Input Tax Credit means claiming the credit of the GST paid on purchase of Goods and Services which are used for the furtherance of business.
    • The Mechanism of Input Tax Credit is the backbone of GST and is one of the most important reasons for the introduction of GST.

  • Indian MNCs are absent from discussions on digital policy

    Context

    Hyperactivity in the digital regulatory space in India in the form of policies, rules and guidelines signals the accelerated growth of the digital ecosystem which needs regulatory nurturing.

    Recent policy measures related to digital ecosystem

    • The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) has announced the draft amendment to the IT Rules 2021 (June 2022).
    • The draft India Data Accessibility and Use Policy (February 2022),
    • National Data Governance Framework Policy (May 2022) and the new cyber security directions (April 2022).
    • Besides these, the most awaited and critical e-commerce policy and the Data Protection Bill, both of which have been in the making for at least a few years now, are likely to be announced soon.
    • This hyperactivity signals the accelerated growth of the digital ecosystem which needs regulatory nurturing.
    • The government has recently invited stakeholders to an open house discussion on the proposed changes to the IT Rules.

    Participation of Big Tech platforms  and other stakeholders in policy discussions

    • Various aspects of digital economy: Governments have been pushed to respond to myriad aspects of the digital economy — from financial sector regulation to anti-trust to data privacy.
    • With so much at stake, Big Tech platforms have upped their advocacy by hiring qualified professionals and funding empirical research, not only in India but also across the world.
    • Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter and the likes are all actively engaged in policy discussions, either directly or through third parties to put forth a point of view.
    • Similarly, start-ups, think tanks, civil society organisations and academics invested in the issues of the digital economy either as users or as observers contribute to the policy discourse.

    Who is missing?

    • Indian origin multinational corporations — the Tatas, Reliance, Aditya Birla Group, Godrej, ITC, Bajaj, and Hero — have collectively contributed to the country’s development.
    • While these may not be quintessential digital companies, except for Reliance Jio, many are working towards adopting digital technologies for manufacturing, distribution, and client service.
    • Many companies now have online distribution channels that retail through intermediary platforms or their own websites.
    • The Tatas have taken the plunge into e-commerce, first with Tata Cliq and recently with Neu.
    •  Despite this, these Indian MNCs are distant from conversations on these landmark policies that will determine the future of Indian commerce.

    Government relations and outreach functions of MNCs

    • Government relations and outreach functions have always been important to big businesses.
    • At what point and in what manner MNCs interact with the government will of course vary.
    • Using a sector-specific example, all telecom companies in India committedly participate in TRAI’s open houses, industry deliberations and written submissions so that they can nudge policymakers toward industry-friendly decision-making that sits well with overall growth objectives.
    • On general concerns such as infrastructure and the ease of doing business, intervention from the industry is much more indirect and often an ex-post phenomenon, that is, after the policy has been announced.
    • The practice of multi-stakeholderism in policy formulation is present in letter, if not always in spirit.

    Policy formulation in digital economy

    • The case of the digital economy is different.
    • There are multiple opportunities and avenues for participating in dialogue.
    • Striking balance between business viability and government objectives: The policy teams of Big Tech make the most use of these channels to present their point of view and hope for reconciliation on issues, with the final policy document attempting to strike a balance between business viability and government objectives.
    • Over the last few years of active debate on critical digital policies including those on data governance, privacy, anti-trust, and intermediary liability, there has been an overwhelming presence of the Big Tech Indian start-ups competing in this space, as well as their affiliated associations.
    • Indian MNCs, for reasons unclear, has been mostly absent.

    Conclusion

    Absence of Indian MNCs resulted in is a disproportionate policy focus on keeping Big Tech in check as against creating an enabling, secure and trusted digital ecosystem in India. As many issues highlighted by Big Tech are likely to be pain points for Indian businesses as well, participation of Indian MNCs could break the “us versus them” problem plaguing policy making in India today.

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  • NITI Aayog’s plan for rollout of Digital Banks

    Last week, federal think tank NITI Aayog released a report on digital banks, offering a template for their licensing in India. It said India already has a technology stack to facilitate digital banks.

    What are the planned Digital Banks?

    • Digital Banks or DBs are full-scale banks to be licensed under the Banking Regulation Act.
    • Unlike traditional banks, which require brick-and-mortar infrastructure or physical access points, digital banks simply leverage technology to provide banking services through mobile applications and internet-based platforms.
    • DBs behave like any other scheduled commercial bank, accepting deposits, giving loans etc.
    • They will follow prudential and liquidity norms at par with the commercial banks.
    • Globally, terms like “digital banks”, “neobanks”, “challenger banks”, and “virtual banks” are often used interchangeably.

    What about digital banking units then?

    • The Union budget for FY23 proposed to establish digital banking units (DBUs) of scheduled commercial banks in 75 districts.
    • The objective is to ensure that the benefits of digital payments, banking and fintech innovations reach the grass-roots.
    • DBUs are treated as banking outlets, equivalent to a branch.
    • These units do not have a legal personality and are not licensed under the Banking Regulation Act.
    • Only existing commercial banks may establish DBUs. In contrast, digital banks will be licensed.
    • These banks are expected to ensure credit penetration to underserved MSMEs and retail customers.

    What purpose will digital banks serve?

    • Digital banks are expected to further innovation and support the underserved segments.
    • However, some believe that it will only cater to customers with some level of comfort with digital transactions.
    • According to them, RBI too is not comfortable with this model as the central bank believes that cash handling and credit decisions require physical branches.

    What does NITI Aayog suggest for DBs?

    • In the first phase, a restricted digital bank licence may be given, with limits in terms of volume/value of customers. In the second stage, the licensee will be put in a regulatory sandbox.
    • Finally, a ‘full-scale’ licence may be granted contingent on satisfactory performance.
    • A digital bank will be required to have initial capital of ₹20 crore while in the regulatory sandbox.
    • Upon progression from the sandbox, a full-stack digital business/consumer bank will be required to bring in ₹200 crore capital.

    What has been the global experience?

    • The UK has led the pack in terms of digital banks, with new entrants in the form of Monzo and Starling Bank.
    • Several jurisdictions in the South East Asian region have witnessed the rise of digital banks.
    • Hong Kong has issued separate licences for virtual banks.
    • As of May 2020, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has licensed 8 entities out of 33 applications.
    • In South Korea, Kakao Bank and K Bank operate as internet banks licensed under the Banking Act.
    • The Philippines has approved six licenses for digital banks.

     

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  • Weighing in on India’s investment-led revival

    Context

    The Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, said recently that India’s long-term growth prospects are embedded in public capital expenditure programmes. She added that an increase in public investment would crowd in (or pull in) private investment, thus reviving the economy.

    Significance of public investment-led economic growth

    • Public investment-led economic growth forms a credible strand of explanation for India’s post-Independence economic growth. 
    • Revival after Asian financial crisis: When it was faced with a slow-down after the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the  government initiated public road building projects.
    • In the form of the Golden Quadrilateral and the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana, these initiatives sowed the seeds of economic revival, culminating in an investment and export-led boom in the 2000s; GDP grew at 8%-9% annually.
    • In comparison, the investment record during the 2010s has been dismal.
    • However, a recent uptick is evident in the real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) rate — the fixed investment to GDP ratio (net of inflation).
    • The ratio recovered to 32.5% in 2019-20 from a low of 30.7% in 2015-16.

    Analysing the Investment distribution

    • As in the June edition of the Ministry of Finance’s Monthly Economic Review, the fixed investment to GDP ratio was 32% in 2021-22.
    • However, there is need for caution in reading the most recent data, as they are subject to revision.
    • Moreover, the budgetary definition of investment refers to financial investments (which include purchase of existing financial assets, or loans offered to States) and not just capital formation representing an expansion of the productive potential.
    • The National Accounts Statistics provides disaggregation of gross capital formation (GCF) by sectors, type of assets and modes of financing; over 90% of GCF consists of fixed investments.
    • No change in investment distribution: The investment distribution has hardly changed over the last decade, with the public sector’s share remaining 20%.
    • Fall in share of agriculture and industry: Between 2014-15 and 2019-20, the shares of agriculture and industry in fixed capital formation/GDP fell from 7.7% and 33.7% to 6.4% and 32.5%, respectively.
    • Services’ share rose to 52.3% in 2019-20 compared to 49% in 2014-15.
    • The rise in the services sector is almost entirely on transport and communications.
    • The share of transport has doubled from 6.1% to 12.9% during the same period.
    • Within transportation, it is mostly roads.
    • Decline in the share of investment: Its share in the investment ratio (column 2.1) fell from 19.2% in 2011-12 to 16.5% in 2019-20.
    • This indicates that ‘Make in India’ failed to take off, import dependence went up, and India became deindustrialised.
    • Import dependence on China is alarming for critical materials such as fertilizers, bulk drugs (active pharmaceutical ingredients or APIs) and capital goods.
    • Instead of boosting investment and domestic technological capabilities, the ‘Make in India’ campaign frittered away time and resources to raise India’s rank in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index.
    • Decline in foreign capital in GFC: The contribution of foreign capital to financing GCF fell to 2.5% in 2019-20 from 3.8% in 2014-15 (or 11.1% in 2011-12).
    • With declining investment share, industrial output growth rate fell from 13.1% in 2015-16 to a negative 2.4% in 2019-20, as per the National Accounts Statistics.

    Way forward

    • Need for balance: As roads and communications are classic public goods, investment in them is welcome.
    • However, for healthy domestic output growth, there is a need for balance between “directly productive investments” (in farms and factories) and infrastructure investments.
    • And this balance was missed.
    • The recent upturn in the aggregate fixed capital formation to GDP ratio is positive, though the rate is still lower than its mark in the early 2010s.

    Conclusion

    The claim that the investment revival is public sector driven is not borne out by facts. The budgetary figures refer to financial investment, not estimates of capital formation, indicating expansion of the economy’s productive capacity.

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    Back2Basics: Gross fixes capital formation

    • Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), also called “investment”, is defined as the acquisition of produced assets (including purchases of second-hand assets), including the production of such assets by producers for their own use, minus disposals.
    • The relevant assets relate to assets that are intended for use in the production of other goods and services for a period of more than a year.
    • The term “produced assets” means that only those assets that come into existence as a result of a production process are included.
    • It therefore does not include, for example, the purchase of land and natural resources.
    • This indicator is available in different measures: GFCF at current prices and current PPPs in US dollars, and annual growth rates of GFCF at constant prices, as well as quarterly data for percentage change over previous period and percentage change over same period last year.
    • The indicator at current prices and current PPPs is less suited for comparisons over time, as developments are not only caused by real growth, but also by changes in prices and PPPs.

  • 53 years of Bank Nationalization

    Last week, on July 19 was the 53rd anniversary of then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi nationalizing 14 banks.

    Bank Nationalization: A Backgrounder

    • In 1955 Imperial Bank of India was nationalized as RBI with State Bank of India to act as the principal agent  for extensive banking facilities on a large scale, especially in rural and semi-urban areas.
    • The other banks of the princely states were acquired by SBI much earlier.
    • However, the nationalization of banks in 1969 and later in 1980 was of a completely different scale.
    • In 1969, the move covered 14 (followed by six in 1980) of the largest private sector banks—putting 85% of the deposit base into the hands of the government.
    • This brought 80% of the banking segment in India under Government ownership.

    Why Nationalization of Banks?

    • After independence, the Government of India (GOI) adopted planned economic development for the country.
    • Nationalization was in accordance with the national policy of adopting the socialistic pattern of society.
    • The actual course came at the end of a troubled decade when India had suffered many economic as well as political shocks.

    Other reasons

    • Social welfare
    • Controlling private monopolies
    • Expansion of banking to rural areas
    • Reducing regional imbalance to curb the urban-rural divide
    • Priority Sector Lending
    • Mobilization of savings

    Immediate causes

    • There were two wars with China in 1962 and Pakistan in 1965 that put immense pressure on public finances.
    • Banks were failing largely due to speculative financial activities when Indira Gandhi became the prime minister in 1967.
    • Two successive years of drought had not only led to food shortages but also compromised national security because of the dependence on American food shipments.
    • Subsequently, a three-year plan holiday affected aggregate demand as public investment was reduced.
    • Agriculture needed a capital infusion, with the initiation of the Green Revolution in India which aimed to make the country self-sufficient in food security.
    • The collapse of banks was causing distress among people, who were losing their hard-earned money in the absence of a strong government support and legislative protection to their money.

    Post-nationalization challenges

    • Having ownership and operational control of the banks was a challenging task for the government.
    • The banks were constantly challenged on their profitability parameters—particularly RRBs which had both geographical and portfolio concentration risks.

    Establishing regional balance

    • The objective of social control was about making banking sector accessible in areas where these services were not accessible.
    • The state established 196 Regional Rural Banks (RRBs) between two nationalizations.
    • While nationalization, branch licensing policy and priority sector lending targets helped the banks to go to rural areas and certain sectors, it did not achieve regional balance.
    • Of the 20 banks that were nationalized, seven were concentrated in south India, six in west India, four in north India and three in east India.
    • The expanded rural branch network followed the extant regional concentration, bringing more intensive banking in southern and western regions.

    How was regional balance achieved then?

    • This skew was partially set right by two initiatives. The first was an institutional intervention of opening 196 RRBs which had focused area of operation.
    • The RRBs contributed significantly to reduce the regional imbalance with their expanding branch network in the 1980s.
    • RRBs also had a greater proportion of their loans flowing to priority sector in general and agriculture in particular.
    • The second was the policy on lead bank scheme where one bank was assigned as a lead for each district.
    • The lead bank was responsible for the growth and penetration of banking in districts and had to achieve it in coordination with other banks and the state machinery.
    • A “district credit” plan (euphemism for a banking plan), dovetailed with the government schemes, was to be prepared and monitored by the lead bank.
    1. Regional Rural Banks
    • RRBs are a shade better when it comes to rural lending.
    • While they have deployed 72% of the rural and semi-urban deposits as credit in those areas, the figure for urban understandably is very low, and most of these funds have gone into investments.
    1. Small Finance Banks
    • The new small finance banks (SFBs) give an entirely different picture—a large number of them are MFIs that converted into banks.
    • These institutions are trying to collect deposits from the middle and upper middle class and deploy those resources towards the poor.
    • From a paradigm point of view, possibly SFBs are the most interesting institutions that have turned the tables and are trying to achieve from the private sector the objectives set out in the bank nationalization.

    Public versus Private Banks

    • A look at the broad performance ratios for 2017-18 shows that private sector banks score better on efficiency and profitability parameters.
    • They have better return on assets, return on equity, net interest margin and a higher proportion of low-cost deposits.
    • On the other hand, public sector banks (PSBs) have a better impact on priority sector lending achievement, and paid higher wages.
    • Of the new Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana accounts 77% were opened by state-owned banks, 20% by RRBs, and a mere 3.4% accounts were opened by private banks.
    • From this perspective bank nationalization was indeed a good move at that time.

    What benefits do we reap today?

    • Banking under government ownership gave the public implicit faith and immense confidence about the sustainability of the banks.
    • Banks were no longer confined to only metropolitan or cosmopolitan in India. In fact, the Indian banking system has reached even to the remote corners of the country.
    • The present government has reached out to people through banks.
    • Assistance for constructing toilets under Swachh Bharat programme, DBT, Crop insurance schemes etc was given through banks.
    • The dispensing of Mudra loans to about 20 crore individuals, benefits under PM Kisan scheme for providing cash assistance to close to 15 crore farmers annually are only possible through this banks.
    • Thus banks became the government’s dispenser of goodies due to the decision which was taken 50 years ago.

    What about Financial Inclusion?

    • The All India Debt and Investment Survey reports indicate that the formal sector has been losing ground to the informal sector in the rural indebtedness pie since 2001 onwards.
    • This is worrying and indicates that the inclusion agenda is far from achieved.
    • Some examples in the public sector banking system—particularly SBI—have shown that it is possible to achieve the double bottom line of being in the commercial market while continuing to achieve significant targets in inclusion, sectoral, spatial and geographical.

    Way Forward

    • From the larger perspective of efficiency and better utilization of capital, it may be a good idea to move state-owned banks towards more market-based framework.
    • However, that call should be taken to achieve the residual task of inclusion.
    • Making state-owned banks more autonomous and accountable to the market may be the first significant step that can be taken for now.

    Also read:

    [Burning Issue] Privatization of PSBs

     

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  • What is the Controversy over GST levies on Food?

    From July 18, a 5% Goods and Services Tax (GST) has been levied on several food items and grains that are sold in a pre-packed, labelled form even if they are not branded.

    What is the news?

    • So far, these items, which include curd, lassi, buttermilk, puffed rice, wheat, pulses, oats, maize and flour, were exempted from the GST net.
    • The fresh tax levies have attracted an outcry from traders as well as consumers.

    What is GST?

    • GST launched in India on 1 July 2017 is a comprehensive indirect tax for the entire country.
    • It is charged at the time of supply and depends on the destination of consumption.
    • For instance, if a good is manufactured in state A but consumed in state B, then the revenue generated through GST collection is credited to the state of consumption (state B) and not to the state of production (state A).
    • GST, being a consumption-based tax, resulted in loss of revenue for manufacturing-heavy states.

    What are GST Slabs?

    • In India, almost 500+ services and over 1300 products fall under the 4 major GST slabs.
    • There are five broad tax rates of zero, 5%, 12%, 18% and 28%, plus a cess levied over and above the 28% on some ‘sin’ goods.
    • The GST Council periodically revises the items under each slab rate to adjust them according to industry demands and market trends.
    • The updated structure ensures that the essential items fall under lower tax brackets, while luxury products and services entail higher GST rates.
    • The 28% rate is levied on demerit goods such as tobacco products, automobiles, and aerated drinks, along with an additional GST compensation cess.

    How did the rate hikes come about?

    • The 5% tax on unbranded packed food items was approved by the GST Council.
    • Some of the other items to have lost their tax-exempt status include bank cheques, maps and atlases, hotel rooms that cost up to ₹1,000 a night, and hospital room rents of over ₹5,000 a day.
    • The pre-packed items weighing over 25 kg would not attract GST.

    Why such move?

    • This move was part of a broader set of changes in the GST structure to do away with tax exemptions as well as concessional tax rates.
    • The Centre and States had discussed the need to raise revenues from the GST, which at the time of its launch five years ago, was premised on levying a ‘revenue-neutral’ rate of 15.5%.
    • All affected food items, including wheat, pulses, rice, curd and lassi, will be exempt from GST when sold loose.

    What has the government said on the issue?

    • FM has hit out at misconceptions about the GST levies on food items and dismissed suggestions that they were imposed unilaterally by the Centre.
    • The 5% levy, she said, was critical to curb tax leakages and was not taken by ‘one member’ of the GST Council alone as all States had agreed to the move.
    • When GST was rolled out, a GST rate of 5% was made applicable on branded cereals, pulses, flour.
    • This was later amended to tax only such items which were sold under a registered brand or brands on which enforceable right was not foregone by the suppliers.
    • This tax exemption triggered ‘rampant misuse’ by reputed manufacturers and brand owners leading to a gradual drop in revenues.

     

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  • Despite pressures, the Indian rupee’s remarkable resilience

    Context

    The Indian rupee has depreciated by around 7% against the U.S. dollar, since the start of the year, in response to various domestic and global factors.

    What are the factors responsible for decline?

    • A widening current account deficit, persistent risk-off sentiment as a result of geopolitical tensions, ‘a strengthening dollar index, and continuous sell-off by foreign portfolio investors have all put pressure on the rupee’.
    • Reversal of monetary policy in the US: The runaway inflation levels since last year, which have seen consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the United States reaching a multi-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022, have prompted the reversal in the monetary policy stance of the US Federal Reserve.
    • With inflation rising unabated, the Fed is widely expected to continue raising interest rates.
    • Higher risk-free return in the US: As a result of higher risk-free returns being available in the U.S., there have been persistent outflows of foreign portfolio capital since October 2021, which, on a cumulative basis, stands at $30 billion this year.

    Comparison with the depreciation in the past

    • Even as the rupee has fallen sharply against the dollar, the depreciation has been relatively lower compared with past crises.
    • During the global financial crisis of 2008, the rupee had weakened by over 20% between December 2007-June 2009 and during the Taper Tantrum of 2013 for seven months from the start of the crisis in May 2013, the rupee had depreciated by over 11%.
    • Reduced external vulnerability: The relative lower depreciation this time is attributed to the lowering of India’s external vulnerability measured in terms of a relatively high import cover and low short-term external debt.
    • During the Taper Tantrum, India’s import cover stood at over seven months as compared to around 12 months in the current period.

    Decline in foreign exchange reserves

    • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has stepped in to arrest a large depreciation in the currency, with interventions in the spot and forward foreign exchange markets.
    • Consequently, India’s foreign exchange reserves have moderated by almost $55 billion from a high of $635 billion seen this year.
    • Elevated global crude oil prices have impinged on India’s oil import bill, in turn widening the trade deficit, thus increasing the demand for U.S. dollars, and affecting forex reserves further.

    Effects of weak rupee

    • Export to become competitive: Among the benefits is the premise that the rupee’s weakening should aid exporters in becoming more competitive.
    • However, the concomitant depreciation of currencies of some of India’s competitors such as South Korea, Malaysia and Bangladesh against the dollar, alongwith a high import intensity of some of its key export segments (petroleum, gems and jewellery and electronics), is likely to have blunted the ameliorative impact on India’s exports.
    • Increase in the price of imported commodities: a weaker rupee is driving up prices of key import commodities such as coal, oil, edible oil, gold, thus impacting the imported component of inflation.
    • Impact on the borrowers: The unhedged component of corporate debt denominated in dollars is also likely to bear the brunt of a weaker rupee.
    • Impact on investment: Most importantly, a continuously sliding exchange rate discourages foreign investors from making fresh investments, which keep losing value in dollar terms.
    • For this reason, it is ideal to provide confidence to investors by arresting a continuous slide in the exchange rate.

    Measure by the RBI to arrest the weakening of rupee

    • Apart from intervening in the forex market to arrest the fall in the rupee’s value, the RBI announced a slew of measures recently to liberalise foreign inflows into the country and make them more attractive.
    • Measures such include:
    • Promoting trade settlements between India and other countries in rupee terms.
    • Offering higher interest rates on fresh Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) and Non-Resident External deposits.
    • A widening of investible universe of government and corporate debt, a relaxation of the interest rate.
    • Amount ceiling for External Commercial Borrowing loans, among others, have contributed to arresting the rupee’s slide against the greenback.

    Way forward

    • Inclusion of companies in glabal indices: The Government could encourage some of the large market cap companies (private and public sectors) to be included in the major global indices such as MSCI and FTSE.
    • This will help increase the weight of Indian equities in these indices, compensating for foreign portfolio outflows to some extent as investors are unlikely to be underweight on India.
    • India’s entry into bond indices: The Government could also expedite India’s entry into bond indices such as J.P. Morgan’s Emerging-Market Bond Index and Barclays Global Bond Index.
    • This will not only lead to forex inflows but also have a benign impact on interest rates.
    • Such measures will keep the forex war chest of the RBI at a comfortable level, providing the central bank the requisite ammunition in case there is further weakness.
    • The maintenance of the U.S.-India interest rate differential along with timely forex market interventions by the central bank to manage volatility will prove to be salutary in preserving the rupee value against the greenback.

    Conclusion

    Even as the rupee is expected to remain under pressure in the near term because of global uncertainty, high commodity prices and rising U.S. interest rates, mitigating measures have to be taken to partly arrest the slide.

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    Back2Basics: What is taper tantrum?

    • Taper tantrum refers to the 2013 collective reactionary panic that triggered a spike in U.S. Treasury yields, after investors learned that the Federal Reserve was slowly putting the breaks on its quantitative easing (QE) program.
    • The Fed announced that it would be reducing the pace of its purchases of Treasury bonds, to reduce the amount of money it was feeding into the economy.
    • The ensuing rise in bond yields in reaction to the announcement was referred to as a taper tantrum in financial media.