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GS Paper: Indian Economy

  • What to do about the heavy cost of doing business in India

    Context

    The controversy over Ease of the Doing Business (EoDB) notwithstanding, India must now sharpen its focus on the Cost of Doing Business (CoDB).

    Cost of Doing Business in India

    • India has made considerable progress on EoDB rankings since 2016.
    • While the Centre’s focus on EoDB has been commendable, several state governments have also made efforts to improve business conditions.
    •  India must now sharpen its focus on the Cost of Doing Business (CoDB).
    • India lags behind other countries in terms of CoDB on several counts.

    Two key factors influencing CoDB — energy costs and regulatory overload

    • High fuel costs: Diesel prices in India are 20.8 per cent higher than those in China, 39.3 per cent higher than in the US, 72.5 per cent higher than Bangladesh and 67.8 per cent higher than in Vietnam.
    • This is largely because of heavy taxation — total taxes on diesel account for over 130 per cent of the base price in India.
    • High power costs: In the case of electricity, prices for businesses in India were higher by around 7-12 per cent vis-à-vis those in the US, Bangladesh or China and by as much as 35-50 per cent as compared to those in South Korea or Vietnam prior to the recent coal/energy crisis.
    • Coal, which accounts for more than 70 per cent of electricity generation in India, is also pricier vis-à-vis other countries leading to higher electricity prices.
    • Like in the case of the petroleum sector, government levies account for nearly half of the prices paid by coal consumers.
    • And coal producers cannot claim input tax credit because electricity is not under GST.
    • Further, coal freight costs are amongst the highest in the world as high freight rates are used to cross-subsidise passenger fares by the railways.
    • Regulatory overload: Outsized regulatory levels also pose a significant burden on businesses.
    • A Teamlease report highlights that a small manufacturing company with just one plant and up to 500 employees is regulated by more than 750 compliances, 60 Acts and 23 licences and regulations.
    • A mid-sized manufacturing company with six plants spread across different states is regulated by more than 5,500 compliances, 135 Acts and 98 licences and registrations.
    •  Keeping track of such a large number of regulations along with the changes thereof, imposes huge operational and financial costs on businesses, particularly the MSME segment.

    Way forward

    • Including fuels under GST would lower costs for businesses owing to input tax credit even if taxation levels continue to remain high.
    • Cleaning up the power distribution sector, which is largely state-controlled, could potentially lower electricity prices for businesses.
    • Fiscal incentives by the Centre: A majority of the compliances stem from the states and reducing this burden would require a significant push on states to act on this front.
    • The Centre could leverage the “carrot and stick” framework — using fiscal incentives to nudge the states to act and disincentivise them from maintaining the status quo.

    Consider the question “What are the factors affecting the cost of doing business in India? Suggest the measures to reduce it.”

    Conclusion

    The Government must prioritise reducing the cost of energy and compliances for businesses rather than focusing on de jure measures to boost ease of doing business. These will boost India’s manufacturing competitiveness significantly and further increase formalisation in the economy.

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  • Gross NPAs of Banks to Rise

    Gross Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) of banks are expected to rise to 8-9% this fiscal from 7.5% as on March 31, 2021 but they would still remain below the peak of 11.2% seen at the end of fiscal 2018.

    What are Non-Performing Assets?

    • For a bank, the loans given by the bank is considered as its assets.
    • Any asset which stops giving returns to its investors for a specified period of time is known as Non-Performing Asset (NPA).
    • So, if the principle or the interest or both the components of a loan is not being serviced to the lender (bank), then it would be considered as NPA.

    Classification of NPAs in India

    • According to the RBI, a NPA is a loan or advance for which the principal or interest payment remained overdue for a period of 90 days.
    • Banks are required to classify NPAs further into Substandard, Doubtful and Loss assets.
    1. Substandard Assets: Assets which has remained NPA for a period less than or equal to 12 months.
    2. Doubtful Assets: An asset would be classified as doubtful if it has remained in the substandard category for a period of 12 months.
    3. Loss Assets: As per RBI, loss asset is considered uncollectible and of such little value that its continuance as a bankable asset is not warranted, although there may be some salvage or recovery value.

    NPAs of Agriculture Loans

    In terms of Agriculture/Farm Loans, the NPA is defined as under:

    • For short duration crop such as paddy, Jowar, Bajra etc. if the loan (instalment/interest) is not paid for 2 crop seasons, it would be termed as an NPA.
    • For Long Duration Crops, the above would be 1 Crop season from the due date

    Reasons for NPAs in India

    Impact of NPA on Economy

    • Depositors’ loss: Depositors do not get rightful returns and many times may lose uninsured deposits.
    • High interest on lending: Banks may begin charging higher interest rates on some products to compensate NPA loan losses.
    • Trust issues: Bad loans imply redirecting of funds from good projects to bad ones. Hence, the economy suffers due to loss of good projects and failure of bad investments

    Steps taken to curb NPA

    (A) By the Govt

    • Mission Indradhanush:to make the working of public sector bank more transparent and professional in order to curb the menace of NPA in future.
    • Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code: To make it easier for banks to recover the loans from the debtors.
    • Stringent NPA recovery rules: The Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act or SARFESI Act of 2002 was amended in 2016.

    (B) By RBI

    RBI introduced number of measures in last few years which include:

    • Corporate Debt Restructuring (CDR) mechanism,
    • Setting up a Joint Lenders’ Forum, providing banks to disclose the real picture of bad loans, asking them to increase provisioning for stressed assets,

    Other terms related to NPAs

    Write-off effect

    • A loan write-off is a tool used by banks to clean up their balance-sheets.
    • If a loan turns bad on the account of the repayment defaults for at least three consecutive quarters, the exposure (loan) can be written off.
    • A loan write-off sets free the money parked by the banks for the provisioning of any loan.

    Twin Balance Sheet

    • It deals with two balance sheet problems. One with Indian companies and the other with Indian Banks.
    • Debt accumulation on companies is very high and thus they are unable to pay interest payments on loans.

    Four Balance Sheet Challenge

    • In his paper named ‘India’s Great Slowdown’, Arvind Subramanian (former Chief Economic Advisor) mentions the new ‘Four balance sheet challenge’.
    • It includes the original two sectors – infrastructure companies and banks, plus NBFCs and real estate companies.

     

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  • World Economic Outlook (WEO) Report by IMF

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has unveiled its 2nd World Economic Outlook (WEO) Report.

    About WEO Report

    • The WEO is a report by the IMF that analyzes key parts of the IMF’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries.
    • It also projects developments in the global financial markets and economic systems.
    • The report comes out twice every year — April and October.
    • It is based on a wide set of assumptions about a host of parameters — such as the international price of crude oil — and set the benchmark for all economies to compare one another with.

    Key takeaways from the October 2021 WEO

    • The central message was that the global economic recovery momentum had weakened due to the pandemic-induced supply disruptions.
    • It is the increasing inequality among nations that IMF was most concerned about.
    • The dangerous divergence in economic prospects across countries remains a major concern.

    Reasons for the slowdown

    There are two key reasons:

    1. Large disparities in vaccine access
    2. Differences in policy support

    What about Employment?

    Ans. There is a lag.

    • Employment around the world remains below its pre-pandemic levels.
    • This reflects a mix of negative output gaps, worker fears of on-the-job infection in contact-intensive occupations, childcare constraints, labour demand changes due to automation etc.
    • The main concern is the gap between recovery in output and employment which is likely to be larger in emerging markets and developing economies than in advanced economies.
    • Further, young and low-skilled workers are likely to be worse off than prime-age and high-skilled workers, respectively.

    Implications for India

    Ans. Reduce India’s growth momentum

    • IMF has suggested that India’s economic recovery is gaining ground.
    • Some sectors such as the IT-services sectors have been practically unaffected by Covid, while the e-commerce industry is doing brilliantly.
    • However, the recovery in unemployment is lagging the recovery in output (or GDP).
    • This matters immensely for India as it reflects jobless growth.
    • India was already facing a deep employment crisis before the Covid crisis, and it became much worse after it.
    • Lack of adequate employment levels would again drag down overall demand and affect the growth momentum.

    Threats to growth momentum

    • Usual unemployment: Even before the pandemic, India already had a massive unemployment crisis.
    • Sector-wise recovery: India is witnessing a K-shaped recovery. That means different sectors are recovering at significantly different rates.
    • Unorganized sector: A weak recovery for the informal/unorganized sectors implies a drag on the economy’s ability to create new jobs or revive old ones.
    • Contact-based services: Such services which can create many more jobs, are not seeing a similar bounce-back.

    How informal is India’s economy?

    • A NSO report titled ‘Measuring Informal Economy in India’ gives a detailed account of informal Indian economy.
    • It shows the share of different sectors of the economy in the overall Gross Value Added and the share of the unorganised sector therein.
    • The share of informal/unorganised sector GVA is more than 50% at the all-India level, and is even higher in certain sectors.
    • It creates a lot of low-skilled jobs such as construction and trade, repair, accommodation, and food services.

    This is why India is more vulnerable.

     

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  • Issues with RBI’s microfinance proposals

    Context

    In June 2021, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) published a “Consultative Document on Regulation of Microfinance”. The likely impact of the recommendations is unfavourable to the poor.

    Background of microfinance in India

    • Microfinance lending has been in place since the 1990s.
    • In the 1990s, microcredit was given by scheduled commercial banks either directly or via non-governmental organisations to women’s self-help groups.
    • But given the lack of regulation and scope for high returns, several for-profit financial agencies such as NBFCs and MFIs emerged.
    • The microfinance crisis of Andhra Pradesh led the RBI to review the matter, and based on the recommendations of the Malegam Committee, a new regulatory framework for NBFC-MFIs was introduced in December 2011.
    • A few years later, the RBI permitted a new type of private lender, Small Finance Banks (SFBs), with the objective of taking banking activities to the “unserved and underserved” sections of the population.
    • Today, as the RBI’s consultative document notes, 31% of microfinance is provided by NBFC-MFIs, and another 19% by SFBs and 9% by NBFCs.
    • These private financial institutions have grown exponentially over the last few years.

    What are the recommendations in the document?

    • The consultative document recommends that the current ceiling on rate of interest charged by non-banking finance company-microfinance institutions (NBFC-MFIs) or regulated private microfinance companies needs to be done away with.
    • The paper argues that the interest rate ceiling is biased against one lender (NBFC-MFIs) among the many: commercial banks, small finance banks, and NBFCs.
    • It proposes that the rate of interest be determined by the governing board of each agency, and assumes that “competitive forces” will bring down interest rates.

    Comparison of rate of interest

    • According to current guidelines, the ‘maximum rate of the interest rate charged by an NBFC-MFI shall be the lower of the following: the cost of funds plus a margin of 10% for larger MFIs (a loan portfolio of over ₹100 crores) and 12% for others; or the average base rate of the five largest commercial banks multiplied by 2.75’.
    • A quick look at the website of some Small Finance Banks (SFBs) and NBFC-MFIs showed that the “official” rate of interest on microfinance was between 22% and 26% — roughly three times the base rate.
    • How does this compare with credit from public sector banks and cooperatives?
    • Crop loans from Primary Agricultural Credit Societies (PACS) in Tamil Nadu had a nil or zero interest charge if repaid in eight months.
    • Kisan credit card loans from banks were charged 4% per annum (9% with an interest subvention of 5%) if paid in 12 months (or a penalty rate of 11%).
    • Other types of loans from scheduled commercial banks carried an interest rate of 9%-12% a year.
    • As even the RBI now recognises, the rate of interest charged by private agencies on microfinance is the maximum permissible, a rate of interest that is a far cry from any notion of cheap credit.
    • The actual cost of microfinance loans is even higher for several reasons.
    •  An “official” flat rate of interest used to calculate equal monthly instalments actually implies a rising effective rate of interest over time.
    • In addition, a processing fee of 1% is added and the insurance premium is deducted from the principal.

    Violations of RBI guidelines

    • In line with RBI regulations, all borrowers had a repayment card with the monthly repayment schedules.
    • This does not mean that borrowers understood the charges.
    • Further, contrary to the RBI guideline of “no recovery at the borrower’s residence”, the collection was at the doorstep.

    Conclusion

    The proposals in the RBI’s consultative document will lead to further privatisation of rural credit, reducing the share of direct and cheap credit from banks and leaving poor borrowers at the mercy of private financial agencies. This is beyond comprehension at a time of widespread post-pandemic distress among the working poor.

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  • Taking the lid off illicit financial flows

    Context

    The Pandora Papers, published on October 3, once again expose the illegal activities of the rich and the mighty across the world.

    About the Pandora Papers investigation

    • It is “the world’s largest-ever journalistic collaboration, involving more than 600 journalists from 150 media outlets in 117 countries”.
    • The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) has researched and analysed the approximately 12 million documents in order to unravel the functioning of the global financial architecture.
    • The Pandora Papers, unlike the previous cases, are not from any one tax haven; they are leaked records from 14 offshore services firms. The data pertains to an estimated 29,000 beneficiaries.
    • The 2.94 terabytes of data have exposed the financial secrets of over 330 politicians and public officials, from more than 90 countries and territories.
    • These include 35 current and former country leaders.

    Role of financial centres and banks

    • A large extent of the illicit financial flows have a link to New York City and London, the biggest financial centres in the world that allow financial institutions such as big banks to operate with ease.
    • The big financial entities operating from these cities have been prosecuted for committing illegalities.
    • In 2012, an investigation into the London Interbank Offered Rate or LIBOR — crucial in calculating interest rates — led to the fining of leading banks such as Barclays, UBS, Rabobank and the Royal Bank of Scotland for manipulation.
    • These banks also operate a large number of subsidiaries in tax havens to help illicit financial flows.

    Modus operandi

    • Tax havens enable the rich to hide the true ownership of assets by using: trusts, shell companies and the process of ‘layering’.
    • Financial firms offer their services to work this out for the rich.
    • They provide ready-made shell companies with directors, create trusts and ‘layer’ the movement of funds.
    • The process of layering involves moving funds from one shell-company in one tax haven to another in another tax haven and liquidating the previous company.
    • This way, money is moved through several tax havens to the ultimate destination.
    • Since the trail is erased at each step, it becomes difficult for authorities to track the flow of funds.
    • It appears that most of the rich in the world use such manipulations to lower their tax liability even if their income is legally earned.

    Why funds are moved to the tax havens?

    • Even citizens of countries with low tax rates use tax havens.
    • Over the three decades, tax havens have enabled capital to become highly mobile, forcing nations to lower tax rates to attract capital.
    • This has led to the ‘race to the bottom’, resulting in a shortage of resources with governments to provide public goods, etc., in turn adversely impacting the poor.
    • Lowering tax liability: It appears that most of the rich in the world use such manipulations to lower their tax liability even if their income is legally earned.
    • Moving funds out of reach of creditors: Revelations suggest that funds are moved out of national jurisdiction to spirit them away from the reach of creditors and not just governments.
    • Many fraudsters are in jail but have not paid their creditors even though they have funds abroad.

    Challenges in checking the illicit financial flows

    • The very powerful who need to be onboard to curb illicit financial flows (as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, or the OECD is trying) are the beneficiaries of the system and would not want a foolproof system to be put in place to check it.
    • Strictly speaking, not all the activity being exposed by the Pandora Papers may be illegal due to tax evasion or the hiding of proceeds of crime.
    • The authorities will have to prove if the law of the land has been violated.
    • Operators outside the purview of tax authorities: Many Indians have become non-resident Indians or have made some relative into an NRI who can operate shell companies and trusts outside the purview of Indian tax authorities.
    • That is why prosecution has been difficult in the earlier cases of data leakage from tax havens.
    • The Supreme Court of India-monitored Special Investigation Team (SIT) set up in 2014 has not been able to make a dent.
    • Role of organised sector: The Government’s focus on the unorganised sector as the source of black income generation is also misplaced since data indicate that it is the organised sector that has been the real culprit and also spirits out a part of its black incomes.

    Way forward

    • Global minimum tax: Recent development has been the agreement among almost 140 countries to levy a 15% minimum tax rate on corporates.
    • Though it is a long shot, this may dent the international financial architecture.
    • Ending banking secrecy: Other steps needed to tackle the curse of illicit financial flows are ending banking secrecy and a Tobin tax on transactions; neither of which the OECD countries are likely to agree to.

    Consider the question “How illicits financial flows affect the economies of the nations? What are the challenges in curbing it?” 

    Conclusion

    To curb the illicit financial flows, the global community needs to reach a consensus on several issues and tackle the challege collectively.

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  • Is India’s current investor rush too much of a good thing?

    Human traits driving financial markets

    • To imitate and to conform — do what others around us are doing — are common and very powerful human tendencies.
    •  In financial markets, “herd behaviour” is a warning sign: When markets are doing well, people invest for no other reason than their neighbours having become wealthier (and vice versa).
    • There is another human trait that affects markets — success increases risk appetite.
    • If someone’s financial investments work, they are very likely to invest more, and ignore safety measures.

    Factors driving the private equity investments

    • Better physical infrastructure (rural roads, electrification, phone penetration, data access).
    • Several layers of innovation (universal bank account access, surging digital payments on the “India Stack”).
    • 45 lakh software developers (largest in the world).
    • Maturing industries (for example, as research budgets of Indian pharmaceutical manufacturers have grown 10 times in the last 15 years.
    • The ecosystem can take on more challenging projects now, versus just generic filings a decade back).
    • Strong medium-term economic growth prospects create fertile ground for private equity investments.
    • Investors with patient capital (knowing that the businesses will not make money for several years) are now betting on and financing a faster transition to electric vehicles than was earlier anticipated.
    • In financial services, innovative methods of lending, insurance underwriting and wealth management are being experimented with, which are likely to only expand the market meaningfully.
    • An army of Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) firms have been funded in the hope of revolutionising the development and distribution of software.
    • There are also new-age distribution and logistics companies, education technology firms, and branded consumer goods suppliers, in addition to “normal” e-commerce, gaming and food-delivery startups.

    Risks involved in a rapid infusion of capital

    • Allocation inefficiency: Theoretically, an economy India’s size is capable of absorbing the $52 billion of PE funding seen over the last 12 months, but in practice, such a rapid surge creates allocation inefficiency. 
    •  As investors rush to deploy ever-larger sums of money, they appear to be running out of companies to invest in that can productively deploy this capital.
    • The result is companies’ valuations rising manifold within months and small firms getting more capital inflows than they can deploy, often resulting in wasteful business plans.
    • When investors rush to deploy funds, the risk of fraud rises — inadequate disclosures and weak due diligence are compounded by incentives to misrepresent financial data.
    • The discovery of any such frauds would likely freeze funding for the industry for a few quarters.

    Why now?

    • India has never lacked entrepreneurs, but lacked risk capital given the low per capita wealth.
    • As savers like pension and insurance funds in the developed world responded to record-low interest rates by allocating more to PE as an asset class, private funding markets have grown rapidly in the last 15 years globally.
    • In India, PE funding has exceeded public-market fund-raising every year in the past decade.
    • While earlier, only a few business groups could muster sizeable amounts of risk capital to establish new businesses and disrupt old ones, entrepreneurs can now lay hands on hundreds of millions of dollars if the idea makes sense.

    Conclusion

    For now, this flow of funds is a welcome booster for the economy as it recovers from the scars of the pandemic-driven lockdowns. While valuations can be volatile in the near term, we are in the early stages of this reshaping of India’s corporate landscape.

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  • RBI’s monetary policy statement

    Context

    The Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI kept the benchmark policy rates unchanged, and retained the accommodative stance in its October review.

    Factors playing part in monetary policy decisions

    • It’s important to remember that monetary policy these days is influenced by both local macroeconomic developments and the global monetary policy direction, with the former playing a dominant role.
    • Locally, after the second wave of the pandemic, a variety of indicators such as the Purchasing Managers Index (manufacturing and services), mobility indicators, government tax collections, exports and imports are pointing at an improvement in economic activity.
    • Then there is the good news on the monsoon front. With a late pick-up in rains, the cumulative deficiency in this monsoon season has come down to just 1 per cent of the long-period average (LPA).
    • Since the MPC’s August 2021 policy review, Covid-19 cases have trended down and there has been admirable progress on the vaccination front.
    • Also, despite high year-on-year growth numbers, the level of economic activity this fiscal will only be 1.5 per cent above 2019-2020.

    Trends emerging from the economic recovery

    • Role of government: Capital expenditure of both the Centre and states is on track to meet the budgetary commitment, supported by healthy tax collections.
    • Large companies on recovery path: Large companies in industrial sectors such as steel, cement, non-ferrous metals are operating at healthy utilisation levels, and have deleveraged their balance sheets.
    • Policy support for smaller companies: The going is not so good for the smaller ones.
    • Clearly, smaller companies need policy support. The extension of the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme is a recognition of that.
    • Private consumption is not broad-based either.
    • Even in goods consumption, which is faring better than services, the nature of demand seems skewed towards relatively higher-value items such as cars and utility vehicles.
    • This probably reflects the income dichotomy spawned by the pandemic.
    • Inflation: Its fall to 5.3 per cent in August offers only limited comfort for two reasons.
    • One, core and fuel inflation, which have 54 per cent weightage in CPI, remain stubbornly high.
    • Second, food prices have nudged down overall inflation.
    • Domestic growth-inflation dynamics suggest that the RBI has little option but to remain more tolerant of persistent price pressures, and hope that these will eventually prove transitory because they have been primarily driven by supply shocks caused by the pandemic.

    Global monetary policy environment

    • Globally, the monetary policy environment is veering towards normalisation/tapering/interest-rate rise largely due to an upward surprise in inflation, or because some central banks feel the objectives of quantitative easing have been met.
    • Central banks in advanced economies such as Norway, Korea and New Zealand have recently raised rates.
    • The two systemically important central banks — the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) — view the current spike in inflation as fleeting and have communicated greater tolerance for it for a longer period.

    Conclusion

    The process of mopping up excess liquidity will slowly gain pace over the next few months, followed by a policy rate hike sometime around early 2022. By then, there should be enough clarity on the third wave and the stance of the Fed and the ECB.

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  • WTO raises 2021 goods trade outlook

    The World Trade Organization (WTO) has upgraded its world merchandise trade growth outlook to nearly 11 percent for this year, higher than 8% estimated in March.

    About WTO

    • The World Trade Organization (WTO) is an intergovernmental organization that regulates and facilitates international trade between nations.
    • Governments use the organization to establish, revise, and enforce the rules that govern international trade.
    • It officially commenced operations on 1 January 1995, pursuant to the 1994 Marrakesh Agreement, thus replacing the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) that had been established in 1948.
    • The WTO is the world’s largest international economic organization, with 164 member states representing over 96% of global trade and global GDP.
    • The WTO facilitates trade in goods, services and intellectual property among participating countries.
    • It prohibits discrimination between trading partners, but provides exceptions for environmental protection, national security, and other important goals.

    Report on Global trade

    • According to a WTO, global goods trade is expected to grow by 10.8 per cent compared to the forecast of 8 per cent in March, but with varied recovery, depending on the region.
    • The report said export volume growth in 2021 will be 8.7 per cent in North America, 7.2 per cent in South America, 9.7 per cent in Europe, 7 per cent in Africa, 5 per cent in West Asia and the highest for Asia at 14.4 per cent.
    • On the other hand, imports are expected to grow at a faster pace as compared to exports. Inbound shipments into North America are set to grow by 12.6 per cent.
    • It will be 19.9 per cent in South America, 9.1 per cent in Europe, 13.1 per cent in CIS, 11.3 per cent in Africa, 9.3 per cent in West Asia and 10.7 per cent in Asia.

    Key highlights for India

    • Exports from India have been rising consistently over the last few quarters, after plummeting for a few months as the outbreak of Covid-19 disrupted global trade.
    • India’s exports to its top trading partners such as the US, European Union, nations in West Asia, among others, are expected to rise.
    • Exports data during the first six months of the current fiscal year is emblematic of the fact that external demand has been robust.
    • Besides, supply-side disruptions can also be exacerbated by the rapid and unexpectedly strong recovery of demand in advanced and many emerging economies.

    Competing with China

    • Experts said with rising global demand, India should be able to compete in various segments vis-a-vis China.
    • Currently, China is facing supply-side as well as demand-side issues owing to several internal challenges (energy, debt crisis).
    • Therefore, India is in a good position to increase its exports, and can become a substitute for China across various product categories or sectors.
    • India can take advantage of the increasing global demand, which can ultimately translate into demand for Indian exports.

     

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  • RBI suspends G-Sec Acquisition Programme (GSAP)

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to halt its bond-buying under the G-Sec Acquisition Programme (GSAP).

    Why such move?

    • The GSAP had succeeded in ensuring adequate liquidity and stabilising financial markets.
    • Coupled with other liquidity measures, it facilitated congenial and orderly financing conditions and a conducive environment for the recovery.

    What is GSAP?

    • The G-Sec Acquisition Programme (G-SAP) is basically an unconditional and a structured Open Market Operation (OMO), of a much larger scale and size.
    • G-SAP is an OMO with a ‘distinct character’.
    • The word ‘unconditional’ here connotes that RBI has committed upfront that it will buy G-Secs irrespective of the market sentiment.

    What are Government Securities?

    • These are debt instruments issued by the government to borrow money.
    • The two key categories are:
    1. Treasury bills (T-Bills) – short-term instruments which mature in 91 days, 182 days, or 364 days, and
    2. Dated securities – long-term instruments, which mature anywhere between 5 years and 40 years

    Note: T-Bills are issued only by the central government, and the interest on them is determined by market forces.

    Why G-Secs?

    • Like bank fixed deposits, g-secs are not tax-free.
    • They are generally considered the safest form of investment because they are backed by the government. So, the risk of default is almost nil.
    • However, they are not completely risk-free, since they are subject to fluctuations in interest rates.
    • Bank fixed deposits, on the other hand, are guaranteed only to the extent of Rs 5 lakh by the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC).

    Other decisions

    • The RBI, however, remained ready to undertake G-SAP as and when warranted by liquidity conditions.
    • It would also continue to flexibly conduct other liquidity management operations including Operation Twist (OT) and regular open market operations (OMOs).

    Answer this PYQ in the comment box:

    Q.Consider the following statements:

    1. The Reserve Bank of India manages and services the Government of India Securities but not any State Government Securities.
    2. Treasury bills are issued by the Government of India and there are no treasury bills issued by the State Governments.
    3. Treasury bills offer are issued at a discount from the par value.

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    (a) 1 and 2 only

    (b) 3 Only

    (c) 2 and 3 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

     

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    Back2Basics: Open Market Operations (OMO)

    • OMOs is one of the quantitative monetary policy tools which is employed by the central bank of a country to control the money supply in the economy.
    • It is a part of the Market Stabilization Scheme (MSS) by the RBI.
    • OMOs are conducted by the RBI by way of sale or purchase of government securities (g-secs) to adjust money supply conditions.
    • The central bank sells g-secs to remove liquidity from the system and buys back g-secs to infuse liquidity into the system.

  • WTO & Related issues

    Context

    Created in 1995, during the heyday of neoliberalism, the World Trade Organization (WTO) became a shining example of triumphant free-market capitalism. Now, the WTO is facing a serious existential crisis.

    Challenges facing WTO

    1) Disfunctional appellate body

    • The United States, which played a pivotal role in establishing the WTO, seems to have lost interest in it.
    • The feeling in the US is that the WTO hasn’t served the American national interest by failing to stem China’s rise and regularly indicting the U.S. in several trade disputes.
    • The continuation of the U.S. policy on the WTO is most evident in the sustained crippling of the Appellate Body (AB).
    • Three out of seven AB members serve on any one case.
    • However, since December 2019, the AB has stopped functioning due to rising vacancies.
    • Countries now have an easy option not to comply with the WTO panel decisions by appealing into the void.
    • If no solution is found soon, the WTO’s rules-based order will start crumbling.

    2) Public stockholding for food security purposes

    • No solution has been found to the public stockholding for food security purposes despite a clear mandate to do so in the 2015 Nairobi ministerial meeting.
    • This is of paramount concern for countries like India that use Minimum Support Price (MSP)-backed mechanisms to procure foodgrains.
    • With rising prices and the need to do higher procurement to support farmers and provide food to the poor at subsidised prices, India might breach the cap.
    •  Although countries have agreed that legal suits will not be brought if countries breach the cap (the so-called ‘peace clause’), it is imperative to find a permanent solution such as not counting MSP-provided budgetary support as trade-distorting.

    3) Disagreement on TRIPS waiver for Covid-19

    • The WTO member countries continue to disagree on the need of waiving the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) agreement for COVID-19 related medical products.
    • It was exactly a year back when India and South Africa proposed a TRIPS waiver to overcome intellectual property (IP)-related obstacles in increasing accessibility of COVID-19 medical products, including vaccines.

    4)  Regulating irrational subsidies provided for fishing

    • Irrational subsidies provided for fishing that has led to the overexploitation of marine resources by countries like China, which is the largest catcher and exporter of fish.
    • The WTO is close to signing a deal on regulating irrational subsidies
    • This agreement should strike a balance between conserving ocean resources and the livelihood concerns of millions of small and marginal fishermen in countries like India.

    5) Fragmentation of global governance due to plurilateral trade agreements

    • The gridlock at the WTO has led to the emergence of mega plurilateral trade agreements like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement.
    • These mega plurilateral agreements not only fragment the global governance on international trade but also push the multilateral order to the margin, converting the WTO to what some call an “institutional zombie”.

    Conclusion

    Notwithstanding its flaws, the WTO is the only forum where developing countries like India, not party to any mega plurilateral trade agreements, can push for evolving an inclusive global trading order that responds to the systemic imbalances of extant globalisation. What is at stake is the future of trade multilateralism and not just an institution, in which India has a huge interest.

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