In parched Maharashtra, why drought can’t be declared yet

Why in the News

Maharashtra cannot formally declare a drought despite a rainfall deficit across 31 of its 36 districts, because the rules governing central relief fix an assessment window that has not yet opened. Under National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF) norms, a kharif drought assessment can begin only from 5 October, once the monsoon starts to withdraw, and a rabi assessment only in March 2027. Opposition leaders have asked that a drought be declared, and the Chief Minister has said the government is taking all steps necessary to deal with an alarming situation. The contested point is that a declaration framework built around fixed seasonal windows cannot respond to a crop failure that has already occurred.

Why has a drought not been declared yet?

1. The kharif window: NDRF rules allow a drought assessment for the kharif season, which runs from June to October, to begin only from 5 October, once the monsoon starts to withdraw.
2. The rabi window: For the rabi season, which runs from October to April, the assessment can be held only in March 2027.
3. What the timing means on the ground: The kharif crop has already failed, so the assessment that decides relief will measure a loss that was complete before the window opened.

Who declares a drought, and on what basis?

1. No single national definition: There is no definition of drought accepted across India, so the threshold is not uniform between States.
2. The State declares: States hold the authority to declare a drought based on local conditions.
3. The Centre holds the money: The State’s report must conform to the parameters specified under NDRF norms, and disaster relief funds are unlocked by the Centre.
4. Why the two halves do not match: A State can act on local conditions but cannot fund the response on its own, so the operative standard is the central one whatever the State’s own assessment says.

What are the NDRF parameters for a declaration?

1. Crop loss: The extent of loss to the standing crop is the primary trigger.
2. The moisture adequacy index: The index measures how far available soil moisture meets crop water requirement, and it is used to assess soil health for the purpose of the declaration.
3. Rainfall deficit: The deficit must be up to 70 per cent.
4. Sowing shortfall: Sowing must fall below 50 per cent of the total cultivable kharif or rabi area.
5. Drinking water and groundwater: Drinking water shortage must be severe and groundwater tables must be shrinking.
6. Fodder shortage: Availability of fodder for livestock must be short.
7. Food production and migration: A decline in food production and labour migration in search of work are both counted.

What do the rainfall and sowing figures show?

1. The driver: The rain deficit this season is El Nino driven, and it has hit an agriculture dependent State economy directly.
2. The spread of the deficit: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) records that 31 of 36 districts in Maharashtra are rain deficient, with 20 of them facing a deficit of 25 per cent to 58 per cent.
3. The gaps between spells: In more than 100 of the State’s 355 drought hit talukas, gaps between rain spells have stretched to 40 to 60 days.
4. A delayed sowing: Kharif sowing began only on 15 July against the normal 10 June, and rain failure after sowing then stunted flowering and fruiting.
5. The area lost: The main kharif crop, sown across 147 lakh hectares, has withered.
6. The crops worst hit: Soybean and cotton, the mainstay of small and marginal farmers in Marathwada and Vidarbha, are the worst affected. The dry spell has also stunted sugarcane growth in Marathwada and parts of western Maharashtra.
7. Rain that damaged rather than helped: Where rain did fall it was short and intense, which damaged soil health and caused erosion in some areas.
8. The structural exposure: Maharashtra’s agriculture is largely rain fed, and its irrigation potential, at under 20 per cent, is far below that of States such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

How bad is the water storage position?

1. Major and medium dams: Data up to 20 September shows the State’s 138 major dams at 85 per cent of capacity and 264 medium dams at 65 per cent, against 96 per cent and 77 per cent at the same point last year.
2. The smallest storages are worst off: The State’s 2,630 small and micro dams stand at 43 per cent against 57 per cent a year ago, and these are the storages that villages draw on directly.
3. The regional split: Marathwada, which has the most dams at 929, holds 46 per cent against 81 per cent last year. Amravati division stands at 64 per cent, Nagpur at 72 per cent, Nashik at 83 per cent, Pune at 88 per cent and Konkan at 76 per cent.
4. Why drinking water is the immediate concern: Storage has to carry the State through the dry months to the next monsoon, so a deficit measured in September is a supply problem for the following summer.

What has the State done in the meantime?

1. Loss assessment has begun: The State government has begun surveys and panchanamas to assess crop loss, so that the administration can quantify losses in food production and in money terms.
2. A proposal after the window opens: Maharashtra has decided to submit a proposal to the Centre for financial assistance after 5 October.
3. A central team follows: Before relief funds are released, a central team will visit the affected regions and make its own assessment.
4. Relief already announced: The Chief Minister announced a farm loan waiver of Rs 40,385 crore during the monsoon session in July, with an additional Rs 50,000 incentive for farmers who repaid their loans regularly.

Challenges to the drought declaration framework

1. Relief is timed to the calendar rather than to the failure: An assessment window keyed to monsoon withdrawal starts counting after the loss is complete, so compensation arrives a season late. Eg. A kharif crop lost in August is assessed only from October under the present norms.
   The Fix: Allow a provisional interim assessment on a triggered basis once sowing and rainfall thresholds are breached, with the final assessment reconciling it later.
2. Taluka level averages hide the worst affected villages: Declaration works off administrative units, so a severely affected pocket inside a unit that is only moderately deficient receives nothing. Eg. Rain spell gaps vary sharply between talukas within the same division in the present season.
   The Fix: Use village level rainfall and satellite crop condition data as the unit of assessment, as crop insurance already does.
3. Rainfall totals do not capture distribution: A season can end close to the normal total and still destroy the crop through long dry spells at flowering. Eg. Short intense spells this season damaged soil and caused erosion while adding to the recorded total.
   The Fix: Weight dry spell length and the timing of rainfall against crop growth stages in the declaration parameters, not only the seasonal deficit.
4. The measure of damage is production, not income: Parameters built around crop loss and food production miss the loss of farm wage work and of livestock income that follows a failed season. Eg. Labour migration is counted as an indicator of drought rather than compensated as a loss.
   The Fix: Attach an automatic expansion of rural employment guarantee workdays and fodder camp funding to a declared drought, independent of the crop loss estimate.
5. Rain fed districts carry the shock every time: Where irrigation potential is under 20 per cent, the same districts fail in every deficit year and relief substitutes for capacity that was never built. Eg. Marathwada and Vidarbha carry the worst crop loss in the current season, as in earlier deficit years.
   The Fix: Tie drought relief transfers to a schedule of watershed treatment and micro irrigation coverage in the districts that receive them most often.

Conclusion

The declaration is a funding instrument and not a description of conditions, which is why a State can be in drought and not declared to be in one. The gap this exposes is between a relief architecture organised around seasons and a rainfall pattern that no longer arrives in them. The immediate status is that the State is conducting crop loss surveys and will submit its proposal once the assessment window opens. The winter season is the one to watch, since the rabi position is not assessed until March 2027.

Back2Basics: National Disaster Response Fund

1. Statutory basis: The Fund is constituted under the Disaster Management Act, 2005, and is held by the central government to supplement a State’s own response effort.
2. Relationship with the State fund: A State first meets relief from its State Disaster Response Fund, and the NDRF is accessed when that fund is inadequate for a disaster of severe nature.
3. How it is financed: It is financed through a cess levied for the purpose and through budgetary support, and it is audited by the Comptroller and Auditor General.
4. Coverage: It covers notified disasters including drought, cyclone, flood, earthquake, hailstorm, landslide, pest attack, cloudburst and cold wave.

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2014, GS3, 12.5 marks] Drought has been recognised as a disaster in view of its party expense, temporal duration, slow onset and lasting effect on various vulnerable sections. With a focus on the September 2010 guidelines from the National disaster management authority, discuss the mechanism for preparedness to deal with the El Nino and La Nina fallouts in India.”