Why in the News
The southwest monsoon has revived, cutting the seasonal deficit to 11.5%, but warns that a possible El Nino threatens the rabi crop and keeps urea supply in focus.
What is El Nino?
- Definition: El Nino is the abnormal warming of the central and eastern Pacific that weakens the Indian monsoon and disrupts rainfall.
- Crop link: A weak or erratic monsoon reduces soil moisture and reservoir storage needed for the winter rabi crop.
Why does the rabi outlook matter?
- Food and prices: Wheat and other rabi crops shape food inflation and buffer stocks.
- Input dependence: Adequate urea and irrigation are needed to protect rabi output if rainfall falters.
- Recovery is partial: A narrowed deficit does not remove the risk that late-season El Nino conditions bring.
Conclusion
A recovering monsoon eases the kharif outlook but leaves rabi exposed to El Nino. The next milestone is confirmation of El Nino conditions before the rabi season.
PYQ Relevance
[UPSC 2015]How far do you agree that the behavior of the Indian monsoon has been changing due to humanizing landscapes? Discuss.
Linkage: The PYQ explores changing monsoon behaviour and its impact on Indian agriculture. El Niño-induced rainfall variability shows how climatic and human factors can alter monsoon patterns and crop outcomes.