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Subject: “ClimatologyXMonsoon,ENSO,IOD”

  • WMO warns of ‘very’ strong El Nino, to last until February 2027

    WMO warns of ‘very’ strong El Nino, to last until February 2027

    Why in the News

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of an impending very strong El Nino that is expected to strengthen and last until February 2027. Its Secretary General stated that El Nino is firmly established and has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.

    How does El Nino work?

    1. The mechanism: El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial and eastern Pacific Ocean, caused by a weakening of the trade winds.
    2. Why it travels: The warming moves the region where heat and moisture rise into the atmosphere, which alters temperature and rainfall patterns far from the Pacific.
    3. Its rhythm: The phenomenon recurs every two to seven years and a single event lasts up to about twelve months.
    4. What it produces: It is known to trigger heatwaves, wet spells and extreme temperatures.

    How strong is this event, and how is that graded?

    1. The index used: Intensity is determined by the sea surface temperature averaged over three months in the Nino 3.4 region along the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    2. The readings so far: The index surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal during May to July and crossed 2 degrees Celsius above normal in July.
    3. The persistence forecast: The likelihood of El Nino continuing through February 2027 is put at close to 100 percent, the first time the agency has forecast an event at that degree of certainty.
    4. A possible record: Exceptionally warm Pacific temperatures make this potentially the strongest El Nino since monitoring began.

    What does it mean for India this season?

    1. The monsoon largely escaped: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed that rainfall in the later half of August came under the influence of the developing El Nino. With three fourths of the season over, the monsoon has largely escaped it.
    2. A countervailing signal: A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to develop during September to November, with a seasonal mean value of 0.9 degrees Celsius.
    3. Why the offset matters: A positive Dipole strengthens rainfall over the Indian region and can therefore work against El Nino’s drying influence.
    4. The offset is not assured: The Dipole swung briefly towards the positive phase in late August and then returned to neutral.

    What is the WMO doing about it?

    1. A mobilisation without precedent in the agency: The Secretary General described this as the largest mobilisation with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the WMO’s fifty year history.
    2. Why those agencies: National meteorological services are the bodies that convert a global seasonal outlook into forecasts and warnings people can act on.
    3. Impacts are already visible: Droughts and floods are already causing disruption, and the agency expects these to intensify as the event strengthens.
    4. The recent record: Europe recorded one of its hottest summers in recent decades this year, and August brought record temperatures in many parts of the globe.

    Challenges to acting on an El Nino warning

    1. A seasonal outlook is not a local forecast: El Nino shifts the odds of dry conditions across a season and cannot say what a particular district receives in a particular week. Eg. The 2023 monsoon closed about 6 percent below normal for India as a whole, and several subdivisions still recorded surplus rain.
      The Fix: Issue impact based forecasts at district level that translate the seasonal outlook into expected effects on sowing dates, reservoir filling and power demand.
    2. The Indian Ocean modifies the Pacific signal: El Nino’s effect on the Indian monsoon depends on the state of the Indian Ocean, so an El Nino year is not automatically a drought year. Eg. The 1997 event was among the strongest recorded and the Indian monsoon that year was normal.
      The Fix: Publish the El Nino and Dipole outlooks as one combined regional signal rather than as two separate advisories a user has to reconcile.
    3. Warnings stop short of the last mile: Early warning coverage remains uneven for small farmers and fishing communities who cannot act on a technical bulletin. Eg. The United Nations Early Warnings for All initiative exists because a large share of the world’s population is still not covered by any early warning system.
      The Fix: Route advisories through State agriculture extension and fisheries departments in local languages, tied to one specific recommended action.
    4. Reservoirs are operated on inflows, not on forecasts: Storage decisions respond to water already received, so a deficit is managed only after it has appeared. Eg. Southern region reservoirs stood far below their ten year average through the summer of 2024, after the previous year’s deficient monsoon.
      The Fix: Write seasonal forecasts into reservoir rule curves so storage is conserved in advance of a forecast dry season.
    5. The consequences outlast the monsoon: El Nino affects the rabi season and global crops, so the exposure continues well after the Indian monsoon withdraws. Eg. India restricted rice exports during the 2023 El Nino year on domestic supply concerns.
      The Fix: Set buffer stock and import cover decisions against the forecast horizon rather than against the harvest just completed.

    Conclusion

    The forecast has settled the question of whether the event arrives and left open only what is done before it peaks. India’s monsoon has escaped this season, so the exposure shifts to the rabi crop, to reservoir storage and to the summer that follows. The marker to watch is whether the Indian Ocean Dipole holds its positive phase long enough to blunt the Pacific signal over the region.

    Back2Basics: Indian Ocean Dipole

    1. What it is: The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperature between the western and the eastern parts of the tropical Indian Ocean.
    2. Positive phase: The western Indian Ocean is warmer than the eastern part near Indonesia, which favours stronger rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and East Africa.
    3. Negative phase: The eastern part is warmer, which suppresses rainfall over India and shifts it towards Indonesia and Australia.
    4. How it is tracked: It is measured as the Dipole Mode Index, the temperature gradient between the two poles of the ocean.

    [2017] With reference to ‘Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)’ sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are correct?

    1. IOD phenomenon is characterized by a difference in sea surface temperature between tropical Western Indian Ocean and tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean.

    2. An IOD phenomenon can influence an El Nino’s impact on the monsoon.

    Select the correct answer using the code given below:

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 2 only

    (c) Both 1 and 2

    (d) Neither 1 nor 2

  • After hottest August, bleak outlook for September rain

    After hottest August, bleak outlook for September rain

    Why in the News

    The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast September rainfall at least 9 per cent short of the long period average of 167.9 mm, the average rainfall recorded for that month over several decades against which every seasonal forecast is stated.

    What does the September outlook actually say?

    1. September carries about a fifth of the season’s rain: July contributes 32 per cent and August 29 per cent of the June to September monsoon total.
    2. Some regions are exempt from the deficit call: Parts of northwest, northeast, east and east-central India and isolated areas of southeast peninsular India could receive “normal to above-normal rainfall”.
    3. Temperatures are forecast above normal at both ends: Maximum temperatures are expected above normal over most of India and minimum temperatures above normal over most areas.
    4. Recent Septembers have run against the longer pattern: September rainfall has seen a relative uptick in recent years.
    5. The previous outlook proved accurate: The IMD’s 31 July outlook had indicated below normal rainfall for August over much of the country, and the agency assessed that it matched observations over many regions.

    What made August the hottest since 1901?

    1. The average minimum temperature was the highest on record: It reached 24.36 degrees Celsius for the month.
    2. Rainfall was among the lowest for the month this century: India received 213.3 mm in August, the seventh lowest since 2001.
    3. El Nino is the stated cause: The IMD Director General attributed the heat to the ongoing El Nino, which dries out the atmosphere and raises temperatures.
    4. The month was not uniformly dry: Repeated low pressure systems brought heavy rain across the Indo-Gangetic Plains and parts of central and eastern India.
    5. The warming phase is expected to strengthen: IMD models indicate El Nino conditions will intensify through the remainder of the 2026 southwest monsoon season.

    Why did an unusually long run of low pressure days not lift the rainfall total?

    1. Four systems persisted for 26 days: Low pressure systems, the precursors to cyclonic storms, lasted a combined 26 days in August against a climatological average of 16.3 days.
    2. The systems all took the same track: They formed repeatedly over the Bay of Bengal, moved west-northwest and weakened over central and northern India.
    3. Their rain stayed within one belt: Rainfall activity from those systems was confined to the Indo-Gangetic Plain.
    4. Western Disturbances narrowed the spread further: These extra-tropical storms originating in the Mediterranean interacted with the monsoon circulation and with low pressure and cyclonic circulations. The interaction concentrated intense rainfall over eastern, east-central and parts of northwestern India rather than producing a widespread monsoon revival.

    How uneven has the season been across regions?

    1. Only central India ended August in surplus: Every other region closed the month below its normal cumulative rainfall.
    2. Three large regions carry the shortfall: The northwest, the east and northeast, and the south peninsula all recorded deficits.
    3. The deficit is deepest in the east and the south: The shortfall was particularly pronounced in the east and northeast and in the southern peninsula.
    4. A dry September would land on the same regions: Many parts of the country are expected to remain drier than normal, so the areas already short of rain gain no correction from the final month.

    Challenges to seasonal monsoon forecasting in India

    1. Seasonal skill is weakest exactly where it is needed: A national rainfall percentage carries far more confidence than the district level distribution a farmer sows against. Eg. The August forecast was correct on direction at the national level and did not anticipate that the month’s rain would concentrate on the Indo-Gangetic Plain.
      The Fix: Publish probabilistic district level outlooks with stated confidence intervals alongside the national figure, so an advisory can be issued at the scale sowing decisions are taken.
    2. The benchmark itself shifts: The long period average is recalculated against a moving set of decades, so a deficit against one baseline is not comparable with a deficit against another. Eg. The IMD revised the all-India seasonal normal downward when it updated the reference period, which changed what counted as a normal monsoon year.
      The Fix: Fix a published revision cycle for the normals and report every seasonal figure against both the old and the new baseline in the transition year.
    3. A normal seasonal total conceals destructive intensity: Rainfall delivered in a few heavy spells produces flooding and crop loss even where the season closes at normal. Eg. Kerala in 2018 recorded heavy concentrated spells in August that caused the State’s worst floods in a century.
      The Fix: Report the number of heavy and very heavy rainfall days alongside the seasonal total, so intensity enters the headline measure.
    4. El Nino does not translate into deficit with any reliability: The correlation between a warm Pacific and a weak Indian monsoon holds on average and fails in individual years. Eg. 1997 was among the strongest El Nino years on record and India’s monsoon rainfall that year was normal.
      The Fix: Report the Indian Ocean Dipole state and the Madden-Julian Oscillation phase alongside El Nino, since these are the drivers that offset it.
    5. A rainfall deficit becomes a crop loss through irrigation gaps: Under half of India’s net sown area is irrigated, so a shortfall passes directly into kharif output and food prices. Eg. Marathwada’s consecutive deficit years in 2015 and 2016 emptied reservoirs and forced water to be moved to Latur by rail.
      The Fix: Tie contingency crop planning and seed buffer releases to the mid-season forecast rather than to the end of season assessment.

    Conclusion

    Overall, the September outlook highlights the increasing variability of India’s monsoon. Better regional forecasting, climate monitoring, water management and timely farm advisories can help reduce the impact of rainfall deficits and build greater climate resilience.

    Back2Basics: El Nino Southern Oscillation

    1. What it is: The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the coupled ocean and atmosphere cycle in the tropical Pacific that redistributes rainfall across the tropics on a two to seven year rhythm.
    2. Three phases: El Nino is the warm phase, La Nina the cool phase, and the neutral phase sits between them.
    3. How it is measured: The Oceanic Nino Index tracks sea surface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific Nino 3.4 region, and the Southern Oscillation Index tracks the sea level pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.
    4. Why India tracks it: El Nino years are statistically associated with weaker southwest monsoon rainfall, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole can partly offset that effect.

    “[2015, GS1, 12.5 marks] How far do you agree that the behavior of the Indian monsoon has been changing due to humanizing landscapes? Discuss.”

  • Monsoon revived, but why there’s cloud over the farm

    Why in the News?

    The southwest monsoon’s revival in July, despite a strengthening El Nino, has sharply narrowed the gap in area sown under kharif crops this season. The relief exposes a deeper tension between a recovering kharif and the mounting risks to the rabi season and to food inflation from El Nino’s lagged effect and a surge in global vegetable oil prices.

    Why did a sowing gap open and how did July reverse it?

    1. Weak start: Rainfall in June was 38 percent below the long period average, making it the sixth driest June in India since 1901, with not a single low pressure system forming.
    2. Early shortfall: By 6 July farmers had planted only 350.85 lakh hectares, which was 20.8 percent below the 442.80 lakh hectares sown in the same period of 2025.
    3. July turnaround: In July the country recorded four low pressure systems against a normal of three. These moved slowly, producing about 24 affected days against a normal of 14, lifting all India July rainfall to 2.4 percent above the average.
    4. Recovery: By 7 August the 967.92 lakh hectares covered was only 1.8 percent lower than last year, with the pulses gap down to 1.8 percent, cotton to 0.4 percent, and oilseeds exceeding last year’s level.

    What is El Nino and why does its effect lag?

    1. Definition: El Nino is the abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean off Peru and Ecuador that suppresses monsoon rainfall over India.
    2. Lagged impact: El Nino’s effect on rainfall and temperatures comes with a lag of one to two months and can play out over five to six months or more.
    3. Current phase: It intensified from a weak to moderate phase in June into a moderate to strong event in July, and global agencies expect it to turn very strong during October to December.

    Why is the worst not yet over?

    1. Late kharif needs rain: Crops need rainfall during August and early September for flowering and grain formation that determine yields. Meteorological Department has predicted a fresh low pressure system around 12 August.
    2. Delayed hit: Because El Nino’s rainfall suppressing effect lags, its worst impact is still to come.
    3. Rabi at risk: A strengthening El Nino raises temperatures, and a short warm winter harms wheat, mustard and potato yields, so the real threat is to the rabi season.

    What does the FAO Food Price Index show?

    1. Index high: The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food price index touched 131.1 points in July, up 1 percent from July 2025 and the highest since the 131.4 of January 2023, a three and a half year high. This means food prices are now at their highest level in about 3½ years.
    2. Vegetable oils drive it: The vegetable oils index reached 195.7 points, up 17.3 percent year on year and the highest since June 2022.
    3. Mixed components: The cereals index was 113.8 points, up 6.9 percent, while dairy fell 24.8 percent, sugar fell 8 percent, and meat rose just 0.8 percent.
    4. Causes: The rise is attributed to El Nino, heatwave hit crop yields in Europe, and supply disruptions from conflicts in West Asia and Ukraine.

    Why are vegetable oils the real concern for India?

    1. Import exposure: The combined value of India’s imports of oilseeds, pulses and cotton was close to 25 billion dollars in 2025-26, which El Nino could push to a new high.
    2. Biofuel diversion: Firming vegetable oil prices stem mainly from diversion of palm, rapeseed and soyabean oil toward biofuel as petroleum prices harden.
    3. Fuel substitution: These oils are used to make fatty acid methyl esters, a substitute for petroleum diesel, linking food and fuel markets.
    4. Buffer available: The government held 92.6 million tonnes of rice and wheat on 1 July against a required minimum of 41.1 million tonnes, plus over 4 million tonnes of pulses, which can be offloaded to contain inflation.

    Conclusion

    The July monsoon revival has rescued the kharif season, cutting the sowing gap to under 2 percent even as El Nino strengthened. The central worry has shifted to the rabi season and to food inflation, since El Nino’s temperature and rainfall effects lag and global vegetable oil prices are at multi year highs. Ample public grain stocks give the government room to manage food inflation, but the rabi outlook and edible oil import bill remain the open risks.

    Back2Basics:

    Foundational Context: Climate Change and Food Security

    1. About: Food security means reliable physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food, which climate variability directly threatens.
    2. Tropical vulnerability: Tropical countries face greater exposure because agriculture is rain dependent and heat sensitive.
    3. India context: A large share of India’s cropped area is rainfed, tying output to monsoon performance.
    4. Transmission channels: Erratic rainfall, heat stress, pest incidence and global price shocks each transmit climate risk to food systems.

    FAO Food Price Index

    1. Convening body: Published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
    2. What it measures: A weighted average of world prices of a basket of food commodities against a base period value taken as 100 for 2014 to 2016.
    3. Components: Tracks separate indices for cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat and sugar.
    4. Frequency: Released monthly.
    5. Recent reading: Touched 131.1 points in July, a three and a half year high.

    Government Initiatives for Agriculture and Edible Oils

    1. National Mission on Edible Oils Oil Palm: Mission to raise domestic oil palm and edible oil production and cut import dependence.
    2. PM-AASHA: Umbrella scheme assuring remunerative prices to farmers, especially for oilseeds and pulses.
    3. Price Stabilisation Fund: Buffer stock mechanism to moderate volatility in pulses and other commodities.
    4. Minimum Support Price: Price assurance to encourage sowing of pulses and oilseeds.

    Key Facts about the Monsoon and Kharif Season

    1. Sixth driest June: June 2026 was the sixth driest June since 1901.
    2. July rainfall: All India July rainfall was 2.4 percent above the long period average.
    3. Import bill: Oilseeds, pulses and cotton imports neared 25 billion dollars in 2025-26.
    4. Grain stocks: 92.6 million tonnes of rice and wheat held on 1 July against a 41.1 million tonne minimum.

    Challenges in Indian Agriculture

    1. Rainfall dependence: A large rainfed area leaves output exposed to monsoon swings.
    2. Import reliance: High dependence on imported edible oils and pulses exposes India to global prices.
    3. Climate volatility: El Nino and heatwaves disrupt both kharif and rabi seasons.
    4. Price transmission: Global food and fuel price shocks feed domestic inflation.
    5. Storage and logistics: Post harvest losses and uneven buffer management persist.
    6. Yield gaps: Low productivity in pulses and oilseeds constrains self sufficiency.

    Way Forward

    1. Raise oilseed output: Expand area and yields under the edible oils mission to cut imports.
    2. Diversify cropping: Promote pulses and climate resilient varieties in rainfed regions.
    3. Strengthen buffers: Use public grain and pulse stocks proactively to contain inflation.
    4. Improve forecasting: Sharpen monsoon and El Nino forecasting for sowing decisions.
    5. Invest in irrigation: Extend micro irrigation to reduce rainfall dependence.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2023] Discuss the consequences of climate change on the food security in tropical countries.

    Linkage: The PYQ directly addresses the impact of climate change and climatic variability on food security in tropical countries. El Niño, erratic monsoons, heat stress and global food prices show how climate risks affect India’s kharif, rabi and food inflation.

  • Monsoon revives but El Nino threatens the rabi crop

    Why in the News

    The southwest monsoon has revived, cutting the seasonal deficit to 11.5%, but warns that a possible El Nino threatens the rabi crop and keeps urea supply in focus.

    What is El Nino?

    1. Definition: El Nino is the abnormal warming of the central and eastern Pacific that weakens the Indian monsoon and disrupts rainfall.
    2. Crop link: A weak or erratic monsoon reduces soil moisture and reservoir storage needed for the winter rabi crop.

    Why does the rabi outlook matter?

    1. Food and prices: Wheat and other rabi crops shape food inflation and buffer stocks.
    2. Input dependence: Adequate urea and irrigation are needed to protect rabi output if rainfall falters.
    3. Recovery is partial: A narrowed deficit does not remove the risk that late-season El Nino conditions bring.

    Conclusion

    A recovering monsoon eases the kharif outlook but leaves rabi exposed to El Nino. The next milestone is confirmation of El Nino conditions before the rabi season.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2015]How far do you agree that the behavior of the Indian monsoon has been changing due to humanizing landscapes? Discuss.

    Linkage: The PYQ explores changing monsoon behaviour and its impact on Indian agriculture. El Niño-induced rainfall variability shows how climatic and human factors can alter monsoon patterns and crop outcomes.

  • Gujarat deluge erases monsoon deficit, but overall rain still low

    Why in News?

    Heavy rainfall in Gujarat erased India’s July rainfall deficit, but the overall southwest monsoon (June-September) remains below normal.

    Key Highlights

    • Cumulative rainfall since 1 June is 16.1% below normal.
    • East & Northeast India: 31.9% rainfall deficit.
    • South Peninsula: 26.8% deficit.
    • Heavy rainfall in Gujarat resulted from a low-pressure system interacting with a Western Disturbance.
    • Over 40,500 people were evacuated and 6,367 rescued due to flooding.
    • Ahmedabad recorded 294.6 mm rainfall in 24 hours, its highest since 2000.
    • Weak El Niño conditions have contributed to uneven monsoon distribution, affecting agriculture.

    El Niño

    • Warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
    • Characterised by warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Generally leads to weaker southwest monsoon and below-normal rainfall in India.

    IMD Classification of Rainfall

    • Normal: 96% to 104% of Long Period Average (LPA).
    • Below Normal: 90% to 96% of LPA.
    • Deficient: Less than 90% of LPA.

    Southwest Monsoon

    • Contributes nearly 75% of India’s annual rainfall.
    • Normally spans June to September.
    • Two branches:
      • Arabian Sea Branch
      • Bay of Bengal Branch

    PYQ (2014, GS1, 10 Marks) Most of the unusual climatic happenings are explained as an outcome of the El Niño effect. Do you agree?
    [2020] With reference to Ocean Mean Temperature (OMT), which of the following statements is/are correct?

    1.OMT is measured up to a depth of 26ºC isotherm which is 129 meters in the south-western Indian Ocean during January-March.
    2.OMT collected during January-March can be used in assessing whether the amount of rainfall in monsoon will be less or more than a certain long-term mean.
    Select the correct answer using the code given below:
    a) 1 only
    b) 2 only
    c) Both 1 and 2
    d) Neither 1 nor 2

  • Behind Europe’s heatwave, cliamte change the culprit

    Why in the News?

    A World Weather Attribution (WWA) study has confirmed climate change as the unequivocal cause of the ongoing European heatwave, which has broken or is forecast to break historic heat-stress records in 45% of 854 cities analysed. The finding sharpens a wider gap between the certainty climate science now offers and the declining political priority accorded to climate action.

    What does the WWA study establish about the causal role of climate change in the current heatwave?

    1. Unequivocal attribution: WWA found climate change, not the El Niño phenomenon or any other factor, responsible for the European heatwave.
    2. Recurrence pattern: This is the third severe heatwave to grip Europe in five years, after 2022 and 2023.
    3. Mortality scale: More than 1,300 excess deaths have been recorded since 21 June; over 1,00,000 people are estimated to have died from extreme heat across 2022 and 2023.
    4. Probability shift: Record-breaking night-time highs are nearly 100 times more likely now than in 2003; daytime peak temperatures are nearly 10 times more likely.
    5. Historical baseline broken: Temperature records being broken were set in 1976; the current daytime and overnight highs would have been virtually impossible to occur as recently as 1976.
    6. ENSO ruled out: The El Niño Southern Oscillation phase played no role in driving the heat during this spell.

    Why has climate attribution science become central to fixing responsibility for extreme weather events?

    1. Definition: Climate attribution is the scientific discipline that determines how much human-caused global warming influences the probability and intensity of specific extreme weather events. It quantifies how much worse or more likely a particular flood, heatwave, or drought has become compared to a hypothetical world without human-driven emissions
    2. Function: Attribution science tests the likelihood of a specific extreme weather event occurring if climate change were not taking place.
    3. Recency: The discipline has developed only over the last two decades.
    4. Speed gain: Assessments earlier took months or years; WWA’s methods now produce findings within days, even while an event is still ongoing.
    5. Purpose: The science removes ambiguity and fixes the exact extent of climate change’s responsibility for an event.
    6. Scientific caution without it: Scientists are otherwise wary of linking any individual extreme weather event to climate change without a dedicated attribution study.
    7. Policy intent: Beyond generating evidence, attribution studies are designed to force policymakers to act faster on climate change.

    Does scientific certainty on climate attribution translate into proportionate political action?

    1. Evidence-action gap: Scientific evidence on climate change is already voluminous and compelling, yet climate change has dropped down the list of global priorities.
    2. Political trigger: The decline has sharpened particularly after Donald Trump took office as US President.
    3. Forum evidence: Recent G7 meetings have carried little or no climate-related agenda or outcomes.
    4. Reversal of salience: Climate change was earlier among the most prominent items at international meetings involving influential leaders; this prominence has receded.
    5. Target abandonment: Scientists maintain the Paris Agreement targets of containing global temperature rise within 1.5°C to 2°C remain achievable, but governments treat them as effectively out of reach.
    6. Reframing of feasibility: Governments are treating the required resource mobilisation as politically impractical rather than scientifically unattainable.

    What risk does the global shift from mitigation to adaptation pose?

    1. Strategic shift: Countries are increasingly choosing to let climate change play out and to adapt to its impacts rather than prevent it.
    2. Scientific objection: Scientists routinely warn against adaptation as a substitute for mitigation.
    3. Inherent limits: Adaptation has limits beyond which impacts cannot be absorbed.
    4. Trend trajectory: Events such as the European heatwave are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity over coming years.
    5. Displacement, not resolution: The shift to adaptation transfers the climate risk from prevention to adaptation capacity rather than resolving it.

    Conclusion

    Climate attribution science has removed the scientific ambiguity once used to avoid linking individual extreme weather events to climate change. The European heatwave attribution exposes a widening gap between scientific certainty and political will, as global climate governance deprioritises mitigation. Countries are substituting adaptation for prevention despite scientists’ warnings that adaptation carries inherent limits. Closing this evidence-action gap is now central to achieving the Paris Agreement targets.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2017] ‘Climate Change’ is a global problem. How India will be affected by climate change? How Himalayan and coastal states of India will be affected by climate change?

    Linkage: The PYQ xamines the impacts of climate change and the need for mitigation and adaptation strategies. The article uses the European heatwave as scientific evidence that climate change is intensifying extreme weather events and highlights the growing gap between climate science and political action.

  • In dry monsoon, a test of resilience

    Why in the News?

    India’s 2025 monsoon season is forecast to be the weakest in a decade, with 77% of the country’s land area already recording more than 20% rainfall deficit as of June 24. The season has exposed a structural tension: India’s agricultural and energy systems remain deeply dependent on monsoon rainfall. At the same time, the government’s own investments in renewables, rainwater harvesting, and rural employment infrastructure suggest the country may now be better placed to absorb the stress than in any previous deficit year.

    What Has Made the 2025 Deficit Structurally Different from Past Deficits?

    1. Scale of the deficit: As of June 24, 537 of 740 districts recorded over 20% rainfall deficit. Only eight of 36 States/UTs showed no deficiency. IMD forecast low to moderate rainfall across nearly half of India’s landmass.
    2. El Niño is not the primary cause: El Niño emerged in early June, too late to explain the June deficit because its impact on the Indian monsoon occurs with a lag. The dominant driver is the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO).
    3. MJO as the proximate driver: A moving system of winds and clouds that alternately enhances or suppresses rainfall. In June, its rain-suppressing phase remained over India, with a shift expected in early July.
    4. June is ordinarily a high-rainfall month: IMD had forecast at least 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall for June. The actual deficit of over 40% marks a significant departure from expectations.
    5. The La Niña lag: La Niña’s favourable impact on the Indian monsoon also occurs with a lag and was unlikely to influence June rainfall. This raises the possibility of a drier-than-expected monsoon season.

    What Is the Nature of India’s Dependence on the Monsoon and What Has Reduced It?

    1. The baseline dependence: The southwest monsoon provides nearly 75% of India’s annual rainfall. It supports irrigation, groundwater recharge, reservoirs, hydropower, agriculture, food security, rural incomes and economic growth.
    2. Infrastructure investments over a decade: India has expanded irrigation, rainwater harvesting, water storage and conservation. Official reports also show improving groundwater levels.
    3. Renewable energy as the decisive structural shift: Solar and wind power have reduced dependence on hydropower, which relies on reservoir storage. This helps preserve water for irrigation and drinking purposes.
    4. The residual dependence: Better resilience reduces stress but does not eliminate the need for planning and policy intervention.
    5. Rural employment as a demand buffer: MGNREGS has created water conservation and storage assets while providing income support to rural households during rainfall deficits, helping stabilise rural demand.

    What Existing Strengths Make Absorption of the 2025 Deficit Possible?

    1. Major reservoirs at good storage levels: Good rainfall over the last two years has kept reservoir storage comfortable, reducing immediate pressure on irrigation, drinking water and hydropower.
    2. Improvement in groundwater situation: Better groundwater levels provide an additional irrigation source where reservoir supplies become constrained.
    3. Renewable energy reducing reservoir pressure: Expansion of solar and wind power lowers dependence on hydropower, allowing reservoirs to conserve water despite weak monsoon inflows.
    4. Pre-monsoon rainfall altering farmer behaviour: Early forecasts encouraged many farmers to sow kharif crops using pre-monsoon showers, reducing exposure to the subsequent rainfall deficit.
    5. The limits of absorption: Resilience has improved but remains incomplete, requiring continued policy intervention.

    Where Does Resilience End and Vulnerability Begin? 

    1. The central tension: India has strengthened resilience, but climate change is making monsoon deficits more frequent, prolonged and unpredictable, testing existing adaptation measures.
    2. Quantitative unpredictability now exceeds planning assumptions: Climate change is making even good monsoon years less predictable, weakening the idea of a stable “normal monsoon.” The 2025 deficit could represent a recurring pattern rather than an exception.
    3. Hydropower remains a structural vulnerability: Solar and wind reduce dependence on hydropower but cannot replace it entirely. Reservoir shortages during weak monsoons can still affect electricity generation and grid stability.
    4. Agricultural productivity remains rainfall-sensitive: Investments in water conservation reduce drought impacts but cannot fully break agriculture’s dependence on monsoon performance, leaving food security vulnerable during prolonged deficits.
    5. Rural demand suppression risk persists: Poor monsoons lower farm incomes and rural demand. MGNREGS mitigates this impact but cannot fully offset a season-long rainfall deficit.

    What Must India Do That It Has Not Yet Done?

    1. The policy direction is defined: Developing greater climate resilience remains the only long-term solution, as monsoon behaviour cannot be controlled
    2. Quantitative rainfall forecasting must improve: More accurate district-level and sub-seasonal forecasts are essential for planning crop calendars, reservoir operations and water storage.
    3. The transition from input-side to output-side resilience: Investments in storage, groundwater recharge and renewables must translate into stable farm output, rural incomes and food prices during rainfall shocks.
    4. Climate adaptation must be recalibrated to current trajectories, not historical averages: Adaptation must continuously evolve because climate conditions are changing faster than the historical benchmarks used for planning.

    Conclusion

    India’s improved groundwater levels, major reservoir storage, and renewable energy capacity mean that a decade-worst monsoon need not produce a decade-worst crisis. However, the reduction in monsoon dependence is partial. Hydropower reliance persists, agricultural productivity remains rainfall-sensitive, and climate change is making deficits more frequent, longer, and harder to predict. Resilience built for last decade’s weather is already being outpaced by this decade’s climate.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2023] Why is the South-West monsoon called ‘Purvaiya’ (easterly) in Bhojpur Region? How has this directional seasonal wind system influenced the cultural ethos of the region?

    Linkage: The PYQ tests understanding of the South-West Monsoon and its significance. The article moves beyond monsoon mechanics to examine how changing monsoon behaviour is reshaping India’s climate resilience.

  • Most of the unusual climatic happenings are explained as an outcome of the El-Nino effect. Do you agree?

  • How far do you agree that the behavior of the Indian monsoon has been changing due to humanizing landscapes? Discuss.

  • What characteristics can be assigned to monsoon climate that succeeds in feeding more than 50 percent of the world population residing in Monsoon Asia?