Why in the News
US President Donald Trump has allowed imports of Russian diesel until April 2027, after a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Weeks earlier he had signed a law allowing tariffs of up to 100% on countries such as India that buy Russian oil. The move revives a second “G2”, a US-Russia accommodation India has fewer reasons to fear than a US-China one.
What is the “other G2”, and why has diesel revived it?
- What it is: G2 means two great powers settling major questions between themselves, like two dominant shareholders running a company. India fears a US-China G2 dominating Asia.
- The other G2: A US-Russia strategic accommodation is the second possibility.
- Domestic trigger: With diesel above $6 a gallon and inflation hanging over the 3 November congressional elections, cheaper fuel for farmers and truckers is an urgent priority in Washington.
- Exemption for itself: Having carved out a diesel exemption for itself, Washington may hesitate to impose fresh oil sanctions on India.
- The takeaway: US domestic needs can soften its Russia policy, which can reduce the friction India’s Russian partnership creates with Washington.
How has Washington pursued a thaw with Moscow?
- First term record: Trump pressed for Russia’s return to the G8, which suspended it after the 2014 annexation of Crimea. At Helsinki in 2018 he resisted calling Russia an adversary.
- Second term outreach: Talks in Riyadh in February 2025 reopened high level engagement. Russia’s investment envoy then offered openings in energy, Arctic development and minerals.
- Summits so far: The Alaska summit of August 2025 failed to end the war, and US envoys met Putin in Moscow last month.
- Meetings ahead: The two may meet at the November Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, possibly with China’s President. Moscow has yet to accept an invitation to December’s G20 summit in Miami.
What does each side want, and what stands in the way?
- Commerce first: Trump wants economic cooperation to open a path to peace rather than follow a settlement, betting that profitable ventures soften political antagonism.
- Putin’s incentives: Sanctions relief brings revenue, investment and technology, and engagement restores standing and reduces dependence on China. A settlement recognising territorial gains would let him claim victory.
- US domestic resistance: If Democrats regain Congress, or even the House, they could use investigations, sanctions laws and spending control to obstruct a rapprochement. Republican opposition to concessions adds a constraint.
- Ukraine and Europe: Ukraine will resist a bargain that rewards invasion. Europeans fear a deal could leave them exposed to Russian assertion.
What three lessons follow for India?
- Fluid great power ties: A US-Russia thaw could ease American pressure on India’s Russian energy purchases and defence ties, so Delhi should weigh its opportunities as carefully as its costs.
- No ideological obligation: Moscow does not treat confrontation with Washington as an ideological duty, and values engagement with it as a great power peer. Eg. In the early 1990s, its eagerness for US ties pushed India down its priorities.
- Europe’s weight: India’s trade, technology, investment and defence stakes in Europe have risen, and Russia’s confrontation with Europe could outlast any US-Russia deal.
Challenges
- Russia-China closeness: Russia’s “no limits” partnership with China limits its neutrality in India-China disputes.
- Payment hurdles: Western sanctions complicate settling India-Russia trade. Eg. Over $40 billion in rupees stuck in Russian banks’ Vostro accounts.
- The Ukraine dilemma: India must balance US partnership expectations, ties with Moscow and distance from a Sino-Russian axis.
Way Forward
- Contribute to Ukraine peace: Delhi should help wherever it can.
- Russia-Europe dialogue: Encourage direct talks between Russia and Europe on ending the war and on a lasting European and Eurasian security order.
- Rupee reinvestment: Encourage Russia to reinvest its rupee surplus in Indian infrastructure to balance trade.
Conclusion
A US-Russia accommodation would meet only part of India’s needs, because Europe’s security, where India’s stake is now larger, would stay unsettled. Another meeting of the two Presidents and the US Congress’s response are the markers to watch.
About India-Russia Relations
- Strategic partnership: Ties were elevated to a “special and privileged strategic partnership” in 2010.
- Defence dependence: Russia’s share of Indian arms imports fell from 70% to under 45% in a decade, but it remains India’s largest defence partner.
- Trade: Bilateral trade crossed $68 billion in 2025, driven by oil, defence and fertilisers.
- Trade target: The latest annual summit set a goal of $100 billion in trade by 2030.
Matching Previous Year Question
“[2025, GS2, 10 marks] With the waning of globalization, post-Cold War world is becoming a site of sovereign nationalism. Elucidate.”
