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Subject: International Relations

  • India resets ties with Bangladesh and invites its new leader to the BRICS Summit

    Why in the News

    India distanced itself from former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s public event in Delhi while inviting Bangladesh’s new leader to the 18th BRICS Summit in his capacity as BIMSTEC Chair, signalling a recalibration of ties with Dhaka.

    What is BIMSTEC?

    • Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a regional organization established in 1997 to promote economic, technical, and security cooperation in the Bay of Bengal region.
    • Members: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand
    • Secretariat: Dhaka, Bangladesh.

    What is the BRICS Outreach Session?

    • A special session where BRICS invites leaders of regional organizations and partner countries.
    • Bangladesh was invited in its capacity as the current BIMSTEC Chair.

    Why is India Recalibrating Ties?

    • Relations changed after Bangladesh’s political transition.
    • India has resumed engagement with the new government through diplomatic outreach and restoration of visa services.
    • Distancing from Sheikh Hasina’s event signals neutrality toward Bangladesh’s internal politics.

    Challenges in India-Bangladesh Relations

    • Anti-India sentiment in sections of Bangladeshi society.
    • Sheikh Hasina’s presence in India.
    • Teesta River water-sharing dispute.
    • Border management, smuggling, and illegal migration.
    • Security of minorities.
    • Growing Chinese strategic and economic influence in Bangladesh.

    [2026] Match List I (BIMSTEC Centre) with List II (Location):
    A. BIMSTEC Cultural Industries Observatory
    B. BIMSTEC Energy Centre
    C. BIMSTEC Centre for Weather and Climate
    D. BIMSTEC Technology Transfer Facility
    1. NOIDA 2. Bengaluru 3. Colombo 4. Thimphu
    (a) A-3, B-2, C-1, D-4
    (b) A-3, B-1, C-2, D-4
    (c) A-4, B-2, C-1, D-3
    (d) A-4, B-1, C-2, D-3

  • India Japan mobility deepens through the Specified Skilled Worker route and Assam semiconductors

    Why in the News?

    Youth from India’s Northeast are training as caregivers and agriculture workers for an ageing Japan under the Specified Skilled Worker (SSW) programme. This channels India’s demographic surplus into Japan’s labour shortage and links mobility to investment such as Japanese financed projects and the Assam semiconductor ecosystem.

    What is the Specified Skilled Worker (SSW) programme?

    1. Residence status from 2019: Japan introduced the SSW status of residence in 2019 to let blue collar foreign workers obtain a working visa for up to five years.
    2. Eligibility: Applicants must pass a Japanese language test and a specified skills exam in one of 16 fields, including nursing care, food and beverage manufacturing and industrial products.

    What is Official Development Assistance (ODA) through JICA?

    1. JICA loans: The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) is Japan’s development agency that extends concessional ODA loans for infrastructure and social projects.
    2. Northeast footprint: JICA finances road corridors in Meghalaya, health facilities in Mizoram, Nagaland and Assam, and is joining Assam’s semiconductor ambitions.

    What is the A-SEMI project?

    1. Assam semiconductor ecosystem: The Assam Semiconductor Ecosystem on Manufacturing and Innovation (A-SEMI) is a state government project with JICA, alongside Tata Electronics’ assembly and testing facility expected to begin production this year.
    2. Research linkage: A Japanese firm signed a memorandum with IIT Guwahati for collaborative research in semiconductor manufacturing.

    Why is Japan turning to foreign workers?

    1. The 2040 problem: Japan’s working population is projected to fall from 66.34 million in 2025 to 55.42 million in 2040, threatening severe labour shortages.
    2. Ageing pressure: By 2040 there will be three seniors aged 65 and above for every teenager under 15.
    3. Scaled intake: Japan expects to accept 8.05 lakh Specified Skill Workers by the end of March 2029, with highest demand in industrial manufacturing, food and beverages and nursing care.

    How does this pathway serve India and the Northeast?

    1. Remittances: A caregiver in Japan can send home Rs 50,000 to Rs 60,000 a month, far above local nursing wages of around Rs 15,000.
    2. State backing: Assam subsidises SSW training fees, Manipur University opened a Japanese Language Centre, and Mizoram signed agreements with training centres.
    3. Cultural affinity: Widespread interest in Japanese media and easier physical assimilation draw young people from the region into the programme.

    Where does India stand among Japan’s foreign workforce?

    1. China leads: China was the largest foreign resident group in Japan at the end of 2025 with 9.3 lakh residents.
    2. Ahead of India: Vietnam, South Korea, the Philippines and Nepal all rank above India in resident numbers.
    3. India’s small slice: There were 53,974 Indian nationals in Japan as of December 2024, a fraction of the foreign worker pool.
    4. The joint target: India and Japan set an aspirational target of exchanging more than 5,00,000 personnel in both directions over five years, including 50,000 skilled personnel from India.

    What are the challenges to India Japan labour mobility?

    1. Language barrier: School level Japanese proves inadequate for daily workplace use, slowing settlement and placement.
    2. Migration safeguards: Ensuring legal, documented channels is essential to prevent exploitation of workers moving abroad.
    3. Skill drain: Trained nurses and caregivers leaving India can deepen shortages in the Northeast’s own health system.
    4. Small scale: Placement numbers remain nascent relative to Japan’s demand and India’s demographic potential.
    5. Isolation and costs: New arrivals face social loneliness and heavy documentation and relocation costs before earning.
    6. Certification bottlenecks: Delays such as the Certificate of Eligibility can stall departures despite cleared exams.

    Conclusion

    India Japan mobility is at an early but expanding stage, with the SSW route, JICA financed projects and the A-SEMI semiconductor plan tying labour flows to investment. The next milestone is the launch of the A-SEMI project and progress towards the joint target of 5,00,000 personnel over five years, alongside Japan’s planned intake of 8.05 lakh Specified Skill Workers by March 2029.

    Back2Basics:

    Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

    1. Type: Japan’s governmental agency for delivering Official Development Assistance (ODA).
    2. Headquarters: Tokyo, Japan.
    3. Mandate: Provides concessional loans, grants and technical cooperation for infrastructure and social development in partner countries.
    4. India role: A major bilateral development partner financing metro rail, connectivity, health and industrial projects, including in the Northeast.

  • The race for the next UN Secretary General and the UNSC straw poll

    Why in the News?

    The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) held its first straw poll to choose the next United Nations Secretary General (UNSG), whose five year term begins on 1 January 2027. The exercise exposed that the outcome turns on acceptability to the five permanent members and their veto, not on multilateral merit.

    How is the UN Secretary General appointed?

    1. Article 97 of the UN Charter: The Secretary General is appointed by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council.
    2. Security Council primacy: The Council forwards a single name to the General Assembly for endorsement, giving it decisive control over the choice.

    What is the process for candidate nomination and campaigning?

    1. Public hearings: Candidates present their vision statements in the General Assembly for transparency and answer questions from member states (informal dialogues)
    2. Joint letter: The UNSC President and the UNGA President will jointly write a formal letter to all member states asking them to nominate candidates.
    3. Nominations: Member States officially submit the names of their candidates, including their biodata.

    What is a straw poll?

    1. Secret ballot: The 15-nation Security Council (UNSC) conducts a series of secret ballots (Straw Polls) to assess the strength of the candidates.
    2. Voting options: UNSC members mark slips carrying a candidate’s name as encourage, discourage, or no opinion, without disclosing which state voted how.
    3. Signalling a veto: In later rounds the slips of the permanent members are coloured, so a coloured discourage slip indicates a likely veto by a permanent member.
    4. Minimum votes: A candidate must receive at least 9 positive votes and no vetoes from the P5 countries to be elected
    5. Single name: The Security Council finalizes the name of a single candidate and recommends it to the General Assembly by secret resolution

    Who are the five permanent members that decide the outcome?

    1. The P5: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States hold permanent seats with veto power.
    2. Non permanent members: Ten members are elected for two year terms by the General Assembly, giving the Council 15 members in total.

    How is the approval given by the General Assembly?

    1. Final vote: The General Assembly (UNGA), which has 193 member states, will vote on the name sent by the Security Council.
    2. Majority: Usually this option is approved unanimously or by a simple majority.
    3. Term of Office: The elected Secretary General will be appointed for a term of 5 years. They will be eligible for re-election

    Why do the permanent members dominate the selection?

    1. The consensus threshold: Repeated straw polls run until one candidate secures nine encourage slips and no coloured discourage slip, meaning support of the majority and no veto.
    2. Acceptability over merit: Success may go not to the strongest diplomatic candidate but to one acceptable to all five permanent members.
    3. Great power divergence: The three front runners enjoy good relations with the United States, yet China and Russia may hold their own views that reshape the field.

    Who are the front runners and what regional logic applies?

    1. Regional rotation: With the current holder from Portugal and predecessors from Asia and Africa, expectation favours a candidate from Latin America.
    2. A woman contender: No woman has held the post, strengthening the case for a female Latin American candidate.
    3. Leading names: The head of UN Trade and Development from Costa Rica, Guyana’s Permanent Representative, and the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from Argentina scored well.
    4. Open field: There is no bar on new entrants, so more candidates may emerge as the process unfolds.

    What are the challenges to the UNSG selection process

    1. Opaque bargaining: Decisive negotiations occur privately among the P5, limiting the General Assembly to endorsement.
    2. Veto capture: A single permanent member can block the most qualified candidate through a coloured discourage slip.
    3. Underrepresentation: Regions such as Latin America have never held the post, exposing a persistent geographic imbalance.
    4. Limited transparency reforms: Public candidate hearings introduced in recent cycles have not displaced the closed straw poll as the real gatekeeper.
    5. Great power rivalry: East and West divisions within the P5 can deadlock the choice and force compromise candidates.
    6. No fixed criteria: The absence of binding qualifications lets geopolitical acceptability outweigh administrative competence.

    Conclusion

    The next Secretary General will be selected through a Security Council process where the veto makes acceptability to the P5 the decisive test. Straw polling has begun with Latin American front runners, and further rounds with coloured slips will reveal whether any candidate can clear the veto threshold before the term begins on 1 January 2027.

    Back2Basics:

    United Nations Security Council (UNSC)

    1. Formation Year: 1945.
    2. Headquarters: New York City, United States.
    3. Mandate: Primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security.
    4. Composition: 15 members; 5 permanent members (United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China) with veto power and 10 non permanent members elected for two year terms.
    5. Powers: Can authorise peacekeeping, sanctions, military action and the admission of new UN members.

    Role of UN- Secretary General

    The Secretary-General of the United Nations acts as the chief administrative officer, global diplomat, and spokesperson for the organization. Current officeholder António Guterres leads the United Nations by managing daily operations, mediating global conflicts, and bringing threats to international peace to the Security Council.

    Administrative Duties

    1. Manages the UN Secretariat and its global staff.
    2. Prepares the organization’s budget and handles financial administration.
    3. Appoints top UN officials and staff members.

    Diplomatic and Political Role

    1. Mediates disputes between member nations.
    2. Warns the Security Council about any crisis that may threaten world peace.
    3. Serves as a neutral global moral voice and public advocate for vulnerable people

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2025] The reform process in the United Nations remains unresolved, because of the delicate imbalance of East and West and entanglement of the USA vs. Russo-Chinese alliance. Examine and critically evaluate the East-West policy confrontations in this regard.

    Linkage: The question examines how East-West rivalry and P5 politics have stalled reforms in the United Nations. The UNSG selection process reflects this unresolved power imbalance, as the P5 veto and geopolitical bargaining outweigh merit in choosing the UN Secretary-General.

  • NATO enters a new strategic era as burden shifts to Europe and openings emerge for India

    Why in the News

    The 36th North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit held in Ankara (July 2026) highlighted a shift in transatlantic security, with the United States (US) urging European allies to take greater responsibility for conventional defence, allowing Washington to focus more on the Indo-Pacific.

    What is NATO?

    • North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military alliance established in 1949 under the Washington Treaty.
    • Based on collective defence under Article 5, where an attack on one member is considered an attack on all.
    • Members: 32 countries (including Finland and Sweden).

    Key Developments

    • US expects European allies to assume primary responsibility for conventional defence.
    • Greater emphasis on burden-sharing through higher defence spending.
    • US continues as NATO’s: Nuclear guarantor. Strategic enabler. Political leader.

    Evolution of NATO

    • NATO 1.0 (1949-1991): Cold War; deterrence against the Soviet Union.
    • NATO 2.0 (1991-2022): Eastward expansion and operations in the Balkans and Afghanistan.
    • NATO 3.0 (2022 onwards): Europe strengthens conventional defence while the US focuses increasingly on the Indo-Pacific.

    Significance for India

    • Greater US strategic focus on the Indo-Pacific.
    • Enhanced opportunities for India-Europe cooperation in: Defence manufacturing. Artificial Intelligence (AI). Cybersecurity. Semiconductors. Space technology.
    • Supports India’s strategic autonomy through diversified partnerships.

    Challenges

    • Burden-sharing disagreements among NATO members.
    • Europe’s dependence on US military capabilities.
    • Industrial capacity constraints.
    • Continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
    • Simultaneous security commitments in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

    Value Addition

    Article 5: The cornerstone of NATO, providing collective defence. It has been invoked only once, after the 11 September 2001 (9/11) terrorist attacks on the United States.

    Article 10: Allows European states to join NATO by unanimous agreement of existing members.

    • NATO and India
      • India is not a NATO member.
      • India engages with several NATO members through bilateral defence cooperation while maintaining strategic autonomy.

    “[2024] Consider the following pairs:
    Country : Reason for being in the news
    1. Argentina : Worst economic crisis
    2. Sudan : War between the country’s regular army and paramilitary forces
    3. Turkey : Rescinded its membership of NATO
    How many of the pairs given above are correctly matched?
    (a) Only one pair
    (b) Only two pairs
    (c) All three pairs
    (d) None of the pairs

  • Why has Pakistan-occupied Kashmir erupted in protests?

    Why in the News?

    Simmering discontent over inflation and opaque governance in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) has escalated into a violent security crackdown. The Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JKJAAC) is leading opposition to a three-phase election and to 12 seats reserved for refugees in the 53-seat legislature. The unrest exposes the gap between an establishment-backed electoral process and a local demand for genuine political representation.

    Who are the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JKJAAC)?

    1. The JKJAAC is an alliance of civil society groups leading the protest movement in PoK. It has been protesting in Rawalakot, Muzaffarabad, and other locations.
    2. Demand: It seeks a more representative political system and removal of the reserved seats. It alleges the current election process is rigged.

    What is Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK)?

    1. Definition: PoK is the part of the former princely State of Jammu and Kashmir under Pakistan’s control since 1947. India regards it as territory under illegal occupation.
    2. Two Regions: Pakistan administers the area as Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan.
    3. India’s position: The Ministry of External Affairs maintains that the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh are integral and inalienable parts of India. It asserts Pakistan is in illegal and forcible occupation and considers local laws or elections void.

    How did a price protest become a movement for representation?

    1. Origins: The movement emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic to curb the prices of essential items. It evolved over the years into a protest against the lack of local political representation.
    2. Legislature structure: The PoK legislature has 53 seats, of which 45 are elected and 8 are nominated. Of the 45 elected seats, 12 are reserved for refugees of Indian Jammu and Kashmir who migrated after 1947.
    3. Grievance over reserved seats: Voters for these 12 seats cast ballots from outside PoK. Locals claim the reserved seats reduce regional representation and let Islamabad override local concerns.
    4. Escalation: The JKJAAC called a “long march” after authorities proceeded with the election without addressing the demand. The protest gained momentum after a PhD scholar was reportedly killed in police firing in Rawalakot.

    Why is Islamabad’s relationship with PoK strained?

    1. Developmental neglect: Mainstream parties have not met the region’s developmental aspirations. Locals allege long-standing neglect by Islamabad.
    2. Inflammatory rhetoric: The Pakistan Defence Minister called the protesters “enemies just like Indians”. The remark inflamed public sentiment.
    3. Parallel with other regions: The complaints echo those long voiced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Both regions have seen protests and insurgencies for decades.
    4. Rigging allegations: The second phase of polling drew allegations of irregularities. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz swept the phase, enabling it to form the regional government.

    How have India and international actors responded?

    1. India’s condemnation: The Ministry of External Affairs blamed the Pakistani establishment for the deaths of over 40 civilians. It called the ongoing polls a cosmetic exercise to camouflage illegal occupation.
    2. JKJAAC’s distancing: The committee rejected any Indian attempt to appropriate the movement. It stated the civil rights movement is neither a proxy nor an extension of interstate rivalries.
    3. Amnesty International: Amnesty urged Pakistan to restore communications access and allow media and independent observers. It responded to a communication blackout in PoK.
    4. United Kingdom diaspora: Non-resident Mirpuri Kashmiris with a strong presence in the UK began an online campaign. It urges restraint on Pakistan’s security establishment.

    Conclusion

    The unrest reflects a contest between an establishment-managed election and a local movement rejecting its political basis. The current status is a continuing three-phase poll amid a deadly crackdown and a communication blackout. Whether the protests subside depends on whether Islamabad addresses the demand over reserved seats, which it has so far refused.

    Back2Basics

    1. PoK: Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, part of the former princely State of Jammu and Kashmir under Pakistan’s control since 1947; India treats it as illegally occupied territory.
    2. Legislature: The PoK assembly has 53 seats, 45 elected and 8 nominated, with 12 elected seats reserved for post-1947 refugees.
    3. Line of Control: The military control line dividing Indian and Pakistani-administered Kashmir, formalised after the Shimla Agreement of 1972.
    4. India’s stance: The Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh are integral parts of India, with Pakistan in illegal and forcible occupation of parts of them.

  • India cushions energy security against the Strait of Hormuz disruption

    Why in the News?

    India’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports rose despite disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz during the West Asia conflict. Imports were diversified to the United States, Nigeria, Oman, and Angola as supply from Qatar collapsed. The Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) will also reserve half its Mangaluru facility as a strategic petroleum reserve, exposing the link between supply diversification and physical storage in energy security.

    What is the Strait of Hormuz?

    1. The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It is a critical energy chokepoint.
    2. Strategic weight: The strait usually carries about a fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. Its disruption during the conflict threatened a large share of India’s gas supply.

    What is Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)?

    1. Definition: LNG is natural gas cooled to liquid form for transport by ship over long distances. It is regasified at import terminals for use.
    2. India’s dependence: LNG imports meet about half of India’s natural gas requirement. Around 60% of those imports came through the Strait of Hormuz, mainly from Qatar and the UAE.

    How did India cushion the disruption?

    1. Higher overall imports: LNG imports in May-July rose 15.4% year-on-year to 7.08 million tonnes. This followed a near 13% dip in March-April, the first two months of the war.
    2. Supplier diversification: The United States supplied 2.19 million tonnes, up sharply year-on-year. Oman, Nigeria and Angola also rose steeply.
    3. Russian Crude: Russia increased its share to supply roughly 40% of India’s crude imports, bypassing the Hormuz chokepoint entirely.
    4. Collapse of traditional sources: Supply from Qatar plunged 91.3% to 0.23 million tonnes, against a monthly average of 1 million tonnes in 2025. UAE fell 34.4% to 0.55 million tonnes.
    5. Supply over price: India prioritised securing volumes over price to meet demand from city gas, fertiliser, power, and ceramics. LNG prices are expected to stay high, near 19 to 20 dollars per million British thermal units.
    6. Infrastructure Adaptability: West coast terminals like Mundra handled very large crude carriers (VLCCs) from non-Middle Eastern channels.
    7. Ethanol Blending: E20 petrol implementation reduced overall crude import demand by substituting 20% of domestic petrol with local ethanol.

    What is a Strategic Petroleum Reserve?

    1. Definition: A strategic petroleum reserve is a stockpile of crude oil held to cushion supply shocks and price spikes. It is drawn down during import disruptions.
    2. ONGC facility: ONGC is developing a 1.75 million metric tonne facility at Mangaluru. Half of this storage will be reserved as strategic storage, with the rest for commercial operations.
    3. Current buffer: India’s existing crude and petroleum product storage can meet about 74 days of net crude import requirements. The government plans an additional 6.5 million metric tonnes, including at Chandikhol in Odisha and Padur in Karnataka.

    What are the challenges to India’s energy security buffer?

    1. Chokepoint concentration: A single waterway still carries most of India’s Gulf LNG. Any renewed closure of the strait re-exposes this dependence.
    2. Price-driven demand loss: High LNG prices push price-sensitive sectors like industry and power to alternative fuels. This demand destruction undercuts LNG’s role in the energy mix.
    3. Storage gap: A 74-day buffer sits below the 90-day cover the International Energy Agency recommends. Planned reserves are years from completion.
    4. Import dependence: India imports the bulk of its crude and much of its gas. Diversification reduces but does not remove the exposure to external shocks.
    5. Transit workarounds: Some suppliers exported by switching off tanker transponders to evade detection. Such tactics reflect the fragility of normal shipping through the region.

    Conclusion

    India managed the Hormuz disruption by rapidly re-routing LNG procurement to unaffected suppliers rather than cutting imports. The current status is a diversified supplier mix dominated by the United States and Oman, with strategic storage being expanded at Mangaluru and new sites. The next milestone is commissioning the additional 6.5 million tonnes of reserve capacity to lift the buffer toward international norms.

    Back2Basics

    Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)

    1. Definition: A Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is an emergency crude oil stockpile to protect against supply and price shocks.
    2. Manager: India’s SPR programme is run by Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited (ISPRL) under the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas.
    3. Phase I sites: Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru, and Padur, with a combined capacity of about 5.33 million metric tonnes.
    4. Global benchmark: The International Energy Agency recommends reserves covering 90 days of net oil imports.
    5. Hormuz significance: The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG trade, making it the world’s most critical oil chokepoint.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2025] ‘Energy security constitutes the dominant kingpin of India’s foreign policy, and is linked with India’s overarching influence in Middle Eastern countries.’ How would you integrate energy security with India’s foreign policy trajectories in the coming years?

    Linkage: UPSC recognises energy security as a key determinant of India’s foreign policy and strategic engagement with West Asia. The article shows how supplier diversification, strategic petroleum reserves, and secure maritime supply routes strengthen India’s energy security amid geopolitical disruptions.

  • [4th August 2026] The Hindu OpED: Critical minerals, the foundation of strategic power

    Mentor’s Comment

    Critical minerals have moved from the margins of resource policy to the centre of industrial strategy and national security. China’s dominance in refining, sharpened by rare-earth export controls announced in 2025, has exposed how concentrated the global supply chain is and how vulnerable importing economies remain. India holds domestic reserves but lacks the processing and refining capacity that decides who actually controls supply.

    What are critical minerals?

    1. Definition: Critical minerals are metals and elements that are essential to modern technology and defence but face a high risk of supply disruption due to concentrated production. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, copper and rare earth elements are the core group.
    2. Why they matter now: They are foundational to electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable power, semiconductors, defence systems and advanced manufacturing. As decarbonisation and digitalisation accelerate, mineral security is becoming as strategically important as oil once was.

    Why is the global supply picture a strategic risk, not a commercial one?

    1. Refining is concentrated in a few countries: For copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths, the average market share of the top three refining countries rose to 86% in 2024 from around 82% in 2020. Supply now depends on a handful of nodes.
    2. China leads across nearly all strategic minerals: China is the leading refiner in 19 of 20 strategic minerals, with an average market share of about 70%. This concentration turns minerals into geopolitical leverage rather than ordinary traded commodities.
    3. Processing is the true chokepoint: In 2024, China accounted for over 90% of rare earths and graphite processing, nearly 75% of cobalt and 70% of lithium chemicals. Control of the midstream, not the mine, confers power.
    4. Export controls have weaponised supply: China’s rare-earth export controls announced in 2025 raised alarm across energy, automotive, defence, aerospace, Artificial Intelligence and semiconductor sectors. A single supplier’s policy decision can now disrupt entire industries.

    What do foreign responses show about the value of processing capacity?

    1. European Union, mandated benchmarks: The Critical Raw Materials Act sets 2030 targets of 10% domestic extraction, 40% processing and 25% recycling, with no more than 65% of any strategic mineral sourced from a single country. It builds integrated supply chains through binding mandates.
    2. United States, mine-waste refining and defence dependence: Firms such as Phoenix Tailings use electrolysis to extract rare earths from mine tailings, backed by a USD 500 million Pentagon loan to expand separation and metallization, the weakest stage of the mines-to-magnets chain. Weapons such as Tomahawk cruise missiles, THAAD interceptors and F-35 jets fail without these inputs.
    3. United States, samarium bottleneck: The defence sector needs 50 to 100 tonnes of samarium each year, yet domestic capacity is tiny, forcing reliance on revived European sites. Solvay restarted separating rare earths at La Rochelle in France after China choked processed-material outflows in April 2025.
    4. United States, tungsten deadline: The Pentagon has set a January 2027 cut-off for China-sourced tungsten, but China controls roughly 80% of global mine supply and a larger share of downstream processing. Building domestic capacity will take years, forcing reliance on existing inventories.

    How is India positioned, and where is the gap?

    1. Reserves exist but supply security does not: India holds reserves of cobalt, copper, graphite and nickel, plus monazite deposits containing rare-earth oxides. It still imports lithium, cobalt and nickel.
    2. The critical gap is processing and refining: India has bulk-mineral experience but relies on imports for high-purity critical mineral products. Capacity and high-purity production remain constrained.
    3. Structural constraints slow progress: Exploration is shallow, regulatory clearances are time-consuming, private participation is limited and remote-region project economics are weak. Recycling cannot substitute for primary supply in the near term.
    4. Rising demand widens the exposure: Under a net-zero scenario, cumulative demand for critical energy-transition minerals could reach roughly 169 million tonnes by 2070, well above a current-policy pathway.

    What is India’s policy response since 2023?

    1. National Critical Mineral Mission: The government has identified 30 critical minerals and launched the Mission to support the value chain, targeting 1,200 domestic exploration projects by 2030-31, production of at least 15 critical minerals, and acquisition of 50 overseas mining assets.
    2. MMDR Act Amendment (2023): Amended the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act to empower the central government to auction mining leases and composite licenses for 24 critical and strategic minerals (like lithium and cobalt).
    3. Overseas acquisition through KABIL: Khanij Bidesh India Limited (KABIL), a joint venture of state-owned firms for overseas mineral assets, has secured acreage in Argentina’s Catamarca province for lithium exploration.
    4. Domestic rare-earth corridors: The 2026-27 Budget proposed rare-earth corridors in Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
    5. Diplomatic diversification: The India-United States critical minerals and rare earths framework signed in May 2026 provides an additional lever to diversify supply away from a single source.

    What are the challenges to India’s critical mineral security?

    1. Midstream absence: Without high-purity refining, India cannot participate meaningfully in supply-chain realignment even where it mines the raw ore.
    2. Import dependence for battery metals: Continued reliance on imported lithium, cobalt and nickel leaves electric-vehicle and storage ambitions exposed to external disruption. India imports more than 70% of its lithium-ion battery requirements from China and Hong Kong.
    3. Long lead times: Exploration, clearances and processing plants take years, so near-term vulnerability persists regardless of policy intent.
    4. Recycling feedstock is thin: Collection systems, feedstock volumes and technology remain limited, so recycling cannot yet offset primary shortfalls. Only 5% to 10% of digital waste in India is being systematically recycled, the rest is being wasted.
    5. No strategic stockpile in place: India has not yet operationalised buffer stocks for critical minerals, leaving it without a cushion against sudden export controls abroad.

    Conclusion

    Mineral security now defines India’s industrial and strategic trajectory, and the decisive gap is not reserves but processing and refining capacity. Individual measures are necessary but insufficient without a comprehensive strategy that sets mineral-specific risk thresholds, integrates recycling, builds strategic stockpiles and creates a coordinated institutional framework. The priority is to convert domestic potential into refining capability and reduce strategic vulnerability through sustained execution.

    Back2Basics

    National Critical Mineral Mission:

    1. Launched by the Union government to secure the critical mineral value chain, from exploration to recycling.
    2. Nodal ministry: Ministry of Mines.
    3. Minerals identified: 30 critical minerals notified for India.
    4. Key targets: 1,200 domestic exploration projects by 2030-31, production of at least 15 critical minerals, and acquisition of 50 overseas mining assets.
    5. KABIL: Khanij Bidesh India Limited, a joint venture of NALCO, Hindustan Copper and Mineral Exploration Corporation, tasked with acquiring strategic mineral assets abroad.
    6. Legal backing: The Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957 was amended in 2023 to empower the Central Government to auction leases for specified critical minerals.

    Strategic Critical Minerals Cooperation Framework (India and USA)

    1. India and the United States signed the Strategic Critical Minerals Cooperation Framework on May 26, 2026, in New Delhi.
    2. The agreement was finalized to secure supply chains, boost clean energy manufacturing, and reduce reliance on single-source monopolies like China.

    Key Goals of the Partnership

    1. Supply Chain Security: Protects sensitive mineral and rare earth networks from coercive market practices.
    2. Collaboration Areas: Focuses heavily on joint mining, advanced processing, recycling, and scrap management.
    3. Broader Alignment: Coordinates with plurilateral efforts like the Quad Critical Minerals Initiative and the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE).

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2025] Consider the following statements:

    I. India has joined the Minerals Security Partnership as a member. II. India is a resource-rich country in all the 30 critical minerals that it has identified. III. The Parliament in 2023 has amended the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957 empowering the Central Government to exclusively auction mining lease and composite license for certain critical minerals.

    Which of the statements given above are correct? (a) I and II only (b) II and III only (c) I and III only (d) I, II and III

    Answer: (c)

  • In Indo-Pacific, a steady projection of power, Quad, Great Nicobar

    Why in the News

    India has agreed to build a trilateral Track 1.5 dialogue mechanism with Japan and the Philippines and continues developing the $10 billion Great Nicobar Island Development Project near the Strait of Malacca. These moves mark a shift from India’s earlier cautious, ambiguity-preserving approach to the Indo-Pacific toward more visible geostrategic positioning, raising the question of whether India is emerging as a third power in the region alongside the United States and China.

    What is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)?

    1. Quad: The Quad is a strategic dialogue between the United States, Japan, Australia and India, first conceived in 2007 and formally revived in 2017, working toward a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific without a permanent secretariat or headquarters.

    How has India’s engagement with the Indo-Pacific evolved under the current government?

    1. Summit participation: India’s Prime Minister has attended 12 ASEAN-India Summits, nine East Asia Summits, and all six Quad leader-level summits held since 2021.
    2. Bilateral visits: The Prime Minister has visited Japan eight times, Singapore five times, Indonesia four times and Australia three times over the past decade.
    3. Engagement with China: Despite bilateral differences, the Indian and Chinese leaders have crossed paths over 20 times in the last 12 years, though not all of these constituted serious engagements.

    Why did India historically avoid an assertive framing of its Indo-Pacific role?

    1. Deliberate ambiguity: While the US proposed “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” as the Quad’s motto, India added the word “inclusive,” leaving open the question of which countries the grouping might exclude.
    2. ASEAN Centrality: India proclaimed the concept of “ASEAN Centrality” for the Indo-Pacific at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in 2017, positioning Southeast Asian nations rather than any single power at the centre of the framework.
    3. China and Russia’s rejection: China and Russia refused to adopt the term “Indo-Pacific.” China’s foreign minister in 2018 dismissed it as an effort by Western powers to encircle and contain China.

    What signals a shift toward more assertive geostrategic positioning?

    1. Great Nicobar project: The $10 billion Great Nicobar Island Development Project sits just 40 nautical miles north of the Strait of Malacca, a route that carries around 100,000 ship crossings annually, 60% of them Chinese-flagged, positioning India’s own maritime infrastructure directly along a critical Chinese trade corridor.
    2. New trilateral mechanism: India formally agreed to build a Track 1.5 dialogue with Japan and the Philippines during the Japanese Prime Minister’s visit to Delhi in July, extending Indian engagement into the East and South China Seas, a traditionally tense maritime zone.
    3. Beyond trade and technology: These engagements involve defence deals and strategic maritime collaboration, not only economic cooperation.

    What does the rise in Japanese and South Korean defence spending show about the region’s security environment?

    1. Japan: Japan raised its defence budget to $58 billion last year, moving toward a 2027 target of 2% of GDP.
    2. South Korea: South Korea has increased its defence spending to almost $45 billion, with a target of 3.5% of GDP by 2035.
    3. Shared driver: Both increases reflect a regional assessment that US engagement in the Indo-Pacific is waning even as the challenge posed by China’s rise continues to grow.

    Conclusion

    India’s recent Indo-Pacific moves, from the Great Nicobar project to the new Japan-Philippines trilateral, mark a departure from its earlier gradualist posture built around ASEAN Centrality and deliberate ambiguity. Whether India can sustain this more assertive positioning while preserving its strategic autonomy remains unresolved.

    Back2Basics

    1. Quad: Formed as a concept in 2007, formally revived in 2017.
    2. Headquarters: No formal headquarters; it functions as a strategic dialogue rather than a treaty organisation.
    3. Mandate: Strategic dialogue between the US, Japan, Australia and India on maritime security, counter-terrorism and connectivity in the Indo-Pacific.
    4. Great Nicobar Island Development Project: A roughly $10 billion project on Great Nicobar Island approved in 2022, comprising an international container transshipment terminal, a greenfield international airport, a power plant and a township, and the subject of ongoing environmental and tribal rights concern over its impact on Nicobarese and Shompen communities and coastal biodiversity.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2020] ‘Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)’ is transforming itself into a trade bloc from a military alliance, in present times. Discuss.

    Linkage: The PYQ tests the Quad’s evolving role in the Indo-Pacific strategic architecture and regional security. The article highlights India’s more assertive Indo-Pacific strategy through the Quad, new minilateral partnerships, and maritime initiatives like Great Nicobar.

  • Tariff-free Scottish salmon under UK-India CETA

    Why in the News

    The first tariff free shipment of Scottish salmon reached Bengaluru on July 31 under the UK India Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), eliminating India’s earlier 33 percent import tariff on the product. A single consignment marks the transition of a trade agreement from signed text into commercial reality, with industry estimating up to £130 million in additional export opportunity for Scotland’s salmon sector over the next decade.

    What is the UK India CETA?

    1. Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA): CETA is the bilateral free trade agreement between the United Kingdom and India that eliminates or reduces tariffs across a wide range of goods and services traded between the two countries, recently operationalised as part of the broader India-UK Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

    Why does the tariff removal matter?

    1. Immediate price effect: Removing the 33 percent import tariff makes Scottish salmon significantly cheaper for Indian importers and retailers, directly affecting shelf pricing for consumers.
    2. Early proof of implementation: A commercial shipment moving within months of the agreement taking effect signals that CETA’s tariff schedules are being implemented on the ground, not just agreed on paper.
    3. Export opportunity for Scotland: Industry estimates suggest the tariff elimination could unlock up to £130 million in additional export opportunities for Scotland’s salmon sector over the next decade.

    What are the challenges to realising CETA’s full trade potential?

    1. Cold chain and logistics: Perishable goods such as fresh salmon require reliable cold chain logistics from the United Kingdom to Indian cities, infrastructure that must scale alongside tariff-driven demand growth.
    2. Domestic industry exposure: Cheaper imported salmon could pressure India’s own aquaculture and seafood sector as volumes scale beyond this early shipment.
    3. Uneven sector by sector implementation: Tariff elimination for individual products such as salmon does not guarantee equally smooth implementation across CETA’s other covered sectors, some of which involve more complex regulatory alignment.
    4. Consumer market development: Realising the full projected export opportunity depends on Indian consumer demand for premium imported seafood growing at the pace industry estimates assume.

    Conclusion

    The Scottish salmon shipment is an early, narrow proof point for CETA’s tariff provisions rather than evidence of the agreement’s full commercial impact. Subsequent months will show whether tariff elimination translates into sustained trade volumes across the agreement’s broader list of covered goods.

  • What Chinese AI model Kimi’s success says about the next phase of US-China AI race

    Why in the News

    Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3, released in July with 2.8 trillion parameters, is being billed as the world’s largest open-weight artificial intelligence (AI) system, prompting Anthropic to accuse the Chinese company of illicitly extracting the capabilities of its Claude model. The episode echoes the shock caused by DeepSeek R1 in January 2025, and exposes a widening split between China’s open-weight AI strategy and the closed, proprietary approach favoured by leading US labs.

    What is Kimi K3?

    1. Kimi K3: Kimi K3 is an advanced AI model released by the Chinese company Moonshot AI, said to rival models from OpenAI and Anthropic, built as an “open-weight” system that can be downloaded and modified by developers.

    What is an open-weight AI model?

    1. Open-weight: An open-weight model allows developers to download its parameters, the numerical values that determine how the system responds to prompts, and run or customise it locally, unlike a closed model whose parameters remain proprietary.

    Open-Weight vs. Closed Models

    1. Open-Weight: Anyone can download the core files, study how it works, and run it offline.
    2. Closed Models: The code and numbers stay hidden on a company’s private servers, and you can only use it through a web page or an API.

    How does the Kimi K3 episode parallel the DeepSeek moment of January 2025?

    1. Prior shock: DeepSeek R1’s January 2025 release triggered global market panic after being compared favourably to leading US models, with OpenAI accusing DeepSeek of copying its technology.
    2. Repeated pattern: Kimi K3’s release in July 2026 has prompted a similar sequence, with Anthropic accusing Moonshot AI of illicitly extracting Claude’s capabilities and a US official describing it as an assault on economies that reward private capital and fair competition.
    3. Chinese countercharge: China’s Commerce Ministry responded by accusing the US of “AI hegemonism.”

    Why is China favouring an open-weight strategy over proprietary models?

    1. Chip supply constraints: Chinese developers face chip supply constraints from Western export restrictions and domestic production bottlenecks, limiting their capacity to support commercial access to a closed model.
    2. Ecosystem building: Chinese labs use open weights to reach developers faster and build an ecosystem around their models, generating demand more quickly than a closed, enterprise-only distribution model would allow.
    3. Custom licensing approach: Kimi K3 uses a hybrid model, open-weight for most users but requiring large companies to strike a commercial agreement with Moonshot, an approach described as unusual among popular open-weight releases.
    4. Diplomatic dimension: China increasingly presents open models as part of international technological cooperation, illustrated by a new Chinese government AI governance body launched this month.

    What does the US industry debate reveal about the open versus closed model split?

    1. Industry open letter: Industry figures have called for the US to shift toward open-weight models, arguing that open-source software already underlies most of the internet and systems used by the US military and federal agencies.
    2. Divergent incentives: Companies behind AI infrastructure, such as chip makers, have generally favoured open-weight models to spread adoption and demand for their hardware, while companies with proprietary models, such as Anthropic, have expressed reservations about this shift.
    3. US investigation: The US government is reportedly investigating whether Moonshot AI illegally accessed advanced chips to train its models.

    Does China’s progress prove that US export controls have failed?

    1. Not proof of failure: Kimi K3’s capability does not prove that export controls have failed. It shows that progress in AI models depends on more than access to the most advanced chips.
    2. Gap still exists: Parity between US and Chinese AI companies remains distant, given the continuing US edge in compute capacity, capital, global distribution and chip access.
    3. Wider influence: The rise of Chinese AI companies could still give other countries more choice and lower-cost options for local deployment, extending China’s influence over global technical standards even without full parity.

    Conclusion

    Kimi K3 has intensified a two-player race for global AI dominance between the US and China, driven partly by a strategic divergence between China’s open-weight approach and the closed models favoured by leading American labs. Export controls have not stopped Chinese progress, but neither have they closed the underlying gap in compute, capital and distribution that still separates the two sides.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2026] Which of the following statements with regard to Large Language Models (LLMs) used in machine learning is/are correct?

    1. LLMs assign probabilities to the next possible words and then pick the one with the highest probability.

    2. LLMs process data through mathematical optimisation to minimise prediction errors.

    3. LLMs produce unbiased outputs.

    (a) 1 only (b) 1 and 2 only (c) 2 and 3 only (d) 1, 2 and 3.