Subject: Geo-politics affecting India’s Interest

The US withdrawal from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) in 2018 and subsequent reimposition of sanctions, has heightened tensions in West Asia.

Impact on India’s National Interests

Energy Security

Regional instability inflates global oil prices, aggravating India’s current account deficit and rupee depreciation.

Connectivity Challenges

US sanctions complicate financing and insurance for the Chabahar Port and INSTC– critical to India’s access to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Europe.

India’s exports to Iran (pharmaceuticals, rice, machinery) face banking restrictions.

Strategic and Diplomatic Dilemmas

Challenge of maintaining strategic partnerships with both Washington and Tehran, while avoiding diplomatic friction.

Security Concerns- Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz threatens India’s sea-borne energy supplies and security of Indian diaspora in the Gulf. Eg- Red sea crisis in 2024

How India Should Respond

Short-term Measures

Energy Diversification- Strengthen long-term import contracts with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Russia, and the US, and expand strategic oil reserves.

Protect Maritime Routes- Enhance naval surveillance in the Arabian Sea under SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region).

Use rupee-rial trade mechanisms and alternate payment channels.

Medium to Long-term Strategy

Secure waivers for Chabahar Port and accelerate linkage with INSTC to strengthen access to Eurasia.

Energy Transition- Fast-track investments in renewables, LNG, and green hydrogen.

Regional Multilateralism- Promote India-GCC-Iran dialogue for maritime security and conflict de-escalation.

Supporting IAEA-based diplomacy for restoring JCPOA through peaceful dialogue and achieving Nuclear disarmament.

A balanced, multi-vector foreign policy is essential to safeguard India’s economic and security interests while sustaining its role as a stabilizing power in West Asia.

The region of Central Asia is located in the heart of Eurasia and denoted as Heartland by Helford Mackinder. It connects Europe, West Asia, South Asia, and Russia, and holds vast reserves of energy and minerals.

Outside Powers Entrenched in Central Asia

China- Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China-Central Asia-West Asia Corridor

Russia through Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

United States- involvement in Afghanistan

India – through Bilateral relations and SCO. Eg- PM visited all 5 CA Republics

Central Asia as a Zone of Interest to India

Geopolitical – Area of Great Game.

Energy Security- Central Asia possesses abundant oil, gas, and uranium reserves vital for India’s growing energy needs (e.g., TAPI gas pipeline).

Connectivity and Trade- Provides a gateway to Eurasia and Europe, helping India bypass Pakistan. Eg- INSTC

Strategic Balancing- counter China’s strategic dominance

Cultural-Historical Linkages- Shared Silk Road heritage, Buddhism, and Sufi culture

The Ashgabat Agreement is a multilateral transport and transit pact aimed at creating an International Transport and Transit Corridor (ITTC) between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf.

Positive Implications of India’s Joining

Enhanced Connectivity via the Persian Gulf and Iran’s Chabahar Port, complementing the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

Energy and Economic Integration- Opens efficient trade routes for energy imports, minerals, and agricultural goods.

Reduces India’s dependence on traditional routes blocked by Pakistan; provides alternative trade corridors aligned with its “Connect Central Asia Policy.”

Balancing China’s BRI and enhancing India’s geo-economic presence.

Regional Cooperation- Deepens engagement with Iran, Oman, and Central Asian republics.

Challenges

Geopolitical Constraints- US sanctions on Iran threaten India’s ability to operationalize corridors through Chabahar and Iran-Turkmenistan routes.

Security Instability- Afghanistan’s volatility disrupts regional connectivity and supply chains.

China’s deep pocket diplomacy limits India’s economic space and bargaining power.

India’s delivery Deficit – Eg- Delay in INSTC

Compared to Russia and China, India’s economic and physical presence remains limited

Agreement reinforces India’s “Connect Central Asia” and “Act West” policies.

The international system is shifting from the ‘unipolar’ and Western-led liberal order to a more ‘hybrid’, decentralised and polycentric system (‘multi-polar’ world order). In this context, India’s role has also transformed as an emerging global power.

India’s Earlier Role as a Voice of the Marginalised

The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) promoted strategic autonomy and South-South solidarity against superpower blocs.

Economic Advocacy- At UNCTAD and G77, India pushed for a New International Economic Order (NIEO) to reform global trade and finance.

Decolonisation- Eg- opposition to apartheid in South Africa

Disarmament Diplomacy- Advocated global nuclear disarmament.

WTO Diplomacy – Advocacy for Doha Agenda

Shift in India’s Global Posture – Rise of Realpolitik

Economic Liberalisation (1991)- Shift from Third World solidarity to global integration. Eg- recent FTA with UK

Shift from Non-Alignment to Multi Alignment – Strategic Partnerships with US, Japan, France, and Israel based on Enlightened self interest.

Membership in Quad, SCO, BRICS, and G20, signal pragmatic engagement beyond ideological blocs.

Nuclear Tests (1998)- Assertion of national power replaced earlier moral idealism.

Energy & Security Diplomacy- India’s West Asia, I2U2, and Indo-Pacific strategies reflect a realist pursuit of interests.

Reduced Role in NAM– Eg- PM Modi skipping NAM Summit

India’s Act East Policy and Indo-Pacific strategy align with global power equations and economic interests.

Strategic Balancing- Maintaining relations with US (Quad), Russia (defence), and China (BRICS/SCO) reflects sophisticated multi-vector diplomacy.

However, India Still Asserts Its Ethical Stance and Voice of the Global South

South-South Cooperation- India extends Lines of Credit, ITEC training, and humanitarian aid to 160+ nations.

Humanitarian diplomacy under Vaccine Maitri (2021)- Supplied vaccines to over 90 countries.

Voice of Global South Summit (2023)- representing Global South concerns on debt, food, and digital inclusion.

Climate Justice Advocacy- India’s stand for common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR).

Digital Public Goods Diplomacy- Eg- promotion of India Stack and UPI models in Africa.

Ethical Multilateralism- Eg- call for UNSC reform and rule-based global order, rooted in the civilisational ethos of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (“One Earth, One Family, One Future”).

The world order today is in ‘flux’ (M. K. Narayanan). Issue based partnerships rather than alliances is the order of the day (S. Jaishankar)

The world order today is in ‘flux’ (M. K. Narayanan). In this context, “India is shaping up to be the trusted partner in a turbulent world.” (S. Jaishankar)

China’s Dominance

Political

Alternative governance and development model of authoritarian capitalism

Strategic assertion in South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and Indian Ocean. Eg- boiling frog strategy

Dual-use infrastructure- Eg- BRI ports and bases (Djibouti, Gwadar).

Economic

Parallel institutional ecosystem- Creation of AIIB, NDB, and BRI

Complex interdependence- 18% of world GDP, major supplier in 70% of global supply chains.

Debt Trap diplomacy through BRI loans and surplus-deficit strategies. Eg- Sri Lanka

Weaponisation of supply chains – Eg- export restrictions on rare earths

India’s Emerging Role as an Alternative to China

(A) Geoeconomic Dimension – Supply Chain Diversification

“China+1” Strategy-

Global firms (Apple, Foxconn, Dell, Samsung) shifting manufacturing to India.

India’s PLI Scheme attracted global investment in electronics, semiconductors, and solar.

Recent FTA with UK

Resilient Supply Chain Initiative by India, Japan, and Australia to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing.

US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET, 2023)- Cooperation in semiconductors, AI, quantum computing, and space.

EU-India Trade and Technology Council (TTC, 2023)- Platform for technology, green energy, and digital infrastructure collaboration.

(B) Strategic and Geopolitical Dimension

Indo-Pacific Strategy-

India is central to US-led Indo-Pacific vision ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Participation in QUAD (India, US, Japan, Australia) to balance China’s maritime influence.

Increasing defence trade and interoperability under COMCASA, BECA, LEMOA agreements.

Critical Minerals Partnership (2022) to counter China’s monopoly in rare earth supply chains

Infrastructure Connectivity- IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor, 2023) launched at G20 to provide an alternative to China’s BRI.

(C) Multilateral and Institutional Cooperation

India’s G20 Presidency (2023) strengthened its global credibility as a bridge between Global North and South.

Western nations back India’s UNSC reform demand, recognizing its role in a multipolar world.

ASEAN Countries and CARs as well as Russia support India’s role in ASEAN and SCO respectively as a counterbalance to China

As the centre of gravity of world politics is shifting towards Indo-Pacific, India’s role is going to be critical in shaping 21st century great power dynamics.

Thomas Friedman, (The Lexus and the Olive Tree), defines globalization as the inexorable integration of markets, nation-states, and technologies, making it farther, faster, deeper, and cheaper. However, at present, the world is witnessing ‘Deglobalisation’.

Waning of Globalization

Global trade as % of GDP peaked at 61% in 2008, declining to ~52% by 2024 (World Bank).

Reversal of Liberalization- Trade wars, tariffs (US-China), and reshoring policies mark a retreat from free markets.

The splinternet, 5G bans, and AI regulation indicate the politicisation of technology.

Weakening of Global Institutions- paralysis of WTO, and unilateral sanctions. Eg- USA’s CAATSA

Regionalism replacing globalization – RCEP, IPEF, BRICS+, EU strategic autonomy.

Rise of Sovereign Nationalism

Economic Nationalism – US “America First”, India’s Atmanirbhar Bharat, EU’s strategic autonomy.

Resource Nationalism- Nations asserting control over rare earths, energy, and food exports. Eg- Indonesia’s nickel ban.

Political Sovereignty – Brexit (2016) justified as “taking back control”.

Identity Politics- Nationalist rhetoric linked to cultural, ethnic, or religious identity. Eg- rise of Neo Fascist powers in Europe.

Strategic Assertion – Russia’s rejection of Western dominance through the Ukraine war.

Digital Sovereignty – EU’s GDPR and DSA for data protection; China’s Great Firewall.

Security Nationalism – Eg- Iran’s nuclear program

Vaccine & Resource Nationalism during COVID-19

Backlash Against Migration- Eg- Immigration controls in UK, EU, USA

Public Opinion Shift- Global surveys (Pew, 2023) show declining trust in globalization and preference for domestic self-reliance.

The retreat of globalization signals a transition from hyper-interdependence to guarded sovereignty and realist state-centric politics