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Subject: Geo-politics affecting India’s Interest

  • [29th July 2026] The Hindu OpED: Iran’s Afghan balancing act amid regional upheaval

    PYQ Relevance
    [UPSC 2013]     The proposed withdrawal of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) from Afghanistan in 2014 is fraught with major security implications for the counters of the region. Examine in light of the fact that India is faced with a plethora of challenges and needs to safeguard its own strategic interests.
    Linkage: The PYQ examines the regional security fallout of a foreign military withdrawal from Afghanistan. The article traces how the 2021 US withdrawal reshaped Iran’s Afghan calculus, a parallel instance of a withdrawal reordering regional strategic behaviour.

    Mentor’s Comment

    Delegations from both the Taliban and the rival Northern Alliance attended the funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran. This dual presence exposed Iran’s continued refusal to fully commit to the Taliban government despite deep economic and diplomatic engagement with Kabul. The visit occurred while Iran was fighting a war in the west, raising the stakes of managing its eastern flank.

    Why does Iran’s history with the Northern Alliance still shape its Taliban policy today?

    1. Pre-2001 alignment: Iran backed the Northern Alliance against the Taliban through the 1990s, alongside India, Russia, and Tajikistan.
    2. Post-9/11 recalibration: Iran’s view of the Taliban shifted after the 9/11 attacks brought sustained Western military deployment to its borders.
    3. Non-recognition persists: Iran has built the strongest external influence in Kabul since 2021 but still withholds formal recognition of the Taliban government.
    4. Dual channel maintained: Iran hosted Taliban Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi alongside Northern Alliance leader Ahmed Massoud at the same funeral.

    How did the US withdrawal from Afghanistan reshape Iran’s regional calculus?

    1. Border threat removed: The August 2021 US withdrawal ended a two-decade military presence on Iran’s eastern border.
    2. Competing patronage exposed: Pakistan simultaneously backed the Taliban and the US-led war on terror, producing overlapping and contradictory interests.
    3. Contradiction on record: Osama bin Laden was found in Abbottabad in May 2011, in a house and not a cave, pointing to this dual role.
    4. A quieter front sought: Iran calculated that reducing conflict on its Afghan front would free up resources for other priorities.
    5. Limited patronage offered: Iran could offer the Taliban political legitimacy but only a limited amount of material patronage.

    Why does Iran keep hedging despite the Taliban’s declared wartime support?

    1. Support pledged: A Taliban spokesman close to emir Hibatullah Akhundzada said the group would support Iran if it came under attack. The extent of this support remains undefined.
    2. Access granted: The Taliban gave Iran access to Afghanistan’s civilian airports over the past year.
    3. Durability doubted: Iran treats an insurgency-turned-government as carrying a persistent question mark over its long-term stability.
    4. Internal fissures noted: Ideological and tribal divisions inside the Taliban require constant micromanagement.
    5. Power still consolidating: The Taliban is still solidifying control between Kabul, its political capital, and Kandahar, its ideological one.
    6. Institutional memory at play: Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani’s operational history traces back to the 1990s Taliban-Northern Alliance conflict. This history informs his current caution.

    Why does Iran engage both the Taliban and its opposition at once?

    1. Hedging strategy: Engaging both the recognised Taliban government and the Northern Alliance lets Iran preserve influence regardless of which side gains ground in Afghanistan’s internal balance of power.
    2. Border security concern: Iran shares a long border with Afghanistan, and instability on either side directly affects Iranian security, giving Tehran incentive to maintain channels with all major Afghan actors.
    3. Pakistan factor: Iran’s Afghanistan policy is shaped in part by its complex relationship with Pakistan, which has its own competing interests in Afghan internal politics.
    4. Regional war context: The West Asia war constrains Iran’s bandwidth and resources, making a flexible, multi track Afghan policy more practical than committing exclusively to one Afghan faction.

    What does the Iran-Pakistan wartime “brotherhood” reveal about the limits of regional alliances?

    1. Mediator role assumed: Pakistan positioned itself as a mediator between Tehran and Washington during the war.
    2. Divergent aims surfaced: Pakistan seeks favour with the US and Gulf partners, shown by its troop deployment in Saudi Arabia.
    3. Instrumental use by Iran: Iran uses the relationship as a channel to reach the US through a neighbour it knows, though does not fully trust.
    4. Bilateralism made incidental: The Iran-Pakistan relationship itself is secondary to each country’s separate external objectives.

    Conclusion

    Iran’s simultaneous engagement with the Taliban and the Northern Alliance is a hedging strategy shaped by the West Asia war’s demands on its resources and by its complicated relationship with Pakistan. The approach preserves Iranian influence in Afghanistan without requiring Tehran to bet its regional position on one Afghan faction’s success.

    Back2Basics

      Key Terms

      1. IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): Iran’s ideological military force, separate from its regular armed forces.
      2. Quds Force: IRGC’s branch handling external operations and foreign militant networks.
      3. Northern Alliance: A coalition of anti-Taliban Afghan factions, historically backed by Iran, India, and Russia.

    1. India’s strategic thinking should shift from border “geography” to a “geometry of interests”

      Why in the News

      India’s strategic thinking should shift from a border centric “geography” view to a broader “geometry of interests” spanning the Gulf, Central Asia, the Indo-Pacific and maritime domains.

      Why is a border centric strategic view seen as inadequate?

      1. Narrow threat framing: A geography centric view concentrates strategic attention on land borders with Pakistan and China, underweighting maritime and extended neighbourhood interests.
      2. Expanding interest map: India’s energy security, diaspora, and trade interests in the Gulf, Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific now carry strategic weight comparable to border security concerns.
      3. Maritime domain gap: A geography first framing has historically under-prioritised India’s maritime domain, despite its growing dependence on sea lanes for energy and trade.

      Conclusion

      The central idea is that India’s strategic doctrine has not kept pace with the expansion of its actual interests beyond its land borders. A “geometry of interests” framing would reallocate strategic attention toward the Gulf, Central Asia, the Indo-Pacific and maritime domains in proportion to their real weight in India’s security and economic interests.

    2. India’s “almost great power” status collides with domestic polarisation and stalled reform

      Why in the News

      India’s “almost great power” status is assessed against domestic political polarisation and stalled economic reforms. The piece argues these widen the gap between India’s geopolitical ambition and its material capability.

      Why does the gap between ambition and capability persist?

      1. Reform stall: Structural economic reforms needed to sustain great power level growth rates have slowed, limiting the material base India’s geopolitical ambitions depend on.
      2. Domestic polarisation: Political polarisation at home diverts governance bandwidth and consensus building capacity away from the sustained reform effort great power status requires.
      3. Capability versus signalling: India’s diplomatic signalling of great power ambition has outpaced the material capability, in economic scale and military modernisation, needed to back that signalling consistently.

      Conclusion

      The central idea is that India’s great power ambition is a signalling exercise running ahead of the material capability domestic reform stagnation and polarisation have failed to build. Closing the gap requires resuming the reform effort at home, not further diplomatic signalling abroad.

    3. The proposed withdrawal of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) from Afghanistan in 2014 is fraught with major security implications for the countries of the region. Examine in light of the fact that India is faced with a plethora of challenges and needs to safeguard its own strategic interests.

    4. ‘China is using its economic relations and positive trade surplus as tools to develop potential military power status in Asia’, In the light of this statement, discuss its impact on India as her neighbor.

    5. In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to this situation?

      The US withdrawal from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) in 2018 and subsequent reimposition of sanctions, has heightened tensions in West Asia.

      Impact on India’s National Interests

      Energy Security

      Regional instability inflates global oil prices, aggravating India’s current account deficit and rupee depreciation.

      Connectivity Challenges

      US sanctions complicate financing and insurance for the Chabahar Port and INSTC– critical to India’s access to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Europe.

      India’s exports to Iran (pharmaceuticals, rice, machinery) face banking restrictions.

      Strategic and Diplomatic Dilemmas

      Challenge of maintaining strategic partnerships with both Washington and Tehran, while avoiding diplomatic friction.

      Security Concerns- Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz threatens India’s sea-borne energy supplies and security of Indian diaspora in the Gulf. Eg- Red sea crisis in 2024

      How India Should Respond

      Short-term Measures

      Energy Diversification- Strengthen long-term import contracts with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Russia, and the US, and expand strategic oil reserves.

      Protect Maritime Routes- Enhance naval surveillance in the Arabian Sea under SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region).

      Use rupee-rial trade mechanisms and alternate payment channels.

      Medium to Long-term Strategy

      Secure waivers for Chabahar Port and accelerate linkage with INSTC to strengthen access to Eurasia.

      Energy Transition- Fast-track investments in renewables, LNG, and green hydrogen.

      Regional Multilateralism- Promote India-GCC-Iran dialogue for maritime security and conflict de-escalation.

      Supporting IAEA-based diplomacy for restoring JCPOA through peaceful dialogue and achieving Nuclear disarmament.

      A balanced, multi-vector foreign policy is essential to safeguard India’s economic and security interests while sustaining its role as a stabilizing power in West Asia.

    6. A number of outside powers have entrenched themselves in Central Asia, which is a zone of interest to India. Discuss the implications, in this context, of India’s joining the Ashgabat Agreement, 2018.

      The region of Central Asia is located in the heart of Eurasia and denoted as Heartland by Helford Mackinder. It connects Europe, West Asia, South Asia, and Russia, and holds vast reserves of energy and minerals.

      Outside Powers Entrenched in Central Asia

      China- Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China-Central Asia-West Asia Corridor

      Russia through Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

      United States- involvement in Afghanistan

      India – through Bilateral relations and SCO. Eg- PM visited all 5 CA Republics

      Central Asia as a Zone of Interest to India

      Geopolitical – Area of Great Game.

      Energy Security- Central Asia possesses abundant oil, gas, and uranium reserves vital for India’s growing energy needs (e.g., TAPI gas pipeline).

      Connectivity and Trade- Provides a gateway to Eurasia and Europe, helping India bypass Pakistan. Eg- INSTC

      Strategic Balancing- counter China’s strategic dominance

      Cultural-Historical Linkages- Shared Silk Road heritage, Buddhism, and Sufi culture

      The Ashgabat Agreement is a multilateral transport and transit pact aimed at creating an International Transport and Transit Corridor (ITTC) between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf.

      Positive Implications of India’s Joining

      Enhanced Connectivity via the Persian Gulf and Iran’s Chabahar Port, complementing the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

      Energy and Economic Integration- Opens efficient trade routes for energy imports, minerals, and agricultural goods.

      Reduces India’s dependence on traditional routes blocked by Pakistan; provides alternative trade corridors aligned with its “Connect Central Asia Policy.”

      Balancing China’s BRI and enhancing India’s geo-economic presence.

      Regional Cooperation- Deepens engagement with Iran, Oman, and Central Asian republics.

      Challenges

      Geopolitical Constraints- US sanctions on Iran threaten India’s ability to operationalize corridors through Chabahar and Iran-Turkmenistan routes.

      Security Instability- Afghanistan’s volatility disrupts regional connectivity and supply chains.

      China’s deep pocket diplomacy limits India’s economic space and bargaining power.

      India’s delivery Deficit – Eg- Delay in INSTC

      Compared to Russia and China, India’s economic and physical presence remains limited

      Agreement reinforces India’s “Connect Central Asia” and “Act West” policies.

    7. “The long-sustained image of India as a leader of the oppressed and marginalised Nations has disappeared on account of its new found role in the emerging global order”. Elaborate.

      The international system is shifting from the ‘unipolar’ and Western-led liberal order to a more ‘hybrid’, decentralised and polycentric system (‘multi-polar’ world order). In this context, India’s role has also transformed as an emerging global power.

      India’s Earlier Role as a Voice of the Marginalised

      The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) promoted strategic autonomy and South-South solidarity against superpower blocs.

      Economic Advocacy- At UNCTAD and G77, India pushed for a New International Economic Order (NIEO) to reform global trade and finance.

      Decolonisation- Eg- opposition to apartheid in South Africa

      Disarmament Diplomacy- Advocated global nuclear disarmament.

      WTO Diplomacy – Advocacy for Doha Agenda

      Shift in India’s Global Posture – Rise of Realpolitik

      Economic Liberalisation (1991)- Shift from Third World solidarity to global integration. Eg- recent FTA with UK

      Shift from Non-Alignment to Multi Alignment – Strategic Partnerships with US, Japan, France, and Israel based on Enlightened self interest.

      Membership in Quad, SCO, BRICS, and G20, signal pragmatic engagement beyond ideological blocs.

      Nuclear Tests (1998)- Assertion of national power replaced earlier moral idealism.

      Energy & Security Diplomacy- India’s West Asia, I2U2, and Indo-Pacific strategies reflect a realist pursuit of interests.

      Reduced Role in NAM– Eg- PM Modi skipping NAM Summit

      India’s Act East Policy and Indo-Pacific strategy align with global power equations and economic interests.

      Strategic Balancing- Maintaining relations with US (Quad), Russia (defence), and China (BRICS/SCO) reflects sophisticated multi-vector diplomacy.

      However, India Still Asserts Its Ethical Stance and Voice of the Global South

      South-South Cooperation- India extends Lines of Credit, ITEC training, and humanitarian aid to 160+ nations.

      Humanitarian diplomacy under Vaccine Maitri (2021)- Supplied vaccines to over 90 countries.

      Voice of Global South Summit (2023)- representing Global South concerns on debt, food, and digital inclusion.

      Climate Justice Advocacy- India’s stand for common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR).

      Digital Public Goods Diplomacy- Eg- promotion of India Stack and UPI models in Africa.

      Ethical Multilateralism- Eg- call for UNSC reform and rule-based global order, rooted in the civilisational ethos of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (“One Earth, One Family, One Future”).

      The world order today is in ‘flux’ (M. K. Narayanan). Issue based partnerships rather than alliances is the order of the day (S. Jaishankar)

    8. The West is fostering India as an alternative to reduce dependence on China’s supply chain and as a strategic ally to counter China’s political and economic dominance.’ Explain this statement with examples.

      The world order today is in ‘flux’ (M. K. Narayanan). In this context, “India is shaping up to be the trusted partner in a turbulent world.” (S. Jaishankar)

      China’s Dominance

      Political

      Alternative governance and development model of authoritarian capitalism

      Strategic assertion in South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and Indian Ocean. Eg- boiling frog strategy

      Dual-use infrastructure- Eg- BRI ports and bases (Djibouti, Gwadar).

      Economic

      Parallel institutional ecosystem- Creation of AIIB, NDB, and BRI

      Complex interdependence- 18% of world GDP, major supplier in 70% of global supply chains.

      Debt Trap diplomacy through BRI loans and surplus-deficit strategies. Eg- Sri Lanka

      Weaponisation of supply chains – Eg- export restrictions on rare earths

      India’s Emerging Role as an Alternative to China

      (A) Geoeconomic Dimension – Supply Chain Diversification

      “China+1” Strategy-

      Global firms (Apple, Foxconn, Dell, Samsung) shifting manufacturing to India.

      India’s PLI Scheme attracted global investment in electronics, semiconductors, and solar.

      Recent FTA with UK

      Resilient Supply Chain Initiative by India, Japan, and Australia to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing.

      US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET, 2023)- Cooperation in semiconductors, AI, quantum computing, and space.

      EU-India Trade and Technology Council (TTC, 2023)- Platform for technology, green energy, and digital infrastructure collaboration.

      (B) Strategic and Geopolitical Dimension

      Indo-Pacific Strategy-

      India is central to US-led Indo-Pacific vision ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.

      Participation in QUAD (India, US, Japan, Australia) to balance China’s maritime influence.

      Increasing defence trade and interoperability under COMCASA, BECA, LEMOA agreements.

      Critical Minerals Partnership (2022) to counter China’s monopoly in rare earth supply chains

      Infrastructure Connectivity- IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor, 2023) launched at G20 to provide an alternative to China’s BRI.

      (C) Multilateral and Institutional Cooperation

      India’s G20 Presidency (2023) strengthened its global credibility as a bridge between Global North and South.

      Western nations back India’s UNSC reform demand, recognizing its role in a multipolar world.

      ASEAN Countries and CARs as well as Russia support India’s role in ASEAN and SCO respectively as a counterbalance to China

      As the centre of gravity of world politics is shifting towards Indo-Pacific, India’s role is going to be critical in shaping 21st century great power dynamics.

    9. With the waning of globalization, post-Cold War world is becoming a site of sovereign nationalism. Elucidate.

      Thomas Friedman, (The Lexus and the Olive Tree), defines globalization as the inexorable integration of markets, nation-states, and technologies, making it farther, faster, deeper, and cheaper. However, at present, the world is witnessing ‘Deglobalisation’.

      Waning of Globalization

      Global trade as % of GDP peaked at 61% in 2008, declining to ~52% by 2024 (World Bank).

      Reversal of Liberalization- Trade wars, tariffs (US-China), and reshoring policies mark a retreat from free markets.

      The splinternet, 5G bans, and AI regulation indicate the politicisation of technology.

      Weakening of Global Institutions- paralysis of WTO, and unilateral sanctions. Eg- USA’s CAATSA

      Regionalism replacing globalization – RCEP, IPEF, BRICS+, EU strategic autonomy.

      Rise of Sovereign Nationalism

      Economic Nationalism – US “America First”, India’s Atmanirbhar Bharat, EU’s strategic autonomy.

      Resource Nationalism- Nations asserting control over rare earths, energy, and food exports. Eg- Indonesia’s nickel ban.

      Political Sovereignty – Brexit (2016) justified as “taking back control”.

      Identity Politics- Nationalist rhetoric linked to cultural, ethnic, or religious identity. Eg- rise of Neo Fascist powers in Europe.

      Strategic Assertion – Russia’s rejection of Western dominance through the Ukraine war.

      Digital Sovereignty – EU’s GDPR and DSA for data protection; China’s Great Firewall.

      Security Nationalism – Eg- Iran’s nuclear program

      Vaccine & Resource Nationalism during COVID-19

      Backlash Against Migration- Eg- Immigration controls in UK, EU, USA

      Public Opinion Shift- Global surveys (Pew, 2023) show declining trust in globalization and preference for domestic self-reliance.

      The retreat of globalization signals a transition from hyper-interdependence to guarded sovereignty and realist state-centric politics