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GS Paper: Indian Economy

  • How India’s Sugar Exports to the world are surging?

    sugar

    Central idea:  India’s success story in sugar exports

    • India’s sugar exports have soared from $810.9 million in 2017-18 to $4.6 billion in 2021-22, and could cross $5.5 billion in the fiscal year ending March 31.
    • The increase is significant in quantity terms too, with India’s shipments increasing from a mere 0.46 lakh tonnes in 2016-17 to 110 lakh tonnes in 2021-22.
    • India has gone from being a marginal player in sugar exports five years ago to No. 2 in the world currently, behind only Brazil.

    Favourite destinations

    • The biggest importers of Indian raw sugar were Indonesia (16.73 lt), Bangladesh (12.10 lt), Saudi Arabia (6.83 lt), Iraq (4.78 lt) and Malaysia (4.15 lt).
    • The country also exported 53.71 lt of white/ refined sugar, the leading destinations for which included Afghanistan (7.54 lt), Somalia (5.17 lt), Djibouti (4.90 lt), Sri Lanka (4.27 lt), China (2.58 lt), and Sudan (1.08 lt).
    • The highest decline in exports has been registered by the European Union (which produces sugar from beet, unlike India and Brazil that only crush cane): from 39.74 lt in 2017-18 to 8.02 lt in 2021-22.

    Which grades of sugar does India export?

    • Raw sugar is what mills produce after the first crystallization of juice obtained from crushing of cane.
    • This sugar is rough and brownish in color, with an ICUMSA value of 600-1,200 or higher.
    • ICUMSA is a measure of the purity of sugar based on color.
    • This raw sugar is processed in refineries for removal of impurities and de-colorization.
    • The end product is refined white cane sugar having a standard ICUMSA value of 45.
    • Till 2017-18, India mainly shipped plantation white sugar with 100-150 ICUMSA value, also known as low-quality whites or LQW in international markets.

    Reasons behind India’s surge in sugar exports

    • Indian raw sugar is free of dextran, unlike Brazilian raws.
    • Indian mills can supply raws with a very high polarization of 98.5-99.5%, which is higher than the polarization of raws from Brazil, Thailand, and Australia.
    • Indian raws today fetch a 4% premium over the global benchmark (New York No. 11 futures contract) price, while LQW sells at a $40/tonne discount to the world price (London No. 5 futures) for 45 ICUMSA whites.
    • Indonesia agreed to tweak its norms in December 2019 to enable imports from India, which further boosted India’s efforts to push exports of raws.

     

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  • India’s Foreign Trade Policy set to be revised from April 1

     

    trade

    Central idea: The revision of India’s Foreign Trade Policy, which has been unchanged since 2015 and due for three years, may finally be announced by the end of this month.

    What is a Foreign Trade Policy?

    • India’s Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) is a set of guidelines for goods and services imported and exported.
    • These are developed by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), the Ministry of Commerce and Industry’s regulating body for the promotion and facilitation of exports and imports.
    • FTPs are enforceable under the Foreign Trade Development and Regulation Act 1992.

    What is India’s Foreign Trade Policy?

    • In line with the ‘Make in India,’ ‘Digital India,’ ‘Skill India,’ ‘Startup India,’ and ‘Ease of Doing Business initiatives, the Foreign Trade Policy (2015-20) was launched on April 1, 2015.
    • It provides a framework for increasing exports of goods and services, creating jobs, and increasing value addition in the country.
    • The FTP statement outlines the market and product strategy as well as the steps needed to promote trade, expand infrastructure, and improve the entire trade ecosystem.
    • It aims to help India respond to external problems while staying on top of fast-changing international trading infrastructure and to make trade a major contributor to the country’s economic growth and development.

    Issues with FTP (2015-2020)

    • Acting on Washington’s protest, a WTO dispute settlement panel ruled in 2019 that India’s export subsidy measures are in violation of WTO norms and must be repealed.
    • Tax incentives under the popular Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS) (now renamed as RODTEP Scheme)and Service Exports from India Scheme (SEIS) programmes were among them.
    • The panel found that because India’s per capita gross national product exceeds $1,000 per year, it may no longer grant subsidies based on export performance.

    Why such a delay in Foreign Trade Policy?

    • Geopolitical uncertainty: The geo-political situation is not suitable for long-term foreign trade policy, said Union Commerce Minister.
    • Global recession: Currently, fears of a recession in major economies like the US and Europe have escalated a panic among investors.
    • Decline in USD inflows: Foreign investors have begun to pull back their money from equities.
    • Rupee depreciation: The US Dollar is at a 22-year high, while the Rupee hit a new all-time low of $81.6.
    • Huge trade deficit: The trade deficit widened by more than 2-folds to $125.22 billion (April – August 2022) compared to $53.78 billion in the same period last year.
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  • NSO’s New Data: India’s GDP Growth

    GDP

    Central Idea

    • The National Statistical Office (NSO) has released a new set of data on India’s annual and quarterly national income, providing a final assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the country’s GDP growth. The latest numbers and sector-wise performance, highlighting areas of growth and contraction.

    Recovery since pre-COVID year

    • Advance estimates: NSO’s second advance estimate (SAE) shows a contraction of (-) 5.7% in 2020-21, lower than its first advance estimate (FAE) at (-) 7.7%.
    • Benefited sectors: Manufacturing, construction, and financial sectors benefited the most in the revised estimate.
    • GDP growth: Real GDP in the COVID-19 year amounted to ₹136.9 lakh crore, higher than the earlier assessment of ₹134.4 lakh crore. GDP grew by 9.1% in 2021-22 and 7% in 2022-23.
    • Negative growth in 2020: The compound annual average growth rate between 2019-20 and 2022-23 was 3.2%. Comparison with other countries, including China, Bangladesh, and Vietnam, shows India’s negative growth rate in 2020.

    Back to basics: Advanced estimates

    • Advance estimates refer to the preliminary projections made by the government regarding the likely economic growth, inflation, or other macroeconomic indicators of a country for a given period. These estimates are usually released a few months before the actual data for the period becomes available.
    • Advance estimates are based on various economic indicators such as industrial production, agricultural output, exports, and consumption expenditure, among others. These indicators are used to extrapolate the economic activity for the full period, based on which the government makes its initial projections.

    GDP

    Sector-wise Performance

    • Overall GVA in 2022-23 is higher by 11.3% compared to 2019-20.
    • Mining and quarrying sector still shows a contraction at (-) 0.3%.
    • Trade, hotels, transport, etc., show weak growth of 4.3%.
    • Construction sector shows higher-than-average growth at 18.6%.
    • Manufacturing sector also shows robust growth at 14.8%.
    • Financial, real estate, etc., grew at 14.3%.
    • Agriculture sector grew at 12%.
    • Government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) grew at 7.4%.
    • Gross fixed capital formation and private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) increased by 17.7% and 13.1%, respectively.

    Investment and Capacity Utilization

    • Gross fixed capital formation to GDP ratio in nominal terms increased to 29.2% in 2022-23 from 28.6% in 2019-20.
    • Real investment rates increased to 34% in 2022-23 from 31.8% in 2019-20.
    • Estimated incremental capital output ratio (ICOR) decreased to 4.9 in 2022-23 from 8.5 in 2019-20.
    • Capacity utilization ratio in the manufacturing sector was only 70.3% in 2019-20, but it increased to 73.5% in the first half of 2022-23.
    • Subdued growth implies lower capacity utilization and higher ICOR.

    Quarterly Growth and Projections

    • Q3 2022-23 saw a decline in real GDP growth to 4.4% from 6.3% in Q2 and 13.2% in Q1.
    • Growth rate in Q3 and expected growth rate in Q4 are quite low.
    • High frequency indicators point towards improved economic activity.
    • PMI manufacturing in January and February 2023 remained above its long-term average.
    • PMI services increased to a near 12-year

    GDP

    Conclusion

    • the NSO’s latest data on India’s GDP growth provides a final assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the country’s economy. The NSO’s data shows that India’s economy is recovering, albeit at a slower pace, from the COVID-19 pandemic.
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  • India bats for Sovereign Credit Rating upgrade

    credit

    Central idea: India is seeking an upgrade to its sovereign credit rating, currently at the lowest-possible investment grade, as it believes its economic metrics have improved considerably since the pandemic.

    What are Sovereign Credit Ratings?

    • A sovereign credit rating is a measure of a country’s creditworthiness, or its ability to meet its financial obligations.
    • It is an assessment of the credit risk associated with a country’s bonds or other debt securities.
    • The rating is assigned by credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch Ratings.

    India’s current ratings

    • S&P and Fitch rate India ‘BBB-‘ and Moody’s ‘Baa3’, all indicative of the lowest-possible investment grade, but with a stable outlook.

    What does BBB mean?

    • A ‘BBB’ rating indicates that expectations of default risk are currently low.
    • The capacity for payment of financial commitments is considered adequate, but adverse business or economic conditions are more likely to impair this capacity.

    What is a Rating Agency?

    • Rating agencies assess the creditworthiness or potential of an equity, debt or country.
    • Their reports are read by investors to make an informed decision on whether or not to invest in a particular country or companies in that geography.
    • They assess if a country, equity or debt is financially stable and whether it at a low/high default risk.
    • In simpler terms, these reports help investors gauge if they would get a return on their investment.

    What do they do?

    • The agencies periodically re-evaluate previously assigned ratings after new developments geopolitical events or a significant economic announcement by the concerned entity.
    • Their reports are sold and published in financial and daily newspapers.

    What grading pattern do they follow?

    • The three prominent ratings agencies, viz., Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch subscribe to largely similar grading patterns.
    • Standard & Poor’s accord their highest grade, that is, AAA, to countries, equity or debt with the exceedingly high capacity to meet their financial commitments.
    • Its grading slab includes letters A, B and C with an addition a single or double letter denoting a higher grade.
    • Moody’s separates ratings into short and long-term definitions. Its longer-term grading ranges from Aaa to C, with Aaa being the highest.
    • Fitch, too, rates from AAA to D, with D being the lowest. It follows the same succession scheme as Moody’s and Fitch.

    Significance of such ratings

    • Access to Capital: Higher credit ratings mean that a country can access capital at a lower cost, while lower ratings indicate that borrowing costs will be higher.
    • Investment Decisions: Investors use credit ratings as a tool to evaluate a country’s creditworthiness and assess the level of risk associated with investing in that country.
    • Economic Growth: Higher credit ratings typically lead to increased foreign investment, which can create jobs, boost productivity, and stimulate economic growth.
    • International Trade: Countries with higher credit ratings are viewed as more stable and trustworthy, making them more attractive trading partners for other countries.
    • Reputation: Countries with lower credit ratings may be seen as less reliable or stable, which can negatively impact diplomatic relationships and political influence.

    Criticism of the rating agencies

    • Credibility: Popular ratings agencies publicly reveal their methodology, which is based on macroeconomic data publicly made available by a country, to lend credibility to their inferences.
    • Bias: These agencies were subjected to severe criticism for allegedly spurring the financial crisis in the United States, which began in 2017.
    • Fouled metrics: The agencies underestimated the credit risk associated with structured credit products and failed to adjust their ratings quickly enough to deteriorating market conditions.
    • Erroneous: They were charged for methodological errors and conflict of interest on multiple counts.

    Why is India seeking upgrade in its credit ratings?

    • Improved creditworthiness: These ratings are used to judge a country’s creditworthiness, often impacting its borrowing costs.
    • Stable indicators: India has series of stable parameters such as economic growth rate, inflation, general government debt and short-term external debt as a percentage of GDP, and political stability, among others.

    Measures taken to improve ratings

    • India aims to cut its fiscal deficit to 5.9% of GDP next fiscal year, from the 6.4% target for the current year that ends March 31, and to further reduce that to 4.5% in the next three years.
    • India’s Economic Survey has forecast growth of 6% to 6.8% for 2023-24, which would make it one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies.
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  • Explained: Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Crisis

    silicon valley

    Central idea: The shutdown and takeover of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) by US regulators has raised questions on how it impacts India’s startup industry. It was an important partner for the global startup economy.

    Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)

    • It is a financial institution that provides banking services to the technology industry and venture capital firms.
    • Founded in 1983, it has since become the go-to bank for startups and entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley and beyond.
    • It is unique in that it understands the specific needs and challenges of the tech industry, and provides a range of services that cater to startups, including loans, deposits, and investment management.
    • It has become a critical player in the startup ecosystem, providing funding and financial services to many of the world’s most successful startups, including Tesla, Uber, and LinkedIn.

    What is SVB crisis?

    • SVB Financial Group runs one of the largest American commercial banks – Silicon Valley Bank.
    • Last week, it had announced a $1.75 billion share sale programme to further strengthen its balance sheet.
    • This programme triggered a massive sell-off in the group’s shares.
    • Thereafter, market went severely bearish and bear rampage wiped out over $80 billion of its market value.
    • Alongside, the bond prices of the group collapsed and created a panic in the market.

    Reasons for SVB’s downfall

    • Downturn of tech stocks: The bank was hit hard by the downturn in technology stocks over the past year as well as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive plan to increase interest rates to combat inflation.
    • Lower bond yield due to lower interest rates: SVB bought billions of dollars’ worth of bonds over the past couple of years, using customers’ deposits as a typical bank would normally operate.
    • Mostly startups account holders: SVB’s customers were largely startups and other tech-centric companies that started becoming needier for cash over the past year.
    • Drying VC funding: Venture capital funding was drying up, companies were not able to get additional rounds of funding for unprofitable businesses.
    • Fear over deposit insurance: Since its customers were largely businesses and the wealthy, they likely were more fearful of a bank failure since their deposits were over $250,000, which is the government-imposed limit on deposit insurance.

    Immediate effects of SVB’s failure

    • Startups scramble: Many startups and other companies that relied on the bank’s services were suddenly left without access to their funds, which caused financial strain and uncertainty for these businesses.
    • Ripple effect: They now fear that they might have to pause projects or lay off or furlough employees until they could access their funds.

    Major implications for SVB

    There are two large problems remaining with Silicon Valley Bank-

    • Huge uninsured deposits: The vast majority of these were uninsured due to it’s largely startup and wealthy customer base.
    • No scope for asset reconstruction: There is no potential buyer of Silicon Valley Bank.

    Could this lead to a repeat of what happened in 2008?

    • No probability: At the moment, experts do not expect any issues to spread to the broader banking sector.
    • Diversified customer bases: Other banks are far more diversified across multiple industries, customer bases and geographies.

    Impact on Indian startups

    • Uncertainty over deposits: The failure of SVB is likely to have a ripple effect on Indian startups, many of which have significant amounts of funds deposited with the bank.
    • Hamper the funding: SVB has been a major player in the Indian startup ecosystem, providing banking services and funding to many of the country’s most successful startups, including Flipkart, Ola, and Zomato.
    • Ripple effect: This could lead to a cash crunch for many companies, which may be forced to cut costs, delay projects, or lay off employees.
    • Reduce global footprints: SVB has also been instrumental in helping Indian startups expand into the US market, by providing them with the necessary infrastructure and support to set up operations in Silicon Valley.

    How can Indian startups mitigate the impact of SVB’s failure?

    • Diversify banking relations: Indian startups that have funds deposited with SVB may want to consider diversifying their banking relationships to reduce their exposure to any one bank.
    • Alternative financing: This may involve opening accounts with multiple banks, or exploring alternative banking services such as digital banks or fintech startups.

    Back2Basics: 2008 Financial Crisis

    • The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was a key event in the 2008 financial crisis.
    • Lehman Brothers was one of the largest investment banks in the world, with assets of around $600 billion.
    • However, the firm had invested heavily in the US housing market, and when the housing market began to decline in 2007, Lehman’s investments began to lose value.
    • In addition, the firm had taken on a large amount of debt to finance its investments and operations.
    • As the value of Lehman’s assets declined and its debt levels increased, the firm became insolvent and was unable to meet its obligations to creditors.
    • In September 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, triggering a financial panic and market turmoil.

    Its impact

    • The Lehman crisis had far-reaching consequences, including the collapse of other financial institutions, a global recession, and widespread economic and social hardship.
    • The crisis highlighted the risks of excessive leverage and the interconnectedness of financial institutions, and led to significant reforms in financial regulation and risk management practices.

     

     

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  • India close to Hindu Rate of Growth: Raghuram Rajan

    hindu

    Central idea: Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has warned that India is “dangerously close to the Hindu rate of growth”.

    What is Hindu Rate of Growth?

    • The “Hindu Rate of Growth” is a term used to describe the slow growth rate of the Indian economy between the 1950s and the 1980s.
    • It was coined by the Indian economist Raj Krishna in the 1970s.
    • During this period, the Indian economy grew at an average rate of around 3.5% per year, which was much lower than other developing countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.
    • The term is considered controversial as it suggests that the slow growth rate was a result of cultural or religious factors rather than economic policies and structural issues.
    • However, the term is still used in academic and policy discussions to refer to the slow growth of the Indian economy during this period.

    Features of Hindu Rate of Growth

    The then features which led to the coining of this term were-

    • Low GDP growth rate: The term refers to the period from the 1950s to the 1980s when India’s economy grew at an average rate of around 3.5% per year, which was much lower than other developing countries.
    • Slow Industrialization: The industrial sector was dominated by a few public sector companies, and the private sector was heavily regulated.
    • Stagnant Agriculture: There was little investment in agriculture, and the sector was not given much priority in government policies.
    • License Raj: India had a socialist economic model with heavy government regulation. The License Raj system required permits and licenses for businesses, creating a bureaucratic and corrupt system that hindered innovation and entrepreneurship.
    • Import Substitution: India followed a policy of import substitution, where the government tried to develop domestic industries by protecting them from foreign competition. This led to a lack of competition, low quality of products, and high prices.
    • Inefficient Public Sector: The public sector dominated the economy, but it was inefficient, unproductive, and plagued by corruption. Public sector companies were often overstaffed and poorly managed, resulting in low productivity.
    • Lack of Foreign Investment: India was not attractive to foreign investors during this period, and there was little foreign investment in the economy. The government imposed strict controls on foreign investment, and the regulatory environment was not conducive to foreign investment.

    Concerns flagged by Rajan

    Rajan noted that India’s economic growth rate had been declining even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the country.

    (a) Decline in GDP growth rate

    • India’s economic growth rate had fallen to 4.5% in the September quarter of 2019, before the pandemic hit in early 2020.
    • During the pandemic, the Indian economy contracted sharply, with GDP falling by 7.7% in the 2020-21 fiscal year.
    • The economy has rebounded somewhat, with the IMF forecasting GDP growth of 9.5% for the current fiscal year.

    (b) Lower growth potential than hyped

    • However, Rajan noted that India’s potential growth rate is likely to be lower than in the past, due to factors such as an aging population, a decline in the working-age population, and sluggish investment.
    • He also cited the country’s poor performance on human development indicators, such as education and health, as a constraint on growth.

    Key suggestions

    • Rajan called for measures to address the structural factors that are holding back growth, such as investment in infrastructure and education, and improving the ease of doing business in India.
    • He also emphasized the importance of macroeconomic stability and maintaining fiscal discipline, to avoid inflation and currency depreciation.
    • He also called for measures to address inequality, such as better targeting of subsidies to those who need them most.

    Conclusion

    • Overall, Rajan’s remarks suggest that India faces significant challenges in maintaining high levels of economic growth, and that structural reforms will be needed to address these challenges.

     

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  • Capital Expenditure (CAPEX): Crucial Role Of The States

    Expenditure

    Central Idea

    • The budget’s clear thrust towards capital expenditure is evident in the 33% increase in its allocation. The primary goal of this allocation is to bolster aggregate demand in the short term and enhance the economy’s productive capacity in the long term. This strategy is widely regarded as beneficial, especially considering the crucial role that infrastructure plays in the growth and development of any economy.

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    Capital Expenditure of the states

    • Capex of the states exceed than the central govt: The combined spending of Indian states on capital expenditure now exceeds that of the central government.
    • For example: In 2021-22, this figure combined for states and Union territories, according to budget estimates, was ₹10.5 trillion. The Centre’s effective capital expenditure that year was ₹8.4 trillion, including ₹2.5 trillion as grant for creation of assets.

    What is Capital Expenditure (CAPEX)?

    • Capital expenditure refers to investments in upgrading existing or building new physical assets by the government or private businesses.
    • As businesses expand, capex has a multiplier effect on the economy, creating demand and unleashing animal spirits.

    Main types of Capex

    • Infrastructure development: This includes building and upgrading public infrastructure such as roads, highways, railways, ports, airports, power plants, and water supply systems.
    • Defence and security: This involve the acquisition and maintenance of defence equipment, weapons systems, and other security-related investments.
    • Social sector spending: This includes investment in areas such as education, healthcare, and social welfare programs to improve the quality of life of the citizens.
    • Rural development: This includes spending on agricultural and rural infrastructure such as irrigation systems, rural electrification, and rural housing.
    • Capital investments in public sector enterprises: The government may also invest capital in public sector enterprises to improve their efficiency and profitability

    Key reasons why the Indian government emphasizes Capex?

    • Promoting economic growth: Capital expenditure is critical for promoting economic growth by creating demand for goods and services, boosting private sector investment, and increasing employment opportunities. By investing in infrastructure, the government can provide the necessary framework for businesses to grow and thrive.
    • Improving public services: Capital expenditure is required to build and upgrade public facilities such as hospitals, schools, and water supply systems, and provide necessary equipment and supplies. This investment in public services is crucial for improving the quality of life of citizens and promoting social and economic development.
    • Infrastructure development: It is critical for promoting trade, commerce, and investment, and improving the country’s overall competitiveness. By investing in infrastructure, the government can create new economic opportunities, support the growth of existing industries, and attract foreign investment.
    • Creating employment opportunities: Capital expenditure creates employment opportunities in the short term through the construction of infrastructure projects and in the long term by supporting economic growth and promoting private sector investment.
    • Attracting private sector investment: The government’s emphasis on Capex can also help attract private sector investment by providing the necessary infrastructure and a favourable business environment.

    What are the concern over State capex?

    • Uneven capacity CAPEX: One general macro-economic challenge is to address this uneven inclination of states or capacity for capital expenditure, which adds uncertainty to the impact of an expansionary fiscal policy led by capex, thus weakening its potential benefits.
    • The ultimate aim of all CAPEX is to enhance the productive capacity of the economy: The nature of state capital expenditure drawn in is also vitally important. Ideally, the nature of state capital expenditure drawn in by central capital expenditure should be such that it dovetails with the latter to optimize long-term enhancements of economic capacity.
    • States have tendency to postpone capex: The Union budget for 2023-24 encourages states to make reforms in urban local bodies to become creditworthy for municipal bond issuance. However, states have a tendency to postpone capital expenditure until revenue streams firm up.

    Way ahead

    • States need to improve their execution capacity and establish an enabling regulatory environment to ensure quality and speed of expenditure.
    • The planning and budgeting cycle of states should also be aligned with fund releases to fully utilize resources within the available time.
    • States play a crucial role in capital expenditure and must not only budget more but also spend fully and uniformly throughout the year.

    Conclusion

    • States need to prioritize timely and efficient execution of capital expenditure and fully utilizing budgeted capital amounts uniformly throughout the year. The RBI report, while acknowledging that Indian states made higher capital outlays in 2022-23, notes that states would do well to mainstream capital planning rather than treating them as residuals and first stops for cutbacks in order to meet budgetary targets.

    Mains Question

    Q. What do you understand by Capital Expenditure (CAPEX)? Highlight the concerns over capex by the states and suggest a way ahead.

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  • PMI suggests Services activity hit 12-year high

    services

    The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the services sector in India rose to 55.3 in February. This marks the highest level of the PMI in the services sector in 12 years, driven by an increase in new business orders and employment.

    Service Sector

    The service sector, also known as the tertiary sector, includes a wide range of economic activities that are focused on providing intangible goods and services to customers.

    Some examples of activities that fall under the service sector include:

    1. Hospitality and tourism: This includes activities such as hotels, restaurants, travel agencies, and tour operators.
    2. Retail and wholesale trade: This includes businesses that buy and sell goods, such as supermarkets, department stores, and online retailers.
    3. Financial services: This includes banks, insurance companies, and investment firms.
    4. Professional and business services: This includes activities such as legal services, accounting, consulting, and advertising.
    5. Information and communication technology: This includes activities such as software development, telecommunications, and data processing.
    6. Healthcare and social assistance: This includes activities such as hospitals, clinics, nursing homes, and social services.
    7. Education and training: This includes activities such as schools, colleges, universities, and vocational training.
    8. Transportation and logistics: This includes activities such as shipping, warehousing, and distribution.

    Purchasing Managers’ Index

    • PMI is an indicator of business activity — both in the manufacturing and services sectors.
    • The S&P Global India Services PMI is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to a panel of around 400 service sector companies.
    • It is a survey-based measure that asks the respondents about changes in their perception of some key business variables from the month before.
    • It is calculated separately for the manufacturing and services sectors and then a composite index is constructed.

    How is the PMI derived?

    • The PMI is derived from a series of qualitative questions.
    • Executives from a reasonably big sample, running into hundreds of firms, are asked whether key indicators such as output, new orders, business expectations and employment were stronger than the month before and are asked to rate them.

    How does one read the PMI?

    • A figure above 50 denotes expansion in business activity. Anything below 50 denotes contraction.
    • Higher the difference from this mid-point greater the expansion or contraction. The rate of expansion can also be judged by comparing the PMI with that of the previous month data.
    • If the figure is higher than the previous month’s then the economy is expanding at a faster rate. If it is lower than the previous month then it is growing at a lower rate.

    Recent trends in Services PMI

    • For the 19th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 mark, denoting expansion.
    • There was substantial moderation in cost pressures as input prices increased at the slowest pace in almost two-and-a-half years and output charge inflation softened to a 12-month low.
    • Still, capacity pressures remained mild and jobs rose only marginally.

     

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  • What is the Expected Credit Loss (ECL) regime?

    The Reserve Bank of India is moving closer towards ring-fencing the banking system from credit losses as it proposes to move to provision on the principles of ‘expected losses’ from ‘incurred losses. ‘

    What is a Loan-Loss Provision?

    • The RBI defines a loan loss provision as an expense that banks set aside for defaulted loans.
    • Banks set aside a portion of the expected loan repayments from all loans in their portfolio to cover the losses either completely or partially.
    • In the event of a loss, instead of taking a loss in its cash flows, the bank can use its loan loss reserves to cover the loss.
    • The level of loan loss provision is determined based on the level expected to protect the safety and soundness of the bank.

    What is Expected Credit Loss (ECL) regime?

    • The Expected Credit Loss (ECL) regime is a new accounting standard that was introduced by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in response to the global financial crisis of 2008.
    • The ECL regime requires banks and other financial institutions to estimate and report the expected losses from their loan portfolios over the lifetime of the loans.
    • Under the ECL regime, financial institutions must assess the credit risk associated with each loan and estimate the expected losses that will result from default or other credit events.
    • These expected losses must be recognized in the financial institution’s accounts and reported to investors and other stakeholders.
    • Under this practice, a bank is required to estimate expected credit losses based on forward-looking estimations rather than wait for credit losses to be actually incurred before making corresponding loss provisions.

    Benefits of the ECL regime

    • ECL will result in excess provisions as compared to a shortfall in provisions, as seen in the incurred loss approach.
    • It will further enhance the resilience of the banking system in line with globally accepted norms.

    Issues with this regime

    • It requires banks to provide for losses that have already occurred or been incurred.
    • The delay in recognizing loan losses resulted in banks having to make higher levels of provisions which affected the bank’s capital.
    • This affected banks’ resilience and posed systemic risks.
    • The delays in recognizing loan losses overstated the income generated by the banks, which, coupled with dividend payouts, impacted their capital base.

     

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  • RBI’s new pilot project on Coin Vending Machines

    coin

    The RBI in collaboration with banks is set to launch a pilot project to assess the functioning of a QR-code-based coin vending machine.

    Coin Vending Machines

    • The vending machines would dispense coins with the requisite amount being debited from the customer’s account using United Payments Interface (UPI) instead of physical tendering of banknotes.
    • Customers would be endowed the option of withdrawing coins in required quantities and denominations.
    • The central idea here is to ease the accessibility to coins.
    • With particular focus on ease and accessibility, the machines are intended to be installed at public places such as railway stations, shopping malls and marketplaces.

    Why such a move?

    • Prevent hoarding of coins: The situation with respect to coins is peculiar with the supply being very high. It is taking up a lot of storage space and is not getting properly distributed despite high demands.
    • Eliminate the physical tendering of banknotes: It was observed that the currency being fed into the machines (for coin exchange) were often found to be fake and could not be checked right at that point of time.

    Do you know?

    For perspective, coins in India are issued in denominations of 50 paise, one rupee, two rupees, five rupees, ten rupees and twenty rupees (not considering special edition coins of various denomination).

    Coins of up to 50 paise are called ‘small coins’ while those of one rupee and above are called ‘rupee coins’.

     

    How coins are significant in our economy?

    • As per the latest RBI bulletin, the total value of circulation of rupee coins stood at ₹28,857 crore as of December 30 last year. The figure is an increase of 7.2% from the year-ago period.
    • Circulation of small coins remained unchanged at ₹743 crore.
    • The figures above could be compared to the volume of digital payments until December 2022 which stood at approximately ₹9,557.4 crore, as per the Digidhan Dashboard.
    • The number is inclusive of mobile banking, internet banking, IMPS, BHIM-UPI and NEFT, among others.
    • Hence the reliance on UPI for dispensing coins is particularly noteworthy.

    Is it going against the digital push?

    • RBI is in the midst of a pilot for the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
    • But this proposal should not be viewed as a “zero-sum game of digital versus cash.”
    • The two can easily supplement each other by re-circulating existing coins in the economy.

     

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