Why in the News?
Recently, PM released the IMD’s Vision Document 2047, outlining a plan to achieve nearly perfect weather forecasts for up to three days and 90% accuracy for forecasts made five days ahead by 2047.
What is IMD’s Vision Document 2047?
- The Vision Document aims for zero-error forecast accuracy for up to three days lead time and 90% accuracy for forecasts issued five days in advance by 2047. This ambitious target reflects India’s commitment to improving weather forecasting capabilities significantly.
- Focus Areas: The document emphasises enhancing weather surveillance technologies, improving atmospheric observations, and leveraging high-performance computing systems.
- It also highlights the importance of developing advanced earth system models and data-driven methods, including the use of AI and machine learning.
Why does India need an Earth warning system?
- High Seismic Vulnerability: India lies in a seismically active zone, with regions like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and the Northeast being particularly earthquake-prone. Early warning systems can help reduce damage and save lives in these areas. Example: The 2001 Gujarat earthquake caused widespread devastation.
- Risk to Dense Urban Areas: Major cities like Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata are vulnerable to earthquakes. Early warnings can help evacuate people, protect infrastructure, and minimize casualties. Example: A strong earthquake in Delhi could severely impact millions.
- Limited Preparedness and Response Time: Earthquakes give little to no time for people to react. A warning system could provide crucial seconds or minutes to activate emergency protocols, limiting loss of life and property. Example: The 2015 Nepal earthquake caused devastation in northern India.
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How can India achieve zero-error accuracy in forecasting disasters?
- Technological Advancements: The implementation of Mission Mausam involves deploying next-generation radars, satellites with advanced instruments, and high-performance computing systems. These tools are crucial for improving the precision of weather predictions.
- Data Assimilation and Modeling: Enhancing data assimilation processes and developing improved earth system models will contribute to better forecasting accuracy. The integration of AI/ML tools is expected to refine weather predictions further.
- Capacity Building: The initiative will also focus on building capacity within meteorological services to ensure that no severe weather events go undetected. This includes training personnel and enhancing operational frameworks for the timely dissemination of forecasts.
What are the steps taken by the Indian Government in the past year?
- Amendment of the Disaster Management Act: In August 2024, the government introduced the Disaster Management (Amendment) Bill, 2024, in the Lok Sabha.
- This bill proposes the establishment of Urban Disaster Management Authorities for state capitals and large cities, the creation of disaster databases at national and state levels, and the formation of State Disaster Response Forces to strengthen disaster response capabilities.
- Investment in Urban Flood Mitigation: In August 2024, India announced plans to invest nearly $300 million over two years to mitigate urban flooding and conserve water in major cities, including Mumbai, Chennai, and Bengaluru.
- The initiative focuses on expanding water bodies like lakes and constructing drainage systems to manage excessive rainfall during monsoon seasons.
- Addressing Urban Heat Islands: In June 2024, government officials acknowledged that rapid urbanization has turned cities into “heat traps,” exacerbating the effects of heatwaves.
- Efforts are underway to implement heat action plans, which include provisioning drinking water, improving medical facilities, rescheduling outdoor work, and increasing green spaces to mitigate urban heat.
- Enhancement of Early Warning Systems: The government has been working to improve early warning systems for various natural disasters, including floods and heatwaves, to provide timely alerts and reduce the impact on vulnerable populations.
- Capacity Building and Training: There has been a focus on training and capacity building for disaster response teams at both national and state levels. For instance, In 2024, the NDRF organised a multi-agency mock drill in Assam to simulate a response to a major flood disaster.
What are the challenges in forecasting a disaster?
- Data Gaps and Limited Technology: Forecasting requires high-quality, real-time data from advanced technologies like satellite imagery, weather radars, and seismic sensors. However, data scarcity in remote areas or regions with underdeveloped infrastructure hampers accurate predictions.
- Example: The 2013 Kedarnath floods in India resulted from a cloudburst that was not forecasted in time due to a lack of localized meteorological data and advanced radar systems.
- Unpredictability of Natural Phenomena: Some disasters, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, are inherently unpredictable because they result from sudden geological shifts.
- Example: The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami followed a massive earthquake, but the lack of a regional tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean made it impossible to alert affected countries in time.
- Challenges in Communication and Dissemination: Even when forecasts are accurate, ineffective communication of warnings to vulnerable populations due to language barriers, poor outreach, or lack of awareness can render forecasts ineffective.
- Example: During Cyclone Tauktae (2021) in India, while the forecast was accurate, several fishermen ignored warnings to evacuate, leading to fatalities despite advanced cyclone prediction systems.
Way forward:
- Strengthen Technological and Data Capabilities: Invest in localized weather stations, advanced radar systems, and seismic sensors in remote areas, while leveraging AI and machine learning for precise forecasting and real-time data integration.
- Enhance Community Awareness and Communication: Develop multilingual, accessible early warning systems and conduct regular public awareness campaigns to ensure timely dissemination and community readiness during disasters.
Mains PYQ:
Q Discuss the recent measures initiated in disaster management by the Government of India departing from the earlier reactive approach. (UPSC IAS/2020)
