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Type: Op-ed

  • Weakening financial capacity of States

    The financial health of the States has been declining in the last several years. The article explains the reasons and its implications for the States.

    Role of States in development

    • State governments drive a majority of the country’s development programmes.
    • Greater numbers of people depend on these programmes for their livelihood, development, welfare and security.
    • States need resources to deliver these responsibilities and aspirations.

    Factors responsible for declining discal capacity of the States

    1) Declining devolution to State

    • Finance Commissions recommend the share of States in the taxes raised by the Union government and recommendations are normally adhered to.
    • The year 2014-15 commenced with a shock: actual devolution was 14% less than the Finance Commission’s projection.
    • Between 2014-15 and 2019-20, the States got ₹7,97,549 crore less than what was projected by the Finance Commission.

    2) Cess and surcharge

    • Various cesses and surcharges levied by the Union government are retained fully by it, they do not go into the divisible pool.
    • This allows the Centre to raise revenues, yet not share them with the States.
    • Hence, the Union government imposes or increases cesses and surcharges instead of taxes wherever possible and, in some cases, even replaces taxes with cesses and surcharges.
    • As a result, the States lose out on their share.
    • Between 2014-15 and 2019-20, cesses and surcharges soared from 9.3% to 15% of the gross tax revenue of the Union government.
    • This systematic rise ensures that the revenue that is fully retained by the Union government increases at the cost of the revenue that is shared with the States.
    • This government has exploited this route to reduce the size of the divisible pool.

    3) GST shortfall

    • Shortfalls have been persistent and growing from the inception of GST.
    • Compensations have been paid from the GST cess revenue.
    • GST cesses are levied on luxury or sin goods on top of the GST.
    • GST compensation will end with 2021-22. But cesses will continue.
    • With the abnormal exception of this year, the years ahead will generate similar or more cess revenue.
    • Hence, many States have been insisting outside and inside the GST Council that the Union government should borrow this year’s GST shortfall in full and release it to the States.
    • The Union government will not have to pay a rupee of this debt or interest.
    • The entire loan can be repaid out of the assured cess revenue that will continue to accrue beyond 2022.
    • Of the nearly ₹3 lakh crore GST shortfall to the States, the Centre will only compensate ₹1.8 lakh crore.
    • The States will not get the remaining ₹1.2 lakh crore this year.
    • In fact, it flies against the need of the hour to revive the economy.
    • Governments ought to spend money this year to stimulate demand.

    4) Declining grants from the Centre

    • Central grants are also likely to drop significantly this year.
    • For instance,₹31,570 crore was allocated as annual grants to Karnataka.
    • Actual grants may be down to ₹17,372 crore.

    Implications for the States

    • To overcome such extreme blows to their finances and discharge their welfare and development responsibilities, the States are now forced to resort to colossal borrowings.
    • Repayment burden will overwhelm State budgets for several years.
    • The fall in funds for development and welfare programmes will adversely impact the livelihoods of crores of Indians.
    • The economic growth potential cannot be fully realised.
    • Adverse consequences will be felt in per capita income, human resource development and poverty.
    • This is a negative sum game.

    5) Loss of financial autonomy due to GST

    Consider the question “What are the reasons for the declining financial health of the States in India? What are the implications for the States? Suggest the ways to deal with the issue.”

    Conclusion

    States are at the forefront of development and generation of opportunities and growth. Strong States lead to a stronger India. The systematic weakening of States serves neither federalism nor national interest.

  • Free speech in France

    The article analyses the secularism in France and its its implications for the French society.

    Education about secularism in France

    • In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, state school teachers were responsible for converting young people in rural France away from the heavy hand of Catholic dogma, and they spearheaded efforts to “educate” and “civilise” indigenous peoples in the French colonies.
    • In recent decades, teachers have been charged with trying to “integrate” France’s myriad ethnic minority communities.
    • Of the many things that teachers are expected to do, one of the most important is to embody the principles of laïcité.
    • Often translated as ‘secularism’, laïcité is better understood as a project of social cohesion and a key component of French citizenship.
    • It encompass the formal separation of Church and State, but also the evacuation of religious values from the public space and their replacement with secular values such as liberty, equality, and fraternity.

    How should France respond to terrorist attacks in name of Islam

    1) Compromise

    • This compromise would involve acknowledging that laïcité alone cannot fix the country’s social and political problems.
    • It would also require the French state to recognise that France has — almost without realising it — become part of the Muslim world.
    • It cannot stand apart from conflicts over religious practice that have affected countries with much larger Muslim populations, from Morocco to Indonesia.

    2) Emphasize the French values

    • Another way would be to double down on French “values”.
    • This is the path that President Emmanuel Macron has chosen.
    • He and his cabinet have spent a lot of time in recent weeks emphasising the importance of laïcité and denouncing all those who are seen to threaten it.
    • But this strategy is a risky one.
    • For a start, it is almost guaranteed to elicit a hostile response from leaders of Muslim-majority countries, many of whom are keen to find an international issue that can distract from their own domestic problems.

    Conclusion

    So, while it might seem like a good strategy to use the idea of laïcité as a shield against an amorphous Muslim threat, the danger is that this will strip it of its most positive elements and render it useless as an instrument of social integration. That, more than any terror attack, would be a tragedy for all French people.

  • Pondering on the free speech

    The article discusses the issues with blaming the expression of free speech for the violence inflicted by the people opposed to the ideas.

    Context

    • The beheading of a teacher in France has brought to the fore the issue of free speech.
    • It is argued that there is a need to respect people’s religion and not be provocative in the aftermath of the gruesome killing.

    Issues related to free speech

    1) Free-speecher’s burden

    • The fact that a barbaric, crazy man can either get offended or inspired by either of the conflicting ideas cannot be a “free-speecher’s” burden.
    • Should any protest or campaign be mindful of a potential violent twist that may be given to their ideas?
    • Should a causal link between the expression of “offensive ideas” and sufferance of bodies allow violent zealots to hold the right to ransom?

    2) Existence of ideas in person

    • Ideas have no real, independent existence outside of the bodies in which they inhere.
    • Had ideas lived autonomously, independent of the bodies and minds that carry them, ideas would not die.
    • But we don’t. And the reason is that some ideas die or weaken over time.
    • They become anomalous and discredited either because they are disputed scientifically or because they are contested vigorously and passionately till an anachronistic idea is defeated.

    3) Ideas could be good or bad

    • In the conflicting terrain of ideas, lies the kernel of social change.
    • Ideas could be good or bad.
    • How else, except through a conflict of ideas, do women contest patriarchy and push back on received gendered ideas of womanhood?

    Issues with arguing on free-speech outside context

    • First, as academic Ghassan Hage summed up in his Facebook post: Truth also needs to have its ethics.
    • You may be truthful, but unethical.
    • The beheading of French teacher requires us to dwell on not just any killing but the barbarism behind it.
    • To dwell instead on the genealogies and causes of violent behaviour is bad ethics, for it ends up being nothing more than an apologia for violence.
    • Second, it’s bad politics.
    • The right to free speech empowers and enables many marginalised lives.
    • It is a basic right that preconditions the realisation of other rights.
    • So basic that it enables the weak and the oppressed to rise against their oppressors.

    Conclusion

    In any case, free speech is restrained by the state through its many criteria of “reasonableness”. To further circumscribe it by burdening it with plausible violent appropriations, or with historical conditionalities, is to feed the logic of violence against freedom of expression.

  • Consolidation of quad reflects India’s political will

    Quad as new feature of Indo-Pacific

    • Australia’s participation in the Malabar exercises marks the emergence of the Quad as a new feature of the Indo-Pacific geopolitics.
    • The question is India’s ability to take full advantage of the possibilities after the US elections to construct a wide range of new international coalitions.
    • Likely changes could envelop a range of old institutions like the Five Eyes and the G-7 grouping that coordinates Western policies on global economic management.
    • We could also see the creation of a new League of Democracies that will addres issues like including the defence of shared values, commerce, corruption, taxation, climate change and digital governance.

    Phases of India’s international aspiration

    • The consolidation of the Quad reflects the political will in Delhi to break free from old shibboleths and respond to security imperatives.
    • The post-Quad era opens a new phase in which India, for the first time, can help shape global institutions.
    • First phase: Idealism was the hallmark of India’s internationalism in the 1950s, the harsh politics of the Cold War quickly dampened it.
    • Second phase: In the 1970s, India embraced the radical agenda of a New International Economic Order, as the leader of the Non-Aligned Movement and the Group of 77. The results were meagre.
    • Third phase began with the end of the Cold War.
    • And as India’s own economic model collapsed, India had to focus on economic reform and prevent the world from intruding too much into its internal affairs.
    • The fear of the US activism on Kashmir and nuclear issues saw Delhi turn to Russia and China in search of a “multipolar world” that could constrain American power.
    • The BRICS forum with Russia, China, Brazil and South Africa became emblematic of this strategy.
    • Delhi also figured out that it was not possible for BRICS to constrain Beijing, since China was so much bigger than the other four members put together.
    • Fourth phase in India’s multilateralism is marked by three features — the relative rise in Delhi’s international standing, the breakdown of the great power consensus on economic globalisation, and the breakout of the US-China rivalry.

    Efforts to tackle China

    • The Trump administration has already sought to imagine the Quad’s possibilities beyond the defence domain.
    • The invitation to India to join a Five Eyes meeting came amidst the bipartisan calls in the US Congress for the expansion of the forum and the inclusion of India.
    • The “Quad Plus” dialogue has variously drawn in Brazil, Israel, New Zealand, South Korea, and Vietnam for consultations with the Quad members on coordinating the responses to the pandemic.
    • India is also engaged with Japan and Australia in developing resilient supply chains to reduce the reliance on China.
    • President Trump has proposed the expansion of G-7 grouping to include Australia, India, Russia and South Korea.
    • The last few months has seen the Trump administration promote a “Clean Network” that eliminates untrustworthy vendors from telecom systems, digital apps, trans-oceanic cables and cloud infrastructure.
    • Clean Network is now a broader effort to build secure technology ecosystems among like-minded countries.
    • Britain is said to be developing plans to convene a coalition of 10 democracies, including India, that can contribute to the construction of secure 5G networks and reduce the current dependence on China.
    • France and Canada have invited India to join the Global Partnership on artificial intelligence that now includes 15 countries.
    • The objective is to promote responsible development of AI that is consistent with shared democratic values.

    Conclusion

    Delhi’s participation in the sweeping rearrangement of the global structures will have major consequences for India’s economic prosperity and technological future. Unlike in the past, Delhi now has the resources, leverage and political will to make a difference to the global order

  • The shifting trajectory of India’s foreign policy

    The article analyses the impact of India’s growing engagement with the U.S. on relations on India’s foreign policy.

    What signing of  BECA mean

    • The centrepiece of the third 2+2 dialogue was the signing of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) for Geo-Spatial Cooperation.
    • With the signing of BECA, India is now a signatory to all U.S.-related foundational military agreements.
    • Built into the agreements are provisions for a two-way exchange of information.
    • India had signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), in 2016, and the Communications, Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), in 2018.
    • By appending its signature to BECA, India is in a position to specifically receive sensitive geo-spatial intelligence.
    • The foundational military pacts effectively tie India to the wider U.S. strategic architecture in the region.

    Issues with signing BECA

    • With the signing of these agreements, India’s claims of maintaining strategic autonomy will be doubtful.
    • By signing BECA, India has signed on to becoming part of the wider anti-China ‘coalition of the willing’ led by the U.S.
    • By signing on to BECA at this juncture, India has effectively jettisoned its previous policy of neutrality, and of maintaining its equi-distance from power blocs.

    Impact on relations with China

    • China-India relations have never been easy.
    • Since 1988, India has pursued, despite occasional problems, a policy which put a premium on an avoidance of conflicts with China.
    • This will now become increasingly problematic as India gravitates towards the U.S. sphere of influence.
    • India’s willingness to sign foundational military agreements with the U.S. would suggest that India has made its choice, which can only exacerbate already deteriorating China-India relations.

    Impact on the relations in the region

    • India needs to pay greater attention at this time to offset its loss of influence in its immediate neighbourhood (in South Asia), and in its extended neighbourhood (in West Asia).
    • Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh, normally perceived to be within India’s sphere of influence, currently seem to be out of step with India’s approach on many issues.
    • At the same time, both China and the U.S. separately, seem to be making inroads and enlarging their influence here.
    • The Maldives, for instance, has chosen to enter into a military pact with the U.S. to counter Chinese expansionism in the Indian Ocean region.
    • India needs to ensure that the latest UAE-Israel linkage does not adversely impact India’s interests in the region.
    • India must also not rest content with the kind of relations it has with Israel, as Tel Aviv has its own distinct agenda in West Asia.
    • Furthermore, India needs to devote greater attention to try and restore India-Iran ties which have definitely frayed in recent years.

    India’s role in Afghanistan

    • India must decide on how best to try and play a role in Afghanistan without getting stuck.
    • India had subscribed to an anti-Taliban policy and was supportive of the Northern Alliance (prior to 2001).
    • The new policy that dictates India’s imperatives today, finds India not unwilling to meet the Taliban.
    • India must decide how a shift in policy at this time would serve India’s objectives in Afghanistan, considering the tremendous investment it has made in recent decades to shore up democracy in that country.

    India’s role in SCO and NAM

    • SCO, which has China and Russia as its main protagonists — and was conceived as an anti-NATO entity — will test India’s diplomatic skills.
    • Even though India currently has a detached outlook, vis-à-vis the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), and has increasingly distanced itself from the African and Latin American group in terms of policy prescriptions, matters could get aggravated, following India’s new alliance patterns.
    • It would be a rude awakening for India, if it is seen as no longer a stellar member of NAM.

    Impact on relations with Russia

    • The impact of India signing on to U.S.-related foundational military agreements, cannot but impact India-Russia relations.
    • India-Russia relations in recent years have not been as robust as in the pre-2014 period, but many of the edifices that sustained the relationship at optimum levels, including annual meetings between the Russian President and the Indian Prime Minister have remained.
    • It is difficult to see how this can be sustained, if India is seen increasingly going into the U.S. embrace.
    • Almost certainly in the circumstances, India can hardly hope to count on Russia as a strategic ally.
    • This is one relationship which India will need to handle with skill and dexterity, as it would be a tragedy if India-Russia relations were to deteriorate at a time when the world is in a state of disorder.

    Consider the question “What are the implications of India’s signing of foundational military agreements with the U.S. for India’s relations with the other countries”

    Conclusion

    While India moves towards more robust engagement with the U.S., it must also consider impact of such move on the relations with the other countries.

     

  • Need for Sponge cities Mission in India

    Issue of flood in the cities

    • Over 50 peple died in the wake of torrential rains in the third week of October in Hyderabad.
    • This experience is not unique to the city of Hyderabad, five years ago Chennai saw a massive flood costing much damage and lives.
    • Gurugram over the past few years comes to a complete standstill during the monsoon months.
    • And for Mumbai, the monsoon has become synonymous with flooding and enormous damages.

    Causes of frequent urban floods:

    Natural:

    • Meteorological Factors: Heavy rainfall, cyclonic storms and thunderstorms causes water to flow quickly through paved urban areas and impound in low lying areas.
    • Hydrological Factors: Overbank flow channel networks, occurrence of high tides impeding the drainage in coastal cities.
    • Climate Change: Climate change due to various anthropogenic events has led to extreme weather events.

    Anthropological:

    • Unplanned Urbanization: Unplanned Urbanization is the key cause of urban flooding. A major concern is blocking of natural drainage pathways through construction activity and encroachment on catchment areas, riverbeds and lakebeds.
    • Destruction of lakes: A major issue in India cities. Lakes can store the excess water and regulate the flow of water. However, pollution of natural urban water bodies and converting them for development purposes has increased risk of floods.
    • Unauthorised colonies and excess construction: Reduced infiltration due paving of surfaces which decreases ground absorption and increases the speed and amount of surface flow
    • Poor Solid Waste Management System: Improper waste management system and clogging of storm-water drains because of silting, accumulation of non-biodegradable wastes and construction debris.
    • Drainage System: Old and ill maintained drainage system is another factor making cities in India vulnerable to flooding.
    • Irresponsible steps: Lack of attention to natural hydrological system and lack of flood control measures.

    Impact of the devastation due to floods:

    • On economy: Damage to infrastructure, roads and settlements, industrial production, basic supplies, post disaster rehabilitation difficulties etc.
    • On human population and wildlife: Trauma, loss of life, injuries and disease outbreak, contamination of water etc.
    • On environment: Loss of habitat, tree and forest cover, biodiversity loss and large scale greenery recovery failure.
    • On transport and communication: Increased traffic congestion, disruption in rail services, disruption in communication- on telephone, internet cables causing massive public inconvenience.

    What is to be done

    1) Management of wetlands

    • We neglect the issues of incremental land use change, particularly of those commons which provide us with necessary ecological support — wetlands.
    •  We need to start paying attention to the management of our wetlands by involving local communities.
    • The risk is going to increase year after year with changing rainfall patterns and a problem of urban terrain which is incapable of absorbing, holding and discharging water.

    2) Implementing the idea of sponge cities

    • The idea of a sponge city is to make cities more permeable so as to hold and use the water which falls upon it.
    • Sponge cities absorb the rain water, which is then naturally filtered by the soil and allowed to reach urban aquifers.
    • This allows for the extraction of water from the ground through urban or peri-urban wells.
    • This water can be treated easily and used for city water supply.
    • In built form, this implies contiguous open green spaces, interconnected waterways, and channels and ponds across neighbourhoods that can naturally detain and filter water.
    • It implies support for urban ecosystems, bio-diversity and newer cultural and recreational opportunities,
    • These can all be delivered effectively through an urban mission along the lines of the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT), National Heritage City Development and Augmentation Yojana (HRIDAY) and Smart Cities Mission.

    On a top priority, such a mission should address the following.

    • 1) Wetland policy: In most of our lakes, the shallow ends, which often lie beyond the full tank level, have disappeared.
    • These shallow ends are best characterised as wetlands.
    • Regardless of ownership, land use on even this small scale needs to be regulated by development control.
    • 2) Watershed management and emergency drainage plan is next.
    • This should be clearly enunciated in policy and law.
    • 3) Ban against terrain alteration is third.
    • Lasting irreversible damage has been done to the city by builders, property owners, and public agencies by flattening terrain and altering drainage routes.
    • 4) Use of porus material: Our cities are becoming increasingly impervious to water, not just because of increasing built up but also because of the nature of materials used.
    • To improve the city’s capacity to absorb water, new porous materials and technologies must be encouraged or mandated across scales.
    • Examples of these technologies are bioswales and retention systems, permeable material for roads and pavement, drainage systems which allow storm water to trickle into the ground, green roofs and harvesting systems in buildings.

    Conclusion

    We can learn to live with nature, we can regulate human conduct through the state and we can strategically design where we build. We need to urgently rebuild our cities such that they have the sponginess to absorb and release water without causing so much misery and so much damage to the most vulnerable of our citizens, as we have seen.

  • Allaying the fears of farmers over MSP regime

    Question of MSP regime while arguing in favour of recently passed agri bills has made the farmers apprehensive of the purpose of the bill. The article argues for allaying the fears of the farmers and explains the salience of the MSP.

    Flawed argument over MSP

    • The recently enacted farm bills have triggered debate on the desirability of the MSP regime.
    • But, the bills do not facilitate a policy to do away with Minimum Support Prices (MSPs).
    • The bills allow free entry to agents who wish to set up markets — whether they be private individuals, producer collectives or cooperatives.
    • This means that the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and other associated agencies can procure in the traditional mandis, or in a new market established under this law — or in their own backyard.
    • So, the argument that if the mandis cease to exist, the procurement will also cease is, in fact, flawed.
    • Supporters of the bills have quoted the Shanta Kumar committee’s figures to argue that MSPs are anyway irrelevant for most of the farmers in the country.
    • This linkage of the farm bills with the MSP only adds to the apprehension that farmers have about the bills.

    Significance of MSP

    • It is true that the procurement has remained confined to only a few crops.
    • But the benefits to the farmers even beyond Punjab and Haryana are certainly not negligible.
    • It is true that only a small fraction benefits directly from the procurement.
    • But one cannot ignore the indirect benefit of this to all foodgrain producers in the country.
    • As the procurement significantly exceeds the PDS requirement, this creates additional demand in the foodgrain market, pushing up the prices.
    • This has been a great help for all the grain producers in the country, especially when the international prices have remained low for a long time now.
    • The RBI’s annual report of 2017-18 on impact of MSP on the food prices conclusively shows that MSP is a leading factor influencing the output prices of the farm produce in the entire country.
    • The issue of MSP is all the more important for rain-fed agriculturists, being deprived of irrigation, they don’t derive benefit from subsidies on electricity and fertiliser as their use is limited.
    • So, at the moment, the only state support these farmers (primarily cotton and pulse producers) have is that of MSPs.

    Conclusion

    The debate on whom and how the state should support is an issue that should be addressed independently of the farm acts. Presenting these acts as an alternative to MSPs will not persuade farmers.

  • Countering deepfakes, the most serious AI threat

    Deepfakes poses threaten the society at various level due to their disruptive potential. The article explains the threat and suggest the measures to deal with the threat. 

    Understanding deepfakes

    • Deepfakes are the digital media (video, audio, and images) manipulated using Artificial Intelligence.
    • This synthetic media content is referred to as deepfakes.
    •  They make it possible to fabricate media — swap faces, lip-syncing, and puppeteer.
    • Access to commodity cloud computing, algorithms, and abundant data has created a perfect storm to democratise media creation and manipulation.
    • Synthetic media can create possibilities and opportunities for all people.
    •  But as with any new innovative technology, it can be weaponised to inflict harm.

    Threat posed by deepfakes

    • Deepfakes, hyper-realistic digital falsification, can inflict damage to individuals, institutions, businesses and democracy.
    • Nation-state actors with geopolitical aspirations, ideological believers, violent extremists, and economically motivated enterprises can manipulate media narratives using deepfakes, with easy and unprecedented reach and scale.
    • Pornographic deepfakes can threaten, intimidate, and inflict psychological harm and reduce women to sexual objects.
    • Deepfakes can be deployed to extract money, confidential information, or exact favours from individuals.
    • Deepfakes can cause short- and long-term social harm and accelerate the already declining trust in news media.
    • Such an erosion can contribute to a culture of factual relativism, fraying the increasingly strained civil society fabric.

    Undermining democracy

    • A deepfake can also aid in altering the democratic discourse and undermine trust in institutions and impair diplomacy.
    • False information about institutions, public policy, and politicians powered by a deepfake can be exploited to spin the story and manipulate belief.
    • A deepfake of a political candidate can sabotage their image and reputation.
    • Voters can be confused and elections can be disrupted.
    • A high-quality deepfake can inject compelling false information that can cast in doubt the voting process and election results.
    • Deepfakes contribute to factual relativism and enable authoritarian leaders to thrive.
    • Another concern is a liar’s dividend; an undesirable truth is dismissed as deepfake or fake news.

    Solution to the problem

    • Media literacy for consumers and journalists is the most effective tool to combat disinformation and deepfakes.
    • Improving media literacy is a precursor to addressing the challenges presented by deepfakes.
    • Meaningful regulations with a collaborative discussion with the technology industry, civil society, and policymakers can facilitate disincentivising the creation and distribution of malicious deepfakes.
    • We also need easy-to-use and accessible technology solutions to detect deepfakes, authenticate media, and amplify authoritative sources.

    Conclusion

    Deepfakes can create possibilities for all people. However, as access to synthetic media technology increases, so does the risk of exploitation. To counter the menace of deepfakes, we all must take the responsibility to be a critical consumer of media on the Internet, think and pause before we share on social media, and be part of the solution to this infodemic.

  • The challenges of walking the Indo-Pacific talk

    The article analyses the similarity, differences and limitations of the Quad and the Indo-Pacific construct and delineate the challenges India as it seeks to deal with China.

    Expectations from India in countering China

    • During the mid-2000s the world expected India to be an economic powerhouse, a decade later, those expectations remain modest, at best.
    • The international community has once again decided to court New Delhi to play a decisive role in shaping the region’s strategic future.
    • The expectation this time is more strategic and military, to lead the charge against China from within the region.

    Role of India in the Quad and similarity with Indo-Pacific construct

    • Quad is a forum for strategic and military consultations among India, the U.S., Australia and Japan.
    • Quad members are also major States in the Indo-Pacific region.
    • Both the Quad and the Indo-Pacific constructs are focused on China.
    • More so, they are also in some ways centred around India’s geographic location and its policies.
    • Put differently, if you take China out of the equation, they would have little rationale for existence.
    • If you take India out of the picture, their ability to sustain as geopolitical constructs would drastically diminish.

    Differences between  Indo-Pacific Construct and Quad

    • The Indo-Pacific is a politico-economic vision and the Quad is a military-strategic vision which does not form the military or strategic nucleus of the first.
    • While the Indo-Pacific provides a complex political and economic picture with a hesitant, but growing, articulation of China as a strategic challenge.
    • The Quad is inherently more anti-China in character and intent.
    • The Indo-Pacific,will find it impossible to avoid engaging China, the Quad is mostly focused on diplomatic signalling and with little common intent let alone joint action.
    • Quad’s ability to succeed would entirely depend on China — the more aggressive China gets, the more resolute the Quad countries would be in strengthening it.

    Comparing Indio-Pacific with BRI

    • The BRI is far more advanced, much more thought-out, and enjoyes the support of Chinese state.
    • Several Indo-Pacific countries are already members of the BRI.
    • On the flip side, the BRI is already under immense stress from its inherent weaknesses, such as China’s unilateral pursuit of the BRI and the associated economic burdens on the States that sign up to it.

    Challenges India face

    1) On economic front

    • There must be strong economic partnerships and linkages among its members, merely focusing on strategic talk and possible military cooperation will not work.
    • India’s recent decision not to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), could potentially complicate the country’s future engagements in the region.
    • Also worryinng is the already huge gap between India and China on trade with almost every Indo-Pacific country.
    • This growing trade gap will be a major determining factor in shaping the region’s strategic realities.
    • Institutional engagement: India does not have FTAs with Australia, New Zealand, the U.S., Bangladesh and the Maldives. It has FTAs with South Korea, the Association of South East Asian Nations, or ASEAN, Japan and Sri Lanka.
    • In the case of China, it has FTAs with all these countries barring the U.S.

    2) On strategic and military front

    • India strategic and military engagements in the region also fall short.
    • Beijing is a major defence supplier to several of the region’s States including Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand.
    • This dwarfs India’s minimal sales, defence dialogues and occasional joint military exercises in the region.

    Way forward

    • India’s role in the Indo-Pacific will remain limited if it does not prove to be a major economic partner to these States.
    • But given the economic slowdown in India today in the wake of COVID-19 and the lack of political consensus about RCEP, India’s ability to economically engage with the region remains limited.
    • On the military-strategic side too, India’s performance in the region is less than desirable.
    • The only choice, it appears then, is for some sort of a loosely structured regional strategic alliance with the U.S. and its allies in the broader Indo-Pacific region.

    Consider the question ” What are the similarities and differences in the Quad and the Indo-Pacific construct? What are the challenges India faces as it increases its engagement in the both.” 

    Conclusion

    India remains caught between a deeply constrained, but unavoidable, need to rethink its strategic posture, and the recognition of its material inability to do so, at least for now.

  • Excessive optimism over a pact with election-bound US is premature

    The growing pace of India-US bilateral engagement has raised hopes in several quarters. However, there are several issues that must be considered and need to avoid excessive optimism. 

    Timing of 2+2 dialogue

    • The India-US 2+2 third meeting was held in Delhi only a week before the US presidential elections.
    • The government felt that it was important to seal the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) without delay.
    • Other reason could be government’s assessment that there is bipartisan support in the US for higher and positive bilateral ties.

    Need for caution in India’s approach

    • In India-US ties, the leading outside consideration is China.
    • A Biden presidency, should that be the choice of the American people, would seek to ensure that China’s rise is not at the cost of the US’s global pre-eminence.
    • However, the strategy and methods it employs would be different from that of its predecessor.
    • Further, even a Trump 2 administration, with the election done, may change course in its China approach.
    • Hence, caution and prudence are good diplomatic watchwords.
    • It is good that the agreements for a full defence engagement with the US are in place.
    • But it is one matter to have them done and an entirely different one insofar as the nature and intensity of cooperation.
    • So, India’s tradition of relying on its own strengths in matters of national security should not be eroded in the hope that an outside power would provide useful inputs.

    Alliance Vs. Partnership

    • India-US ties are in the framework of a partnership, not an alliance.
    • The partnership may not be based on opposition to an outside element, the alliance almost always is.
    • Alliances also demand a much higher price than partnerships, through loss of autonomy if the ally is a bigger power.

    Excessive enthusiasm on Quad may be premature

    • The 2+2 joint statement does not name China but its thrust is clear.
    • The Quad is based on a commonality of concerns on account of China’s actions.
    • India’s decision to go along with a more purposive group, including through its maritime exercises, is in keeping with its interests.
    • The real direction that the Quad will take has to await the US’s overall China strategy over the next few years.
    • Excessive enthusiasm on the Quad front may, therefore, be premature.

    Way forward

    • India has to change the nature of its economic and commercial ties with China.
    • Thus, the joint statement’s reference on the need to “enhance supply chain resilience and to seek alternatives to the current paradigm” was timely, though here, again, the future US approach is not entirely certain.
    • The areas where the bilateral partnership has the potential of evolving most positively for India relate to health, education and science and technology.
    • There should not be any reluctance in developing ties in defence industries, too, but it cannot be forgotten that no country will part with any of its critical technologies.
    • But there cannot be a substitute for developing indigenous capacity for India’s needs for weapon systems.

    Conclusion

    India-US ties will move positively forward but there will be imponderables ahead, principally arising out of US strategies towards China. But, a close embrace of another country is always problematic.