Mains Ready By December. Smash Mains & Smash PYQ Admissions Open
Talk to Mentor

Civilsdaily

GS Paper: GS2-18.Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

  • Explained: European Union’s ban on Russian Oil

    As part of the sixth package of sanctions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union member states reached an agreement to ban 90% of Russian crude oil imports by the end of the year.

    Oil embargo on Russia

    • The proposal is to completely phase out Russian crude and refined products from EU territory.
    • It includes a complete import ban on all Russian oil, seaborne and pipeline crude and refined.
    • This however needed the agreement of all the 27 EU member states in order to be implemented.

    What was the rationale behind such a move?

    • The Russian economy is heavily dependent on energy exports, with the EU paying billions of dollars every month to Russia.
    • The EU wants to block this massive revenue inflow.
    • This is akin to Europeans bankrolling Russia’s war.

    Why such a move now?

    • The EU has been attempting, ever since the Ukraine invasion, to build consensus on ways to hurt Russia economically.
    • The most obvious route was to stop buying Russian energy, which isn’t easy given European households’ dependence on Russian oil and gas.

    What are the terms of the ‘compromise deal’ that has been agreed upon?

    • EU leaders have agreed to ban all seaborne imports of Russian crude, which account for two-thirds of EU’s oil imports from Russia.
    • Germany and Poland are pledging to phase out even their pipeline imports from Russia by the end of the year.
    • The embargo would eliminate 90% of Russian oil imports.

    Special concessions to Hungary

    • The remaining 10% that’s been allowed represents a free pass for Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Bulgaria to continue imports via the Druzhba pipeline, the world’s largest oil pipeline network.
    • Hungary has obtained a guarantee that it could even import seaborne Russian oil in case of a disruption to their pipeline supplies.
    • This was deemed a legitimate concession since the pipelines do pass through the war zone in Ukraine.

    Why was exemption given for pipeline imports?

    • The exemption for pipeline imports was made on the logic that landlocked countries (Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia).
    • They are heavily dependent on Russian pipeline oil and do not have a ready option to switch to alternative sources in the absence of ports.

    How will the sanctions affect Russia?

    • Analysts calculate that a two-thirds cut in Europe’s imports might cause Russia an annual loss in revenue of $10 billion.
    • Given Russia’s limited storage infrastructure, the cutback in demand would force Russia to find other markets.
    • Since that won’t be easy, Russia might have to cut production by 20-30%.
    • So far, Asian importers, especially India, have absorbed some of the excess inventory at discounted prices.

    Impact on the ongoing war

    • It remains unclear if the embargo would have any impact on Russian military operations in Ukraine.

    How will the sanctions affect Europe?

    • It is likely to further fuel inflation in Europe, where many countries are already facing a cost-of-living crisis.
    • European lifestyles have tended to take cheap Russian energy for granted, and if inflation peaks further, the EU runs the risk of losing public support for harsh sanctions.

    What about the import of Russian gas?

    • Compared to Russian oil, Europe’s dependence on Russian gas is much greater, and this embargo leaves the import of Russian gas — which accounts of 40% of Europe’s natural gas imports — untouched.
    • In other words, Europe will continue to pay Russia for gas imports.
    • But since crude is more expensive than natural gas, the oil ban is expected to hurt Russian revenues.

    Indian response to these developments

    • India ramped up purchases of Russian crude at discounted prices in the months following the Russian invasion, and this policy is expected to continue.
    • The announcement of the EU ban caused an immediate surge in oil prices, and as Europe seeks alternate sources – from West Asia, Africa and elsewhere — for its oil needs, prices are expected to stay high.
    • In this context, with Russia reportedly offering discounts of $30-35 per barrel, India has found it convenient to make the most of the cheap Russian crude on offer.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • India Bangladesh Relations

    Two years after they were stopped due to the onset of the pandemic, passenger train services between India and Bangladesh resumed with the Bandhan Express setting off from Kolkata for Khulna and the Maitree Express starting its run from Dhaka for Kolkata.

    History of Rail Connectivity

    • The Bandhan Express was resumed by rebooting a long-forgotten rail link between Kolkata and the industrial hub of Khulna, the third-largest city of Bangladesh.
    • In 1965, this route was served by the Barisal Express, which was stopped due to the India-Pakistan war.
    • The Modi government along with the Sheikh Hasina regime restarted that with Bandhan in 2017.
    • The Bandhan Express was the second train to be flagged off after the introduction of Maitree Express between Kolkata and Dhaka Cantonment in April, 2008.
    • It covers the distance between Kolkata and Khulna via Petrapole and Benapole border route to cater to the demands of the people from both the countries.
    • The Bandhan Express was resumed in 2017 by rebooting a long-forgotten rail link between Kolkata and the industrial hub of Khulna.

    Beyond passenger travel

    • The governments of both the countries have been working towards strengthening the rail link between them, and not just through passenger trains.
    • In August 2021, the two sides started regular movement of freight trains between the newly-restored link between Haldibari in India and Chilahati in Bangladesh.
    • The Haldibari-Chilahati rail link between India and the then East Pakistan was also operational till 1965 and stopped due to the war.
    • This was part of the broad gauge main route from Kolkata to Siliguri at the time of Partition.
    • The two sides envisage at least 20 freight trains to cross the border per month on this link.

    Rail infrastructure

    • Once part of a single, seamless railway network under British rule, trains continued to pass between the two countries even after the Partition.
    • The infrastructure to connect the two sides through railways was, therefore, largely present.
    • Policymakers on both sides viewed this as an opportunity to deepen diplomatic ties using cross-border movements of goods and passengers.
    • Five rail links have so far been rebooted between India and Bangladesh:

    Petrapole (India)-Benapole (Bangladesh), Gede (India)- Darshana (Bangladesh), Singhabad (India)-Rohanpur (Bangladesh), Radhikapur (India)-Birol (Bangladesh) and the Haldibari-Chilahati link

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Pak delegation in India for Indus Water Treaty talks

    A five-member Pakistani delegation has arrived in India for talks over the ongoing water dispute under the Indus Water Commission between the two countries.

    Why in news?

    • India is building 10 hydro plant projects to cut excess water into Pakistan.
    • Pakistan is expected to raise the projects being constructed by India under the Indus treaty.

    What is Indus Water Treaty?

    • The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in Karachi in 1960.
    • According to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three “eastern” rivers of India — the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was given to India
    • The control over the water flowing in three “western” rivers of India — the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to Pakistan.

    Basis of the treaty: Equitable water-sharing

    • Back in time, partitioning the Indus rivers system was inevitable after the Partition of India in 1947.
    • The sharing formula devised after prolonged negotiations sliced the Indus system into two halves.
    • Equitable it may have seemed, but the fact remained that India conceded 80.52 percent of the aggregate water flows in the Indus system to Pakistan.
    • It also gave Rs 83 crore in pounds sterling to Pakistan to help build replacement canals from the western rivers.
    • Such generosity is unusual of an upper riparian.
    • India conceded its upper riparian position on the western rivers for the complete rights on the eastern rivers.
    • Water was critical for India’s development plans.

    What were the rights accorded to India?

    • The treaty allowed India to use western rivers water for limited irrigation use and unrestricted use for power generation, domestic industrial and non-consumptive uses such as navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc.
    • It lays down precise regulations to build any water or hydel projects.
    • India has been given the right to generate hydroelectricity through run-of-the-river projects on the western rivers subject to specific criteria for design and operation.
    • The pact also gives the right to Pakistan to raise objections to designs of Indian hydroelectric projects on the western rivers.

    Significance of the treaty

    • It is a treaty that is often cited as an example of the possibilities of peaceful coexistence that exist despite the troubled relationship.
    • It has survived 3 crucial wars.
    • It may be listed among the most successful international treaties as it has withstood the test of time.

    Why has the treaty survived?

    • It is for India’s generosity on Pakistan for sharing waters of its own rivers.
    • India has refrained from weaponizing waters. Pakistan cannot survive without this treaty.
    • About 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on Indus and the riparian rivers waters.
    • Backtracking on the treaty could affect India’s stand as global reliable partner who disrespects bilateral agreements.

    A tacit nerve of terroristan

    • Responding to state sponsor of terrorism by Pakistan, India can escalate a water war , which can kill the crippling economy of Pakistan.
    • If India wants, it can either flood or drought-starve Pakistan by not obligating to this treaty.

    Need for a rethink

    • But PM Modi’s words equally hold relevance that “Blood and waters cannot flow together”.
    • There is no reason to believe that India could start a water war with Pakistan on humanitarian grounds.
    • Floods and droughts will starve ordinary Pakistanis while their politicians would still live in luxury.

    Way forward

    • The role of India, as a responsible upper riparian abiding by the provisions of the treaty, has been remarkable.
    • However, India needs to rethink or re-negotiate this treaty.
    • Just like water affects ordinary Pakistanis, so does terrorism affects Indians.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Pacific Nations reject China Security Pact

    China has suffered a big diplomatic humiliation in the pacific. 10 island nations in the region rejected China’s proposed security pact.

    Why in news?

    • Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi has returned empty-handed in a highly decorated visit to the Pacific Nations.
    • The secret deal that was to be brokered got leaked in public media, caused huge embarrassment to the Chinese.

    Conspicuous features of the Pact

    • China has had offered to radically ramp up its activities in the South Pacific, directly challenging the influence of the US and its allies in the strategically vital region.
    • The failed deal saw Beijing to:
    1. Train Pacific island police,
    2. Become involved in cybersecurity,
    3. Expand political ties,
    4. Conduct sensitive marine mapping and
    5. Gain greater access to natural resources on land and in the water
    • As an enticement, Beijing is offering millions of dollars in financial aid, the prospect of a potentially lucrative China-Pacific islands free trade agreement and access to China’s vast market.

    Why Pacific Nations rejected this lollipop?

    • The offer is perceived was “disingenuous” and would “ensure Chinese influence in government” and “economic control” of key industries.
    • The nations also cited a lack of regional consensus.

    Pls make observations about Pacific Island Nations:

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Understanding the nature of US-Taiwan Relations

    The US President made a controversial statement on whether the US will come to the aid of Taiwan militarily in case of an invasion by China.

    What is the Taiwan issue?

    • Taiwan is an island territory located off the coast of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait.
    • After their defeat to the communist forces in the Chinese civil war (1945-1949), the ruling Kuomintang (Nationalist) government of China fled to Taiwan.
    • They transplanted the Republic of China (ROC) government in Taiwan, while the Communist Party of China (CPC) established the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the mainland.
    • Since then, the PRC considers the island as a renegade province awaiting reunification by peaceful means, if possible.

    Game changer: Cold war affiliations

    • Meanwhile, the ROC retained its membership at the United Nations and its permanent seat at the UN Security Council (UNSC).
    • The cross-strait relations became strained as a result of the Cold War, with the PRC allying itself with the Soviet Union (USSR) and ROC with the U.S.
    • This resulted in the two Taiwan Strait crises of the 1950s.

    The US and One-China Principle

    • With the shifting geopolitics of the Cold War, the PRC and the U.S. were forced to come together in the 1970s to counter the growing influence of the USSR.
    • This led to the US-China rapprochement demonstrated by the historic visit of then US President Richard Nixon to PRC in 1972.
    • The same year, the PRC displaced ROC as the official representative of the Chinese nation at the UN.
    • Diplomatic relations with the PRC became possible only if countries abided by its “One China Principle” — recognizing PRC and not the ROC as China.

    Rise of Taiwan

    • Taiwan transitioned from a single party state to a multi-party democracy.
    • At the same time that China reformed its economic system under Deng Xiaoping, and by the end of the Cold War they became economically entangled.
    • Nevertheless, they continue to compete for international recognition and preparing themselves for the worst possible scenario.

    How has the US’s stance on the Taiwan question evolved vis-à-vis China?

    • The very foundation of the US rapprochement as well as its recognition of the PRC is a mutual understanding on the Taiwan question.
    • This has been outlined in three documents — the Shanghai Communique (1972), the Normalisation Communique (1979) and the 1982 Communique.
    • According to the 1972 communique, the US agreed to the ‘one China principle’, with an understanding that it “acknowledges” and “does not challenge” that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait.
    • It maintained that there is one China and Taiwan is a part of China.
    • However, the US also established unofficial relations with Taiwan through this communique in the name of the people of both the countries.

     Why is the issue significant today?

    • As Taiwan’s democracy flourished, the popular mood drifted towards a new Taiwanese identity and a pro-independence stance on sovereignty.
    • The past decade has seen considerable souring of ties across the Strait, as the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) became the most powerful political force in Taiwan.
    • The DPP government has been catering to the pro-independence constituency in Taiwan and seeks to diversify economic relations away from China.
    • China has always seen Taiwan as a territory with high geopolitical significance.
    • This is due to its central location in the First Island Chain between Japan and the South China Sea, which is seen as the first benchmark or barrier for China’s power projection.

    Why is China so obsessed with Taiwan?

    • Taiwan is at China’s geostrategic calculus.
    • Moreover, its reunification will formally bury the remaining ghosts of China’s “century of humiliation”.
    • China under Xi Jinping seems to have lost its patience and currently sees very slim chances of a peaceful reunification.
    • China usually makes aerial transgressions in Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).
    • Also, this build-up of tensions is happening simultaneously and drawing parallels with the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

    Is US strategy towards Taiwan witnessing a major transformation?

    • The US strategy towards Taiwan in light of the unresolved nature of the cross-Strait relations has been marked by what has been called “strategic ambiguity”.
    • This is under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979.
    • As per the TRA, the US has stated clearly that the establishment of bilateral relations with the PRC rests upon “the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means”.
    • It also states the US policy to maintain the capacity to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardise the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.
    • Hence, there is no clear guarantee here that the US will militarily involve in a situation where China attempts to invade Taiwan, short of supplying “defensive weapons”.

    Enjoying the ambiguity

    • The US has for long utilized this strategic ambiguity with its own interpretation of the ‘one China principle to maintain its strategic interests in the Western Pacific.
    • It is in this context that Mr. Biden’s statements have made controversy.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • How the Quad can become more than an anti-China grouping

    Context

    On May 23, before the Quad leaders’ summit in Tokyo, the United States launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).

    Significance IPEF

    • The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) will consist of a diverse group of 12 countries initially — Australia, Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
    • The IPEF — which covers fair trade, supply chain resilience, infrastructure, clean energy, and decarbonisation, among others — is likely to complement the other Indo-Pacific projects like the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI)  that also seeks to build resilient and secure trade linkages by reducing dependence on China.
    • Decoupling from Chinese over-dependence: The US-led economic engagement is a salient attempt to allow countries to decouple from Chinese over-dependence in order to ultimately strengthen the existing free and open rules-based global order.
    • Extension of plus grouping: The launch of IPEF signifies the essence of the Quad and its extension as a “plus” grouping.
    •  It brings together seven critical countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), all Quad states, and dialogue partners, including South Korea, solidifying a case for the “plus” characterisation of the Quad process.
    • Thus, it is an encouraging sign that the Quad countries are investing their strategic orientation in this regard.
    • Importantly, both the IPEF launch, and the Tokyo summit dispel any remaining misgivings about the Quad disintegrating and certify that it is a cohesive unit where it matters.
    •  It would potentially represent an amalgamation of the eastern and western “like-minded” countries.
    • The expanded grouping and the related Quad initiatives will build a comprehensive and integrated approach to combating shared challenges arising out of Chinese aggression.
    • A hallmark of Biden’s latest Asia visit has been South Korea’s embrace of the Indo-Pacific framework.
    • This is a long-awaited turn that could potentially lead to South Korea participating in a more meaningful manner in the Quad in the near future.

    Importance of Taiwan

    • Taiwan is a major economy in the Indo-Pacific region (as also the US’s eighth-largest trading partner in 2021 and a critical partner in diversifying the US supply chains), which is already engaged in the US-Taiwan Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue that includes many of the issues proposed in the IPEF.
    • The inclusion of Taiwan, which already has a critical role in the global semi-conductor supply chain network, in the SCRI and the IPEF as well as, by extension, in the Quad format, in some manner would be a welcome addition.
    • Geopolitical statement against coercive tactics: Importantly, Taiwan’s inclusion would also be a geopolitical statement against coercion tactics by international actors.

    Inclusivity characteristics based on a  commitment to the existing international order

    • In its current abstract framework, the plus framework includes a wide array of states (which also comprise the IPEF) — developing and developed economies as well as middle and major powers that are committed to maintaining an inclusive, rules-based and liberal institutional order.
    • The inclusivity angle is suspect as the grouping is essentially what China calls a US-led “anti-China” tool.
    • Therefore, what interested states must envision is a broad, all-embracing, and comprehensive framework that can stand as a pillar for regional security and stability, multilateralism, and defence of global institutionalism and the status quo.

    Conclusion

    States are showing their willingness, and now it is incumbent on the Quad states to allow for the creation of a “corridor of communication” that ultimately leads to a “continental connect” to strengthen a rules-based order.

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • QUAD: its origins, goals and future plans

    Why was it formed?

    • While not stated explicitly by the leaders, a major basis for the grouping is to check China’s growing influence in the region.
    • After the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 wreaked havoc in the region now called the Indo-Pacific, India stepped up its rescue efforts.
    • India provided assistance to its maritime neighbours: Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Indonesia.
    • Soon, the disaster relief effort was joined by three other naval powers — the U.S., Australia and Japan.
    • Then US President George W. Bush announced that the four countries would set up an international coalition to coordinate the massive effort.
    • While the charge of the rescue operations was handed over to the United Nations shortly after, it led to the birth of a new framework: the Quadrilateral or Quad.

    Development of present day QUAD

    • Then Japanese PM Shinzo Abe had been promoting the idea of an “arc of prosperity and freedom”.
    • This brought the Quad countries closer together, further developed the concept and discussed it with then PM Manmohan Singh during a summit in December 2006.
    • The 2007 Indo-U.S. Malabar naval exercises also saw the partial involvement of Japan, Australia and Singapore.
    • The exercises and coordination were seen by China as an attempt to encircle it, which termed the grouping as trying to build “an Asian NATO”.

    Descent and revival in its formation

    • The Quad lost momentum post the 2007 meeting as the effort “dissipated amidst member leadership transitions.
    • The grouping was only revived an entire decade later in 2017, at a time when all four countries had revised their assessment of the China challenge; and India had witnessed the Doklam standoff.
    • Leaders of all four countries met in the Philippines for the ‘India-Australia-Japan-U.S.’ dialogue, not referred to as a Quad dialogue to avoid the notion of a “gang-up”.

    Basis: Indo-Pacific

    • Even at this point, a set of objectives, areas of cooperation, and even the definition of Indo-Pacific were not fixed among Quad members.
    • It was in March 2021 that Mr. Biden, Mr. Modi, Australia’s outgoing PM Scott Morrison, and then Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga met virtually, for the first time as an official Quad summit.
    • It released a set of objectives for the grouping in a joint statement called the ‘The Spirit of the Quad’.

    What were the objectives of the grouping?

    • Coming together to foster a free and open Indo-Pacific formed the bedrock of cooperation.
    • Now it commits to promoting the free, open, rules-based order, rooted in international law and undaunted by coercion, to bolster security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
    • Emphasis was laid on “rule of law, territorial integrity, freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes, and democratic values” in the region.

    Various initiatives of QUAD

    • Quad leaders launched the Quad Vaccine Initiative (QVI) with the aim of manufacturing and distributing at least a billion COVID-19 vaccines for the Asia region by the end of 2022.
    • As for emerging technologies, the four countries aimed to work on the development and diversification of 5G telecommunications.
    • They aim for creation of supply chains for critical minerals and technologies for making semiconductors used in smartphones, another area where China is a leader.
    • Quad nations had also agreed to build joint connectivity projects and transparent infrastructure funding for countries in the region.
    • The Quad also created a working group for combating climate change which would oversee efforts to foster green shipping by decarbonising maritime supply chains and promoting the use of clean hydrogen.

    What are the future plans of the Quad?

    • The Leaders will review the progress of Quad initiatives and Working Groups, identify new areas of cooperation and provide strategic guidance and vision for future collaboration.
    • The Quad summit is expected to discuss the Russian war in Ukraine, and the impact of three months of Western sanctions.
    • US also unveiled the ‘Indo-Pacific Economic Framework’ (IPEF) which is a programme to bind countries in the region more closely through common standards.
    • Quad members also launched a maritime monitoring plan to curb illegal fishing in the Indo-Pacific.

    Various challenges

    • How to deal with China thus remains the central question for Quad. Each Quad member views the Chinese threat differently.
    • For Australia too, trade was the biggest issue until the recent establishment of a Chinese military base in the Solomon Islands brought a new dimension.
    • Japan and India are closest to China, and both face belligerent Chinese claims to territory.
    • The security build-up of QUAD is also yet to materialize.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF)

    India has signalled its readiness to be part of a new economic initiative led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) by the US for the region.

    What is IPEF?

    • The grouping, which includes seven out of 10 members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), all four Quad countries, and New Zealand, represents about 40% of global GDP.
    • The negotiations for the IPEF are expected to centre around four main pillars, including trade, supply chain resiliency, clean energy and decarbonisation, and taxes and anti-corruption measures.
    • Countries would have to sign up to all of the components within a module, but do not have to participate in all modules.
    • The “fair and resilient trade” module will be led by the US Trade Representative and include digital, labor, and environment issues, with some binding commitments.
    • The IPEF seeks to strengthen economic partnership amongst participating countries with the objective of enhancing resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.

    Features of IPEF

    • US officials made it clear that the IPEF would not be a “free trade agreement”, nor are countries expected to discuss reducing tariffs or increasing market access.
    • The IPEF will not include market access commitments such as lowering tariff barriers,
    • In that sense, the IPEF would not seek to replace the 11-nation CPTPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) that the US quit in 2017, or the RCEP, which China, and all of the other IPEF countries (minus the US) are a part of.
    • Three ASEAN countries considered closer to China — Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos — are not members of the IPEF.

    Four pillars of IPEF

    1. Trade that will include digital economy and emerging technology, labour commitments, the environment, trade facilitation, transparency and good regulatory practices, and corporate accountability, standards on cross-border data flows and data localisations;
    2. Supply chain resiliency to develop “a first-of-its-kind supply chain agreement” that would anticipate and prevent disruptions;
    3. Clean energy and decarbonisation that will include agreements on “high-ambition commitments” such as renewable energy targets, carbon removal purchasing commitments, energy efficiency standards, and new measures to combat methane emissions; and
    4. Tax and anti-corruption, with commitments to enact and enforce “effective tax, anti-money laundering, anti-bribery schemes in line with [American] values”.

    Reasons for creation of IPEF

    • The IPEF is also seen as a means by which the US is trying to regain credibility in the region after former President Donald Trump pulled out of the Trans Pacific Partnership TPP).
    • Since then, there has been concern over the absence of a credible US economic and trade strategy to counter China’s economic influence in the region.
    • China is an influential member of the TPP, and has sought membership of its successor agreement Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans Pacific Partnership.
    • It is also in the 14-member Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, of which the US is not a member (India withdrew from RCEP).
    • The Biden Administration is projecting IPEF as the new US vehicle for re-engagement with East Asia and South East Asia.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Illegal fishing by China in the Indo-Pacific

    In order to check China’s illegal fishing in the Indo-Pacific region, the Quadrilateral Security Alliance (Quad) has planned to launch a satellite-based surveillance initiative.

    What is the news?

    • The leaders of Quad are reported to be getting ready to unveil a maritime surveillance initiative to protect exclusive economic zones in the Indo-Pacific against environmental damage.

    How will the proposed maritime surveillance system work?

    • The initiative will use satellite technology to connect existing surveillance centres in India, Singapore and the Pacific.
    • This will help establish a tracking system to combat illegal, unregulated and unprotected (IUU) fishing.
    • The satellite-enabled dragnet will track IUU fishing activities from the Indian Ocean and South-east Asia to the South Pacific.
    • The idea is to monitor illicit fishing vessels that have their AIS (automatic identification system) transponders turned off to evade tracking.
    • The move by the Quad security group is also seen to be aimed at reducing the small Pacific island nations’ growing reliance on China.

    Why is illegal fishing seen as such a big threat?

    • The unregulated plunder of global fishing stock poses a grave threat to the livelihood and food security of millions of people.
    • Globally, fish provide about 3.3 billion people with 20% of their average animal protein intake.
    • According to an FAO report, around 60 million people are engaged in the sector of fisheries and aquaculture.
    • While the economic loss from illegal fishing has been difficult to precisely quantify, some estimates peg it around USD 20 billion annually.

    Threats posed by IUU Fishing

    • Illegal fishing has now replaced piracy as a global maritime threat.
    • In the Indo-Pacific region, like elsewhere, the collapse of fisheries can destabilise coastal nations.
    • It poses a much bigger security risk, as it can fuel human trafficking, drug crime and terror recruiting.

    Why is China in the dock?

    • The 2021 IUU Fishing Index, which maps 152 coastal countries, ranked China as the worst offender.
    • China is considered responsible for 80% to 95% illegal fishing in the region after having overfished its own waters.
    • It, in fact, is known to incentivise illegal fishing with generous subsidies to meet its growing domestic demand.

    China and distant-water fishing (DWF)

    • China’s DWF fleet has almost 17,000 vessels and is the largest in the world.
    • Vessel ownership is highly fragmented among many small companies and the fleet includes vessels registered in other jurisdictions.

    Issues with Chinese IUU Fishing

    • Chinese are often accused of pillaging ocean wealth with great sophistication and with little regard for maritime boundaries.
    • China also uses them to project strategic influence and to bully fishing vessels from weaker nations.
    • China uses destructive practises such as bottom trawling and forced, bonded and slave labour and trafficked crew, alongside the widespread abuse of migrant crewmembers.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • NATO Expansion & Russia

    After nearly three months of debate within the two countries, Finland and Sweden have formally applied for membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

    What is NATO?

    • NATO is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.

    Expansion of NATO: Transforming Europe

    • The war in Ukraine has already changed the geopolitics of Europe and the world.
    • The admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO would bring about a transformation in the continent’s security map by giving NATO a contiguous long frontier in western Russia.
    • Finland and Russia share a 1,300-km border — and doubling it from the present 1,200 km, parts of it in northern Norway, Latvia and Estonia, and Poland and Lithuania.
    • In addition, Sweden’s island of Gotland in the middle of the Baltic Sea would give NATO a strategic advantage.
    • Furthermore, when Sweden and Finland join NATO, the Baltic Sea — Russia’s gateway to the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean — would be ringed entirely by NATO members.

    Why Nordic countries are willing to join NATO?

    • Although the debate over joining NATO was ongoing in both countries for nearly three decades, Russia’s annexation of Crimea pushed both towards NATO’s “open door” policy.
    • Still, there was little political consensus in either country, especially in Sweden where the Social Democrats have long been against the idea.
    • However, February 24 changed everything the date on which Russia invaded Ukraine.

    A knee jerk reaction?

    • If Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was meant to deter NATO’s eastward expansion, the war has had the opposite effect.
    • If admitted, Sweden and Finland will become its 31st and 32nd members.

    Russian response

    • Back in March, Russia had evoked a threatening response to take retaliatory measures by stationing its nuclear and hypersonic weapons close to the Baltic Sea.
    • Russia denounced the problems with Finland and Sweden but the NATO’s expansion at the expense of these countries does not pose a direct threat to us.
    • But the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory will certainly provoke their response, warned Mr Putin.
    • Sweden had already said it would not allow NATO bases or nuclear weapons on its territory.

    Hurdles for Finland, Sweden

    • At the moment the main obstacle to their applications in Turkey, a member since 1952 and which has NATO’s second-largest army after the US.
    • Turkish president Erdogan has objected to their applications on the ground that the two countries had provided safe haven to the leaders of the Kurdish group PKK.
    • Many Kurdish and other exiles have found refuge in Sweden over the past decades.
    • PKK is an armed movement fighting for a separate Kurdistan, comprising Kurdish areas in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria.
    • Neither of these countries have a clear, open attitude towards terrorist organisation.

    What could Turkey gain?

    • Turkey is expected to seek to negotiate a compromise deal to seek action on Kurdish groups.
    • Erdogan could also seek to use Sweden and Finland’s membership to wrest concessions from the United States and other allies.
    • Turkey wants to return to the US-led F-35 fighter jet program — a project it was kicked out of following its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems.
    • Alternatively, Turkey is looking to purchase a new batch of F-16 fighter jets and upgrade its existing fleet.

    How does this affect Turkey’s image in the West?

    • Turkey is reinforcing an image that is blocking the alliance’s expansion for its own profit.
    • It also risks damaging the credit it had earned by supplying Ukraine with the Bayraktar TB2 armed drones that became an effective weapon against Russian forces.

    Is Turkey trying to appease Russia?

    • Turkey has built close relations with both Russia and Ukraine and has been trying to balance its ties with both.
    • It has refused to join sanctions against Russia — while supporting Ukraine with the drones that helped deny Russia air superiority.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)