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GS Paper: GS2-18.Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

  • Understanding the strategic flux and humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan

    Context

    The Afghan government and its defence forces have completely collapsed. The world over, television screens are full of images of the extraordinary takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban.

    Background of the US intervention in Afghanistan

    • The original trigger for the US military intervention in Afghanistan was the 9/11 attacks.
    • The objective then was to eliminate the al Qaeda sanctuaries hosted by the Taliban.
    • That goal was quickly attained, as was another one — the elimination of Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in 2011.
    • The US was thereafter stuck into a vortex in which its mission oscillated between counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency. 
    • The military presence in Afghanistan has been questioned by the US political firmament for a decade.

    Factors driving the US exit

    • China factor: The US now regards China as its principal strategic competitor.
    • China’s muscle-flexing in the East and South China Seas calls for a renewed effort by the US to protect its stakes.
    • The rise of China is the main geo-strategic threat for the US.
    • In 2001, the US had taken its eye off the ball in diverting its attention to the global war on terror.
    • Beginning with Afghanistan, it meandered through Iraq, Libya and Syria, with mixed results.
    • Taiwan: China’s recent ratcheting up of pressure on Taiwan has also sounded the alarm.

    Implications of Taliban’s return for region

    • The new regime in Kabul is likely to open the door to economic investments from China.
    • At the geopolitical level, the BRI may well receive a boost, given China’s interests in connectivity that could straddle the region, from Pakistan to Iran.
    • Pakistan has shown alacrity in welcoming the change of guard in Kabul.
    • The change in Afghanistan has security implications for India and the region at large.
    • A spill-over of any chaos and instability in Afghanistan beyond its borders could give terrorism a shot in the arm.
    • It could also singe Pakistan if it does not review its malevolent practices, which favour terror as an instrument of state policy.

    Way forward for India

    • India should prioritise the welfare of the Afghan people, whenever the opportunity presents itself.
    • Currently, about 2,500 Afghan students are enrolled in educational and vocational institutions across India.
    • They will no doubt wish to extend their scholarships.
    • As a close neighbour, India has keen stakes in ensuring a stable, secure and developed Afghanistan.
    • As the rotational President of the UN Security Council for August, India has an opportunity to engage important stakeholders on the way forward.
    • Beyond that too, India’s presence in the UN Security Council till the end of 2022 will provide a platform to explore options with greater flexibility.

    Conclusion

    The global community needs to underscore the continued participation of women in governance in Afghanistan and keep an eye on violations of human rights and international humanitarian law.

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  • For India, there will be no dearth of balancing opportunities in Afghanistan

    Context

    The rapid fall of Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the US sent shockwaves across the region.

    Cause of concern for India

    • The Taliban’s entry into Kabul, marks the beginning of a new phase in the relationship between Afghanistan and India.
    • Recent developments in South Asia certainly point to a recurring dynamic between Afghanistan and India.
    • The restoration of Taliban rule in Afghanistan with Pakistan’s support undoubtedly presents some very serious potential challenges for Indian security.
    • However, a measure of strategic patience could help India cope with the adverse developments in Afghanistan and find ways to secure its interests in the near future.
    • For India, a bigger question mark will be about the Taliban’s renewed support for international terrorism and Pakistan’s re-direction of jihadi groups that have allegedly fought with the Taliban towards India.

    Afghanistan from 1979 to 2001 and how it changed the subcontinent

    • At the end of 1979, the Soviet Union launched a massive military invasion to protect a communist regime in Kabul.
    • The US and Pakistan responded by unleashing a religious jihad that compelled Russia to withdraw by 1989.
    • Pakistan’s critical role in the Afghan war against Russia allowed Pakistan to secure the political cover for the country’s acquisition of nuclear weapons.
    • The Pakistan army turned the jihadi armies to gain control of Afghanistan and launched a proxy war against India, especially in the Punjab and Kashmir regions.
    • The turbulence of the 1990s saw deepening conflict between India and Pakistan.
    • Al Qaeda, hosted by the Taliban, launched terror attacks against the US on September 11, 2001.
    • Swift US retribution brought an end to Taliban rule and compelled Pakistan to reconsider its policies.
    • After 2001, there has also been a significant expansion of the India-US strategic partnership.
    • By the end of the decade, though, the Pakistan Army had swung back to its default positions — renewed support for the Taliban in Afghanistan.
    • Pakistan also teased an increasingly war-weary Washington into a negotiation with the Taliban for a peace settlement.

    Way forward for India

    • Patience: Like all radical groups, the Taliban will have trouble balancing its religious ideology with the imperatives of state interests.
    • India would want to carefully watch how this tension plays out.
    • Watch the relation between Pakistan and Taliban: Equally important is the nature of the relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan.
    • The Taliban is bound to seek a measure of autonomy from Pakistan, India will have to wait.
    • Prepare for cross-border terror: India must fully prepare for a renewal of cross-border terror, but there is a lot less global acceptance of terrorism today than in the permissive 1990s.
    • No major power would like to see Afghanistan re-emerge as a global sanctuary of terror.
    • The world has also imposed significant new constraints on Pakistan’s support for terror through mechanisms like the Financial Action Task Force.
    • Unlike in the 1990s, when Delhi simply absorbed the terror attacks, it now shows the political will to retaliate forcefully.
    • Regional geopolitical alignment: It is also important to note that the US and the West will continue to have a say in shaping the international attitudes towards the new regime.
    • The Taliban and Pakistan appear to be acutely conscious of this reality.

    Conclusion

    For a patient, open-minded and active India, there will be no dearth of balancing opportunities in Afghanistan.

  • India’s fate is tied to the rest of the world

    Context

    Ever since Independence, India’s fate has been closely tied to the rest of the world.

    How global interactions and how it shaped India

    • A large, newly independent, impoverished, and diverse country required active engagement with a variety of partners for its survival, security, and development.
    • But a constantly evolving international environment presented India not just with opportunities but numerous challenges.
    • Poorly demarketed borders: Its frontiers were initially poorly demarcated and poorly integrated.
    • Nuclear-armed neighbours: India came to have two nuclear-armed neighbors with which it competed for territory.
    • Relations with the US and Russia: India’s first leaders opted for flexible and friendly relations with both the U.S. and the Soviet Union and their respective allies.
    • The Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation and the Bangladesh war altered India’s relations with both superpowers and shifted the dynamics of the rivalry with Pakistan.
    • Role in global politics: India also played an activist role in the decolonizing world, extending diplomatic and (in some cases) security assistance to independence movements in Asia and Africa and sending military missions to Korea and the Congo.
    • Economic progress: There were also important economic strides made, including the Green Revolution, undertaken with considerable foreign technical and financial assistance.
    • Independent policy: India often found itself at odds with the great powers when it felt its greater interests were threatened, as on intervention in Bangladesh, nuclear non-proliferation, or trade.

    India after the Cold War

    • The 1991 Gulf war resulted in a balance of payments crisis and the liberalization of the economy.
    • India then adopted a range of reforms to liberalize the economy, but it faced more than just economic turmoil.
    • Yet, the period that followed witnessed some important developments under the prime ministership of P.V. Narasimha Rao:
    • The period saw the advent of the Look East Policy and relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
    • It also saw the establishment of diplomatic ties with Israel.
    • The signing of a border peace and tranquility agreement with China took place in the same period
    • The period also witnessed initial military contracts with the U.S., and preparations for nuclear tests.
    • The Atal Bihari Vajpayee government built further upon these developments, conducting a series of tests in 1998, negotiating a return to normal relations with most major powers within two years.
    • Economic development: These years also witnessed a rapid growth of the Indian economy, fuelled by a boom in information and communication technology companies, the services sector, and a rising consumer market.
    • After 2004, the Manmohan Singh government worked extensively to resolve the outstanding question of India’s nuclear status.
    • By eliminating barriers to ‘dual use’ technologies and equipment, as well as a host of associated export controls, India had the opportunity to establish robust defense relations with the U.S. and its allies.
    • Coupled with an economic deceleration after 2011, India’s relations with the U.S. and Europe grew more contentious over the next three years.

    Relationship with China

    • The global financial crisis in 2008-09 presaged a slight change in approach, whereby India sought to partner with China and other rising powers on institutional reform, financial lending, climate change, and sovereignty.
    • Beginning in 2013,  China began to test India on the border and undermine Indian interests in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region.
    • With further stand-offs at Doklam and Ladakh between 2017 and 2021, India opted to boycott China’s Belt and Road Initiative, raise barriers to Chinese investment.
    • In response, India began consulting more closely with other balancing powers in the Indo-Pacific.
    • Security relations and understandings with the U.S. and its allies (Japan, France, Australia) accelerated after 2014.
    • A greater emphasis on neighborhood connectivity was adopted.

    Way forward

    • As India enters its 75th year of independence, there are plenty of reasons for cautious optimism about its place in the world.
    • COVID-19 and growing international competition also underscore the difficulties that India will likely face as it attempts to transform into a prosperous middle-income country.
    • What is certain is that India will not have the luxury to turn inwards.

    Conclusion

    India’s objectives have been broadly consistent: development, regional security, a balance of power, and the shaping of international consensus to be more amenable to Indian interests. At the same time, India’s means and the international landscape have changed, as have domestic political factors.

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  • Understanding the anxieties behind Chinese aggression towards India

    Context

    Chinese President Xi Jinping made a surprise visit to Tibet on July 21, signalling the seriousness with which China continues to take its Himalayan border dispute with India.

    Understanding China’s strategic challenges and intensions

    • Demonstration of political confidence through aggression: More than a year after the clash at Galwan Valley, efforts to resolve the border crisis continue to move slowly.
    • The Chinese side has previously failed to complete troop withdrawals and revert to the status quo that the Indian side believed China agreed to.
    • China’s behaviour has been calculated to demonstrate political confidence.
    • Worsening strategic environment for China: Seen from Beijing, the strategic environment for China is beginning to worsen in South and Central Asia.
    • As the US withdraws and the Taliban advances in Afghanistan, China fears the prospect of instability and an emerging haven for terrorism directed against its policies in Xinjiang.
    • Even as China seeks to scale back the debt-laden BRI, such instability may also result in Beijing increasing its already overstretched external commitments — particularly in the security domain.
    • Re-emergence of Quad: China is deeply worried by the re-emergence and strengthening of multilateral opposition to China, and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (or “Quad”) between the US, Japan, Australia and India.
    • For China, this represents a persistent threat not only economically and in foreign policy, but also militarily along its maritime periphery in the South and East China Seas, as well as the Taiwan Strait.
    • As US multilateral cooperation with its partners has increased, Beijing has come to increasingly see itself as beset by threats on all sides.

    China’s 2 possible responses to strategic challenges and its implications for India

    • 1) Wolf warrier diplomacy: So far, the response from China’s new class of “wolf warrior” diplomats to this emerging strategic challenge has been to only grow more assertive in rhetoric and behaviour.
    • China’s domestic politics: Response of wolf warrior diplomats may seem perplexing, given that it has served only to alienate other countries and isolate China further.
    •  China’s domestic politics in the lead up to the 20th Congress will mean that its leaders, diplomats and generals will be displaying maximum nationalistic fervour.
    • Implications for India: This may well mean China taking political and policy decisions, which in a normal season they would not because doing so could compromise Beijing’s longstanding diplomatic and strategic goals, including in dealings with India.
    • 2) Moderate approach to improve strategic position: But if instead of aggressive posture, China decided that it was better domestic politics to improve China’s strategic position in Asia amid its competition with Washington, Beijing’s diplomats may yet adopt a more moderate approach, including with India.
    • Implications for India: If stability can be restored to the China-India strategic relationship, this could provide a window for Asia’s two mega-economies to reopen their markets to each other.

    Conclusion

    Indeed, the choice China makes between these two alternatives will have implications for India and the rest of the world in their dealing with China.

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  • [pib] Forum of the Election Management Bodies of South Asia (FEMBoSA)

    The Election Commission of India has handed over the Chair of FEMBoSA to the Election Commission of Bhutan for 2021-22.

    What is FEMBoSA?

    • Forum of the Election Management Bodies of South Asia (FEMBoSA) was established at the 3rd Conference of Heads of Election Management Bodies (EMBs) of SAARC Countries in 2012.
    • The forum aims to increase mutual cooperation with respect to the common interests of the SAARC’s EMBs.
    • The Forum has eight Member Election Management Bodies from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
    • The Election Commission of India was the latest Chair of the Forum (now Bhutan).

    Its establishment

    • The first meeting of the representatives of Election Management Bodies of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal and Pakistan was held in Dhaka, Bangladesh in the year 2010.
    • It was then decided at the conclusion that an organization representing those countries should be established.
    • Consequently, annual meets were held in the member countries and the charter for the organization also was adopted with the aim of fulfilling the objectives of the organization.
    • Since the creation of FEMBoSA, Annual Meetings were held in Pakistan (2011), in India (2012), in Bhutan (2013), in Nepal (2014),  in Sri Lanka (2015), in Maldives (2016), in Afghanistan (2017) and in Bangladesh(2018).

    Objectives of FEMBOSA

    • Promote contact among the Election Management Bodies of SAARC countries
    • Facilitate the appropriate exchange of experience and expertise among members
    • Share experiences with a view to learning from each other
    • Foster efficiency and effectiveness in conducting the free, fair, transparent, and participative election

    Significant activities under FEMBoSA

    • Member organizations celebrate National Voter’s Day in a calendar year in their respective countries
    • An initiative of establishing South Asia Institute for Democracy and Electoral Studies (SAIDES) in Nepal
    • In order to increase knowledge related to elections, take initiatives to include voter education in the school-level textbooks of their respective countries
    • Implementation of recommendations of South Asian Disabilities Organizations for the inclusion of disabled people in the electoral system and the creation of a suitable election environment

    Back2Basics: SAARC

    •  In 1985, at the height of the Cold War, leaders of South Asian nations — namely Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka — created a regional forum.
    • The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was established with the goal of contributing “to mutual trust, understanding, and appreciation of one another’s problems.”
    • Afghanistan was admitted as a member in 2007.

  • Five-point Framework for Maritime Security

     

    A week into India’s United Nations Security Council (UNSC) presidency, PM Modi has outlined a five-point framework for maritime security debate at UNSC.

    Maritime Security

    • Maritime security is one of the latest buzzwords of international relations.
    • Major actors in maritime policy, ocean governance and international security have in the past decade started to include maritime security in their mandate or reframed their work in such terms.
    • Core dimensions of maritime security involves the concept of blue economy, food security and the resilience of coastal populations.
    • A secure maritime environment provides the precondition for managing marine resources.

    Threats to maritime security

    Need for an agenda

    • In today’s economy, the oceans have an increased importance, allowing all countries to participate in the global marketplace.
    • More than 80 percent of the world’s trade travels by water and forges a global maritime link.
    • About half the world’s trade by value, and 90 percent of the general cargo, are transported in containers.
    • Many countries have invested significant resources in maritime infrastructure, trade, energy supply chains, cargo movements and processes.
    • China, undeniably a continental country, claims sovereignty over all of the South China Sea islands and their adjacent waters.

    5-point agenda for enhancing maritime cooperation

    [1] Removal of barriers to legitimate maritime trade:

    • Global prosperity depends on the active flow of maritime trade. Any hindrance in maritime trade can threaten the global economy, PM said.
    • Maritime trade has always been part of the civilizational ethos of India.
    • PM termed this principle as ‘SAGAR’ Security and Growth for All in the Region.

    [2] Resolution of maritime disputes peacefully in accordance with international law:

    [3] Fight threats from natural disasters, non-state actors:

    • PM said the Indian Navy has been patrolling to counter piracy in the Indian Ocean since 2008.
    • It is enhancing the common maritime domain awareness of the region through our White Shipping Information Fusion Centre.
    • India has provided support for hydrographic surveying and training of maritime security personnel to several countries.

    [4] Conservation of marine resources:

    • Our oceans directly impact our climate. Hence, it is very important that we keep our maritime environment free of pollutants like plastic waste and oil spills.
    • We also need to take joint steps against over-fishing and marine poaching, PM said.
    • He also emphasized the need for increased mutual cooperation in Ocean Science research.

    [5] Promoting responsible maritime connectivity:

    • PM said it is well understood that the creation of infrastructure is necessary to boost maritime trade.
    • He advocated for appropriate global norms and standards to ensure that such infrastructure projects are carried out as per the fiscal sustainability and absorption capacity of the host countries.

  • Making a case for Indo-Abrahamic accord

    Context

    An Egyptian scholar, Mohammed Soliman, has recently written about the significance of what he calls the emerging “Indo-Abrahamic Accord” and its trans-regional implications to the west of India.

    About Abraham Accord

    • Abraham Accord, signed in August last year in Washington, signifies the normalisation of Israel’s relations with the UAE and Bahrain.
    • The UAE and Bahrain were followed by Sudan and Morocco in signing the Abraham Accords.
    • Although Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994) had established diplomatic relations with Israel earlier, the Abraham Accords are widely seen as making a definitive breakthrough in the relations between Israel and the Arabs.

    Factors in favour of accord

    • Depth of trilateral relationship: Although India had relations with UAE and Israel for many years, they certainly have acquired political depth and strategic character recently.
    • Converging interests: Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s assertive claims for the leadership of the Islamic world and hostile stand against India on several issues, indicates converging interests between India, the UAE, and Israel.
    • One of the unintended consequences of Erdogan’s overweening regional ambition, his alienation of Israel as well as moderate Arabs, his conflict with Greece, and his embrace of Pakistan is the extraordinary opportunity for India to widen India’s reach to the west of the Subcontinent
    • Cooperation: There are many areas like defence, aerospace and digital innovation where the three countries can pool their resources and coordinate development policies.
    • India’s extended neighbourhood: The notion of a “Greater Middle East” can provide a huge fillip to India’s engagement with the extended neighbourhood to the west.

    India-Turkey relations

    • Hostile approach on Kashmir: Turkey has been championing Pakistan’s case on Kashmir after India changed the territorial status quo of the state in August 2019.
    • Blocking NSG entry: At Pakistan’s behest, Turkey is also blocking India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
    • The new geopolitical churn is also driven by Pakistan’s growing alignment with Turkey and its alienation from its traditionally strong supporters in the Arab Gulf — the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

    Opportunities for India in extended neighbourhood to the west

    • Relations with Greece: The renewed territorial disputes between Turkey and Greece, and Turkey’s quest for regional dominance has drawn Greece and the UAE closer.
    • Greece has also looked towards India to enhance bilateral security cooperation. 
    • Greece’s European partners like France, which have a big stake in the Mediterranean as well as the Arab Gulf, have taken an active interest in countering Turkey’s regional ambitions.
    • Erdogan’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood, which seeks to overthrow the current political order in the region, has deeply angered the governments of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
    • India’s relations with Egypt: If there is one country that can give substantive depth to the Indo-Abrahamic Accord it is Egypt.
    • Located at the cusp of Mediterranean Europe, Africa, and Asia, Egypt is the very heart of the Greater Middle East.
    • Independent India’s engagement with the region in the 1950s was centred on a close partnership with Egypt.
    • If Delhi and Cairo lost each other in recent decades, India can rebuild the strategic partnership jointly with the Egypt government which is calling for the construction of a “New Republic” in Egypt.
    • The notion of a “Greater Middle East” can provide a huge fillip to India’s engagement with the extended neighbourhood to the west.
    • The familiar regional institutions like the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation might endure but are incapable of addressing the region’s contradictions.

    Consider the question “Amid Turkey’s quest for regional dominance and hostility towards India, the deepening engagement between India, the UAE and Israel can be converted into a formal coalition on the lines of Abraham Accords” Comment.

    Conclusion

    The opportunities that are coming India’s way to the west of the Subcontinent are as consequential as those that have recently emerged in the east.

  • EU’s vaccine travel pass discriminates against low-income countries

    Context

    The introduction of Covid-19 vaccines has opened up opportunities to help revive travel. However, it is important to carefully design policies that help revive travel demand.

    Vaccine certificates

    • Many countries like China and Israel have introduced vaccine certificates that ease the process of entering and travelling across the destination country for vaccinated travellers.
    • Can encourage discriminatory treatment: Though these certificates can ensure trade facilitation, they can potentially act as a trade barrier if they encourage discriminatory treatment.
    • The recent and the most contentious issue in this regard is the European Union’s “Green Pass” scheme.

    Issues with European Union’s Green Pass

    • Through this vaccine certificate, the European Commission intends to remove travel restrictions such as entry bans, quarantine obligations and testing.
    • Only 4 vaccines listed: The EU has listed only four vaccines approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for the pass: Pfizer-BioNTech’s Comirnaty, Moderna’s Spikevax, Oxford-AstraZeneca Vaxzevria and Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen.
    • It makes travellers from countries administering alternate vaccines ineligible for certification.
    • When it was launched, the policy did not even allow AstraZeneca’s Indian-manufactured vaccine, Covishield.
    • Against COVAX policy: This goes against the policy of COVAX, which has categorically stated that such measures would effectively create a two-tier system and would negatively impact the growth of economies that are already suffering the most.
    • Discriminatory against low-income countries: Vaccine doses administered per 100 people is 1.4 for low-income countries as compared to 93.2 for high-income countries.
    • This makes travellers from low-income countries ineligible to avail these certificates.
    • As per estimates based on information from the WHO, countries not administering any of the EMA-approved vaccines account for at least 14 per cent of the vaccinated population.
    • These lie mostly in low and middle-income countries, including India.
    • Harms domestic sector: Nationals from many of these countries also serve in the hospitality industries in countries across the world, including Europe.
    • With this exclusion criteria, an indirect cost burden is put on their domestic service sectors that are already reeling due to the pandemic.
    • Against globalisation policy: With such discriminatory intervention, the EU policy does not go well with the globalisation policy of collective welfare.

    Steps to boost vaccine production

    • Covid vaccine makers across the world have created a platform, led by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, to connect with key raw material suppliers needed for boosting production.
    • In a recent declaration, WTO members have agreed to review and eliminate unnecessary existing export restrictions on essential medical goods needed to combat the pandemic.

    Way forward

    • Cooperate on vaccine production: To achieve the desired goal, countries need to cooperate on vaccine production to accelerate the global vaccination process.
    • Remove restrictions and trade barriers: Accelerating global vaccine production makes lifting trade barriers on raw materials for vaccine production critical.
    • The two relevant bodies, WHO and WTO, should also work together to sort out selective criteria for international movement.

    Conclusion

    Developed countries should refrain from discriminatory international travel policies against low-income countries and focus on increasing vaccine production to close the vaccination gap at the global level.

  • Needed, a more unified Asian voice for Afghanistan

    Context

    As the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) end their presence in Afghanistan and set off a churn in the neighbourhood, Central Asia is emerging as a key player.

    Challenges India faces in playing a leading role in Afghanistan

    • Events of the past few years, and the decisions of Russia, the US and China have kept India out of a leading role in Afghanistan.
    • India’s original hesitation in opening talks with the Taliban has cut India out of the current reconciliation process.
    • India’s efforts to build on trade with Afghanistan, shore up development projects and increase educational and training opportunities for Afghan youth have been appreciated, but these cannot grow bigger due to a number of factors.
    • The end of any formal dialogue between India and Pakistan since 2016 and trade since 2019, have resulted in Pakistan blocking India’s over-land access to Afghanistan.
    • India’s alternative route through Chabahar, though operational, cannot be viable or cost-effective also long as U.S. sanctions on Iran are in place.
    • India’s boycott of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2017, and now tensions at the Line of Actual Control make another route to Afghanistan off-limits.
    • The U.S. has announced a formation of a “Quad” on regional connectivity — U.S.-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan that does not include India.

    Why Central Asian countries are interested in Afghanistan?

    • The hope is that the Central Asian window, with the “Stans” (five Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) will open new possibilities for India.
    • Calculations of Central Asian neighbours are three-fold:
    • The first is that prosperity for these land-locked countries can only flow from access through Afghanistan to the closest ocean, i.e. the Indian Ocean.
    • Second, that all transit through Afghanistan depends on guarantees of safe passage from the Taliban, backed by the group’s mentors in Pakistan.
    • Third, each of the “Stans” are now a part of China’s BRI, and tying their connectivity initiatives with Beijing’s will bring the double promise of investment and some modicum of control over Pakistan.

    Way forward for India

    • Given the odds, India’s room for manoeuvre with these five countries on Afghanistan appears limited but not without hope.
    • Work on common concerns: To begin with, India and the Central Asian States share common concerns about an Afghanistan overrun by the Taliban.
    • Their common concerns are the worries of battles at their borders, safe havens for jihadist terror groups inside Afghanistan and the spill-over of radicalism into their own countries.
    • Support financially: It is necessary for India to work with them, and other neighbours to shore up finances for the government in Kabul, particularly to ensure that the government structure does not collapse.
    • Cooperation on anti-terrorism: As part of the SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), India must also step up its engagement with the Central Asian countries on fighting terror.
    • India can support the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) in terms of airpower.
    • Better ties between neighbours: South Asia must learn from Central Asia’s recent example in knitting together this region more tightly, a task that can only be completed with better ties between India and Pakistan.
    • India’s furtive discussions with the Taliban leadership in Doha make little sense unless a less tactical and more strategic engagement with Pakistan is also envisaged.

    Conclusion

    Countries of Central Asia and South Asia need to find a more unified voice, as they have in recent weeks. Afghanistan’s future will affect both regions much more than it will the distant global powers that currently dominate the debate.

  • The convergence and lag in Indo-US partnership

    Context

    As the Indian leadership reviews US ties this week with the visiting Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, a paradox stands out.

    Deepening Indo-US ties

    • India and the US have come a long way since the 1990s.
    • There is growing political and security cooperation, expanding economic engagement, widening interface between the two societies, and the intensifying footprint of the Indian diaspora in the US.
    • Convergence of interests: That ambition, in turn, is based on the unprecedented convergence of Indian and American national interests.
    • Agenda for cooperation: The two countries have already agreed on an ambitious agenda for bilateral, regional and global cooperation.

    Debate in India over Indo-US relation: A paradox

    • The discourse within India’s strategic community continues to be anxious.
    • Some of the questions that animate the media and political classes have not changed since the 1990s.
    • Issues in the debate: Debate focuses on US’s stand on the Kashmir issue, democracy and human rights and its impact on India-US relations.
    • Contradictory fears: There are also contradictory fears such as whether the US extend full support in coping with China.
    • While we expect the US to give guarantees on supporting us, we insist that India will never enter into an alliance with the US.
    • Small state syndrome in India: As India’s relative weight in the international system continues to grow, it creates much room for give and take between India and the US.
    • Yet, a small state syndrome continues to grip the foreign policy elite.
    • The situation is similar on the economic front.
    • Although India is now the sixth-largest economy in the world, there is unending concern about the US imposing globalisation on India.
    • Even as India’s salience for solutions to climate change has increased, India’s debate remains deeply defensive.

    Factors responsible paradox

    • Missing the big picture: The narrow focus on the bilateral precludes an assessment of the larger forces shaping American domestic and international politics.
    • That, in turn, limits the appreciation of new possibilities for the bilateral relationship.
    • Underinvestment in American studies: The problem is reinforced by India’s under-investment in public understanding of American society.
    • Russia and China have put large resources in American studies at their universities and think tanks.
    • The Indian government and private sector will hopefully address this gap in the not-too-distant future.

    Policy shifts unfolding in the US

    • Domestic economic policies: If the economic policy drift in the last four decades was to the right, Biden is moving left on the relationship between the state and the market — on raising taxes, increasing public spending and addressing the problem of sharp economic inequality.
    • Economic policy and globalisation: Biden has also joined Trump in questioning America’s uncritical economic globalisation of the past.
    • If Trump talked of putting America First, Biden wants to make sure that America’s foreign and economic policies serve the US middle class.
    • Foreign policy: Biden has concluded that four decades of America’s uncritical engagement with China must be reconstituted into a policy that faces up to the many challenges that Beijing presents to the US.
    •  Biden is also focused on renewing the traditional US alliances to present a united front against China.
    • He is also seeking to overcome Washington’s hostility to Russia by resetting ties with Moscow.

    Question of democracy and human rights

    • Democracy is very much part of America’s founding ideology.
    • But living up to that ideal at home and abroad has not been easy for the United States over the last two centuries.
    • Delhi and Washington will also have much to discuss on the challenges that new surveillance technologies and big tech monopolies pose to democratic governance.
    • The exclusive American focus on democracy promotion has been rare, costly and unsuccessful.
    • India’s own experience at spreading democracy in its neighbourhood is quite similar.
    • But that discussion is only one part of the expansive new agenda — from Afghanistan to Indo-Pacific, reforming global economic institutions to addressing climate change, and vaccine diplomacy to governing new technologies that beckon India and the United States.

    Conclusion

    As they intensify the bilateral cooperation, the two sides will hopefully turn the Indo-US partnership from a perennial curiosity to a quotidian affair.