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GS Paper: GS2-18.Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

  • India- France: Expanding strategic partnership

    France

    Context

    • The celebration by India and France of 25 years of their strategic partnership (January 26) presents an important opportunity for both to introspect on their relations. Signed in 1998, the time-tested strategic partnership has continued to gain momentum over shared values and aspirations of peace, stability and, most importantly, their desire for strategic autonomy. There are no real substantive disagreements between the two nations.

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    France a largest foreign investor in India

    • France has emerged as a key trading partner of India with annual trade of $12.42 billion in 2021-22.
    • It is the 11th largest foreign investor in India with a cumulative investment of $10.31 billion from April 2000 to June 2022, which represents 1.70% of the total foreign direct investment inflows into India.

    France

    France a key defence trading partner of India

    • Second largest defence supplier in 2017-2021: France has emerged as a key defence partner for India, becoming the second largest defence supplier in 2017- 2021. France has emerged as a major strategic partner for India with crucial defence deals and increased military to military engagement.
    • For example: A key example of this is the inducting of the French Scorpene conventional submarines, being built in India under technology transfer agreement of 2005, and the Indian Air Force having received 36 Rafale fighter jets.
    • Joint venture for aircraft manufacturing: The Tata group has also tied up with Airbus to manufacture C-295 tactical transport aircraft in Vadodara, Gujarat. This line is expected to be expanded into other civilian and military aircraft manufacturing in a joint venture with France.
    • Regular joint exercises: These relations are further fortified with the robust network of military dialogues and regularly held joint exercises Varuna (navy), Garuda (air force), and Shakti (army).
    • France is a willing partner for India: The importance of the defence partnership was further underscored in the recent statement by the French Ambassador to India, Emmanuel Lenain that France is a willing partner for India as it builds its national industrial base for the defence industry and for critical strategic defence projects.

    France

    Maritime ties

    • Joint Strategic Vision of India-France Cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region: India and France are resident powers of the Indian Ocean and in the Indo-Pacific. The importance of the Indian Ocean Region was visible during the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to New Delhi in 2018 when the leadership of both countries welcomed the Joint Strategic Vision of India-France Cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region which presented a blueprint for a strengthening of ties.
    • Like-minded partners: In operational terms, Franco-Indian joint patrolling in the Indian Ocean signals New Delhi’s intent to engage with like-minded partners in expanding its footprint in the Indian Ocean.
    • Common vision for open Indo-Pacific: Maritime security has further gained momentum as both countries have articulated their common vision for a free, fair and open Indo-Pacific. Both countries seeks to provide comprehensive solutions for maritime security, regional cooperation, climate change adaptation.
    • Common concerns over China’s aggressive behaviour: Both countries share concerns over the rise of China and its aggressive behaviour, regionally and globally, and have committed to working together to ensure that there is no imbalance in the Indo-Pacific
    • Indo-Pacific Trilateral Development Cooperation Fund: India and France in September 2022 agreed to set up an Indo-Pacific Trilateral Development Cooperation Fund that will support sustainable innovative solutions for countries in the region. The two partners have formed a trilateral grouping with the United Arab Emirates to ensure maritime domain awareness and security from the east coast of Africa to the far Pacific.

    Other areas of cooperation 

    • Nuclear cooperation: France was among the first countries with which India signed a civil nuclear deal. Paris also played a critical role in limiting India’s isolation in the non-proliferation order after the 1998 nuclear tests.
    • Support for India’s bid for permanent membership of UNSC: In a sign of expanding cooperation, France supports India’s bid for permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council as well as its entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
    • India supported France in the Paris Agreement: An area of importance for both is climate change, where India has supported France in the Paris Agreement expressing its strong commitment towards mitigating climate change impact. New Delhi and Paris, as part of their joint efforts on climate change, launched the International Solar Alliance in 2015.
    • Deepening cooperation in complex geological order: As the complexities in the international geopolitical order have emerged, both countries have worked towards a deepening and broadening of their cooperation.

    France

    Way ahead

    • India’s partnership with France is built on common values and goals.
    • Both have underlined the importance of maintaining strategic autonomy with a shared understanding of global risks in many domains.
    • There is a high-level India-France political dialogue that is ongoing in defence, maritime, counterterrorism and the Indo-Pacific.
    • They are now forging ahead with cooperation in issues such as digitisation, cyber, green energy, a blue economy, ocean sciences, and space.

    Conclusion

    • India and France understand each other’s interests and dependencies, be it in relation to China or Russia. In the marking of a long strategic partnership, a common interest in enhancing strategic autonomy and improving resilience, there is much ground ahead for further collaboration.

    Mains question

    Q. India’s partnership with France is built on common values and goals. In recent times, France has emerged as a key defence trading partner of India. Discuss.

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  • India- Nordic can be the powerhouse of the green transition globally

    Nordic

    Context

    • Over the last decades, Nordic countries have been pioneering in green technologies. Over the last decades, Nordic have also been at the forefront of developing new green technologies and solutions such as hydrogen, offshore wind, batteries and carbon capture and storage solutions that are essential for the world to succeed in the green transition it desperately needs. Together, the Nordics and India can deliver key technologies and solutions to stop climate change and boost green growth.

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    Nordic

    India- Nordic connect

    • Nordic-India Summit: At the Nordic-India Summit held in Copenhagen in May 2022, the five Nordic Prime Ministers and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to intensify cooperation on digitalisation, renewable energy, maritime industries, and the circular economy.
    • Joint Nordic solutions for green transition: Modi expressed an interest in joint Nordic solutions that can support India’s green transition.
    • Knowledge exchange and cooperation: It is very much with this in mind that, the Trade Ministers of Norway and Finland, are currently visiting India together During their visit, they aim to showcase the added value to the partnership can bring to India and learn from the impressive innovations and digital solutions being developed in India.
    • Ambition to increase collaboration: They have business delegations and companies that are leaders within sectors such as clean energy, circular economy, digitalisation, tourism, and the maritime sector. They have great ambitions for increased collaboration with India.
    • Nordic business community in India is also growing: The most valued and renowned Nordic businesses are already operating in India and have made substantial investments. There are now 240 Norwegian and Finnish companies in India.

    Nordic

    Trade links that can grow

    • India a priority country for Finland: The past year has seen a significant rise in trade and investments between Finland and India, and India has grown to become a priority country for Finland.
    • For instance: Finland opened a new consulate General in Mumbai. This further increases the number of Nordic representations in India’s commercial capital and will contribute to strengthening India-Finnish ties.
    • Trade between Norway and India has doubled in the last three years: Finnish companies such as Nokia and Fortum see India as their largest growth market now and have some of their most significant investments in India. The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund is likely to become one of India’s largest single foreign investors (around $17.6 billion).
    • Number of investments is increasing rapidly: The Norwegian government has also recently established a new Climate Investment Fund for investments in renewables abroad, and India has been declined as a focus country. Almost ₹1,500 crore have been invested so far in India through the climate investment fund, and the number of investments is increasing rapidly.

    Nordic

    Untapped potential for trade and further collaboration

    • Finland, as a member of the European Union (EU), is a part of the EU-India FTA negotiations, and Norway is negotiating through the European Free Trade Association.
    • Trade in services is an area of significant potential, especially with tourism, education, IT, energy, maritime and financial services.
    • As India takes rapid strides into a green, digital, and innovative future, Nordic countries such as Finland and Norway stand ready to share experiences and be a part of India’s transition.

    Conclusion

    • Although Nordic countries are significantly smaller than India population-wise and a located on the other side of the globe, they have world-leading technologies and expertise to other. Technologies and innovations that are successful and are scaled-up in India can easily be transferred to other parts of the world. Together, the Nordics and India can be the powerhouse of the green transition globally.

    Mains question

    Q. Over the last decades, Nordic countries have been pioneering in green technologies. Together, the Nordics and India can power the green transition the world needs. Discuss.

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  • Chinese balloon over the US and India as a Peacemaker

    balloon

    Context

    • On 1 February, a high-altitude balloon of Chinese origin was spotted over the US state of Montana, which also houses one of the country’s three active nuclear missile silos. on 4 February, US forces shot down the balloon over the country’s South Carolina coast and are now proceeding to collect some of the debris.

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    Balloons for surveillance

    • Balloons could prove much cheaper and loiter for extended periods, providing continuous surveillance over targets, unlike satellites based on orbital motion.

    How The US responded?

    • Initial assessment: The US government officially described it as a surveillance balloon with no immediate military or physical threat but was quick to go back on its initial assessment.
    • Incident as a part of Chinese larger troubling pattern: An American view describes the Chinese balloon incident as part of a larger, more troubling pattern.
    • China claims as it was civilian airship and unintentionally flown: Despite Chinese claims that the balloon was a harmless civilian airship that had unintentionally flown into US airspace, Secretary of State Antony Blinken cancelled his much-anticipated diplomatic visit to Beijing.
    • Issue is a matter of violation of sovereignty: The US has said that the balloon issue is a matter of violation of sovereignty, and, as of 4 February, there are reports of another balloon being spotted over South America that China has admitted is also theirs.

    Similar experiments

    • US utilising high-altitude balloons: Not just China, the US has also experimented with utilising high-altitude balloons in space for a long time. In July 2022, NASA tested an aerial robotic balloon that would work in tandem with an orbiter to carry out scientific measurements of Venus.
    • UK demonstrated in 2022: In August 2022, the UK selected an American company to demonstrate an uncrewed platform for stratospheric communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR). The need was for manoeuvrable, long-duration missions capable of locating targets anywhere on earth.

    Global geopolitical struggle

    • Default mode but with different players: The event if viewed from a historical perspective, the world is back to its default mode, only this time, it has a different set of actors.
    • It involves various forms of power, primarily shaped by technology: Notably, there exist also nuclear weapons in the hands of nine powers, unlike during the Cold War era, when the number was confined to five.
    • Economic and technological integration is much greater than ever before: Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, attempts at desegregating economic and technological fields have not just continued but also gained momentum.
    • Camps led by the US and China: Global cooperation is in short supply and is being morphed into a coalition-building exercise ensconced in primarily two camps led by the US and China.

    India’s posture in a polarized world

    • Benefited from lower cost supplies from China and Russia: Economically, it has maintained trade with China and benefited from lower-cost energy supplies from Russia.
    • India’s tilt towards west: After China’s aggression on the northern borders, India has tilted to the West, especially in the maritime and technological arenas.
    • Increasingly polarised world challenging India’s foreign policy: But as global tensions grow and confrontations increase, India could find itself under pressure to take sides even when its interests are not under contention. Therefore, there is a need to articulate a foreign policy paper on India’s alignment posture in a world that is becoming increasingly polarised.
    • This policy must foster partnerships based on context and not on blocs: India could join hands with the US and its allies in seeking an open and rules-based Indo-Pacific order. It could even partner with China on climate change if there is a congruence of interests.
    • Challenge is to avoid being dragged in war: In grand strategic terms, India’s challenge is to avoid being dragged into a World War that must be considered a growing possibility.

    balloon

    India as peacemaker

    • Exploring the role of a peace broker
    1. What could be at the back of the Indian strategic mind is to play the role of a peace broker and explore every possibility to make it count.
    2. This is important because the state of relations between the US and China does not seem to have many prospects for a return to dialogue that can facilitate consensus on bilateral, multilateral and global issues.
    3. It is a possibility reflected in the inability of the United Nations to intervene, as the major parties involved are themselves in contention for the position of the stronger superpower.
    • India may be getting into a position to make a peacebuilding attempt:
    1. A report by a US-based business intelligence consulting firm corroborates this asserts that India may be getting into a position to make a peacebuilding attempt
    2. According to this survey, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is among the world’s most popular global leaders. With a 78 per cent approval rating, Modi is far ahead of other contenders.

    balloon

    Conclusion

    • It is high time that Indian strategists explore the feasibility of making India a peacemaker. It is a difficult and challenging task that may seem impossible. But there is no reason not to try, as the Prime Minister and the posture of the nation has both internal and external popularity on its side.
  • iCET: Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies between India and US

    iCET

    Context

    • The talks between India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and his American counterpart Jake Sullivan in Washington this week have concluded with the announcement of a new road map for deeper military and techno-economic cooperation between the two countries that is iCET.

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    Background: Idea first mooted in QUAD summit

    • The idea was first mooted in the meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joe Biden on the margins of the Tokyo summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) last May.

    Ups and downs in high technology cooperation in US-India relations

    • Early advances in India’s nuclear and space programs: High technology cooperation has long been a major focus of US-India relations. Early advances in India’s nuclear and space programmes in the 1950s and 1960s involved significant inputs from the US.
    • US nuclear sanctions and reduced cooperation: But the US nuclear sanctions from the 1970s steadily whittled down the extent of bilateral high-tech cooperation.
    • Civil nuclear initiative renewed cooperation: The historic civil nuclear initiative of 2005 opened the door for renewed technological cooperation.
    • Political ambivalence bureaucratic inertia prevented best use: But residual restrictions on technology transfer in Washington and Delhi’s political ambivalence and bureaucratic inertia prevented the best use of the new possibilities.
    • The iCET process and new possibilities ahead: The iCET process, which will be monitored and driven from the PMO in Delhi and the White House in Washington, will hopefully bring greater coherence to this round of India-US technological engagement.

     iCET

    What is Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET)?

    • Cooperation in emerging technology: The iCET is a partnership between India and the US to work together in developing important and new technologies.
    • Areas of collaboration for instance: The iCET involves collaboration in a range of areas including quantum computing, semiconductors, 5G and 6G wireless infrastructure, and civilian space projects such as lunar exploration.
    • Adding depth and breadth to already growing partnership: The iCET’s goal is to increase the technology interaction between the US and India while also potentially adding additional strategic depth and breadth to their growing partnership.
    • Directly monitored by PMO and White house: The Prime Minister’s Office in Delhi and the White House in Washington will oversee and direct the iCET.

    iCET

    Significance of iCET for India

    • The importance of iCET in the context of assertive China: Lending urgency to the iCET is the growing convergence of Indian and US interests in managing the security, economic, and technological challenges presented by a rising and assertive China.
    • India’s alternative for dependence on Russian military technology: India is also looking to reduce its over dependence on Russian weapons and military technology and to produce more weapons at home in partnership with western countries.
    • Boost to India’s technological capabilities: The iCET would provide India with access to cutting-edge technology and expertise in areas that are critical and emerging in nature.
    • Economic growth: Working together on new and important technologies can lead to more business between India and the US, which can help the economy grow as it will bring more investment and employment opportunities.

    iCET

    Other focus area: Cooperation in defence production

    • The two sides are also focused on cooperation in defence production.
    • While much of this cooperation will need to be fleshed out in the months ahead, Doval and Sullivan announced one concrete measure the making of a fighter jet engine in India.
    • GE Aerospace has applied for an export licence for jet engine production and phased transfer of technology to Indian entities. Washington promises to process this application expeditiously. This fits in nicely with Delhi’s plans to modernise its rusty defence industrial base.

    Conclusion

    • If implemented with speed and purpose, the bilateral Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) could lend a new strategic depth and breadth to the expanding engagement between India and the United States.

    Mains question

    Q. What is Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET)? Discuss the Importance of iCET especially for India.

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  • India sends notice to Pakistan to amend 1960 Indus Water Treaty

    indus

    India announced that it wants to modify the 62-year-old Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan.

    Why India issued notice to Pakistan?

    • Unsolicited disputes over Indian hydel projects: India cited Pakistan’s intransigence in resolving disputes over the Kishenganga and Ratle hydropower projects, both in Jammu and Kashmir.
    • Dragging arbitration: India protested Pakistan’s “unilateral” decision to approach a court of arbitration at The Hague.
    • A foul cry: Pakistan’s move to push the World Bank for a Court of Arbitration ran counter to the pre-existing channel of dispute resolution through a “neutral expert” appointed by the World Bank.
    • Renegotiating IWT: The decision to issue notice to Pakistan is a major step and could lead to the unravelling and renegotiation of the water sharing treaty.

    Why is Pakistan objecting?

    • Pakistan had first raised objections to India’s construction of the 330 MW Kishenganga hydroelectric project on the Jhelum river back in 2006.
    • It then objected to plans to construct the 850 MW Ratle Hydroelectric Project on the Chenab river as well.
    • Both India and Pakistan differred on whether the technical details of the hydel projects conformed with the treaty, given that the Jhelum and Chenab were part of the “western tributaries”.

    What is Indus Water Treaty (IWT)?

    • The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in Karachi in 1960.
    • According to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three “eastern” rivers of India — the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was given to India
    • The control over the water flowing in three “western” rivers of India — the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to Pakistan.

    Basis of the treaty

    • Equitable water-sharing: Back in time, partitioning the Indus rivers system was inevitable after the Partition of India in 1947.
    • Empathizing the Partition: The sharing formula devised after prolonged negotiations sliced the Indus system into two halves.

    Why is India rethinking on this treaty?

    • Mostly favours Pakistan: Equitable it may have seemed, but the fact remained that India conceded 80.52 percent of the aggregate water flows in the Indus system to Pakistan.
    • Unnecessarily generous: It also gave Rs 83 crore in pounds sterling to Pakistan to help build replacement canals from the western rivers. Such generosity is unusual of an upper riparian.
    • Reclaiming riparian rights: India conceded its upper riparian position on the western rivers for the complete rights on the eastern rivers. Water was critical for India’s development plans.

    What were the rights accorded to India?

    • Limited irrigation: The treaty allowed India to use western rivers water for limited irrigation use.
    • Unrestricted commercial use: It gave powers for unrestricted use for power generation, domestic industrial and non-consumptive uses such as navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc.
    • Hydel projects: It lays down precise regulations to build any water or hydel projects.
    • Addressing Pak’s concerns: The pact also gives the right to Pakistan to raise objections to designs of Indian hydroelectric projects on the western rivers.

    Significance of the treaty

    • Testimonial to peaceful coexistence: It is a treaty that is often cited as an example of the possibilities of peaceful coexistence that exist despite the troubled relationship.
    • Survived many hostilities: It has survived 3 crucial wars.
    • Most successful bilateral treaty: It is internationally regarded as an example of successful conflict resolution between two countries otherwise locked in a hostile relationship.

    Why has the treaty survived?

    • India’s generosity: It is for India’s generosity on Pakistan for sharing waters of its own rivers.
    • Free flow of waters: India has refrained from weaponizing waters. Pakistan cannot survive without this treaty.
    • Huge dependence Pak economy: About 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on Indus and the riparian rivers waters.
    • Humanitarian grounds: Floods and droughts will starve ordinary Pakistanis while their politicians would still live in luxury.
    • India’s credibility: Backtracking on the treaty could affect India’s stand as global reliable partner who disrespects bilateral agreements.

    Why should India rethink?

    • Blow of terroristan: PM Modi’s words hold relevance that “Blood and waters cannot flow together”.
    • A tit for tat: If India wants, it can either flood or drought-starve Pakistan by not obligating to this treaty.

    Way forward

    • The role of India, as a responsible upper riparian abiding by the provisions of the treaty, has been remarkable.
    • However, India needs to rethink or re-negotiate this treaty.
    • Just like water affects ordinary Pakistanis, so does terrorism affects Indians.

     

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  • Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)

    India and Egypt reiterated their support for the Non-Aligned Movement.

    Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)

    • NAM is a forum of 120 developing world states that are not formally aligned with or against any major power bloc.
    • After the United Nations, it is the largest grouping of states worldwide.
    • Drawing on the principles agreed at the Bandung Conference in 1955, the NAM was established in 1961 in Belgrade, SR Serbia, and Yugoslavia.
    • It was an initiative of then PM Jawaharlal Nehru, Ghanaian President Kwame Nkrumah, Indonesian President Sukarno, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser and Yugoslav President Josip Broz Tito.
    • The countries of the NAM represent nearly two-thirds of the United Nations’ members and contain 55% of the world population.

    Reasons behind NAM creation

    • Balancing the US and USSR: Non-alignment, a policy fashioned for the Cold War, aimed to retain the autonomy of policy (not equidistance) between two politico-military blocs i.e. the US and the Soviet Union.
    • Platform beyond UN: The NAM provided a platform for newly independent developing nations to join together to protect this autonomy.

    Relevance TODAY

    • Changing with emerging scenarios: Since the end of the Cold War, the NAM has been forced to redefine itself and reinvent its purpose in the current world system.
    • Focus towards development: It has focused on developing multilateral ties and connections as well as unity among the developing nations of the world, especially those within the Global South.

    Fading significance of the NAM

    • Loosing relevance: The policy of non-alignment lost its relevance after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the emergence of unipolar world order under the leadership of the US since 1991.
    • De-colonization was largely complete by then, the apartheid regime in South Africa was being dismantled and the campaign for universal nuclear disarmament was going nowhere.
    • Freed from the shackles of the Cold War, the NAM countries were able to diversify their network of relationships across the erstwhile east-west divide.

    India and the NAM

    • Important role played by India: India played an important role in the multilateral movements of colonies and newly independent countries that wanted into the NAM.
    • India as a leader: Country´s place in national diplomacy, its significant size and its economic miracle turned India into one of the leaders of the NAM and upholder of the Third World solidarity.
    • The principle of ‘acting and making its own choices’ also reflected India’s goal to remain independent in foreign policy choices, although posing dilemmas and challenges between national interests on international arena and poverty alleviation.
    • Preserving the state’s security required alternative measures: Namely, the economic situation with the aim to raise the population’s living standards challenged the country’s defense capacity and vice versa.
    • Fewer choices: Wars with China and Pakistan had led India to an economically difficult situation and brought along food crisis in the mid-1960s, which made the country dependent on US food.

    What dictates India’s alignment now?

    • National security: China’s rise and assertiveness as a regional and global power and the simultaneous rise of middle powers in the region mean that this balancing act is increasing in both complexity and importance, simultaneously.
    • Global decision-making: Another distinctive feature of India’s foreign policy has been the aim to adjust international institutions consistent with changes in international system.
    • Prosperity and influence: India’s 21st century’s strategic partnerships aims for India becoming the voice of global South.
    • Multi-polarism: Another means to execute India’s foreign policy strategy of autonomy has been forming extensive partnerships with other emerging powers.

    Why NAM still matters?

    • Global perception of India: India’s image abroad has suffered as a result of allegations that creep into our secular polity and a need arises to actively network and break out of isolation.
    • For the Impulsive US: For India complete dependence on the U.S. to counter China would be an error.
    • Ukrainian invasion has revitalized Cold War: Critics of NAM who term it as an outcome of the Cold War must also acknowledge that a new Cold War is beginning to unfold, this time between the US and China.
    • NAM provides a much bigger platform:NAM becomes relevant to mobilize international public opinion against terrorism, weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), nuclear proliferation, ecological imbalance, safeguarding interests of developing countries in WTO etc.
    • NAM as a tool for autonomy:NAM’s total strength comprises 120 developing countries and most of them are members of the UN General Assembly. Thus, NAM members act as an important group in support of India’s candidature as a permanent member in UNSC.
    • NAM for multilateralism:Though globalization is facing an existential crisis, it is not possible to return to isolation. In the world of complex interdependence, countries are linked to each other one way or another.
    • NAM as a source for soft power:India can use its historic ties to bring together the NAM countries. India’s strength lies in soft power rather than hard power.

    Way forward

    • Strategic autonomy: India is showing signs of pursuing strategic autonomy separately from non-alignment.
    • Bilateralism: Indo-US ties are complementary, and a formal alliance will only help realize the full potential of these relations.
    • Non-alliance: India interacts with other states in expectations to change the international system, but without expectations to ‘ally or oppose.’
    • Deep engagement: India needs deeper engagement with its friends and partners if it is to develop leverage in its dealings with its adversaries and competitors.

    Conclusion

    • A wide and diverse range of strategic partners, including the U.S. as a major partner is the only viable diplomatic way forward in the current emerging multipolar world order.

     

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  • India could lead the G20 agenda in a unique way

    G20

    Context

    • The G20, or Group of 20, has emerged as the primary venue for international economic and financial cooperation. India assumed the presidency of the powerful grouping G20 on 1 December 2022, symbolising the motto and showcasing its philosophies of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”, or “One Earth, One Family, One Future”.

    G20

    What One Earth, One Family, One Future suggests?

    • India committed to making India’s year of chairmanship one that will focus on “healing our ‘One Earth’, creating harmony within our ‘One Family’, and giving hope for our ‘One Future’ and LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment).

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    What is Troika?

    • The troika means previous, current, and incoming presidency which comprise Indonesia, India, and Brazil, respectively.
    • The troika is leading the global agenda at G20 in the current turbulent economic times.
    • Beyond being a forum for policy discussions, the G20 plays the role of reconciling the irreconcilable.
    • The number of talks and years the group has been together has resulted in a mixed bag of success.

    How India should set up a global agenda: Proposed principles

    • Democratising the process of setting the agenda: While setting up the global agenda, it is critical to bring together all the partner nations to understand their priorities. It will ensure diversity, equity, inclusivity, sustainability, transparency, and long-term commitment. This can also help ensure that the domestic policies are aligned and support global priorities.
    • Strike a balance between the needs of developing and developed countries: Since India has a greater responsibility to shoulder, it should not work and seem biased. Similarly, developed nations should instead exercise greater caution with their rich resource pools. To create a win-win scenario rather than a zero-sum game, we must think in terms of multilateralism.
    • Critical to focus on determined priorities: It is critical to prevent the G20 from suffering as other multilateral forums such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) do from an over-expansion of its mandate. While being ambitious in their approach, it is crucial to set defined, limited long-term priorities.
    • Set concrete, measurable, and tangible goals: Measurable outcomes with short, medium, and long-term objectives are crucial. Financial considerations must be made in addition to ensuring inclusivity, sustainability, and accountability.
    • Prevent reinventing the wheels: To encourage faster mutual growth, it is necessary to prevent duplication of efforts. It is important to prevent duplication of existing international institutions, fragmentation of financial resources, and the weakening of the coordinating role of the existing multilateral organisations. The ‘cooperative and collaborative frameworks are key to successful outcomes.
    • Prejudice-free dialogues are required to promote solidarity: Prejudices on international platforms can pose a threat to global security. Dialogue as an antidote is a force for conflict prevention, management, and resolution.
    • Mutual safeguarding is necessary: Mutual safeguarding from disguised elements of neo-colonialism and hegemony is essential for cutting through the socio-cultural and geopolitical barriers between the Global South and the Global North.
    • The principle of Antyodaya (rise of the last person:): The global lens must capture every aspect of a community through inclusive dialogues, from the most marginalised to the most privileged. It is crucial to set the vertical and horizontal plans on a global and national level with the ‘last person standing in line’ in mind.

    G20

    India’s current global Image

    • India for global governance: While India’s successes are being assessed and unprecedented hopes are being expressed about our future, the country’s trust in the global governance architecture is evident through several examples from the recent past, like the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in India as well as remarkable vaccine diplomacy initiative ‘Vaccine Maitri’.
    • Fastest growing economy: With one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies, the country has earned its stripes during tough external and internal times.
    • India among the tops in global climate change performance index: Similarly, India has been ranked among the top five countries under the global Climate Change Performance Index. Moreover, it has taken the lead in spearheading the transition towards cleaner energy sources.
    • Social capitalism nature of economy: With its social capitalism, India has earned a geopolitical sweet spot in the world.

    G20

    Conclusion

    • India can lead the G20 agenda in a unique way the global community has never witnessed. Keeping the essential principles in mind when developing agendas, action-oriented plans, and decisions through collaborative efforts have the potential to yield revolutionary and positive results. The vision of shaping a new paradigm of human-centric globalisation is promising, provided the Global North and South communities provide equal support.

    Mains question

    Q. India assumed the presidency of the powerful grouping G20 with a motto One Earth, One Family, One Future. In this backdrop how India can set up an agenda for future and not only for a period of presidentship.

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  • Lay-off Indian techies scrambling for options to stay in US

    Thousands of Indian IT professionals in the US, who have lost their jobs due to the series of recent layoffs at companies like Google, Microsoft and Amazon, are now struggling to find new employment within the stipulated period under their work visas.

    Recent layoff is US

    • Nearly 200,000 IT workers have been laid off since November last year, including some record numbers in companies like Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon.
    • As per some industry insiders, between 30 to 40 per cent of them are Indian IT professionals, a significant number of whom are on H-1B and L1 visas.

    What one means by Lay-Off?

    • A layoff is the temporary or permanent termination of employment by an employer for reasons unrelated to the employee’s performance.
    • Employees may be laid off when companies aim to cut costs, due to a decline in demand for their products or services, seasonal closure, or during an economic downturn.
    • When laid off, employees lose all wages and company benefits but qualify for unemployment insurance or compensation (typically in USA).

    Why do companies resort to layoffs?

    • Cost reduction: One of the main reasons why workers get laid off is because the company decides to cut back on costs in some way. The need can arise from the fact that the company is not making enough profits to cover its expenses or because it needs substantial extra cash to address paying off debt.
    • Staffing redundancies: Layoffs also occur when a company needs to eliminate some positions due to over-staffing, outsourcing, or a modification to the roles.  A company may want to eliminate redundant positions in order to make its operations more efficient.
    • Relocation: Moving the company’s operations from one area to another can also bring about the need to let go of some workers. Shutting down the initial location will not only affect the workers who get laid off but the surrounding community’s economy as well.
    • Merger or buyout: If a business is bought out or decides to merge with another, the change might lead to a change in the company’s leadership and corporate direction. If there’s new management, the chances are that they’ll come up with new goals and plans, and this can lead to layoffs.

    Immediate triggers of Lay-Off

    • Pandemic Boom: During the pandemic, there was a surge in demand as people were in lockdown and they were spending a lot of time on the internet. The overall consumption saw an upsurge following which the companies went to increase their output to meet the market requirements.
    • Over hiring during pandemic: In order to meet the demands, many tech companies went on a hiring spree anticipating the boom to continue even after the pandemic. However, as the curbs were eased and people started stepping out of their homes, consumption fell, resulting in heavy losses to these big tech companies. Some of these resources were hired at a higher cost because of the sudden upsurge in demand.
    • Fear of recession: As the demand is coming back to pre-Covid levels and seeing the debt bubble almost about to burst and fearing recession, these companies are cutting down their costs by closing down low-performing projects and laying off the excess and high-cost resources they hired to accelerate growth.
    • Russia-Ukraine War: The war has also contributed to these layoffs as it has made the market more volatile. This is clearly visible from stock market volatility.
    • Inflation: Rising inflation has also impacted several world economies severely leading to a crisis in the job market as well. The world is currently hitting a reset button to overcome all these ups and downs.

    Various US Visa Programs

    1) H-1B visa

    • What is it: The H-1B visa category covers individuals who “work in a speciality occupation, engage in cooperative research and development projects administered by the US Department of Defense or are fashion models that have national or international acclaim and recognition.”
    • Who’s covered: The H-1B is most well known as a visa for skilled tech workers, but other industries, like health care and the media, also use these visas.

    2) H-2B visa

    • What it is: According to USCIS, the H-2B program allows US employers or agents “to bring foreign nationals to the United States to fill temporary non-agricultural jobs.”
    • Who’s covered: They generally apply to seasonal workers in industries like landscaping, forestry, hospitality and construction.

    3) J-1 visa

    • What it is: The J-1 visa is an exchange visitor visa for individuals approved to participate in work-and-study-based exchange visitor programs in the United States.

      Who’s covered:
      The impacted people include interns, trainees, teachers, camp counsellors, au pairs and participants in summer work travel programs.

    4) L-1 visa

    • What it is: The L1 Visa is reserved for managerial or executive professionals transferring to the US from within the same company, or a subsidiary of it. The L1 Visa can also be used for a foreign company opening up US operations.
    • Who’s covered: Within the L1 Visa, there are two subsidiary types of visas
    1. L1A visa for managers and executives.
    2. L1B visa for those with specialized knowledge.

    Why these matters?

    • A significantly large number of Indian IT professionals, who are on non-immigrant work visas like H-1B are L1.
    • They are now scrambling for options to stay in the US to find a new job in the stipulated few months’ time that they get under these foreign work visas after losing their jobs and change their visa status as well.

    Impacts of Lay-offs

    • Cut-throat market competition: Layoffs are a painful but expected fact of life in a market economy exposed to competition and trade.
    • Immense loss to the workers: Layoffs can be damaging psychologically as well as financially to the affected workers as well as their families, communities, colleagues, and other businesses.
    • Decreased customer loyalty: When a company lays off its employees it sends out a message to customers that it is undergoing some sort of crisis.
    • Emotional Distress: The person who is laid off suffers the most distress, but remaining employees suffer emotionally as well. The productivity level of employees who work in fear is likely to go down.

    Lessons for India

    • Indian startups grew at a notoriously faster pace than its neighboring regions.
    • But the layoffs are a sobering reminder that the bigger the startups became, the harder they fell.
    • Just because a startup had touched a sky-high valuation did not immediately mean its employees’ jobs were insured.

    Way forward

    • Voluntary retirement program: This enables individuals to transition to retirement smoothly.
    • Cut back on the extras: If a company is laying off workers to reduce costs, it can look for other avenues of saving money. For example, the company managers can freeze additional hiring, reduce or remove bonuses.
    • Consider a virtual office: Another way to cut down on costs is to keep only the most important staff onsite and send the rest of the workers home to work remotely.
    • Offer more unpaid time off: A company owner can also save money by offering more unpaid time off rather than eliminating workers’ positions.

     

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  • Indo-pacific and the New Eurasia

    pacific

    Context

    • Japan, which invented the contemporary geopolitical idea of the Indo-Pacific, is now well on its way to changing the way we think about the relationship between Asia and Europe. In his swing through Europe last week, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s message was simple, the security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific is indivisible.

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    How Japan shaped the idea of Indo-pacific?

    • Japan is not alone for Indo-pacific anymore: Building on the ideas of his predecessor, the late Shinzo Abe, Kishida is determined to build strong military partnerships with Europe. Together Japan, South Korea and Australia are bridging the divide between Asia and Europe long seen as separate geopolitical theatres.
    • South Korea raising profile in Europe: South Korea, which does not always see eye to eye with Japan, is also joining the party by raising its profile in Europe. for example, Seoul, is selling major weapons platforms in Poland.
    • Australia eager to bring Europe in Indo pacific: Australia, which has joined the US and UK in the AUKUS arrangement, is equally eager to bring Europe into the Indo-Pacific.
    • Accelerated by Ukraine war: This process has been accelerated by Russia’s war in Ukraine and the alliance between Moscow and Beijing.

    The idea of Eurasia

    • Many used it as a neutral term: The idea of Eurasia is not new, many used it as a neutral term to describe the vast landmass that connected Europe and Asia.
    • Separate political spheres: Despite continental continuity, Europe and Asia emerged as separate political and cultural spheres over the millennia.
    • Russia as European and Asian: Russia, which straddles this space, saw itself as both a European and Asian power but had trouble becoming a part of either. When post-Soviet Russia’s effort to integrate with the West soured in the 2000s, it developed Eurasia and Greater Eurasia as new geopolitical constructs.
    • Putin’s Eurasian strategy: Consolidating the former Soviet space, restoring influence in Central Europe, building a strong alliance with China, and limiting Western influence in the continental heartland became part of Putin’s Eurasian strategy.

    China-Russia alliance

    • Altering geopolitical dynamics: Well before Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol turned to Europe, it was Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin who altered the geopolitical dynamic in Eurasia.
    • Alliance without limits: Days before he ordered his armies into Ukraine, Putin travelled to Beijing last February to sign an agreement declaring an alliance without limits and no forbidden areas.
    • China’s tilt towards Russia: China, which had made a largely successful effort to cultivate Europe since the 1990s, deliberately avoided taking sides in Europe’s conflicts with Russia. But on the eve of the Ukraine war, Xi chose to tilt towards Moscow by blaming NATO for the crisis in Ukraine.
    • New kind of Eurasian alliance: Together, Putin and Xi unveiled a Eurasian alliance that they might have hoped would deliver the long-awaited coup de grace to the global hegemony of the West. What it did instead was to not only strengthen the Western alliance in Europe but also provide the basis for a new kind of Eurasia an alliance between China’s East Asian neighbours and Russia’s West European neighbours.

    What are the Challenges for India?

    • For India, the rise of Eurasia is making it harder to ride on two boats at the same time: Until now, India could easily hunt with the maritime coalition the Quad in the Indo-Pacific and run at the same time with the continental coalitions led by Russia and China.
    • US Europe and Japan on the one hand and China, Russia on the other: The conflict between the US, Europe, and Japan on the one hand and China and Russia on the other is now acute and shows no signs of immediate amelioration.
    • India’s security challenge on Himalayan frontier: On the downside, then, India’s mounting security challenges from China on the Himalayan frontier and the tightening embrace between Moscow and Beijing will mean the shadow over India’s continental strategy will become darker in the days ahead.
    • Strategic capabilities in partnership: On the upside, the possibilities for strengthening India’s strategic capabilities in partnership with the US and Europe as well as Japan, South Korea and Australia have never been stronger.

    Opportunities for India may include

    • Economic cooperation: Increased economic cooperation and trade between India and countries in Europe and Asia
    • India’s larger role in global affairs: The potential for India to play a larger role in regional and global affairs as a result of increased connectivity and cooperation
    • To address security concerns in Indo-Pacific: Opportunities for India to strengthen its ties with Japan and other countries in the region to address security concerns in the Indo-Pacific

    Conclusion

    • Japan’s strategy of promoting greater connectivity and cooperation between Europe and Asia could present both opportunities and challenges for India in terms of economic cooperation and geopolitical influence. India will have to carefully navigate and balance its relationships with various countries and groups in the region to maximize the opportunities and minimize the challenges.

    Mains question

    Q. Japan is now well on its way to changing the way we think about the relationship between Asia and Europe. In this backdrop discuss opportunities and challenges for India.

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  • India-Egypt Relations

    ties

    Context

    • The decision to invite President Abdel Fattah al Sisi of Egypt as the Chief Guest on Republic Day is an important gesture and should go a long way in imparting fresh momentum to India’s ties with the largest country in the Arab world.

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    What makes Egypt a pivotal player?

    • With a population of almost 110 million, a location that straddles Africa and Asia, a standing army that is the largest in the region, a capital that hosts the League of Arab States and a diplomatic presence that punches above its weight in global affairs, Egypt is a pivotal player.

    ties

    Why Egypt matter to India?

    • Close relationship immediately after Independence: It is a country with which India enjoyed an exceptionally close relationship in the first couple of decades after our independence.
    • Shipping route: The Sumed pipeline runs from Ain Sukhna on the Red Sea coast to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast in Egypt. It is an important sea route.
    • Shared vision of NAM: The personal equation between PM Nehru and President Nasser was legendary and the two also became the stalwarts of the non-aligned movement during the Cold War of the 1960s.
    • Joint fighter project: At the political level, the two countries were close enough for India to send clandestine arms shipments to Egypt during the Suez crisis in 1956 and contemplate nuclear cooperation and a joint fighter project in the 1960s.
    • Indian literature in Egypt: It was a time when Mahatma Gandhi and Rabindranath Tagore were household names and their works were translated into Arabic by leading figures of Arab literature.

    A drift for almost 30 years

    • The two countries drifted apart Particularly during President Hosni Mubarak’s long innings from 1981 to 2011.
    • According to diplomatic folklore, an apparently minor protocol gaffe over seating arrangements during the New Delhi NAM summit in 1983 was seen as a personal affront and it took all of 25 years before Mubarak could be persuaded to return to India in November 2008.

    ties

    Growing ties and willingness to work together 

    • Egypt showed its intent to work together: President Sisi came into power in 2014 and Egypt again showed its intent, first through his participation in the India-Africa Forum Summit in Delhi in 2015 and again through a state visit in 2016.
    • Back-to-back visits by India and emphasis on defence cooperation: Defence cooperation is clearly one of the themes and high-level exchanges over the last two years led to Desert Warrior, the first-ever joint tactical exercise by the air force of the two countries, with IAF sending five Mirage 2000 fighters and a refuelling aircraft to El Berigat Airbase in Egypt.
    • Egyptian interest in India’s Tejas and Dhruv: The Egyptians have also shown some interest in India’s Tejas fighter jets and Dhruv light attack helicopters, although this is still at a fairly preliminary stage.
    • Cooperation to counter hostilities: Equally important is the behind-the-scenes support provided by them in countering hostile moves by Pakistan at forums like the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and by refraining from making any adverse comment during the Nupur Sharma affair.
    • Mutual goodwill: Both countries also demonstrated mutual goodwill by helping each other at crucial times over the last two years.
    • Remdesivir supplied by Egypt to India: When India was hit hard by the second wave of COVID-19, Egypt responded by dispatching three plane loads of medical supplies and providing 300,000 doses of Remdesivir in May 2021.
    • India reciprocated by supplying wheat: India reciprocated a year later when Egypt, the world’s largest importer of wheat, was facing a dire situation following the abrupt halt in wheat shipments from Ukraine. The Indian response also paved the way for Egypt to visit India’s wheat growing areas and register India for regular wheat exports to the country.
    • Bilateral trade is well below the potential but it is growing: Bolstered by these tailwinds, bilateral trade has grown by almost 75 percent last year to touch US$ 7 billion, although this is well below the potential, given the size of the two economies. But it is Egypt’s emerging investment scenario that offers a more interesting opportunity.

    Current status of Egypt’s economy and India’s investment

    • Egypt’s economy is struggling: Growth in the non-oil sector has been anaemic, foreign exchange reserves have dwindled and the Egyptian pound has been in free fall, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) administering a bitter dose of medicine to fix some of the problems.
    • Economic and administrative reforms: After several abortive starts and forced by the gravity of the economic crisis, the Egyptian government finally seems to be getting serious about implementing both economic and administrative reforms
    • Ease of doing business is welcomed by India: Indian companies have invested in Egypt and by and large, they have done well. Indian companies are positive in their feedback, with some saying quite candidly that after years of apathy, they are finally being heard and action is being taken to make ease of doing business a reality.
    • Plan to develop Suez Canal Economic zone into global manufacturing hub: The ambitious plans to develop the Suez Canal Economic Zone into a global manufacturing hub are now gathering critical mass. Gurgaon-based ReNew Power seems to be the first off the blocks from India and has signed an agreement to set up a Green Hydrogen facility. It is clearly driven by attractive tax incentives, cheap and abundant land, 365 days of sun to produce the solar energy needed for the electrolysers, and the strategic location that makes it easy to access the European markets.

    ties

    Way ahead to further improve the ties

    • For India, a deeper economic engagement with Egypt therefore acquires an additional strategic imperative.
    • While Egypt clearly needs to do more to market itself as an investment destination in India, it is also important for industry bodies like CII, FICCI and ASSOCHAM to take a more pro-active approach.
    • ReNew Power has shown the way but it will need a joint government-industry initiative to acquire the scale needed to make an impact.

    Conclusion

    • For now, there are clear indications that India under Prime Minister Modi and Egypt under President Sisi may finally be moving towards achieving some of the potential in bilateral ties that has remained unfulfilled for the last four decades.