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GS Paper: GS1-14.Important Geophysical phenomena such as earthquakes, Tsunami, Volcanic activity, cyclone etc.,

  • The history and evolution of monsoon forecasting in India

    Why in the News?

    The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the rainfall during the June-September southwest monsoon season will be higher than usual, around 105% of the average rainfall over a long period.

    What are the main factors that influence the Indian monsoon, as mentioned by the IMD?

    • El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): El Niño, which is characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, tends to reduce monsoon rainfall over India. Eg, during the 2015 El Niño event, India experienced a weakened monsoon and below-normal rainfall.
    • Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): The IOD refers to temperature differences between the western and eastern Indian Ocean. A positive IOD (warmer waters in the west) is typically linked to above-average rainfall in India, while a negative IOD can lead to drought conditions. Eg,2019 saw a positive IOD, which helped counterbalance the El Niño and brought more rainfall.
    • Himalayan Snow Cover: As observed by Blanford, the amount of snow accumulation in the Himalayas influences the monsoon. A thicker snow cover in the winter months often leads to increased rainfall during the subsequent monsoon. Eg, years with heavy snowfall in the Himalayas tend to see better monsoon rainfall in regions like Northwest India.

    How did Blanford contribute to the development of monsoon forecasting in India?

    • Identified the Snow-Monsoon Relationship: Blanford discovered an inverse relationship between the amount of snow accumulated in the Himalayas during winter and the subsequent monsoon rainfall over India. He hypothesized that greater snow accumulation led to a stronger monsoon. This was the basis for early monsoon predictions. Eg: Between 1882-1885, Blanford used Himalayan snow cover data to predict the intensity of the monsoon, marking a key step in systematic weather forecasting.
    • First Long-Range Forecast (1886): Blanford made India’s first long-range monsoon forecast in 1886, predicting the seasonal rainfall across India and Burma based on his snow-rain hypothesis. This was a pioneering effort in utilizing long-term data for weather predictions. Eg: Blanford’s 1886 forecast was the first to consider annual snowfall patterns in the Himalayas to predict the monsoon’s arrival and intensity across the entire Indian subcontinent.
    • Foundation for Modern Meteorology: Blanford’s work laid the foundation for further development in meteorology and forecasting. His research on snow cover influenced future meteorologists, including Sir John Eliot and Sir Gilbert Walker, who refined and expanded his methods using new data sources and statistical models. Eg: Blanford’s ideas directly influenced later meteorologists, helping to evolve more comprehensive models, including those considering global atmospheric factors.

    Why were IMD’s forecasts inaccurate between 1932 and 1987?

    • Outdated Predictors: The parameters identified by Sir Gilbert Walker, such as the Southern Oscillation and other atmospheric factors, had lost their significance over time, meaning their relationship with the monsoon was no longer consistent. This led to inaccurate forecasts. Eg: For instance, in the period 1932-1987, the forecast errors were significant, with average errors of 12.33 cm for the peninsula and 9.9 cm for Northwest India, indicating the failure of the existing model.
    • Failure to Adapt to New Data: Despite attempts to tweak Walker’s model, the IMD did not fully integrate new meteorological data and evolving atmospheric conditions, leading to persistent inaccuracies in monsoon prediction. Eg: The model failed to predict the 1987 drought, highlighting the inadequacy of the forecasting system during this period and the inability to account for changing atmospheric patterns.

    How has the IMD’s forecasting system improved since 2007?

    • Introduction of Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS): In 2007, the IMD introduced the SEFS, which combined multiple models to generate a more robust prediction. This reduced the error margin and improved the accuracy of forecasts by considering different possible outcomes. Eg: The SEFS helped reduce the average absolute error in forecasts between 2007 and 2018 to 5.95% of the long-period average (LPA), compared to a higher 7.94% error in the earlier period (1995-2006).
    • Launch of the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS): In 2012, the IMD launched the MMCFS, which integrated ocean, atmosphere, and land data for more accurate predictions. This coupled dynamic model enabled better predictions by accounting for the interactions between various climate factors. Eg: The MMCFS contributed to more accurate monsoon forecasts in the years following its introduction, helping the IMD predict monsoon patterns with greater precision.

    What impact did the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) have on IMD’s accuracy?

    • Improved Forecast Accuracy by Integrating Multiple Data Sources: The MMCFS combined data from the ocean, atmosphere, and land, allowing for a more holistic and accurate monsoon forecast. This helped the IMD provide more reliable predictions by considering the dynamic interactions between various climate components. Eg: After the introduction of MMCFS in 2012, the IMD was able to produce more precise monsoon predictions, particularly in terms of seasonal rainfall.
    • Enhanced Long-Term Predictive Capabilities: The coupled model allowed the IMD to improve long-term monsoon predictions by simulating real-world climate interactions more accurately, reducing errors in forecasting and enhancing the reliability of predictions over longer time spans. Eg: The model helped improve predictions such as the 2014 monsoon season, where the forecast matched the actual rainfall more closely than earlier years, highlighting its effectiveness in reducing forecast errors.

    Way forward: 

    • Integration of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: Leveraging AI and ML can further refine IMD’s forecasting models by analyzing vast datasets more efficiently and identifying hidden patterns in climate behavior, improving the accuracy of short- and long-term monsoon predictions.
    • Collaboration with Global Climate Agencies: Strengthening partnerships with international climate research institutions can enhance data sharing and provide more comprehensive insights into global climate drivers affecting the Indian monsoon.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2015] How far do you agree that the behavior of the Indian monsoon has been changing due to humanizing landscapes? Discuss.

    Linkage: Forecasting is essential for understanding the behavior of the Indian monsoon. This article explores the evolution of monsoon forecasting in India, particularly by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

  • Places in News: Sea of Marmara

    Why in the News?

    A powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 6.2 struck Istanbul and surrounding areas with its epicenter located beneath the Sea of Marmara.

    About the Sea of Marmara

    • The Sea of Marmara is a small but significant inland sea in Turkey, acting as a transition zone between the Black Sea and the Aegean Sea.
    • It holds geographical, ecological, and cultural importance, separating Asia and Europe within Turkey.
    • It spans 11,350 km², it is 280 km long and 80 km wide.
    • It is connected to the Black Sea in the northeast via the Bosphorus Strait and to the Aegean Sea in the southwest via the Dardanelles Strait.
    • It receives cold, fresh water from the Black Sea and warmer, saltier water from the Mediterranean, creating a unique fresh-to-salty water transition.
    • The region experiences a humid subtropical climate with hot summers and cold, wet winters, influencing the marine ecosystem.
    • The North Anatolian Fault runs beneath the sea, causing significant earthquake risks, including the recent 6.2 magnitude earthquake near Istanbul.
    • It is home to several islands, including Marmara Island (the largest) and Prince Islands.
    • The city of Istanbul lies along its coastline.
    [UPSC 2014] Turkey is located between:

    Options: (a) Black Sea and Caspian Sea (b) Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea (c) Gulf of Suez and Mediterranean Sea (d) Gulf of Aqaba and Dead Sea

     

  • Study finds a Shift in Peak Time of Maximum Rainfall

    Why in the News?

    A recent study published in Geophysical Research Letters revealed changes in the amount and timing of rainfall using GSMaP Data between 2001-2010 and 2011-2020.

    About Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP)

    • GSMaP is a specialized precipitation product developed through collaboration between ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation) and JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency).
    • It provides high-resolution precipitation data with a 0.1° x 0.1° grid and one-hour temporal resolution, focusing on the Indian subcontinent since March 2000.
    • The data supports rainfall trend analysis, climate modelling, and water resource management.

    Study finds a Shift in Peak Time of Maximum Rainfall

    Key Findings of the Study:

    • Rainfall Trends:
      • West-Central India: Increased daily rainfall (2 mm/day) from 2011-2020 compared to 2001-2010.
      • Eastern India: A decrease of ~1 mm/day in rainfall during the same period.
      • Regional Shifts: Northeastern and eastern India saw decreased rainfall, while the Indo-Gangetic Plain and southern India experienced increases.
    • Vegetation & Soil Moisture:
      • West-Central India saw an increase in vegetation (NDVI from 0.2 to 0.4) and soil moisture linked to increased rainfall.
      • Eastern India had decreased soil moisture during the same period.
    • Shifts in Peak Rainfall Timing:
      • Indo-Gangetic Plain: Peak rainfall advanced by 2-4 hours.
      • West-Central India: Peak rainfall delayed by 1-2 hours.
    • Factors responsible for this Shift:
      • Higher soil moisture supports rainfall, while reduced moisture, particularly in eastern India, decreases rainfall.
      • Higher aerosol concentrations in polluted areas like the Indo-Gangetic Plain lead to earlier rainfall peaks.
      • Changes in atmospheric circulation, topography, and coastal influences also affect rainfall distribution and timing.
    [UPSC 2012] Consider the following statements:

    1. The duration of the monsoon decreases from southern India to northern India.

    2. The amount of annual rainfall in the northern plains of India decreases from east to west.

    Which of the statements given above is / are correct?

    (a) 1 Only (b) 2 Only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2

     

  • Sustaining our Earth and Nourishing our Bodies

    Why in the news? 

    The women from a Self-Help Group in Kanker district (Chhattisgarh), have spared 10 decimals of land for multi-layer farming to mitigate land degradation and under-nutrition, and to secure round-the-year incomes.

    How does the relationship between Climate Change and Nutrition result in Food insecurity?

    • Impact on Food Chain: Climate change affects food value chains, agricultural yields, nutritional quality, food access, and energy-intensive processes, exacerbating existing challenges in food security and nutrition.
    • Lack of Access: The Rome Declaration on Nutrition highlights the global challenges in providing sufficient, safe, diverse, and nutrient-rich food for everyone, with approximately 800 million people lacking reliable access to food and two billion suffering from iron and zinc deficiencies.
    • Disparities in Diets: Disparities in production systems and individual dietary choices lead to populations being unable to maintain balanced diets, contributing to malnutrition and the prevalence of non-communicable diseases.
    • Results into Gender Disparities: Women are disproportionately affected by climate change and poor nutrition, but gender-just food systems, where women have equal rights and access to resources, contribute to resilience against shocks like drought.

    Suggestive measures for reducing Emissions

    • Plant-Based Diet: A diet higher in plant-based foods is more environmentally sustainable than one with more animal foods. Substituting animal products with plant-based meats and dairy alternatives can lower emissions.
    • Mitigating CO2 Concentration: Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations can lead to lower concentrations of protein, iron, and zinc in crops, highlighting the need to mitigate climate change impacts on food nutrition.
    • Value-Chain Approach: Adopting a value-chain approach can optimize dietary choices while lowering emissions, benefiting communities at the household level.
      • For Example, Initiatives like the Millet Mission in Chhattisgarh aim to promote millet cultivation, showcasing its nutritional value, low water footprint, climate resilience, and potential to address both nutritional and environmental concerns.
    • Scaling up diversified Food Production: Scaling up and decentralizing diversified food production systems can reduce emissions by promoting underutilized indigenous foods and improving resilience to climate change.
    • Monitoring Emissions: Continuous and extensive monitoring of emissions linked to food production and distribution is necessary, with accessible assessment tools for local communities to actively participate in emission reduction efforts.

    Conclusion: Crops grown in regenerative and sustainable systems tend to have higher levels of vitamins, minerals, antioxidants, and other beneficial phytochemicals compared to conventionally grown counterparts. By prioritizing soil health and biodiversity, regenerative and sustainable agriculture systems government and farmers can collaboratively promote nutrient-dense foods that nourish our bodies and support overall health and well-being.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q Climate change’ is a global problem. How India will be affected by climate change? How Himalayan and coastal states of India will be affected by climate change? (UPSC IAS/2017)

  • Insights from UNEA-6

    In the news

    • The Sixth Assembly session of the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEA-6) was convened at its headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya.
    • It focussed on the pivotal role of multilateralism in addressing the triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution.

    Abut United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA)

    Details
    Purpose Highest-level decision-making body on environmental matters within the United Nations system.
    Establishment Established in 2012 during the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20).
    Frequency Typically convenes every two years in Nairobi, Kenya.
    Membership Consists of all 193 UN Member States and representatives from observer countries and organizations.
    Decision-Making Adopts resolutions and decisions on global environmental issues.

     

    UNEA-6: Theme and Focus

    • Theme: Effective, inclusive, and sustainable multilateral actions to tackle climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution.
    • Focus: Planning the role of multilateralism in shaping global environmental policy to combat the pressing challenges facing our planet.

    Key Outcomes

    [A] Environmental Multilateralism

    • High-Level Dialogues: UNEA-6 dedicated a day to discussing cooperation and convergence with multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs), emphasizing effective implementation at both national and global levels.
    • Importance: MEAs play a critical role in addressing specific environmental issues at national, regional, and global levels, providing essential frameworks for international environmental governance.

    [B] Energy Transition to Renewable Sources

    • Rapid Adoption of Renewable Energy: The session emphasized the need for three times the current renewable energy capacity by 2030 to foster a nature and people-positive planet.
    • Global Standards Development: Efforts are underway to establish globally acceptable standards for renewable energy, ensuring environmental sustainability and responsible sourcing of minerals.

    [C] Plastic Pollution

    • Call for Action: Discussions centered on a legally binding treaty on plastic pollution, aiming to introduce strong reuse provisions and harmonize definitions of reuse and circularity.
    • Current Scenario: More than half of global plastic production comprises single-use plastics, with significant leakage into the environment.

    [D] Role of Nature-Based Solutions

    • Potential: Nature-based solutions, including reforestation and land restoration, offer promising avenues to combat the climate crisis and restore biodiversity.
    • Financial Constraints: Despite their potential, nature-based solutions receive only a fraction of the required funding, highlighting the need for increased investment and innovative financing mechanisms.

    Conclusion

    • As UNEA-6 unfolds, stakeholders worldwide are poised to collaborate and drive actionable solutions to safeguard our planet for future generations.

  • Early Bloom of Jacaranda sparks Climate Debate in Mexico

    Jacaranda

    Introduction

    • Mexico City’s iconic jacaranda trees, known for their stunning purple blooms in spring, are experiencing an unusual phenomenon this year, with some trees blooming as early as January instead of their typical spring awakening.

    About Jacaranda Trees

    • Jacaranda is a genus of flowering plants belonging to the family Bignoniaceae.
    • Native to tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, with some species found in the Caribbean and Africa.
    • Known for its stunning clusters of trumpet-shaped flowers in shades of purple, blue, or white, Jacaranda trees are prized as ornamental plants in parks, gardens, and urban landscapes worldwide.
    • Jacaranda trees hold cultural significance in various regions, such as Brazil, where their blooming heralds the arrival of spring, and South Africa, where they are commonly planted in urban areas.
    • Some species of Jacaranda produce valuable timber, prized for its lightweight nature, durability, and attractive grain pattern, suitable for furniture and decorative woodworking.
    • While generally not invasive, Jacaranda trees can become weedy in introduced regions, though their ornamental value often outweighs any negative impacts, making them well-tolerated in urban landscapes.

  • Stop the dithering and encourage green elections in India

    Mains Pyq: ‘Simultaneous election to the Lok Sabha and the State Assemblies will limit the amount of time and money spent in electioneering but it will reduce the government’s accountability to the people’ Discuss.

    Prelims Pyq: 

    Consider the following statements :​
    1. In India, there is no law restricting the candidates from contesting in one Lok Sabha election from three constituencies.​

    2. In 1991 Lok Sabha Election, Shri Devi Lal contested from three Lok Sabha constituencies.​

    3. As per the existing rules, if a candidate contests in one Lok Sabha election from many constituencies, his/her party should bear the cost of bye-elections to the constituencies vacated by him/her in the event of him/her winning in all the constituencies.​

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?​

    a.1 only
    b.2 only​
    c.1 and 3
    d. 2 and 3

     

    Some states have embraced online voting. It's a huge risk. - POLITICO

    Why is it in news?

    • Amidst the climate crisis, shifting to sustainable practices across every sphere of human activity has become inevitable and urgent. In August 2023, ahead of the Assembly elections in five States, the Election Commission of India (ECI) voiced its concern over the environmental risks associated with the use of non-biodegradable materials in elections.

    What is the Concept of Green Elections?

    • Green elections involve adopting eco-friendly practices throughout the electoral process, including campaign materials, rallies, and polling booths.
    • Transitioning to sustainable alternatives can mitigate the environmental impact and promote citizens’ health.

    Why there is need of Green Elections?

    • Given that the conduct of every election results in an avoidable carbon footprint, there is a need for eco-friendly elections, which would be a boost to environmental stewardship alongside civic participation.
    • Sri Lanka and Estonia, for instance, have conducted environmentally-conscious elections. As India, the world’s most populous democracy, gears up for the next general election, environmental considerations must be prioritised, paving the way for ‘green elections’.

    Environmental Impact of Elections:

    • In the 2016 US presidential elections, emissions from campaign flights of just one candidate equaled the annual carbon footprint of 500 Americans.
    • Traditional election methods involve energy-intensive activities like rallies, use of loudspeakers, PVC flex banners, hoardings, and disposable items, contributing to environmental degradation.
    • India’s massive elections involving crores of voters and large political rallies exacerbate the environmental impact.
    • Paper-based materials and energy-intensive campaign practices further escalate the environmental footprint.

    Challenges in India for green elections:

    • Technological Challenges: Implementing electronic and digital voting systems requires robust infrastructure, especially in rural areas, to ensure reliable access to technology. Measures to prevent hacking and fraud must be put in place to maintain the integrity of the electoral process.
    • Access and Training: Ensuring fair access to new voting technologies for all voters, including marginalized communities, poses a significant challenge. Training election officials and voters alike on the use of new technologies is essential to facilitate smooth adoption.
    • Financial Constraints: Governments may face substantial upfront costs for acquiring eco-friendly materials and implementing new technology, which could deter financially constrained administrations from pursuing such initiatives.
    • Cultural and Behavioural Hurdles: Overcoming cultural inertia and the perception of physical presence at polling booths as sacrosanct poses a behavioural challenge. Public scepticism towards new approaches and concerns about compromises to vote security must be addressed to gain widespread acceptance.
    • Transparency and Auditing: Ensuring transparency in the adoption of new technologies and implementing effective auditing mechanisms are crucial to building trust in environmentally-friendly election practices.
    Research Findings for mains answer value addition:
    • Research by Willemson and Krips from Estonia (2023) identified transportation of voters and logistics to and from polling booths as the primary source of carbon emissions during elections.
    • The running of polling booths constitutes the secondary source of emissions.
    • Transitioning to digital voting systems could potentially reduce the carbon footprint by up to 40%.

     

    Successful examples of green elections

    Kerala:

    • Campaigning Restrictions: During the 2019 general election, the Kerala State Election Commission urged political parties to avoid single-use plastic materials.
    • Ban on Non-Biodegradable Materials: The Kerala High Court imposed a ban on flex and non-biodegradable materials in electioneering, promoting the use of alternatives like wall graffiti and paper posters.
    • Collaboration for Green Elections: Government bodies collaborated with the district administration in Thiruvananthapuram to ensure eco-friendly elections, including conducting training sessions for election workers in villages.

    Goa:

    • Eco-Friendly Election Booths: In 2022, the Goa State Biodiversity Board introduced eco-friendly election booths for the Assembly elections, utilizing biodegradable materials crafted by local traditional artisans.

    Sri Lanka:

    • Carbon-Sensitive Campaign: The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) party launched the world’s first carbon-sensitive environmentally friendly election campaign in 2019.
    • Carbon Emission Measurement: SLPP measured carbon emissions from vehicles and electricity used during political campaigns and compensated for them by planting trees in each district through public participation.

    Estonia:

    • Digital Voting Initiative: Estonia pioneered digital voting as an online alternative, promoting voter participation while reducing the environmental footprint of traditional paper-based elections.
    • Robust Security Measures: The success of Estonia’s digital voting system demonstrates that accompanying robust security measures can ensure both eco- and electorate-friendly elections.

    Suggested blueprint and Way-forward for Green elections

    • Involving All Stakeholders: The green transition must involve all stakeholders, including political parties, Election Commissions, governments, voters, the media, and civil society.
    • Integration of Directives: Success lies in integrating top-level directives with grassroots initiatives to foster a green transition effectively.
    • Leadership Role: Political parties should take the lead in enacting legislation mandating eco-friendly electoral practices.
    • Legislative Initiatives: This involves campaigning through digital platforms or door-to-door campaigning, reducing energy-intensive public rallies, and encouraging the use of public transportation for election work.
    • Supporting Local Alternatives: Incentivizing the replacement of plastic and paper-based materials with sustainable local alternatives for polling booths, such as natural fabrics, recycled paper, and compostable plastics, aids waste management and supports local artisans.
    • Advocacy for Digital Voting: The ECI can push for digital voting, despite the need for training and capacity building of officials.
    • Ensuring Equal Participation: To ensure equal participation of all voters in the digital electoral process, the government must educate and support voters and ensure equitable access to digital technology.
    • Catalyst Role: Civil society should act as a catalyst in promoting eco-conscious electoral practices.
    • Media’s Crucial Role: The media can emphasize the environmental impact of conventional election methods and shed light on innovative eco-friendly alternatives.
    • Setting an Example: Embracing eco-conscious electoral practices can help India set an example for other democracies around the world.

  • Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by IPCC

    In the news

    • This newscard is an excerpt from an original article published in the TIE.

    What are Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)?

    • The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were rolled out as part of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC in 2014.
    • These are basically emission scenarios that depict pathways of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions resulting from human activities over time, crucial for climate modelling and forecasting.
    • These pathways were introduced to provide a consistent set of GHGs concentration trajectories for climate modelling and research purposes.
    • The RCPs were officially selected and defined based on their total radiative forcing levels in the year 2100.

    These pathways describe various climate change scenarios based on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted.

    1. RCP 2.6: Limits global warming to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels while also attempting to keep ocean acidification under control. Greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced significantly compared to current levels.
    2. RCP 4.5: Reflects an intermediate scenario where emissions peak around 2040 and then gradually decrease. Global mean temperature rise is projected to reach approximately 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
    3. RCP 6: Stabilizes radiative forcing at 6 watts per square meter (W/m²) after 2100 following peaking around mid-century. It aims to achieve a lower level of global warming but does not exclude temporary overshoots beyond 2°C.
    4. RCP 8.5: Presents a high-emission scenario characterized by increasing radiative forcing throughout the century. By 2100, it results in a global mean temperature increase of over 4°C above pre-industrial levels.

    Back2Basics: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    Description
    Establishment Established in 1988 by WMO and UNEP
    Membership 195 member countries.
    Objective Assess scientific info on human-induced climate change, impacts, and mitigation/adaptation options.
    Main Activity Prepares assessment, special, and methodology reports, crucial for international climate negotiations.
    Scientific Research Relies on global scientific community for literature review and conclusions.
    Working Groups Comprises three groups:

    1. I (climate physics),
    2. II (impacts/adaptation), and
    3. III (mitigation)
    Reports Each group issues reports, compiled into a synthesis report.

    Try this PYQ from CSP 2018:

    “Momentum for Change: Climate Neutral Now” is an initiative launched by:

    (a) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    (b) UNEP Secretariat

    (c) UNFCCC Secretariat

    (d) World Meteorological Organisation

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”vot1xq3ins” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

  • What are ‘Super Pollutants’?

    Why in the News?

    • Recently, the annual meeting of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) which took place from 21 to 23 February 2024 in Nairobi, Kenya on the margins of the Sixth session of the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA-6) highlighted the critical importance of international collaboration in combating short-lived climate pollutants, commonly known as “Super Pollutants.”

    What are Super Pollutants?

    • Super pollutants, or short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), have a shorter atmospheric lifespan compared to CO2 but significantly impact climate change and air quality. Methane (CH4), black carbon (soot), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and tropospheric ozone (O3) are some of the major superpollutants.

    Impacts of Super Pollutants

    • Methane (CH 4):
      • Characteristics: Potent greenhouse gas emitted from various sources such as livestock and fossil fuel production.
      • Its Impact: Traps heat in the atmosphere, exacerbating climate change.
    • Black Carbon (Soot):
      • Characteristics: Fine particulate matter from incomplete combustion of fuels.
      • Its Impact: Absorbs sunlight, heats the atmosphere, and accelerates the melting of snow and ice.
    • Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs):
      • Characteristics: Synthetic greenhouse gases used in refrigeration.
      • Its Impact: High global warming potential despite short atmospheric lifespan.
    • Tropospheric Ozone (O3):
      • Characteristics: Secondary pollutants formed from VOCs and NOx.
      • Its Impact: Contributes to smog, has adverse health effects, and acts as a greenhouse gas.

    About Climate and Clean Air Conference 2024:

    • What is the aim and objective?
      • The CCAC 2024 moved the dialogue forward, focusing on the cost of inaction, highlighting ways to further scale up implementation of the Global Methane Pledge, Clean Air Flagship and Kigali Amendment, and collectively charting the course to 2025 and beyond.
    • What did the CCAC 2024 Feature for?
      • National policy and planning: High-level plenary sessions on global, regional and national efforts to reduce methane, black carbon, and HFCs, including the benefits of fast action, and financing for implementation.
      • Science and Technology: Science Policy Dialogue sessions on latest emerging science and how new information can inform policy development. Technical sessions among CCAC Sector Hub members to showcase best practices in key emitting sectors: agriculture, cooling, fossil fuels, heavy-duty vehicles and engines, household energy, and waste.
      • Focus on Implementation: Practical sessions to further refine work plans among CCAC National Consultants; Non-State Partners and Scientific Advisory Panel Members.
    • What are the Functions?
      • The CCAC works at the nexus of climate and air quality, to deliver multiple benefits from the fast mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants.
      • Driven by policy-relevant science and pragmatism, CCAC works from the ground up, equitably and inclusively, empowering our partners to achieve their respective National Goals and catalyzing action — as well as from the top down, bringing together ministers and leaders to drive high-level ambition.
    • About the previous Conference:
      • The CCAC 2023 was held in Bangkok.
      • As an outcome of this conference, CCAC 2023 integrated planning on climate and clean air is essential to identify priority actions in key emitting sectors to scale up mitigation, and action at the national and regional level is motivating collaboration at the global scale.

  • La Nina impacted Air Quality in India: Study

    la nina

    Introduction

    • El Nino and La Nina events have long influenced India’s monsoon patterns, but a recent study suggests a novel connection between these weather phenomena and air quality, particularly during the winter months of 2022.

    Understanding El Nino and La Nina

    • El Nino and La Nina are two opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
    • ENSO is a naturally occurring phenomenon that involves the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific.

    Here is a detailed comparison of El Nino and La Nina

    El Nino La Nina
    Definition Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures Cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures
    Frequency Every two to seven years Every two to seven years
    Duration Several months to a year or more Several months to a year or more
    Impact on winds Weakens trade winds, leading to changes in patterns Strengthens trade winds, leading to changes in patterns
    Impact on rains Reduces rainfall and can cause droughts Increases rainfall and can cause flooding
    Impact on temp. Warmer-than-average temperatures Colder-than-average temperatures
    Global effects Droughts in Asia and Africa, floods in Americas Floods in Asia and Africa, droughts in South America

    Impact on India

    El Nino La Nina
    Associated with weak monsoons and drought-like conditions in India Associated with above-normal rainfall and floods in India
    Sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rises above normal levels Sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean drops below normal levels
    Changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns Changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns
    Shift in the location of the jet stream, affecting the strength and direction of the monsoon winds Increase in the strength of the monsoon winds, bringing more moisture and rainfall to India
    Results in reduced rainfall, dry spells, and heatwaves, leading to crop failures and water scarcity Excessive rainfall can also lead to floods and landslides, causing damage to crops and infrastructure

    El Nino and Indian Monsoon

    • El Nino and its impact on Indian monsoon: El Nino refers to abnormal warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which tends to suppress monsoon rainfall in India.
    • Phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO): ENSO consists of three phases in the Pacific Ocean: El Nino, La Nina (abnormal cooling), and a neutral phase with sea surface temperatures close to long-term averages.
    • Ocean and atmospheric conditions: ENSO involves not only temperature abnormalities of sea surface waters but also atmospheric conditions, including differences in sea-level air pressure and wind strength and direction.
    • Southern oscillation and the role of winds: Southern Oscillation Index measures the difference in sea-level air pressure over the western and eastern sides of the Pacific Ocean, while wind patterns play a crucial role in ENSO.

    How La Nina impacted air quality?

    • Wind Direction Shift: The study identified a significant alteration in wind circulation patterns during the winter of 2022, with winds typically blowing from the northwest direction diverted towards the south due to the prolonged La Nina effect.
    • Anomalous Behavior: This deviation led to a bypass of pollutant-laden winds from Punjab and Haryana away from Delhi towards southern regions, impacting cities like Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Chennai.
    • Extended La Nina Effect: The persistence of La Nina conditions over three years intensified the impact on wind patterns, culminating in noticeable changes in air quality distribution across India.
    • Uncertainties and Further Exploration: While the study highlights the role of La Nina in altering wind circulation and subsequent air quality, uncertainties remain regarding the potential impact of El Nino events on air quality dynamics.

    Conclusion

    • The study underscores the need for continued exploration into the interplay between global weather phenomena like La Nina, local meteorological conditions, and air quality dynamics in India.
    • Understanding these complex relationships can inform policy measures aimed at mitigating air pollution and enhancing environmental resilience in the face of climate change challenges.