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GS Paper: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

  • Domestic politics and its influence on foreign policy

    The article examines the issue of intervention in domestic politics by the external powers and the practical utilities of principles of non-intervention in the internal matters of neighbouring countries.

    Political turmoil in Nepal and India’s reaction

    • Nepal has been going through political crisis for some days now.
    • India’s reluctance to be drawn into the political turmoil in Kathmandu has drawn much attention.
    • India’s refusal is in contrast to Beijing’s active effort to preserve the unity of the ruling communist party in Kathmandu.

    The principles of sovereignty and non-intervention and its violations

    • India and China always insist that other countries should stop interfering in their respective internal affairs.
    • But big nations always intervene in other nations but fend off potential threats to their own sovereignty.
    • That does not prevent others from messing with India and Beijing.
    • Intervention is part of international life; all powers — big and small — frequently violate the principle of sovereignty.
    • The concept of national sovereignty was never absolute.
    • Big nations tend to intervene more, and the smaller ones find ways to manage this through the politics of balancing against their large neighbours.

    Analysing the causes of external interventions

    • The pressure for external intervention often comes from major domestic constituencies within.
    • For example, the conflict between Sinhala majority and Tamil minority in Sri Lanka produces political pressure on Delhi to intervene in Sri Lanka.
    • The demand sometimes comes from outside.
    • In Nepal, for example, elite competition sees different factions trying to mobilise external powers.
    • In recent years, we have also seen the intense interaction between domestic power struggles and external powers like India and China.
    • The Maldives is one example.

    Factors responsible for intervention

    • Given the nature of South Asia’s political geography, very few problems can be isolated within the territories of nations.
    • There is also the tension between the shared cultural identity in the subcontinent.
    • There is also the determination of the smaller nations to define a contemporary identity independent of India.
    • The bitter legacies of Partition leave the domestic political dynamics of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan tied together.
    • India’s relations with its smaller neighbours are also burdened by the legacy of India’s past hegemony and the emerging challenges to it.

    What should be India’s regional policy?

    • India can neither stand apart nor jump into every domestic conflict within the neighbourhood.
    • It is always about political judgement about specific situations.
    • Active and direct intervention in the domestic politics of neighbours must be a prudent exception rather than the rule in India’s regional diplomacy.

    Conclusion

    The subcontinent has historically been an integrated geopolitical space with a shared civilisational heritage. Equally true is the reality of multiple contemporary sovereignties within South Asia. In dealing with these twin realities, the principles guiding India’s engagement should be based on  “mutual respect and mutual sensitivity”.

  • CPEC- The corridor of uncertainty

    The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has turned five.

    What is CPEC?

    • China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a collection of infrastructure projects that are under construction throughout Pakistan since 2013.
    • It is an extension of the Belt and Road Initiative of China.
    • It intended to upgrade Pakistan’s required infrastructure and strengthen its economy by the construction of modern transportation networks, numerous energy projects, and special economic zones.
    • On 13 November 2016, CPEC became partly operational when Chinese cargo was transported overland to Gwadar Port for onward maritime shipment to Africa and West Asia.

    Why in news?

    • The viability of some of the CPEC’s projects, and how they were going to be paid for in a pandemic-hit economy, had come under renewed attention in Pakistan.
    • China had sought additional guarantees before sanctioning a $6 billion loan for the Main Line-1 (ML-1) project, which includes upgrading a 1,872 km rail line from Peshawar to Karachi.
    • This is due to the “weakening financial position of Pakistan” and had “proposed a mix of commercial and concessional loans against Islamabad’s desire to secure the cheapest lending”.

    An overrated project

    • The CPEC, to some degree, has been a victim of its own hype.
    • Its economic figure may never materialise as the plan has been “considerably slimmed-down” from the scope that was first imagined.
    • This largely due to the ever-deteriorating financial situation of Pakistan and a visible debt-trap.
    • Pakistan had established a CPEC authority to speed up the execution of several projects that were mired in delays (and to give the military a greater role in the project).

    Threats of Baloch insurgency

    • Gwadar, the heartland of CPEC certainly faces serious threats.
    • The city is a prime target for Baloch nationalist insurgents. Hence Pakistan has decided to fence the area.
    • This has sparked a new furore among the local residents.

    India’s concerns with CPEC

    • CPEC passes through Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (Gilgit-Baltistan) which is an Indian territory illicitly occupied by Pakistan.
    • Thus CPEC undermines India’s strategic interests and territorial integrity.
    • More importantly, with CPEC, China will get access to the western Indian Ocean through Gwadar port.
    • This will help China in controlling maritime trade and would affect the freedom of navigation and trade-energy security of India.

  • Friend and neighbour: India-Bangladesh relations

    India must strengthen ties with Bangladesh and appreciate Sheikh Hasina’s challenges

    Virtual summit between India and Bangladesh

    • The virtual summit was conducted recently between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bangladesh counterpart Sheikh Hasina.
    • There was a discussion on issues ranging from the violent border incidents to the COVID-19 fight, demonstrates their desire to reboot India-Bangladesh ties that have faced challenges in recent months.
    • PM Modi called Bangladesh a “major pillar” in India’s neighbourhood first policy, while Ms. Hasina invited him to visit Bangladesh in March for the celebrations of the 50th anniversary of its independence.
    • It is a key opportunity for India, which had played a major role in Bangladesh’s liberation in 1971, to revive the relations and address the issues adversely affecting the partnership.

    Importance of India-Bangladesh relationship

    • Bangladesh and India are at a historic juncture of diplomacy embedded in a rich matrix of history, religion, culture, language and kinship.

    (1) ‘Blue Economy’ programme’ –

    • Both countries are looking at strengthening economic cooperation through joint investments and cooperation under the ‘Blue Economy’ programme.
    • The programme entails synergized efforts of littoral states in the exploration of hydrocarbons, marine resources, deep-sea fishing, preservation of marine ecology and disaster management.
    • The industry in India needs to look for opportunities for collaboration in defence, such as in military hardware, space technology, technical assistance, exchange of experience, and development of sea infrastructure.

    (2) India’s Act East Policy –

    • Connectivity offers a game-changing opportunity for India and Bangladesh. This is pivotal to India’s connectivity with its north-eastern region and with countries of ASEAN.
    • This is particularly important in the context of both the Make in India initiative as well as India’s Act East Policy.
    • The two countries also see themselves converging around a lot of commonalities, not just as neighbours battling the scourge of terrorism, but as leading economic partners.
    • In terms of diplomacy in the South Asian region, both countries have had identical views.
    • From how organizations such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) should be going forward in promoting cooperation among its member nations to economic growth.

    Challenges in India-Bangladesh relations

    (1) Violent border incidents –

    • Despite the friendship remaining solid, the border has been sensitive.
    • At least 25 Bangladeshis were killed in the first six months of this year along the border by Indian forces, according to a rights watchdog.

    (2) Sharing of River Waters –

    • The Teesta water dispute between West Bengal and Bangladesh remains unresolved.

    (3) The Citizenship (Amendment) Act and the proposed National Register of Citizens, which Ms Hasina called “unnecessary”, have created a negative impression about India.

    (4) China’s economic footprint is growing –

    • China is making deep inroads into Bangladesh by ramping up infrastructure investments and expanding economic cooperation.
    • Bangladesh is overwhelmingly dependent on China for military hardware.
    • Since 2010, India approved three Lines of Credit to Bangladesh of $7.362 billion to finance development projects. But, just $442 million have been disbursed until December 2018.

    Way Forward

    • It is imperative for India to bolster ties with this all-weather friend, and there may not be a better time to do so than when Bangladesh is to celebrate the golden jubilee of its independence.
    • India should support Bangladesh’s fight against radical elements. India should also not allow the ideological inclinations of the ruling party to spoil the historic relationship between the two countries.
    • New Delhi should take a broader view of the changing scenario and growing competition in South Asia, and reach out to Dhaka with an open mind.
    • There is much room for course correction in Delhi and to shift the focus from legacy issues to future possibilities.

    Practice Question: Discuss the importance of India-Bangladesh relations and various challenges affecting the relations between the two countries. How they can be addressed?

  • India-UK Relations

    India and the U.K. must not allow concerns of the moment to dominate their relationship.

    Practice Question: Discuss the opportunities and the challenges in the India-UK relationships. What is the prospectus of India-UK relations after Brexit and Coronavirus pandemic?

    Secretary’s Delhi visit

    • British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab’s Delhi visit came with a declaration of immediate and longer-term goals for the India-U.K. relationship.
    • It prepares the way for PM Johnson’s India visit, as the chief guest at Republic Day and to invite PM Modi to the U.K. to the G-7 and the Climate Change (COP26) summits next year.
    • Johnson will be the first head of government to visit India after the spread of COVID-19; this will also be his first bilateral visit anywhere after Brexit signalling the importance of ties with India.

    A new page in ties

    • Upgrading the ties – Both countries up for upgrading of the 2004 India-U.K. Strategic Partnership to a “Comprehensive” Strategic Partnership.
    • This will help to envision closer military ties, cooperation in Indo-Pacific strategies, counter-terrorism and fighting climate change.
    • Hoping for FTA – Britain is on a mission to secure free trade partners after Brexit. It has wrapped up nearly 20 trade deals, including most recently with the U.S., Japan, and Vietnam and is hoping for India to sign the same.
    • Corona pandemic and cooperation for vaccine manufacturing – The highlight of India’s relations will be closer cooperation on the coronavirus vaccine.
    • India’s Serum Institute set to produce and distribute the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine in India, and then as part of the COVAX project to other developing countries.

    Challenges in India-UK relations

    • Stagnancy in the relations – India-UK relations are stagnant for the past five years due to Britain’s Brexit preoccupation.
    • The relationship has failed to progress in this time, despite visits by Mr Modi and former British Prime Minister Theresa May.
    • Other less important issues gained the narrative – Issues such as visas and the fate of fugitive Indian businessmen in the U.K. have been allowed to dominate the narrative.
    • The MEA had responded sharply to protests at the Indian High Commission in London over the Article 370 move in Jammu and Kashmir, and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.
    • Britain’s concerns about the farmers’ protests that sparked responses in New Delhi about interference in India’s internal matters.
    • Sometimes, intense interest from the British Indian diaspora makes Indian politics a factor in British politics is a reminder of how closely linked the two countries remain.
    • A new chapter in India-UK relationship would necessarily entail the K. to be more sensitive to India’s concerns, and for India to be less sensitive when Britain expresses its concerns.

  • [pib] Haldibari – Chilahati Rail Link

    Ours and Bangladeshi PM has jointly inaugurated a railway link between Haldibari in India and Chilahati in Bangladesh.

    Examine the opportunities and challenges in the adoption PPP model by the Indian Railways.

    Haldibari – Chilahati Rail Link

    • This rail link being made functional is the 5th rail link between India and Bangladesh.
    • It was operational till 1965. This was part of the Broad Gauge main route from Kolkata to Siliguri during partition.
    • Trains travelling to Assam and North Bengal continued to travel through the then East Pakistan territory even after partition.
    • For example, a train from Sealdah to Siliguri used to enter East Pakistan territory from Darshana and exit using the Haldibari – Chilahati link.
    • However, the war of 1965 effectively cut off all the railway links between India and the then East Pakistan.
    • So on the Eastern Sector of India partition of the railways thus happened in 1965.  So the importance of the reopening of this rail link can be well imagined.

    A British-era legacy

    • The railway network of India and Bangladesh are mostly inherited from British Era Indian Railways.
    • After partition in 1947, 7 rail links were operational between India and the then East Pakistan (up to 1965). Presently, there are 4 operational rail links between India and Bangladesh.
    • They are, Petrapole (India) – Benapole (Bangladesh),  Gede (India) – Darshana (Bangladesh), Singhabad (India)-Rohanpur (Bangladesh),  Radhikapur (India)–Birol (Bangladesh).

    Benefits offered by the rail

    • The rail link will be beneficial for transit into Bangladesh from Assam and West Bengal.
    • It will enhance rail network access to the main ports, dry ports, and land borders to support the growth in regional trade and to encourage economic and social development of the region.
    • Common people and businessman of both countries will be able to reap the benefit of both goods and passenger traffic, once passenger trains are planned in this route.
    • With this new link coming into operation,  tourists from Bangladesh will be able to visit places like Darjeeling, Sikkim, Dooars apart from countries like Nepal, Bhutan etc easily.
    • Economic activities of these South Asian countries will also be benefitted from this new rail link.

  • Hazardous ideas for the Himalayas

    By planning hydropower projects, India and China are placing the region at great risk.

    China’s new hydropower project

    • Recently China announced that it is planning to build a major hydropower project as a part of its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25), on the YarlungZanbo River, in Mêdog County in Tibet.
    • The hydropower generation station is expected to provide 300 billion kWh of electricity annually.
    • The Chinese authorities say the project will help the country realize its goal of reaching a carbon emission peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.

    Misadventures

    • Such ‘super’ dams projects are very unviable as they are being planned in an area that is geologically unstable.
    • There are two hydropower projects being built in Arunachal Pradesh on the tributaries of the Brahmaputra: the 600 MW Kameng project on the Bichom and Tenga Rivers and the 2,000 MW Subansiri Lower Hydroelectricity Project.
    • China has already completed 11 out of 55 projects that are planned for the Tibetan region. In this race, the two countries overestimate their economic potential and grossly underestimate the earthquake vulnerability of the region.
    • High seismic zones coincide with areas of high population concentration in the Himalayan region where landslides and glacial lake outburst floods are common.

    Practice Question:‘’Carbon neutrality should not be at the expense of the environment.” Elaborate with proper examples.

    Havocs created due to these earthquakes

    • About 15% of the great earthquakes of the 20th century (with a magnitude of more than 8) occurred in the Himalayan region.
    • The northeast Himalayan band has experienced several large earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above in the last 100 years, more than the share from other parts of the Himalayas.
    • The 1950 earthquake just south of the McMahon Line was of 6 magnitudes. It was the largest continental event ever recorded and devastated Tibet and Assam.
    • The earthquake killed thousands, and caused extensive landslides, widespread land level changes and gaping fissures. It resulted in water and mud oozing in the Himalayan ranges and the upper Assam valley.
    • The earthquake was felt over an extensive area comprising parts of India, Tibet, erstwhile East Pakistan and Myanmar.
    • The2015 Gorkha earthquake of magnitude 7.8 in central Nepal resulted in huge losses in the hydropower sector. Nepal lost about 20% of its hydropower capacity consequent to the earthquake.
    • About 30 projects with a capacity of 270 MW, mostly located along the steep river valleys, were damaged.

    What are the issues of high concern?

    • The main mechanisms that contributed to the vulnerability of hydropower projects were found to be landslides, which depend on the intensity of seismic ground shaking and slope gradients.
    • Heavy siltation from giant landslides expected in the project sites and headwater region from future earthquakes will severely reduce the water-holding capacity and life expectancy of such dams.
    • Even without earthquakes, the steep slopes made of soft rocks are bound to slide due to deforestation and road-building. These activities will get intensified as part of the dam-building initiatives.
    • Desilting of dams is not an economically viable proposition and is technologically challenging.

    A transnational asset under threat

    • The Himalayan range is a transnational mountain chain and is the chief driver of the Asian climate.
    • It is a source for numerous Asian river systems and glaciers which are now under the threat of degradation and retreat due to global warming; these river systems provide water for billions of people.
    • The ongoing low-level military confrontations between these two countries have led to demands for further infrastructural development on both sides, including all-weather roads, much to the peril of regional biodiversity and the livelihoods of the indigenous population.
    • The Himalayas have seen the highest rate of deforestation and land-use changes.

    Way Forward

    • There is a need for India and China to sit together to deliberate on the consequences of such misadventures in an area where massive earthquakes are bound to take place.
    • The upper Himalayas should be converted into a nature reserve by an international agreement.
    • The possibility of a Himalayan River Commission involving all the headwater and downstream countries needs to be explored.
    • There is a need to understand that – ‘’Carbon neutrality should not be at the expense of the environment’’.

  • Places in news: Bhashan Char Island

    Bangladesh has transported more than 1,600 Rohingya refugees to a low-lying island in the first phase of a controversial planned relocation of 1,00,000 people.

    Can you see, what the so-called champions of tolerance and human rights doing to the refugees in their own country!

    Bhashan Char Island

    • Bhasan Char also known as Char Piya, is an island in Hatiya, Bangladesh.
    • Located 34 kilometres (21 miles) from the mainland, its name in Bengali means “floating island.”
    • The island was formed with Himalayan silt in 2006 spanning 40 square kilometres.
    • It is underwater from June to September annually because of the monsoon, and it has no flood fences.
    • In June 2015, the Bangladeshi government suggested resettling Rohingya refugees on the island under its Ashrayan Project.
    • The proposal was characterized by the UN Refugee Agency as “logistically challenging”.

    Extraditing to another hell

    • Bhashan Char is a flood-prone island that emerged from the sea 20 years ago.
    • The refugees had been coerced into going to this flood-prone island which is also vulnerable to frequent cyclones.
    • This compact island is too small to occupy and nurture the Rohingya population and there is chronic overcrowding in camps.

  • Geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East and consequences for Indian subcontinent

    Three broad trends emerging from the Middle East and its implication for the region have been discussed here.

    Growing vulnerability of Iran and implications for subcontinent

    • The brazen murder of a top Iranian nuclear scientist highlights the Islamic Republic of Iran’s growing strategic vulnerabilities.
    • This geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East has major consequences for the subcontinent.
    • Whether they want to or not, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh must deal with three broad trends that define the new Middle East.

    3 Trends in the Middle East

    1) Iran’s growing isolation

    •  The Trump administration and the Republicans, Israel and the Gulf Arabs have a shared interest in preventing the next US President from renewing nuclear diplomacy with Iran and ending Tehran’s isolation.
    • The assassination of Fakhrizadeh is about achieving that political objective.
    • If Iran retaliates vigorously, it will invite an all-out confrontation with Israel and the US.
    • Holding back will expose Iran’s weakness and sharpen internal divisions between pragmatists who want to engage the US and the hardliners.
    • The frequent attacks on high-profile Iranian targets indicate hostile penetration of its society such that domestic opponents of the regime are now willing to collaborate with foreign security agencies, including Israel’s Mossad.
    •  Iran’s internal political weakness is compounded by the massive economic pain imposed by the Trump administration through sanctions.
    • Iran has much goodwill in South Asia, but India and its neighbours have no desire to get sucked into Tehran’s conflicts with the Arabs or the US.

    2)  Transformation of Arab relations with Israel

    • The fear of Iran has been driving Gulf Arabs to embrace Israel.
    • In the last few months, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have normalised ties with Israel.
    • There is speculation of an impending normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
    • Pakistan’s Prime Minister has talked of pressure, apparently from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, on recognising Israel.
    • If Pakistan recognises Israel, Bangladesh would not want to be left behind.
    • Economic and technological collaboration with Israel will give Bangladesh’s economy and foreign policy a big boost.
    • For Israel, having Bangladesh and Pakistan, two of the world’s largest Islamic nations, recognise it would be a great ideological and political bonus
    • An India that proclaims the virtues of engaging all sides in the Middle East can’t grudge the same privilege for Israel in South Asia.

    3) Rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Turkey

    • While Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE want to return the Middle East towards political and religious moderation, the once secular Turkey has become the new champion of political Islam.
    • Turkey’s contestation with Saudi Arabia is already having an impact on India and Pakistan.
    • Turkey is now hostile to India and has joined Pakistan in taking up the Kashmir question at international forums.
    • For Pakistan, this seemed a useful counter to the Gulf Arabs, who were ramping up strategic ties with India.
    • However, UAE and Saudi Arabia have the option to put massive costs on the Pakistani economy that can’t be plugged by Turkey or Malaysia.

    Conclusion

    Although India has made some important adjustments to its engagement with the Middle East in recent years, Delhi can’t take its eyes off the rapid changes in the region.

  • Recalibrating India-Nepal ties

    The article suggests the need for a relook at the India-Nepal ties in the changing geopolitical circumstances. 

    Unchanging perspective on of each other

    • Many in Nepal continue to equate being anti-India with being nationalistic.
    • Politicians and political parties whip up such sentiment especially before an election.
    • Prime Minister K.P. Oli won the 2017 election partly because he projected himself as someone who stood up to India during the blockade.
    • He again whipped up nationalistic sentiments when he got the Nepal map amended to add new territory.
    • India continues to think that by providing aid and development projects in Nepal, it can win Nepali hearts.
    • But despite pouring billions of rupees into Nepal over decades, it has still not been able to do so.
    • Therefore, it needs to reflect on what it is not doing right.

    India’s aid Vs Chines aid to Nepal

    • Two issues are important to understand here.
    • First, all aid to Nepal from countries other than India and China go through the Plans of the Government of Nepal.
    • Indian aid is seen in Nepal as a favour bestowed on a constituency it wants to garner support from rather than a contribution to Nepal’s planned development.
    • Second, India competes with China in providing aid outside government budgets.
    • And China picks up projects of visibility and strategic location.
    • Chinese involvement in Nepal has increased since the April 2015 earthquake and Nepal is surely an area of strategic influence in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

    People-to-people ties

    •  In the past two decades, two significant changes have happened.
    • 1)  Indian workers in Nepal constitute a big part of the workforce and send about $3 billion to India every year.
    • In terms of remittances to India, Nepal ranks eighth.
    • So, the Government of India needs to keep in mind that many households in India are being run with remittances from Nepal.
    • 2) Nepalis have migrated in the past 20 years to more than a hundred countries; India is not the only country that Nepalis rely on for jobs or education.
    • This is a new Nepal comprising young people with global aspirations.
    • Meanwhile, Nepal needs to plan how it engages with the youth in mainland India for whom Nepal is just like Bangladesh or Myanmar.

    Consider the question “The unchanging perspective of each other in both countries calls for the recalibration of India-Nepal ties. Examine the factors that India should consider while having a relook at its ties with Nepal”

    Conclusion

    There are some fundamentals that we simply cannot forget: geography will not change, the border will remain open as millions of livelihoods on both sides depend on it, and China is going to be a big global player with varied interests in the neighbourhood. Therefore, the India-Nepal relationship has to be recalibrated.

  • South Asian University

    The Delhi-based South Asian University, established by all eight SAARC countries, has not had a president for over a year, while its executive council and governing board have not met for almost two and three years respectively.

    Note the features of SAARC, ASEAN and East Asia Summit.

    South Asian University

    • South Asian University (SAU) is an International University sponsored by the eight Member States of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
    • The eight countries are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
    • India, as the host and the largest country in the SAARC group, bore the entire capital cost for setting up the university, and also pays 50% of the operational costs.
    • SAU attracts students predominantly from all the eight SAARC countries, although students from other continents also attend.
    • There is a country quota system for admission of students. Every year SAU conducts admission test at multiple centres in all the eight countries.
    • The degrees of the university is recognised by all the member nations of the SAARC according to an inter-governmental agreement signed by the foreign ministers of the eight-member states.

    Institution on failure

    • After a decade of existence, the university has yet to appoint a non-Indian president, despite rules stipulating a rotation among the member countries.
    • At a time when the Union government is trying to encourage international education in India, an existing international institution is facing a crisis of leadership.

    A matter of reluctance

    • According to the agreement signed by all the SAARC countries, the first president should have been from India, and then rotated among the other countries in alphabetical order.
    • So the next president should be from the Maldives.
    • But the MEA has put an advertisement calling only for Indian applicants, but there has been no appointment after one year.