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GS Paper: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

  • Applying lessons from India-Bangladesh ties to relations with Pakistan

    There is a sharp contrast between India’s relations with its neighbours two neighbours: Pakistan and Bangladesh. The article suggest drawing on the lessons from Indo-Bangladesh relations to mend Indo-Pak relations.

    Indo-Bangladesh relations

    • Prime Minister of India will travel to Dhaka this week to commemorate Bangladesh’s Declaration of Independence from Pakistan 50 years ago.
    • From being one of the world’s poorest countries in 1972, Bangladesh is now racing to be in the world’s top 25 economies by the end of this decade.
    • It is also a time for deeper reflection — on the inability of the region to come to a closure on the two Partitions of the subcontinent, the first in 1947 and the second in 1971.
    • Delhi and Dhaka have started finding ways to overcome the tragedy of the Partition to chart a new course of bilateral and regional cooperation.
    • Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has provided strong leadership in advancing ties with India over the last decade and more.
    • Recently the Indian government mobilised enough political support to get a boundary settlement agreement with Bangladesh approved by the Parliament.
    • India also backed an international tribunal’s award resolving the maritime territorial dispute with Bangladesh.
    • The steady improvement in bilateral relations over the last decade has reflected in growing trade volumes, expanding trans-border connectivity, mutual cooperation on terrorism, and widening regional cooperation.

    Applying lessons from Indo-Bangladesh relations to Indo-Pak relations

    • Positive changes in India’s relations with Pakistan have been elusive.
    • Hopes have been rekindled by the agreement late last month between the two military establishments to a ceasefire on the border and to address each other’s concerns.
    • Following are the lessons we can learn and apply productively to Indo-Pak relations

    1) Importance of political stability

    • First lesson is the importance of political stability and policy continuity that have helped Delhi and Dhaka deepen bilateral ties over the last decade.
    • In contrast, the political cycles in Delhi and Islamabad have rarely been in sync.
    • Pakistan’s mainstream civilian leaders have all supported engagement with India.
    • In fact, it is the military that is yet to make up its collective mind.

    2) Concerns for mutual security

    • Cooperation in countering terrorism built deep mutual trust between Dhaka and Delhi.
    • That trust helped deal with many complex issues facing the relationship.
    • In the case of Pakistan, its army has sought to use cross-border terrorism as a political lever to compel India to negotiate on Kashmir.
    • If sponsoring terror seemed a smart strategy in the past, it has now become the source of international political and economic pressure on Pakistan.

    3) Depoliticise national economic interests

    • Delhi and Dhaka have steadily moved forward on issues relating to trade, transit and connectivity by dealing with them on their own specific merits.
    • Pakistan, on the other hand, has made sensible bilateral commercial cooperation and regional economic integration hostages to the Kashmir question.
    • It is not clear if Pakistan is ready to separate the two and expand trade ties while talking to India on Kashmir.

    Consider the question “The steady improvement in bilateral relations with Bangladesh over the last decade can offer valuable lessons to be applied to India-Pakistan relations. In light of this, examine the factors that India and Pakistan need to focus on to achieve improvement in bilateral relations.”

    Conclusion

    Both India and Pakistan need to recognise the importance of pursuing the national well being through regional cooperation. That is exactly what Bangladesh has done in the last decade.

  • Mizoram’s bond with people fleeing Myanmar

    Mizoram CM has expressed his sympathies for the people fleeing areas bordering Mizoram. These areas are inhabited by Chin communities who are ethnically Mizo.

    Map reading: Note all NE states bordering Myanmar.

    Who are the Chin communities?

    • The Chin Hills, or the Indo-Chin hill ranges as they are often called, are a mountainous region in north-western Myanmar.
    • At an elevation of 2100-3000 metres, this heavily- forested mountain region was the home of numerous tribes that fall under the Zo umbrella.
    • The Zo people include all the tribes that come under the Chin-Kuki-Mizo ethnic group spread across Myanmar, India and Bangladesh.
    • They include a host of tribes, sub-tribes and clans such as Chin, Kuki, Mizo, Zomi, Paitei, Hmar, Lushei, Ralte, Pawi, Lai, Mara, Gangte, Thadou etc.

    Their ethnic origin

    • Believed to have originated in China, the tribes migrated through Tibet to settle in Myanmar, and speak a group of the Tibeto-Burman languages.
    • But constant feuds among clans of different tribes and their kings (chieftains), drove many of the clans westwards, towards Mizoram and some parts of Manipur, in the 17th century.
    • Here the tribes set up new villages and colonies, but even with their new identities, they remain socially and emotionally tied with the Chin tribes of Myanmar.
    • When British rule extended towards the Northeast, Mizoram was denoted an “excluded area” and remained outside the administration of the British, governed only by the Scheduled District Act.

    Nature of the bond with Mizos

    • While they are separated by a 510-km India-Myanmar border, they consider themselves “one people’’ despite past conflicts: the Indo-Chin people.
    • Besides the shared ethnicity, what binds these two peoples together is a shared religion.
    • Mizoram is predominantly Christian, as are the Chin people of Buddhist-majority Myanmar.
    • Mizoram officials refer to the refugees’ status as a Christian minority people in seeking asylum for them, and also the fear of persecution by the junta.
    • Rih Dil in Chin state, Myanmar, is a cultural and spiritual lake for the Mizos, deeply revered in folklore, shaping pre-Christian belief of traditional Mizo views of life after death.

    How well are the two sides connected?

    India’s Look East, Act East policy and greater interactions on the border have strengthened an already strong connection between the people on either side of the border.

    • The Mizoram-Myanmar border is porous, with very little fencing, if any.
    • While the latest influx has been driven by the coup, Myanmar residents have been crossing this open border for decades.
    • It is understood that the actual number of refugees is much higher, with more arriving every day.
    • In the early 20th century, Mizos from Champhai district and elsewhere migrated to Myanmar, setting up villages in the Kalay-Kabaw valley.
    • Many are believed to have joined the Myanmar army for lucrative employment.
    • Many Mizo families also migrated to Myanmar in 1966 and 1986, when the Mizo National Front sought secession from India, to escape counter-insurgency operations from the Indian government.

    The Free Movement Regime

    • The Mizo social fabric spans across the border, which now separates families.
    • The two countries have an arrangement called the Free Movement Regime (FMR) that allows locals on either side to go up to 16 km on the other side and stay up to 14 days.
    • Thousands regularly cross over on either side for work and to meet relatives, often unofficially and for extended periods.
    • Marriages are often arranged across the border.

    Trade dependency on Myanmar

    • In border trade, Mizoram depends to a large extent on Myanmar for many essential commodities including beef, pork, good quality rice, fruits, and household utensils.
    • Mizoram sends across items scarce in Myanmar such as medicines or fertilisers.

    What is India’s policy on asylum seekers?

    • India is not a signatory to the 1951 United Nations Convention and 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees, and it does not currently have a national law on refugees.
    • In 2011, the Centre circulated to all states and UTs a Standard Operating Procedure to deal with foreign nationals who claimed to be refugees.
    • An illegal immigrant can be a foreign national who enters India on valid travel documents and stays beyond their validity or a foreign national who enters without valid travel documents.
    • Cases can be justified on grounds of well-founded fears of persecution on account of race, religion, sex, nationality, ethnic identity, membership of a particular social group or political opinion.
    • They can be recommended by states or UTs to the Home Ministry for a long-term visa (LTV) after due security verification.

    Note: LTV-holders are allowed to take up private-sector employment and enrol in any academic institution.

    What is happening in Mizoram right now?

    • The Mizo Zirlai Pawl, the apex Mizo students body, on February 3 held a sit-in demonstration in Aizawl in solidarity with the people of Myanmar.
    • Several Mizo village council authorities have issued letters and statements affirming their willingness to accommodate Chin refugees.
    • The CM gave an assurance in the Assembly that the state government would be ready to provide assistance to civilians fleeing the Myanmar regime.

    Way ahead

    • With the swell of sympathy among Mizos for the fleeing Chin people and increasing pressure on the state government, it is unlikely that Mizoram will back down any time soon — unless the Centre devises a way out.

  • Gandhi Peace Prize

    The Culture Ministry has announced that Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and the late Sultan of Oman, Qaboos bin Said Al Said, would be awarded the Gandhi Peace Prize for 2020 and 2019 respectively.

    Note the features of the award such as prize, the composition of jury etc.

    Gandhi Peace Prize

    • The International Gandhi Peace Prize, named after Mahatma Gandhi, is awarded annually by the Government of India.
    • As a tribute to the ideals espoused by Gandhi, the GoI launched the International Gandhi Peace Prize in 1995 on the occasion of the 125th birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi.
    • This is an annual award given to individuals and institutions for their contributions towards social, economic and political transformation through non-violence and other Gandhian methods.

    Its features

    • The award carries ₹1 crore (US$140,000) in cash, convertible in any currency in the world, a plaque and a citation.
    • It is open to all persons regardless of nationality, race, creed or gender.
    • A jury consisting of the PM of India, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, the Chief Justice of India, Speaker of the Lok Sabha and one other eminent person decides the awardees each year.
    • Ordinarily, only proposals coming from competent persons invited to nominate are considered.
    • However, a proposal is not taken as invalid for consideration by the jury merely on the ground of not having emanated from competent persons.

    Information about the awardees

    (1) Sheikh Mujibur Rahman (1920-1975)

    • The Prize recognizes the immense and unparalleled contribution of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in inspiring the liberation of Bangladesh.
    • It acknowledges the contribution in bringing stability to a nation born out of strife, laying the foundation for the close and fraternal relations between India and Bangladesh and promoting peace and non-violence in the Indian subcontinent.

    (2)Sultan Qaboos Bin Said (1940-2020)

    • Sultan Qaboos was a visionary leader whose twin policy of moderation and mediation in addressing international issues won him praise and respect across the globe.
    • He played an important role in supporting peace efforts in various regional disputes and conflicts. H.M. Sultan Qaboos was the architect of the special ties between India and Oman.
    • He had studied in India and always maintained a special relationship with India.
    • Under his leadership, India and Oman became strategic partners and our mutually beneficial, comprehensive partnership strengthened and scaled newer heights.

  • Myanmar Refugees Issue

    India has sealed all entry points along the border with the southeast Asian neighbour and is closely monitoring to prevent any Myanmar nationals from entering the country.

    Issue: Problem with refugees

    • At least 1,000 people from the adjoining Chin State of Myanmar are said to have crossed over to Mizoram, fearing a military crackdown.
    • The Mizoram government favours providing refuge to the Chins that are ethnically related to the majority Mizos in the State.
    • However, the Ministry of Home Affairs has made it clear that “India is not a signatory to the 1951 UN Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and the 1967 Protocol theron”.

    When did the refugees start arriving?

    • Mizoram began feeling the heat a month after the military coup when three police personnel crossed over to Lungkawlh village in Serchhip district.
    • The influx of Myanmar nationals was reported from Hnahthial, Champhai, Saitual and Serchhip districts.
    • Most of the refugees waded across the Tiau River that runs along much of Mizoram’s 510-km border with Myanmar.

    Try answering this:

    The cross-border movement of insurgents is only one of the several security challenges facing the policing of the border in North-East India. Examine the various challenges currently emanating across the India-Myanmar border. Also, discuss the steps to counter the challenges. (15 Marks)

    Is this the first time this has happened?

    • Extremism, counter-insurgency and sectarian violence have driven people out of Myanmar into India in the past as well.
    • More than 1,200 Buddhists and Christians from Myanmar’s Arakan State had taken refuge in Mizoram’s Lawngtlai district in 2017.
    • They fled their homes after the Myanmar Army clashed with the extremist Arakan Army.
    • The refugees stayed back for more than a year. Thousands of Chins are said to be living in Mizoram for more than 40 years now.

    How porous is the border?

    Unlike India’s border with Pakistan and Bangladesh, much of the border with Myanmar is without any fence.

    • The Assam Rifles personnel guard the border but a tough terrain comes in the way of maintaining airtight vigil.
    • There have been calls to fence the border. Fencing the border would also help in checking the movement of extremist groups to and from Myanmar.
    • Some are against the idea, insisting that a fence would make the “free movement” of border residents into each other’s country difficult.
    • The two countries had in 2018 agreed to streamline the movement of people within 16 km of the border on either side.

    Note: Myanmar has indefinitely stalled the agreement to streamline the free movement of people within 16 km along the border citing domestic issues.

    Mizoram welcomes the refugees

    • As a humanitarian gesture, the Mizoram government has issued a standard operating procedure (SOP) to Deputy Commissioners of border districts to facilitate the entry of refugees and migrants.
    • The SOP stated that all Myanmar nationals entering Mizoram in connection with the political developments in the country shall be properly identified.
    • The government said those facing a threat to their lives should be treated as refugees, given medical care, relief and rehabilitation and security.

    Where do the Centre and Mizoram stand now?

    • The SOP was revoked on March 6 after the Centre conveyed its displeasure to the State over the development.
    • The State governments have no powers to grant “refugee status to any foreigner”.

  • Maritime border dispute between Kenya and Somalia

    In a move that is set to further undermine stability in East Africa, Kenya has said that it will not take part in proceedings of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over its maritime border dispute with neighbouring Somalia.

    Can you recall the terms like “Scramble for Africa”, “Paper Partition of Africa”? If yes, then you know very well the malady of the present-day Continent of Africa.

    What is the news?

    • Nairobi has accused the top UN body of bias.
    • The move comes after Somalia’s decision to sever diplomatic relations with Kenya in December after it accused Nairobi of meddling in its internal affairs.
    • The maritime dispute is said to form a crucial part of the diplomatic quarrel between the two countries.

    The disputed area

    • The main point of disagreement between the two neighbours is the direction in which their maritime boundary in the Indian Ocean should extend.
    • According to Somalia, the sea border should be an extension of the same direction in which their land border runs as it approaches the Indian Ocean, i.e. towards the southeast.
    • Kenya, on the other hand, argues that the territorial southeast border should take a 45-degree turn as it reaches the sea, and then run in a latitudinal direction, i.e. parallel to the equator.
    • Such an arrangement would be advantageous for Kenya, whose coastline of 536 km is more than 6 times smaller than Somalia’s (3,333 km).

    Why is this area important?

    • The triangular area thus created by the dispute is around 1.6 lakh sq km large and boasts of rich marine reserves.
    • It is also believed to have oil and gas deposits.
    • Both Somalia and Kenya have accused each other of auctioning off blocks from this area, Al Jazeera reported.

    How have Kenya and Somalia tried to resolve the dispute?

    • After negotiations to resolve the issue bilaterally failed, Somalia in 2014 asked the ICJ to adjudicate.
    • Kenya resisted, arguing that the world court did not have jurisdiction to hear the case.
    • In 2009 both countries had a commitment to settle the dispute out of court.
    • However, in February 2017, the ICJ ruled that it did have the right to rule in the case, and in June 2019 said that it would begin public hearings.
    • These hearings never took place, as Kenya successfully applied to have them postponed thrice– the last one being in June 2020, when it cited difficulties due to the Covid-19.

  • [pib] Mission Sagar-IV

    As part of Mission Sagar-IV, Indian Naval Ship Jalashwa has arrived at Port Anjouan, Comoros to deliver 1,000 Metric Tonnes of rice.

    Mission SAGAR, unlike other missions, can create confusion with the name and its purpose. It is not a military exercise. Make note of such special cases. UPSC can ask such questions as one-liner MCQs.

    Also note the location of the island country Comoros and its geostrategic significance.

    Mission Sagar

    • SAGAR is a term coined by PM Modi in 2015 during his Mauritius visit with a focus on the blue economy.
    • It is a maritime initiative that gives priority to the Indian Ocean region for ensuring peace, stability and prosperity of India in the Indian Ocean region.
    • The goal is to seek a climate of trust and transparency; respect for international maritime rules and norms by all countries; sensitivity to each other`s interests; peaceful resolution of maritime issues; and an increase in maritime cooperation.
    • It is in line with the principles of the Indian Ocean Rim Association.

    Earlier such missions

    • This is the second visit of an Indian Navy ship to the island country within a span of one year.
    • Earlier, as part of Mission Sagar-I, in May-June 2020, the Indian Navy had delivered essential medicines to the nation.
    • Mission Sagar-II was undertaken in May-June 2020, wherein India reached out to Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, Madagascar and Comoros, and provided food aid and medicines.
    • Sagar-III was undertaken in Sihanoukville Port, Cambodia.

  • Biden’s Afghanistan Peace Plan

    The Joe Biden administration has proposed a new peace plan to the Afghan government and the Taliban, seeking to bring violence to a halt and form an interim government.

    What is Biden’s proposal?

    • The US has asked the Afghan President to show “urgent leadership in the coming weeks”.

    The proposal included many elements.

    • It has proposed an UN-led conference of representatives of Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India and the US to discuss a unified approach to support peace in Afghanistan.
    • It urges both sides including the Taliban to reach a consensus on Afghanistan’s future constitutional and governing arrangements.
    • It asks to find a road map to a new “inclusive government”; and agree on the terms of a “permanent and comprehensive ceasefire”.

    Why the US is making this peace push?

    • The US has pointed out that accelerating the peace process is the best way to advance the shared interests of the US and the Afghan government.
    • According to the agreement the U.S. signed with the Taliban in February 2020, American troops – currently some 2,500 troops are in Afghanistan – are set to vacate by May 1.
    • The Taliban and the Afghan government started peace talks in Doha in September last year but reached no breakthrough.
    • The Biden administration is concerned about the slow pace of the talks.

    Why is the US delaying troops withdrawal?

    • The US assessment is that if American troops are pulled out of Afghanistan, the Taliban would make quick gains.
    • So, the Biden administration’s believes that the Taliban are on the ascent.
    • It hopes that the best way to prevent a complete Taliban takeover is a regional peace process and an interim unity government.
    • The Taliban are yet to respond to America’s proposal.

    What is the Afghan government’s stand?

    • The Ghani administration has consistently been critical of the US’s direct outreach to the Taliban.
    • The Trump administration held direct talks with the Taliban, excluding the government.
    • Later, Washington put pressure on Kabul to release Taliban prisoners as part of an agreement it reached with the insurgents.
    • Even when the Doha talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government were underway, Mr Ghani made it clear that he, as elected President, is the only legitimate representative of the Afghan people.
    • He resisted making concessions to the Taliban.

    India’s position in the process

    • Since the Afghan peace process began two years ago, India’s role in it has been peripheral at best.
    • Our EAM has iterated India’s long-held support for an “Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, and Afghan-controlled” peace process.

    What lies ahead

    • While the Afghan government’s opposition to sharing power with the Taliban is well known, it is not clear whether Mr Ghani could continue to resist American pressure.
    • And if the Biden administration decides to stick to the Taliban deal and withdraw troops by May, Mr Ghani would be in a tougher spot.
    • The people of Afghanistan do not have any good options. If Ghani rejects the American offer, the war will continue forever.
    • The Taliban have already taken over much of the country’s hinterlands and are breathing down the neck of its cities.
    • Either way, the Taliban are set to make gains.

  • [pib] Maitri Setu between India and Bangladesh

    PM will inaugurate ‘Maitri Setu’ between India and Bangladesh tomorrow.

    Maitri Setu

    • The bridge ‘Maitri Setu’ has been built over the Feni River which flows between the Indian boundary in Tripura State and Bangladesh.
    • The 1.9 Km long bridge joins Sabroom in India with Ramgarh in Bangladesh.
    • The construction was taken up by the National Highways and Infrastructure Development Corporation Ltd.

    Try this PYQ:

    Q. Recently, which of the following States has explored the possibility of constructing an artificial inland port to be connected to the sea by a long navigational channel?

    (a) Andhra Pradesh

    (b) Chhattisgarh

    (c) Karnataka

    (d) Rajasthan

    Significance of the bridge

    • With this inauguration, Tripura is set to become the ‘Gateway of North East’ with access to Chittagong Port of Bangladesh, which is just 80 kms from Sabroom.
    • The name ‘Maitri Setu’ symbolizes growing bilateral relations and friendly ties between India and Bangladesh.

    About Feni River

    • Feni is a river in southeastern Bangladesh and Tripura.
    • It is a trans-boundary river with an ongoing dispute about water rights.
    • It originates in the South Tripura district and flows through Sabroom town and then enters Bangladesh.
    • The question of sharing the waters of the river between India and Pakistan was first discussed in 1958.

    Other associated projects

    Sabroom Check Post

    • PM will lay the foundation stone for setting up an Integrated Check Post at Sabroom.
    • It will help ease the movement of goods and passengers between the two countries provide new market opportunities for products of North-East states and assist the seamless movement of passengers to and from India and Bangladesh.
    • The project is being taken up by the Land Ports Authority of India.

  • Ceasefire between India and Pakistan.

     

    Why it is different from the past

    • The February ceasefire has triggered widespread speculation about its durability, significance and implication for bilateral relations in general.
    • This agreement is different from the routine ceasefire assurances that the two sides made till January 2021.
    • What makes the February 2021 ceasefire different is its two distinct features:
    • First, this was a joint statement by the two DGsMO.
    • Second, unlike the previous declarations, the recent agreement mentions a specific date, i.e., the night of February 24-25, to begin the ceasefire.
    • The agreement is also path-breaking from a conflict management point of view.
    • The ceasefire is also significant because this helps India to defuse an ugly two-front situation and a feeling of being boxed in by an inimical Pakistan and an aggressive China.

    Historical background of ceasefires with Pakistan

    • The Karachi agreement of 1949, which ended the first war between newly formed India and Pakistan, was the first ceasefire agreement between the two countries that created the India Pakistan boundary in Kashmir called the Ceasefire Line or CFL.
    • The United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) was mandated to monitor the ceasefire along the CFL.
    • Following the India-Pakistan war of 1971, the Suchetgarh Agreement of 1972 delineated the ‘line of control’ in Jammu and Kashmir thereby renaming the CFL as the LoC.
    • The 2003 agreement between the DGsMO, communicated through a telephone call between them, was a reiteration of the December 1971 war termination ceasefire.

    Rules and norms required

    • A ceasefire requires a clearly articulated and mutually-agreed-upon set of rules and norms for effective observance along with an intent to observe them. 
    • The February ceasefire is an expression of such an intent, but without the rules and norms to enforce it.
    • The Simla Agreement or the Suchetgarh Agreement do not have those rules either.
    • The Karachi Agreement, on the other hand, has clearly laid down provisions on how to manage the CFL which, of course, was overtaken by the LoC.
    • Therefore, armed forces deployed on either side of the LoC in Kashmir often have to resort to Karachi Agreement to observe the ceasefire.
    • Now that the two DGsMO have declared a joint ceasefire, the next logical step is to arrive at a set of rules to govern that ceasefire.
    • An unwritten ceasefire, experiences from conflict zones around the world show, tend to break down easily and trigger tensions in other domains.

    Role of back channels

    • What is also significant to note about the ceasefire agreement between the two DGsMO is that this was preceded by weeks.
    • Interestingly, the 2003 ceasefire was also preceded by discreet parleys between the heads of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan and the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) of India.
    • The 2003 CFA led to a sustained period of back channel talks on Kashmir which, by mid 2007, had almost finalised a deal to resolve the Kashmir conflict.
    • Ane key reason why the CFA held at least till 2008 was because there were parallel talks, along with holding fire on the LoC, on other outstanding bilateral issues, principally Kashmir.

    Conclusion

    While whether the 2021 CFA would prompt talks in other areas is unclear as of now, the possibility of piecemeal agreements to create durable stability bilaterally unless followed by progress in other domains remains to be seen.

  • India, Pak, China must build on de-escalation

    Three power, India, Pakistan and China need to take a new look at the factors underlying their relationship with each other. The article deals with this issue.

    Hope for regional politics to turn a new leaf

    • The announcement by India and Pakistan of strict observance of all agreements, understandings and cease firing along the Line of Control is a welcome step.
    • It is premature to conclude what all this will amount to in the long term.
    • But if all three powers, China, Pakistan and India, can draw the appropriate lessons in humility, there is hope for regional politics to turn over a new leaf.

    Lessons for India

    • First, the belligerent use of foreign policy in domestic politics has unintended effects on your international standing.
    • In 2019, the official rhetoric was promising India retaking PoK and putting more military pressure on Pakistan.
    • In contrast, the discourse on foreign policy since the Chinese pressure on the LAC has been one of marked sobriety scaling back all expectations of a flippant militarism.
    • Second, the standoff with China has brought home some stark realities. We can speculate on Chinese motives.
    •  The LAC standoff considerably released the pressure on Pakistan.
    • We were reminded that the LAC and LoC can be linked; that the zone around Kashmir was a trilateral and not a bilateral contest, and that India will need significant resources to deal with China.
    • In the matter of the CAA the talk of evicting Bangladeshis has been starkly checkmated by the need to placate Bangladesh, which is vital to our strategic interests.

    Lessons for Pakistan

    • First, India now has enough weight in the international system that any attempts to internationalise Kashmir are a non-starter.
    • Second, the revocation of Article 370 did not unleash the kinds of fissures and cycle of violence within the Valley that Pakistan might have been hoping to exploit.
    • Third, the pandemic is a great opportunity for Pakistan to recognise that opening up to the South Asian region is in its interest in the long term than acting on the coattails of China.

    Lessons for China

    • India may not have, in a literal sense, restored the status quo ante on the LAC, the fact of the matter is that it has stood up with enough firmness to send the signal that it will not be a pushover.
    • India signalled a resolve that Chinese military and economic hegemony can be resisted.
    • China cannot wish away considerable Indian power.
    • In fact, by concentrating India’s mind on the China challenge, it may have unwittingly done India a favour.

    Way forward

    • So this moment can be a constructive one if everyone understands the one lesson in world politics: There are diminishing returns to belligerence.
    • With Pakistan, India should seize the moment and build on the de-escalation.
    • The pandemic offers an opportunity for greater economic cooperation.
    • Political establishments of both countries will have to think of what is a win-win political narrative they can legitimately offer their citizens.

    Consider the question “If all three powers, China, Pakistan and India, can draw the appropriate lessons in humility, there is hope for regional politics to turn over a new leaf. Comment.“

    Conclusion

    The region will be better off with a humility that tries to align them, rather than a hubris that exults in unilateral triumphalism.