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GS Paper: Population & Associated Issues

  • Challenges and Opportunities of India’s Aging Population

    aging population

    Central Idea

    • Projected Demographic Shift: By 2050, the percentage of elderly individuals in India is expected to double, reaching over 20% of the total population, as per the UN Population Fund, India (UNFPA) in its 2023 India Ageing Report.
    • Rapid Expansion: India is experiencing a remarkable decadal growth rate in its elderly population, currently estimated at 41%.
    • Changing Dynamics: This demographic shift raises the possibility that by 2046, the elderly population may surpass the number of children (aged 0 to 15 years) in the country.

    Economic Disparities among the Elderly

    • Poverty Prevalence: More than 40% of India’s elderly population belongs to the poorest wealth quintile, with nearly 18.7% of them living without any source of income.
    • Quality of Life Impact: Such high levels of poverty can significantly affect their quality of life and their access to healthcare services.

    Understanding the Aging Population

    • Rapid Growth in the 80+ Age Group: The report predicts a staggering 279% growth rate in the population of individuals aged 80 and above between 2022 and 2050.
    • Gender Disparities: There is a predominance of widowed and highly dependent elderly women in this age group, a trend observed in several nations.
    • Regional Variations: Life expectancy at 60 and 80 varies across states and union territories, with women generally having higher life expectancies, raising concerns about their social and economic well-being.
    • Regional Disparities: States like Rajasthan, Haryana, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, and the Union Territory of J&K have women with life expectancies exceeding 20 years at age 60, highlighting the need for tailored support.

    Changing Sex Ratios among the Elderly

    • Steady Increase: The sex ratio (females per 1,000 males) among the elderly has been steadily rising since 1991, in contrast to the stagnation in the general population’s sex ratio.
    • Regional Variations: The northeast and east show an increased sex ratio among the elderly, but it remains below 1,000, indicating a male predominance. In contrast, central India saw a remarkable shift, with women outperforming men in survival after the age of 60.

    Gendered Poverty in Old Age

    • Inherent Gender Bias: Poverty in old age is inherently gendered, with older women more likely to be widowed, living alone, lacking personal income, and relying on family support.
    • Feminization and Ruralization: The major challenges facing India’s aging population include the feminization and ruralization of the elderly. Policies must address these specific needs.

    Inter-State Variations in Elderly Population

    • Diverse Demographic Transition: Significant inter-state variation exists in the levels and growth of the elderly population, reflecting differing stages and rates of demographic transition.
    • Regional Differences: States in the southern and select northern regions have a higher share of the elderly population, a gap expected to widen by 2036. In contrast, states with higher fertility rates, like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, will see an increase in the elderly population share but will remain below the national average.
    • Ageing Index: Central and northeastern regions are characterized by a younger demographic as indicated by the aging index.

    Response to Elderly Needs during the Pandemic

    • Inadequate State Aid: The report reviews the government and state authorities’ response to the needs of elderly people during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting that while most received state aid, it was insufficient.
    • Only NGOs to rescue: Accessible public healthcare facilities were lacking, with NGOs and CBOs being the primary sources of help.
    • Call for Preparedness: The report recommends a special focus on older persons in disaster-preparedness plans moving forward.

    Enhancing Data Collection and Support

    • Data Deficiency: The report underscores the lack of credible data on various issues related to the elderly in India and calls for the inclusion of questions concerning older persons in upcoming data collection exercises.
    • Policy Recommendations: Suggestions include increasing awareness about elderly schemes, regulating Old Age Homes, and promoting in-situ aging.
    • Community Engagement: Encouraging the creation of elderly self-help groups and emphasizing multigenerational households as well as short-term care facilities.

    Promising Roadmap and Valuable Resource

    • Government Acknowledgment: Social Justice Dept. termed the report a “valuable roadmap”. It emphasized its importance as a resource for scholars, policymakers, program managers, and all stakeholders involved in elder care.
    • Data Sources: The report draws from various sources, including the 2011 Census, the 2017-18 Longitudinal Ageing Survey in India (LASI), population projections, and reports from the Government of India and the World Population Projection 2022.

    Way forward

    The report advocates for policies that enhance the well-being of India’s aging population-

    • Foster community support
    • Multigenerational living, and
    • In-situ aging

  • National Youth Policy—Will it help India reap the promised demographic dividend?

    What’s the news?

    • India, with 66 percent of its population below the age of 35, possesses the world’s largest youth population. The National Youth Policy (NYP) aims to provide a comprehensive framework and vision for the development and empowerment of young people, recognizing them as a critical national demographic.

    Central idea

    • As other countries grapple with ageing populations, India’s future growth trajectory depends on how it nurtures and invests in its youth. To address this, the Government of India’s Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports drafted the NYP 2021, envisioning a 10-year vision for youth development by 2030.

    Historical evolution of the National Youth Policy

    1. NYP 1988: The first NYP was drafted in 1988, aimed at addressing youth development issues, but specific details were not provided.
    2. NYP 2003: The NYP was updated in 2003, emphasizing patriotism, morality-oriented values, and gender justice. However, it lacked specific action plans.
    3. NYP 2014: The policy was revised in 2014 with a more focused approach, defining the youth age group as 15-29. It identified objectives and priority action areas but faced criticism for lack of detailed plans.
    4. NYP 2021: The most recent version, drafted in 2021, takes a holistic approach and aligns with the UN SDGs. It covers diverse aspects, but challenges in implementation were noted.

    Significance of the NYP

    • Youth Empowerment: The NYP recognizes the youth as a critical demographic and aims to empower them to actively participate in shaping the nation’s future. By focusing on their development, the policy harnesses the potential of the youth as a dynamic and vibrant force.
    • Vision for Future Growth: Each iteration of the NYP builds upon the previous one, adapting to changing times and needs. The policy’s forward-looking approach helps India prepare its youth for the future, enabling them to contribute to the nation’s growth and development.
    • Alignment with Global Goals: The NYP 2021 aligns with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), reflecting India’s commitment to international development agendas.
    • Holistic Development: The NYP 2021 takes a holistic approach, covering various aspects of youth development, such as education, health, skill development, and social welfare. This comprehensive approach ensures that the youth receive well-rounded support and opportunities
    • Fostering Inclusivity: The policy recognizes the diverse backgrounds and challenges faced by the youth, including socially and economically disadvantaged sections. By focusing on inclusivity, the NYP strives to provide equal opportunities for all young individuals.
    • Policy Evolution: With each iteration, the NYP evolves to address emerging issues and incorporate feedback from previous policies. This continuous improvement ensures that the government’s youth-related initiatives remain relevant and effective.
    • Social Cohesion: By promoting values of unity, integrity, and respect for diverse faiths and cultures, the NYP fosters social cohesion among the youth. This contributes to a harmonious and cohesive society

    Challenges to NYP 2021

    • Reintegration of NEET Youth: The policy rightly focuses on reintegrating NEET youth (not in education, employment, or training). However, it lacks specific timelines or schemes to generate equal job opportunities, especially considering India’s high unemployment rate.
    • Disparity in Access to Opportunities: The assumption of equal access to education, skilling, and employment for all youth overlooks the significant diversity within India’s young population. Many socially and economically disadvantaged youth face enormous challenges in accessing sustainable livelihoods.
    • Structural Barriers in Education: While the policy addresses symptoms like dropouts, it fails to address inherent structural barriers within the education system, such as economic migration, discrimination, and early marriages.
    • Complex Implementation: The policy assumes an ideal scenario with seamless coordination between various ministries, government departments, and non-state stakeholders. However, implementing such a wide-ranging policy will require overcoming significant challenges.

    Way Forward

    • Clear Implementation Roadmap: Develop a detailed and transparent implementation plan with specific timelines and responsibilities assigned to various stakeholders. This plan should address the key objectives and action areas of NYP 2021, ensuring effective execution.
    • Reintegrating NEET Youth: Focus on generating equal job opportunities for NEET youth by collaborating with the private sector and creating employment avenues through government programs.
    • Inclusivity and Access: Design targeted interventions to address the challenges faced by socially and economically disadvantaged youth. Ensure equitable access to education, skilling, and employment opportunities, empowering all sections of the youth population.
    • Tackling Structural Barriers: Implement measures to address underlying issues in the education system that contribute to dropouts. Invest in infrastructure and resources to provide quality education and support students from vulnerable backgrounds.
    • Digital Connectivity and Education: Bridge the digital divide by improving internet access and technology infrastructure, especially in rural and remote areas. Leverage technology for innovative educational delivery to reach youth unable to attend traditional schooling.
    • Strengthen Coordination: Establish robust coordination mechanisms among various ministries, government departments, and non-state stakeholders. Collaborate with NGOs, youth organizations, and the private sector to enhance the impact of NYP 2021.
    • Financial Allocation: Ensure adequate and sustainable funding for youth-centric programs and initiatives. Explore innovative financing models and partnerships to secure necessary resources for effective implementation.

    Conclusion

    • NYP 2021 presents a promising vision for empowering India’s youth and propelling the nation’s growth in the 21st century. Overlooking the existing challenges could hinder the policy’s potential impact on India’s Amrit Peedhi (youth) during the Amrit Kaal (critical era). To ensure a bright future for the nation, India must prioritize the effective execution of NYP 2021 and invest in the holistic development of its youth population.

  • Demographic transition and change in women’s lives

    What is the news?

    • The observance of World Population Day (11 July) provides an opportunity to reflect upon India’s demographic journey and its transformative impact on the lives of its citizens, particularly women. This article presents insights and perspectives on how population growth, fertility decline, and social norms have influenced various aspects of women’s lives in India.

    Central idea

    • From a population of 340 million at Independence to a staggering 1.4 billion today, India has experienced remarkable growth fueled by advancements in public health, diminished starvation, and medical breakthroughs. This demographic transition has had profound implications for Indian women throughout their lives, presenting both positive and negative changes.

    Challenges Faced by Indian Women

    • Son Preference and Gender Bias: Indian society’s preference for sons is reflected in the sex ratio imbalance. The number of girls per 100 boys under the age of five dropped from 96 to 91 between 1950 and 2019. This decline can be attributed to practices such as sex-selective abortion and the neglect of sick daughters, resulting in limited opportunities and discrimination against girls.
    • Early Marriage and Childbearing: The early marriage and childbearing continue to be significant challenges for Indian women. The average age at first birth has remained low, with women born in the 1980s still having a first birth below 22 years of age. Early motherhood limits women’s educational and employment prospects, perpetuating gender inequality.
    • Limited Access to Education: While recent improvements have been made, access to quality education remains limited for many girls and women in India. The article emphasizes that although over 70% of girls enroll in secondary education, early marriage and childbearing restrict their educational opportunities, hindering their skill development and access to better employment prospects.
    • Gender-based Violence and Harassment: There is prevalence of gender-based violence and harassment, including domestic violence, dowry-related violence, and sexual harassment. Such incidents negatively impact women’s physical and psychological well-being, restrict their freedom, and limit their ability to fully participate in society.
    • Limited Economic Opportunities: Gender pay gaps, occupational segregation, and biases in hiring and promotion processes contribute to limited economic opportunities for women in India. The burden of unpaid domestic and caregiving work falls disproportionately on women, hindering their ability to engage in paid employment and achieve economic empowerment.
    • Lack of Social and Financial Support: The widowed or elderly women often lack adequate social and financial support systems. Dependence on male family members, particularly sons, for financial support can perpetuate gender inequality and leave women vulnerable to economic hardships, social isolation, and limited access to healthcare and pension benefits

    Aging women and its implications

    • Increase in Proportion: The proportion of the female population aged 65 and above has risen significantly over the years. Between 1950 and 2022, the proportion of women aged 65 and above increased from 5% to 11% and is projected to reach 21% by 2050.
    • Outliving Husbands: Women tend to marry older men and are more likely to outlive their husbands. As a result, a higher percentage of elderly women are widowed compared to men in the same age group. The 2011 Census shows that while only 18% of men above age 65 are widowed, about 55% of the women are widowed.
    • Financial Challenges: Widowed women often face financial difficulties, as they may lack access to savings, property, and other financial resources. This dependence on their husbands and subsequent reliance on their children, primarily sons, can perpetuate the cycle of son preference.
    • Limited Agency: Widowed women may experience limited decision-making power and agency in their later years. Their dependence on sons for support can restrict their ability to make independent choices and contribute to a sense of social and economic vulnerability.

    Changing Dynamics for Indian Women

    • Difficulty in ensuring the birth of a son: With families having fewer children, the likelihood of not having a son increased. Social norms, patrilocal kinship patterns, and financial insecurity reinforced the preference for sons. This led to practices such as sex-selective abortion and neglect of sick daughters.
    • Decreased years spent on active mothering: As fertility rates declined, women had more time for education and employment. NFHS finds that the number of years women spend caring for children under five declined from 14 years in 1992-93 to eight in 2018-20; the years spent caring for children ages six to 15 dropped from 20 to 14 years.
    • Persistent early marriage and childbearing: While women’s educational attainment increased, with over 70% of girls enrolling in secondary education, early marriage and childbearing remain the predominant forces defining women’s lives. As a recent article by Park, Hathi, Broussard, and Spears documents, the average age at first birth has hardly budged about 20 for women born in the 1940s and still remains well below 22 years for those born in the 1980s.

    What is mean by Gender Dividend?

    • Gender Dividend refers to the concept that societies can achieve greater productivity and equity by investing in women and girls and closing gender gaps, particularly in the labor market.
    • It emphasizes that by realizing the economic potential of women and girls through increased investments and opportunities, societies can become more productive and equitable.

    Strategies to harness the Gender Dividend

    • Education and Skill Development: Promote gender equality in education by ensuring equal access to quality education for girls and women. Encourage girls’ enrollment and retention in schools, address barriers to education, and provide skill development programs that equip women with relevant skills for employment.
    • Economic Empowerment: Create an enabling environment for women’s economic participation by addressing gender disparities in the labor market, promoting entrepreneurship, and ensuring equal pay for equal work. Implement policies and programs that support women’s access to financial resources, credit, and business opportunities.
    • Women’s Leadership and Decision-making: Increase women’s representation and participation in leadership positions across sectors, including politics, business, and public institutions. Encourage women’s involvement in decision-making processes at all levels to ensure their perspectives and voices are heard.
    • Legal Reforms and Gender Equality: Enact and enforce laws that protect women’s rights and promote gender equality. Address discriminatory practices, such as early marriage, dowry, and violence against women. Strengthen the implementation of existing laws to ensure justice and protection for women.
    • Health and Well-being: Improve women’s access to healthcare services, including reproductive healthcare, maternal health, and preventive care. Address specific health issues affecting women, such as gender-based violence, reproductive health concerns, and mental health.
    • Social Support and Safety: Establish social support systems that provide safety nets for women, particularly vulnerable groups such as widows, elderly women, and single mothers. Create awareness campaigns to challenge social norms and attitudes that perpetuate gender inequality and violence against women.
    • Engaging Men and Boys: Engage men and boys as allies in promoting gender equality and challenging harmful gender norms. Encourage men’s involvement in caregiving, domestic responsibilities, and advocating for women’s rights.
    • Data Collection and Monitoring: Collect sex-disaggregated data and conduct gender analysis to identify gaps, monitor progress, and inform evidence-based policymaking. Regularly evaluate and measure the impact of gender equality initiatives to ensure accountability and guide future interventions.

    Strategies for enhancing childcare access

    • Utilize National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS): Consider making staffing crèches an acceptable form of work under NREGS. This would involve using NREGS workers to help staff childcare centers, thereby expanding access to affordable childcare services.
    • Leverage the Self-Help Group Movement: Harness the self-help group movement to establish neighborhood childcare centers in urban and rural areas. This can involve utilizing the network and resources of self-help groups to set up and manage childcare facilities.
    • Expand Anganwadis: Increase the reach and scope of Anganwadis, which are government-funded centers providing integrated childcare and early education services. Expand their capacity and include provisions for crèche services to accommodate working parents.
    • National Rural Livelihood Mission (NRLM): Integrate childcare services within the NRLM framework, which aims to enhance the livelihoods of rural households. This can involve incorporating childcare as part of the skill development and income-generation activities supported by NRLM.
    • Financial Support for Childcare: Explore the implementation of subsidy programs or financial assistance schemes to make childcare more affordable for low-income families. This could include income-based subsidies, vouchers, or tax credits to alleviate the financial burden of childcare expenses.
    • Neighbourhood Childcare Centers: Encourage the establishment of neighborhood-based childcare centers, particularly in urban areas, to cater to the local community’s childcare needs. This approach ensures proximity and accessibility for parents, making it easier for them to balance work and childcare responsibilities.
    • Recognition of Childcare as Work: Recognize the valuable work of childcare providers and promote the professionalization of the childcare sector. This can include offering training programs, certification, and support systems to improve the quality of care provided by childcare professionals

    Conclusion

    • Realizing India’s demographic dividend requires fully harnessing the gender dividend by empowering women throughout their lives. Access to childcare plays a pivotal role in facilitating women’s labor force participation. Efforts to improve childcare access should be combined with strategies to challenge patriarchal norms and create an enabling environment for women’s education, employment, and asset ownership. By embracing these measures, India can empower its women and achieve inclusive and sustainable development.

    Also read:

    Women’s Political Representation in India: Moving Beyond Tokenism

  • Aspirational Cities Programme (ACP): A Step in the Right Direction

    ACP

    Central Idea

    • Maharashtra’s Aspirational Cities Programme (ACP) aims to address the challenges of rapid urbanisation by adopting a holistic approach to urban governance. The ACP is set to focus on improved governance, address persistent civic issues, and increase funding avenues for the urban local bodies. The success of the ACP could have a significant impact on Maharashtra’s economy and lead to ease of living in urban areas.

    Urban population of India

    • According to the Census of India 2011, the urban population of India was 377 million, which accounted for 31.16% of the total population. Around 590 million people would live in the cities by 2030.
    • While cities constitute about 3 per cent of the land in the country, they generate 70 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and contribute substantially to economic growth and opportunities.
    • There is a robust relationship between the index of cities’ liveability and the country’s GDP per capita suggesting that long-term growth is only feasible if the city attributes in terms of providing equitable access to basic services, residences, and improved economic management are woven seamlessly through digital service delivery platforms.

    Challenges of urbanization in Maharashtra

    • Deficient Infrastructure: Maharashtra’s cities are grappling with issues of deficient infrastructure, such as inadequate roads, public transport, water supply, and waste management systems.
    • Air Pollution: Urbanization has led to an increase in air pollution in Maharashtra’s cities, primarily due to vehicular emissions and industrial activities.
    • Social Inequities: The growth of informal settlements and slums in Maharashtra’s cities has led to social inequities, with the urban poor lacking access to basic services, such as healthcare, education, and housing.
    • Mobility and Migration: Maharashtra’s cities continue to face the challenge of frequent mobility and migration, with an inward net movement of people for better livelihood opportunities.
    • Vulnerabilities to Disasters and Climate Change: Rapid urbanization has increased the vulnerability of Maharashtra’s cities to disasters and climate change, such as floods and heatwaves.
    • Poor Urban Planning: Many of the challenges faced by Maharashtra’s cities are a result of poor urban planning, with a lack of coordination between various government departments and inadequate implementation of policies and programmes.

    What is Aspirational Cities Programme (ACP)?

    • The Aspirational Cities Programme (ACP) is an initiative of the Government of Maharashtra aimed at addressing the challenges of rapid urbanization in the state by adopting a holistic approach to urban governance.
    • The ACP has identified 57 cities that have been proposed for the programme. Service level benchmarking will be done for the cities based on the data collected on the Performance Assessment System of the Government of Maharashtra.
    • The performance of the 57 selected cities would be monitored and ranked quarterly through a standard digital monitoring platform with indicators on the themes of urban infrastructure, education, urban services, skill development, and climate change.
    • The ACP is based on three priority areas: inclusive urban development, scientific data methods for assessing and monitoring outcomes, and citizen participation in civic affairs.

    ACP

    The Maharashtra government’s Aspirational Cities Programme (ACP) focuses on three priority areas

    1. Inclusive Urban Development: The ACP aims to bring an integrated approach to urban programming that involves all development sectors. This is aimed at ensuring that the benefits of urban development reach all sections of society, including the most vulnerable.
    2. Scientific Data Methods: The ACP seeks to adopt scientific data methods for assessing and monitoring the outcomes of both state and central schemes. This will provide a better understanding of the impact of various policies and programmes on the ground.
    3. Citizen Participation: The ACP aims to enhance the voice and participation of citizens in civic affairs through physical and digital means. This is aimed at ensuring that governance is citizen-centric and responsive to the needs and aspirations of the people.

    Other key features of Maharashtra’s ACP

    • Improved Governance: The ACP is set to focus on improved governance, address persistent civic issues, and increase funding avenues for the urban local bodies. This is aimed at ensuring that the governance of cities is efficient, transparent, and accountable.
    • Service Level Benchmarking: Service level benchmarking will be done for the cities based on the data collected on the Performance Assessment System of the Government of Maharashtra. This will enable the state government to monitor and rank the performance of the 57 selected cities quarterly through a standard digital monitoring platform.
    • Provision of Adequate Potable Tap Water: The ACP agenda includes provisioning adequate potable tap water to all households by taking advantage of the ambitious Jal Jeevan Mission.
    • Reformed Property Tax: The ACP aims to reform property tax by delinking it from the reasonable rental value method and adopting the market value of the property as a base for assessment.

    Facts for prelims

    What is Urban 20 (U20)?

    • Within the G20 ecosystem, a city diplomacy initiative called the Urban 20 (U20) was launched in December 2017.
    • As one of the formal Engagement Groups under G20, the U20 forum was meant to collectively raise critical urban issues of G20 cities during the G20 negotiations.
    • Despite U20’s concerted efforts to run parallel to G20, the absence of any written constitution, procedures, or formal agreement has made U20 unable to effectively address the aspirations and concerns of cities.

    Conclusion

    • It is time to accept the reality that New India is moving from its villages to the cities, and therefore, the need for renewed thinking and policies that are citizen-centric. The ACP is an example of a policy that puts people first as part of urban development. This effort by the Government of Maharashtra is strategically contextualised with the Viksit Bharat vision for India in 2047.

    Mains Question

    Q. New India is moving from its villages to the cities which highlights the need for renewed thinking and policies that are citizen-centric. In light of this discuss how Maharashtra’s Aspirational Cities Programme (ACP) could help to address the challenges of urbanization

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    Also Read:

    [Sansad TV] Perspective: Urban Planning

     

  • India’s Population Growth: Dividend or a Disaster?

    growth

    Central Idea

    • India’s projected transition as the most populous country from China by mid-2023 presents opportunities for demographic advantage, but also requires focusing on the available demographic dividend. The population growth, size, and composition must be viewed from an empirical and scientific perspective to understand whether it is a dividend or a disaster.

    growth

    India’s Population Projection

    • A UN report released on recently has provided the first official confirmation that India’s population is expected to surpass that of China by the middle of this year at the latest.
    • The annual State of World Population report by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) has pegged India’s mid-2023 population at 142.86 crore, marginally ahead of China’s 142.57 crore, which is 2.9 million higher than China’s population

    What is State of World Population Report?

    • The report is an annual report published by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), which provides a global overview of population trends and issues.
    • The report covers a wide range of topics related to the population, such as fertility, mortality, migration, family planning, and gender equality.
    • It also includes analysis and recommendations for policymakers and governments to address population challenges and promote sustainable development.
    • The report is widely regarded as a key reference for researchers, policymakers, and international organizations working on population and development issues.

    growth

    How India’s Population growth can be a resource?

    • A larger workforce: A growing population means a larger workforce, which, if trained and employed, can contribute to economic growth and development.
    • Domestic market: A larger population can create a larger domestic market, which can drive economic growth by increasing demand for goods and services.
    • Innovation and technological advancements: A larger population can provide a greater pool of knowledge and expertise, and a more diverse range of perspectives and ideas, which can lead to innovation and technological advancements.
    • Investment in infrastructure: Population growth can create opportunities for investment in infrastructure, education, and health, which can further stimulate economic development.
    • Cultural richness: A larger population can lead to cultural richness and diversity. With a diverse population comes a range of languages, traditions, and cultural practices, which can contribute to a vibrant and dynamic society.
    • Diplomatic influence: A larger population can give a country greater diplomatic influence on the world stage. As one of the world’s most populous countries, India has significant diplomatic influence and can use its demographic size as a bargaining tool in international negotiations.

    How India’s Population growth can be a Burden?

    • Strain on resources: A growing population can put a strain on natural resources, such as water, food, and energy. This can lead to environmental degradation, scarcity, and conflict.
    • Unemployment: A larger population can create a mismatch between the supply and demand of jobs, leading to high unemployment rates, particularly among young people
    • Poverty: Population growth can exacerbate poverty, particularly in rural areas and among marginalized communities. This can create social and economic inequality and limit access to education, healthcare, and other basic needs.
    • Overcrowding: A larger population can lead to overcrowding, particularly in urban areas. This can create poor living conditions, increased pollution, and health hazards.
    • Infrastructure: A growing population can put a strain on infrastructure, such as transportation, housing, and sanitation. This can lead to inadequate services and poor living conditions.
    • Health: A larger population can increase the spread of disease and illness, particularly in areas with poor healthcare infrastructure. This can lead to public health crises and decreased life expectancy.
    • Education: Population growth can put a strain on education systems, particularly in terms of providing quality education to all. This can limit social and economic mobility and contribute to inequality.
    • Migration: A larger population can lead to migration, particularly to urban areas, which can create social and economic challenges, such as increased crime rates and inequality.

    Deeper outlook: Trends of population growth, size and composition

    • Replacement level fertility: With total fertility rate of 2.0 in 2023, India is already at replacement level fertility, meaning two children replacing their parents. This indicates that the population is on a path toward stabilisation.
    • Negative growth: India continues to experience positive growth, but in a decelerated mode until 2064, from which point it will become negative growth. The peak of India’s population size will be around 169.6 crore in 2063.
    • Working age population: Looking at the population composition of India, there are greater prospects for demographic dividend than a disaster. With 68% of the working age population in 2023, the country continues to have a demographic window of opportunity for the next 35 years to reap an economic dividend

    Facts for prelims

    Fertility Decline

    • According to National Family Health Survey (NFHS), fertility rate falling below the replacement level for the first time to 2.0 in 2021.dropped from 2.2 to 2.0.
    • Only five States have a fertility rate above the replacement rate: Bihar (3), Meghalaya (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.4), Jharkhand (2.3), and Manipur (2.2)
    • At the time of Independence, India’s fertility rate was six per woman, and it had taken 25 years to reach five, with the government launching the first ever family planning program in the world in 1952.
    • India’s fertility further declined to four in the 1990s when Kerala became the first State in India to have a fertility rate below replacement l
    • Increased use of contraception, more years of average schooling, better health care, and an increase in the mean marriage age of women are of the reasons behind the steady dip in fertility rate.

    growth

    Mechanism to translate a demographic bonus to economic dividend

    • There are four key mechanisms that translate a demographic bonus to economic dividend:
    • Employment, 2. Education and skills, 3. Health conditions, and 4. Governance.
    • Job creation, education, skills generation, and ensuring a healthy lifespan are important channels that translate demographic opportunity into economic gains.
    • Good governance, reflected through conscientious policies, is another essential aspect for reaping demographic dividend.

    Way ahead: India’s Demographic opportunity

    • India’s relatively younger population provides higher support ratios, with lesser disease, disability, and caring burden.
    • India has the potential to become a worldwide market for both production and consumption, with lower manufacturing costs due to a relatively cheaper workforce.
    • Available demographic opportunity in the form of a greater share of the working age population has the potential to boost per capita GDP by an additional 43% by 2061.
    • However, a total fertility rate of less than 1.8 may not be economically beneficial for India, and population control methods run the risk of inducing forced population aging.

    Conclusion

    • While India’s demographic transition presents opportunities for demographic advantage, it must focus on reaping the available demographic dividend. The composition of India’s population presents prospects for demographic dividends, but certain mechanisms must be employed to translate demographic opportunity into economic gains. Policies that support an enabling environment that can provide high-quality education, good healthcare, respectable employment opportunities, good infrastructure, and gender empowerment are essential.

    Mains Question

    Q. India is set to surpass China as the most populous country in the mid 2023. This presents India an opportunity and a challenge of population growth. Analyze and suggest a way ahead to harness the potential of its working age population.

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  • India’s population to edge ahead of China’s by mid-2023: UN

    population

    Central idea: India is set to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by mid-2023, according to data released by the United Nations.

    State of World Population Report

    • The report is an annual report published by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), which provides a global overview of population trends and issues.
    • The report covers a wide range of topics related to the population, such as fertility, mortality, migration, family planning, and gender equality.
    • It also includes analysis and recommendations for policymakers and governments to address population challenges and promote sustainable development.
    • The report is widely regarded as a key reference for researchers, policymakers, and international organizations working on population and development issues.

    population

    Highlights of the 2023 report

    Facts

    Data
    World Population (2022) 8 billion
    Most populous regions Eastern and Southeastern Asia, Central and Southern Asia
    World Population Growth Rate (since 2020) Less than 1%
    Fertility Rate (replacement level) 2.1 children per woman
    Population aged 65 years or above (2050) 16%
    Persons aged 65 years and above (2050) More than double that of 5-year-olds and same as 12-year-olds
    Regions with fertility rate at or below 2.1 60%
    Top countries accounting for global population increase by 2050 DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Tanzania

     

    Population anxieties in India

    Facts
    India’s population India is now the most populous country in the world, having overtaken China in population, with 1,428.6 million people.
    Age distribution 68% of India’s population belongs to the 15-64 years category, and 26% in the 10-24 years group, making India one of the youngest countries in the world.
    Fertility rate National Family Health 5 Survey (2019-21) found that India attained a Total Fertility Rate of 2.0 for the first time, less than the replacement level of 2.1, falling from 2.2 in NFHS 4 (2015-16).
    Life expectancy Life expectancy for men in India is 71 years, the same as the global life expectancy, while it is marginally lower for women at 74 years.
    Population growth India’s population growth rate has decreased from 2.3% in 1972 to less than 1% now.
    Demographic dividend With 68% of its population as youth, and working population, India could have one of the largest workforces in the world, giving it a global advantage.

     

    Way forward

    The UNFPA report strongly recommended that governments introduce policies with gender equality and rights at their heart to address changing demographics. These recommendations include:

    • Parental leave programs: Introducing parental leave programs that provide paid leave to both mothers and fathers after the birth or adoption of a child. This can help promote gender equality in the workplace and support families in raising children.
    • Child tax credits: Providing tax credits or financial support to families with children to help them meet the costs of raising children. This can help address child poverty and support families in providing for their children’s basic needs.
    • Policies to promote gender equality at workplace: Implementing policies and practices that promote gender equality in the workplace, such as equal pay for equal work, flexible work arrangements, and anti-discrimination policies.
    • Universal access to sexual and reproductive health and rights: Ensuring that all people have access to comprehensive sexual and reproductive health services, including family planning, maternal health services, etc. This can help prevent unintended pregnancies, reduce maternal mortality, and promote the health and well-being of individuals and families.

     

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  • Census: A prerequisite for economic development

    Census

    Context

    • India aspires to be a $10 trillion economy by 2035. To achieve this, conducting population Census, due in 2021 but postponed indefinitely because of Covid, is necessary. Such data is essential for planning at the village or block level to usher in economic and social development, ensure better governance, and increase the transparency of public schemes and programmes.

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    What is a census?

    • It is nothing but a process of collecting, compiling, analysing, evaluating, publishing and disseminating statistical data regarding the population.
    • It covers demographic, social and economic data and is provided as of a particular date.

    Census

    What is the purpose?

    • To collect the information for planning and formulation policies for Central and the State Governments.
    • The census tells us who we are and where we are going as a nation.
    • It helps the government decide how to distribute funds and assistance to states and localities.
    • The census data is widely used by National and International Agencies, scholars, business people, industrialists, and many more.

    Why conducting a Census has become a prerequisite for economic development?

    • Lack of complete civil registration system: Since many states (and districts) lack a complete civil registration system with a full count of birth and death data, demographers face enormous challenges in providing population counts at the district level. In several instances, estimates tend to be far off the mark, especially for newly formed districts and states.
    • Changing pattern of migration: migration data collected in the Census has great implications for economic activities and social harmony. As India progresses economically, the pattern of migration has been changing in unprecedented ways. The migration pattern in India in the present decade is very different from what the data in Census 2001 and 2011 suggest. Hence, in the absence of updated data, it is difficult to draw conclusions about migration in India.
    • Other surveys does not provide comprehensive data: The Census counts everyone across regions, classes, creeds, religions, languages, castes, marital status, differently-abled populations, occupation patterns etc. Most national-level surveys such as NFHS and NSSO do not have representative data at the population subgroup level, unlike the former. The existence of numerous faiths and languages as well as the expansion or extinction of such communities will be known only via population Census.

    Census

    In the absence of it how demographers collect data?

    • Estimates using past census information: In the absence of updated data, demographers estimate the annual population count at the district level using past Census information for the intercensal or postcensal period. Say, to estimate the population of a district in India in the year 2015, they use the district-level population growth rate between the 2001 and 2011 Census.
    • Such estimates are fair for maximum of 10 years: Such demographic exercises give reasonably fair estimates when the year of population estimation is within the range of a maximum of 10 years. Beyond this period, estimations can be erroneous, particularly at the district level due to dynamic patterns of population components, among them fertility, mortality and migration.
    • Assumptions based model in faster demographic transition: Many districts of India are experiencing a faster demographic transition with varying fertility and mortality rates. So, using the growth rate of 2001-2011 for the period after 2021 becomes more of an assumption-based model than a model that reflects empirical reality. Covid-19 further makes the situation complex as it impacts the fertility and mortality situation in the country.

    Demand for caste census in India

    • India’s population has since increased three-fold to 1.21 billion in 2011.
    • Experts believe the economic status of the dominant OBC castes have improved in the past 80 years and certain castes have not benefited as much.
    • So, the new caste census is required to measure the economic and social well-being of all castes.

    Census

    History and a Way ahead

    • India has a long history of conducting Census without interruption from 1881 with the rare exception of Assam in 1981 and Jammu Kashmir in 1991 due to socio-political unrest and secessionist movements.
    • Conducting it regular at the national and sub-national levels has been a matter of pride for India.
    • It has to be continued until India achieves a fool-proof civil registration system and a dynamic National Population Register.

    Conclusion

    • Conducting the population Census is a mammoth task, of course. Full involvement of the government system is necessary to organise it. But the it is necessary since it forms the basis of all the plans and programmes that the government wants to implement. Postponing the it has immediate and long-term negative consequences for India. The government and other stakeholders should take urgent steps to conduct the Census as early as possible.

    Mains question

    Q. What is census? Why conducting a Census has become a prerequisite for economic development and also discuss the impact of delayed census.

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  • Need to expand the food safety net

    food

    Context

    • The National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013, through the Public Distribution System (PDS), provides a crucial safety net for roughly 800 million people. Even critics of the PDS appreciated its services during the COVID-19 lockdown.

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    Background: COVID-19 lockdown and policy gaps in ensuring food security

    • Too many still excluded from the PDS: The humanitarian crisis resulting from the COVID-19 lockdown, made it apparent that too many were still excluded from the PDS.
    • Governments decision: In response to the humanitarian crisis, the Government made one sensible policy decision swiftly. It doubled the entitlements of the 800 million who were already covered by the PDS (from five kilograms per person per month, to 10kg). But that does nothing for those without ration cards.

    National food security Act (NFSA)

    • Aims to provide subsidized food grains: The NFS Act, 2013 aims to provide subsidized food grains to approximately two-thirds of India’s 1.2 billion people.
    • Legal entitlements for existing food security programs: It was signed into law on 12 September 2013, retroactive to 5 July 2013. It converts into legal entitlements for existing food security programmes of the GoI.
    • Integrating various government schemes: It includes the Midday Meal Scheme, Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) scheme and the Public Distribution System (PDS). The Midday Meal Scheme and the ICDS are universal in nature whereas the PDS will reach about wo-thirds of the population (75% in rural areas and 50% in urban areas).
    • It recognizes maternity entitlement: Pregnant women, lactating mothers, and certain categories of children are eligible for daily free cereals.
    • Key provisions: The NFSA provides a legal right to persons belonging to “eligible households” to receive foodgrains at a subsidised price. It includes rice at Rs 3/kg, wheat at Rs 2/kg and coarse grain at Rs 1/kg under the Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS). These are called central issue prices (CIPs).

    How Public Distribution System (PDS) is determined?

    • PDS coverage is determined by Section 3(2) of the NFSA 2013.
    • It states that the entitlements of eligible households “shall extend up to seventy-five per cent of the rural population and up to fifty per cent of the urban population.”
    • Section 9 of NFSA required that the total number of persons to be covered “shall be calculated on the basis of the population estimates as per the census of which the relevant figures have been published.”

    food

    What are the exclusion problems?

    • Coverage ratio is too low: The exclusion problem could be because the NFSA coverage ratios were too low to start with, or due to the ‘freeze’ in coverage in absolute terms (around 800 million).
    • Population increase has not been accounted: Between the last Census in 2011 and today, population increase has not been accounted for in determining the number of ration cards. No one could have anticipated that the 2021 Census would be postponed indefinitely. This means that even a decadal update has not happened.
    • Lack of sensitivity to understand the problem: There is no attempt at understanding or addressing the hardships of people who are deprived of the food security net that the PDS provides.
    • Court’s observation and a suggestion: Government inaction led to the matter being taken to the Supreme Court of India in the Problems and Miseries of Migrant Labourers case. The Court agreed that the prayer to increase coverage “seems to be genuine and justified”. It directed the Union of India to “come out with a formula and/or appropriate policy/scheme, if any, so that the benefits under NFSA are not restricted as per the census of 2011 and more and more needy persons/citizens get the benefit under the National Food Security Act”. Going further, the Court said that the Government could consider “projection of population increase” to resolve this issue.
    • Burdening the states: In its response, the Government attempts repeatedly to shift the blame to State governments. But States are responsible for identifying people for PDS ration cards, once they are given the numbers to be covered by the central government.

    Way ahead

    • Several State governments have used their own resources this includes poor States such as Chhattisgarh and Odisha to expand coverage beyond the centrally determined quotas.
    • Robust procurement trends and a comfortable food stocks position are what make an expansion affordable.
    • Adjusting for population increase, as directed by the Supreme Court, will increase coverage by roughly 10% (from 800 million to 900 million).
    • Any sensible policy should have an in-built mechanism for updating coverage annually to account for population increase.

    Conclusion

    • Instead of allowing the Government to delay this any further (the matter has been in Court since 2020), the Supreme Court should be firm, directing the Government to get on with apportioning the additional coverage of roughly 100 million across States, so that the States can start identifying new ration card beneficiaries.

    Mains Question

    Q. What is food security? What is National food security Act? There is number some problems for expanding food security net through PDS. Analyse and suggest way forward.

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  • The depopulation alert

    depopulation

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    Context

    • Recently, when the world population touched eight billion, several headlines focused on how India was the largest contributor to the last billion and is set to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation by 2023. But missing in this conversation is the real threat of depopulation that parts of India too face, and the country’s complete lack of preparedness to deal with it.

    Note: “The population and Population decline are continuously in the headlines which makes the population and associated topics important for the upcoming Mains Examinations.”

    India’s Population trend

    • The total population of India currently stands at 1.37 billion which is 17.5% of the world population.
    • Between 1992 and 2015, India’s Total fertility rate (TFR) had fallen by 35% from 3.4 to 2.2.
    • Young people (15-29 age years) form 27.2% of the population in 2021. This made India enter the Demographic dividend stage.
    • The percentage of the elderly population has been increasing from 6.8% in 1991 to 9.2% in 2016.

    What is depopulation?

    • The depopulation decline (also sometimes called population decline, underpopulation, or population collapse) in humans is a reduction in a human population size.
    • Over the long term, stretching from prehistory to the present, Earth’s total human population has continued to grow; however, current projections suggest that this long-term trend of steady population growth may be coming to an end.

    depopulation

    The depopulation discussion and the missing links

    • Falling fertility rate and discussing reversal: Demographers, policy experts and politicians in countries such as Japan, South Korea and Europe, which are experiencing falling fertility and nearing the inflection point of population declines, are beginning to talk about what the future holds and whether reversal is possible.
    • The missing key elements in the conversation: Talking about equitable sharing of housework; access to subsidized childcare that allows women to have families as well as a career; and lowered barriers to immigration to enable entry to working-age people from countries which aren’t yet in population decline is missing.

    Fertility in India

    • Falling fertility rate: It is now well-established that fertility in India is falling along expected lines as a direct result of rising incomes and greater female access to health and education. India’s total fertility rate is now below the replacement rate of fertility.
    • Many states are on the verge of population decline: Parts of India have not only achieved replacement fertility, but have been below the replacement rate for so long that they are at the cusp of real declines in population. Kerala, which achieved replacement fertility in 1998, and Tamil Nadu, which achieved this in 2000, are examples.
    • Decline in working age population: In the next four years, both Tamil Nadu and Kerala will see the first absolute declines in their working-age populations in their histories. With falling mortality (barring the pandemic), the total population of these States will continue to grow for the next few decades, which means that fewer working-age people must support more elderly people than ever before.

    What is Replacement Level Fertility (RLF)?

    • Replacement level fertility is the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next.
    • In simpler terms, it denotes the fertility number required to maintain the same population number of a country over a given period of time.
    • In developed countries, replacement level fertility can be taken as requiring an average of 2.1 children per woman.
    • In countries with high infant and child mortality rates, however, the average number of births may need to be much higher.
    • RLF will lead to zero population growth only if mortality rates remain constant and migration has no effect.

    A depopulating future and the challenges

    • Invisible trend because infuse of migrants: Access to working-age persons notably different from the situation in other States with low fertility. For instance, Delhi and Karnataka which are both net recipients of migrants, and will not confront population decline in the near future.
    • A skewed sex ratio remains a danger: As the latest round of the NFHS showed, families with at least one son are less likely to want more children than families with just one daughter.
    • Difference in education: The stark differences between northern and southern States in terms of basic literacy as well as enrolment in higher education, including in technical fields, will mean that workers from the southern States are not automatically replaceable.

    Conclusion

    • With decades of focus on lowering fertility, the conversation in India is stuck in a rut. It is for the southern States to break away from this outmoded, data-free rhetoric and join the global conversation on depopulation. India’s cannot ignore the depopulation in the name of migration to meet its current labour needs.

    Mains question

    Q. What is depopulation, which has been a hot topic in recent times? Where do you see India in global population trends? Discuss.

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  • Birth Certificate to be made mandatory for jobs, driving licence, passport, voting right

    The Central government proposes to make birth certificates a mandatory document for almost every sphere of life — admission in educational institutions, inclusion in the voter list, appointment in Central and State government jobs, issue of driving licence and passport.

    Why in news?

    • These changes are proposed in the draft Bill to amend the Registration of Birth and Death (RBD) Act, 1969.

    Registration of Births and Deaths Act (RBD), 1969

    • The registration of births, deaths and stillbirths are compulsory under the provisions of RBD Act in all parts of the Country.
    • The normal period of 21 days (from the date of occurrence) has been prescribed for reporting the birth, death and stillbirth events.
    • Registration of birth and death is already compulsory under the RBD Act, 1969 and violating it is a punishable offence.

    Why need amendment?

    • The database may be used to update the Population Register and the electoral register, and Aadhaar, ration card, passport and driving licence databases after the amendment.
    • Presently, the registration of births and deaths is done by the local registrar appointed by States.

    What are the proposed amendments?

    Ans. Unified Database of Birth and Death

    • It is proposed that the Chief Registrar (appointed by the States) would maintain a unified database at the State level.
    • It would then integrate it with the data at the “national level,” maintained by the Registrar General of India (RGI).
    • The amendments will imply that the Centre will be a parallel repository of data.
    • It shall be mandatory for hospitals and medical institutions to provide a copy of all death certificates, stating the cause of death, to the local registrar apart from the relative of the deceased.

    Significance of the database

    • It would help update:
    1. Population Register prepared under the Citizenship Act, 1955;
    2. Electoral registers or electoral rolls prepared under the Representation of the People Act, 1951
    3. Aadhaar database prepared under the Aadhaar Act, 2016;
    4. Ration card database prepared under the National Food Security Act, 2013;
    5. Passport database prepared under the Passport Act; and
    6. Driving licence database under the Motor Vehicles (Amendment) Act, 2019, and
    7. Other databases at the national level are subject to provisons of Section 17 (1) of the RBD Act, 1969

    What are the newly proposed changes?

    • The centrally-stored birth/death data will be updated in real-time without any human interface required.
    • This would lead to addition and deletion from the electoral roll when an individual turns 18, and after death, respectively.

    Why such move?

    • The government intends to improve compliance by making the registration mandatory to avail basic services such as admission in schools and registration of marriages.
    • Provisions exist for compulsory registration of births and deaths but after the law is amended, it will be

     

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