💥Join UPSC 2027,2028 Mentorship (August Batch) + XFactor Notes & Microthemes PDF
Talk to Mentor

Civilsdaily

Login

Type: Op-ed

  • Managing the fiscal shock of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

    Context

    The Union Budget 2022-23 received a great deal of attention even before the financial year began due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the consequent rise in inflation. There has been considerable speculation on whether the fiscal targets will be altered due to the evolving conditions.

    Estimate of GDP

    •  The critical estimate of GDP growth assumed for this year has certainly changed, with the RBI also adjusting its earlier forecast.
    • However, the budget was conservative to begin with, assuming an 11.1 per cent growth estimate on which its revenue collection targets were based.
    • Given that real GDP growth has been scaled down by the RBI to 7.2 per cent, and as inflation has gone up, on balance, the 11.1 per cent assumption looks tenable.
    • Hence, inflation has been a positive for the government in this respect.

    Tax collection

    • Another positive that emerged last year was that overall tax collections were even more buoyant than expected.
    • From the budgeted figure of Rs 22.17 lakh crore, the revised estimates raised the target to Rs 25.16 lakh crore.
    • In comparison, actual collections have turned out to be even higher at Rs 27.07 lakh crore.
    • If this buoyancy is maintained, then the government can expect the 2022-23 target of Rs 27.57 lakh crore to be exceeded by around Rs 2.5 lakh crore (of this, around 30 per cent will go to the states).
    • This additional revenue would ideally flow from enhanced GST collections, corporate tax, and customs.
    • Central to GST collections increasing is private consumption.
    • Today, high inflation erodes the purchasing power of households, which will divert a larger portion of their incomes for necessities that have become expensive.
    • Therefore, there will be uncertainty here. 
    • Corporates did well last year as they did manage to pass on higher input costs to the consumers, especially in the second half of the year.
    • Can they do it for the second time is the question.
    • High growth in trade volumes led to the government raking in higher customs collections. W
    • ith global growth set to slow down in 2022, a similar flow is unlikely.

    Excise collection and challenges

    • The government will be watchful of excise collections as it is possible that rising fuel prices will lead to lower consumption.
    • Also, in case crude oil continues on the current path and remains in the region of $100-120/barrel, a call may have to be taken by the government on the excise duty: Once the prices of diesel and petrol remain at a new threshold, there will be a tendency for freight rates to be increased permanently.
    • This will have a secondary impact on inflation. 

    Disinvestment challenges

    • On the revenue side, the LIC disinvestment that was to happen last year will materialise this year.
    • The disinvestment has been pushed through for May, but would be of a much lower amount (around Rs 21,000 crore) than envisaged earlier.
    • It will be interesting to see if this would be a part of the Rs 65,000 crore target for this year.

    Uncertainty on the expenditure side

    • The biggest concern will be the fertiliser subsidy, which has been a volatile expenditure item.
    • Higher prices of natural gas have meant that fertilisers have been more expensive and so, the budgeted amount of Rs 1.05 lakh crore will have to be revisited.
    • With inflation already high and agriculture expected to be the bright spot again, the government cannot risk ignoring the subsidy element on fertilisers because there can be an impact on farm product prices.
    • The food subsidy will also need to be examined.
    • The present rise in food prices globally has meant that there is a good global market, especially for wheat.
    • Exports for wheat and maize might rise but can distort the procurement process.

    Interest rate and its implications for borrowing

    • The budget had assumed that interest rates would be stable.
    • However, conditions have changed quite quickly with bond yields moving up by almost 50 bps for the 10-year G-secs.
    • This will mean that the entire Rs 15.95 lakh crore of gross borrowing will have to be carried out at a higher cost.
    • This can result in an additional Rs 8,000 crore of interest if the 50 basis points increase holds through the year. There could be an upward bias if rates go up further.

    Conclusion

    The longer the conflict continues the greater will be the impact. While the government has adeptly managed the fiscal numbers in the last couple of years, this year will be particularly challenging considering the nature of the shock.

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • The post-pandemic world needs better public schools

    Context

    The pandemic has thrown a harsh light on the vulnerabilities and challenges faced by the world in education. There is an immense learning gap due to existing inequalities.

    Need for investment in learning systems

    • In India, we have to accept that unless we mobilise learning resources and institutions at the government level, the divides will continue to expand and learners will continue to fall between the cracks.
    • Systems have to be put into place to find a variety of methods to equip all learners — privileged, poor, middle-class and alternatively-abled.
    •  The challenge is about returning to school.
    • In wealthier nations, schools have always been the first to open and last to close and citizens have benefited from the public school system.
    • In India, across states, there is a sense of despair due to unemployment and lack of financial resources, which has snowballed due to the pandemic, resulting in greater inequality.
    • Sending children to school, as opposed to keeping them at home, is a huge financial investment, particularly in the private school system.
    • Parents have refrained from sending their children back to school due to a lack of funds.

    Viewing education through government school lens

    • The big shift that we as a nation have to make is viewing education through a government school lens.
    • This will only take place if states provide the opportunity for free, compulsory, neighbourhood education.
    • Radical reforms have to be implemented to restructure government schools and ensure quality.
    • The government, both at the Centre and in the states, should build good-quality primary, middle and high schools and provide facilities that the best private schools have to offer.
    • Online learning is not the way forward: We are subsumed by the myth that technology has expanded potential.
    • The concern is that online learning will create greater inequality, not only in the global South but even in the most well-resourced corners of the planet.
    • Online learning is not the way forward.
    • The UNESCO’s International Commission on the Futures of Education states in its report, “the core commitments that should always be remembered are public education and common good”.
    • It says, “This is not the time to step back and weaken these principles but rather to affirm and reinforce them.”
    • We must take the opportunity to protect and advance public education.
    • We cannot allow the government health system and government education to be opposed to one another. Their synergies must overlap

    Conclusion

    Public education is crucial to societies, communities and individual lives. It is the only thing that will enable us to live with dignity and purpose.

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Tackling the inflation

    Context

    Expectations that commodity and oil prices would cool down in 2022 as the pandemic ebbed were belied by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which exacerbated existing pressures. Fresh lockdowns in China are also extending the pandemic-induced supply-chain bottlenecks.

    Challenges for central banks

    • Systemically important central banks that viewed the consistent uptick in inflation as transitory — caused by post-pandemic supply shocks — are now finding it hard to bottle the genie.
    • Inflation in the time of weak growth: What central banks like even less is having to deal with rising inflation in times of weak growth.
    • Because the primary tool they have to fight it — the interest rate hike — can be recessionary.

    Inflation in India

    • CPI inflation averaged 6.3 per cent in the January-March 2022, above the RBI’s target range of 2-6 per cent.
    • The RBI forecasts inflation for April-June at 6.3 per cent.
    • One more quarter over the 6 per cent mark, and the central bank would owe the government an explanation.
    • Factors driving inflation: Fiscal 2021-In fiscal 2021, inflationary pressures came largely from food and, to some extent, core which excludes fuel and food.
    • Fiscal 2022- In fiscal 2022, crude prices hardened to emerge as the new driver. Core inflation firmed up further.
    • But the drop in food inflation offset this, so overall inflation was lower at 5.5 per cent compared with 6.2 per cent the previous year.

    Understanding inflation in fiscal 2023

    • What makes this fiscal worrying is, all three-fule, food and core are firmly pointing in the same direction — up.
    • Fuel inflation, in double digits for a year now, shows no signs of easing.
    • Energy prices have risen sharply across the board — from crude oil to coal and natural gas.
    • The cut in excise duties on petrol and diesel in November 2021 is insufficient to bring down fuel inflation, in the event crude prices stay above $90 per barrel this fiscal.
    • Food inflation: Food is the most volatile component and biggest mover of CPI inflation, given that it occupies 39 per cent weight in the average consumption basket.  
    • On the positive side, India looks set to enjoy a fourth successive year of normal monsoon and still has good buffer stocks of rice and wheat.
    • What is certain, though, is the rising cost of food production.
    • Prices of fertilisers, pesticides, diesel and animal feed are all surging.
    • Already pricey edible oils are set to get even costlier, with Indonesia’s recent ban on refined palm oil exports adding pressure.
    • No wonder then, food inflation is expected to rise.
    • Core inflation: Core inflation, a barometer of demand pressures, will continue to climb despite an environment of weak demand due to the persistence of supply shocks.
    • For producers, the bump-up in international prices across energy and metal commodities since the war has brought more pain.
    • But a weak and uneven demand recovery means producers had limited ability to pass on cost pressures to consumers.
    • Such pass-through has been partial, at best.
    • For most goods, CPI inflation has been much lower than the corresponding WPI last fiscal.
    • The pattern of recovery is also uneven across different segments, with contact-intensive services lagging formal manufacturing.
    • But contact-based services will catch up sooner or later, as restrictions become a thing of the past.
    • The last time we saw such broad-basing of inflationary pressures was after the Global Financial Crisis.
    • The difference this time around is consumer demand, which remains weak and will limit the extent of pass-through.

    Conclusion

    Forecasting inflation in such uncertain times is fraught with risk. The RBI has predicted ~5.7 per cent consumer inflation this fiscal, while professional forecasters see it at 5.6 per cent. The odds currently favour a higher inflation print, and a rate hike in June.

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Common values, shared threats in India-Australia cyber security ties

    Context

    Western and media attention may be focused on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but countries have not taken their eye off the Indo-Pacific where there is clear evidence of the changing world order.

    India and Australia faces a common threat to cyber security

    • The India-Australia ECTA is a concrete example of the bilateral faith in common values, and understanding of threats and goals.
    • A reflection of this is cooperation in cyber security.
    • China is accused of having amassed a large number of cyber weapons and has allegedly carried out sophisticated operations aimed at espionage, theft of intellectual property, and destructive attacks on internet resources of some countries.
    • Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups: Australia and India have been at the receiving end of several such campaigns by the so-called Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups, supported by or assumed to be located in China.

    Steps toward cooperation in cyber security

    • At the June 2020 virtual bilateral summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison elevated the bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
    • New cyber security framework: The new cyber framework includes a five-year plan to work together on the digital economy, cybersecurity and critical and emerging technologies.
    • Bilateral research: This will be supported by a $9.7 million fund for bilateral research to improve regional cyber resilience.
    • An annual Cyber Policy Dialogue, a new Joint Working Group on Cyber Security Cooperation and a joint working group on ICTs have been established.
    • An annual India-Australia Foreign Ministers Cyber Framework Dialogue will be held.
    • India to be part of International Cyber Engagement Strategy: India will now be included in a core Australian initiative called the International Cyber Engagement Strategy — it began in 2017 to actively conduct capacity-building arrangements in Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand, and support similar activities in Malaysia, Vietnam and Cambodia.
    • A joint Centre of Excellence for Critical and Emerging Technology Policy, to be located in Bengaluru, will be set up.

    Steps taken by India to improve cyber security

    • India has set up the office of the National Cybersecurity Coordinator, a national Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-IN), a national Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Agency (NCIIPC), and made appropriate amendments to the Information Technology Act and Rules to enhance its cyber security posture.
    • This has upped India’s rank to 10th in the Global Cyber Security Index (GCI) 2020, from 47th just two years earlier.
    • India has capable cybersecurity professionals.

    Conclusion

    Deepening cooperation can develop avenues for mutual learning and create complementary markets in cyber tools and technologies, boosting bilateral business and strategic commitments on both continents.

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • ‘Mission Antyodaya’ can help transform rural India

    Context

    This article argues that given the right momentum, the ‘Mission Antyodaya’ project bears great promise to eradicate poverty in its multiple dimensions among rural households.

    Background of Mission Antyodaya

    • The ‘Mission Antyodaya’ project was launched by the Government of India in 2017-18.
    • The Ministry of Panchayati Raj and the Ministry of Rural Development act as the nodal agents to take the mission forward.
    • Key goals: The main objective of ‘Mission Antyodaya’ is to ensure optimum use of resources through the convergence of various schemes that address multiple deprivations of poverty, making gram panchayat the hub of a development plan.
    • Annual survey: This planning process is supported by an annual survey that helps to assess the various development gaps at the gram panchayat level, by collecting data regarding the 29 subjects assigned to panchayats by the Eleventh Schedule of the Constitution.
    • Also, data regarding health and nutrition, social security, good governance, water management and so on are also collected.
    • The idea of the Ministry of Panchayati Raj to identify the gaps in basic needs at the local level, and integrating resources of various schemes, self-help groups, voluntary organisations and so on to finance them needs coordination and capacity-building of a high order.
    • If pursued in a genuine manner, this can foster economic development and inter-jurisdictional equity.

    Infrastructural gaps as pointed out by the Mission Antyodaya Survey

    • The ‘Mission Antyodaya’ survey in 2019-20 for the first time collected data that shed light on the infrastructural gaps from 2.67 lakh gram panchayats, comprising 6.48 lakh villages with 1.03 billion population.
    • The maximum score values assigned will add up to 100 and are presented in class intervals of 10.
    • While no State in India falls in the top score bracket of 90 to 100, 1,484 gram panchayats fall in the bottom bracket.
    • Even in the score range of 80 to 90, 10 States and all Union Territories do not appear.
    • The total number of gram panchayats for all the 18 States that have reported adds up only to 260, constituting only 0.10% of the total 2,67,466 gram panchayats in the country.
    •  If we consider a score range of 70-80 as a respectable attainment level, Kerala tops but accounts for only 34.69% of gram panchayats of the State, the corresponding all-India average is as low as 1.09%.
    • The composite index data, a sort of surrogate for human development, are also not encouraging.
    • Although only 15 gram panchayats in the country fall in the bottom range below 10 scores, more than a fifth of gram panchayats in India are below the 40 range.
    • The gap report and the composite index show in unmistakable terms that building ‘economic development and social justice’ remains a distant goal even after 30 years of the decentralisation reforms and nearly 75 years into Independence.

    Way forward

    • Converge resources: Given the ‘saturation approach’ (100% targets on select items) of the Ministry of Panchayati Raj, the possibilities of realising universal primary health care, literacy, drinking water supply and the like are also immense.
    • But there is no serious effort to converge resources (the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, the National Rural Livelihood Mission, National Social Assistance Programme, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, etc.) and save administrative expenses.
    • Deploy the data to India’s fiscal federalism: Another lapse is the failure to deploy the data to India’s fiscal federalism, particularly to improve the transfer system and horizontal equity in the delivery of public goods in India at the sub-State level.
    • The constitutional goal of planning and implementing economic development and social justice can be achieved only through strong policy interventions.

    Conclusion

    The policy history of India has been witness to the phenomenon of announcing big projects and failing to take them to their logical consequence. ‘Mission Antyodaya’ is a striking case in recent times.

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • The goal of an energy-secure South Asia

    Context

    Given that a 0.46% increase in energy consumption leads to a 1% increase in GDP per capita, electrification not only helps in improving lifestyle but also adds to the aggregate economy by improving the nation’s GDP.

    Widening electricity coverage in South Asian nations

    • The electricity policies of South Asian countries aim at providing electricity to every household.
    • The issues these policies address include generation, transmission, distribution, rural electrification, research and development, environmental issues, energy conservation and human resource training.
    • Bangladesh has achieved 100% electrification recently while Bhutan, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka accomplished this in 2019.
    • For India and Afghanistan, the figures are 94.4% and 97.7%, respectively, while for Pakistan it is 73.91%.
    • Bhutan has the cheapest electricity price in South Asia (U.S.$0.036 per kilowatt hour, or kWh) while India has the highest (U.S.$0.08 per kWh.) 
    • South Asia is reinforcing its transmission and distribution frameworks to cater to growing energy demand not only through the expansion of power grids but also by boosting green energy such as solar power or hydroelectricity.

    Adapting to renewable

    • Geographical differences between these countries call for a different approach depending on resources.
    •  India leads South Asia in adapting to renewable power, with its annual demand for power increasing by 6%.
    • India’s pledge to move 40% of total energy produced to renewable energy is also a big step.
    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his ‘net-zero by 2070’ pledge at COP26 in Glasgow asserted India’s target to increase the capacity of renewable energy from 450GW to 500GW by 2030.
    • The region is moving towards green growth and energy as India hosts the International Solar Alliance.
    • South Asia has vast renewable energy resources — hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and biomass — which can be harnessed for domestic use as well as regional power trade.

    Steps toward SDGs

    • Solar power-driven electrification in rural Bangladesh is a huge step towards Sustainable Development Goal 7.
    • Access to electricity improves infrastructure i.e., SDG 9 (which is “build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation”).
    • Energy access helps online education through affordable Internet (SDG 4, or “ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all”), more people are employed (SDG 1: “no poverty”), and are able to access tech-based health solutions (SDG 3, or “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”).

    Regional energy trade

    • The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) prepared the regional energy cooperation framework in 2014, but its implementation is questionable.
    • Energy trade agreements: There are a number of bilateral and multilateral energy trade agreements such as the India-Nepal petroleum pipeline deal, the India-Bhutan hydroelectric joint venture, the Myanmar-Bangladesh-India gas pipeline, the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) sub-regional framework for energy cooperation, and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, rumoured to be extended to Bangladesh.
    • Challenges: ‘South Asia’s regional geopolitics is determined by the conflation of identity, politics, and international borders.
    • The current participation in cross-border projects has been restricted to respective tasks, among Bhutan and India or Nepal and India.
    • It is only now that power-sharing projects among the three nations, Nepal, India, and Bangladesh, have been deemed conceivable.

    Way forward

    • Energy framework: Going forward, resilient energy frameworks are what are needed such as better building-design practices, climate-proof infrastructure, a flexible monitory framework, and an integrated resource plan that supports renewable energy innovation.
    • Public-Private Partnership: Government alone cannot be the provider of reliable and secure energy frameworks, and private sector investment is crucial.

    Conclusion

    While universal coverage can catalyse the region’s economic growth, energy trade must be linked to peace building.

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Anchoring inflationary expectations

    Context

    The RBI released the Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH) for March 2022 on April 8. The survey results present interesting behavioural insights for public policy, particularly from a gender perspective.

    Significance of inflation expectations

    • The impact of inflation — the overall increase in the prices in an economy — is felt by everyone.
    • High inflation adversely affects the poor.
    • Individuals, therefore, form expectations about how prices will behave in the future to take precautions.
    • If they anticipate high inflation, they negotiate wages or rents to compensate against a potential fall in their purchasing power.
    • Self-fulfilling: Increased wages increase the cost of production, making expectations self-fulfilling and, therefore, playing a pivotal role in determining inflation.
    • Anchoring inflation expectations: Central banks raise interest rates to ‘anchor’ high inflationary expectations when temporary price shocks, on account of drought or disruption in global supply chains, entail the risk of getting transmitted into actual inflation.

    What shapes inflation expectations of individuals?

    • A recent study carried out by Acunto et al., 2020, validates that what agents frequently purchase, instead of those purchased infrequently, shape their perception of the general level of inflation.
    • Factors shaping individual’s perception: A significant factor shaping perceptions on inflation are the prices that individuals observe in their daily lives, originally posited by Robert Lucas in his seminal Islands model.
    • Therefore, generalising aggregate inflation expectations for making general views of prices in the economy could be misleading.
    • This insight has implications for gender-based differences in anticipating inflation in the future.
    • Existing literature shows that women have higher inflationary expectations compared to men.
    •  However, a new study reveals that it is not the innate characteristics as much as the traditional gender roles that explain this divergence.

    Natural experiments

    • To test its validity, trends of Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH) before and after the lockdown period present itself as a crude ‘natural experiment’.
    • The authors hypothesise that if traditional gender roles are the primary reasons behind the gender inflation expectation gap, then the lockdown-imposed work-from-home (WFH) arrangements or loss of employment should contribute in closing this gap.
    • The logic: during the lockdown, people in urban areas lost jobs or remained at home, taking a relatively equal share in the frequent day-to-day purchases.
    • Two categories of occupations are studied here: homemakers (assumed to be dominated by women) and financial sector employees (assumed to be dominated by men).
    • Looking at the trends of the RBI surveys for the period between March 2018 and March 2020, homemakers report higher inflation expectations than financial sector employees.
    • However, this gap has narrowed over the last two years and has almost converged in March 2022.
    • A possible explanation of closing of the gap could be the gradual ‘experience effect’ of male-dominated financial sector employees.
    • Experience effect, contrary to Rational Expectations Theory that assumes individuals base their decisions on the information available to them, is based on the premise that actual personal experiences shape behaviour more than being informed about the outcome of the event.

    Conclusion

    Focus could be shifted more on the microfoundations — understanding macroeconomic outcomes by studying factors that shape individual behaviour and decision making — for making better policy decisions concerning macroeconomic phenomena.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • India, Europe and the Russian complication

    Context

    The re-election of Emmanuel Macron as the president of France on Sunday has sent a sigh of relief across Europe and North America. Delhi too is pleased with the return of Macron, who laid a strong foundation for India’s strategic partnership with France.

    Why France election matters to the regional and domestic order in Europe

    • Unlike the Soviet Union, which sought to shape European politics though left-wing parties, Russia today influences European politics through right-wing parties.
    • Victory for Marine Le Pen, Macron’s opponent, would have dramatically complicated the geopolitics of Europe.
    • Le Pen, like so many other right-wing leaders in Europe, has close ties to Vladimir Putin.
    • Le Pen’s victory would have not only altered France’s international trajectory, but also shaken the EU to its political core.

    Three factors shaping the transformation of India’s ties with Europe

    • Russia’s threat to the regional and domestic order in Europe is among multiple factors shaping Delhi’s intensifying engagement with Brussels.
    • Three major external factors are facilitating the transformation of India’s ties with Europe.

    1] Russian Question

    • For India, a normal relationship between Russia and the West would have been ideal.
    • But Russia’s confrontation with the West comes during India’s rapidly expanding economic and political ties to Europe and America.
    • Delhi might be sentimental about India’s historic Russian connection but it is not going to sacrifice its growing ties to the West on that altar.
    • Russia’s declining economic weight and growing international isolation begins to simplify India’s choices.
    • During the last few weeks, Delhi has insisted that its silence is not an endorsement of Russian aggression.
    • India’s position has continued to evolve.
    • Delhi’s repeated emphasis on respecting the territorial integrity of states is a repudiation of Russia’s unacceptable aggression.
    • Meanwhile, geographic proximity and economic complementarity have tied Europe even more deeply to Russia.
    • The EU’s annual trade with Russia at around $260 billion is massive in comparison to India’s $10 billion.
    • Putin’s reckless invasion of Ukraine has compelled Europe to embark on a costly effort to disconnect from Russia.
    • The war in Ukraine has certainly presented a major near-term problem that needs to be managed by Delhi and Brussels.

    2] China Question

    •  Moscow has been deepening ties with Beijing for more than two decades triggering many anxieties in Delhi.
    •  In February, Putin travelled to Beijing to announce a partnership “without limits”.
    • India has no option but to manage the consequences of the Russian decision.
    • In the last two decades, China has emerged as a great power and now presents a generational challenge for Indian policymakers.
    • That challenge has been made harder by Putin’s alliance with Xi Jinping.
    • As Delhi strives to retain a reasonable relationship with Moscow, Europe emerges as an important partner in letting India cope with the China challenge.
    •  Thanks to the growing problems of doing business with Xi’s China, Beijing’s geopolitical alliance with Moscow, and the rapid deterioration of Sino-US relations, Brussels is ready to invest serious political capital in building purposeful strategic ties with India.

    3] American Question

    • Until recently it appeared that Europe’s calls for “strategic autonomy” from the US were in sync with India’s own worldview.
    • But the Ukraine crisis has underlined the US’s centrality in securing Europe against Russia.
    • In Asia, Chinese assertiveness has brought back the US as a critical factor in shaping peace and security.
    • Washington wants a strong Europe taking greater responsibility for its own security; it would like Delhi to play a larger role in Asia and become a credible provider of regional security.
    • Above all, America wants India and Europe to build stronger ties with each other.

    Conclusion

    For the first time since independence, India’s interests are now aligning with those of Europe. Together, Delhi and Brussels can help reshape Eurasia as well as the Indo-Pacific.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Settling India’s COVID-19 mortality data

    Context

    Over the last year, the World Health Organization (WHO) has been busy, in an unprecedented effort, to calculate the global death toll from COVID-19.

    Revision of Covid-19 death toll by WHO

    • Globally from an estimated six million reported deaths, WHO now estimates these deaths to be closer to almost triple the number.
    • The new estimates also take into account formerly uncounted deaths, but also deaths resulting from the impact of COVID-19.
    • For example, millions who could not access care, i.e., diagnosis or treatment due to COVID-19 restrictions or from COVID-19 cases overwhelming health services.
    • India’s stand: India is in serious disagreement with the WHO-prepared COVID-19 mortality estimates.
    • The argument being made by India’s health establishment through a public clarification is that this is an overestimation, and the methodology employed is incorrect.

    India’s Covid response

    • India’s COVID-19 response has been replete with delays and denials.
    • For instance, for the longest time that India’s COVID-19 number rose, the health establishment continued to insist that community transmission was not under way.
    • It took months and several lakh cases before they agreed that COVID-19 was finally in community transmission.
    • The devastation of the second wave showed how unprepared we were to combat the deadly Delta variant.
    •  By the time the wave subsided, India’s population was devastated, and helpless, seeing dignity neither in disease nor in death.

    Conclusion

    The figures ratchet up not only issues of administrative but also moral accountability for governments that they have been previously side stepped.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Finding workable solutions to India-Sri Lanka fisheries issue

    Context

    After a gap of 15 months, the India-Sri Lanka Joint Working Group (JWG) on fisheries held its much-awaited deliberations (in virtual format) on March 25.

    Background of the issue

    • As sections of fishermen from the Palk Bay bordering districts of Tamil Nadu continue to transgress the International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL), cases of many of them getting arrested and their boats being impounded by the Sri Lankan authorities continue.
    • Apart from poaching in the territorial waters of Sri Lanka, the use of mechanised bottom trawlers is another issue that has become a bone of contention between the fishermen of the two countries; the dispute is not just between the two states.
    • Use of mechanised bottom trawlers: This method of fishing, which was once promoted by the authorities in India, is now seen as being extremely adverse to the marine ecology, and has been acknowledged so by India.
    • The actions of the Tamil Nadu fishermen adversely affect their counterparts in the Northern Province.
    • Reason for transgression: The fishermen of Tamil Nadu experience a genuine problem — the lack of fishing areas consequent to the demarcation of the IMBL in June 1974.
    • If they confine themselves to Indian waters, they find the area available for fishing full of rocks and coral reefs besides being shallow.
    • Under the Tamil Nadu Marine Fishing Regulation Act 1983, mechanised fishing boats can fish only beyond 3 NM from the coast.
    • This explains the trend of the fishermen having to cross the IMBL frequently.

    Way forward

    • Transition to deep-sea fishing: While Indian fishermen can present a road map for their transition to deep sea fishing or alternative methods of fishing, the Sri Lankan side has to take a pragmatic view that the transition cannot happen abruptly.
    • In the meantime, India will have to modify its scheme on deep-sea fishing to accommodate the concerns of its fishermen, especially those from Ramanathapuram district, so that they take to deep-sea fishing without any reservation.
    • Alternative livelihood measures: There is a compelling need for the Central and State governments to implement in Tamil Nadu the Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana in a proactive manner.
    • The scheme, which was flagged off two years ago, covers alternative livelihood measures too including seaweed cultivation, open sea cage cultivation, and sea/ocean ranching.
    • During Mr. Jaishankar’s visit, India had signed a memorandum of understanding with Sri Lanka for the development of fisheries harbours.
    • This can be modified to include a scheme for deep-sea fishing to the fishermen of the North.
    • Joint research on fisheries: . It is a welcome development that the JWG has agreed to have joint research on fisheries, which should be commissioned at the earliest.
    • Institutional mechanism: Simultaneously, the two countries should explore the possibility of establishing a permanent multi-stakeholder institutional mechanism to regulate fishing activity in the region.
    • Using common thread of culture, language and religion: The people of the two countries in general and fisherfolk in particular have common threads of language, culture and religion, all of which can be used purposefully to resolve any dispute.

    Conclusion

    What everyone needs to remember is that the fisheries dispute is not an insurmountable problem. A number of options are available to make the Palk Bay not only free of troubles but also a model for collaborative endeavours in fishing.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)