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Type: Op-ed

  • Institutional fixes and the need for ethical politics

    The article discusses the recent event in Madhya Pradesh where a group of legislature resigned bringing down the government. A most important issue arising out such incidents is circumventing of the laws made to avoid such things from happening. Several such issues along with their solutions are described here.

    New method to bypass the anti-defection law

    • The political activities in Madhya Pradesh represent a new method of bypassing the anti-defection law and toppling elected governments.
    • The government in Karnataka was brought down in July last year in a similar manner with 17 MLAs of the ruling coalition resigning and joining the BJP.
    • What method was used? Under this novel method, a set of legislators of the party in power is made to resign from the Assembly to reduce the total strength of the House enough for the opposition party to cross the halfway mark to form the government.
    • In the ensuing by-elections, the members who resigned were then fielded as ruling party candidates (most of whom have been re-elected in the case of Karnataka).
    • The same practice is likely to be repeated in Madhya Pradesh soon.

    A question based on anti-defection law and its implication for healthy debate in the parliament was asked in 2013. And that issues still persist. So, take note of these issues.

    Exploiting the loophole in the Tenth Schedule

    • This method of mass defection circumvents the provisions of the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution (better known as the anti-defection law)
    • What is the Tenth Schedule? The tenth schedule prescribes the grounds for disqualification of legislators: voluntarily giving up party membership and voting or abstaining to vote against party directions.
    • Resignation is not mentioned as a ground for disqualification.
    • However, the Speaker in Karnataka disqualified them for the rest of the Assembly’s term, thereby barring them from contesting the by-polls.
    • While the Supreme Court upheld the disqualification.
    • It stuck down the bar from contesting by-polls.
    • In Madhya Pradesh, since the Speaker has accepted the resignation of the MLAs, the defectors can in any case contest the by-polls.

    Damaging the underpinnings of democracy

    • The recurrence of this model of defection signals the exploitation of the inherent weaknesses of the anti-defection law.
    • While solo legislators jumping ship might have reduced now, “horse-trading” seems to have gone from retail to wholesale.
    • This threatens the underpinnings of India’s electoral democracy since such surreptitious capture of power essentially betrays the people’s mandate in a general election.

    Kihoto case is an important case in relation to the anti-defection law.

    Time to reframe the anti-defection law

    • In this context, it is important to examine whether the anti-defection law fulfils any purpose.
    • This law raises fundamental concerns regarding the role of a legislator in a parliamentary democracy.
    • Issues with the law: It denies the legislator the right to take a principled position on a policy matter and reduces her to an involuntary supporter of the whims of party bosses.
    • Challenge to the constitutionality: The constitutionality of the Tenth Schedule was challenged for violating the Basic Structure of Constitution with regard to parliamentary democracy and free speech.
    • Judicial review of the Speaker’s decision: The Supreme Court in Kihoto Hollohan v. Zachillhu (1992) in a 3-2 verdict upheld the law while reserving the right of judicial review of the Speaker’s decision.

    What are the shortcomings in the anti-defection law?

    • Restriction on the freedom of legislator: The anti-defection law, on the one hand, severely restricts the freedom of a legislator and makes her a slave of party whips.
    • Failure in preventing the horse-trading: On the other hand, it has not been able to meet its primary objective of preventing horse-trading and continues to be circumvented to bring down elected governments.
    • This calls for reforms that address concerns at both ends of the spectrum.

    Following two are the solutions offered here. They are important from Mains point of view. As solutions are often asked for the pressing issues.

    Dinesh Goswami Committee and other suggestion

    • Restrict the scope of the binding whip: For addressing the first issue, as the Dinesh Goswami Committee also suggested, the scope of the binding whip should be restricted to a vote of confidence.
    • For addressing the second issue, it is best to institutionalise the Karnataka Speaker’s decision to bar the defected members from contesting in the ensuing by-poll, if not for a longer period.
    • This will disincentivise MLAs from jumping ship.
    • These reforms would require a constitutional amendment to the Tenth Schedule, an uphill task under the current circumstances.

    Conclusion

    We are facing a deeper challenge of the corrosion of India’s parliamentary system, for even in jurisdictions without such anti-defection laws, we do not see “horse-trading” and “resort politics”. Hence, beyond institutional fixes, we also need a popular articulation of an ethical politics that causes the public to shun such political manoeuvres.

    Back2Basic: What is the Tenth Schedule?

    • The Tenth Schedule was inserted in the Constitution in 1985.
    • It lays down the process by which legislators may be disqualified on grounds of defection by the Presiding Officer of a legislature based on a petition by any other member of the House.
    • A legislator is deemed to have defected if he either voluntarily gives up the membership of his party or disobeys the directives of the party leadership on a vote.
    • This implies that a legislator defying (abstaining or voting against) the party whip on any issue can lose his membership of the House.
    • The law applies to both Parliament and state assemblies.
    • Exceptions under the law: Legislators may change their party without the risk of disqualification in certain circumstances.
    • The law allows a party to merge with or into another party provided that at least two-thirds of its legislators are in favour of the merger.
    • In such a scenario, neither the members who decide to merge nor the ones who stay with the original party will face disqualification.
    • Is there any time limit to decide on the matter? The law does not specify a time period for the Presiding Officer to decide on a disqualification plea.
    • Given that courts can intervene only after the Presiding Officer has decided on the matter, the petitioner seeking disqualification has no option but to wait for this decision to be made.

  • What nation can learn from Kerala in the fight against Covid-19?

    With figures emerging of Kerala’s success in dealing with the Covid-19, the rest of the nation has lessons to learn from it. This article describes the approach adopted by Kerala, and how various factors like robust health infrastructure, past experience etc. are helping it.

    Kerala stands out in India: some figures and facts

    • The COVID curve in Kerala is flattening.
    • Every day, for a week now, the number of recoveries has exceeded the number of new infections.
    • The recovery rate in Kerala is nearly 50 per cent while the all-India average is around 11.
    • While the mortality rate among the infected is 5 per cent in Kerala, the all-India average is 3.4 per cent.
    • The transmission rate of a primary carrier is 6 while in Kerala it is only 0.4.

    With Covid-19, we are in unknown territory in many ways. If Kerala emerges as the success model, the question can be framed from that perspective. So, note down the factors described below that are helping the state in tackling Covid-19 successfully.

    Preparing for the next challenge

    • Kerala is preparing for the next challenge, the outcome of which will determine the result of the war against COVID.
    • Lifting of the lockdown is going to result in an influx of returning migrants from foreign countries and other states.
    • Hundreds of thousands would have to be quarantined, tested and, if positive, treated, ensuring there is no secondary spread.
    • State authorities have already identified accommodation and other facilities for more than two lakh persons.
    • Use of big data analytics: The state is also exploring the possibility of big data analytics to plan a strategy and, if necessary, for reverse quarantining.
    • Authorities have access to WHO data covering nearly two-thirds of the state`s population.
    • Integrating this data with the information currently being generated, we will be able to map vulnerable sections of the population, simulate scenarios and plan ahead.
    • Exit strategy: An exit strategy from the lockdown is being prepared to protect livelihoods and stimulate the economy.

    Strength of the public health system of Kerala

    • The single most important factor that enabled Kerala to be prepared for the COVID is the strength of the public health system.
    • Kerala’s health system is a proud legacy of our past.
    • It has had a big push in infrastructure and equipment investment of around Rs 4,000 crore from the Kerala Infrastructure Investment Fund Board.
    • Five thousand seven hundred and seventy-five new posts have also been created.
    • The Aardram Health Mission was launched with a focus to transform the PHCs into family health centres.
    • Distinctive feature: There is also the distinctive flavour of Kerala — mass participation in preventive and palliative healthcare.
    • Training to health workers: The morale of health personnel has been exceptionally high.
    • Special training, protective gear, scientific duty rotation and, most importantly, societal empathy and solidarity, have all contributed.

    Learning from the past experience

    • Nipah outbreak experience: The recent experiences of successful containment of the Nipah outbreak and management of the two post-flood health situations have provided a kind of herd immunity to the health workers to crisis situations.
    • Covid-19 preparedness: Once news of the Wuhan pandemic came, the Kerala health system scrambled to readiness — the control room was set up, mock drills were organised and the first influx was contained.
    • Once migrants from the Gulf and Europe began to return, things began to get out of hand.
    • But now this battle has been successfully concluded.

    Testing and tracing in Kerala

    • A route map of each COVID positive case is prepared and given publicity, alerting everybody who might have been in contact.
    • The protocol of cycles of intense test, trace, isolate and treatment has been the norm.
    • Kerala has the highest test rate in the country.
    • Break the Chain Campaign to promote social distancing has been successful.
    • Lockdown by itself is not going to contain the COVID spread. It would continue to multiply within households and dormitories.
    • Testing has been woefully insufficient in the national response so far.

    Welfare payment in Kerala more than the rest of the country

    • In Kerala, 55 lakh elderly and disadvantaged have received Rs 8,500 as welfare payments.
    • An equal number of workers have been paid Rs 1,000-3,000 each from the welfare funds.
    • Every family has been provided with a food kit.
    • Interest-free consumption loan of Rs 2,000 crore has been distributed.
    • Besides, nearly 4 lakh meals are distributed every day to the needy from community kitchens set up by local governments.
    • Local governments are also duty-bound to monitor the camps of migrant workers, set up new ones and ensure medicine and food to them.

    Decentralisation paying off in Kerala

    • All the above was not made possible by the state government alone.
    • It is the synergy generated by integrating state government plans and programmes with the local governments, the co-operatives, women neighbourhood groups (Kudumbashree) and civil society organisations that make Kerala distinct.
    • The floods and the pandemic have given testimony for the potential of democratic decentralisation.
    • It is a case of multi-level planning with technical committees and groups working at the state level coordinated by the chief minister.

    Conclusion

    Though it is too early to declare Kerala as a success story, still there are many lessons to be learned by the rest of the country in its fight against Covid-19.

  • Insolvency code should be suspended for six months to help companies recover

    This article argues the suspension of IBC for six months. The issues arising out of suspension like damage to the creditors are also dealt with here. Reading of this article will help us understand the finer details of IBC that are relevant from the UPSC point of view. We have also covered one article from livemint dealing with the same issue, but that article covered the issue in a broader sense.

    Who are operational and financial creditors?

    • After the lockdown is over, several companies are likely to default on their dues to both operational and financial creditors.
    • Who is a financial creditor? The financial creditors include banks and others who have given financial assistance to a company in the form of loans and debentures.
    • According to a 2018 amendment to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) 2017, flat purchasers are also deemed as financial creditors.
    • An operational creditor is just about anyone who has to receive money from a company.
    • The IBC provides a fast-track mechanism to deal with companies which are unable to repay their creditors and have become financially unviable.
    • Section 22 of the Code mandates the appointment of a Resolution Professional (RP) who is expected to miraculously turn around the company in 330 days.
    • If this attempt fails, the company goes into liquidation.

    The two types of creditors were in the news, so pay attention to these terms.

    Increase in threshold limit to file an insolvency petition

    • The IBC’s provisions have been extensively used by various creditors whose dues were not paid.
    • What was the threshold limit? Initially, the threshold limit was just Rs 1 lakh and the IBC became an effective recovery mechanism for all operational creditors.
    • What is the limit now? Just before the lockdown, the finance minister raised the threshold for invoking the insolvency provisions to Rs 1 crore.
    • This limit was raised to prevent proceedings being initiated against small and medium enterprises.

    Possibility of the domino effect after the lockdown is over

    • After the lockdown, several enterprises, large, medium and small, might not be able to pay their dues, at least in the short-term.
    • The easiest way for a creditor to recover money is to initiate insolvency proceedings against the debtor company and threaten it with liquidation.
    • The shutdown of business after the lockdown could have a domino effect.
    • How would the domino effect come into play? If an auto-manufacturer has shut down its operations, the ancillary units will not get their dues.
    • This would then lead to non-payment to downstream vendors and service providers as well.
    • It might take at least three to four months for the situation to stabilise.

    Steps that should be taken to avoid the domino effect

    • Moratorium on the IBC: The most important, and immediate, step that needs to be taken is to have a six-month moratorium on the IBC.
    • It may be necessary to promulgate an ordinance suspending the prospective operation of Sections 7 and 9 of the IBC so that no fresh petition is filed against a company.
    • Impact on creditors: While this could hurt some of the creditors, the damage that could be done to the corporate sector by invoking the IBC is likely to be far greater.
    • A distressed creditor is not without a remedy as he can always approach the civil courts for relief, which will not be so severe on a defaulting company.
    • If an insolvency petition is filed and the RP appointed, it is difficult to stop the insolvency process.
    • The IBC requires a financially-stressed company to be taken over by a financially-sound
    • For example, Essar Steel was taken over by ArcelorMittal and Bhushan Steel was taken over by Tata Steel.
    • In the current scenario, it will be difficult, if not impossible, for an RP to find a suitable buyer and the only option would be to liquidate the company.
    • Using the insolvency process to recover dues is contrary to the IBC’s objectives.

    The objective of the IBC is not just insolvency but the reorganisation of companies, maximisation of value of assets and the need to balance the interests of all stakeholders. Pay attention to this point.

    How the suspension of the IBC will be beneficial?

    • Suspending the IBC for a short period would enable several companies to return to normalcy.
    • It will help them function without the constant threat of an insolvency application and its Board of Directors and management being taken over by the RP.
    • Moreover, the National Company Law Tribunal benches will simply be unable to take any additional workload.

    Conclusion

    Suspending the IBC for six months would be a much-needed step to prevent further damage to the economy. It would be in the larger public interest. Indeed, at this critical stage, permitting the legal remedy of insolvency could be the last nail in the coffin of many companies.

    Back2Basics: What is the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code?

    • IBC provides for a time-bound process to resolve insolvency.
    • When a default in repayment occurs, creditors gain control over debtor’s assets and must take decisions to resolve insolvency.
    • Under IBC debtor and creditor both can start ‘recovery’ proceedings against each other.
    • Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code 2016 was implemented through an act of Parliament.
    • It got Presidential assent in May 2016.
    • The law was necessitated due to huge pile-up of non-performing loans of banks and delay in debt resolution.
    • Insolvency resolution in India took 4.3 years on an average against other countries such as United Kingdom (1 year) and United States of America (1.5 years), which is sought to be reduced besides facilitating the resolution of big-ticket loan accounts.

  • China manipulates the WHO, India needs to be cautious

    The article elaborates on the role played by China in manipulating WHO to its advantage and to the detriment of the rest of the world. India must take cognisance of the growing Chinese influence at various global platforms and act accordingly.

    China’s role in electing Director-General of WHO

    • Tedros was Ethiopia’s Minister of Health (2005—2012) and Minister of Foreign Affairs (2012 to 2016).
    • In 2017, China catapulted him to lead the WHO as its Director General (DG).
    • India, the world’s largest democracy, played second fiddle.
    • We will never know who gamed India inside and abroad, but tough questions must be asked.

    Pandemic as a wake-up call for India

    • Public health is a rights-driven developmental track for any country, especially for India.
    • The ministries of foreign, trade, information and broadcasting, home, finance, women and child development, law, infrastructure and industry, among others, should be part of the country’s health equation and decision-making on a daily basis.
    • Should the WHO be sitting in on high-level health ministry discussions given what we now know about its allegiance to all things Chinese?
    • China, an economic and military behemoth, now seeks the same power in public health.
    • India, with its double burden of disease and an uncritical alignment with the WHO, is fertile ground for data and dollars.

    Dependence on China for API

    • For now, India, like most countries, is at China’s mercy because of years of short-sightedness and corruption in the health sector.
    • While it is hailed as the pharmacy of the world and has sent drugs as humanitarian assistance, India relies heavily on raw materials from China.
    • Quick thinking and swift action can reverse this.

    The above points highlight the implications of Chinese dominance for India. Questions related to China is a recurrent theme in the UPSC papers. Next thing to note here is India’s dependence on China for APIs.

    The US’s stand on WHO funding

    • Some are blaming US President Donald Trump for contemplating cutting off funding for the WHO and not Tedros, for taking orders from China about the pandemic.
    • The war is not between an American President and Tedros.
    • It is between Tedros, a global public health head, and his subservience to China.
    • That ship of trust, the cornerstone of public health work that the WHO should have been leading, has long set sail.
    • Protecting Tedros is important as the WHO needs money to help poor countries with weak health systems.

    Last year, UPSC asked about UNESCO when the US and Israel withdrew from it. This year, WHO has been in focus for allegedly towing China’s line.

    Issue of funding and spending by the WHO

    • War chests are being mobilised to help the WHO help China disburse aid and assistance to dying people and gasping economies.
    • The recent announcement by the World Bank to fast track $1.9 billion for health systems to respond to Covid-19 also includes Ethiopia.
    • For the first time in its history, the WHO has opened its doors to private funding via a Solidarity fund and China is expected to keep an eye on this.
    • To keep track of how the money is spent is a problem.

    Conclusion

    India must decide if it wants to blindly follow the blind or lead by bringing the WHO back to its original promise. At stake is the country’s economic security of which public health is a key component. India can either be a part of history or pick up the pen even in these times of distress and rewrite it.

  • Partnership with the private sector in a fight against Covid-19

    The article delineates five areas in which partnership with the private sector is essential to deal effectively with the epidemic and ensure a whole-of-society response. Ensuring the participation of the private sector has been the recurring theme of many op-eds we have come across after the outbreak.

    Significance of private healthcare in India

    • According to the WHO, a critical lesson from the 2014-16 West African Ebola epidemic was that both the public and private sector need to work in tandem in responding to large-scale epidemics.
    • In the COVID-19 response in India, the private sector has to play an even more important role, as it is the dominant provider of health services in the country.
    • The private sector includes the for-profit and not-for-profit segments.
    • The dominance of the private sector in India: The NSSO 71st round data on social consumption of health show that private hospitals, clinics and nursing homes provide over 70 per cent of healthcare.
    • Data on the nearly 1 crore treatments received under the Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (AB PM-JAY) corroborate this finding.
    • AB PM-JAY data shows that over half of all treatments are being availed of from private providers, accounting for over 60 per cent of total disbursements.

    UPSC asked about community-level healthcare intervention in 2018. So, pay attention to the significant role played by the private health sector in India.

    Following five are the areas in which cooperation with the private sector will be essential-

    1 Testing

    • Creating a large and accessible testing infrastructure is the first weapon in the armoury.
    • Countries like South Korea, Singapore, Germany and Japan have been successful at controlling the spread of COVDID-19 and reducing mortality through early detection and quick containment.
    • This has been possible only through widespread testing.
    • India has opened testing up to private labs.
    • Testing has been included under the AB PM-JAY as well.
    • We need to substantially expand testing capacity.
    • This cannot happen without the active participation of the private sector.

    2 Converting private hospitals into Covid-19-only hospitals

    • As the government deepens its containment efforts, the country will need to rapidly surge the numbers of quarantine units, isolation wards and ICU beds in COVID-19-only
    • It will also need to ensure increased and continued supply of essential medical products — from testing kits, masks and other PPEs to oxygen and ventilators.
    • According to a recent ICMR study, around five per cent of those infected will need intensive care and half of those in intensive care units will need mechanical ventilation.
    • These projections translate into large numbers that considerably exceed the capacity of the government health system.
    • Private hospitals with adequate infrastructure will need to convert in COVID-19-only hospitals.
    • There should be a clear policy framework of designated hospitals, reporting and referral systems and an appropriate payment system.
    • With many government facilities being converted into COVID-19-only hospitals, a large number of non-COVID-19 patients will need facilities and providers to take care of their other urgent, critical or continuing healthcare needs.
    • The AB PM-JAY has started a process to bring on board more hospitals to respond to such needs.

    3 Protecting healthcare workers

    • As more private providers join this fight, a major concern that will arise is keeping healthcare workers from becoming infected.
    • In addition to being at a high risk of contracting the virus, healthcare workers are also potential carriers.
    • Ensuring their protection is of paramount importance.
    • Increasing the production: Companies manufacturing essential medical products such as ventilators, masks will need to crank up their production.
    • Direct support from banks may be needed to keep production and supply chains going.

    4 The private sector has to support the ecosystem driving health system

    • The private sector will need to vigorously support the large ecosystem that drives the health system as the lockdown and ongoing epidemic restrict movement and normal economic activities.
    • Activities such as the production of essential drugs and medical products, logistics to maintain smooth supply need to not only continue but also accelerate.
    • Support for community activities such as night shelters and community kitchens will need to be strengthened.

    5 Collaborate to share knowledge on the epidemic

    • An adequate stage-wise response to the pandemic and its economic, social and political aftermath will require the rapid filling of the many knowledge gaps.
    • Government, private and not-for-profit research institutions need to collaborate to understand the nature of transmission of the virus.
    • They must understand the factors that slow its spread, the most at-risk communities, or the optimal quarantine period.

    In 2015, UPSC asked whether the private health sector could help bridge the gap in providing universal health coverage. A question can be asked based on the same theme but in reference to dealing with the pandemic.

    Conclusion

    The fight against COVID-19 is not a race to a hilltop. It involves the continuous management of an evolving public health crisis that threatens to spawn economic and social crises. These multiple dimensions will require a whole-of-society approach that goes beyond the government alone.

  • Government must fix an upper limit for fiscal deficit

    D. Subbarao in this article discusses how the government is facing the hard choice of choosing between saving lives and saving the economy. On the government’s response on economic front he argues that the government, unlike the rich countries should keep an upper limit on its spending because of the dangers involved in unrestricted spending.

    Why the dilemma is sharpest for India?

    • This dilemma is arguably the sharpest for India.
    • Because of our high population density and poor medical infrastructure, any laxity in prevention can result in a huge health disaster.
    • On the other hand, an extended lockdown will force millions into the margins of subsistence, push small and large firms alike into bankruptcy, seriously impair financial stability and land us in a humanitarian and economic disaster.

    Why is the relief package criticised as too little?

    • After the lockdown, the government announced a relief package amounting to 0.8 per cent of GDP, that’s been criticised as being too little.
    • From a study of a sample of countries, the latest issue of The Economist reports that India’s lockdown has been the most stringent while its fiscal relief package is the smallest in proportion to GDP.

    What could be the reasons for a cautious approach in the relief package?

    • A possible explanation for the government’s timid fiscal response may be the fear of spooking the market.
    • For years, every economist and analyst has been warning the government of the dire consequences of fiscal irresponsibility.
    • And that warning message must have been so hardwired into the government’s collective mind that it was unable to get over the mental overhang.

    We should be aware of the reasons from the macroeconomic point of view that force the government to limit its fiscal deficit. In this case, India government is exercising the caution owing to the same constraints.

    Uncertainties in the crisis

    • Uncertainty is a defining feature of every crisis.
    • During the global financial crisis, a big uncertainty around the world was about how much risk there was in the system, where it lay and who was bearing it.
    • The uncertainty of the corona crisis is much deeper.
    • There are far too many known unknowns not to speak of unknown unknowns.
    • Uncertainties in corona crisis: We just don’t know enough about the effectiveness of the lockdowns, the age and gender profile of susceptibility to the virus.
    • We also don’t know about the process of recovery, the tipping point if any for mass immunity, whether the virus will attack in waves.
    • And most importantly, when we might have a vaccine and a cure.
    • Governments are, for the large part, having to fly blind.

    Issues over relief and stimulus package

    • There are many issues to be decided and planned on the way forward.
    • A big issue will be an expenditure plan for relief during the crisis and stimulus after some normalcy is restored.
    • Borrow more spend more: Even the most ardent fiscal hawks are now agreed that the government needs to abandon its fiscal reticence, and borrow more and spend more.
    • Even the most extreme monetary purists are agreed that the RBI should fund the government borrowing by printing money.
    • Even the staunchest advocates of financial stability are agreed that more regulatory forbearance is necessary.
    • And virtually everyone is agreed on where additional spending should be directed.

    Debate on how much additionally the government should borrow

    • There is disagreement on how much additionally the government should borrow.
    • There are two opposing views in this regard, which are discussed below.
    • 1. Fiscal risk without preset fiscal deficit: One view is that the government should err on the side of taking a fiscal risk without any preset fiscal deficit number.
    • It should simply determine what needs to be done and borrow to that extent, acting as if there were no fiscal constraint at all.
    • In other words, act as per the diktat of the now famous three words — “whatever it takes”.
    • 2. Set a limit: An opposing view is “whatever it takes” is not an option for India.
    • Many analysts have estimated that just the loss of revenue due to the economic shutdown will take the combined fiscal deficit of the Centre and states beyond 10 per cent of GDP.
    • The borrow and spend programme will be in addition to the above loss.
    • Unlike rich countries, we can’t afford to ignore the risks of fiscal excess of that magnitude, no matter the compelling circumstances.
    • What are the risks involved? There will be a heavy price to pay down the road by way of inflation and exchange rate volatility.

    From the UPSC point of view you must pay attention to the both the arguments made here, question can be asked in UPSC based on the suggestions and their pros and cons. Both the arguments cited above have their merits and demerits.

    Way forward

    • It’s important to keep in mind that we have resources and capability in the near future should there be another wave of the virus later in the year.
    • It will be advisable for the government to fix an upper bound for fiscal deficit and operate within that. For now, the borrow and spend programme should be restricted to 2 per cent of GDP.

  • Making use of technology to trace Covid-19 cases

    The article argues for the greater adoption of technology in tracing the Covid-19. Taking a cue from the success of JAM and UPI, recently launched app Aarogya Setu could also be the next game-changer in the fight against the pandemic. However, there are several challenges that are also discussed here.

    Success story of domestic digital platforms

    • The success of two domestic digital payment platforms offers us an opportunity to show how the tracing of COVID-19 cases can be done at scale and with greater speed.
    • The JAM (Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile) trinity for DBTs (Direct Benefit Transfers) and UPI (Unified Payments Interface) have made India a technology leader in money transfers.
    • The JAM has lent efficiency to the transfer of funds to the needy.
    • It was drafted into action recently to channel payments to the more vulnerable who need help in dealing with the adverse economic consequences of the lockdown.
    • The UPI is emerging as a transaction vehicle of choice for all retail payments.
    • In March, 148 banks were on the UPI platform, helping process over 120 crore transactions worth over Rs 2 lakh crore.

    The success story of the UPI and JAM is important from the UPSC point of view. Riding on the success of these two, the Aarogya Setu could also become the third and help in the fight against the epidemic. So, we should be aware of the basics of its working and problems the app could face.

    How the Aarogya Setu works?

    • Widespread adoption is required: The success of India’s Aarogya Setu mobile application will depend on its widespread adoption.
    • Based on bluetooth technology: The app relies on bluetooth technology to map and deconstruct the contact history of individuals who may have come in contact with potential carriers of the coronavirus.
    • Exchange of information between apps: If two individuals are at the same place at the same time, their apps can exchange information-up to a maximum distance of about 15 feet.
    • Exchange of the above information is without the server knowing anything about it.
    • The app notifies users and authorities of individuals who are at risk.
    • Privacy safeguards: Some privacy safeguards have been put in place to ensure that individuals do not share personally identifiable information with each other but only with authorities — that too, in select cases.
    • A confidence-building measure would be to release the code for public scrutiny with the aim of further bolstering privacy standards.

    What are the possible challenges in the success of Aarogya Setu?

    • The distribution of the detection framework necessitates a rethink, beyond an app.
    • Issues with app download in India: Nandan Nilekani has underlined that app downloads in India are perhaps the most expensive compared to any other developed or fast-developing nation.
    • Despite the falling cost of data, Indian users consider several factors before downloading an app such as required storage space, the potential impact on battery and data usage.
    • Given India’s open internet, several publishers from across industries and geographies are vying for smartphone real estate.
    • Challenge involved: In such a situation, drawing attention to particular use-cases i.e. Aarogya Setu-howsoever urgent-is challenging.

    Following are the suggestions to overcome the shortcoming of the Aarogya Setu. Though they are for Aarogya Setu, we can apply these in other situations in which mobile technology bases app is used by the government in the larger public interest such as rescue operation or warnings in case of disaster.

    So, what could be the alternate strategy?

    • The alternative strategy involves using the reach of the other famous apps (for ex. Paytm) to do what we want to do i.e. tracing by delinking.
    • Delinking involves separating the technology we want to use for tracing (the backend) from the channels (the front end).
    • A fine-tuned backend can be pushed to, and used by, publishers (other apps) who already have the reach.
    • Similarity with UPI: This is akin to the UPI being used by several banks and technology firms for payment.
    • The government did build its frontend in the form of the BHIM (Bharat Interface for Money) app but mostly for signalling purposes.
    • In the current context, the government can consider using its own app for tracing and for additional use-cases such as passes and approvals for movement when the lockdown is gradually eased out.
    • It could even host other health-related features.
    • Expanding its ambit and making it a conduit like JAM will likely increase the incentive for people to embrace it.

    Limitations of using GPS and Bluetooth for tracing in India

    • Another area where improvisations are called for is the tooling for tracking.
    • While reports have indicated that the developers are using bluetooth for tracing and are also capturing GPS coordinates, both users and device manufacturers limit their usage of these technologies in favour of other optimisations.
    • Users are concerned with both data and battery usage while device manufacturers kill background jobs even if the publishers have sought and secured permissions from users.
    • These tendencies are pronounced on Android, the dominant mobile operating system in India.
    • What are the other options? In such a scenario, developers ought to think about using other techniques.
    • For instance, using cell tower data and WiFi identifiers to bolster tracing efforts.
    • This is especially important in a context where only a third of our population has smartphones and even fewer people have devices with bluetooth capability.
    • Even the recently announced Google-Apple partnership may not have meaningful results in this setting.

    Conclusion

    With the potential ramifications of COVID-19’s spread in India and across the globe, the nation’s recent history of technological successes and a government committed to agile governance, the pandemic presents an opportunity for the country to show its people and the world how technology is a force of good.

  • Using knowledge-era technology to bridge the urban-rural gap

    This article puts forward the idea of using knowledge-era technology to minimise the difference between rural and urban areas. In the first part, it elaborates the reasons and circumstances that led to the neglect of rural areas and development in urban areas. In the next part, the idea of using knowledge-era technologies to close the gaps between rural and urban areas is explored.

    Why Urbanisation is spreading and how it led to the neglect of rural areas?

    • Better opportunities: The tendency to migrate to urban areas has been a natural consequence of better opportunities that got created there — in contrast to life in rural areas becoming increasingly unsustainable.
    • Centralisation: The industrial-era dynamics that led to centralisation in support of mass production or massive scale-up was clearly a major one.
    • This, in turn, also led to the concentration of higher education/capacity building processes to urban centres where there was job growth, quite to the detriment of the much larger rural area.
    • Problems in education and training: The education and training environment became myopic, essentially meeting the manning requirements to run systems created by others.
    • Our education with its inherent problems led to little confidence in creating one’s own systems to address needs independent of others.
    • Demographic dividend: India’s importance grew primarily because of her demographic dividend and the large market that her people constituted and not because of the systems and technologies.
    • Neglect of rural India: Rural India suffered severe neglect in the process, probably as a result of poor job opportunities there and education having lost its role as an enabler of local development.
    • However, the country is learning to create systems and technologies to address her needs. The exercise is, by and large, urban-centric.

    UPSC asked about the quality of urban life in 2014, and the trends of labour migration in 2015. This article touched upon both of these themes.

    Using the knowledge-era technology to close the urban-rural gap

    • We are now in the knowledge era.
    • And knowledge-era technologies, in contrast to industrial-era technologies, promote democratisation (social media, for example) and facilitate decentralisation (work from home).
    • It should thus be possible for an adequately educated and trained youth residing in a rural domain to support a significant part of the manufacturing and service needs of urban areas.
    • Just as an urban youth can support a significant part of the knowledge and application needs in rural areas.
    • With technologies like additive manufacture, internet of things, and artificial intelligence, well-trained people can address needs in both urban and rural areas from wherever they are.
    • Thus, the knowledge era should, in principle, become a significant income leveller between the urban and rural domains, with a large rise in the overall national income.
    • As we focus on capacity building of rural youth, the opportunities in rural areas should, in principle, become higher than those in urban areas since the rural segment can now benefit from all three sectors of the economy- agriculture, manufacturing and services.

    The idea of “cillage”

    • In the knowledge era, with emphasis on capability and capacity building of rural youth in terms of holistic education, appropriate technology and enhanced livelihood, there is a possibility for a more balanced distribution of income as well as population.
    • This would, however, need knowledge bridges to be built between cities and villages, and the creation of an ecosystem which has been conceptualised as a “cillage” — a synergistic combination of city and village.
    • Bridging the knowledge gap between a city and a village would also bridge the income gap between the two.
    • This will also lead to a faster bridging of the gap between the average individual income in India and that in industrially advanced countries.
    • Democratisation promoted by knowledge technologies, if properly leveraged, can in principle reduce disparities, which, unfortunately, are on the rise today.

    How to realise the idea of cillage?

    • Integrated and holistic approach: Developing a “cillage” ecosystem would need a rooted and integrated approach to holistic education and research, technology development and management, as well as technology-enabled rural livelihood enhancement.
    • It would take a while for the rural youth to become empowered enough to convert the challenges into opportunities in rural areas.
    • The emergence of a new-age society is an inevitability.
    • How soon the rural domain can embrace it and how concurrently, comprehensively that can happen, is the real challenge.
    • That will decide whether India will gain in the knowledge era or lag as it did in the industrial era.

    Look at one more question from 2015-“Smart cities in India cannot sustain without smart villages. Discuss this statement in the backdrop of rural-urban integration”.  The ideas discussed here in this article help us to deal with such questions.

    Can Covid-19 speed up the realisation of cillage?

    • The process could also be seen as the migration of a set of experiences and skills to villages.
    • We can look at this as a potential two-way bridge for a new relationship between cities and villages.
    • It will be the bridge in which not all need to return to cities, but can rather meet the needs of cities as well as villages by remaining in villages.
    • Several initiatives will be needed to realise such a possibility.
    • Facilitating a number of new skills, technologies and support systems that can further leverage current capabilities of these people for starting a new enterprise would be important.
    • Immediate arrangements to facilitate their livelihood, and leveraging their present capabilities could help retain at least some of these people in villages.
    • It could trigger a faster movement towards an inevitable long-term equilibrium.
    • Going forward, we should take knowledge activities to a higher level so that the products and services created by these people become more competitive.
    • Looking at disruptive technologies for exploiting local opportunities should follow.

    Conclusion

    Given that the new normal after Covid-19 would, in any case, be quite different, the right course would be to channelise the stimulus caused by this crisis towards accelerating the shift to a new normal. This will not only help a more dispersed population, but will also reduce disparities and lead to faster growth of the economy.

  • How IS regroups and its threat to India

     

    IS has shown its ability to strike by regrouping and co-opting local affiliates be it the case of Ester Sunday attack in Sri Lanka or a recent attack on a  Gurudwara in Afghanistan. For India, the presence of sleeper cells and their links with the Islamic jihad group has internal security implications. We have covered an op-ed dealing with the Gurudwara attack and discussed the futility of the US-Taliban peace deal.

    Security threat of IS to India and South Asia

    • In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, there was speculation about the degree to which al-Qaeda had been able to make inroads in India.
    • In recent years, the focus has shifted to the IS.
    • The creation of an IS-Khorasan (IS-K) in early 2015 with a visible presence in Afghanistan-Pakistan, seemed to suggest that the group is now targeting South Asia.
    • The recent terror attack on a gurdwara in Kabul (March 25) was also claimed by the IS. The IS released a photograph of one of a resident of Kasargod in Kerala
    • According to India’s leading terrorism think-tank SATP (South Asia Terrorism Portal), 99 persons from India were confirmed to have joined the IS in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.

    Question about the ” Over-ground worker” of the terrorist organisation was asked by the UPSC in 2019.

    Close intelligence cooperation within and beyond South Asia

    • Last October, the NIA disclosed that it had arrested 127 IS sympathisers from across India since 2014, and the highest number of 33 were from Tamil Nadu.
    • The arrests by NIA were made throughout the country and not from a specific region.
    • This degree of spread is testimony to the close watch the Indian security agencies are maintaining concerning the IS.
    • One may conjecture that close intelligence cooperation has been established within and beyond South Asia.
    • The pattern that now obtains is that countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Afghanistan have their own internal surveillance in place to monitor the activities of the IS-K.

    Ability of IS to regroup and ally with a domestic affiliate

    • The IS has demonstrated a proclivity to re-group by co-opting or merging with credible domestic affiliates, even if they are little-known.
    • In Afghanistan, the IS-K has sought to position itself favourably in the factional tussle, and the Kabul gurdwara attack is seen as part of this murderous strategy.
    • Pakistan connection: Islamic terror groups in the Af-Pak region are deemed to be as credible as the support that they receive from the deep-state in Pakistan.
    • It is pertinent that the main accused in the Kabul gurdwara attack is Aslam Faroqi, a Pakistani national.

    Conclusion

    The ability of IS to co-opt a local affiliate makes it a credible threat for India where there is a significant presence of the sleeper cells. In the light of that threat India and the other affected nations will have to strive individually and collectively to foil such nefarious designs.

  • COVID-19 and the crumbling world order

    Theme of this article is the failure of the world order in mounting a collective fight against the epidemic that has become the global problem. Role of WHO has also come under the scanner. Functioning and reluctance of UNSC to discuss the pandemic have raised questions over its relevance. The issue of China’s growing influence and implications for the rest of the world are being discussed. In the past week, some newspaper articles have covered the same issue for instance-“The deep void in global leadership” in the Hindu.

    Failure of the world order and global institutions

    • The contemporary global order and institutions were a hegemonic exercise meant to deal with isolated political and military crises and not serve humanity at large.
    • COVID-19 has exposed this as well as the worst nativist tendencies of the global leadership in the face of a major crisis.
    • That the United Nations Security Council took so long to meet (that too inconclusively) to discuss the pandemic is a ringing testimony to the UN’s insignificance.

    The above para. indicates that global order we are living in was made for entirely different purpose i.e. to maintain the peace and they are not capable to deal with the Covid-19  like challenges. So, from UPSC mains point of view you must take note of this.

    Failure of regional groupings

    • Regional institutions haven’t fared any better.
    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s SAARC initiative, curiously resurrecting a practically dead institution, was short-lived.
    • The EU, the most progressive post-national regional arrangement, stood clueless when the virus spread like wildfire in Europe.
    • Its member states turned inward for solutions: self-help, not regional coordination, was their first instinct. Brussels is the loser.

    What these failures indicate?

    • These failures are indicative of a deeper malaise: the global institutional framework is unrepresentative, a pawn in the hands of the great powers, cash-strapped, and its agenda is focused on high-table security issues.
    • The global institutional architecture of the 1940s cannot help humanity face the challenges of the 2020s.
    • What can be the solutions? Nothing less than a new social contract between states and the international system can save our future.

    Here we come across  the reasons for the failure of the world order and institutions. UPSC has asked questions related to UNESCO in 2019, who knows next could be the WHO.

    Factors that will help China come out stronger from the pandemic

    • Reports indicate that China has now managed the outbreak of COVID-19, and its industrial production is recovering even as that of every other country is taking a hit.
    • The oil price slump will make its recovery even faster.
    • When the greatest military power found itself in denial mode and the members of the EU were looking after their own interests, China appeared to use its manufacturing power to its geopolitical advantage.
    • Beijing has offered medical aid and expertise to those in need; it has increased cooperation with its arch-rival Japan.
    • This will aid Beijing’s claims to global leadership, push Huawei 5G trials as a side bargain, and showcase how the Belt and Road Initiative is the future of global connectivity.
    • COVID-19 will further push the international system into a world with Chinese characteristics.

    As China comes to dominate the emerging world order, we must pay attention to things related to China. Here, we can note down the factors that could help China emerge out stronger from the corona crisis.

    Implications for globalisation: the rise of protectionism and hypernationalism

    • Neoliberal economic globalisation will have taken a major beating in the wake of the pandemic.
    • Economists are warning of a global recession.
    • How the world reacted? The first instinct of every major economy was to close borders, look inwards and
    • The pre-existing structural weakness of the global order and the COVID-19 shock will further feed states’ protectionist tendencies fueled by hypernationalism.
    • A more inclusive global political and economic order is unlikely any time soon, if ever.
    • Instead, as former National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon warns, “we are headed for a poorer, meaner, and smaller world.”
    • How this epidemic impact big corporations? The ability of big corporations to dictate the production, stocks, supply chains and backup plans will be limited by increased state intervention to avoid unpredictable supply sources, avoid geopolitically sensitive zones, and national demands for emergency reserves.
    • The profits of big corporations will reduce, and the demand for stability will increase.
    • Will the world after Covid-19 be more balance? State intervention in economic matters and protectionism are the easy way out, and that’s precisely what states will do once the crisis is over.
    • It would be a return of the ‘Licence Raj’ through the backdoor, not a push for inclusive and responsible globalisation with its associated political benefits.

    It is clear now that post-Covid-19 world would be different from the world we know today. Globalisation would take a significant beating. And globalisation is important topic from mains point of view. So, pay close attention to the points mentioned here.

    Will post-Covid-19 world lead to some positive controls?

    • Rise of state-led models: With the severe beating that globalisation has taken, state-led models of globalisation and economic development would be preferred over (big) corporates-led globalisation.
    • Will this enable some positive controls over the inherent deficiencies of globalisation? We will have to wait and see.
    • The relation between capitalists and the states: But the more important question is whether the state has any incentive to take on big capital.
    • Given the symbiotic relationship between the state and big capital, states have become used to protecting the interests of their corporations, often at the cost of the general public.
    • States preferred capital over health: Consider, for instance, that the first response of many Western states was to protect their capital markets than be concerned about public health.

    Rise of racism in post-Covid-19 world

    • Yet another undesirable outcome of the pandemic would be a spike in various forms of discrimination.
    • Globally, societies could become more self-seeking and inward-looking leading to further pushback against liberal policies regarding migration and refugees.
    • Implications for world trade: New questions are likely to be asked about the source of goods. More stringent imposition of phytosanitary measures by advanced states on products emanating from the less developed countries might become the new normal.
    • Lockdowns and travel restrictions could potentially legitimise the rhetoric around border walls in more conservative countries.
    • Tragically, therefore, while one answer to global pandemics is political globalisation, COVID-19 might further limit it.

    Conclusion

    The world order needs to wake up to new reality take measures to avoid the above listed undesired fallouts that could emerge in the post-Covid-19 world, and before that there is an urgent need for the global coalition to deal with the pandemic.