GS Paper: GS2-18.Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

What’s the news?

• India Shines at the G-20 Summit, Champions Multilateralism and Multipolarity

Central idea

• The recent G-20 summit held in India, especially the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration (NDLD), has reaffirmed the vitality of multilateralism on the global stage. Despite challenges, India’s diplomatic efforts, rooted in its principles of multilateralism, multipolarity, and the middle way, bore fruit at the summit.

“In a world that often resembles a dysfunctional global family, India’s diplomatic approach at the G-20 serves as a beacon of hope for effective global governance.” UN Secretary-General António Guterres

Multilateralism: The Key Driver

• Concessions for Consensus:

• The commitment to uphold multilateralism was pivotal in achieving consensus at the G-20. The Western bloc, including G-7 countries, the European Union, and allies like Australia and South Korea, made significant concessions by agreeing to omit direct references to Russia in paragraphs concerning the Ukraine conflict.
• This collaborative approach was driven by the shared goal of preserving the G-20 as a crucial platform for global cooperation.

• Preservation of the G-20:

• The absence of a joint declaration would have cast doubt on the G-20’s future, potentially leading to fragmentation into distinct blocs, including the G-7 and BRICS.
• The G-7 and BRICS had already expressed their positions on the Ukraine conflict. Thus, achieving consensus at the G-20 reinforced its relevance as a forum encompassing diverse perspectives.

• Role of Developing Nations:

• The Troika-Plus, consisting of Indonesia, India, Brazil, and South Africa, all of which are hosting or future hosts of the G-20, played a crucial role in formulating a winning approach to the Ukraine issue.
• This highlighted the multilateral heft of emerging economies and their contribution to consensus-building.

India’s Support for a Multipolar World

• India’s Advocacy: India’s consistent support for a multipolar world order stood out at the G-20. In a world where the U.S. pursued unipolarity, China aimed for bipolarity, and India championed multipolarity, India’s stance gained prominence.
• Global Shifts:

• The recent history of international relations saw the U.S. temporarily withdraw from various multilateral agreements and organizations during the Trump era, causing concern about a potential decline in U.S. global leadership.
• China’s rapid ascent brought both influence and unease due to its actions during the COVID-19 pandemic and aggressive behavior toward neighboring countries, including India.

• The Rise of the Global South:

• The Global South, comprising over 125 countries, emerged as a potent voice in global affairs. Despite disparities in wealth, the Global South’s collective influence reshaped global priorities in areas such as development, climate change, health, and digital access.
• India’s active involvement with the Global South, including its membership in the African Union, bolstered its position at the G-20.

The Middle Way: A Key to India’s Diplomatic Success

• India’s Tradition:

• India’s diplomatic success at the G-20 can be attributed to its long-standing tradition of eschewing alliances and pursuing a middle path in global disputes.
• This approach sometimes requires making compromises, such as maintaining ties with Russia and not inviting Ukraine’s president to address the G-20.
• However, it positions India as a bridge between the Global South and North, East and West.

• A Balancing Act: In a polarized world, the role of bridging divides is indispensable. India’s ability to balance between diverse interests makes it a valuable mediator and consensus-builder on the global stage.

Conclusion

• The G-20 summit in India exemplified the enduring importance of multilateralism, multipolarity, and the middle way in diplomacy. India’s success in fostering consensus and maintaining the unity of the G-20 underscores the significance of these principles in addressing global challenges.

Also read:

India’s G20 Presidency: Embracing Inclusivity, Ambition, and Action

Central idea

• Relations between India and Canada have reached a new low, with allegations of Canadian leniency towards Khalistani supporters and accusations of India’s involvement in a recent killing. This isn’t a recent issue but a longstanding tension that dates back to the mid-20th century. The modern-day discord between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over Khalistani extremism has exacerbated these historical strains.

Historical Roots of Khalistan Movement in Canada

• Establishment of Khalistan Office: Surjan Singh Gill established the ‘Khalistan government in exile’ office in Vancouver in 1982, issuing Khalistani passports and currency.
• Militancy’s Impact: The militancy in Punjab in the early 1980s had repercussions in Canada, leading to the emergence of organizations like the International Sikh Youth Federation (ISYF), the Babbar Khalsa, and the World Sikh Organisation.
• Air India Kanishka Bombing: The Babbar Khalsa orchestrated the bombing of Air India Kanishka in 1985, resulting in 331 civilian deaths.

Recent Developments

• Strained Relations: Relations between India and Canada have deteriorated due to Canada’s alleged leniency toward Khalistani supporters. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of involvement in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, designated as a terrorist by India, in Surrey in June.
• Tensions Over Khalistan: Tensions related to Khalistan extremism have been ongoing for years, with Trudeau’s appointment of Sikh ministers in 2015 sparking controversy and accusations of his proximity to Khalistan sympathizers.
• Incidents Fueling Tensions: Various incidents, such as the refusal of meetings by Punjab Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh and Trudeau’s cool reception during his India visit, have exacerbated the India-Canada rift.
• Report on Sikh Extremism: Canada released a report in 2018 mentioning ‘Sikh extremism’ and Khalistan as threats, but later revised the report, removing these references, which caused further strain.
• Alliance with NDP: In March 2022, Trudeau’s Liberal Party formed an alliance with the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, who openly endorsed the Khalistan Referendum on Canadian soil.
• G20 Summit Concerns: During the recent G20 summit in New Delhi, PM Modi expressed strong concerns about continuing anti-India activities of extremist elements in Canada.

Sikh Community’s Influence

• Political Influence: Canada’s Sikh community, constituting approximately 2 percent of the population, has gained significant political influence. This is evident through the election of Sikh Members of Parliament and their active involvement in Canadian politics.
• Representation in Canadian Parliament: Sikh Canadians have been elected to important political positions, including Members of Parliament. In 2019, there were 18 Sikh MPs in the Canadian parliament, surpassing the number of Sikh MPs in India.
• Cultural Impact: Sikh festivals, notably Vaisakhi, are widely celebrated in Canada and have become integral to the country’s multicultural tapestry.
• Social Activism: Sikh organizations in Canada are known for their social and humanitarian initiatives, including providing free meals (langar) to those in need. This commitment to community welfare is a notable aspect of their influence.
• Business and Economic Contributions: Sikh Canadians have made significant contributions to Canada’s business and economic landscape, with many Sikh-owned businesses playing key roles in the country’s economy.

Changing Political Landscape

• Varied Responses: Canada’s stance on the Khalistan movement has shifted over the years, with some governments engaging with Khalistanis while others sought reconciliation with India.
• Strong Relations under Stephen Harper: During Stephen Harper’s tenure as Canadian PM, Canada and India enjoyed strong relations, marked by high-level visits and agreements.
• Efforts at Reconciliation: Both the Modi and Harper governments initially made efforts toward reconciliation, including removing individuals from blacklists and engaging with radicals.

Consequences and Perspectives

• Impact on Bilateral Relations: The tensions related to Khalistan have strained India-Canada bilateral relations, affecting diplomatic interactions and cooperation in various areas such as trade, counter-terrorism, and education.
• Security Concerns: Both countries have expressed concerns about the presence and activities of Khalistani extremists on their respective soils, which have led to heightened security measures and intelligence sharing.
• Asylum Claims: The increase in asylum claims by Indian nationals in Canada, particularly from Punjab, is seen as a consequence of the Khalistan-related tensions. This has created a complex immigration challenge for Canadian authorities.
• Shift in Focus: The article suggests that Canada’s focus on Khalistan has sometimes overshadowed other important aspects of the bilateral relationship, potentially hampering broader cooperation.
• Changing Perceptions: The research paper mentioned in the article indicates that interest in the Khalistan movement in Canada is waning, especially among younger generations. This shift in perceptions could impact the future of the movement.

Way Forward

• Diplomatic Engagement: The way forward in resolving the tensions related to Khalistan may involve sustained diplomatic engagement and dialogue between India and Canada to address each other’s concerns and find common ground.
• Counter-Terrorism Cooperation: Both countries can enhance their cooperation on counter-terrorism measures, intelligence sharing, and law enforcement efforts to counter any extremist activities effectively.
• Community Outreach: Canadian authorities can engage with the Sikh community to better understand their concerns and perspectives while ensuring that Canada’s commitment to multiculturalism and diversity is respected.
• Balanced Foreign Policy: Canada can aim for a balanced foreign policy that addresses the aspirations of its Sikh community while maintaining strong diplomatic relations with India, a significant global partner.
• Promotion of Dialogue: Encouraging dialogue and understanding among different communities and advocacy groups within Canada can contribute to peaceful coexistence and reduce tensions related to Khalistan.
• Addressing Root Causes: Exploring the root causes of extremism and radicalization within the Sikh community and working together to address them can be a proactive step toward preventing future tensions.

Conclusion

• The enduring strain in India-Canada relations over Khalistan remains a complex issue rooted in historical events and contemporary political dynamics. Resolving these tensions will require nuanced diplomacy and a deeper understanding of the evolving nature of the Khalistan movement within Canada.

Also read:

Khalistani Movement in Canada

What’s the news?

• The 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) of the UNFCCC is scheduled to take place in Dubai from November 30 to December 12.

Central idea

• The upcoming COP28 of the UNFCCC has put forth a bold proposal to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. This aspiration is echoed in the G-20 declaration, albeit in a less committed manner. While the idea of such a target is appealing, a deeper examination raises significant concerns.

Current State of Renewable Energy Capacity

• As of 2021, renewable energy sources (RES) accounted for 39% of the global installed capacity for electricity generation, totaling 3026 gigawatts (GW). However, their contribution to total electricity generation stood at only 28%.
• Among RES, hydropower constituted over half, with solar and wind energy contributing about 36%.
• To achieve the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, we would need to add approximately 6,000 GW of RES capacity, primarily from solar and wind sources.

Regional Disparities

• Electricity demand growth varies significantly among countries at different stages of development.
• Developing nations like China and India experience rapid electricity demand growth, with annual consumption rates of 6.6% and 6.3%, respectively, between 2010 and 2019.
• In contrast, the European Union (EU) saw a decline of 0.3%, and the United States experienced minimal 0.12% growth.
• Only 21% of electricity in the U.S. is sourced from RES, including hydro and biomass. In the EU, 37% of electricity comes from RES.
• The U.S. would need only about 26 GW of new RE capacity to meet additional demand. Its share of the global tripling target of 6000 GW by 2030 would be a mere 0.4%.
• In contrast, India would require about 717 GW of RE capacity, constituting a 12% share of the target.

Challenges in achieving the goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity

• Timeline for Capacity Addition: Tripling renewable energy (RE) capacity by 2030 presents a significant challenge in terms of the timeline for constructing and operationalizing renewable energy projects.
• Scale of Electricity Generation: Achieving the target of tripling RE capacity would require generating approximately 13,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity from renewable sources alone.
• Global Electricity Demand Growth: Global electricity demand has been growing at an average rate of 2.6% (pre-COVID-19 decade average). Meeting the tripling target implies that renewable energy would need to account for 38% of total global electricity production. Sustaining such growth in renewable energy production in line with demand is a complex task.

What are the issues with the global RES target?

• Lack of Transparency in Origin: The origin of the global RES target proposed at COP28 lacks transparency. It appears to draw inspiration from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), but without clear documentation.
• Inequitable Regional Distribution: The proposed target, as per the IRENA analysis, suggests that most of the non-RES capacity to be added by 2030 would be in developing regions.
• Absolute Projections vs. Relative Targets: Absolute projections of installed RES capacity may not align with the growth in energy demand. Relative targets, which are less dependent on demand growth matching expectations, are considered more flexible and robust.
• Dependency on Non-RES Capacity: Achieving a substantial increase in RES capacity may require corresponding non-RES capacity for grid stability and reliable energy supply.
• Lack of Viable Storage Options: There is currently a lack of viable storage options at the scale envisioned by ambitious RES targets. Energy storage is essential to ensuring a stable energy supply when renewable sources are not generating electricity.
• Challenges in Building National Grids: Scaling up RES capacity to such high levels would require extensive national grid development. Finding the necessary resources for these grids is challenging, particularly given the existing difficulties in meeting climate finance targets.
• Targets for Developed Nations: The most vocal proponents of the global RES target do not have corresponding domestic targets. For instance, while India has committed to ambitious goals internationally, countries like the United States and the European Union lack absolute targets domestically. Their targets are often market signals rather than government-intervened commitments.

Way forward

• Transparent Origin of Targets: Ensure transparency in the origin and basis of global renewable energy targets, such as those proposed at COP28. Clearly communicate how and why these targets were formulated.
• Equitable Distribution of Responsibility: Advocate for an equitable sharing of responsibility among nations. Developed countries should commit to absolute domestic targets that align with their global climate commitments.
• Relative Targets: Consider using relative targets alongside absolute targets. Relative targets are less dependent on specific demand growth projections, providing greater flexibility.
• Support for Developing Nations: Provide financial and technical assistance to developing countries to help them meet their renewable energy targets. This includes support for grid development, energy storage, and renewable energy infrastructure.
• Fossil Fuel Phase-Out: Encourage developed nations to accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuel-based electricity production. This step is vital for reducing carbon emissions and creating space for renewable energy capacity.
• Investment in Energy Storage: Invest in research, development, and deployment of energy storage solutions at the scale required by ambitious renewable energy targets. Reliable energy storage is essential for grid stability.
• Climate Finance Commitments: Commit to fulfilling climate finance targets, including the annual $100 billion target, to support climate-related projects across sectors, including renewable energy.
• Policy Alignment: Align domestic policies with international climate agreements, such as the Paris Agreement. Governments should implement policies that promote renewable energy growth and the phase-out of fossil fuels.

Conclusion

• As COP28 approaches, developing nations, especially India, should endorse the global tripling of the RES capacity target only if developed nations commit to absolute, equitable, and commensurate targets domestically. Achieving equity in responsibility is crucial to the success of the global renewable energy transition.

What’s the news?

• India’s 18th G20 Summit, held under the dynamic leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, made history by admitting the African Union (AU) into the G20.

Central idea

• The addition of the African Union as the 21st member brings substantial weight to the G20. It significantly enhances the G20’s global economic and financial governance. With Africa’s representation, the G20 becomes a more inclusive and influential body, covering a vast portion of the world’s population, GDP, and trade.

Africa’s Stake and Strength

• Stake in G20 Inclusion:
• Representation: Africa’s inclusion in the G20 through the African Union (AU) provides the continent with a significant voice and presence in global economic and financial governance.
• Global Economic Impact: Africa’s inclusion in the G20 is notable because it represents the continent’s growing economic influence. Africa possesses substantial resources, including agricultural land, minerals, metals (including rare earth minerals), and a young workforce.
• Developmental Challenges: Africa faces numerous developmental challenges, including widespread poverty, conflict, political instability, climate stress, environmental degradation, and socioeconomic devastation from various crises. These challenges underscore the importance of Africa’s participation in the G20 for addressing global public goods (GPGs) and development issues.
• Strengths Leveraged in the G20:
• Resource Abundance: Africa’s wealth of natural resources positions it as a significant contributor to G20 discussions on resource utilization, sustainable development, and global economic growth.
• Economic Integration: Africa’s ongoing economic and political integration, including initiatives like the African Free Trade Area and “Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want,” demonstrate its commitment to becoming an economic powerhouse.
• Demographic Advantage: Africa’s large and youthful population presents opportunities for future global economic growth and trade partnerships.
• Alignment with Global Goals: Africa’s role in achieving global goals, particularly the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), underscores its importance within the G20 for coordinated efforts to meet these goals.

Benefits of the AU’s inclusion in the G20

• Enhanced Representation and Credibility: The AU’s inclusion makes the G20 more representative and enhances its credibility as a global decision-making body.
• Effective Policy Implementation: AU’s participation is expected to improve the implementation of G20 policies, programs, measures, principles, and initiatives.
• African Voice and Influence: The AU’s presence provides Africa with a voice, participation, and leadership role at the global high table, enabling African countries to influence the global agenda and priorities.
• Cooperation and Leveraging Resources: The AU’s inclusion fosters cooperation within the G20 and allows for the mutual leveraging of Africa’s abundant resources for the benefit of all member nations.

Strategic Benefits for India

• Deepened Partnerships: India can strengthen its strategic, political, economic, technological, trade, and people-to-people partnerships with African nations. AU’s inclusion provides India with a unique opportunity to foster deeper relationships across various sectors.
• Regional and Sub-Regional Engagement: India can engage with African countries on both regional and sub-regional levels. This enables India to extend its influence and cooperation beyond individual nations and into larger African regions.
• Collaboration with Like-Minded Partners: India can collaborate with like-minded partners from the North, such as Japan and the United States, to further its interests in Africa. These partnerships can lead to joint initiatives and investments in the continent.
• Diplomatic Trust: Prime Minister Modi’s successful efforts to secure the AU’s inclusion in the G20 have earned the trust and gratitude of African nations. This trust can translate into diplomatic goodwill and cooperation on various global issues.
• A Counterbalance: The AU’s presence in the G20 can serve as a counterbalance to China’s efforts to influence African countries, especially in matters related to UN Security Council reform. India’s alignment with African interests can bolster its position.
• Economic Opportunities: Africa’s economic growth and integration present opportunities for Indian businesses to invest and trade in the region. India can leverage its participation in the G20 to facilitate economic engagement with African partners.
• Global Influence: By actively engaging with African nations within the G20, India can enhance its global influence and stature as a country that promotes inclusive development and cooperation.

G20’s global mission

• Conclusion Global Economic and Financial System: The G20 plays a pivotal role in shaping the global economic, financial, and monetary system. It strives to establish a framework that is fair and adheres to established rules and principles.
• Providing Global Public Goods (GPGs): The G20 is committed to providing global public goods, which can encompass shared resources, technologies, and knowledge that benefit all nations. These may include international tax packages and initiatives in areas like digital health.
• Addressing Global Public Bads (GPBs): Beyond providing public goods, the G20 addresses global public bads—issues and threats that transcend national borders. This involves taking concerted actions against challenges such as money laundering, counterterrorism financing, and other transnational risks.
• Supporting Developing Countries:

• A significant aspect of the G20’s mission is to create a level playing field for developing countries. It involves taking affirmative measures to assist those nations facing the most significant challenges.
• Key areas of focus include reforming Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), providing stimulus for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), financing initiatives related to green development and climate transition, issuing Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) during crises, and addressing food security and supply chain disruptions.

Conclusion

• Admitting the African Union into the G20 during India’s presidency is a historic achievement that enhances the G20’s credibility and inclusivity. AU’s inclusion adds a valuable perspective to the G20’s discussions and decisions, making it a more powerful and representative body on the world stage.

 

Central idea

• The G20 summit attracted attention as it started with a clear consensus to invite the African Union (AU) as its member. India’s initiative to include African Union in G20 was unanimously accepted. This was a unique reordering of the global high table.

India’s efforts for inclusion of the African Union

• India’s big bet: Of the AU’s 55 members, 54 are in the United Nations. Only one African country, South Africa, has been an original member of the G20. No presidency has ever risked amending the membership for fear of competing rivalries.
• Global platform for Africa: It has been India’s case that not only must the G20 reflect the priorities of the Global South but must also include those who are underrepresented, particularly from Africa.
• Inviting major African countries: The AU has double the number of countries as the EU. The AU has been invited to G20 meetings, and some presidencies have held African outreach events in a manner of telling them what is good for them. It is India that has actually taken the initiative of talking with them rather than at them.

Importance of AU

• Africa as the road to the global south: India aspires to bring the global south to the center of the G20 agenda. The elevation of the AU is courageous; no presidency has attempted to alter the composition for fear of claims from other regional organizations.
• Branding itself using Africa: The AU fits in with the rebranding of the G20 that India undertook. This is India’s harambee (Swahili word for co-operation) factor—the spirit of developmental cooperation in action.
• AU as a voiceless block: The AU is the largest of regional institutions and the one with a limited voice in most international fora, despite having 54 votes in the United Nations General Assembly.
• Partner for India at the High Table: The prospects of Africa getting a permanent seat in the UN Security Council remain distant. What India has achieved, as always, is to provide Africa with a voice at the high table.

India’s engagement with Arican Nations

• Nigeria: Inviting Nigeria, particularly at this stage, recognizes it as the largest economy in Africa and a consistent friend of India. This is Nigeria’s biggest outing since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was elected. Nigeria was qualified to be in the BRICS but perhaps did not pursue it hard enough. Nigeria participated with great enthusiasm, with a number of ministers accompanying their president in advance of the G20 Summit.
• Egypt: Egypt is another African powerhouse, representing North Africa. It is also the current chair of AU-NEPAD, which is a permanent invitee to the G20. Egypt is a recent strategic partner of India. India backed it to join the BRICs. Egypt brings balance to the presence of South Africa and Nigeria.
• Mauritius: Mauritius is a close friend of India due to its PIO population, its regular engagement with India, and its strategic location in the Indian Ocean.
• Comoros: Comoros is another Indian Ocean country representing Eastern Africa. With their participation, India ensured two of the four African countries in the Indian Ocean and most of the regions of Africa were represented, making the G20 better balanced.

Conclusion

• The African Union is hot bed for great power rivalry between India and China. Even if India cannot match the deep pockets of Chinese investments in Africa, India has shown that it can deliver on the African Interest at global platform.