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GS Paper: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

  • Mapping: Pangong Tso Lake

    Helicopters of the Chinese Army came close to the border during the face-off with the Indian Army near Pangong Tso Lake in Eastern Ladakh last week.

    Keep a watch on some facts related to the Pangong Tso Lake like nearby rivers, passes, Ramsar status etc.

    Aircraft restricted near LAC

    • As per existing agreements between India and China, operation of fighter aircraft and armed helicopters is restricted to a distance from the LAC.
    • According to the Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the LAC in India-China Border Area’ of 1996 combat aircraft (to include fighter, bomber, reconnaissance, military trainer, armed helicopter and other armed aircraft) shall not fly within 10 km of the LAC.

    Pangong Tso Lake

    • Pangong Tso or Pangong Lake is an endorheic lake in the Himalayas situated at a height of about 4,350 m.
    • It is 134 km long and extends from India to the Tibetan Autonomous Region, China.
    • Approximately 60% of the length of the lake lies within the Tibetan Autonomous Region.
    • The lake is 5 km wide at its broadest point. All together it covers 604 sq.km.
    • During winter the lake freezes completely, despite being saline water.
    • It is not a part of the Indus river basin area and geographically a separate landlocked river basin.
    • Formerly, Pangong Tso had an outlet to Shyok River, a tributary of Indus River, but it was closed off due to natural damming.
    • The lake is in the process of being identified under the Ramsar Convention as a wetland of international importance.
    • This will be the first trans-boundary wetland in South Asia under the convention.

    Back2Basics: India-China Border Dispute

    The India-China borders disputes exist between three regions:

    1) J&K region

    • The Aksai Chin sector which originally was a part of the state of Jammu and Kashmir is claimed by China as part of its autonomous Xinjiang region.
    • After the 1962 war, it is administered by China. It is the second-largest Indo-China border area covering over 38000 sq. km. However, it is uninhabited land.
    • While India claims the entire Aksai Chin territory as well as the Shaksgam valley (Indian Territory gifted to China by Pakistan), China contests Indian control over Daulat Beg Oldi (a tehsil in Leh south of Aksai China-it is believed to host the world’s highest airstrip).

    2) Sikkim region

    • China has recognised India’s sovereignty over Sikkim and had initiated the trade at Nathu La pass.
    • However, this is the region where the Doklam standoff took place.

    3) Arunachal Pradesh Region

    • The Arunachal Pradesh border that China still claims to be its own territory is the largest disputed area, covering around 90000 sq. km.
    • It was formally called North-East Frontier Agency.
    • During the 1962 war, the People’s Liberation Army occupied it but they announced a unilateral ceasefire and withdrew respecting the international boundary (Mcmahon Line).
    • However, it has continued to assert its claim over the territory.

  • Mapping: Islands in the Pacific

    Approximately four months after COVID-19 was first detected, the South Pacific Islands have not yet reported any cases of the infectious disease.

    Closely observe the map. Note important islands. UPSC may shift its traditional focus from middle east/central asia to this region. These days, Pacific and Indo-Pacific region carry a decent importance.

    We can expect MCQs asking to arrange these islands in north-south / east-west direction.

    Which South Pacific islands have recorded cases of COVID-19?

    • Fiji recorded its first case of COVID-19 on March 19.
    • Guam, a territory of the US in the South Pacific, witnessed an outbreak among the staff of the US navy.
    • New Caledonia also recorded its first COVID-19 cases in mid-March, with links to overseas travel.
    • The Solomon Islands, the Cook Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, the Marshall Islands, Palau and Nauru have no recorded cases of COVID-19.

    What impact will COVID-19 have on Pacific island nations?

    • A widespread outbreak of COVID-19 will have a disastrous impact on these island nations.
    • Although these islands are popular with tourists, the outer islands and rural villages are home to indigenous populations.
    • Most of these areas have a very basic infrastructure for healthcare, with larger hospitals and medical centres located in bigger towns.
    • Even in everyday circumstances, these small medical centres struggle due to the lack of medical supplies.
    • The socio-cultural factors, like the prevalence of large families in this region, also make the individuals susceptible to community transmission.
    • There is also a lack of access to running water, making sanitation difficult.
    • Environmental factors like the seasonal tropical cyclone that swept through the region in April, led to the displacement of hundreds of people in the Solomon Islands, Fiji, Vanuatu and Tonga.

  • [pib] Mission SAGAR

    As part of India’s outreach amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, ships have departed for Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, Madagascar and Comoros, to provide Food Items, COVID related Medicines including HCQ Tablets and Medical Assistance Teams under Mission Sagar.

    Mission SAGAR, unlike other missions, can create confusion with the name and its purpose. Make note of such special cases. UPSC can ask such questions as one liner MCQs.

    Mission SAGAR

    • As part of the mission, INS Kesari would enter the Port of Male in the Republic of Maldives, to provide them 600 tons of food provisions.
    • The deployment is in consonance with the PMs vision of Security and Growth for All in the Region ‘SAGAR’.
    • This deployment is in line with India’s role as the first responder in the region and builds on the excellent relations existing between these countries to battle the COVID-19 pandemic and its resultant difficulties.
    • The operation is being progressed in close coordination with the Ministries of Defence and External Affairs, and other agencies of the govt.

    Back2Basics

    SAGAR Programme (Security and Growth for All in the Region)

    • SAGAR is a term coined by PM Modi in 2015 during his Mauritius visit with a focus on the blue economy.
    • It is a maritime initiative which gives priority to the Indian Ocean region for ensuring peace, stability and prosperity of India in the Indian Ocean region.
    • The goal is to seek a climate of trust and transparency; respect for international maritime rules and norms by all countries; sensitivity to each other`s interests; peaceful resolution of maritime issues; and increase in maritime cooperation.
    • It is in line with the principles of the Indian Ocean Rim Association.

    IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association)

    • Established in 1997 in Ebene Cyber City, Mauritius.
    • First established as Indian Ocean Rim Initiative in Mauritius on March 1995 and formally launched in 1997 by the conclusion of a multilateral treaty known as the Charter of the IORA for Regional Cooperation.
    • It is based on the principles of Open Regionalism for strengthening Economic Cooperation particularly on Trade Facilitation and Investment, Promotion as well as Social Development of the region.

  • Study on China dams brings the Brahmaputra into focus

    A new study highlighting the impact of China’s dams on the Mekong River has raised fresh questions on whether dams being built on other rivers that originate in China, such as the Brahmaputra, may similarly impact countries downstream.

    Make a note of:

    1) Tributaries of R. Brahmaputra

    2) Countries swept by R. Mekong

    3) Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (reminds us seeing R. Mekong)

    China’s dams on the Mekong River

    • The Mekong flows from China to Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam.
    • The Mekong River Commission, which comprises Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam, has said more scientific evidence was needed to establish whether dams caused a 2019 drought.
    • While China’s southwestern Yunnan province which usually has above-average rainfall, there was “severe lack of water in the lower Mekong.

    Mekong dams raise some questions

    • The Mekong study was not conclusive on the question of how China’s dams had affected the quantity of flows.
    • To state that the basin had less water because of activities in China alone is misleading, mainly because that only considers the water flowing into the lower basin at one station in Thailand.
    • The study did not consider other dams and water-use along the course of the river.
    • The lower basin isn’t entirely dependent on flows from China but also receives water from tributaries in all four countries, which the study did not account for.

    Concerns for India

    • India does not have a water-sharing agreement with China, but both sides share hydrological data.
    • India has long expressed concerns over dam-building on the Brahmaptura.
    • In 2015, China operationalised its first hydropower project at Zangmu, while three other dams at Dagu, Jiexu and Jiacha are being developed.
    • India need to raise the issue of river waters in the Brahmaputra with China, as that appears to be the only methodology to ensure what happened on Mekong does not happen on Brahmaputra.

    A management problem

    • The dams are not likely to impact the quantity of the Brahmaputra’s flows because they are only storing water for power generation.
    • Moreover, the Brahmaputra is not entirely dependent on upstream flows and an estimated 35% of its basin is in India.
    • However, India concerns more about activity in China affecting quality, ecological balance, and flood management.

  • Afghan peace and India’s elbow room

    The article discusses India’s exclusion from the Afghan peace process. As India seeks to fight back its exclusion there are certain issues that need to be addressed. India’s reluctance to enter into talks with the Taliban in one such issue, which needs a rethink. And there are several areas in which India needs to continue working like-the goodwill in Afghanistan, participation in assistance work, bringing together the major leaders in that country.

    India left out of the meeting on peace in Afghanistan

    • Earlier this month, the United Nations Secretariat held a meeting of what it calls the “6+2+1” group on regional efforts to support peace in Afghanistan.
    • The group includes six neighbouring countries: China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; global players the United States and Russia, and Afghanistan itself.
    • India was conspicuous by its absence from the meeting on April 16, given its historical and strategic ties with Afghanistan.
    • This has not happened for the first time, India was left out form talks similarly in 2001 and 2010.
    • In both 2001 and 2010, however, India fought back its exclusion
    • At the Bonn agreement of 2010, India played a major role in Northern Alliance accepting Hamid Karzai as the Chairman of the interim arrangement that replaced the Taliban regime.
    • After the 2010 conference, New Delhi redoubled its efforts with Kabul, and in 2011 India signed the historic Strategic Partnership Agreement, which was Afghanistan’s first such agreement with any country.

    Reasons for not inviting India

    • In 2020, the reason given for keeping India out of regional discussions on Afghanistan was ostensibly that it holds no “boundary” with Afghanistan.
    • But in fact, it is because New Delhi has never announced its support for the U.S.-Taliban peace process.
    • As planners in South Block now consider their next steps in Afghanistan, they must fight back against the idea that any lasting solution in Afghanistan can be discussed without India in the room, while also studying the reasons for such exclusions.

    Following are the issues that Indian must consider and act on as it seeks to fight back its exclusion from the peace talks.

    India’s position on Afghan-led peace process and reality

    • India’s resistance to publicly talking to the Taliban has made it an awkward interlocutor at any table.
    • Its position that only an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, and Afghan-controlled process can be allowed is a principled one but has no takers.
    • The Ashraf Ghani government does not lead, own or control the reconciliation process today, comprising the U.S.-Taliban negotiation for an American troops withdrawal, and intra-Afghan talks on power-sharing.
    • The U.S.-Taliban peace deal means that the Taliban, will become more potent as the U.S. withdraws soldiers from the country.
    • Taliban will hold more sway in the inter-Afghan process as well, as the U.S. withdraws funding for the government in Kabul.

    Two effects of India’s position

    • New Delhi’s decision to put all its eggs in the Ghani basket has had a two-fold effect:
    • 1) Its voice in the reconciliation process has been limited.
    • 2) It has weakened India’s position with other leaders of the deeply divided democratic setup in Kabul such as the former chief executive Abdullah Abdullah.

    India should not let its diplomatic strength weaken

    • India painstakingly built up its presence inside Afghanistan since 2001.
    • This presence is being threatened anew by terror groups such as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP).
    • ISKP is believed to be backed by Pakistan’s establishment.
    • Intercepts showed that the brutal attack, in March, that killed 25 at a gurudwara in Kabul was meant for the embassy in Kabul.
    • The government cleared out both of its consulates this month.
    • While the government has said that the novel coronavirus pandemic prompted its decision to clear out both consulates.
    • The truth is that a full security reassessment is under way for them.
    • Either way, India’s diplomatic strength in Afghanistan should not appear to be in retreat just when it is needed the most.

    Goodwill in Afghanistan and damage caused due to CAA

    • The government must also consider the damage done to the vast reservoir of goodwill India enjoys in Afghanistan because of recent events in the country, especially the controversy over the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.
    • The building blocks of that goodwill are India’s assistance in infrastructure projects, health care, education, trade and food security, and also in the liberal access to Afghans to study, train and work in India.
    • Above all, it is India’s example as a pluralistic, inclusive democracy that inspires many.
    • Afghanistan’s majority-Muslim citizens have felt cut out of the move to offer fast track citizenship to only Afghan minorities.
    • The damage was also done by reports of anti-Muslim rhetoric and incidents of violence in India.

    Regain upper hand in the narrative in Afghanistan

    • While many of these are problems of perception, New Delhi must move swiftly to regain the upper hand in the narrative in Afghanistan.
    • India has provided the assistance of more than $3 billion in projects.
    • Bilateral trade is about $1 billion.
    • A $20 billion projected development expenditure of an alternate route through Chabahar.
    • And support to the Afghan National Army, bureaucrats, doctors and other professionals for training in India should assure it a leading position in Afghanistan’s regional formulation.
    • Three major projects along with hundreds of small development projects (of schools, hospitals and water projects) have cemented that position in Afghan hearts nationwide, regardless of Pakistan’s attempts to undermine that position, particularly in the South.
    • The three major projects include 1) the Afghan Parliament, 2) the Zaranj-Delaram Highway, 3)the Afghanistan-India Friendship Dam (Salma dam).

     Pursue opportunities to fulfil its role in the peace efforts

    • India must also pursue opportunities to fulfil its role in the peace efforts in Afghanistan, starting with efforts to bridge the Ghani-Abdullah divide.
    • India could also play role in bringing together other major leaders with whom India has built ties for decades.
    • It would be an utter tragedy if the Taliban were to enter the government in Kabul as the U.S. deal envisages, to find the opposing front collapse as it did in 1996.
    • An understanding between Iran and the U.S. on Afghanistan is necessary for a lasting peace as well, and India could play a mediatory part, as it did in order for the Chabahar project.

    Return of the Taliban has several implications for India. In 2013, the UPSC asked a question related to developments in Afghanistan against the backdrop of the proposed withdrawal of the International Security Assistance Force. Similarly, a question based on the latest development can be asked, for ex-“The return of Taliban after the US-Taliban deal in Afghanistan is fraught with major security implications for the countries in the region. Examine in the light of the fact that India is faced with a plethora of challenges and needs to safeguard its own strategic interests.”

    Use UN call for peace to put hostilities with Pakistan on hold

    • Finally, New Delhi should use the United Nations’s call for a pause in conflicts during the novel coronavirus pandemic, to ensure a hold on hostilities with Pakistan.
    • This will be even more difficult than it sounds given the abyss that bilateral relations have fallen into in the past year over Kashmir.

    Conclusion

    It would be a mistake, at this point, to tie all India’s support in only to Kabul or the Ghani government; the government must strive to endure that its aid and assistance is broad-based, particularly during the novel coronavirus pandemic to centres outside the capital, even if some lie in areas held by the Taliban.

  • What’s behind diplomatic tensions in the South China Sea?

    In the middle of the global coronavirus pandemic, China has been busy increasing its presence in the South China Sea.

    The dispute

    • In the past few years, China has stepped up military aggression and has created artificial islands for military and economic purposes in the South China Sea.
    • This has drawn criticism from neighbouring countries and other western powers.
    • Soon after, Chinese and Australian warships also entered the fray.
    • Following the arrival of American warships, regional observers expressed concern that the US’s presence may only serve to heighten tensions.
    • The US has no territorial claims in the South China Sea but is known to send its naval force into the waters each time there are provocative developments in the waters, particularly angering China.

    Map observations in the South China Sea are must-dos for the CSE aspirants. UPSC often toggles in the Middle East,  West and Central Asian region. This year we can expect a different region for a  map-based question.

    Why in news now?

    China’s advent for islands

    • This past week, Beijing unilaterally renamed 80 islands and other geographical features in the area, drawing criticism from neighbouring countries who have also laid claim to the same territory.
    • The focus of Chinese acquisitory attention is the two disputed archipelagos of the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands in the middle of the South China Sea waters.
    • They lie between the territory of Vietnam and the Philippines.
    • If the dispute were to aggravate, Asia-Pacific researchers believe it could have serious consequences for diplomatic relations and stability in the region.

    What is the Spratly Islands dispute about?

    • There has been an ongoing territorial dispute between China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia concerning the ownership of the Spratly Islands archipelago and nearby geographical features like corals reefs, cays etc.
    • Since 1968, these nations have engaged in varying kinds of military occupation of the islands and the surrounding waters, with the exception of Brunei, that has contained its objections to the use of its maritime waters for commercial fishing.
    • Although the Spratly Islands are largely uninhabited, there is a possibility that they may have large reserves of untapped natural resources.
    • However, due to the ongoing dispute, there have been few initiatives to explore the scale of these reserves.

    Quest for Oil

    • Over the years, US government agencies have claimed that there is little to no oil and natural gas in these islands, but these reports have done little to reduce the territorial dispute.
    • In the 1970s, oil was discovered in neighbouring islands, specifically off the coast of Palawan. This discovery ramped up territorial claims by these countries.

    What is the Paracel Islands dispute about?

    • The Paracel Islands dispute is slightly more complex. This archipelago is a collection of 130 islands and coral reefs and is located in the South China Sea, almost equidistant from China and Vietnam.
    • Beijing says that references to the Paracel Islands as a part of China sovereign territory can be found in 14th century writings from the Song Dynasty.
    • Vietnam on the other hand, says that historical texts from at least the 15th century show that the islands were a part of its territory.
    • These islands also find mention in records starting from the 16th century by explorers who led expeditions to the East.
    • Colonial powers of the French-Indochina further accelerated the tensions with regard to the Paracel Islands due to their colonial policies in the 20th century.
    • By 1954, tensions had dramatically increased between China and Vietnam over the archipelago.

    What is the most recent dispute about?

    • Recent China established new administrative districts on both Spratly and Paracel Islands.
    • It also renamed those 80 islands, reefs and other geographical features around the two archipelagos with Chinese names.
    • The last time China had unilaterally engaged in a similar initiative was in 1983 where 287 geographical features had been renamed in the disputed chain of islands.

  • Why US’s offer of financial aid to Greenland has angered Denmark?

    Context

    • The US had last year sent a proposal to “purchase” Greenland from the Nordic nation.
    • This proposal follows plans by the US government to open a consulate in Nuuk, Greenland’s capital.
    • This move is being considered to be “extremely provocative” interference by the US.

    Go for a detailed map reading of the Arctic region. It has been in news for several times this year.

    Why is the US opening a consulate in Greenland?

    • The US is opening a consulate in Greenland after nearly seven decades of closing its first consulate after the Second World War.
    • Russia has been steadily expanding its military presence in the Arctic and China has done its bit on the economic front.

    US’s interests in Greenland

    1) Domestic interest

    • The US claims that its aid is to ensure “sustainable growth” in the autonomous island.
    • It also cited Russia’s “aggressive behavior and increased militarisation in the Arctic” and China’s “predatory economic interests” as reasons for the decision.
    • The US acquiring new territory under Trump would appeal to the nationalistic and imperialistic views of Americans.
    • Acquiring Greenland would also secure Trump’s position in US history of having been the third president to add land to the country’s territory.

    2) Strategic interest

    • Due to climate change, the Arctic ice is melting at an accelerated rate, opening up water routes for military and maritime trade.
    • This is in addition to global superpowers and regional players vying for control over Greeland’s vast untapped natural resources.

    3) Economic interest

    • Greenland is also a resource-rich landmass, strategically located between the Arctic Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, with some of the largest deposits of rare-earth metals, including iron-ore, uranium, and by-products of zinc, neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium.
    • These rare-earth metals are used in the production of electric cars, mobile phones and computers.
    • For the longest time, China has been the world’s largest supplier of these rare-earth metals and has expanded its acquisitory plans by excavating mines across the African continent.
    • An acquisition of Greenland would make the US less reliant on China for these rare-earth metals.
    • Greenland, as a part of the Arctic region, also has large deposits of undiscovered oil and gas, resources that the US always wants more of.

    The US obsession

    • Trump’s interest in Greenland is almost an extension of his world view and US foreign policy in his administration.
    • Purchasing another country or territory is unusual, but the US government has done this twice before.
    • Erstwhile President Thomas Jefferson acquired Louisiana from the French in 1803 and the second time when President Andrew Johnson purchased Alaska from Russia in 1867.

    Back2Basics: Greenland

    • Greenland is the world’s largest island located between the Arctic and Atlantic oceans, east of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.
    • It is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark.
    • Though physiographically a part of the continent of North America, Greenland has been politically and culturally associated with Europe
    • The majority of its residents are Inuit, whose ancestors migrated from Alaska through Northern Canada, gradually settling across the island by the 13th century.

  • What is ‘Milk Tea Alliance’?

    The ‘Milk Tea Alliance’ is an informal term coined by social media users which are highly trending these days.

    The term though in news without any institutional backing is gaining popularity. It clearly shows the public outrage against Chinese agressiveness in Taiwan and Hong-Kong.

    What is the ‘Milk Tea Alliance’?

    • Thai social media users began calling for the sovereignty of Taiwan and Hong Kong, extending support to the two countries.
    • This spurred social media users from other Southeast Asian countries to join the call, in a rejection of China’s influence in the region for its own diplomatic and economic gains.
    • The ‘Milk Tea Alliance’ is an informal term coined by social media users because in the region, tea is consumed in many nations with milk, with the exception of China.
    • Memes were formed showing flags of the countries in the “Milk Tea Alliance” with China as a lone outsider.

    What started this online war?

    • The online battle started with a Thai twitter post that questioned whether coronavirus had emerged in a laboratory in Wuhan.
    • There were some related tweets by pro-Taiwanese and Hong Kong people.
    • Pro-China social media users then began attacking Thailand for being a “poor” and “backward” nation and also hurled insults at the Thai king and the Thai prime minister.

  • Global recovery after the Covid-19

    This article discusses the various factors with geopolitical significance. These factors would shape the post-pandemic recovery on a global scale. Though these factors have been touched upon in the previous op-eds, they are dealt with in detail here.

    Post-pandemic strategic environment for the recovery

    • It’s the post-pandemic strategic environment that will dictate how soon the world recovers from this unexpected shock.
    • It must start with the international geopolitical angle, with many assumptions.
    • With some clarity in this domain, we can prepare ourselves better for the recovery phase of a near post-war situation.
    • Shortly, even as the world continues to reel under the pandemic threat, there will be more endeavours on enhancing human security through better strategic management of the world.
    • So, what will all that be about? It could be a major conference.
    • Major conference with agenda for revival: The situation is similar to the elusive efforts towards the creation of new world order after the end of the Cold War in 1989.
    • Will the world consider a major conference with the agenda being a revival after the coronavirus?
    • The 2015 Paris Summit of the United Nations, which was convened to save the world from the rapid impact of climate change, could not muster a consensus.
    • Will a potential 2020 “pandemic conference” succeed in getting big powers to jettison their geopolitical ambition?

    China’s role has significance for India. The UPSC asks questions touching the economic or security aspect of China for India. So, the role played by China in the post-pandemic world is important from Mains perspective. Take note of the issues discussed below.

    The US-China rivalry

    • The US-China rivalry will remain the core issue, with several other regions and nations aligning with the one who can bring them short to medium-term advantages.
    • Contingent upon how badly the US is finally affected, its current confused leadership is unlikely to inspire and its efforts at internal stabilisation may compromise US power.
    • A major turn in political fortunes in the US and its bumbling on pandemic management could throw open opportunities for others to exploit.
    • The US will perceive itself far more insecure than it was even after 9/11.

    Accusations over China’s role in the pandemic

    • There is likely to be a huge effort to slander China — accusing it of being the originator of the scourge — and isolate it economically and politically.
    • The allegations on the use of biological warfare are the ones which will cause turbulence in relationships.
    • Ironically, China is also in a unique position to help the world bounce back.
    • Against the backdrop of these accusations regarding culpability, we need to be ready for changes in the norms of international cooperation and behaviour.
    • Cold war situation: A cold war of sorts could well be on the cards for some time, hampering a full recovery.
    • It will be brutal in the cyber world — fake news on social media will prevent international cooperation in crucial fields such as scientific research, patents.
    • And this could perhaps even slow down the ability to prevent the next pandemic.

    The crucial role of the US

    • Subject to the US’s economic capability after the pandemic, the ability to find a consensus to put on hold defence spending for the sake of human security will be the key.
    • But the trust deficit between nations will probably hamper this to a great extent.
    • The key anchor of globalisation — the US-China trade relationship — will change even more.
    • China cannot be replaced by the US as a major industrial producer (even for the US market).
    • Other countries or blocs — ASEAN, Bangladesh and India — will all chip in but that will still not be enough.
    • Nor can any country buy as much grain from the US as China does.
    • So, an economic relationship will continue but will be politically fractured as both parties search for alternatives, which don’t exist on a scale that both of them need.

    The growing influence of China

    • China’s recovery is likely to be the fastest.
    • Its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) may now go uncontested by the US-led efforts to create alternatives.
    • The Chinese ability to influence politics among smaller nations in Asia and Africa could bring it strategic advantages.
    • But this influence is unlikely to be enough to replace America unless the recession-hit US remains defensively oriented.
    • Potential for conflict: Knowing the US propensity to bounce back, China’s efforts will have to remain energetic and that is where the potential for conflict is likely to rise.
    • Of course, it is not as if the US would abandon its interests for an era of only-inward economic healing.
    • Its eye on the future will remain firmly in place.

    The decline in the credibility of the UN

    • Role of WHO: The UN has lost credibility with the World Health Organisation taking the worst hit any UN agency has suffered in years.
    • Its future is contingent upon how it manages the geopolitical fallout of the pandemic.
    • The sooner it can get the world leaders on board, the better.

    Instability in Iran and Afghanistan

    • The collapse of the economy: Iran has been hit badly and with the US unrelenting on sanctions, its economy could collapse with frightening results as far the Middle East is concerned.
    • The threat for peace in the region: A big nation in instability mode with internal turbulence and leadership challenges could spread greater threats of an undefined kind.
    • The US may abandon Afghanistan with less commitment towards keeping its economy sustainable.
    • Possibility of IS revival: It could be a sure recipe for internal instability, which could see the Islamic State emerge a major player.
    • Russian advantage: Everything in the Middle East points towards Russian advantage and domination.

    Opportunities for India

    • India without recession: Economically hit but probably one of the few nations without a recession, India’s strong central leadership could be a big advantage.
    • International cooperation: Prime Minister Narendra Modi would need to use all his influence to cobble together international cooperation to pull the world from the abyss it could sink into.
    • His credibility is already higher than most international leaders and could spell a leadership role for India not in conflict with China but in cooperation with it.
    • It is India’s established multilateral foreign policy that could eventually come to the assistance of the world.

    Conclusion

    Successful and swift recovery of the world hinges on international cooperation among the nation. This provides India with an opportunity to stitch together international cooperation in dealing with the aftermath of the crisis.

  • The new multilateralism

    Context

    As the major global institutions — from the WHO to the WTO — are experiencing unprecedented turmoil India needs to be pragmatic and fleet-footed.

    Reorientation of India’s multilateral strategy

    • As many international institutions, including the World Health Organisation and the United Nations Security Council, come under great stress in the corona crisis, Delhi’s multilateral strategy is going through a rapid reorientation.
    • Realists in Delhi recognise that India’s engagement with the UN is not about the pursuit of some higher ideological calling, but the navigation of hardball geopolitics.

    China’s growing influence and implications for India

    • China’s role on Kashmir question: China repeatedly pressed the UN to discuss the Kashmir question after Delhi changed the constitutional status of the region last August.
    • China avoiding discussion on Covid crisis: But through last month, as the rotating chair of the UNSC, China blocked any discussion of the Covid crisis.
    • Beijing insisted that the crisis was not a matter of international peace and security that the UNSC ought to bother itself with.
    • A mere internal administrative change in Kashmir, Beijing continues to insist, is a grave threat to international peace and security.
    • With its veto power, Beijing can simply prevent the UNSC from doing anything against China.

    Why the credibility of the UN and WHO bureaucracy is under cloud?

    • Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, jumped quickly into the Indo-Pak arguments over Kashmir, and raised concerns over India’s Citizenship Amendment Act and the National Register of Citizens.
    • Guterres went on an extended visit to Pakistan in February and made an ostentatious public offer to mediate between Delhi and Islamabad on Kashmir.
    • But when it comes to China’s role in the spread of the coronavirus, Guterres can’t seem to find the words.
    • The situation at the WHO is a lot worse.
    • The Director-General of WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warns against the dangers of “politicising” the Covid crisis.
    • Many in Europe and the US think that is exactly what Tedros has done at the WHO in the last few months.
    • Breakdown of the multilateral system: What we are witnessing is the breakdown of the multilateral system that emerged from the ashes of the Second World War amidst the deepening contestation between the world’s foremost powers — the US and China.

    NEW MULTILATERALISM adopted by India

    • India’s new multilateralism — as a pragmatic response to external change — involves downplaying some past associations and strengthening new partnerships.
    • Take, for example, two innovations India has made since the end of the Cold War.
    • One was the BRICS forum with Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa and the other was the so-called Quad — a coalition of democracies with Australia, Japan and the US.
    • Actions of BRICS members with respect to India: As India reorders its multilateral priorities amid the corona crisis, the BRICS forum is losing some of its salience and the Quad is gaining traction.
    • Preventing discussion on COVID crisis: Two of India’s partners in BRICS — Russia and South Africa — had reportedly backed the efforts of a third, China, to prevent a discussion of the COVID crisis in the UNSC.
    • If Delhi were sitting in the UNSC right now as a non-permanent member, it would have had every interest in pressing for a discussion of the COVID crisis that has severely damaged India’s economic and social prospects.
    • Meanwhile, India is in regular consultations on managing the corona crisis with the “Quad Plus” grouping that draws in South Korea, Vietnam and New Zealand.
    • Neither the BRICS nor the Quad square with the conventional narrative on India’s multilateralism that was dominated in the past by the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and the G-77.
    • As circumstances change, India is finding new international partners to secure its interests.

    Context which gave rise to BRICS

    • It started out as a triangular coalition with Russia and China in the mid-1990s.
    • India’s interest in the RIC was borne out of fear of the unipolar moment and Russia’s relentless efforts to draw it into a “strategic triangle” that would resist “American hegemony”.
    • In the early 1990s, Delhi was rather wary of the Bill Clinton Administration’s plans to relieve India of its nuclear and missile programmes.
    • What made matters worse was the Clinton Administration’s formulation that “Kashmir is the world’s most dangerous nuclear flashpoint”.
    • This was not just a description; it was accompanied by a prescription for Delhi: Resolve the Kashmir question by sitting down with Pakistan and the Hurriyat.
    • If Delhi needs any help, Washington will be happy to chip in.
    • Balancing the US pressure: Going into a political tent with Russia and China seemed a sensible bet to ward off American pressures on the nuclear and Kashmir questions.

    Two decades after BRICS-Changes in circumstances

    • Two decades later, we are in a very different place.
    • Take the same two issues — Kashmir and the nuclear programme — that drove India into the BRICS.
    • China’s role on Kashmir issue: It is Beijing that wants the UNSC to take up the Kashmir question, and it is Paris and Washington that are preventing it.
    • NSG membership blocked by China: China has also resolutely blocked India’s effort to become a full member of the global nuclear order by joining the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
    • On the nuclear front too, it was France and the US that helped India break the nuclear blockade.
    • Shielding of Pakistan by China: China shields Pakistan from international pressures to end cross-border terrorism.
    • And it is India’s partners in the West and the Muslim world that are helping Delhi cope better with violent extremism.

    India’s engagement with Europe

    • India has also discovered the new possibilities for engaging Europe in the multilateral arena.
    • Europe as an important partner: If India’s definition of multilateralism — Afro-Asian solidarity — immediately after Independence was defined in opposition to colonial Europe, Delhi now sees Europe as a valuable partner in rearranging the global order.
    • India has joined the “alliance for multilateralism” initiated by Germany and supported by its European partners.

    Conclusion

    India needs all the pragmatism it can muster to pursue its interests in a world where all the major global institutions — from the WHO to the WTO — are experiencing unprecedented turmoil and are heading towards an inevitable restructuring.