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GS Paper: Indian Economy

  • PAN, Aadhaar made mandatory for high-value cash deposits & withdrawals

    The government has made requirement of a Permanent Account Number (PAN) or Aadhaar number for depositing or withdrawing Rs 20 lakh or more in a financial year or for opening a current account mandatory.

    Regulating high-value transactions

    • The Central Board of Direct Taxes, in a notification, said furnishing PAN or biometric Aadhaar will be mandatory for such high-value cash deposits or withdrawals from banks in a financial year.
    • The same will be applied for opening of a current account or cash credit account with a bank or post office.
    • Banks, post offices and co-operative societies would be required to report the transactions of deposits and withdrawals aggregating to Rs 20 lakh or more in a financial year.
    • As of now, PAN is required to be furnished for cash deposits of Rs 50,000 or more in a day.
    • With these rules, a threshold of Rs 20 lakh has been defined for the full financial year.

    How will this help tax department?

    • This move will help the government in tracing the movement of cash in the financial system.
    • It is expected to help the income tax department monitor deposits/withdrawals where tax would not be getting paid by the individual otherwise on his or her income.

    Why PAN-Aadhaar interoperability?

    • The PAN-Aadhaar interoperability will help banks to record details for those who don’t have PAN.
    • The interchangeable provision in the rules would allow a bank or financial institution to ask for Aadhaar in case an individual states that he or she doesn’t have PAN.
    • The Finance Act, 2019, has provided for the interchangeability of PAN with Aadhaar.
    • It has been provided that every person who is required to furnish or intimate or quote his PAN under the Income-tax Act.
    • Those who, has not been allotted a PAN but possesses the Aadhaar number, may furnish or intimate or quote his Aadhaar in lieu of PAN.

     

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  • Control inflation by acting on liquidity

    Context

    The recent action of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to raise the repo rate by 40 basis points and cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points is a recognition of the serious situation with respect to inflation in our country and the resolve to tackle inflation.

    Inflation in India and role of government expenditure

    • India’s CPI inflation has been fluctuating around a high level.
    • As early as October 2020, it had hit a peak of 7.61%.
    • It had remained at a high level of over 6% since April 2020.
    • It did come down after December 2020 but has started rising significantly from January 2022.
    • On the other hand, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation had remained in double digits since April 2021. The GDP implicit price deflator-based inflation rate for 2021-22 is 9.6%.
    • Even though the RBI’s mandate is with respect to CPI inflation, policymakers cannot ignore the behaviour of other price indices.
    • After the advent of COVID-19, the major concern of policymakers all over the world was to revive demand.
    • Keynesian prescription: This was sought to be achieved by raising government expenditure.
    • Thus, the expansion in government expenditure did not immediately result in increased production in countries where the lockdown was taken seriously.
    • However, the Keynesian multiplier does not work when there are supply constraints as in developing countries.
    • That is why the multiplier operates in nominal terms rather than in real terms in such countries.
    • Something similar has happened in the present case where the supply constraint came from a non-mobility of factors of production.
    • Nevertheless, the prescription of enhanced government expenditure is still valid under the present circumstances.
    • Perhaps the increase in output could happen with a lag and also with the relaxation of restrictions.

    Role of monetary policy

    • Why lover money multiplier rate? Initially, the focus of monetary policy in India has been to keep the interest rate low and increase the availability of liquidity through various channels, some of which have been newly introduced.
    • However, the growth rate of money was below the growth rate in reserve money.
    • This is because of lower credit growth which also depends on business sentiment and investment climate.
    • Thus the money multiplier is lower than usual.
    • The Government’s borrowing programme which was larger went through smoothly, thanks to abundant liquidity.
    • Even as the economy picked up steam in 2021-22, inflation also became an issue, this is a worldwide phenomenon.
    • In India too there is a shift in monetary policy.

    Analysing the cause of inflation

    • While discussing inflation, analysts focus almost exclusively on the increases in the prices of individual commodities such as crude oil as the primary cause of inflation.
    • General price level: Supply disruptions due to domestic or external factors may explain the behaviour of individual prices but not the general price level which is what inflation is about.
    • Given a budget constraint, there will only be an adjustment of relative prices.
    • Besides the fact that any cost-push increase in one commodity may get generalised, it is the adjustment that happens at the macro level which becomes critical.
    • It is the adjustment in the macro level of liquidity that sustains inflation.

    Inflation and growth

    • The possible trade-off between inflation and growth has a long history in economic literature.
    • The Phillip’s curve has been analysed theoretically and empirically.
    • Tobin called the Phillip’s curve a ‘cruel dilemma’ because it suggested that full employment was not compatible with price stability. 
    • The critical question flowing from these discussions on trade-off is whether cost-push factors can by themselves generate inflation.
    • In the current situation, it is sometimes argued that inflation will come down, if some part of the increase in crude prices is absorbed by the government. 
    • If the additional burden borne by the government (through loss of revenue) is not offset by expenditures, the overall deficit will widen.
    • The borrowing programme will increase and additional liquidity support may be required.

    Concomitant decisions on CRR and repo rate

    • These are concomitant decisions. Central banks cannot order interest rates.
    • For a rise in the interest rate to stick, appropriate actions must be taken to contract liquidity.
    • That is what the rise in CRR will do.
    • In the absence of a rise in CRR, liquidity will have to be sucked by open market operations.

    Conclusion

    Beyond a point, inflation itself can hinder growth. Negative real rates of interest on savings are not conducive to growth. If we want to control inflation, action on liquidity is very much needed with a concomitant rise in the interest rate on deposits and loans.

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  • India must seize the trade opportunity opening now

    Context

    Slower global growth, an adverse geopolitical environment, the shadow of recurring waves of the pandemic and prolonged supply chain issues are likely to weigh on export growth this year.

    Trade growth in 2021 and uncertainties in 2022

    • The year 2021 was a record one for trade despite the pandemic.
    • In terms of volumes, merchandise trade rose 9.8 per cent, while in dollar terms, it grew 26 per cent.
    • The value of commercial services trade was also up 15 per cent.
    • India has had a good export run in line with global trends, witnessing record goods exports of $419 billion, while touching $250 billion in services exports.
    • However, global growth forecasts have now been pared down.
    • Slower global growth, an adverse geopolitical environment, the shadow of recurring waves of the pandemic and prolonged supply chain issues are likely to weigh on export growth this year.

    Taping into opportunities

    • Ukraine and Sri Lanka are major exporters of agricultural products and the vacuum created by their limited presence in global trade will open up agricultural export opportunities for India.
    • This will not only spur overall exports but will also help to support the recovery of the agrarian economy through higher realisations.
    • Tea and wheat: As many as 25 African countries import more than one-third of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine and for 15 of them, the share exceeds 50 per cent.
    • Sri Lanka is also a major player in the global tea market and produces around 300 million kg annually.
    • Almost 98 per cent of its annual production is exported.
    • India, the second-largest producer of tea with an annual production of 900 million kg, is in a good position to exploit the opportunity and fill the gap.
    • Textile: Apart from tea and wheat, newer export opportunities have arisen for textiles.
    • Sri Lanka exports $5.42 billion worth of garments and prolonged power cuts in the island nation will hurt its production and export capacity.

    Suggestions

    • 1] Work on non-tariff barriers: One, work on non-tariff barriers for agricultural trade with a special focus on harmonising the sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) requirements.
    • 2] Autonomy in tea sector: To support tea exports, traditional tea boards are seeking a greater role and autonomy for optimising the development, promotion, and research in the sector.
    • Quicker implementation of the proposed Tea Promotion and Development Act is of utmost importance.
    • 3] Integration with global supply chains: India must double down on its integration with global supply chains.The commerce ministry has negotiated a slew of trade deals.
    • 4] Reduce tariff rates for intermediate inputs: Tariff rates for intermediate inputs should be reduced to either zero or should be negligible for India to become an attractive location for assembly activities.
    • 5] Realignment of specialisation patterns: India must persist with the creation of an enabling ecosystem that realigns its specialisation patterns towards labour-intensive processes and product lines.
    • The labour market reforms must be taken to their logical conclusion.
    • 6] Pro-active FDI policy: A continuous and pro-active FDI policy is also critical as foreign capital and technology are key enablers for entry into global production networks even as local firms play a role as subcontractors and suppliers of intermediate inputs to MNEs.
    • 7]Power supply and logistical bottlenecks: Lastly, exports could suffer if basic issues such as availability of power and logistical bottlenecks keep rearing their ugly heads.
    • The Economic Survey 2019 had recommended that low levels of service link costs (costs related to transportation, communication, and other tasks involved in coordinating the activity etc) are prerequisites to strengthen their participation in GVCs.
    • This should not be neglected.

    Conclusion

    If India were to tap export opportunities in developed markets, it must act on the suggestions above.

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  • Let’s make GST a good and simple tax

    Context

    The GST has been a remarkable achievement and a unique experiment in cooperative federalism. In this, both the Union and the state governments gave up their tax autonomy in favour of harmonising domestic trade taxes.

    Multiple rates: A major shortcoming in the structure of GST

    •  One of the most important shortcomings in the structure of GST is multiple rates.
    • The committee headed by the Chief Economic Adviser estimated the tax rate at 15-15.5 per cent.
    • It further recommended that in keeping with growing international practice, India should strive towards a single rate in the medium-term to facilitate administrative simplicity and compliance, but in the immediate context, it should have a three-tier structure (excluding zero).
    • The structure finally adopted was to have four rates of 5, 12, 18, and 28 per cent besides zero, though almost 75 per cent of the revenues accrue from the 12 and 18 per cent slabs.
    • Why single rate structure? The reasons for adopting a single rate structure in most countries are to have a simple tax system, prevent misclassifications and litigations arising therefrom, and to avoid an inverted duty structure of taxes on inputs exceeding those on outputs requiring detailed scrutiny and refunds.
    • Why multiple rates? The main reason for rate differentiation is equity.
    • But it is argued that this is an inefficient way of targeting benefits for the poor. 
    • Although the exempted and low-rated items are consumed relatively more by the poor, in absolute terms, the consumption may be more by the rich. 

    Suggestions

    • Focus on the expenditure side: The ideal way of targeting the benefits to the poor is on the expenditure side, through targeted cash transfers to vulnerable groups and providing quality education and healthcare.
    • Of course, unprocessed food items have to be exempted for reasons of administrative difficulty, but the list should be kept small.
    • Right time to rationalise the rates: Now, in fact, is the opportune time to rationalise the rate structure.
    • The economy is in recovery mode and more importantly, GST revenues have shown reasonably high buoyancy with collections of over Rs 1 lakh crore in the last 10 months and touching a record of Rs 1.68 lakh crore in April 2022.
    • Role of e-invoicing: The revenue increase has not come about only due to the economic recovery.
    •  The more important reason seems to be that at last, the GSTN has been able to stabilise the technology platform.
    • Mandating the issue of e-invoicing for all businesses above Rs 100 crore has enabled better invoice matching and detection of fake invoices that were used to claim the input tax credit.
    • This has helped to improve tax compliance and has also enabled better enforcement.
    • With time, the GSTN should be able to enforce e-invoice requirements on all businesses above Rs 10 crore, which will cover more than 95 per cent of taxpayers.
    • Dealing with the excessive rate differentiation: The GST council is concerned about the problems arising from excessive rate differentiation and has set up a seven-member ministerial panel .
    • But it has been widely reported that the committee is thinking of increasing the lower tax rate from 5 per cent to 8 per cent and moving some essential items from the 5 per cent category to the 3 per cent slab.
    • This will be retrograde because a rate category will be added. The need of the hour is to reduce the rate categories.
    • Merge 12 and 18 per cent categories: It would be preferable to merge the 12 per cent and 18 per cent categories into a 15-16 per cent slab and move the items in the 5 per cent category to the 8 per cent slab and remove the 28 per cent category altogether. 

    Conclusion

    The merger of 12 and 18 per cent categories will result in the GST structure with two rates and as the cesses will cease after 2026 when the compensation requirement is over, it will really become a “good and simple tax”.

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  • Inflation control needs another model

    Context

    At the conclusion of the April meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee had already warned that the focus will henceforth be on inflation. Yesterday it raised the repo rate somewhat sooner than was expected by the market.

     Discourse on inflation engaged in by the western central banks

    • Inflation reflects an excess of output over its ‘natural’ level.
    • Inflation targeting refers to the policy of controlling inflation by raising the interest rate over which the central bank has control, i.e. the rate at which it lends to commercial banks, the ‘repo rate’.
    • This, it is argued, will induce firms to stay their investment plans and reduce inventories, lowering production.
    • As economy-wide output declines, becoming equal to the natural level of output, inflation will cease.
    • This story does not just legitimise a policy of output contraction for inflation but sees it as optimal.
    • The natural level of output itself is the productive counterpart of the natural level of employment, the level that obtains in a freely functioning labour market.
    • So, at the natural level of output, the economy is deemed to be at full employment.
    • Salient in the context is the fact that the natural level of output is unobservable.
    • Hence inflation as a reflection of an “overheating” economy is something that must be taken on trust.

    Inflation control in India

    • Not surprisingly for a theory based on an unobservable variable, the proposition that inflation is due to an overheating economy fares poorly when put to a statistical test for India. 
    • There is not a single demonstration of the empirical validity of the model of inflation presented in the RBI report of 2014, which recommended a move to inflation targeting.
    • On the other hand inflation in India can be explained in terms of the movement of the prices of agricultural goods and, to a lesser extent, imported oil.
    • How effective is monetary policy in controlling inflation: The implication of this finding is damaging for the claim that monetary policy can control inflation, for neither the price of agricultural goods nor that of imported oil is under the central bank’s control.
    • The only route by which monetary policy can, in principle, control inflation is by curbing the growth of non-agricultural output, which would in turn lower the growth of demand for agricultural goods.
    • As the demand for agricultural goods slows, so will inflation, but this comes at the cost of output and employment.
    • At least, this is the theory.
    • Whether this takes place in practice depends upon the extent to which changes in the repo rate are transmitted to commercial bank lending rates.

    Way forward

    • Focus on supply of agricultural goods: The implication for the policymaker that inflation is driven by agricultural goods prices, as is the case in India presently, is that the focus should be on increasing the supply of these goods.
    • Growing per capita income in India has shifted the average consumption basket towards foods rich in minerals, such as fruits and vegetables, and protein, such as milk and meat.
    • But the expansion of the supply of these foods has been lower than the growth in demand for them.
    • So a concerted drive to increase the supply of food other than rice and wheat holds the key.
    • Costly food threatens the health of the population, as people economise on their food intake, and holds back the economy, as only a small part of a household’s budget can be spent on non-agricultural goods.

    Conclusion

    Monetary policy manoeuvres, typified by the RBI’s raising of the repo rate is not an efficient solution for agricultural price-driven inflation. Any lasting inflation control would require placing agricultural production on a steady footing, with continuously rising productivity.

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  • With repo rate hike, RBI has done what’s necessary

    Context

    The RBI has decided to take the bull by the horns. It has raised the repo rate by 40 basis points and the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points to fight inflation.

    Why major central banks across the world are hiking rates?

    • Across the world, major central banks have of late gone on a rate hike spree, waking up to the realisation of inflationary pressures not being transitory in nature.
    • Record high inflation in the US: The US Fed has been on the offensive battling a 40-year high surge in prices.
    • It has tapered its bond purchase programme drastically while suggesting in no uncertain terms the pace of rate hikes needed to combat inflation.
    • The European Union has been slow to respond but voices are growing to correct the path at the earliest.
    • Banks like the Central Bank of Brazil or the Russian Central Bank have increased the interest rate to double digits.
    • Emerging economies have been doubly hit — the days of easy liquidity are well behind them even as their economic resources remain constrained to support an uneven proportion of population hit by pandemic.
    • Including the RBI’s decision today to push the benchmark rate to align with the current market realities, 21 countries have increased interest rates so far.

    Analysing the RBI’s decision to hike interest rates

    • To this extent, the decision by the RBI to frontload the rate hikes ahead of the Fed decision is again an attempt to stem capital outflows.
    • Accommodative policy stance; The most interesting aspect of the rate hike today is the continuation of the accommodative policy stance.
    • The CRR hike may be just an attempt to build up a war chest on the liquidity front.
    • Liquidity inflows to the financial system could be either policy induced by the central bank for example changes in reserves, open market operations etc or non-policy induced such as foreign exchange reserves, government cash balances, and currency in circulation.
    • Given that non-policy induced liquidity inflows have been recently impacted (outflows of portfolio capital) and given the huge size of the government borrowing programme, the RBI also needs to support the market through some means.
    • Impounding bank reserves through the CRR (Rs 87,000 crore) could give some space to the central bank to conduct open market purchases of bonds from banks and thus inject concomitant liquidity some time in the future if the need so arises.
    •  The CRR rate hike is thus an important tool to possibly manage G-sec yields.

    Inflation dynamics in India

    • The inflationary pressures can be attributed mainly to adverse cost-push factors, coming from supply-side shocks in food and fuel prices.
    • The RBI statement thus cites food inflation as a major source of discomfort.
    • Additionally, nominal rural wages for both agricultural and non-agricultural labourers picked up during the second half 2021-22.
    • However, such wage growth has remained soft.
    • Measures to ameliorate supply-side cost pressures would be thus critical at this juncture, especially in terms of a calibrated reduction of taxes on petrol and diesel.
    • On the policy side, however, it would mean that even after rate hikes, inflation may continue to remain high for some time.
    • The MCLR (Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate) linked loans have a share of around 53 per cent in the overall loan kitty.
    • With the rise in CRR and expected future hikes in the benchmark rates, there would be an increase in MCLR due to a negative carry.

    Conclusion

    The RBI has acted prudently in responding to market forces that could impact India’s growth prospects if inflationary concerns were not addressed now. At the same time, by pledging to remain accommodative to spur, and reinvigorate growth, it has reaffirmed its commitment to being a trusted partner in the growth of the country.

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  • RBI surprises with 40 bps rate increase in Repo Rate

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in a sudden move, raised the repo rate by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.4% citing inflation that was globally rising alarmingly and spreading fast.

    Why in news?

    • The repo rate increase was the first since August 2018.
    • The MPC retained its ‘accommodative’ policy stance even as it focuses on withdrawal of accommodation to keep inflation within the target range while supporting growth.
    • Due to Ukraine War, persistent and spreading inflationary pressures are becoming more acute with every passing day.

    Hues over the REPO spike

    • The move — to have such a meeting and to raise the interest rates — is, at two different levels, both surprising and obvious.
    • It is surprising because the RBI’s MPC meets once every two months — and the meeting this week was not scheduled.

    What is Repo Rate?

    • Repo rate is the rate at which the central bank of a country (Reserve Bank of India in case of India) lends money to commercial banks in the event of any shortfall of funds.
    • It is used by monetary authorities to control inflation.
    • In the event of inflation, central banks increase repo rate as this acts as a disincentive for banks to borrow from the central bank.
    • This ultimately reduces the money supply in the economy and thus helps in arresting inflation.

    How does the repo dynamics work?

    • When there is a shortage of funds, commercial banks borrow money from the central bank which is repaid according to the repo rate applicable.
    • The central bank provides these short terms loans against securities such as treasury bills or government bonds.
    • This monetary policy is used by the central bank to control inflation or increase the liquidity of banks.
    • The government increases the repo rate when they need to control prices and restrict borrowings.
    • An increase in repo rate means commercial banks have to pay more interest for the money lent to them and therefore, a change in repo rate eventually affects public borrowings such as home loan, EMIs, etc.
    • From interest charged by commercial banks on loans to the returns from deposits, various financial and investment instruments are indirectly dependent on the repo rate.

    What is accommodative stance of policy?

    • Accommodative monetary policy is when central banks expand the money supply to boost the economy. Monetary policies that are considered accommodative include lowering the Federal funds rate.
    • These measures are meant to make money less expensive to borrow and encourage more spending.

    What triggered the RBI to take sudden decision?

    • Inflation has been rising for over two years: By law, the RBI is supposed to target retail inflation at 4%. Inflation constantly above 4% since last year.
    • Inflation has not been “transitory”: The reasons for high inflation have tended to change over the months due to wide range of reasons like war, crude oil prices rise, taxes on fuels etc.
    • Spike in crude oil prices is not new: The RBI has pointed to high crude oil prices in the wake of the Ukraine war, as one of the key reasons for high inflation in India.
    • High core inflation: The core inflation which is essentially the inflation rate stripped of the effect of fuel and food prices has been rising up. This is more worrisome for RBI since it cannot be altered overnight.
    • Monetary policy has lags. RBI waited too long: If the RBI wanted to contain inflation in May, it should have acted in February or at least in April. Raising rates right now may not bring down the inflation rate immediately.

    Try this PYQ from CSP 2020:

    Q.If the RBI decides to adopt an expansionist monetary policy, which of the following it would NOT do?

    1. Cut and optimize the statutory liquidity ratio
    2. Increase the Marginal Standing Facility Rate
    3. Cut the Bank Rate and Repo Rate

    Select the correct answer using the code given below:

    (a) 1 and 2 only

    (b) 2 only

    (c) 1 and 3 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”u0fhdp0i3d” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here:

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    Back2Basics: Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)

    • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is a committee of the RBI, which is entrusted with the task of fixing the benchmark policy interest rate (repo rate) to contain inflation within the specified target level.
    • The RBI Act, 1934 was amended by Finance Act (India), 2016 to constitute MPC to bring more transparency and accountability in fixing India’s Monetary Policy.
    • The policy is published after every meeting with each member explaining his opinions.
    • The committee is answerable to the Government of India if the inflation exceeds the range prescribed for three consecutive months.
    • Suggestions for setting up a MPC is not new and goes back to 2002 when YV Reddy committee proposed to establish an MPC, then Tarapore committee in 2006, Percy Mistry committee in 2007, Raghuram Rajan committee in 2009 and then Urjit Patel Committee in 2013.

    Composition and Working

    • The committee comprises six members – three officials of the RBI and three external members nominated by the Government of India.
    • The meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee are held at least 4 times a year and it publishes its decisions after each such meeting.
    • The Governor of RBI is the chairperson ex officio of the committee.
    • Decisions are taken by a majority with the Governor having the casting vote in case of a tie.
    • They need to observe a “silent period” seven days before and after the rate decision for “utmost confidentiality”.

     

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  • LIC

    Context

    LIC is now at a transformational moment. Its listing on the bourses should lift LIC to be a part of the elite corporate community in India.

    Insurance sector in India

    • Opening of the insurance sector: A milestone in the history of India’s insurance industry was the opening of the sector for private participation in the year 2000 and this caused widespread concern that LIC will find the competition tough and could very well be marginalised.
    • Today, there are 24 private players in the life insurance space and many of them have foreign collaborations.
    • LIC has steadily grown in the past six decades and today with over 290 million policyholders and an asset value of ₹38 lakh crore ($520 billion), it ranks as one of the largest insurance companies in the world.
    • Yet, LIC remains a colossus capturing 75% of the life insurance business in the country.
    • Its claim settlement at 99.87% is far above the industry average of 84%.

    Role of LIC in skilling and women’s employment

    • LIC created large scale employment for women right from its inception in 1956. 
    • Thousands of women became LIC agents in the 1950s and 60s, when job opportunities were scarce.
    • There was no entry barrier in terms of age or fixed time for work.
    • Education requirement was a mere high school pass.
    • Many of these women were housewives who could earn an extra income by selling LIC policies.
    • This was a period before the arrival of digital technologies and mobile phones.
    • Skill development program: LIC’s training programme with its mix of online education and real-life case studies offer the best model for India’s skill development programmes.
    •  LIC’s relevance comes from its track record of creating vast number of employment opportunities for ordinary Indians, male and female, urban and rural.

    Policies focused on savings

    • In a country of vast poverty and low income, LIC recognised from the beginning that it cannot sell insurance as a risk cover on premature death.
    • It, therefore, devised policies focussing on savings and the need for children’s education and daughter’s marriage which are fundamentals to family values in India.
    • These policies also ensured that a part of the premium paid was returned at regular intervals before the maturity period, providing liquidity for emergencies.
    • They simultaneously covered risk caused by death.
    • People-centric approach: While the private players concentrated on technology-driven marketing, LIC’s approach was significantly people-centric.
    • When Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana was launched for financial inclusion of over 300 million of the rural population on August 15, 2014, LIC was already there with its policies covering a rural population of 200 million.

    Conclusion

    The nation must not forget the fact that LIC was built on sweat and tears, pain and sacrifice of ordinary Indians. It is these democratic credentials that remain LIC’s most valuable asset.

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  • Confidentiality ring amendment and its impact on antitrust disputes

    Context

    Amazon (the defendant) decided to take the confidentiality route towards its submissions in an order dated March 7 passed by the DG-CCI on the Amazon dispute.

    About the Confidentiality Ring

    • In 2015, the EU mandated the creation of a data room to respect the confidentiality of certain documents.
    • The EU has to protect this mandate to ensure that the right of defence is not prejudiced. 
    • Articles 101 and 102 of the Treaty of the European Union, which states: “Through confidentiality rings, DG Competition (EU) can safeguard the rights of defence while respecting the legitimate interests in the confidentiality of the information providers.
    • In addition, confidentiality rings remove or reduce the burden of preparing non-confidential versions of documents.”

    Adoption of Confidentiality ring by CCI

    • CCI’s investigation under Sections 3, 4 or 5 of the Competition Act are related to the suo motu powers given to the director-general of the commission, which have now extended toward establishing a confidentiality ring.
    • The CCI has taken an alternative view by vaguely replacing the intent with the regulation.
    • The commission may provide the Confidentiality ring after providing a reasonable opportunity to the informant to represent its case before the Commission.
    • This casts an onus on the informant.
    • Turning to the provider of confidential information, the party seeking confidentiality has to submit reasons and the same must be rebutted by the informant, CCI or any other parties, largely driven by the CCI.

    Issues with the CCI adoption of the Confidentiality Ring

    1] Indiscriminate use of defendant’s reputation ground

    • What would happen if the informant seeks additional documents so that the agency is not prejudiced?
    • By hearing parties out, through redacted information the CCI is bound to be questioned as to the reasons for deciding in a certain manner and worse, could stifle the process at the start.
    • This is likely because the CCI has to hear the objections that the informant may have regarding the reasons for keeping information confidential.
    • The usual ground for seeking this protection is the defendant’s reputation.
    • However, this defence can be used to indiscriminately to subdue any counter that may arise from the informant, who may not possess the intricate details of how a cartel works.

    2] Rejection of informant’s right to know the information

    • The second question is about the relief under Section 35 of the Act that empowers the CCI to establish a confidentiality ring including the parties in dispute to disseminate the information for which the confidentiality clause is invoked.
    • However, this is immediately caveated by Regulation 8 of the “Confidentiality Ring” Amendment of April 8, which states that the informant shall not be part of the ring.
    • This will essentially lead the CCI to gather more information surreptitiously for the determination of the case.
    • Void the informant’s right to know information: It has also effectively rejected the informant’s right to know the information, which would be necessary to establish their claim.
    • Brings secrecy: This not only empowers the CCI to further its cause of suo motu investigation but also brings secrecy to cases of high-value disputes.

    3] It protects the defendant

    • The reason the CCI decided to establish a confidentiality ring is the opposite of the EU directive.
    • The EU would like to protect the information provider, but the CCI seems to want to protect the documents of the defendant.
    • This contradicts the intent in regulation 1 wherein the CCI intends to protect the informant and regulation 2, which gives unfettered rights to “parties” in the dispute to summarily drop the confidentiality card which, according to any reasonable person, includes the defendant.

    Conclusion

    The protection provided to the informants, unfortunately, turns out to be to the advantage of the defendants, who are usually large multi-billion dollar entities. It enables the CCI to ringfence its investigation creating legal immunity for “all” involved.

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  • Managing the fiscal shock of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

    Context

    The Union Budget 2022-23 received a great deal of attention even before the financial year began due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the consequent rise in inflation. There has been considerable speculation on whether the fiscal targets will be altered due to the evolving conditions.

    Estimate of GDP

    •  The critical estimate of GDP growth assumed for this year has certainly changed, with the RBI also adjusting its earlier forecast.
    • However, the budget was conservative to begin with, assuming an 11.1 per cent growth estimate on which its revenue collection targets were based.
    • Given that real GDP growth has been scaled down by the RBI to 7.2 per cent, and as inflation has gone up, on balance, the 11.1 per cent assumption looks tenable.
    • Hence, inflation has been a positive for the government in this respect.

    Tax collection

    • Another positive that emerged last year was that overall tax collections were even more buoyant than expected.
    • From the budgeted figure of Rs 22.17 lakh crore, the revised estimates raised the target to Rs 25.16 lakh crore.
    • In comparison, actual collections have turned out to be even higher at Rs 27.07 lakh crore.
    • If this buoyancy is maintained, then the government can expect the 2022-23 target of Rs 27.57 lakh crore to be exceeded by around Rs 2.5 lakh crore (of this, around 30 per cent will go to the states).
    • This additional revenue would ideally flow from enhanced GST collections, corporate tax, and customs.
    • Central to GST collections increasing is private consumption.
    • Today, high inflation erodes the purchasing power of households, which will divert a larger portion of their incomes for necessities that have become expensive.
    • Therefore, there will be uncertainty here. 
    • Corporates did well last year as they did manage to pass on higher input costs to the consumers, especially in the second half of the year.
    • Can they do it for the second time is the question.
    • High growth in trade volumes led to the government raking in higher customs collections. W
    • ith global growth set to slow down in 2022, a similar flow is unlikely.

    Excise collection and challenges

    • The government will be watchful of excise collections as it is possible that rising fuel prices will lead to lower consumption.
    • Also, in case crude oil continues on the current path and remains in the region of $100-120/barrel, a call may have to be taken by the government on the excise duty: Once the prices of diesel and petrol remain at a new threshold, there will be a tendency for freight rates to be increased permanently.
    • This will have a secondary impact on inflation. 

    Disinvestment challenges

    • On the revenue side, the LIC disinvestment that was to happen last year will materialise this year.
    • The disinvestment has been pushed through for May, but would be of a much lower amount (around Rs 21,000 crore) than envisaged earlier.
    • It will be interesting to see if this would be a part of the Rs 65,000 crore target for this year.

    Uncertainty on the expenditure side

    • The biggest concern will be the fertiliser subsidy, which has been a volatile expenditure item.
    • Higher prices of natural gas have meant that fertilisers have been more expensive and so, the budgeted amount of Rs 1.05 lakh crore will have to be revisited.
    • With inflation already high and agriculture expected to be the bright spot again, the government cannot risk ignoring the subsidy element on fertilisers because there can be an impact on farm product prices.
    • The food subsidy will also need to be examined.
    • The present rise in food prices globally has meant that there is a good global market, especially for wheat.
    • Exports for wheat and maize might rise but can distort the procurement process.

    Interest rate and its implications for borrowing

    • The budget had assumed that interest rates would be stable.
    • However, conditions have changed quite quickly with bond yields moving up by almost 50 bps for the 10-year G-secs.
    • This will mean that the entire Rs 15.95 lakh crore of gross borrowing will have to be carried out at a higher cost.
    • This can result in an additional Rs 8,000 crore of interest if the 50 basis points increase holds through the year. There could be an upward bias if rates go up further.

    Conclusion

    The longer the conflict continues the greater will be the impact. While the government has adeptly managed the fiscal numbers in the last couple of years, this year will be particularly challenging considering the nature of the shock.

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