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GS Paper: Indian Economy

  • What is a Ratings Agency and why do they matter?

    Finance Secretary has accused rating agencies of “double standards” when assessing emerging markets and developing economies.

    What is the news?

    • Fitch, a rating agency, has termed India as the most indebted emerging market.
    • It claimed that the latest budget did not provide clarity on fiscal consolidation plans.

    What is a Rating Agency?

    • Rating agencies assess the creditworthiness or potential of an equity, debt or country.
    • Their reports are read by investors to make an informed decision on whether or not to invest in a particular country or companies in that geography.
    • They assess if a country, equity or debt is financially stable and whether it at a low/high default risk.
    • In simpler terms, these reports help investors gauge if they would get a return on their investment.

    What do they do?

    • The agencies periodically re-evaluate previously assigned ratings after new developments geopolitical events or a significant economic announcement by the concerned entity.
    • Their reports are sold and published in financial and daily newspapers.

    What grading pattern do they follow?

    • The three prominent ratings agencies, viz., Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch subscribe to largely similar grading patterns.
    • Standard & Poor’s accord their highest grade, that is, AAA, to countries, equity or debt with the exceedingly high capacity to meet their financial commitments.
    • Its grading slab includes letters A, B and C with an addition a single or double letter denoting a higher grade.
    • Moody’s separates ratings into short and long-term definitions. Its longer-term grading ranges from Aaa to C, with Aaa being the highest.
    • Fitch, too, rates from AAA to D, with D being the lowest. It follows the same succession scheme as Moody’s and Fitch.

    Criticism of rating agencies

    • Popular ratings agencies publicly reveal their methodology, which is based on macroeconomic data publicly made available by a country, to lend credibility to their inferences.
    • However, credit rating agencies were subjected to severe criticism for allegedly spurring the financial crisis in the United States, which began in 2017.
    • The agencies underestimated the credit risk associated with structured credit products and failed to adjust their ratings quickly enough to deteriorating market conditions.
    • They were charged for methodological errors and conflict of interest on multiple counts.

    Do countries pay attention to ratings agencies?

    • Lowered rating of a country can potentially cause panic selling or offloading of investment by a foreign investor.
    • In 2013, the European Union opted for regulating the agencies.
    • Over reliance on credit ratings may reduce incentives for investor to develop their own capacity for credit risk assessment.
    • Ratings Agencies in the EU are now permitted to issue ratings for a country only thrice a year, and after close of trade in the entire Union.

     

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  • What is the Digital Rupee?

    The Union Finance Minister has announced the launch of the Digital Rupee — a central bank digital currency (CBDC) — 2022-23 onwards.

    Who will launch the CBDC?

    • The Reserve Bank of India will launch the CBDC in the upcoming financial year.
    • This follows the government’s plans to launch the CBDC that will be backed by blockchain technology.

    What is a CBDC?

    • CBDC is a legal tender issued by a central bank in a digital form.
    • It is similar to a fiat currency issued in paper and is interchangeable with any other fiat currency.
    • One chief difference will be that a Digital Rupee transaction will be instantaneous as opposed to the current digital payment experience.

    Features of CBDC

    • High-security instrument: CBDC is a high-security digital instrument; like paper banknotes, it is a means of payment, a unit of account, and a store of value.
    • Uniquely identifiable: And like paper currency, each unit is uniquely identifiable to prevent counterfeit.
    • Liability of central bank: It is a liability of the central bank just as physical currency is.
    • Transferability: It’s a digital bearer instrument that can be stored, transferred, and transmitted by all kinds of digital payment systems and services.

    What is the need for CBDC?

    • Online transactions: India is a leader in digital payments, but cash remains dominant for small-value transactions.
    • High currency in circulation: India has a fairly high currency-to-GDP ratio.
    • Cost of currency management: An official digital currency would reduce the cost of currency management while enabling real-time payments without any inter-bank settlement.
    • The growth of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc has raised challenges to fiat currencies.

    Key benefits offered

    • Faster system: CBDC can definitely increase the transmission of money from central banks to commercial banks and end customers much faster than the present system.
    • Financial inclusion: Specific use cases, like financial inclusion, can also be covered by CBDC that can benefit millions of citizens who need money and are currently unbanked or banked with limited banking services
    • Monetary policy facilitation: The move to bring out a CBDC could significantly improve monetary policy development in India.
    • Making of a regional currency: In the cross-border payments domain, India can take a lead by leveraging digital Rupee especially in countries such as Bhutan, Saudia Arabia, and Singapore where NPCI has existing arrangements.

    Why is CBDC preferred over Cryptocurrency?

    • Sovereign guarantee: Cryptocurrencies pose risks to consumers.  They do not have any sovereign guarantee and hence are not legal tender.
    • Market volatility: Their speculative nature also makes them highly volatile.  For instance, the value of Bitcoin fell from USD 20,000 in December 2017 to USD 3,800 in November 2018.
    • Risk in security: A user loses access to their cryptocurrency if they lose their private key (unlike traditional digital banking accounts, this password cannot be reset).
    • Malware threats: In some cases, these private keys are stored by technical service providers (cryptocurrency exchanges or wallets), which are prone to malware or hacking.
    • Money laundering: Cryptocurrencies are more vulnerable to criminal activity and money laundering.  They provide greater anonymity than other payment methods since the public keys engaging in a transaction cannot be directly linked to an individual.
    • Regulatory bypass: A central bank cannot regulate the supply of cryptocurrencies in the economy.  This could pose a risk to the financial stability of the country if their use becomes widespread.
    • Power consumption: Since validating transactions is energy-intensive, it may have adverse consequences for the country’s energy security (the total electricity use of bitcoin mining, in 2018, was equivalent to that of mid-sized economies such as Switzerland).

    Way forward

    • The launch of CBDCs may not be a smooth affair and still requires more clarity in India. There are still a lot of misconceptions about the concept of digital currency in the country.
    • The effectiveness of CBDCs will depend on aspects such as privacy design and programmability.
    • There is a huge opportunity for India to take a lead globally via a large-scale rollout and adoption of digital currencies.

     

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  • What is UNCITRAL Model for Cross-Border Insolvency?

    The Economic Survey 2021-22 has called for a standardized framework for cross-border insolvency as the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) at present does not have an instrument to restructure firms involving cross-border jurisdictions.

    What is the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC)?

    • The IBC, 2016 is the bankruptcy law of India that seeks to consolidate the existing framework by creating a single law for insolvency and bankruptcy.
    • It is a one-stop solution for resolving insolvencies which previously was a long process that did not offer an economically viable arrangement.
    • The code aims to protect the interests of small investors and make the process of doing business less cumbersome.

    Cross-border insolvency proceedings

    • Cross-border insolvency proceedings are relevant for the resolution of distressed companies with assets and liabilities across multiple jurisdictions.
    • A framework for cross border insolvency proceedings allows for:
    1. Location of such a company’s foreign assets
    2. Identification of creditors and their claims
    3. Establishing payment towards claims and
    4. Process for coordination between courts in different countries

    Current status of foreign stakeholders and courts in other jurisdictions under IBC

    • Foreign creditors can make claims against a domestic company.
    • However, the IBC currently does not allow for automatic recognition of any insolvency proceedings in other countries.
    • Current provisions do not allow Indian courts to address the issue of foreign assets of a company being subjected to parallel insolvency proceedings in other jurisdictions.

    What is the UNCITRAL Model?

    • The UNCITRAL model is the most widely accepted legal framework to deal with cross-border insolvency issues.
    • It has been adopted by 49 countries, including the UK, the US, South Africa, South Korea, and Singapore.
    • It is designed to assist States in reforming and modernizing their laws on the arbitral procedure so as to take into account the particular features and needs of international commercial arbitration.

    Key provisions

    This law works on four main principles: access, recognition, cooperation and coordination:

    1. Direct access to foreign insolvency professionals and foreign creditors to participate in or commence domestic insolvency proceedings against a defaulting debtor.
    2. Recognition of foreign proceedings & provision of remedies.
    3. Cooperation between domestic and foreign courts & domestic and foreign insolvency practitioners.
    4. Coordination between two or more concurrent insolvency proceedings in different countries: The main proceeding is determined by the concept of Centre of Main Interest (COMI).

    Implications for India

    • The framework for cross-border insolvency adopted in India may like in the case of some other countries require reciprocity from any country which seeks to have its insolvency proceedings recognised by Indian courts.
    • This would allow Indian proceedings for foreign corporate debtors to be recognised in foreign jurisdictions.

    How is IBC different from the model law?

    • Many countries that adopt the UNCITRAL model law do make certain changes to suit their domestic requirements.
    • The Indian cross-border insolvency framework excludes financial service providers from being subjected to cross-border insolvency proceedings.
    • This is because many countries exempt businesses providing critical financial services, such as banks and insurance companies, from the provisions of cross-border insolvency frameworks.

    Back2Basics: UNCITRAL

    • It is an affiliate organization to the UN made up of business and legal professionals.
    • This group develops model standards and procedures for dealing with issues affecting international business.
    • Perhaps most notably, UNCITRAL promulgated the Convention on International Sale of Goods (CISG).
    • The CISG is a model law commonly used as the governing provisions in contracts between parties from different nations.

     

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  • What is Reverse Repo Normalization?

    In a recent report, the State Bank of India, which is the largest public sector bank in the country, has stated that the stage is set for a reverse repo normalization.

    What is Monetary Policy Normalisation?

    The RBI keeps tweaking the total amount of money in the economy to ensure smooth functioning by two types of policies:

    (I) Loose Monetary Policy

    When the RBI wants to boost economic activity it adopts a so-called “loose monetary policy”.

    There are two parts to such a policy:

    1. RBI injects more money (liquidity) into the economy: It does so by buying government bonds from the market. As the RBI buys these bonds, it pays back money to the bondholders, thus injecting more money into the economy.
    2. RBI also lowers the interest rate: it charges banks when it lends money to them; this rate is called the repo rate. Lower interest rates and more liquidity, together, are expected to boost both consumption and production in the economy.

    (II) Tight Monetary Policy

    • It involves the RBI raising interest rates and sucking liquidity out of the economy by selling bonds (and taking money out of the system).
    • When any central bank finds that a loose monetary policy has started becoming counterproductive in reducing inflation, the central bank “normalizes the policy” by tightening the monetary policy stance.

    What is Reverse Repo?

    • An interest rate that the RBI pays to the commercial banks when they park their excess “liquidity” (money) with the RBI.
    • The reverse repo, thus, is the exact opposite of the repo rate.
    • Under normal a circumstance, that is when the economy is growing at a healthy pace, the repo rate becomes the benchmark interest rate in the economy.
    • That’s because it is the lowest rate of interest at which funds can be borrowed.
    • As such, the repo rate forms the floor interest rate for all other interest rates in the economy — be it the rate you pay for a car loan or a home loan or the interest you earn on your fixed deposit, etc.

    How does Reverse Repo fit into policy normalization?

    • Imagine a scenario where the RBI pumps more and more liquidity into the market but there are no takers of fresh loans.
    • This is because the banks are unwilling to lend or because there is no genuine demand for new loans in the economy.
    • In such a scenario, the action shifts from repo rate to reverse repo rate because banks are no longer interested in borrowing money from the RBI.
    • Rather they are more interested in parking their excess liquidity with the RBI. And that is how the reverse repo becomes the actual benchmark interest rate in the economy.

    What does reverse repo normalization mean?

    • Simply put, it means the reverse repo rates will go up.
    • Over the past few months, in the face of rising inflation, several central banks across the world have either increased interest rates or signaled that they would do so soon.
    • In India, too, it is expected that the RBI will raise the repo rate.
    • But before that, it is expected that the RBI will raise the reverse repo rate and reduce the gap between the two rates.
    • In the immediate aftermath of Covid, RBI had increased this gap.

    Implications of such policy

    • Incentivize commercial banks to park excess funds with RBI, thus sucking some liquidity out of the system.
    • The next step would be raising the repo rate.
    • This process of normalization, which is aimed at curbing inflation, will not only reduce excess liquidity but also result in higher interest rates across the board in the Indian economy.
    • This will help reduce the demand for money among consumers (since it would make more sense to just keep the money in the bank) and make it costlier for businesses to borrow fresh loans.

    Try this PYQ from CSP 2020:

    Q.If the RBI decides to adopt an expansionist monetary policy, which of the following it would NOT do?

    1. Cut and optimize the statutory liquidity ratio
    2. Increase the Marginal Standing Facility Rate
    3. Cut the Bank Rate and Repo Rate

    Select the correct answer using the code given below:

    (a) 1 and 2 only

    (b) 2 only

    (c) 1 and 3 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”sr109h9q0i” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here:[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

     

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  • India’s economy and the challenge of informality

    Context

    Despite efforts by the government, formalisation of economy still eludes us.

    Prevalence of informality in India

    • Despite witnessing rapid economic growth over the last two decades, 90% of workers in India have remained informally employed, producing about half of GDP. 
    • Combining the International Labour Organization’s widely agreed upon template of definitions with India’s official definition (of formal jobs as those providing at least one social security benefit — such as EPF), the share of formal workers in India stood at 9.7% (47.5 million).
    • The prevalence of informal employment is also widespread in the non-agriculture sector.
    • About half of informal workers are engaged in non-agriculture sectors which spread across urban and rural areas.
    • Industries thriving without paying taxes are only the tip of the informal sector’s iceberg.
    • What remains hidden are the large swathes of low productivity informal establishments working as household and self-employment units which represent “petty production”.
    • To conflate the two distinct segments of the informal sector would be a serious conceptual error.

    Fiscal perspective of formalisation

    • Efforts to encourage formalisation: Currency demonetisation, introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), digitalisation of financial transactions and enrolment of informal sector workers on numerous government Internet portals are all meant to encourage the formalisation of the economy.
    • The formal sector is more productive than the informal sector, and formal workers have access to social security benefits.
    • The above-mentioned efforts are based on the “fiscal perspective” of formalisation.
    • This perspective appears to draw from a strand of thought advanced by some international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, which foregrounds the persistence of the informal sector to excessive state regulation of enterprises and labour which drives genuine economic activity outside the regulatory ambit.
    • Hence, it is believed that simplifying registration processes, easing rules for business conduct, and lowering the standards of protection of formal sector workers will bring informal enterprises and their workers into the fold of formality.

    Issues with fiscal perspective

    •  Early on, in an attempt to promote employment, India protected small enterprises engaged in labour intensive manufacturing by providing them with fiscal concessions and regulating large-scale industry by licensing.
    • Such measures led to many labour-intensive industries getting diffused into the informal/unorganised sectors.
    • Further, they led to the formation of dense output and labour market inter-linkages between the informal and formal sectors via sub-contracting and outsourcing arrangements (quite like in labour abundant Asian economies).
    • While such policy initiatives may have encouraged employment, bringing the enterprises which benefited from the policy into the tax net has been a challenge.
    • Political and economic reasons operating at the regional/local level in a competitive electoral democracy are responsible for this phenomenon, too.

    Role of underdevelopment

    • Global evidence suggests that the view that legal and regulatory hurdles alone are mainly responsible for holding back formalisation does not hold much water.
    • A well-regarded study, ‘Informality and Development’ argues that the persistence of informality is, in fact, a sign of underdevelopment.
    • The finding suggests that informality decreases with economic growth, albeit slowly.
    •  A similar association is also evident across major States in India, based on official PLFS data.
    • Hence, the persistence of a high share of informal employment in total employment seems nothing but a lack of adequate growth or continuation of underdevelopment.

    Impact of pandemic

    • Research by the State Bank of India recently reported the economy formalised rapidly during the pandemic year of 2020-21, with the informal sector’s GDP share shrinking to less than 20%, from about 50% a few years ago — close to the figure for developed countries.
    • These findings of a sharp contraction of the informal sector during the pandemic year (2020-21) do not represent a sustained structural transformation.
    • They are a temporary (and unfortunate) outcome of the pandemic and severe lockdowns imposed in 2020 and 2021.

    Way forward

    • Policy efforts directed at bringing the informal sector into the fold of formality fail to appreciate that the bulk of the informal units and their workers are essentially petty producers eking their subsistence out of minimal resources.
    •  The economy will get formalised when informal enterprises become more productive through greater capital investment and increased education and skills are imparted to its workers.

    Consider the question “What are the reasons for persistent informality in India? Suggest the way to ensure the smooth transition to the formality.”

    Conclusion

    Policy efforts to formalise the economy will have limited results as the bulk of informal units are petty producers.

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  • Bank Frauds in India

    1. Poor banking governance: Most frauds show that banks did not observe due diligence, both before and after disbursing loans. Poor level of checks and balances in the banking system is one of the reason.
    2. Poor monitoring: Lack of technology and fraud monitoring agencies to detect frauds makes the problem more complex. There is an absence of an effective mechanism to monitor the credit flow. Flawed risk-mitigation design, which creates an excessive focus on credit or market risks, but focuses less on operational risks also leading to more breaches.
    3. Technological backwardness: Excessive dependence on manual supervision, at both external and internal levels makes it impossible to manually control and supervise the sheer volume of transactions.
    4. Immoral behaviour: The disintegrating moral fibre of Indian businessmen, bankers and other white-collar professionals, nepotism in internal committees of banks, unnecessary political interventions lead to increased frauds.
    5. Political interference: The political pulls and pressures on investigating agencies, and long-drawn processes of legal system act less as a deterrent.

     

  • The consequences of an ill-considered green strategy

    Context

    Europe’s push for renewable energy at the cost of conventional fuel may end up causing a global food crisis.

    Consequences of fuel shortage in Western Europe

    • Since August 2021, Western Europe has faced a problem with renewable energy – the wind doesn’t always blow when needed and the sun doesn’t always shine.
    • Commodity markets across the world operate on a balance of demand and supply — even seemingly “small” changes in either side of a few percentage points can push the prices up or down sharply.
    • High energy bills: Higher gas prices have pushed up energy bills for households and are expected to impact household spending and consumption as well.
    • High urea prices: Natural gas is used to produce urea – if gas prices go up, fertiliser also becomes expensive.
    •  Some poor and middle-income countries are already starting to face problems of fertiliser availability — there are reports from several Indian states as well. 
    • High food prices: The impact of expensive fertiliser will be felt some months down the line as expensive fertiliser and reduced harvests push up food prices.
    • India is relatively less affected as the share of natural gas in the country’s energy mix is low but will still face problems due to high food prices.
    • In 2007-08, when oil prices were high, there was a push to use “biofuels” led by the US and Europe.
    •  The effects of the 2008 food price crisis were felt around the world, especially by the poor.

    Lessons for India

    • Cheap and reliable energy sources should not be abandoned until the alternatives have been stringently stress tested.
    • India will be especially hard hit if oil prices spike as it imports close to 1.4 billion barrels of oil annually.

    Consider the question “What are the inherent dangers in rapid transition to the green energy? Suggest the way forward for India.”

    Conclusion

    A blind push to shut down traditional sources of energy and move to less reliable “clean” energy can have second and third order effects.

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  • Dealing with the macroeconomic uncertainties

    Context

    Macroeconomic uncertainties are mounting.

    Impact of US Fed’s decision

    • Against the backdrop of possible interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the taper tantrum, there is pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to increase its interest rates to prevent capital outflows.
    • The monetary policy corridor is still “accommodative” to support the growth recovery.
    • Globally, central banks have started increasing the interest rates.

    Macroeconomic uncertainties

    1] Inflationary pressure

    •  In India, the wholesale price index (WPI) inflation rose to a record high of 14.32% in November 2021 as per the data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
    • The consumer price index (CPI) inflation now is 5.03%, though that is still within the comfort zone of the inflation targeting framework envisaged in India’s new monetary framework.
    • The official nominal inflation anchor in India is 4%, with a band of variations of +/- 2. 

    2] Absorbing excess liquidity

    • The RBI Financial Stability Report, published on December 29, 2021, revealed a possible worsening of the gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio of scheduled commercial banks — from 6.9% in September 2021 to 9.5% by September 2022.
    • Absorbing the excess liquidity that was injected to stimulate growth as part of the pandemic response is crucial to reversing trends in non performing assets (NPAs).
    • Absorption of excess liquidity was attempted by increasing the cut-off yield rate of variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) to 3.99%, and curtailing the government securities acquisition programme.

    3] Interest rate structure and implications for government borrowing

    •  The call money market rates are below the repo rate.
    • The bond yields are increasing ahead of the Union Budget 2022-23.
    • The rise in bond yields will result in higher borrowing costs for the Government.

    Way forward for fiscal policy

    • Maintain accommodative policy stance: Given these macroeconomic uncertainties, maintaining an accommodative fiscal policy stance in the upcoming Union Budget for FY23 is crucial for a sustainable recovery.
    • Don’t focus on fiscal consolidation: Any attempt at fiscal consolidation at this juncture employing capital expenditure compression rather than a tax buoyancy path can adversely affect economic growth. 
    •  Public investment — infrastructure investment in particular — is a major growth driver through “crowding-in” of private corporate investment.
    • Strengthening investments in the health-care sector is crucial at this juncture as a prolonged lockdown can accentuate the current humanitarian crisis and deepen economic disruptions.
    • When credit-linked economic stimulus has an uneven impact on growth recovery, the significance of fiscal dominance cannot be undermined.
    • Address unemployment: Rising unemployment needs to be addressed through an urgent policy response that strengthens job guarantee programmes.

    Conclusion

    The upcoming Union Budget for 2022-23 should maintain an accommodative fiscal stance in order to support the sustainability of the economic growth process and also for financing human development.

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  • What is a K-shaped Economic Recovery?

    Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has said that the government needed to do more to prevent a K-shaped recovery of the economy hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

    K-Shaped Recovery

    • A K-shaped recovery occurs when, following a recession, different parts of the economy recover at different rates, times, or magnitudes.
    • This is in contrast to an even, uniform recovery across sectors, industries, or groups of people.
    • A K-shaped recovery leads to changes in the structure of the economy or the broader society as economic outcomes and relations are fundamentally changed before and after the recession.
    • This type of recovery is called K-shaped because the path of different parts of the economy when charted together may diverge, resembling the two arms of the Roman letter “K.”

    Try these PYQ:

     

    Q.Economic growth in country X will necessarily have to occur if-

     

    (a) There is technical progress in the world economy

    (b) There is population growth in X

    (c) There is capital formation in X

    (d) The volume of trade grows in the world economy

    Implications of a K-Shaped Recovery

    • Households at the bottom have experienced a permanent loss of income in the forms of jobs and wage cuts; this will be a recurring drag on demand, if the labour market does not heal faster.
    • To the extent that Covid has triggered an effective income transfer from the poor to the rich, this will be demand-impeding because the poor tend to spend-instead of saving.
    • If Covid-19 reduces competition or increases the inequality of incomes and opportunities, it could impinge on trend growth in developing economies by hurting productivity and tightening political economy constraints.

    Also read:

    Shapes of Economic Recovery

     

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  • A chance to support growth, fiscal consolidation

    Context

    The adverse effect of the third wave of COVID-19, which is mainly affecting the last quarter of 2021-22, may call for a further downward adjustment in the growth rate to about 9%.

    Growth in FY 2021-22

    •  As per the NSO’s advance estimates, at the end of 2021-22, the magnitude of GDP in real terms is estimated at INR₹147.5-lakh crore that is only a shade higher than INR₹145.7-lakh crore in 2019-20.
    • Thus, due to the three waves of COVID-19 that India has experienced, two years of real growth in economic activities have been wiped out. 
    • As per the advance estimates, the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) relative to GDP at current prices stands at 29.6% in 2021-22.
    • Capacity utilisation in India continues to have considerable slack.
    • Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) also shows a low growth of 6.9% in 2021-22.
    • Any pick-up in demand would continue to be constrained by low-income growth in sectors characterised by a high marginal propensity to consume (MPC) such as the trade, transport, et al. sector and the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise (MSME) sector more broadly.
    • It may thus be prudent to expect a real GDP growth in the range of 6%-7%.
    • Growth in 2022-23 would also continue to be constrained by supply-side bottlenecks and high prices of global crude and primary products.
    • Growth in 2022-23 would depend on the basic determinants such as the saving and investment rates in the economy.

    Suggestions

    • Extend GST compensation period: The GST compensation provision would also come to an end in June 2022.
    • This would cause a major revenue shock at least for some States such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh.
    • While this matter may be considered by the GST Council, the compensation arrangement should be extended by two years in some modified form.
    • With respect to non-tax receipts, the scope of the National Monetization Pipeline (NMP) may be extended to cover monetisation of government-owned land assets.
    • Disinvestment initiatives may have to be accelerated.
    • Expenditure prioritisation in 2022-23 should focus on reviving both consumption and investment demand.
    • Urban counterpart to MGNREGA: Since consumption demand remains weak, some fiscal support in the form of an urban counterpart to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) may be considered.

    Focusing on fiscal consolidation

    • It would be appropriate now to consider a graduated return to fiscal consolidation while using fiscal policy to lay the base for faster growth in the years to come.
    • The Fifteenth Finance Commission had suggested a fiscal consolidation path where the Centre’s fiscal deficit was benchmarked at 5.5% of GDP for 2022-23.
    • In their pessimistic scenario, it was kept at 6% of GDP. 
    • It may be prudent to limit the reduction in fiscal deficit-GDP ratio to about 1% point of GDP in 2022-23.
    • This would imply a fiscal deficit in the range of 5.5%-6% of GDP.
    • From here on, a stepwise reduction of 0.5% points per year would enable a level of about 4% of GDP by 2025-26.
    • By this time, as suggested by the Fifteenth Finance Commission, a high-powered inter-governmental group should be constituted to re-examine the sustainability parameters of debt and fiscal deficit of the central and state governments.

    Conclusion

    Expenditure prioritisation in 2022-23 should focus on reviving both consumption and investment demand while aiming for the gradual return to the fiscal consolidation.

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