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GS Paper: GS3

  • [op-ed of the day] The flawed spin to India’s cotton story

    Context

    This year, India is expected to be the world’s largest cotton producer, surpassing China in output. However, India’s productivity (yield per unit area), is much lower than other major cotton-producing countries.

    India’s experience with cotton

    • India is the only country growing hybrids: India is the only country that grows cotton as hybrids and the first to develop hybrid cotton back in 1970.
      • What are hybrids: Hybrids are made by crossing two parent strains having different genetic characters.
      • Greater yields: These plants have more biomass than both parents, and capacity for greater yields.
      • Require more inputs: They also require more inputs, including fertilizer and water.
      • Expensive seed production: Though hybrid cottonseed production is expensive, requiring manual crossing, India’s low cost of manual labour makes it economically viable.
      • Rest of the countries: All other cotton-producing countries grow cotton, not as hybrids but varieties for which seeds are produced by self-fertilization.
    • Key issues with the use of hybrids
      • Hybrid seed cannot be propagated over generations: A key difference between hybrids and varieties is that varieties can be propagated over successive generations by collecting seeds from one planting and using them for the next planting.
      • Purchasing the seeds is must: Hybrid seeds have to be remade for each planting by crossing the parents. So for hybrids, farmers must purchase seed for each planting, but not for varieties.
      • Pricing control to the companies: Using hybrids gives pricing control to the seed company and also ensures a continuous market.
      • Increased yield used as justification for high prices: Increased yield from a hybrid is supposed to justify the high cost of hybrid seeds.
      • However, for cotton, a different strategy using high-density planting (HDP) of compact varieties has been found to outperform hybrids at the field level.

    Cotton planting strategies

    • What other countries do?
      • Compact and short-duration varieties: For over three decades, most countries have been growing cotton varieties that are compact and short duration.
      • 5kg seeds/acre: These varieties are planted at high density (5 kg seeds/acre).
      • These varieties have 5-10 bolls per plant.
    • What is done in India?
      • Low density and long duration: Hybrids in India are bushy, long duration and planted at a ten-fold lower density.
      • 0.5 kg seeds/acre: Hybrids are planted at a lower density of 0.5kg/acre.
    • Which strategy is more beneficial?
      • The lower boll production by compact varieties (5-10 bolls per plant) compared to hybrids (20-100 bolls/plant) is more than compensated by the ten-fold greater planting density.
      • Experience of Brazil: The steep increase in productivity for Brazil, from 400 to 1,000 kg/hectare lint between 1994 and 2000 coincides with the large-scale shift to a non-GM compact variety.

    Why should India opt for short duration variety?

    • Cotton being a dryland crop: Cotton is a dryland crop and 65% of the area under cotton in India is rain-fed.
      • Advantage of short duration variety in the rain-fed area: Farmers with insufficient access to groundwater in these areas are entirely dependent on rain. Here, the shorter duration variety has a major advantage as it reduces dependence on irrigation and risk.
      • Particularly late in the growing season when soil moisture drops following the monsoon’s withdrawal.
      • This period is when bolls develop and water requirement is the highest.
    • Productivity and input costs of the varieties: It has more than twice the productivity.
      • Half the fertilizer (200 kg/ha for hybrids versus 100 kg/ha for varieties).
      • Reduced water requirement.
      • And less vulnerability to damage from insect pests due to a shorter field duration.

    Impact of Policy

    • Why India persisted with hybrids during 1980-2002
      • Two phases of policy have contributed to this situation.
      • The first phase- Before GM cotton: The answers lie with the agricultural research establishment.
      • The second phase: The phase where the question of hybrids versus compact varieties could have been considered, was at the stage of GM regulation when Bt cotton was being evaluated for introduction into India.
      • International experience not taken into account: It would not have been out of place to have evaluated the international experience, including the context of the introduction of this new technology.
      • Agro-economic conditions were not taken into account: Importantly, agro-economic conditions where it would be used should have been a guiding factor.
      • The narrow scope of evaluation: The scope of evaluation by the GM regulatory process in India was narrow, and did not take this into account.
      • Consequently, commercial Bt hybrids have completely taken over the market, accompanied by the withdrawal of public sector cottonseed production.

    Key takeaways

      • Frist–Outcome of technology depends upon the context: Outcome of using a technology such as Bt is determined by the context in which it is deployed, and not just by the technology itself.
        • Negative fallout: If the context is suboptimal and does not prioritise the needs of the principal stakeholders (farmers), it can have significant negative fallouts, especially in India with a high proportion being marginal and subsistence farmers.
      • Second–Better consultation in policy: There is a need for better consultation in policy, be it agriculture as a whole or crop-wise.
        • Socioeconomic consideration in GMO risk assessment: India is a signatory to international treaties on GMO regulation (the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety), which specifically provide for the inclusion of socio-economic considerations in GMO risk assessment.
        • However, socioeconomic and need-based considerations have not been a part of the GMO regulatory process in India.

    Conclusion

    Given the distress, the cotton-growing farmers are facing this is the right time to review the grounds on which Bt cotton was introduced in India.

  • [op-ed snap] Think climate change action, act glocal

    Context

    The recent global climate summit, the annual Conference of the Parties (COP25), held in Madrid was a failure and that the multilateral process to address the climate crisis is broken. The growing global stalemate gives India the chance to focus on the State and sub-State levels.

    COP 25 at Madrid and what future prospects

    • Wealthy countries disowning responsibility: At several discussions on finance, ambition, transparency of support and pre-2020 action, wealthy countries were recalcitrant.
      • Disavowing obligations: Although responsible for using the bulk of the carbon space in the atmosphere, they now disavow their obligations. With some even denying anthropogenic climate change.
      • Complete severance of science from negotiations: At this stage, there is a complete severance of climate science from the negotiations and agreements at the global level.
      • The question is, what can we do now?
    • What can happen at the next COP?
      • Hope of little change: The next COP will be held at Glasgow, U.K. (in late 2020) and there may be little change in the outcomes.
      • The global political order may not alter much. The fact that we live in an unequal and unjust world is not going to change either.
    • What else can happen on the global level?
      • Right leader: The right political leaders could nudge action in a new direction.
      • Green New Deal could pass: Younger members could be elected to the U.S. Congress and the Green New Deal could pass sometime in 2021.
      • Growing activism: In the meantime, climate activism is increasing awareness and having some success in removing insurance and financial support for fossil fuel companies. But these kinds of changes will occur slowly.
      • Participation of other stakeholders at next COP: At least one expert has called for a parallel action COP at future summits where sub-state actors, civil society groups, non-governmental organisations and academics can share ideas and nudge action.

    The chance for India to develop climate change action at State and Sub-state level

    • Chance to develop climate change action: The stalemate at the global level offers India the opportunity to focus earnestly on developing its climate change action at State and sub-State levels.
      • Peripheral status of climate change: In the states, the environment and climate continue to be relegated to peripheral status.
      • Damage to the environment: This neglect has led to the destruction of ecosystems, forests, water-bodies and biodiversity.
      • Vulnerability and economic costs of the neglect: Numerous studies have shown the high economic and ecological costs and loss of lives due to extreme events.
      • We do not need more data to stimulate action. As is also well recognised, India is extremely vulnerable to the effects of warming.

    Progress made by the states so far

    • The first round of SAPCCs: With support from bilateral agencies, States initially took different approaches in the first round of State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCCs).
      • Some of them set up separate climate change cells while some collaborated with academic institutions.
      • A few produced detailed action plans while others developed strategy documents.
      • Still, others integrated improvements in energy efficiency (contributing to reducing emissions), while almost all focused on adaptation.
    • The synergy between climate change and development:
      • Attention to climate change offers co-benefits to India for development. For instance-
      • Efficiency reduces pollution: Improving energy efficiency in industry reduces costs and local pollution.
      • Transport and congestion: Improving public transport reduces congestion, pollution and improves access.
      • Natural farming and fertilisers: Using natural farming methods reduces fossil fuel-based fertilizers, improves soil health and biodiversity.
      • These examples show that there are synergies in the steps to be taken for good development and climate change.
    • Next round of SAPCCs and strategies
      • The next round of the SAPCCs is being drawn up, under recommendations from the Centre.
      • Where should be the focus? The focus ought to be on integrating the response to climate change with the development plan in different departments.
      • States together to contribute NDCs: Since the States together are to deliver the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that India has promised, it means that they require guidance from the Centre.
      • Unfortunately, most State government departments are handling climate change as a fringe issue and do not seem to recognise its urgency.

    Integration of various sectors for climate action

    • Identification of sectors: Line departments for government schemes and programmes in key development sectors, such as agriculture, transport and water, should be identified for carefully integrating actions that respond to climate change.
      • Integration at district level: This integration should also take place at district and sub-district levels. But only a demonstration of its success in some departments would show how this can be done.
      • The realisation of climate as an important issue: But first and foremost, States need to get the signal that climate is an urgent issue.
    • Funds for implementing SAPCCs
      • How funds for implementing SAPCCs will be obtained is not clear.
      • There will not be enough from the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund and bilateral agencies to support all States unless new sources are found.
      • Use of coal cess: The coal cess in India is a good initiative, and as others have pointed out, could be used for environment and climate-related expenses.
      • Alternative sources: Alternative sources from high emissions’ industries and practices would be an option, but still probably insufficient.

    Way forward

    • Performance analysis of first SAPCCs: There is also needs to be a clear analysis of how the first round of action plans fared.
      • Challenges and performance: What were the challenges and how did they perform?
      • Reasons for success and failures: Which approaches and projects were successful and ought to be scaled up and what lessons do the failures offer?
      • Finally, what institutional structure works best?
    • Need for the greenhouse gas inventory: The country needs reliable greenhouse gas inventories.
      • Individual research groups and the civil society initiative, GHG Platform India, have been producing such inventories.
      • Such inventories would be useful in synchronising and co-ordinating State and Central mitigation programmes.
    • Programmes with longer timelines: States must also develop their programmes with longer timelines.
      • With mid-course correction based on lessons and successes that can be integrated into the next stage of the plan.
      • If the second round of SAPCCs were treated as an entry point to long-term development strategy, the States and the country would be better prepared for climate change.
    • Ultimately, climate should be part and parcel of all thinking on development.

     

  • [op-ed snap] Where demand has gone

    Context

    That India is in the midst of a serious economic slowdown is no longer in question. The debates are now mostly about what to do about it.

    Where is the GDP growth coming from?

    Fall in consumption expenditure in absolute terms: The leaked National Sample Survey (NSS) consumer expenditure data -shows that real monthly per capita expenditure has in fact fallen in absolute terms between 2011-12 and 2017-18.

    • 8 % decline in a rural area: In rural areas, consumption expenditure decreased by 8.8 per cent.
    • 2% decline in an urban area: While in urban areas it increased by 2 per cent, leading to an all India decline of 3.7 per cent.
    • Where is the growth coming from: If average consumer expenditure is down, then where is the GDP growth coming from?
      • Consumer expenditure contribution: After all, according to National Accounts Statistics (NAS) consumer expenditure is around 60 per cent of the GDP.
      • And given the other contributors to GDP-investment and government spending- are not growing spectacularly, consumer expenditure should be growing rather than decreasing.
      • So, to get an overall 5 per cent growth rate, consumer expenditure should be growing at higher than 5 per cent.
    • NSS vs. NAS- a genuine puzzle: How can consumption expenditure be going down in absolute terms according to the NSS estimates and be growing at more than 5 per cent according to the NAS?
      • Variation in data a norm: That these two types of estimates of consumption expenditure do not match is well-known, and that is the case in other countries as well.
      • The discrepancy at alarming proportions: In the 1970s, consumer expenditure according to NSS estimates was around 90 per cent of consumer expenditure according to NAS, but in 2017-18 it was only 32.3 per cent.
      • Data from two different countries: It is as if we are looking at data from two different countries.
      • One where the consumption expenditure growth is positive and propping up the GDP growth rate and the other where it is actually falling.

    A few inferences that pertain to the state of the economy and the policy options.

    • Reasons for the discrepancy between NSS data and NAS data.
    • First- Presence of large informal sector:
      • 50% contribution to GDP: Informal sector accounts for nearly half of the GDP and employs 85 per cent of the labour force.
      • Guesswork on performance: In national income accounts, growth in the informal sector is estimated by extrapolating from the performance of the formal sector. Which is largely guesswork.
    • Second- Making effects of the expansionary policy less pronounced:
      • Expansionary fiscal policy more effective than appear to be: Because of the presence of the informal sector, expansionary fiscal policy will be more effective than what would appear from official statistics, as a big part of its impact will be felt in the informal sector.
      • Why is it so? The reason is that a big segment of the population is located in the informal sector; they are poorer and tend to spend a much higher fraction of their income on consumption.
      • This group has been seriously affected by the economic slowdown.
    • Third-Results of expansionary policy would be apparent after a delay
      • Apparent effects of policy much worse than what it would be: The effect of an expansionary policy on the budget deficit will look much worse than what it would be since the estimates of its effect on income expansion and tax collection will be largely based on the formal sector.
      • Informal sector boosting the formal sector: Some of the income generated in the informal sector will boost demand in the formal sector through consumer demand for mass-consumption items (for instance, biscuits, as opposed to automobiles).
      • Good medium-term pictures: Therefore, in the medium term, once the engine of the economy starts moving, the income expansion and deficit numbers will look better.
    • Final-Tax cuts will achieve little
      • Only 3-5% population affected: The tax cut will affect barely 3-5 per cent of the adult population.
      • Contribution of taxes in GDP: Income tax revenues amount to around 5 per cent of the GDP and corporate income taxes around 3.3 per cent.
      • Rich tends to save more: Most of the tax is paid by the richest among these groups (the top 5 per cent taxpayers contribute 60 per cent of individual income tax revenue), and the rich tend to spend a smaller fraction of their income (and save more).
      • Little impact on GDP: Irrespective of the number of people affected, and even if they spend the entire increase in their income as a result of the tax cut, the overall economic impact will be small relative to the GDP.
      • The futility of tax cut: Therefore, a tax cut for the rich would be less effective in raising spending compared to an equivalent amount being given to poorer groups who spend a much higher fraction of their incomes.

    Conclusion

    The government should not underestimate the role of the informal sector in the economy. To get the engine of the economy revving, an expansionary fiscal policy that harnesses the energy of the informal sector to boost aggregate demand is the order of the day.

     

     

  • World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2020

    The report World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2020 (WESO) was recently released.

    About the Report

    • The WESO report is an initiative of the International Labour Organization (ILO).
    • ILO forecasts that unemployment will rise by about 2.5 million this year.
    • The ILO is a UN agency whose mandate is to advance social justice and promote decent work by setting international labour standards.
    • The report analyses key labour market issues, including unemployment, labour underutilization, working poverty, income inequality, labour income share and factors that exclude people from decent work.

    Highlights of the report

    • Global unemployment is projected to increase by around 2.5 million in 2020.
    • The number of people unemployed around the world stands at some 188 million.
    • In addition, 165 million people do not have enough paid work, and 120 million have either given up actively searching for work or otherwise lack access to the labour market.
    • In total, more than 470 million people worldwide are affected, the report said.
    • Almost half a billion people are working fewer paid hours than they would like or lack adequate access to paid work.
    • Not enough new jobs are being generated to absorb new entrants to the labour market.

    Data on working poverty

    • Currently working poverty (defined as earning less than USD 3.20 per day in purchasing power parity terms) affects more than 630 million workers, or one in five of the global working population.
    • Inequalities related to gender, age and geographical location continue to plague the job market, with the report showing that these factors limit both individual opportunity and economic growth.
    • Some 267 million young people aged 15-24 are not in employment, education or training, and many more endure substandard working condition.

  • Global Risks Report 2020

    The top five risks to humanity are recently published in the Global Risks Report of the World Economic Forum (WEF).

    Top five risks

    • An important finding of the report is that today’s younger generation, consisting of “Millenials” born after 1980 have ranked environmental risks higher than other older respondents in the short- and long-terms.
    • According to the report, the top five risks by likelihood over the next decade are:
    1. Extreme weather events like floods and storms
    2. Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
    3. Major natural disasters like earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and geomagnetic storms
    4. Major biodiversity losses and ecosystem collapse
    5. Human-made environmental damage and disasters

    Top 5 risks by severity of impact over the next 10 years

    • Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
    • Weapons of mass destruction
    • Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
    • Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.)
    • Water crises

    Top most strongly connected global risks

    • Extreme weather events + failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
    • Large-scale cyber-attacks + breakdown of critical information infrastructure and networks
    • High structural unemployment or underemployment + adverse consequences of technological advances
    • Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse + failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
    • Food crises + extreme weather events

    Other risks

    • The report also warned about the increasing economic and societal costs due to non-communicable diseases and the lack of research on vaccines and drug resistance to address the threat of pandemics in the recent future.
    • “Economic confrontations” and “domestic political polarization” are significant short-term risks in 2020, the report said.
    • This is a warning for the global South including India and Africa where social unrest has seen a rise. For example, unrest has grown among India’s youth.

  • Carbon Disclosure Project Report 2019

    The Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) 2019 report was recently published.

    Carbon Disclosure Project

    • CDP is published by the Global Reporting Initiative.
    • It is aimed at measuring the carbon reduction activities undertaken by different companies and firms operating in various countries across the globe.
    • The report surveys corporate commitments to science-based targets (SBT) and evaluates the climate change risk that they are exposed to.

    India’s performance

    • India secured the 5th spot on the project report.
    • The CDP Report 2019 said that a total of 58 companies shared details about the environment-related activities undertaken by them in this year.
    • The report also claims that over 98 percent of top Indian companies have formed some type or committee or group within its organization to drive and address climate-related issues.
    • The report also showcased the changing mind-set of India Inc with nearly all major companies setting up some form of oversight to evaluate climate risk.

    Global scenario

    • The US topped the annual CDP report with 135 companies disclosing their climate-related activities, followed by Japan in the second position with 83 companies and the UK in the third position with 78 countries.
    • While France was placed fourth with 51 companies disclosing their details, India was placed fifth with 38 companies committing to the science-based targets.
    • In 2018, India had only 25 companies committing to the SBTs.
    • India is followed by Germany and Sweden with 30 and 27 companies respectively, while Switzerland and Spain had 23 and 22 companies respectively.
    • Netherlands was listed 10th on the list with 18 companies committing to SBT initiatives.

    Importance

    • India was ranked 5th, ahead of Germany and Sweden.
    • India is the first developing economy with a maximum number of companies committing to the science-based targets.

  • Vyom Mitra: ISRO’s half-humanoid

     

    ISRO unveiled its first ‘woman’ astronaut during the event ‘Human Spaceflight and Exploration’.

    Vyom Mitra

    • The AI-based robotic system is being developed at a robotics lab at the VSSC in Thiruvananthapuram.
    • Vyom Mitra will be used for an unmanned flight of ISRO’s GSLV III rocket in December 2020, which, along with a second unmanned flight in July 2021.
    • This will serve as the test of ISRO’s preparedness for its maiden manned space mission, Gaganyaan, being targeted for 2022 to mark 75 years of India’s independence.

    Functions of the humanoid

    • Vyommitra, equipped with a head, two arms and a torso, is built to mimic crew activity inside the crew module of Gaganyaan.
    • Attaining launch and orbital postures, responding to the environment, generating warnings, replacing carbon dioxide canisters, operating switches, monitoring of the crew module, receiving voice commands, responding via speech (bilingual) are among its functions listed.
    • It will have a human-like face, with lips synchronised for movement to mimic speech.
    • Once it is fully developed, Vyommitra will be able to use equipment on board the spacecraft’s crew module, like safety mechanisms and switches, as well as receive and act on commands sent from ground stations.

  • [op-ed of the day] Electricity 4.0: The future of power in the age of climate change

    Context

    Significance of electricity in our life

    • Interconnecting economic prosperity: Electrical energy is a juncture that inter-connects economic prosperity.
      • Amplifies social equity.
      • Ushers in a liveable environment for us.
      • No development in its true sense is possible if we leave aside energy and specifically sustainable energy.
      • It is almost indispensable for holistic and sustainable progress of any kind.

    Burning of fossil fuel and climate change

    • Singular reliance on fossil fuel: Ever since the industrial revolution, development has almost singularly relied on the burning of fossil fuels, emitting huge volumes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
      • 41% of electricity from coal: As per data by the World Coal Association, a little over 41% of all electricity generated is produced from coal.
      • Problems with coal: Burning coal for electricity production leads to-
      • High level of hazardous carbon emissions.
      • Rising levels of pollution: water and air pollution during mining and air pollution during burning.
      • Working condition of miners: Added to the disastrous working conditions of miners, coal cannot be regarded as a sustainable source of energy.
    • Global warming and climate change: Despite increasing awareness, not much is being done to mitigate climate change.
      • Rise over 1.5oC and Consequences: IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has reiterated that unless global temperature rise is not kept within 1.5 degrees Celsius, natural and human systems will be irreparably damaged.
      • Rise over  2o  C and Consequences: Even a slight increase in atmospheric temperature by 2 degrees Celsius will result in a substantial rise in sea levels.
      • Consequences for human life: The rise in sea level would, in turn, translate into a whopping 10 million more people going homeless and another 50% people facing severe water scarcity.
    • The aim of becoming carbon neutral: To join the efforts, many global public and private stakeholders have pledged their allegiance into becoming net-zero carbon emitters.
      • But we are still far from achieving our objectives, as the IEA (International Energy Agency) recently reported that the Earth’s temperature rise will range between 1.8 degrees Celsius and 2.7 degrees Celsius soon.

    Sustainable energy as a necessity

    • Energy efficiency and energy management: As the world is evolving into an interconnected form of world-of work, life and more-energy efficiency and energy management have slowly come to be a central driving force.
      • Sustainable energy a necessity: In order to power smart homes, industries, hospitals and other mission-critical operations, sustainable energy is no more a matter of choice, but of necessity.
      • IoT to help achieve energy efficiency: Technology adoptions like IoT and connected services can greatly enhance energy efficiencies and many global behemoths are coming to terms with this reality.
      • Demand for an alternative source of energy: Environmental factors, coupled with rising costs and stringent regulatory guidelines, are adding to the demand for alternative sources of energy.
      • Alternate as well as sustainable: The alternate sources are expected not only to satiate the growing consumption needs but are proven to be a sustainable option in the long run.

    Electricity 4.0

    • Electricity 4.0: That is, sustainable methods of energy generation and efficient and cost-effective usage of produced energy.
      • The sustainable energy need of the sustainable future: To lay the foundation stone for a sustainable future, there is a critical need to investigate how we create and consume energy.
      • The answer lies in renewables becoming the dominant source of power, globally.
    • A new form of energy mix: There is a growing need to build a new form of energy mix under Electricity 4.0, with renewable ways of electricity creation, at its very core. A new order where-
      • Electrical internet of things (EIOT).
      • Cloud computing.
      • Artificial intelligence.
      • And the tools of today’s digital era are fully leveraged to maximise energy efficiency.

    Way forward

    • Given that the major cause of global warming is Carbon Dioxide, so the first step to combat it would be-
    • Electrifying the planet: The augmented proliferation of energy-efficient, electricity-based equipments that are prevalent now, such as e-mobility, electrical heating, innovative applications such as electric aviation fleets can be one way to do that.
    • Scale up the production of renewable energy: The immediate need is to scale up the production of renewable electricity and build conducive public-policy frameworks to further this goal.
    • Adoption of digital technology: It is imperative to adopt digital technology in order to optimise the efficiency of our energy consumption and electrical networks. Digital connectivity, software and artificial intelligence can well be dubbed as the fulcrum that will support our transition toward Industry 4.0.
    • Concerted efforts from all stakeholders: To reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions or to promote energy decarbonisation, concerted efforts are required from all stakeholders – the community, regions, government and the private sector.

     

     

     

  •  [op-ed snap] Global warming puts forests, plantations in the country at risk

    Context

    Global warming, drought and El Niño may lead to increased forest fires.

    The success story of India

    • Reduced deforestation: India has succeeded in reducing deforestation to some extent through an effective Forest Conservation Act and large-scale afforestation programme.
      • Comparison with other countries: India performed better when compared with other forest-rich tropical countries such as Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
      • Without the Forest Conservation Act and its reasonably effective implementation, India would have lost significant extent of forest area.
    • Increased afforestation: India has also been implementing significant scale afforestation, though the rates of afforestation have declined recently.
      • Agro-forestry, involving raising fruit tree plantations contribute to some extent.
      • Commercial plantations of eucalyptus, casuarina, teak, poplar, etc., have been raised by farmers for commercial purposes.
      • The above steps have resulted in potentially reducing the pressure on natural forests.

    Need to measure ‘natural forest’

    • Increase in an area under forest: According to the latest biennial State of Forest Report (SFR) of the Forest Survey of India (FSI), an area under forests has been increasing.
    • Natural forests not specifically measured: It is not clear what percentage of increase in forest area is due to changes in natural forests which are generally rich in biodiversity.
      • The report doesn’t specify what percentage of change in area is due to commercial plantation and what percentage is contributed by horticulture or urban parks.
    • Need to define ‘natural forest’: What will be of most concern to forest and biodiversity conservation is to understand the status of natural forest and biodiversity.
      • India can use the same definition of forests but must estimate and report the area under natural forests and other forest plantation categories.
      • India needs to define ‘natural forests’ first, further, this would involve additional staff time and resources.
    • The resilience of natural forests to forest fires: Tropical forests rich in biodiversity are likely to be more resilient than monoculture dominated plantations or exotics.
      • Vulnerability to forest fires varies from forests to forests: Studies by the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) have shown that degraded forests, fragmented forests and biodiversity-poor forests are more vulnerable to climate change.

    Climate change and its impacts

    • IPCC reports on large scale loss: The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports have repeatedly concluded that climate change will lead to large-scale loss of biodiversity, before the end of the current century or even earlier.
    • Modelling studies by IISc.: Preliminary modelling studies by Indian Institute of Science (IISc) have shown that about 20% of forests will be impacted by climate change.
      • No change to adapt: The modelling studies means that existing forest biodiversity and its structure and composition will not be able to adapt to the new climate and there could be mortality or forest dieback.
    • The threat of forest fires: Further, warming, drought and El Niño will lead to increased forest fires, and may even be favourable to forest pests.
      • Unfortunately, the models currently in use for assessing the impact of climate change are not suitable for the complex and highly diverse forest types that exist in India.

    Conclusions

    • Given that global warming will continue, India will have to brace itself to adapt to the impending impacts. In India, there is very limited research on climate change and its impacts on forests, putting our famed biodiversity-rich country status under threat.
    • India needs to realistically assess, monitor and model climate change and its impacts and be prepared to adapt to impending climate change.

  • Thirty Metre Telescope (TMT) in Hawaii

     

    India, a partner in the construction of one of the largest telescopes in the world, TMT, has said it wants the project to be moved out of the proposed site at Mauna Kea, a dormant volcano in Hawaii.

    Thirty Metre Telescope

    • The TMT is a proposed astronomical observatory with an extremely large telescope (ELT) that has become the source of controversy over its planned location on Mauna Kea on the island of Hawaii in the US state of Hawaii.
    • It is being built by an international collaboration of government organisations and educational institutions, at a cost of $1.4 billion.
    • “Thirty Metre” refers to the 30-metre diameter of the mirror, with 492 segments of glass pieced together, which makes it three times as wide as the world’s largest existing visible-light telescope.
    • The larger the mirror, the more light a telescope can collect, which means, in turn, that it can “see” farther, fainter objects.
    • It would be more than 200 times more sensitive than current telescopes and would be able to resolve objects 12 times better than the Hubble Space Telescope.

    Utility of the telescope

    • One of its key uses will be the study of exoplanets, many of which have been detected in the last few years, and whether their atmospheres contain water vapour or methane — the signatures of possible life.
    • For the first time in history, this telescope will be capable of detecting extraterrestrial life.
    • The study of black holes is another objective.
    • While these have been observed in detail within the Milky Way, the next galaxy is 100 times farther away; the TMT will help bring them closer.