đŸ’„Join UPSC 2027,2028 Mentorship (July Batch) + XFactor Notes & Microthemes PDF
Talk to Mentor

Civilsdaily

Login

GS Paper: Population & Associated Issues

  • MHA annual report underlines need to update NPR

    The Home Ministry in its latest annual report has underlined the need to update the National Population Register (NPR) database across the country, except Assam.

    What did the MHA say?

    • The report said the NPR is prepared under various provisions of the Citizenship Rules, 2003, framed under the Citizenship Act, 1955.
    • In 2015, a few fields such as name, gender, date and place of birth, place of residence and father’s and mother’s name were updated and Aadhaar, mobile and ration card numbers were collected.
    • To incorporate the changes due to birth, death and migration, the MHA pressed the need to update it again.

    What is National Population Register (NPR)?

    • The NPR is a Register of usual residents of the country.
    • It is being prepared at the local (Village/sub-Town), sub-District, District, State and National level.
    • This is carried under provisions of the Citizenship Act 1955 and the Citizenship Rules, 2003 (Registration of Citizens and issue of National Identity Cards).
    • It is mandatory for every usual resident of India to register in the NPR.
    • A usual resident is defined for the purposes of NPR as a person who has resided in a local area for the past 6 months or more or a person who intends to reside in that area for the next 6 months or more.

    Why NPR is under fire?

    • Though NPR was first compiled in 2010 and updated in 2015, the new questions were part of a trial exercise involving 30 lakh respondents in September 2019.
    • The exercise has perceived the first step toward the compilation of the National Register of Indian Citizens (NRIC) according to Citizenship Rules, 2003.

    How are NRIC and NPR related?

    • Out of the NPR, a set of all usual residents of India, the government proposes to create a database of “citizens of India”.
    • Thus, the “National Register of Indian Citizens” (NRIC) is a sub-set of the NPR.
    • The NRIC will be prepared at the local, sub-district, district and State levels after verifying the citizenship status of the residents.
    • The rules say the particulars of every family and individual found in the Population Register shall be verified and scrutinized by the Local Registrar.

    How NPR is different from Census?

    • The census involves a detailed questionnaire — there were 29 items to be filled up in the 2011 census.
    • They are aimed at eliciting the particulars of every person, including age, sex, marital status, children, occupation, birthplace, mother tongue, religion, disability and whether they belonged to any SC or ST.
    • On the other hand, the NPR collects basic demographic data and biometric particulars.
    • While the census is legally backed by the Census Act, 1948, the NPR is a mechanism outlined in a set of rules framed under the Citizenship Act, 1955.

     

    Click and get your FREE Copy of CURRENT AFFAIRS Micro Notes

  • Urban planning can change the future of cities to happy cities

    Urban planningContext

    • In the recent few years, the growth of the economy and urbanization have accelerated. Rapid unplanned urbanization has put extreme pressure on natural resources.
    • Unplanned urbanization, however, exerts great strain on our cities. In fact, the Covid-19 pandemic has revealed the dire need for the planning and management of our cities.

    What does urban planning mean?

    • Urban planning, also known as regional planning, town planning, city planning is a technical and political process that is focused on the development and design of land use and the built environment, including air, water, and the infrastructure passing into and out of urban areas, such as transportation, communications, and distribution networks and their accessibility.

    What are ‘Happy Cities’?

    • A term that follows the Green City, Sustainable City, Liveable City, in the lingo of urban planning

    What is a smart city?

    • A smart city is one that uses information and communication technologies to enhance citizen engagement. It is a neo-vision which seeks to improve the delivery of services in urban areas. The following story maps out the steps being taken by India to explore this concept in practice.

    What is the Smart Cities Mission?

    • Sustainable cities: The Smart Cities Mission aims at developing 100 cities, which were shortlisted, into self-sustainable urban settlements.
    • Chronology: The mission was launched on June 25, 2015 and was projected as one aimed at transforming the process of urban development in the country.
    • Comprehensive revamp: Among its strategic components is ‘area-based development’, which includes city improvement (retrofitting), city renewal (redevelopment) and city extension (Greenfield development), plus a pan-city initiative in which ‘smart solutions’ are applied covering larger parts of the city.

    Fast Facts – Urbanization in India

    • Most Urbanized States: Tamil Nadu 43.9%; Maharashtra 4%; Gujarat  37.4%
    • 3 out of world’s 21 mega cities: Mumbai (19 mill); Delhi (15 mill); Kolkata (14 mill)

    Urban planningUrban planning challenges

    Planning

    • Many urban governments lack a modern planning framework
    • The multiplicity of local bodies obstructs efficient planning and land use
    • Rigid master plans and restrictive zoning regulations limit the land available for building, constricting cities’ abilities to grow in accordance with changing needs.

    Housing

    • Building regulations that limit urban density – such as floor space indexes – reduce the number of houses available, thereby pushing up property prices
    • Outdated rent control regulations reduce the number of houses available on rent – a critical option for the poor
    • Policy, planning, and regulation deficiencies lead to a proliferation of slums

    Service delivery

    • There is a strong bias towards adding physical infrastructure rather than providing financially and environmentally sustainable services

    Infrastructure

    • Most urban bodies do not generate the revenues needed to renew infrastructure, nor do they have the creditworthiness to access capital markets for funds
    • Urban transport planning needs to be more holistic – there is a focus on moving vehicles rather than meeting the needs of the large numbers of people who walk or ride bicycles in India’s towns and cities.

    Environment:

    • The deteriorating urban environment is taking a toll on people’s health and productivity and diminishing their quality of life.

    Urban planningSolution offered by NITI ayog committee report on urban planning

    • Demystifying Planning and Involving Citizens: While it is important to maintain the master plans’ technical rigour, it is equally important to demystify them for enabling citizens’ participation at relevant stages. Therefore, the committee strongly recommends a ‘Citizen Outreach Campaign’ for demystifying urban planning.
    • Steps for Enhancing the Role of Private Sector: The report recommends that concerted measures must be taken at multiple levels to strengthen the role of the private sector to improve the overall planning capacity in the country.
    • Revision of Town and Country Planning Acts: Most States have enacted the Town and Country Planning acts, that enable them to prepare and notify master plans for implementation. However, many need to be reviewed and upgraded.
    • Revision of Town and Country Planning Acts: Most States have enacted the Town and Country Planning Acts, that enable them to prepare and notify master plans for implementation. However, many need to be reviewed and upgraded.

    Interesting fact

    India is home to 11% of the total global urban population.

    Government initiatives

    • Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT);
    • Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) – Housing for all (Urban),
    • Smart Cities Mission (SCM),
    • Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM),
    • Heritage City Development and Augmentation Yojana (HRIDAY);
    • Deen Dayal Antyodaya Yojana – National Urban Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NULM).

    Conclusion

    • What is now increasingly understood, is that urban planning and design can be a powerful contributor to the happiness of citizens. The structure and layout of our streets, the availability of green spaces, the possibility of using urban spaces freely, the inclusion of beauty in public space.
    • It is safe to assume that when there are avenues for a community to come together in a pleasant environment, which is accessible to everyone, it can only increase well-being.

    Mains question

    Q. Can urban planning and design change Indian cities to be happy cities? Express your views by addressing the roadblocks in the same.

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Census in India

    censusContext

    • As there is no official reassurance that India will not skip its decadal Census, we can declare that we have a case of the missing census.
    • The census is a very important source of statistics on various indicators.
    • The ability to hold a census peacefully, and not coercively, has been the hallmark of a civilized state and state of affairs.

    What is a census?

    • Census is nothing but a process of collecting, compiling, analyzing, evaluating, publishing and disseminating statistical data regarding the population.
    • It covers demographic, social and economic data and is provided as of a particular date.

    What is the purpose of the census?

    • To collect the information for planning and formulation policies for Central and the State Governments.
    • The census tells us who we are and where we are going as a nation.
    • It helps the government decide how to distribute funds and assistance to states and localities.
    • The census data is widely used by National and International Agencies, scholars, business people, industrialists, and many more.

    censusWhy is the census important?

    • Provides most credible source of information: information on Demography (Population characteristics), Economic Activity, Literacy and Education, Housing & Household Amenities, Urbanisation, Fertility and Mortality, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, Language, Religion, Migration, Disability and many other socio-cultural and demographic data.
    • The delimitation/reservation of Constituencies: Parliamentary/Assembly/Panchayats and other Local Bodies are also done on the basis of the demographic data thrown up by the Census.
    • Administration: Census is the basis for reviewing the country’s progress in the past decade, monitoring the ongoing Schemes of the Government.
    • Planning the future: It provides pathways for planning and resolving problems, and fixing deficiencies. Government goes through analysis over the census data and formulates policies for the future accordingly.
    • Detailed accounts: The best of sample surveys find it impossible to beat a census as It carries the promise of counting each and every Indian. A census is when the state connects to every individual and it will find it hard to hide or duck from the data.
    • Welfare schemes: Identifying the actual beneficiaries, Census is the key to creating identity and affirming it over time .Census data enable neat, inter-temporal comparability.

    Censuses in India so far

    • Census operations started in India long back during the period of the Maurya dynasty.
    • It was systematized during the years 1865 to 1872, though it has been conducted uninterruptedly from the year 1881 being a trustworthy resource of information.
    • India has held its decadal censuses regularly from 1881 to 2011, despite diseases, world wars, Partition and other instances of turmoil only COVID-19 as an exception.
    • Census 2011 is the 15th National Census of the Country.
    • The Census established that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is coming down at a very rapid pace and is well on its way to stabilization.
    • The 2011 Census also dispelled the notion of divorce rate differentials between city and rural India. The urban divorce rate (0.89%) is almost equal to the rural rate (0.82%).

    censusWhy census 2021 has been postponed indefinitely?

    • The Ministry of Home Affairs told the Lok Sabha in August, 2021 that the massive, decennial exercise came to a grinding halt due to the advent of Coid-19 pandemic.

    What was the original timeline of the Census and how is it being delayed?

    • Gazette notification: The Centre’s intent to conduct Census 2021 was notified in the Gazette of India on March 28, 2019. The exercise was to have been conducted in two phases, with the housing Census from April to September 2020 and population enumeration from February 9, 2021.but it did not take place due to the spread of COVID-19.
    • Alternative timeline post-covid-19: In March 2021, the Home Ministry gave a Parliamentary panel a tentative alternative timeline. The fieldwork for the first phase, which would provide data on housing conditions, household amenities and assets possessed by households, is expected during 2021-22, while the fieldwork to count the population and provide data on demography, religion, Scheduled Castes and Tribes (SC/ST), language, literacy and education, economic activity, migration and fertility would be done in 2023-24, it said.
    • Said Provisional data: The Ministry added that provisional data would be released in 2023-24 before the next general elections. Usually, more detailed tables providing village-level data on specific indicators will continue to be released for several years after the key information.

    censusImpact of delay in census 2021

    • Public distribution system:
    • The National Food Security Act, 2013, says that 75% of the rural population and 50% of the rural population are entitled to receive subsidised food grains from the government under the targeted public distribution system (PDS).
    • Under the 2011 Census, India’s population was about 121 crore, hence PDS covered approximately 80 crore people.
    • If we apply projected population of 137crore ,current delay in Census data would continue to deprive more than 10 crore people of subsidised food entitlements, with the biggest gaps in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with 2.8 crore and 1.8 crore projected exclusions respectively.
    • welfare schemes:
    • Although the Government’s intent to use SECC data but failed at budgetary allocation for the projected expansion.
    • Census data may not be used to calculate the beneficiaries of most schemes, but it is critical to policy planning, budgeting and administration.
    • A number of schemes need to use the disaggregated age and fertility indicators to assess effectiveness as demographics change over time.
    • Huge lag in Migration data:
    • From the COVID19 lockdowns it is realized that the Numbers, causes and patterns of migration, which could not be answered using outdated 2011 Census data.
    • The D-tables on migration from the 2011 Census were only released in 2019, so it’s outdated by the time it came out.
    • Apart from the One Nation, One Ration card scheme which now allows for portability of food subsidy entitlements, the migration data is actually not used too much in broader economic policy and planning.

    Why there is a demand for caste census in India?

    • India’s population has since increased three-fold to 1.21 billion in 2011.
    • Experts believe the economic status of the dominant OBC castes have improved in the past 80 years and certain castes have not benefited as much.
    • So, the new caste census is required to measure the economic and social well-being of all castes.

    Other related information Key findings of 2011 census

    • Population:
    • India’s population grew by 17.7 per cent during 2001-11, against 21.5 per cent in the previous decade.
    • India’s total population stands at 1.21 billion, which is 17.7 per cent more than the last decade, and growth of females was higher than that of males.
    • The growth rate of females was 18.3 per cent which is higher than males — 17.1 per cent.
    • Among the major states, highest decadal growth in population has been recorded in Bihar (25.4 per cent) while 14 states and Union Territories have recorded population growth above 20 per cent.
    • Rural and urban population:
    • Urban proportion has gone up from 17.3 per cent in 1951 to 31.2 per cent in 2011.
    • Highest proportion of urban population is in NCT Delhi (97.5 per cent).
    • Top five states in share of urban population are Goa (62.2 per cent), Mizoram (52.1 per cent), Tamil Nadu (48.4 per cent), Kerala (47.7 per cent) and Maharashtra (45.2 per cent).
    • Literacy:
    • Literacy rate in India in 2011 has increased by 8 per cent to 73 per cent in comparison to 64.8 per cent in 2001.
    • Male literacy rate stands at 80.9 per cent, which is 5.6 per cent more than the previous census whereas the female literacy rate stands at 64.6 per cent, increase of 10.9 per cent than 2001.
    • The highest increase took place in Dadra and Nagar Haveli by 18.6 points (from 57.6 per cent to 76.2 per cent), while in Bihar by 14.8 points (from 47.0 per cent to 61.8 per cent), Tripura by 14.0 points (from 73.2 per cent to 87.2 per cent)
    • Density:
    • The density of population in the country has also increased from 325 in 2001 to 382 in 2011 in per sq km.
    • Among the major states, Bihar occupies the first position with a density of 1106, surpassing West Bengal which occupied the first position during 2001.
    • Delhi (11,320) turns out to be the most densely inhabited followed by Chandigarh (9,258), among all states and UT’s, both in 2001 and 2011 Census.
    • The minimum population density works out in Arunachal Pradesh (17) for both 2001 and 2011 Census.
    • Sex ratio:
    • The sex ratio of population in the country in 2011 stands at 940 female against 1000 males, which is 10 per cent more than the last census when the number female per thousand male stood at 933.
    • The number of females per 1000 males in Haryana in 2011 stands at 879 followed by Jammu and Kashmir (889 female) and Punjab (895 females).
    • The other two worst-performing states in terms of skewed sex ration are Uttar Pradesh (912 females) and Bihar (918 females).
    • Five top performing states in terms of sex ratio were Kerala (1,084 females), Tamil Nadu (996), Andhra Pradesh (993), Chhattisgarh (991),Odisha (979).
    • Child population:
    • Child population in the age of 0 to 6 years has seen an increase of 0.4 per cent.
    • There has been a decline of 8 per cent in the sex ratio of 0-6 age group. In 2011, the child sex ratio (0-6) stands at 919 female against 1000 male in comparison to 927 females in 2001.
    • Male child (0-6) population has increased whereas female child population has decreased during 2001-11.
    • The worst performing states in regard to sex ration in the age group of 0 to 6 years are Haryana (834 females), Punjab (846), Jammu and Kashmir (862), Rajasthan (888) and Gujarat (890).
    • The best performing states are Chhattisgarh (969), Kerala (964), Assam (962), West Bengal (956) Jharkhand (948) and Karnataka (948).
    • SC/ST data:
    • According to the Census, Scheduled Castes are notified in 31 states and UTs and Scheduled Tribes in 30 states. There are altogether 1,241 individual ethnic groups notified as SC’s .The number of individual ethnic groups, notified as ST’s is 705.
    • There have been some changes in the list of SC’s/ST’s in states and UT’s during the last decade.
    • The SC population in India now stands at 201.4 million, which is 20 per cent more than the last census. The ST population stands at 104.3 million in 2011 – 23.7 per cent more than 2001.
    • Religious demographics:
    • The religious data on India Census 2011 was released by the Government of India on 25 August 2015.
    • Hindus are 79.8% (966.3 million), while Muslims are 14.23% (172.2 million) in India.
    • For the first time, a “No religion” category was added in the 2011 census. 2.87 million Were classified as people belonging to “No Religion” in India in the 2011 census. – 0.24% of India’s population of 1.21 billion.
    • Median marriage age:
    • The median age increased for men – from 22.6 (2001) to 23.5 (2011) and for women – from 18.2 (2001) to 19.2 (2011).

    Conclusion

    • The census is vital and precious as it is a repository of complete data about the country which is gathered openly, voluntarily, and with the use of public money, making it a social good.
    • The new Census is likely to capture the extent of the observed movement in migration trends towards smaller two-tier towns apart from the large metropolitan centre.
    • It could help answer questions of what kind of healthcare and social services are most needed and where.
    • The Census is about many things. But, fundamentally, it is a way in which the state, by knocking at all doors, displays its desire to connect with the people who ultimately comprise the nation.

     

    Mains Question

    Q. Apart from being used to demarcate constituencies, updated decadal census data is vital to administration. How will the indefinite postponement of census impact the policy formation for the future? Critically Analyse.

     Do follow this link 

    Census 2011 | The basics and summary of important findings

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here) 

  • How lower fertility rate hampers demographic dividend in number of ways

    fertility rateContext

    • Though the Global population, in terms of numbers, has been steadily increasing the average global fertility rate has been consistently declining over the past 70 years.

    What Reports say?

    • Reports suggest that the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030.
    • According to the World Population Prospects 2022, Average number of children per woman in the reproductive age group has declined by 50%, from an average of five children per woman in 1951 to4 children in 2020.

    What is Fertility?

    • Fertility is the quality or state of being fertile.
    • Fertility is the ability to reproduce through normal sexual interaction. In other words it is the natural capacity to conceive a biological child.
    • Fertilitychanges with age. Both males and females become fertile in their teens following puberty.

    fertility rate What is fertility rate?

    • The number of live births in women over a specific length of time.
    • Total fertility rate is the average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime.

    Recent findings

    The newly released World Population Prospectus notes that the global fertility rate fell from three in 1990 to 2.3 in 2021.

    Overview of fertility dynamics

    • Reason: Speeding up the social phenomenon of demographic transition.
    • Poorer countries: speeding up the Transition a lot faster than the richer ones.
    • Britain: Took 130 years to transition from a fertility rate of five per woman in 1800 to two in 1930, whereas
    • South Korea: Took 20 years from 1965 to 1985 to achieve the same. South Korea reporting the lowest fertility rate, 1.05 children per woman.
    • Most advanced economies: Have their fertility rate below the replacement rate of 2.1.
    • Sub-Saharan African countries: Expected to contribute more than half the population growth after 2050 and grow through 2100. For example, Niger a sub Saharan country with highest fertility rate in the world, estimated to be 91 children per woman.
    • What is Demographic transition: is a long-term trend of declining birth and death rate. It is shift from high birth rates to low birth rates in societies with minimal technology, education (especially of women) and economic development and from high death rates to Low death rates in societies with advanced economies and development.

    fertility rate
    Where India Stands

    • According to National Family Health Survey (NFHS), fertility rate falling below the replacement level for the first time to 2.0 in 2021.dropped from 2.2 to 2.0.
    • only five States have a fertility rate above the replacement rate: Bihar (3), Meghalaya (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.4), Jharkhand (2.3), and Manipur (2.2)
    • At the time of Independence, India’s fertility rate was six per woman, and it had taken 25 years to reach five, with the government launching the first ever family planning program in the world in 1952.
    • India’s fertility further declined to four in the 1990s when Kerala became the first State in India to have a fertility rate below replacement l
    • Increased use of contraception, more years of average schooling, better health care, and an increase in the mean marriage age of women are of the reasons behind the steady dip in fertility rate.

    Lower fertility rate as cause and consequences on the economy

    Positive impact:

    • Lower fertility leads to rise in women’s education.
    • Window of time where the ration of working-age population is higher than that of the dependent age groups.
    • This high proportion of people in the workforce boosts income and investment, and higher level of saving.
    • Lower pressure on land, water and other resources and would also contribute to achieving environmental goals.
    • Advanced health care and better nutrition, results in increased life expectancy and productivity of citizens.

     

    Negative impact:

    • Lower fertility impacts women’s education positively, which in turn lowers the fertility of the next generations.
    • While the income rises with better health care and better infrastructure development, Fertility drops.
    • A fall in fertility rate beyond replacement level would have a negative effect on the proportion of the working population, which in turn will affect output in an economy.
    • After the window of demographic dividend, the huge working age population moves to old age, supported by fewer workers.
    • Japan was the first country to experience the implications of falling fertility rates. Country is now facing fiscal challenges to meet rising social security costs.

    Experiments to deal with fertility decline

    Countries across the globe are experimenting with policies to boost fertility.

    • Germany: found success in boosting births through liberal labour laws, allowing more parental leave and benefits.
    • Denmark: offering state-funded IVF for women below 40 years
    • Hungary: Recently nationalized IVF clinics.
    • Poland: Gives out monthly cash payments to parents having more than two children
    • Russia: Makes one-time payment to parents when their second child is born. Reinstituted the Soviet-era ‘Mother Heroine’ title, who bore and raised more than 10 children amounting to almost a one-time payment of 13 lakh.

    Way ahead

    • Need of the hour is to ensure liberal labor reforms, encourage higher female labor force participation, higher focus on nutrition and health.
    • Although India’s working age population will continue to grow for many more decades, it would need to keep an eye on fertility dips.

    Mains Question

    What are Implications of lower fertility rate on the economy? What steps could be taken to deal with fertility decline? Discuss.

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

     

     

     

     

     

  • Old age poverty is getting worse if not addressed soon

    old age povertyContext

    • India’s old age poverty will be big by 2050. Only 2% informal workers have invested in NPS.
    • Poverty is about not having enough money to meet basic needs including food, clothing and shelter. However, poverty is more, much more than just not having enough money.

    Why is age a cause of poverty?

    • The “oldest-old”, aged 80 years or over, are less able to work than younger older persons; are more likely to have spent their savings; and are most in need of age-appropriate health and long-term personal care services.

    How age induces poverty in India?

    • India has no legal provisions for income security of the elderly, making the impacts of ageing far harsher for those who are already economically vulnerable.
    • Deteriorating brain and muscle capacity are largely non-negotiable facts of life, limiting one’s ability to get a job or remain employed.

    Reasons for old age poverty

    old age poverty

    • Dependency: A large section of the senior population in India is still dependent on the joint family set up for their senior care and post-retirement needs, with financial planning for retirement taking a back seat.
    • High population: An increase in the number of seniors in India will reduce the percentage of India’s human resource capital and its ability to drive economic growth.
    • Low insurance penetration: This highlights the inadequacy and underscores the critical need to streamline retirement planning schemes and strengthen the pension programs in the country. There is a lacks of social security framework.

    Data to remember

    People employed in the unorganised sector form around 90 per cent of India’s workforce.

    How to assure wellness and dignity to elders?

    • Income security in the form of monthly pensions either state-assured or employment-linked has been one of the most prevalent modes of assuring continued wellness and dignity against the life-shock of ageing.

    old age povertyAddressing the roadblock

    • Universal pension program: Income security in later years stems from multiple sources such as pensions, insurances (medical and life), Investments. This provides an opportunity for India to create a universal pension program for its 1.3 billion people.
    • Financial incentives: There is a pressing need to promote and facilitate fiscal planning in the early years and supplement it with senior-friendly tax structures and integrated insurance products. Such measures can help provide multiple income options to seniors to help them embrace a lifestyle of their choice.
    • Regulatory mechanism: A regulatory mechanism will set a viable base rate for the interest accrued on senior citizen deposits and ensure market dips don’t affect retirement income and senior-specific saving plans.

    Case study

    • Rwanda has achieved roughly 2 million voluntary micro-pension enrolments (30 per cent of its adult population) within three years by making digital account activation easy and simple for informal workers.

     

    Government intervention to improve elderly wellness

    • A strong and sustained political commitment,
    • A statutory pension sector regulator,
    • A well-designed and low-cost NPS product architecture,
    • Credible and well-regulated NPS intermediaries,
    • Securities market capable of delivering high returns,
    • Near-universal banking and mobile penetration,
    • The India Stack infrastructure with Aadhaar for easy eKYC, and UPI for secure digital payments.

    Conclusion

    • The government, Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) and the NPS industry now need to urgently put their heads together and address the obvious supply and demand side barriers. Every day is precious. After all, pension exclusion is akin to climate change. It needs immediate attention. By 2050, India’s problem of old age poverty will have become way too large, too late, too expensive and entirely irreversible.

    Mains question

    Q. Nearly 400 million young, economically active Indians are slowly walking towards extreme old age poverty in this context how will you explain and analyse the term old age poverty? Suggest some dynamic measures to address this problem.

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Reaping our demographic dividend

    Context

    • India’s biggest strength is its ‘demographic dividend’ and people need to fully leverage it to fast-track the country’s progress in various sectors

    Why in news

    • The 2022 edition of the World Population Prospects (WPP) of the United Nations has projected that India may surpass China as the world’s most populous country next year.
    • The report estimates that India will have a population of 1.66 billion in 2050, ahead of China’s 1.317 billion around that time.

    What is demographic dividend?

    • Demographic dividend, as defined by the United Nations Population Fund, is “the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population is larger than the non-working-age share of the population”.

    Current status for India

    • India entered the demographic dividend opportunity window in 2005-06 and will remain there till 2055-56.
    • This is the period when the working age ratio is equal to or more than 150% and the dependency ratio is equal to or lower than 66.7%, generally taken as the cut-off for the demographic dividend window.

    How India can leverage this dividend

    (1) Investment in right direction

    • Investments in human and physical infrastructure will need to be scaled up dramatically to promote entrepreneurship and create jobs.
    • Investment in education is crucial for ensuring that working-age people are prepared for the demands of the economy.
    • Increase spending on health
    • Increase investments in Research and Development

    (2) Absorption of labour into productive employment

    • Promote entrepreneurship and job creation
    • Service sector like tourism, logistics should be promoted
    • Skill development of the working-age population so that they can turn out to be productive for the country’s economy

    Challenges in reaping this

    • Drastic quality improvement: India’s challenge is to create conditions for faster growth of productive jobs outside of agriculture, especially in the organized manufacturing and in services.
    • Severe shortages: India currently faces a severe shortage of well trained, skilled workers. Large sections of the educated workforce have little or no job skills, making them largely Unemployable.
    • Dismal health sector: A closer look implies various factors such as poor health which although obvious, play a major role in the poor performance of working population.
    • Socio economic dimensions: The status of institutions in India regarding caste discrimination, gender inequalities, widening income gap between the rich and the poor, religious differences, inefficient and slow legal system- all contribute to the poor standard of living of the masses.

    Government steps

    • National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC): incorporated on 31st July, 2008, is a first-of-its-kind Public Private Partnership (PPP) in India set up to facilitate the development and upgrading of the skills of the growing Indian workforce through skill training programs.
    • National Skill Development Agency: Currently, skill development efforts are spread across approximately20 separate ministries, 35 State Governments and Union Territories and the private sector.
    • National Skill Certification and Money Reward Scheme: encouragement is given for skill development for youth by providing monetary rewards for successful completion of approved training programs.

    Way forward

    • Strategies exist to exploit the demographic window of opportunity that India has today, but they need to be adopted and implemented.
    • The dreams of huge income flow and resultant economic growth due to demographic dividend could be realized only when we inculcate the required skills in the work force to make it as competent as its counterparts in the developed world.

    Important data for mains

    • India’s working-age population has numerically outstripped its non-working age population.
    • India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has declined from 2.2 in 2015-16 to 2.0 in 2019-21, indicating the significant progress of population control measures, revealed the report of the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5).
    • The TFR is the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime.

    Mains question

    Q. Do you think the right has come that India should adopt moving away policy from population control towards reaping its demographic dividends? Critically examine.

  • What are Foreigners’ Tribunals?

    The Guwahati High Court has asked the Centre and the Assam government to collectively decide whether or not the ministerial staff for 200 additional Foreigners’ Tribunals (FT) would be appointed.

    Do you know?

    The Guwahati High Court has largest jurisdiction in terms of states, with its area covering the states of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, and Mizoram.

    What is Foreigners Tribunal?

    • The foreigners tribunals are quasi-judicial bodies, unique to Assam, to determine if a person staying illegally is a “foreigner” or not.
    • With Assam’s NRC as the backdrop, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has laid out specific guidelines to detect, detain and deport foreign nationals staying illegally across the country.
    • The MHA has amended the Foreigners (Tribunals) Order, 1964, and has empowered district magistrates in all States and UTs to set up tribunals to decide whether a person staying illegally in India is a foreigner or not.
    • Earlier, such powers to constitute tribunals vested with the Centre only.

    Why need such tribunals?

    • In other parts, once a ‘foreigner’ has been apprehended by the police for staying illegally, he or she is produced before the local court under the Passport Act, 1920, or the Foreigners Act, 1946.
    • The punishment ranges from imprisonment of three months to eight years.
    • Once the accused have completed the sentence, the court orders their deportation, and they are moved to detention centres till the country of origin accepts them.

    What was the last amendment?

    • The 1964 order on Constitution of Tribunals said: “The Central Government may by order, refer the question as to whether a person is not a foreigner within meaning of the Foreigners Act, 1946 to a Tribunal to be constituted for the purpose.
    • The amended order issued says – “for words Central Government may,’ the words ‘the Central Government or the State Government or the UT administration or the District Collector or the District Magistrate may’ shall be substituted.”

    Impact of the Amendment

    • The amended Foreigners (Tribunal) Order, 2019 also empowers individuals to approach the Tribunals.
    • Earlier only the State administration could move the Tribunal against a suspect, but with the final NRC about to be published and to give adequate opportunity to those not included, this has been done.
    • If a person doesn’t find his or her name in the final list, they could move the Tribunal.
    • The amended order also allows District Magistrates to refer individuals who haven’t filed claims against their exclusion from NRC to the Tribunals to decide if they are foreigners or not.
    • Opportunity will also be given to those who haven’t filed claims by referring their cases to the Tribunals.
    • Fresh summons will be issued to them to prove their citizenship.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Replacement Level Fertility achieved in India

    India has achieved replacement level fertility, with 31 States and UTs reaching a Total Fertility Rate (an average number of children per woman) of 2.1 or less, Union Minister of State for Health and Family Welfare has informed Parliament.

    What is Replacement Level Fertility?

    • Replacement level fertility is the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next.
    • In simpler terms, it denotes the fertility number required to maintain the same population number of a country over a given period of time.
    • In developed countries, replacement level fertility can be taken as requiring an average of 2.1 children per woman.
    • In countries with high infant and child mortality rates, however, the average number of births may need to be much higher.
    • RLF will lead to zero population growth only if mortality rates remain constant and migration has no effect.

    Benefits of achieving RLF

    • RLF helps ensure greater food security.
    • The reduced demand for food would in turn lessen agri- culture’s impact on the environment.
    • It would also likely lead to economic benefits through a “demographic dividend.”
    • Finally, achieving replacement level fertility would yield significant social benefits―especially for women.

    How did India achieve this?

    • Between 2012 and 2020, the country added more than 1.5 crore additional users for modern contraceptives, thereby increasing their use substantially.
    • India has witnessed a paradigm shift from the concept of population control to population stabilisation to interventions being embedded toward ensuring harmony of continuum care.

    Way forward

    • Although India has achieved replacement level fertility, there is still a significant population in the reproductive age group that must remain at the centre of our intervention efforts.
    • India’s focus has traditionally been on the supply side, the providers and delivery systems but now it’s time to focus on the demand side which includes family, community and society.
    • Significant change is possible with this focus, instead of an incremental change.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • United Nations’ World Population Prospects (WPP)

    The 2022 edition of the United Nations’ World Population Prospects (WPP) was released.

    Why in news?

    • India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023.

    What is the World Population Prospects?

    • The Population Division of the UN has been publishing the WPP in a biennial cycle since 1951.
    • Each revision of the WPP provides a historical time series of population indicators starting in 1950.
    • It does so by taking into account newly released national data to revise estimates of past trends in fertility, mortality or international migration.

    Main takeaways for the global population

    (1) Slow pace of growth

    • The world’s population continues to grow, but the pace of growth is slowing down.
    • The global population is expected to grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100.
    • In 2020, the global growth rate fell under 1% per year for the first time since 1950.

    (2) Region-wise differential

    • Rates of population growth vary significantly across countries and regions.
    • More than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries- Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
    • Disparate growth rates among the world’s largest countries will re-order their ranking by size.

    (3) Ageing population

    • The population of older persons is increasing both in numbers and as a share of the total.
    • The share of the global population aged 65 years or above is projected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050.
    • The report suggests measures for ageing population by improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems and by establishing universal health care and long-term care systems.

    (4) Decline in fertility rate

    • A sustained drop in fertility has led to an increased concentration of the population at working ages (between 25 and 64 years), creating an opportunity for accelerated economic growth per capita.
    • This shift in the age distribution provides a time-bound opportunity for accelerated economic growth known as the “demographic dividend”.

    (5) International migration

    • This is having important impacts on population trends for some countries.
    • For high-income countries between 2000 and 2020, the contribution of international migration to population growth (net inflow of 80.5 million) exceeded the balance of births over deaths (66.2 million).
    • Over the next few decades, migration will be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries.
    • In many of these countries, the outflows were due to temporary labour movements, such as for Pakistan (net flow of -16.5 million), India (-3.5 million), Bangladesh (-2.9 million), Nepal (-1.6 million) etc.

    How reliable is the UN projection, and how do they compare with India’s Census?

    • In India, of course, the Registrar General comes out with a population projection based on the Census.
    • The last such projection was released in 2019 and it was based on Census 2011.
    • The Census projection is slightly lower than the UN projection.
    • Still UN projection is widely acknowledged across the world

    What is the significance of India overtaking China?

    • That India would overtake China has been known for a while.
    • Moreover, in the past, when the world population was still at 5-billion or 6-billion levels, there was a concern about overcrowding.
    • Those concerns no longer exist because the global population is already 8 billion and several countries (including India) have achieved a replacement rate of fertility.
    • The concern now is not about the absolute numbers — India’s population is already 1.4 billion and may go up to 1.6 billion before declining.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Literacy and delivery of services, not religion, influences fertility

    Context

    The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 5 report that was awaited for nearly six months is finally out. And it provides a heartening outlook.

    About NHFS

    • Started in 1992-93, it has culminated in the fifth round 2019-21.
    • The NFHS is a large, multi-round survey that, inter alia, provides information on fertility, infant and child mortality, the practice of family planning, reproductive health, nutrition, anaemia, quality and utilisation of health and family planning services.
    • The surveys provide essential data needed by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and other agencies for policy and programme purposes.
    • The Ministry assigned the nodal responsibility for the task to the International Institute for Population Sciences(IIPS), Mumbai.
    • Several international agencies are involved in providing technical and financial assistance, mainly USAID, DFID, UNICEF, and UNFPA.

    Replacement rate achieved

    • Replacement rate achieved: The report shows that India has finally achieved the replacement rate of 2.1TFR (Total Fertility Rate is the total number of children a woman will bear in her lifetime).
    • In fact, it has gone below the mark to 2.0.
    • There are, of course, large interstate variations.
    • The lagging states are UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Manipur and Meghalaya.
    • Significantly, there were four states which were keeping the figures poor, namely, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.
    • Two states, Rajasthan and MP, have struggled to get out of this group, while Jharkhand and the two northeastern states have replaced them.
    • UP and Bihar because of their sheer size are pulling down the national average.
    • Rajasthan and MP have reached the TFR of 2, which shows the success of their efforts.

    Influencing factors

    • It is not religion as commonly propounded but literacy, especially of girls, income and delivery of family planning, and health services.
    • 1] Delivery of services: The figures would have been even better if all those who have been made aware of the benefits of family planning had received the services they desire.
    • Making people informed of the need and methods of family planning and motivating them to adopt family planning is difficult enough.
    •  Having achieved the difficult task, we are not able to provide the services communities need — the “unmet need” — which is still very high at 9.4 per cent.
    • If we focus on this issue in a mission mode, the family planning performance will dramatically improve.
    • 2] Male attitude towards family planning: They tend to put the onus for birth control on women.
    • As many as 35 per cent men believe that using contraceptives is a woman’s responsibility. They ignore the fact that male vasectomy is a much simpler procedure than female tubectomy.
    • 3] Acceptance of family planning:  Muslim acceptance of family planning has continued through the five surveys spread over three decades at a rate faster than all other communities.
    • Though birth control practice among Muslims is still the least – 47.4 per cent (up from 45 per cent in NFHS-4).
    • Other communities — for example, Hindus — are not far behind with 58 per cent (up from 56 per cent).
    • This means that 42 per cent of the 80 per cent of the population are not practising family planning.
    • Education:  Women who have not attended school have 2.8 TFR as against 1.8 for those who have completed class XII.
    • Poverty: Similar gap of figure one is visible in the context of poverty with the poorest segment having higher TFR than the richest.

    Conclusion

    The time has come to leave politics behind and work together for achieving the goals set by National Population Policy 2000. Instead of misleading narratives, we need to address the real determinants of fertility behaviour – literacy, income generation and improvement of health and family planning services.

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)