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A number of outside powers have entrenched themselves in Central Asia, which is a zone of interest to India. Discuss the implications, in this context, of India’s joining the Ashgabat Agreement, 2018.

The region of Central Asia is located in the heart of Eurasia and denoted as Heartland by Helford Mackinder. It connects Europe, West Asia, South Asia, and Russia, and holds vast reserves of energy and minerals.

Outside Powers Entrenched in Central Asia

China- Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China-Central Asia-West Asia Corridor

Russia through Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

United States- involvement in Afghanistan

India – through Bilateral relations and SCO. Eg- PM visited all 5 CA Republics

Central Asia as a Zone of Interest to India

Geopolitical – Area of Great Game.

Energy Security- Central Asia possesses abundant oil, gas, and uranium reserves vital for India’s growing energy needs (e.g., TAPI gas pipeline).

Connectivity and Trade- Provides a gateway to Eurasia and Europe, helping India bypass Pakistan. Eg- INSTC

Strategic Balancing- counter China’s strategic dominance

Cultural-Historical Linkages- Shared Silk Road heritage, Buddhism, and Sufi culture

The Ashgabat Agreement is a multilateral transport and transit pact aimed at creating an International Transport and Transit Corridor (ITTC) between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf.

Positive Implications of India’s Joining

Enhanced Connectivity via the Persian Gulf and Iran’s Chabahar Port, complementing the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

Energy and Economic Integration- Opens efficient trade routes for energy imports, minerals, and agricultural goods.

Reduces India’s dependence on traditional routes blocked by Pakistan; provides alternative trade corridors aligned with its “Connect Central Asia Policy.”

Balancing China’s BRI and enhancing India’s geo-economic presence.

Regional Cooperation- Deepens engagement with Iran, Oman, and Central Asian republics.

Challenges

Geopolitical Constraints- US sanctions on Iran threaten India’s ability to operationalize corridors through Chabahar and Iran-Turkmenistan routes.

Security Instability- Afghanistan’s volatility disrupts regional connectivity and supply chains.

China’s deep pocket diplomacy limits India’s economic space and bargaining power.

India’s delivery Deficit – Eg- Delay in INSTC

Compared to Russia and China, India’s economic and physical presence remains limited

Agreement reinforces India’s “Connect Central Asia” and “Act West” policies.