The AUKUS alliance, launched in 2021, is a security partnership between Australia, the UK, and the US aimed at countering China’s assertiveness. It reflects a new phase of minilateralism.
Strength and Impact of AUKUS in countering China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region
Nuclear Submarine Pact: Enables Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, enhancing undersea deterrence against China.
Advanced Technology Sharing: Cooperation in AI, cyber warfare, quantum computing, and hypersonic weapons.
Military Integration: Strengthens interoperability and intelligence sharing through Five Eyes alignment.
Strategic Geography: Expands Western military reach across the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.
Deterrence Architecture: Reinforces U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy and balances China’s maritime expansion.
A stronger Australia aligns with India’s interest to counter China’s ‘String of Pearls’ strategy in the Indian Ocean.
AUKUS Superseding Existing Partnerships
May undermine the QUAD’s balanced agenda, tilting regional focus toward militarization.
Weakens ASEAN centrality, creating apprehensions about regional autonomy.
Creates trust deficit with France (after Australia canceled its French submarine deal).
It may weaken the Five Eyes alliance – Eg- New Zealand has shown displeasure over AUKUS.
Other Issues with AUKUS
Risk of nuclear proliferation due to the transfer of nuclear submarine technology to a non-nuclear weapon state.
Exclusionary alliance, leaving out India, Japan, and ASEAN nations.
Potential arms race between US-led and China-Russia blocs.
Perception of ‘Anglosphere dominance’, limiting inclusivity in regional security frameworks.
China–Russia axis may strengthen – China called it as “wrong and dangerous path”
Way Forward
Align with Quad and ASEAN-led mechanisms to ensure synergy.
Inclusive Security Architecture by incorporating voices from South and Southeast Asia.
Confidence-Building Measures among China, ASEAN, and other regional actors to avoid escalation.
AUKUS marks the reemergence of power geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific. It must evolve through consultation and cooperation to ensure that it complements rather than fragments the Indo-Pacific strategic order.